Buffalo Sabres Avoid Arbitration With Victor Olofsson
One of the most intriguing arbitration cases scheduled for the next few days was Victor Olofsson, the Buffalo Sabres sniper who has scored 22 goals and 46 points in his 60-game NHL career. Despite being a relative newcomer to the NHL, Olofsson is already 25 and is a lot closer to unrestricted free agency than some of his rookie counterparts. His hearing was scheduled for November 4, but it appears as though it will not be necessary. The Sabres have signed Olofsson to a two-year contract that carries an average annual value of $3.05MM. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that it will pay Olofsson $2.85MM in 2020-21 and $3.25MM in 2021-22.
Not only does a two-year deal limit the cap hit and provides a very real chance for the Sabres to receive excess value out of the young forward, but it also leaves him a restricted free agent in 2022. While he has already turned 25, Olofsson’s birthday comes after the normal start of free agency meaning this deal does not walk him right to the UFA market. At its expiry, the two sides will have a chance to work out a long-term deal should his outstanding goal production continue.
Even though he has real 30-goal potential, there are some things to consider about Olofsson’s production so far. Only nine of his 22 career goals have come at even-strength, and this year he scored on 15.7% of his shots. If used properly he can be a game-changing presence on the powerplay, but he has still yet to prove that he can jump over the boards and produce at even-strength on a regular basis.
Still, there’s a lot to like about a deal that pays him about half of what the Sabres owe Kyle Okposo in each of the next three seasons, or what they could have found on the free agent market. Olofsson will join a top-six that suddenly looks quite impressive, after the offseason additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. The team also has top prospect Dylan Cozens coming and still have Jack Eichel in the middle of it all, providing all-world production.
At the end of this deal, Olofsson will be arbitration-eligible once again and could potentially get himself to unrestricted free agency by taking that one-year award. He’ll also be owed a hefty qualifying offer of $3.25MM, something he could fall back on if his production dips but the Sabres still want to keep him around.
Because this was their final arbitration case, Buffalo will now receive a short buyout window starting two days from now.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Free Agent Profile: Erik Haula
Despite the excitement of the free-agent flurry that started off the 2020 offseason, things have calmed down now quite a bit and yet there remain a number of free agents out there for teams to pick up. Yet with little cap room remaining for most the playoff hopefuls, teams are being extra cautious about paying out too much to free agents. especially if they are coming off a down season. That perfectly explains the situation for free-agent center Erik Haula, who has now found himself looking for a fourth team in just two-plus seasons and is coming off a 12-goal campaign last year.
The 29-year-old will be hitting 30 during the 2020-21 season and has dealt with numerous injuries, including a gruesome leg injury that held him to just 15 games in 2018-19. However, that hasn’t stopped teams from showing interest in the center, one of the few potential impact centers remaining on the free-agent market, who was ranked 16th in our PHR Top-50 Free Agents. If healthy, he has the potential to fill a second-line center role or be a top third-line option in the middle. He has the potential to put up goals, scoring 29 goals in Vegas’ inaugural season in 2017-18.
Despite Vegas’ love for Haula, the team even had cap issues after their second season and were forced to send Haula to the Carolina Hurricanes to free up some cap room. Haula signed a three-year, $8.25MM contract ($2.75MM AAV) with Vegas as part of a deal for the Golden Knights to select him in the expansion draft from Minnesota and looked like a significant find after the first year. The injury held up that outlook for the next season and Carolina was hoping to recapture some of that offensive magic last season. Instead, he struggled through more knee injuries on and off and only appeared in 41 games with 12 goals before the Hurricanes packaged him to Florida for Vincent Trocheck. Haula scored no goals in seven games for the Panthers before the team’s season ended.
However in the right system and with plenty of extra time to allow his knee to fully mend, Haula could fill a significant hole in a team’s middle and if everything goes right, could thrive there.
Potential Suitors
Not surprisingly, Haula has received significant interest from at least 10-12 teams, yet no deal has been struck. The forward is likely looking for a potential long-term deal, deals that aren’t really offered to players right now as several free agents have had to ink one-year deals in hopes that the 2021 offseason may prove to be more lucrative and hopes that COVID-19 may settle down in a year.
Perhaps one of the most obvious suitors would be returning to the one team where he had the most success. The Golden Knights might be a perfect fit for Haula as the team was forced to send off center Paul Stastny to Winnipeg to save cap room and with Cody Glass‘ rookie season having also been interrupted by injury, there is a clear opening for a No. 2 center in the system. Of course, the team is so tight against the cap that the team doesn’t even have the money for a minimum-salaried deal without clearing more cap room, which will be difficult. The team has already made it clear they will not be moving now back-up goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, which means they will be spending $12MM on their goalies this coming year.
Rumors that the Pittsburgh Penguins could be looking for a third-line center to fill in some depth for another Stanley Cup run with their veteran squad. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a clear-cut third or fourth-line center, so Haula would be a big addition to a team that needs to get more scoring from their bottom-six. Of course, the team must look at their cap issues as well. Other teams such as the New Jersey Devils and the Vancouver Canucks have come up although there are likely many others, but only the Devils have the cap room to easily bring him in.
Projected Contract
PHR initially projected Haula to receive a three-year, $11.25MM deal, although that number now looks quite high considering some of the contracts that other players have received in the last week or so. Players ranked much higher, such as Evgenii Dadonov and Tyler Toffoli each had to settle for less than they were hoping for. Dadonov received three years and $15MM from Ottawa, while Toffoli signed a four-year deal at $17MM with the Montreal Canadiens.
Considering that Haula is coming off two injury-plagued and disappointing offensive seasons, it doesn’t seem likely that he can easily pry a long-term deal away from any team and may have to sign a one-year “prove it deal,” except for the fact that his services as a center could give him slightly more leverage than most free agents remaining on the market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NHL’s Free Agent Interview Period Could Return
As if the 2020 off-season wasn’t already going to be strange, what with the October start date and flat salary cap, it also marked a new age in free agency negotiations with the removal of the free agent interview period. Well, it seems this new age may be short-lived. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that the NHL’s general managers have already discussed bringing back the interview period, with 48- and 72-hour periods being considered. Such a reinstatement would need to be approved by the NHLPA as well, as it is a collectively-bargained policy.
The interview period, also known as “legal tampering”, occurs just prior to the new league year beginning and the opening of free agency (which until this year has been July 1). It is a period of time in which teams can contact unrestricted free agents and their representation to discuss potential contract terms before the market officially opens. This policy, agreed upon in the previous CBA, led to a rush of contracts when the market opened, implying that teams and UFA’s had not only discussed contract terms, but agreed in principle. Upset that the interview period was being abused, the two sides eliminated the construct when the new CBA was ratified back in July.
Just a few months later, the teams want it back. This off-season has been much slower than usual, going all the way back to the first day the market opened. Being unable to discuss contract terms has undoubtedly impacted GM’s abilities to read market value and plan accordingly. The result has been a number of notable free agents – including two top-10 and 14 top-50 UFA’s per PHR – remaining unsigned several weeks into free agency.
Especially while dealing with the flat cap, this unpredictable market has helped no one. It is understandable why the teams would like it back and it is safe to assume that the players will agree. The interview period structure could certainly stand to be a bit stricter and perhaps a more limited time frame would also help avoid abuse, but a cold opening to free agency seems unsustainable moving forward.
Free Agent Profile: Mikael Granlund
There are just two free agents left unsigned among the top ten of PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s. One of them, Mike Hoffman, has been a fixture on the rumor mill since the market opened, with as much discussion and speculation as anyone. The other is Mikael Granlund and things have been stunningly quiet surrounding the two-time 60+ point player.
Granlund, 28, is relatively young for a traditional UFA and has over 500 NHL games to his credit, recording over 100 career goals and over 350 career points. He is a proven asset on the power play and penalty kill, an efficient shooter, a strong possession player, and can play major minutes. Granlund may not be a household name, but he has been everything one would expect from a first-round draft pick. So why the apparent lack of interest?
It seems potential NHL suitors may be focused more on Granlund’s recent play rather than looking at the big picture. The versatile forward was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline in 2019. Since that time, his scoring rate dropped from .69 to .44 points per game. That is quite the decline and not what any impending free agent wants to see, but should it really be the death knell for Granlund’s prospects on the open market? In less than a season and a half in Nashville, Granlund played for two different head coaches with the Predators. He did not fit the system of former bench boss Peter Laviolette, who held the job through the end of 2018-19 and into early January of this past season. During that time, Granlund’s usage was severely limited compared to his time in Minnesota, both in overall ice time and special teams role. During that time his scoring suffered and he simply did not look like the same player. Once John Hynes took over, Granlund’s play recovered in a big way. He saw an uptick in ice time, began shooting more often and scoring more as a result, and finally won back a consistent power play role. Granlund even tied a career best in possession with a 52.4 Corsi For %.
Granlund’s play in the latter half of this past season more closely resembles his time with the Wild. A reliable top-six forward, Granlund was a pivotal player for Minnesota for over five years after taking on a full-time role at just 21. He topped 20 goals twice and 50 points three times, never finishing with less than 39 points. He also proved himself to be a durable player, missing only nine total games over his final four seasons with the team while skating over 18 minutes per game each year. He also adapted to a move from center to wing without missing a beat and still proved to be a capable pivot when needed.
In the right system, Granlund can still be the player he was in Minnesota and showed flashes of down the stretch this past year, rather than the one who struggled after moving to Nashville. That is why the lack of interest – at least based on close to nothing coming out the rumor mill – remains such a mystery.
Potential Suitors
Unfortunately for Granlund, one of the teams that could most use a player of his ability and has the cap space to sign him is none other than the Nashville Predators. Although Granlund did perform better once Hynes took over, it seems unlikely that he would be open to a return after his experience with the club was sour overall.
The Boston Bruins are also known to be looking for a forward. Granlund would have the opportunity to play with former Minnesota teammate Charlie Coyle and former Nashville teammate Craig Smith on a line that could have instant chemistry. However, the Bruins are lacking in cap space with Jake DeBrusk also in need of a new deal, so one of those two players would need to take a significant discount.
Perhaps the best fit is with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus moved out considerable salary in hopes of landing at least one big time free agent forward, but so far have merely swapped Josh Anderson for Max Domi and signed aging Mikko Koivu, another former Granlund teammate. The team needs to make another splash and inject some more skill into their forward corps and Granlund makes a lot of sense.
By all accounts, the Predators, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are the finalists to sign the aforementioned Hoffman, who PHR has ranked ahead of Granlund among available UFA’s. At least one of these teams seems likely to turn to Granlund when they miss out on Hoffman, which may explain the lack of noise surrounding Granlund while the Hoffman sweepstakes continues.
If it is not one of these three, a rebuilding club like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings or New Jersey Devils makes sense on a one-year “show me” deal. Don’t rule out a return to Minnesota, where Granlund found immense success, but only if the Wild can open up some space.
Projected Contract
PHR initially projected Granlund to land a four-year $20MM deal in free agency and even that $5MM AAV seemed low for a player nearly guaranteed to put up 50+ points for many years still to come. However, the flat cap has had an even bigger impact than anyone imagined on free agent deals and the odds of Granlund getting that term and value seems slim. This rings especially true after Tyler Toffoli and Evgenii Dadonov, both ranked ahead of Granlund, signed such measly deals recently. Based on those two contracts, Granlund is likely looking at an AAV closer to $4MM on a short-term deal.
While Granlund’s slip in production in 2019-20 landed him behind Dadonov and Toffoli in our rankings, he has a more proven history of NHL success than either one and would stand a better chance of making the most of a one-year deal and cashing in as a free agent again next summer. Especially given the forthcoming Expansions Draft next summer, a one-year deal has added value for interested teams. Whether he ultimately signs with a playoff hopeful or a rebuild, a one-year, $4MM contract sounds about right for Granlund at this point – and stands to be an incredible bargain for whoever signs it.
The Thinned-Out Free Agent Goalie Market
This has been one of the more interesting free agent classes in recent years. We’re two weeks in and several notable forwards and quality defensemen are still available. That’s not normal in a typical free agent year where most of the top players are gobbled up within the first 72 hours.
That hasn’t been the case when it comes to goaltenders, however. Most of the movement there has typically been done in the first couple of days and this year was no exception as Jacob Markstrom, Braden Holtby, Cam Talbot, Corey Crawford, and Thomas Greiss were among those to find new homes while Anton Khudobin and Mike Smith stayed put. All of a sudden, the market looks pretty thin. Here is an overview of what’s left at that position among goalies with at least 10 NHL appearances last season.
Craig Anderson – The 39-year-old last had above-average numbers back in 2016-17 and since then, he has posted a .901 SV% with a 3.37 GAA. While there is some cause for optimism that those numbers could improve in front of a better team than what Ottawa had, there is still some uncertainly in what he has left on the table.
Jimmy Howard – He’s only a year removed from being a starter but what a dreadful year it was in 2019-20. He won just two of his 27 starts with a dreadful .882 SV% and a 4.20 GAA. Yes, Detroit had a brutal season but Jonathan Bernier managed to perform a lot better behind the same team. The 36-year-old said last month that he intends to keep playing but there hasn’t been much interest so far. Even if he could rebound to the numbers from his previous two seasons though, Howard could provide a bit of upside as a backup.
Michael Hutchinson – He made 11 mostly forgettable starts for Toronto before being farmed out but a late-season trade to Colorado certainly boosted his stock. Hutchinson wound up making four playoff appearances (including three starts) while Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz went down due to injuries and did well enough to help force a seventh game against eventual conference champion Dallas. The 30-year-old may not land a number two spot but as an insurance third-stringer (like Aaron Dell in Toronto), there should be a good fit for him.
Ryan Miller – With a .907 SV% last year, Miller’s performance was still decent as far as backup goalies go but at 40, there are going to be questions about how much longer he can keep playing. Assuming Anaheim decides they’re okay with having him back up John Gibson for another year, there’s a landing spot for Miller for next season but otherwise, he may have some challenges finding a contract.
(Cory Schneider is on this list as well and remains unsigned but is believed to be finalizing a deal with the Islanders.)
Garret Sparks is the only other UFA goalie to make at least one NHL appearance last season but he isn’t going to contend for an NHL backup position and will likely have to settle for a number three role once again.
While there clearly aren’t many options left, there aren’t a lot of vacancies left to fill either. Let’s look at some of the openings.
NHL Backup
Anaheim: As long as Miller’s spot hasn’t been filled, this is one team where one of the above netminders should land. Anthony Stolarz is in the system but he is better off as a third-string option.
Chicago: Publicly, the team has committed to using two of Malcolm Subban, Collin Delia, or Kevin Lankinen to comprise their goalie tandem. If an opportunity presented itself for improvement though, they could change course but none of the remaining free agents necessarily constitute an upgrade.
Pittsburgh: With them considering Marc-Andre Fleury (with some heavy salary retention) at one point before Vegas pledged to keep him, GM Jim Rutherford is at least open to the idea of upgrading on Casey DeSmith. But again, there isn’t a free agent that’s head and shoulders above what DeSmith can provide.
St. Louis: They could go in either this category or the one below it as GM Doug Armstrong has suggested that they’ll bring in a veteran to serve as some insurance for rookie Ville Husso who is expected to be Jordan Binnington’s backup next season.
AHL Openings
Buffalo: The Sabres have Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen who should be in line for more AHL action next season but if they want both him and Jonas Johansson starting, adding another netminder to the mix would make some sense.
Vancouver: Michael DiPietro should receive the bulk of the work but the Canucks may want a veteran to play behind him that could be recalled if one of Holtby or Thatcher Demko is injured so as to ensure DiPietro’s development doesn’t get stalled.
(Carolina would have been in this mix but they took themselves out of the market with their recent signing of Antoine Bibeau.)
A handful of other teams may opt to make a move for insurance purposes and when training camp rolls around and there are some inevitable injuries, there could be some other moves made at that time as well.
It’s often suggested that free agent goaltending is a lot like musical chairs. Two weeks into the market, the chairs are almost all gone and the music is seemingly about to stop.
Erik Haula Receiving Considerable Interest
Erik Haula is one of the more intriguing remaining free agents on the open market. He’s not far removed from a 29-goal, 55-point campaign back in 2017-18 and as a center, he plays a position that’s typically in short supply and high demand. However, he’s among those that are still in need of a new contract. It doesn’t appear to be from a lack of interest as Haula’s agent Jay Grossman told Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription link) that 10-12 teams have shown interest in the 29-year-old.
Haula has dealt with knee injuries in each of the last two seasons which limited him to just 15 games in 2018-19 and 48 this past season between Carolina and Florida. He was actually relatively productive in this abbreviated campaign with 12 goals and 12 assists, a 41-point pace over a full schedule. While that isn’t top-line production, he’d fit as a second pivot for some teams, especially since he’s above average on the draw and can contribute on the power play.
So why is he still unsigned? Haula is running into a similar situation as some of the other notable players still without a deal as the best fits may be with teams that simply don’t have the cap space needed to sign him. Freeing up money to create room is something that in normal times isn’t necessarily that difficult but with so many teams tight to the Upper Limit or operating under a more restrictive budget for next season, there aren’t many opportunities to make a move like that. On top of that, finding the right term is proving to be challenging for quite a few free agents and taking a one-year deal to hit the market again next offseason isn’t a viable strategy for everyone.
Given his talent and the fact that he plays a premium position (which helped him earn the 16th ranking in our Top 50 UFAs), it’s only a matter of time before Haula gets signed. But as many others in his situation have found out, the lack of money in the market is proving to be a significant challenge to overcome.
Nashville Predators Still Considering Free Agents
The Nashville Predators made huge moves in the days preceding free agency, moving out Nick Bonino to the Minnesota Wild and buying out the remaining four years of Kyle Turris‘ contract. That freed up more than $8MM for the team, and since then they’ve only used a small portion of it. Mark Borowiecki, Nick Cousins and Matt Benning were all brought in as depth options, but the Predators still haven’t made the big splash that was expected.
Today, when speaking with the media including Adam Vingan of The Athletic, Predators GM David Poile explained that that may not be done yet:
I think we’re open and we have cap space. I think we’re going to look for opportunities.
Unlike normal years where free agency is essentially finished just a few days after it begins, there are still real difference-makers available right now. Three of our top-10 ranked unrestricted free agents are still unsigned, though Mikael Granlund is one of them and likely isn’t making a return to Nashville. The other two, Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov, are both high-powered offensive weapons that could change the look of the Predators upfront. Poile was quick to point out today that Nashville is one of only a handful of teams in the league that can already boast four 30-goal scorers, though none of the players he is referring to actually did that in 2019-20.
Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen still make up the core of the forward group for Nashville, but all of them significantly trailed defenseman Roman Josi in points this season. In fact, only Forsberg scored more goals than the Norris winner with 21, the team’s only player to crack the 20-goal threshold. Even in the shortened season, Hoffman and Dadonov meanwhile scored 29 and 25 respectively and were 70-point players as recently as 2018-19.
There are more than just those two available, meaning the Predators have much to choose from over the next few days and weeks. With nearly $13MM in cap space and only Luke Kunin to sign among notable restricted free agents, there is also plenty of room to fit in more than one player if necessary.
Joe Thornton Linked To Toronto Maple Leafs
Oct 14: Not that Johnston and Mirtle needed backup, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet and Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic have both now reported interest between the Maple Leafs and Thornton. Friedman notes that several core players for Toronto have pitched the veteran forward, while LeBrun tweets that both head coach Sheldon Keefe and GM Kyle Dubas have spoken with him.
Oct 13: Once again, smoke is building around Joe Thornton and the Toronto Maple Leafs. After the veteran forward was linked to the team in the 2017 offseason (when teammate Patrick Marleau signed a three-year deal with Toronto), there has been a lingering notion that he could consider a return to Ontario at some point.
On a recent Steve Dangle Podcast, Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston implied that the two sides have had mutual interest, and now James Mirtle of The Athletic has written something similar:
These talks are in the beginning stages. It sounds like there’s some mutual interest. The Leafs, as they did during free agency in 2017, have let Thornton know he’s wanted. And Thornton is listening, from his offseason home in Switzerland, where he’s been training with a top-league club.
For a while, there has been a belief that Thornton would take his time with any decision on his NHL future. The 2020-21 season is still completely shrouded in uncertainty, with no concrete date for the start of training camp or the regular season. But if the 41-year-old center does want to come back, it’s no longer a slam dunk that he will be returning to the San Jose Sharks.
While the Sharks did just bring back Marleau to chase Gordie Howe‘s games played record and are obviously still a contender should Thornton return, the situation feels different this summer. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic tweeted as much earlier this month, saying that though it felt inevitable that Thornton would return to the Sharks when he became a free agent in 2019, he has “gotten no indications that he’s a sure thing to return” this time around.
The Maple Leafs have already made sweeping changes to their bottom-six forward group for next season, moving out Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Frederik Gauthier while bringing in Wayne Simmonds, Jimmy Vesey, Joey Anderson, and Travis Boyd. They currently still have Alexander Kerfoot penciled into the third-line center role, but the team is barely under the cap and could need to make additional moves if they are looking at any other free agent upgrades.
Thornton, meanwhile, is coming off his worst season in two decades. The Sharks legend scored just seven goals and 31 points in 2019-20, his lowest total since that 1997-98 rookie campaign. He was frustrated when the Sharks didn’t move him to a contender at the deadline, telling reporters that “it would have been nice to at least have a chance” at the Stanley Cup, a prize that has eluded him over a 22-year career.
Mirtle and Johnston both were clear to point out that things are very preliminary between the Maple Leafs and Thornton, to the point where it may be just an expressed interest, not even negotiations. But the two sides have certainly flirted before.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Vancouver Canucks Re-Sign Ashton Sautner
The Vancouver Canucks have reached an agreement with Ashton Sautner, signing the defenseman to a one-year, two-way contract. Sautner had qualified for Group VI unrestricted free agency and could have signed with any team, but will be returning to the only professional organization he has played for.
An undrafted free agent signing out of the WHL, Sautner worked his way up the Vancouver depth chart and has played in 23 games for the Canucks over the last three seasons. While he will certainly spend the majority of 2020-21 in the minor leagues, he serves as valuable depth for a team that has their eyes on the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The 26-year-old defenseman scored 12 points in 51 games for the Utica Comets this season but is still looking for his first goal at the NHL level. The contract details were not released, but the deal is likely for the league minimum of $700K at the NHL level.
Minnesota Wild Sign Kaapo Kahkonen
The Minnesota Wild have already experienced huge changes in the crease this offseason, moving Devan Dubnyk to the San Jose Sharks and then committing to a three-year deal with Cam Talbot. While he will be expected to become the team’s starter in the short-term, there is still a prospect who will be challenging for the job down the line.
Kaapo Kahkonen, the reigning AHL Goaltender of the Year, has signed a two-year contract with Minnesota. That will remove the need for salary arbitration, which Kahkonen elected last week. The deal is a two-way contract in 2020-21, a one-way in 2021-22 and will carry an average annual value of $725K.
Kahkonen, 24, was a fourth-round pick by the Wild in 2014 and remains one of the top goaltending prospects in the league. In his sophomore season at the AHL level he posted a .927 save percentage and 2.07 goals-against average, earning him the top honors. He also received five games at the NHL level, where he more than held his own, posting a .913.
When asked about where the Talbot signing leaves Kahkonen, Wild GM Bill Guerin told Michael Russo of The Athletic that it gives them more time for his development and that “the last time we want to do is rush him along.”
Notably, a two-year deal will actually take Kahkonen to Group VI unrestricted free agency should he not get an NHL opportunity. Of course, the situation is also complicated by the expansion draft, where the Wild will only be able to protect one goaltender. It seems unlikely that Seattle would be targeting Talbot, but if he has a strong season in the Minnesota net the Wild will have to decide whether to leave him or Kahkonen unprotected.