Dan Hamhuis Signs With Dallas
After Dallas Stars’ defensemen Jason Demers and Kris Russell both decided to test out free agency, the Stars have replaced their outgoing performance by inking Dan Hamhuis to a two-year, $7.5MM contract, as reported by Bob McKenzie.
Hamhuis has spent the last six seasons in Vancouver where he has slowly seen his role and offensive performance decline as he heads into his mid-thirties. The former Predator and Norris trophy nominee will now join a blueline that has been torn apart over the last few weeks. In addition to Demers and Russell both heading to free agency, Dallas traded Alex Goligoski to the Coyotes just weeks before he also would have become an unrestricted free agent.
Now Hamhuis will join Johnny Oduya as the veterans in a group headlined by John Klingberg, the last bastion of the Stars’ young group from last season. For a team who is looking to contend this season, before many of their talented forwards reach free agency (including superstar captain Jamie Benn and sniper Patrick Sharp) Hamhuis is just the first step in rebuilding their back end.
Shawn Matthias Signs With Winnipeg
According to James Mirtle of TSN, the Winnipeg Jets have signed free agent forward Shawn Matthias to a two-year contract. Elliot Friedman reports that the deal will pay Matthias $2.125MM per season. The former Maple Leaf was traded to the Colorado Avalanche mid-season, and put up 12 goals and 28 points on the year.
Matthias, 28, has always been regarded as somewhat of a scoring winger that could play anywhere in your top nine, despite ever only scoring more than 15 goals once in his career. His $4.25MM deal comes in as the biggest of his career, despite actually taking a salary cut from $2.3MM.
He’ll join a Jets team still reeling from last season’s poor performance, and still struggling to reach a contract with RFA Jacob Trouba. Rumors of offer sheets have swirled around the young defenseman in recent days, and he’ll be their next priority after the first day of free agency cools off.
Free Agent Profile: Mikkel Boedker
Mikkel Boedker’s name doesn’t quickly come up when discussing the top unrestricted free agents available but he is one of the more intriguing players on the market.
At just 26 years of age, Boedker is one of the youngest free agents on the market and the youngest of the impact (top six) forwards. It’s safe to say he’s entering the prime of his career which isn’t often the case when dealing with UFA’s. He also has the ability to play both wings, making him one of the more versatile players available.
Offensively, Boedker has shown signs of improvement the last several years. Over the past three seasons, he has passed the 50 point mark twice and played at a 50 point pace in an injury-riddled 2014-15 campaign. Last year, split between Arizona and Colorado, he picked up 17 goals and 34 assists in 80 games. That put him in a tie for fifth in points amongst all remaining UFA forwards.
On top of his improving offensive ability, Boedker’s speed is his biggest weapon. He’s one of the fastest skaters in the league and has the potential to be a big factor in transition wherever he winds up.
There are some concerns with his play though. He’s not the most consistent defensive player nor is it a particular strength of his. That limits where he can play in the lineup; for teams that run a two-way second line, he’s not really an option there nor is he strong enough to really be a top line player.
Potential Suitors
There haven’t been many teams linked to Boedker yet as most of the focus has been on the bigger names with a more proven track record. There should be no shortage of options as he’s young enough to be considered a core piece on rebuilding teams while being enough of an impact player.
Vancouver is the only team that has publicly been linked to him at this point. Other teams that could have varying degrees of interest are Toronto, Montreal, New Jersey, Buffalo, and Detroit among others. A return to Arizona is certainly a possibility as well. Those are all teams that have a young, emerging core that also have vacancies inside their top six.
Projected Contract
Boedker is ranked eighth on our Top 50 list of free agents. We have him signing a 6 year, $31.5MM contract. He may be wise to wait for some of the bigger names to go as that should increase the number of suitors he has as they will likely circle to him as a fallback option.
PHR’s Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents
Initially published on June 21st, 2016.
With free agency less than two weeks away, it’s time to unveil our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agent List. The rankings were voted on by the PHR writing team and were based on talent and projected demand, not what we forecast for their new contracts.
Last summer, we saw GM’s show more restraint when it came to opening their wallets. That was due to the salary cap only increasing slightly and with the predictions that it won’t change much for 2016-17, we’re projecting that teams won’t be free spending again this time around. Sure, the top players will still get the big bucks but some of the middle-tiered players may not have quite the market they’re hoping for. We also have taken into consideration that some free agents may take a little less to stay where they are.
All predictions are independent of each other and no specific consideration has been given to no-trade or no-move clauses. Any players that have been or will be bought out are not included on this list.
Without further ado, here are our rankings and projections.
1. Steven Stamkos – Lightning – 8 years, $72MM. It’s extremely rare that a player like Stamkos ever gets to the market. He’s one of the top pure goal scorers in the league (only Washington’s Alex Ovechkin has more goals in the last five seasons) and at 26 years old, he’s in the prime of his career. A blood clot he sustained late in the year may give a couple of teams pause but if he makes it to free agency, he still should have no shortage of suitors. (Signed with Lightning, 8 years, $68MM)
2. Kyle Okposo – Sabres – 7 years, $47.25MM. Okposo has been under the shadow of linemate John Tavares for most of his career but he has quietly become a legitimate front line player in his own right. He has been one of the more consistent point-producing right wingers (a position that’s not too deep in terms of top-end talent) and is young enough that whoever gets him shouldn’t have to worry too much about a drop off towards the end of the contract. (Signed with Sabres, 7 years, $42MM)
3. Milan Lucic – Kings – 5 years, $28.75MM. Lucic is the prototypical power forward that every team wants to have on their side. He has picked up at least 44 points and been in the top 12 in hits in each of the last three seasons. Perhaps even more impressive is his durability given the style he plays as he has missed just ten games in the last six years. Despite that, it’s reasonable to expect that to change as he ages and accordingly, he may have some challenges getting a six or seven year deal. (Signed with Oilers, 7 years, $42MM)
4. Keith Yandle – Panthers – 6 years, $41.4MM. It’s a fairly weak UFA class of blueliners which should work to Yandle’s benefit as he is unquestionably the best of those available. He’s a high end point producer at his position which will make teams overlook some of his defensive concerns. Brent Seabrook received $6.875MM to extend in Chicago; Yandle in an open market should be able to come in at a similar price tag per year. (Signed with Panthers, 7 years, $44.45MM)
5. David Backes – Wild – 6 years, $34MM. Like Lucic, Backes is the big, physical forward that all teams covet and Backes provides the further benefit of playing center. He has surpassed the 20 goal mark in each of the last five full seasons and consistently hovers around the 45-60 point range year after year. Consistency, size, and skill are all elements that GM’s will covet in free agency and Backes has them all so despite the fact he’s older than some of the other players in our rankings (32), he should be able to command a long-term deal. (Signed with Bruins, 5 years, $30MM)
Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Lightning, Bruins
The Detroit Red Wings are apparently talking more with Darren Helm after many analysts figured his time in Detroit was up. This all changed after Steven Stamkos was locked up in an eight-year deal with the Lightning. Craig Custance tweets that both Helm and the Wings will talk until tomorrow when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. An afterthought after Drew Miller signed a one-year extension, Helm could fill a need at center now that Stamkos is off the market, though it will not be the type of production Stamkos would have generated. Helm, 29, has spent his entire career with the Red Wings.
Nick Cotsonika wonders where the Red Wings go from here after not even getting a chance to talk with Stamkos. Cotsonika reports that Stamkos would have been the first bona-fide superstar signing for Detroit in quite some time, and that a quarter-century of success has its drawbacks in terms of not drafting generational talent due to having lower draft picks. The Red Wings, Cotsonika writes, will have to be deft at not only acquiring the right free agent, but outbidding other teams without overpaying.
Other Central Division notes:
- Speaking of Stamkos, Kevin McGran writes how the 25-year-old never intended to leave Tampa in the first place. Though he had the chance to be a “hometown hero,” Stamkos opted to stay with the Lightning where the opportunity to win a Cup remains very strong. McGran reports that not only did Stamkos sign for a very cap friendly $8.5MM, he did so knowing it was about $3MM less than what he could have received on the open market.
- DJ Bean reports that the Bruins would have preferred to trade Dennis Seidenberg instead of buying out his contract. Bean writes that a source told him that general manager Don Sweeney never approached Seidenberg with a trade scenario. Seidenberg’s contract included a no trade clause until December. Bean surmises that this either meant no one was interested in taking Seidenberg’s contract or if willing to take it, they would have expected a return similar to the Blackhawks Bryan Bickell trade that included Teuvo Teravainen.
Free Agent Profile: David Backes
David Backes is fifth on PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents list. In this market the St. Louis Blues captain will command $5MM+ a year despite coming off of his worst season statistically since 2007-08. His leadership, grit, and ability to score timely goals are characteristics valued by NHL GMs and are always in demand.
Backes epitomizes the steady scorer, collecting between 45-60 points a season since 2008. It is his two-way play, however, that garners all the attention. The perennial Selke Trophy candidate’s defensive prowess compares to Jonathan Toews, Anze Kopitar, and Patrice Bergeron. He excels in the face-off dot, and was second to only Alex Steen in team TOI.
POTENTIAL SUITORS
St. Louis is the main candidate to sign Backes. The team drafted him in 2003—62nd in a historically stacked draft year—and made him captain in 2011. Backes has been one of the Blues’ top producers year in and year out by consistently finishing near the top of the team scoring leaders. GM Doug Armstrong said in February that trading Backes as an impending free agent at the deadline “would be an injustice” to the team. Armstrong doubled down on his desire to keep Backes in June, telling NHL.com that the team would like Backes back, and are willing to pony up some “thank-you” money. This makes sense as the Blues don’t want to take a step back after making it to the Western Conference Finals last year. It is also rare for teams to lose their captains to free agency, but then again the Blues traded away former captain Eric Brewer before giving the captaincy to Backes. Cap space won’t be a problem, however, as they currently have over $14MM in cap space.
Other suitors would be any team missing out on Steven Stamkos in free agency. Backes will command less in term and in money, which make him an option for thriftier teams. The center would also be a good option for teams with up-and-coming centers not be ready for top line duties yet—teams like Buffalo, Edmonton, and Toronto. Detroit is also a good fit as Backes could replace elite two-way forward Pavel Datsyuk. Backes will not cure any team’s scoring woes, but he will add elite two-way offense and concrete leadership. Expect him to either re-sign with the Blues after testing free agency, or sign with a team looking for more defensive responsibility from its forwards.
EXPECTED CONTRACT
PHR predicts that Backes receives a six-year, $34MM contract, averaging out to just over $5.5MM a year. His age (32) brings the dollar amount down slightly. While he embodies the prototypical power forward role, his numbers declined this year and may leave some teams wary of the future. Moreover, his age will take a toll on the more physical aspects of his game. In a market where Andrew Shaw receives $3.9MM a year, however, Backes may cash in on one more payday before the inevitable decline.
Full List of Players Who Did Not Receive a Qualifying Offer
The deadline to make a qualifying offer to a restrict free agent ended at 5pm today. Below is a list of players who did not receive an offer and sorted by team for easy reference. Any player that did not receive a qualifying offer is eligible to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.
(as of writing the Toronto Maple Leafs were the only team not to confirm which players received QOs)
Anaheim Ducks
F Matt Bailey, F Brandon Pirri, F Charles Sarault, D Kevin Gagne, and D Martin Gernat.
Arizona Coyotes
F Sergei Plotnikov, , D Philip Samuelsson, F Christian Thomas, D Kevin Connauton, D Jarred Tinordi, D Klas Dahlbeck, and G Niklas Treutle
Boston Bruins
F Landon Ferraro and F Brett Connolly.
Buffalo Sabres
F Alex Guptill, F Colin Jacobs, F Jack Nevins, and Nathan Lieuwen.
Calgary Flames
F Kenny Agostino, F Bill Arnold, F Joe Colborne, F Turner Elson, F Josh Jooris, F Drew Shore, F Bryce Van Brabant, G Joni Ortio, and Kevin Poulin.
Carolina Hurricanes
F Zach Boychuk, F Anthony Camara, F Dane Fox, F Carter Sandlak, F Justin Shugg, D Danny Biega, D Michal Jordan, D Rasmus Rissanen, and G Rasmus Tirronen.
Snapshots: Blackhawks, Lightning, Vanek, Higgins
The Blackhawks may no longer be in salary cap hell, but they are certainly thinner up front writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. With Andrew Shaw being dealt to Montreal, both Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen off to Carolina, and Andrew Ladd hitting free agency, the Hawks have a number of open spots to shore up. While Chicago can now collectively breathe under the repressive Cap that has had them selling off parts since the summer of 2010, the casualties have come in the way of losing skill players. Lazerus has the Blackhawks possibly bringing back Brian Campbell, who could carry a $2MM/yr cap hit. Meanwhile, the bottom six forwards would look very different than the pedigree most Hawks fans are accustomed to. Lazerus lists Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann as potential candidates to return, while naming P.A. Parenteau or Sam Gagner as possible options to add in free agency.
In other league news:
- The Lightning have tendered qualifying offers to Yanni Gourde, Kristers Gudlevskis, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Tye McGinn, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Nikita Nesterov tweets Erik Eriendsson. In the meantime, general manager Steve Yzerman has a number of decisions to make as the free agency window opens on Friday. Steven Stamkos is still the top priority as teams are lining up to make their pitch. But the equally intriguing angle is what to do with goaltender Ben Bishop. Entering the final year of a contract with a $5.95MM cap hit, Bishop was reportedly working on contract specifics after the Flames were given permission to do so. That was scrapped as soon as the Flames acquired Brian Elliott from the Blues.
- Jason Brough reports that both the Canucks and Rangers may have interest in free agent Thomas Vanek. Though Vanek would be a backup plan to the higher tier free agents, namely Milan Lucic and Loui Eriksson, he could be a decent pickup at a reasonable price for both teams seeking scoring help. Vanek had 41 points (18-23) and will see a much lower offer than the three-year/$19.5MM offer he received from Minnesota, who bought him out last week.
- Elliotte Friedman tweets that Canucks winger Chris Higgins was placed on waivers for the purposes of being bought out. According to CapFriendly, the cap hit would be $833,333 through the 2017-18 season. CBS Sports listed Higgins as one of their buyout candidates, and the Vancouver Sun reported the Canucks actively shopping Higgins back in January. Higgins had 4 points (3-1) in 33 games last season.
Free Agent Profile: Steven Stamkos
In the salary cap era, it is extremely rare that legitimate star players make it to the free agent market. It’s also very rare that high end players become unrestricted free agents in the prime of their careers. Both of these apply to Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos, making his potential entry into Friday’s opening of free agency the most highly awaited in quite some time.
Last season, Stamkos played in 77 games with the Lightning, scoring 36 goals, good for a tie for the 7th most in the NHL. He also added 28 assists for a total of 64 points which was two shy of the team lead (Nikita Kucherov had 66). Both of those represented drops from 2014-15, where he had 72 points (43-29-72) while playing all 82 contests.
Late in the year, Stamkos was diagnosed with blood clots which cost him the final few games of the regular season as well as all but Tampa Bay’s final postseason game, a loss to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. While he was able to return, there will still be some questions as to his long-term health; is this now behind him or will it have the potential to linger or recur over the course of a long-term contract?
There’s no denying that Stamkos is among the best goal scorers in the game today and in an era where goals are at a premium, that can only stand to help Stamkos and agent Don Meehan in their quest to secure a new contract. Over the last 5 seasons, he has the second most goals in the NHL with 193, only behind Washington’s Alexander Ovechkin (224). However, Ovechkin has played in 38 more games over that span; if you break their goal totals into a goals-per-game rate, they’re nearly identical with Ovechkin at 0.615 per game and Stamkos at 0.592. Suffice it to say, he’s among the best at putting the puck in the net.
While Stamkos spent a big chunk of last year on the right wing, his natural position is center and that positional flexibility will certainly help his case as well. However, he has also made it known that he sees himself as a center and would like to return to playing that position moving forward.
Potential Suitors
To quickly sum it up, anyone with around $10MM or more in cap space or close to that amount that could use a top line sniper. If that sounds like just about every team in the league, it should, as that’s about how many will express some level of interest.
Buffalo is reportedly going to be “all in” when it comes to chasing Stamkos while Detroit now has the money to get into the bidding after shedding the retired Pavel Datsyuk’s contract over the weekend. Toronto is also likely to try to lure Stamkos to his hometown while Tampa Bay is attempting to re-sign him as well. Also, John Wawrow of AP reports that Boston and Vancouver expressed an interest in Stamkos over the weekend.
That’s only a shortlist of who will be courting Stamkos as well as more than half the league should make a pitch during the interview period between now and the opening of free agency on July 1st.
Expected Contract
We rated Stamkos as the top unrestricted free agent in our Top 50 list and have projected a max-term contract of eight years. For that to happen, Stamkos must sign prior to the opening of free agency.
While we have him taking that deal with Tampa Bay, GM Steve Yzerman told TSN’s Frank Seravelli that a sign-and-trade option to get Stamkos his eight years while getting an asset in return is also a possibility. We think he’ll take $9MM per year – less than he could get on the open market – to stick with the Lightning but if he does get to market, a cap hit in the double digit millions per year is a very realistic possibility.
Offer Sheet Candidates: Jones, Trouba, Lindholm
Offer sheets are an interesting wrinkle in the NHL’s free agency period; a rarely used but powerful tool to try and steal away young talent from rival clubs. Though we may not see any this season – the last one to be signed was by Ryan O’Reilly in 2013 – there are a few interesting names out there that could possibly draw interest from other teams. Let’s take a quick look at some of the offer sheet rules for this season:
- Teams can submit offer sheets to restricted free agents as of July 1st at 11:00 am central time. Players can choose to sign them at any point after that.
- If a player signs an offer sheet, his original team has seven days in which to match the deal or else accept the compensation. During this time they cannot be traded.
- Compensation is as follows (according to Elliotte Friedman):
Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
$1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
$1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
$3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
$5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
$7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks. - Teams must have the picks available before signing the player, or else the offer sheet will be considered null and void.
Some hefty prices to pay if a team goes after a big name to be sure, but sometimes deemed worth it; the Flyers would have faced stiff compensation penalties had Nashville not decided to match their 14-year, $110MM offer to Shea Weber in 2012 (one that would no longer be allowed under the seven-year contract limit). Here are some names that might just be worth the risk:
D Seth Jones – The Columbus Blue Jackets have huge cap issues at the moment and are desperately trying to rid themselves of some of their bad deals. After trading young star Ryan Johansen for Jones mid-season, they now need to find a way to re-sign the former fourth overall pick.
Jones is just 21, and has performed admirably in his first three seasons in the league, racking up 83 points in 240 games. If someone were to sign Jones to a long-term deal, the Blue Jackets would have a very difficult time matching it without finding a taker for some of their cap-hits. The team is already just $5MM under the cap, with close to $20MM committed to their blueline.
Whether Jones actually recieves any offers, or it’s just used as a negotiating tactic in order to pry some value out of the Blue Jackets in future trades, his name will surely come up in many talks this summer.
D Jacob Trouba – Another top-10 pick who is part of a deep defensive corps Trouba is considered available this summer on the trade market, and should be considered an offer sheet risk as well. While the Jets have much more cap room available, they already have three defencemen signed for over $5MM per season and might not be able to commit to a fourth.
Trouba has put up 72 points in 211 career games, and is considered a potential top-pairing blueliner in the future. Many teams could add him to their back end and thrust him into the spotlight in his fourth season. A long-term deal could be had, buying out free agent years and pushing that AAV up into un-matchable territory.
The Jets also have to worry about next year’s expansion draft, where they’ll be in danger of losing one of their young defencemen. Dustin Byfuglien and Toby Enstrom both have no-movement clauses that ensure their protection, leaving just one protection slot for both of Tyler Myers and Trouba (unless they choose the 8 skater option and risk some young forwards instead).
D Hampus Lindholm – The best player listed here, Lindholm has turned into an excellent defender for the Anaheim Ducks over the last few years. His case is one of worry for them as he could easily be offered a seven-year deal from teams around the league.
After signing Sami Vatanen last week, the Ducks now have five blueliners under contract for more than $3MM per season and adding a big deal that pushes $50MM could prove too pricey. If a team believes that Lindholm is the number 1 defenceman that he seems, they could decide to give up the picks in order to pry him away.
The Ducks have already dealt Frederik Andersen to save cap room and avoid losing him in the expansion draft, and they still have work to do before next summer. With Cam Fowler said to be on the market, perhaps he’ll be the victim of a looming Lindholm offer sheet.