Free Agent Profile: Sam Gagner
The curious case of Sam Gagner began in his rookie season, when he scored a career-high in points. Yes, you read that right and yes that is very unusual. The nine-year NHL veteran, who turns only 27 next month, finds his career in a tailspin, despite being in the prime of his career. The sixth overall pick in the 2007 NHL Draft broke into the league at 18 and excelled, but it has been all downhill from there.
The Edmonton Oilers were excited to select Gagner early in the first round of the ’07 draft. He was coming off a dominant season with the London Knights of the OHL, when he scored 118 points in 53 games and, along with Patrick Kane and Sergei Kostitsyn, led the Knights to a league-leading 104 regular season points. The Oilers were even more excited when Gagner made the team in his first season and went on to score 49 points, including another career-high of 36 assists. The young play maker continued to play well in Edmonton, scoring over 40 points in each of the next five seasons, and then putting up 38 points in 48 games in the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season.
Gagner signed a three-year, $14.4MM contract the following off-season, and with it came a steep decline in production. In his final season in Edmonton, Gagner managed to score only 37 points and was a -29. The Oilers, disappointed in the drop-off under the new contract, traded Gagner to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Teddy Purcell. That same day, Gagner was dealt again, along with B.J. Crombeen, to the Arizona Coyotes for a 6th round draft pick in a salary dump by Tampa. Gagner’s production remained the same in Arizona, as he scored 41 points, but struggled defensively yet again at -28. He was traded again last summer, this time to the Philadelphia Flyers, in exchange for Nicklas Grossman and the contract of Chris Pronger. The wheels fell off completely in Philadelphia, as Gagner played in only 53 games, recording just eight goals and eight assists for 16 points, 22 points less than the 38 he had in five less games only three years prior.
Gagner now finds himself in a precarious situation. Last season was a dismal effort offensively, and the options for a player that is not defensively inclined looking to find a role with those numbers will be few. He must find a team where he would be a good fit in the top nine and that can help him get his scoring back on track. Another down year could signal the end of a once promising career.
Potential Suitors
Gagner remains unsigned, but there have been teams that have considered the reclamation project. Gagner’s best chance to re-boot his career would be to find a team with thin forward depth, where he could work his way into a top six role, or a talented offensive team where he could fill a hole and boost his statistics. Vancouver and Ottawa have kicked the tires on the forward, while a team like Chicago or San Jose could try to squeeze him in under the cap as well.
Expected Contract
Despite his recent struggles, his offensive potential (and a thin market) has him ranked within our Top 50 NHL Free Agents list, at #46. With many of those names off of the list following the free agent frenzy on July 1st and over the past few days, Gagner’s market may be gaining steam as he is likely one of the best dozen players that remain unsigned. We have predicted that Gagner will sign a one-year, $1MM deal with the Blackhawks. Some of the younger, rebuilding teams may be interested in a multi-year deal for Gagner, but his best option would be to sign a one-year “show me” deal with a good fit and try to redeem his numbers before hitting the open market again next year.
Free Agent Frenzy: Day 3 Activity
Day three of free agency was much quieter than the fireworks we saw on July 1.
Free Agent Signings:
RD Matt Tennyson (CAR) – One year, $675K (link)
RW Adam Cracknell (DAL) – One year, $600K (link)
LW Taylor Beck (EDM) – One year, undisclosed (link)
LW Mike Liambas (NSH) – One year, $575K (link)
Entry-Level Contracts:
RW Patrik Laine (WIN) – Three years, $10.725MM (link)
Extensions:
RW Reilly Smith (FLA) – Five years, $25MM (link)
With 34 of the 50 Top UFAs already signed, the rest of the summer should consist mostly of RFA contracts and trades. We’ll be right here to keep you updated throughout. Make sure to check out Roster Resource for the project depth charts of your favorite team, and bookmark PHR for easy visits!
RFAs Still Waiting On Contracts
After a busy few days watching free agent contracts be handed out like candy, and millions of dollars spent like pennies, there are still some key restricted free agents out there negotiating their next contracts. Vincent Trocheck, Filip Forsberg and Seth Jones have already received deals eclipsing $25MM, locking them in long before they even get a sniff of unrestricted free agency. Here are a few more names still waiting on deals:
- Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan of the Flames still are without deals, though reports indicate they are both open to signing long-term with Calgary and want to play with each other for “the next ten years”. The pair combined for 57 goals and 141 points last season, completed before either turned 23.
- The Ducks’ Hampus Lindholm is still without a contract, as discussed earlier today. The 22-year old is considered one of the best young defensemen in the league, and the team would like to lock him up to a similar term as partner Sami Vatanen, who received a four-year deal last month.
- After re-signing Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy to what seem like team-friendly deals, GM Steve Yzerman still has work to do in the form of Nikita Kucherov, the team’s young sniper. Reports are that the two sides are working on a deal, but Yzerman has to be careful as the team is inching closer and closer to the salary cap with Kucherov and three other players still to sign.
- After acquiring Taylor Hall in a blockbuster deal, the Devils still have another star winger to get under contract in the form of Kyle Palmieri. The 25-year old broke out last season with 30 goals, and will be looking to cash in on his sudden performance. The Devils have over $17MM in cap space even after bringing back Devante Smith-Pelly and signing Ben Lovejoy and Vernon Fiddler.
For the entire list of RFA players, and the projected depth charts for each team head to Roster Resource and check out their detailed info.
Panthers Extend Reilly Smith For Five Years
Clearly the biggest players in free agency this year, the Florida Panthers are close to another move to lock up their young core. Gary Lawless of TSN was first to report that the team was close to an extension with forward Reilly Smith that would pay him $5MM a season for an additional five years. The team has since confirmed the length of the deal, though not the financial details.
In just the past few weeks, the team has traded for then signed Keith Yandle, dealt away Dmitry Kulikov, given extensions to Aaron Ekblad and Vincent Trocheck, signed free agents Jason Demers and James Reimer, and pretty much owned the hockey world.
Smith, 25, had an excellent season last year with the Panthers, scoring 25 goals and 50 points. The former third round pick has had quite a start to his career, putting up at least 40 points in each of his first three full seasons. The talented young winger came over to Florida in the deal that saw them take on Marc Savard‘s cap-hit from the Bruins, one that they recently dealt to New Jersey for some cap relief of their own.
The Panthers have been on quite a clear path lately, trying to push past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 1996, the year they lost in the Cup finals to Colorado. After being knocked out by the New York Islanders last season, the team has made clear upgrades to their defensive group, and should have one of the better top pairings in the league with Ekblad and Yandle signed long-term.
Smith is still under contract for next season at a $3.43MM cap hit, meaning that a five-year extension would take him through the 2021-22 season. Perhaps not coincidentally, that is also when Trocheck and Aleksander Barkov will hit free agency, giving the team a chance to re-tool if they need to at that point.
If the financials are true, it would mean the Panthers have four young forwards under contract long-term for less than $6MM apiece in Barkov, Trocheck, Smith and Nick Bjugstad. All 25 or under, that quartet scored 93 goals last season. Next on the to-do list would be Jonathan Huberdeau, the former third overall pick who put up 20 goals of his own last season. He’s due $3.25MM next year before becoming an arbitration-eligible RFA next summer.
Hurricanes Sign Tennyson To One-Year Contract
Defenceman Matt Tennyson and the Carolina Hurricanes have agreed to one year, two-way contract worth $675K at the NHL level and $275K in the AHL. Tennyson put up 4 points in 29 games with San Jose last season.
Hurricanes GM Ron Francis said he believes Tennyson can play at the NHL level, and provides right-handed depth. Despite being an inexpensive depth option, the signing continues the trend of right-handed defensemen being valued additions to teams. At this point in his career, Tennyson figures to be a bottom-pairing or seventh defenceman at the NHL level but was signed early in free agency.
Tennyson was an un-drafted free agent signing by the Sharks in 2012, and has appeared in 60 NHL games over three seasons, totalling 14 points. He also scored 65 points in 169 AHL games with the Sharks’ AHL affiliates Worcester Sharks and then San Jose Barracuda.
Vesey Remains Committed To Free Agency
Jimmy Vesey will wait a little longer before deciding his future.
The Harvard grad says he’s committed to becoming an unrestricted free agent, but that won’t happen until August 15. The end-of-summer signing period won’t prevent him from being heavily sought-after. While Vesey has never publicly revealed his shortlist, Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe reports Toronto, Boston, Buffalo, both New York teams, New Jersey, and “potentially” St. Louis and Philadelphia having potentially having major interest.
Vesey was drafted 66th overall in 2012 by the Nashville Predators. He played 4 seasons post-draft at Harvard, posting 144 points in 128 games. But when it came time to sign his entry-level contract with the Predators, Vesey declined to put pen to paper, despite allegedly saying he would. Not wanting to lose a good prospect for nothing, the Predators traded Vesey to Buffalo for the 70th pick in this year’s entry draft, recouping the draft pick they spent on Vesey but not the four years of development.
According to Frank Seravalli of TSN, the Sabres plan on making their pitch to Vesey sometime this week, with hopes of convincing him to sign and play with his good friend, Jack Eichel. Vesey and Eichel have been playing together on a summer league team for years now, and Eichel has already given Vesey the talk about Buffalo. However, Vesey’s agent confirmed that free agency is still the plan.
Despite being done school, Vesey will spend his summer doing homework on where he wants to sign. He has family connections in Toronto, with his dad working with the Maple Leafs and his brother being drafted by them. He’s spent four seasons playing in Massachusetts. His good friend plays with Buffalo.
All of the above-listed teams have room for Vesey in their top 6 forwards, and will be getting a highly-motivated player.
Free Agent Frenzy: Day 2 Activity
After yesterday’s absolute madness, that saw over $600MM dollars given out, day two had fewer fireworks. Teams still got a lot done, with the highlight being a five year, $22.5MM deal given to free agent defenseman (and right-handed shot) Jason Demers. Here is all of the day’s activity:
Trades:
To St. Louis: 2017 fifth round pick (BUF)
To Buffalo: G Anders Nilsson
(link)
Free Agent Signings:
D Nate Guenin (ANA) – One year, $600K (link)
C Alex Friesen (STL) – One year, undisclosed (link)
D Brad Hunt (STL) – One year, undisclosed (link)
C Wade Megan (STL) – One year, undisclosed (link)
D Chris Butler (STL) – One year, undisclosed (link)
C Jacob Doty (STL) – One year, undisclosed (link)
C Brad Malone (WSH) – One year, $575K (link)
G Kristers Gudlevskis (TB) – One year, undisclosed (link)
RW P.A. Parenteau (NYI) – One year, $1.25MM (link)
LW Chris Terry (MON) – One year, undisclosed (link)
D Philip Samuelsson (MON) – One year, $600K (link)
D Jason Demers (FLA) – Five years, $22.5MM (link)
C Vincent Trocheck (FLA) – Six years, $28.5MM (link)
D Julian Melchiori (WIN) – Two years, $1.25MM (link)
C Derek Grant (BUF) – One year, undisclosed (link)
G Anders Nilsson (BUF) – One year, $1MM (link)
D Roman Polak (TOR) – One year, undisclosed (link)
Entry-Level Contracts:
D Justin Holl (TOR) – One year, $925K (link)
D Ethan Bear (EDM) – Three years, $2.78MM (link)
C Conner Bleackley (STL) – Three years, $2.78MM (link)
G Jamie Phillips (WIN) – Two years, $1.35MM (link)
The Exceedingly Expensive Right-Handed Defenseman
The problem of right-handed defensemen (RHD) has been one for a while in the NHL, with teams struggling to find three good ones to slot into their blueline. Last season, there were only 80 of them that played in at least 41 games (half the season), compared to a whopping 111 southpaws.
Of the RHD group, the best are among the league’s elite, with all three of the top Norris trophy vote-getters skating on the right side (Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, and Brent Burns). This top group is being paid like the superstars they are, but it’s beginning to present as a trend throughout the league to overpay, through free agency or trade, for some of the mid-level (or bottom rung) talent.
Aaron Ekblad finds himself in that top group, and was rewarded with a whopping $60MM extension before his 21st birthday. The Panthers realized that he was worth $15MM (or, more accurately $1.15MM per season) more than another recent signee, Keith Yandle, despite only buying out four free agent years. This isn’t a mistake, far from it, it’s just the going rate for right-handed talent.
The Oilers were recently affected by it as well; they ended up trading one of the best wingers in the world for a good (and maybe great) RHD because it’s been so long since they’ve been able to find one. The Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson deal is a massive overpay because Edmonton were dead-set on the idea of acquiring a member of the NHL’s smallest communities.
We saw it most clearly when the right-handed Ben Lovejoy received a bigger contract (in total $) than Dan Hamhuis, despite being just 14 months younger than him. Most people would agree that the former Penguin isn’t the player Hamhuis is, but he is right-handed.
Lovejoy will also be earning more per season for the Devils than their own outgoing David Schlemko, who by all rights is a much better defenseman and is capable of about the same production offensively. He’s also more than three years younger than Lovejoy, albeit with a shorter track record to match.
The Maple Leafs even brought back Roman Polak today, a move which had many analysts scratching their head due to the Leafs’ glut of young blueliners in the minor league system. The Leafs know that Polak will be valuable again at this year’s deadline – last season they used San Jose’s need for a RHD to the tune of two second round picks (apologies to Nick Spaling).
It’s this extreme lack of options that makes today’s signing of Jason Demers by the Florida Panthers look so fantastic, as they locked up the top-4, RHD for just $4.5MM per season for the next five years.
When Kevin Shattenkirk is commanding pieces like Dylan Larkin in trade, and Larsson can net you a superstar in Hall, signing right-handed defensemen in their prime to reasonable contracts isn’t something that should be taken lightly – in fact, it’s almost never seen in today’s NHL.
Sens’ Prospect Colin White Headed Back To NCAA
According to a report from Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen, Ottawa Senators’ prospect and former first-round pick Colin White has decided to go back to Boston College this season. The 19-year old was considered a possibility to crack the team’s NHL roster, but has decided to return to the Eagles for 2016-17.
White, selected 21st overall in 2015, exploded onto the college scene last season with 43 points in 37 games as a freshman. His 19 goals ranked third on the team, and those 43 points put him fifth in the entire H-East division.
While this shouldn’t scare any Senator fans, and doesn’t deserve any comparisons to the recent comments of Jimmy Vesey about hitting free agency, White did have a chance at cracking the roster as early as this season. Boston College is an outstanding program that will take control of his development for another season, and he should see an increased role in their offense as they go after another national championship.
Fellow Boston College standout Ian McCoshen recently signed on with the Florida Panthers after three seasons in college, and White may take a similar path.
Free Agent Profile: Kris Russell
After Friday’s spending frenzy, D Kris Russell is the most prominent player left on the open market. Because of the contrasting interpretation of his skill set, his free agency case is certainly interesting to follow.
Russell, though quite undersized for his position at just 5’10, has carved out a niche for himself in recent years as one of the preeminent shot blockers in the entire league. He has recorded at least 201 blocked shots in each of the last three seasons with a career high of 283 in 2014-15, more than 70 blocks more than the next highest player. Last year, his total dipped to 210 but that was still good enough for second highest in the league behind Colorado’s Francois Beauchemin.
How that stat is interpreted is what makes his particular case so intriguing. On the one hand, teams value players who are willing to put their body on the line to keep shots from getting through to the net. Those players have been handsomely rewarded in the past. On the other hand, the fact that Russell is on the ice for so many shots against can be interpreted as an indictment of his defensive play; if he was better in that regard, he wouldn’t have so many shots to block. Any GM who looks at it that way will either offer him less money or stay away from offering him a deal altogether.
Further complicating his value is Russell’s step back offensively compared to 2014-15. That season, he collected 30 assists and 34 points but last year, he had just 15 and 19, respectively. At 34 points, he can be classified as a two-way defender but under 20, that’s no longer the case. Russell’s agent may try to sell him as a two-way player but it’s not likely that he’ll get much traction there.
Potential Suitors
Toronto and Montreal were both linked to Russell on Friday but neither of them has the cap space to sign him outright (before taking any projected LTIR-bound players into consideration). Vancouver also was believed to have some interest but may not have a roster spot for him. Boston has the cap space and roster vacancy to fit him in, as do the Stars, where Russell finished last season. If Russell’s asking price drops, that will open up a few other landing spots as well.
Projected Contract
Russell is ranked 12th on our Top 50 UFA list and is the highest of the unsigned players on there. We project a four year, $18MM contract for the 29 year old.