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NHL General Managers Discussing Draft Lottery Changes

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While Friday’s NHL GM meeting was supposed to center around plans to return to play, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that “a good chunk” of the discussion instead was spent on proposed changes to the NHL Draft Lottery system. Specifically, the Detroit Red Wings are leading the charge to get the lottery odds of the league’s worst teams boosted and Friedman believes they have considerable support.

The lottery structure is far from untouchable. The design has shifted several times since its inception and odds have been tweaked regularly. When the lottery began in 1995, there was only one winner selected and that team would only move up four spots. That structure changed in 2013, when the four spot limit was eliminated and every non-playoff team had a shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as they do now. In 2015, things got even more difficult for the league’s worst teams, as the odds shifted to the benefit of those teams closer to playoff contention in an effort to deter “tanking”. Finally, in 2016 things got even worse for those bottom dwellers, as all three of the top picks became lottery selections and the league’s worst team could fall all the way to fourth. And that is exactly what has happened in three of the past four years. In fact, the last-place finisher in the regular season standings has only retained the top pick twice since the structure shifted in 2013.

With teams like the 2017 Colorado Avalanche and now the 2020 Detroit Red Wings enduring historically bad seasons – without obvious tanking tactics at that – only to drop out of the top three picks entirely, it seems many of the league’s clubs have decided a change is in order. The current odds of the 31st-place team winning the lottery is 18.5%. This is 5% more than the team in second place, but still relatively low compared to the pre-2015 odds of 25%. The league has asked for specific proposals for a new alignment, which will also have to account for an incoming 32nd team in 2021-22, but given the recent history of deeply needy teams striking out in the lottery, it would not be surprise to see the odds for the last-place team bump back over 20% at least with bottom-three in the regular season standings all receiving a boost in their likelihood of sticking in the top three slots.

Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings Exchange Arbitration Figures

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The next arbitration hearing is scheduled for Sunday between the Detroit Red Wings and scrappy young forward Tyler Bertuzzi. Today the two sides filed arbitration figures, with Elliotte Friedman reporting that Bertuzzi came in at $4.25MM while the team is looking for a $3.15MM contract.

It is important to remember that in the NHL, the arbitrator does not need to choose one filing or the other and usually instead awards a contract somewhere in the middle. The two sides can also come to an agreement in the coming days, though this year once the hearing begins they must wait for the reward and cannot settle while the arbitrator deliberates.

In this case, the player’s ask is not above the $4,538,938 “walk away” threshold, meaning that the Red Wings will have to sign Bertuzzi to whatever the arbitrator awards should the hearing begin.

The 25-year-old has been one of the team’s best players since arriving in the NHL full-time in 2017-18. With consecutive 21-goal seasons under his belt, his arbitration case is strong from a purely statistical standpoint. Bertuzzi also brings a lot of the most sought after hockey intangibles, with his ability to get under opponents skin and instigate physical play while taking relatively low penalty totals.

In 2019-20 he actually led the team in goals, finishing only five points behind Dylan Larkin in total points. Though the Red Wings are working on a rebuild that will revolve around several new faces, Bertuzzi is currently one of the most important players on the team.

Pacific Notes: Fischer, Sharks, Bowey

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With the deadline for players to accept their qualifying offers having passed earlier today, Coyotes beat writer Craig Morgan reports that the Coyotes are still working on a deal for restricted free agent forward Christian Fischer, even though there is no word on whether they requested an extension from the league. The forward does not have arbitration rights.

Fischer struggled significantly last season, seeing his playing time reduced by more than two minutes, going from 13:10 ATOI to 11:01 this season) and scored just six goals and nine points in 56 games. The 23-year-old just wrapped up his entry-level deal where he made $1.08MM.

  • The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that the loss of center Joe Thornton will have a significant effect on the team. While his offense should be able to be replaced, the bigger effect is how the team will fare without his presence in the locker room, where the veterans had quite an effect over the years. Now with Thornton and Joe Pavelski gone, much of the leadership will fall on the shoulders of second-year captain Logan Couture, who will tough shoes to fill in the Sharks’ locker room. “You have to have a whole leadership group,” general manager Doug Wilson said. “It’s on a whole group of players, it’s not a one-person leadership mentality. … Yes, you’ve got some of the veterans that certainly know it’s their responsibility, but some of the younger guys, too — Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc. It’s their time. They need to step up to the next level. We have to be the sum of all our parts.”
  • With Matt Benning gone and prospects Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg still developing, the Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins writes that one player that the Oilers may consider adding is former Detroit Red Wings blueliner Madison Bowey. The Red Wings opted not to give the 25-year-old a qualifying offer, making him a free-agent. However, Oilers general manager Ken Holland is familiar with Bowey, who he traded for back when he was with the Red Wings and it could be a good fit. The 6-foot-2 blueliner averaged 17:54 last season in 53 games with Detroit, posting three goals and 17 points.

Vladislav Namestnikov Signs With Detroit Red Wings

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The Detroit Red Wings are staying busy on the free agent market and have landed themselves a bargain. Versatile, two-way winger Vladislav Namestnikov is set to join the Red Wings and reunite with GM Steve Yzerman, who drafted him in the first round with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Detroit has announced a two-year deal with Namestnikov which reportedly carries a $2MM AAV. This represents a surprising drop-off in salary for Namestnikov, who made $4MM on his previous contract and has 30+ points in four of his five full NHL seasons.

Namestnikov, PHR’s 20th-ranked UFA, is either the victim of a flat cap market that is already running out of money or simply took a discount to join the Red Wings and play a major role up front. The 27-year-old is coming off a season in which he recorded 17 goals and 31 points in 65 games, despite dealing with not one but two different trades. Moving from the New York Rangers to the Ottawa Senators and then to the Colorado Avalanche, Namestnikov quickly took to each of his new locales and excelled. With some consistency, he is easily capable of reaching 20 goals and 40 points while being paid like a player who might produce half that much.

A skilled forward who also plays a responsible defensive game and is a major asset on the penalty kill, Namestnikov checks a number of boxes for Detroit. If handed a major role, as he was in Ottawa, Namestnikov should be a top scorer for the Red Wings as well as one of their best special teams players. While his salary seemingly reflects a “show me” deal, the two-year term means he’ll need produce in both seasons in Detroit if he want to cash in the next time he hits the open market. Fortunately, Namestnikov stands a strong chance of  boosting his stock in Detroit and will still be just 29 as a UFA in 2022.

Red Wings Sign Troy Stecher

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After signing Thomas Greiss earlier today, the Red Wings are dipping their toes into the UFA waters again as they announced (Twitter link) the signing of defenseman Troy Stecher to a two-year contract.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (via Twitter) that the deal carries an AAV of $1.7MM.  The 26-year-old was non-tendered by Vancouver on Wednesday instead of giving him a $2.325MM qualifying offer with salary arbitration rights.

Stecher is coming off of a quiet season with the Canucks.  After being a part of their top four, the addition of Tyler Myers and Chris Tanev staying healthy pushed him into primarily a spot on the third pairing in 2019-20.  As a result, his playing time dipped by more than four minutes a game (from 19:55 to 15:21) although he still managed to put up five goals and a dozen assists in 69 games.  In 17 postseason appearances, he had two tallies and a helper while logging a little over 16 minutes per game.  Those numbers are still good for someone on the third pairing but at his qualifying offer number, it was just a bit too expensive for Vancouver to justify.  However, with him and Tanev now gone, there is a hole on Vancouver’s back end that will need to be filled.

Stecher should fit in well with Detroit.  Their depth on the right side of their back end is limited with Filip Hronek basically being the only one ahead of him on the right so this should be an opportunity for him to go back to playing in a top-four role.  He’ll only be 28 when his deal is up which should give him a chance to hit the open market while still being in the prime of his career.  Meanwhile, this may be it for the Red Wings when it comes to the rebuild of their defense.  With this addition plus Jon Merrill yesterday and Marc Staal last month, they now have seven NHL blueliners under contracts with a few youngsters that should contend for playing time at some point next season.

Detroit Red Wings Sign Thomas Greiss

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Veteran netminder Thomas Greiss waited out the rush of goalie signings yesterday and has been rewarded. With multiple teams in need of help in net but few strong options still available on the open market, Greiss has cashed in on deal with the Detroit Red Wings. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Greiss has agreed to a two-year, $7.2MM contract with Detroit. The Red Wings have confirmed the signing.

Greiss, 34, has been with the New York Islanders for the past five seasons, during which time he has established himself as one of the better backups in the NHL. Greiss has posted a .920 save percentage or better three times in his career, including a 2018-19 campaign in which he shared Jennings Trophy honors with Robin Lehner. While Greiss’ numbers slipped this past season, he was still a reliable backstop with a .913 save percentage and a .571 winning percentage in 28 starts.

He has also shown an ability to carry the load at times in his career and his new contract, a raise from his expired deal with the Islanders, indicates that the Red Wings believe he can challenge for the starting job. Greiss has played 41+ games in three seasons, all of which have come in the past five years with New York. Age is thus not a factor in his ability to take on a heavier load. Jonathan Bernier’s play improved significantly after a dismal start to his Red Wings tenure, but his hold on the starting job is far from secure. Greiss has had superior numbers between the two in each of the past two seasons, so if that translates to Detroit then Bernier could be in trouble. A 50/50 split is very possible, but there will be ongoing competition for even a slight lead share in net.

Detroit Red Wings Announce Three Minor Contracts

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The Detroit Red Wings have agreed to terms with three minor league players, inking Kyle Criscuolo, Kevin Boyle and Riley Barber. Criscuolo and Boyle have both signed one-year deals, while Barber gets a two-year pact.

As the Red Wings reset their organization and get into a full rebuild, they needed players to fill out the depth chart in the minor leagues. All three players have experience in the NHL but shouldn’t be considered full-time options there at this point.

Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has moved out and strictly avoided any long-term deals so that he can build the team the way he wants, with only Dylan Larkin signed through the 2022-23 season. While he added a couple of veterans in Bobby Ryan and Jon Merrill, the Red Wings haven’t gotten into the bigger names on the market.

Detroit Red Wings Sign Jon Merrill

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Before most teams have made even one move today, the Detroit Red Wings have already made their second free agent signing. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that the team has inked defenseman Jon Merrill to a one-year contract. The deal is expected to carry a $925K AAV for the former University of Michigan standout. The Red Wings have confirmed the signing but terms have not officially been disclosed.

A long-time New Jersey Devil and an inaugural member of the Vegas Golden Knights, Merrill now returns to the state where it all began. The 28-year-old was a star for the Michigan Wolverines in nearby Ann Arbor and will be happy to return to Detroit, even on a one-year deal.

A defensive specialist who excels in the little things when it comes to playing sound defense, Merrill has never been an everyday defenseman in his NHL career but is a valuable depth piece. He will have the chance to earn a bigger role with the rebuilding Red Wings, but at the very least he will provide solid defense and experience to the young squad and could net the team a return at the trade deadline.

Bobby Ryan To Sign With Detroit Red Wings

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The Detroit Red Wings are expected to sign veteran forward Bobby Ryan, who was recently bought out by the Ottawa Senators. Ryan will sign a one-year deal worth $1MM according to Craig Custance of The Athletic.

Ryan, 33, was the Masterton Trophy winner this season after coming back from the Player Assistance Program as he dealt with alcohol abuse. His return to Ottawa was one of the most emotional moments of the season as he recorded a hat-trick, earning several standing ovations from the crowd and huge celebrations from his teammates.

A beloved locker room presence, Ryan will try to get his career back on track in Detroit. Carrying a cap hit of $7MM in Ottawa was just no longer possible, but perhaps there is still some hockey left in the former 30-goal man.

For Detroit, this is a perfect signing that could potentially give them a trade chip at the deadline. Give Ryan some prime minutes next in the top-six and powerplay, then flip him to a contender a few months into the season.

Detroit Red Wings Complete Loans, Sign Free Agents

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The Detroit Red Wings have been checking several boxes on their offseason to-do list today. First, the team has officially assigned Joe Veleno to Malmo of the SHL and have changed Moritz Seider’s loan from Mannheim of the DEL to Rogle of the SHL. These changes are important, as they signify full-season loans of two of the team’s top prospects. Veleno and Seider are expected to spend the entire 2020-21 season overseas, though the SHL season does usually end in March.

In a rebuilding year for the Red Wings, getting Veleno and Seider playing right away should be considered a benefit for their development. There is no clear schedule for the AHL at this point, and given that the NHL is targeting a January start date that should be considered the very earliest a minor league season could be held. The two first-round picks will instead get to play immediately and will have a full season in one of the best leagues in the world.

The team has also reached agreements with two of their restricted free agents, signing Adam Erne and Taro Hirose to one-year contracts. Both players were not included in yesterday’s qualifying offers, and now we know why. Erne and Hirose will both be back in the organization for at least one more year.

Hirose, 24, was signed out of Michigan State University in 2019 and made an impact down the stretch for the Red Wings, scoring seven points in 10 games. That level of production wasn’t carried into this year, but the entire Red Wings team was brutal and Hirose still did register plenty of offense at the minor league level. With an improved club and higher level of play, perhaps Hirose can still become an impact player for the team.

Erne on the other hand will likely never provide much offense at the NHL level, but can still serve a role as a depth option for the Red Wings this season. In 170 career games he has just 32 points, most coming with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2018-19. Detroit GM Steve Yzerman knows Erne well from their time together with the Lightning and obviously feels he can still play a role in the organization.

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