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Last 10 Restricted Free Agents

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And then there were ten. After Cayden Primeau inked his deal yesterday, there are now ten restricted free agents who have not yet signed contracts for next season. These players must be signed by December 1, or they will not be eligible to play in the NHL at all.

Jason Robertson, the young Dallas Stars forward, leads the way as the most impressive name, though many others represent key players for their respective teams.

The Los Angeles Kings, for instance, have two young defensemen on the list who each showed last season that they could be big parts of the future. Michael Anderson and Sean Durzi were each key in the team’s playoff run, with the former averaging more than 20 minutes a night during the regular season.

Arizona’s Barrett Hayton is a bit of a headscratcher, given how much cap space the team has, but his development has been anything but normal to this point, so it fits the pattern. The 22-year-old forward has played in 94 games at the NHL level and just 35 in the minor leagues since he was selected fifth overall in 2018.

The full list is:

Arizona Coyotes

Barrett Hayton

Calgary Flames

Adam Ruzicka

Dallas Stars

Jason Robertson

Edmonton Oilers

Ryan McLeod

Los Angeles Kings

Michael Anderson
Sean Durzi

New York Islanders

Parker Wotherspoon

Ottawa Senators

Alex Formenton

Toronto Maple Leafs

Rasmus Sandin

Vegas Golden Knights

Nicolas Hague

Several of these players are likely already signed, with teams only waiting to clear additional cap space before officially filing the deals. Others may end up missing part of training camp or even the regular season, as they try to work out the best contract for the present and the future.

Latest On Jason Robertson

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Among the remaining unsigned restricted free agents, a list that includes plenty of talent, there is one name that stands out above the rest. Jason Robertson, the young Dallas Stars phenom, is coming off a 41-goal, 79-point season that had him 13th in Hart Trophy voting in his sophomore season.

One look at the Stars’ Twitter account will show you how anxious fans are for his deal to be completed – even a picture of the right-handed Tyler Seguin sparked excitement, despite Robertson being a lefty.

After signing Jake Oettinger recently, the Stars now sit with about $6.3MM in available cap space, though that number is a bit misleading as it represents a 22-man roster and Anton Khudobin’s entire hit; he or Scott Wedgewood can be put in the minors to open up some extra room.

It sounds like the Stars might be using all of that space to get a deal done with Robertson, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet expects the eventual contract to come in around where Mathew Barzal (3 x $7.0MM) and Elias Pettersson (3 x $7.35MM) ended up on their own bridge deals.

While some may expect a long-term deal, Friedman doesn’t believe that’s what will happen:

I just don’t think they have the ability to do this deal for term. If they couldn’t do Oettinger for term, then they certainly can’t do Robertson for term I don’t think, unless there is another move coming there that I don’t see right now. I wouldn’t expect Robertson right now for term.

Selected 39th overall in 2017, Robertson has been a monster for the Stars through two years, scoring 58 goals and 125 points in 128 career games. His 11 game-winning tallies in 2021-22 led the entire league, and the majority of his production was at even-strength. In fact, with just 14 powerplay assists to this point (compared to 53 at 5v5) there is likely even more offensive potential to unlock in the young forward.

Still, as the Canucks experienced with Pettersson and the Islanders with Barzal, continued point-per-game production is no sure thing in the NHL. Whether because of injury or inconsistency, even young players can be risky bets when you are discussing long-term big-money deals. Bridge contracts offer a team the ability to re-evaluate in a few years, while making sure they have the financial flexibility to stay competitive once the next contract kicks in.

A three-year term would like up Robertson with some expiring deals in Dallas, including captain Jamie Benn’s $9.5MM AAV, Esa Lindell’s $5.8MM, and Ryan Suter’s $3.65MM. At that point, when he and Oettinger need long-term extensions, there will be a few more dollars available.

That’s not to say a long-term deal at this point is impossible, even if Friedman doesn’t believe it will happen. One relatively small trade could open up the room to go bigger and longer for Robertson, if the Stars decide that they are willing to go down that route. Either way, they’ll want their young star in training camp, which is now just a few weeks away.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Brett Connolly Signs In Switzerland

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Another NHL veteran has opted to sign in Europe to continue his professional career. Swiss club HC Lugano announced today that the team has signed winger Brett Connolly to a one-year contract for the 2022-23 season.

Connolly spent the last season and a half in the Chicago Blackhawks organization, where he ended up playing just 19 NHL games compared to 37 AHL games for the Rockford IceHogs. Connolly had just a goal and two assists in those 19 games across the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, while faring much better in the AHL with 35 points in 37 games in 2021-22 for Rockford.

This past season, Connolly’s NHL time was limited in part due to a four-game suspension for interfering with Dallas Stars forward Tanner Kero. With his bloated seven-figure cap hit, Connolly also cleared waivers multiple times. Connolly was bought out this summer with one season remaining on a four-year, $3.5MM AAV deal signed prior to the 2019-20 season.

At the age of 30, this could very well be the last we’ve seen of Connolly in the NHL. The sixth overall pick in 2010 currently has a career total of 101 goals, 94 assists, and 195 points in 536 games.

He’ll be strong offensive reinforcement for Lugano, who also fortified their goaltending by bringing former Edmonton Oilers goalie Mikko Koskinen back to Europe. They’ll look to make it out of the National League quarterfinals for the first time since losing the championship series in 2018.

Examining The Buffalo Sabres’ Financial Future

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When Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams signed center Tage Thompson to an admittedly massive seven-year contract extension earlier this week, it raised some eyebrows considering the lack of consistency from Thompson in his career. Speaking after the fact a few days ago, Adams told The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski that “we’re also being strategic a little bit, to be honest, about the timeline knowing that there’s other guys potentially next summer where we’re going to be in this situation. We want to make sure we’re being strategic on when and how we put these deals together.”

So, given that Adams is envisioning more breakout campaigns from his young stars in 2022-23, how does the Sabres’ financial picture line up with their rise out of their years-long rebuild and the expected salary cap increases?

There are two players next summer who, depending on their campaigns, could demand significant pay raises over their sub-$1MM deals. Both Dylan Cozens and Rasmus Asplund are restricted free agents in 2023, although Cozens does not have arbitration rights.

Cozens is projected to slot right behind Thompson on the team’s depth chart, battling with Casey Mittelstadt for a spot centering their second line. If he wins that battle and sees increased playing time, Cozens’ offensive production is bound to take a step forward from his 38 points last season.

In any event, Cozens’ ceiling likely isn’t the 35+ goal season Thompson is coming off of, either. His development has been more linear, something that tracks well for the Sabres, at least in terms of certainty in contract negotiations. The team still currently has nearly $40MM in cap space to play with next offseason with the projected salary cap increase to $83.5MM, so any major contract the Sabres hand out now really doesn’t force their hand in the slightest.

It’s later on when things would get tricky, when the team is contending and their breakout stars want to capitalize on what should be a rapidly increasing salary cap at that point. From that point of view, betting on their players is a smart move from Adams at the moment. With the team still so far away from the salary cap, it can’t hurt to take a risk on what could be a team-friendly deal in five seasons. Even if the players don’t quite pan out as projected, those are deals that won’t be taking up nearly as much of their salary cap as they are now when they do become an issue.

Though Adams should be careful not to play with too much fire. Recent reports suggest that the first large salary cap jump could come in the 2024 offseason instead of 2025. That would be a boon to the Sabres, who have four major expiring contracts that offseason: Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin, and Owen Power. If everything goes as expected in terms of their development, that could very well be upwards of $30MM handed out just between those four players. If the Sabres put themselves in a position to give those contracts and still have some breathing room, they could finally construct a roster with the required depth to remain at the top of the Eastern Conference.

Oettinger Made It Clear To His Reps That He Wants To Stay Long-Term With Dallas

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As part of his seven-year, $56MM contract that was signed yesterday, Canucks forward J.T. Miller received a full no-move clause.  That in itself isn’t noteworthy but he was eligible to have it apply to the upcoming season as part of the contract as well since he’s of UFA age.  However, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that this was not the case.  As a result, Miller does not have any sort of trade protection between now and July 1st when the NMC kicks in so if things don’t do well next season or Vancouver decides to shake things up, Miller will be trade-eligible even with his new deal in place.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Sabres GM Kevyn Adams told Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News that part of the reason they weren’t overly active in free agency this summer was to give them the flexibility to extend their internal core as their contracts come up. We saw an example of that recently with the seven-year agreement with center Tage Thompson while Dylan Cozens is a year away from a pricey new deal of his own; Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Peyton Krebs are extension-eligible next summer.  If Adams intends to work out long-term deals with all of those players, they’ll need all the flexibility they can get so their discipline this summer will be worth it later.
  • While Jake Oettinger ultimately settled for a three-year, $12MM bridge deal, the netminder told reporters including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that has made it clear to his representatives that he wants to stay in Dallas for the long haul. The contract still represents quite the raise for someone that actually spent a month in the minors last season before being recalled for good in mid-November and his AAV will get a notable bump three years from now as he’ll be owed a $4.8MM qualifying offer.

Classifying The Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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When the calendar flips to September, it’s time to start paying some attention to who’s left unsigned in restricted free agency.  Usually at this point, two months have elapsed since the start of free agency (it’s six weeks this summer) which is typically more than enough time to get a deal done.

There are currently 13 remaining RFAs that haven’t signed elsewhere for next season.  As is usually the case, those players can be grouped into a few tiers which are as follows.

Star Players

Jason Robertson (Dallas)

Generally speaking, there are usually more players in this group at this time but the 23-year-old is the only star player in need of a new deal.  He’s coming off a 41-goal campaign that has the asking price justifiably high – team owner Tom Gaglardi acknowledged it’s in the $7MM range.  The Stars would likely prefer to do a long-term deal that buys out some UFA years but that could push the AAV past $9MM and they don’t have the cap space to do that.  At this point, what GM Jim Nill does or doesn’t do on the trade front might dictate what ultimately happens with Robertson; if they can free up some money, a long-term agreement becomes palatable but otherwise, it’ll almost certainly be a bridge contract.

Underachieving Former First Rounders

Erik Brannstrom (Ottawa), Kirby Dach (Montreal), Barrett Hayton (Arizona), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto)

Dach and Hayton were both top-five picks in their respective draft classes but have yet to show the type of offensive consistency to put them in the category of core players.  Dach was traded to Montreal at the draft after a quiet season that saw him put up nine goals and 26 points, both career-highs.  Despite that, it appears that the Canadiens are at least pondering a medium-term agreement that would run for four years but still leave him RFA-eligible at the end.  Something a little shorter in the $2.5MM range is also an option.  Hayton has just this last season in terms of being a regular under his belt and could fit in a different category than this but his performance relative to draft stock has been concerning.  He’s a prime candidate for a bridge contract and with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, he simply doesn’t have the leverage to command anything longer.  A two-year deal around the $2MM range should be where his deal falls.

As for Brannstrom, he was billed as an offensive defender but has yet to be able to produce with any consistency since joining Ottawa back in 2019.  He has just two career goals in 116 career games but that hasn’t stopped his camp from seeking a multi-year agreement in negotiations which are likely playing a role in this delay.  Sandin could also fit in a different category but the 2018 first-rounder has exhausted his waiver exemption and doesn’t appear to be a fit in their top six next season.  His agent recently bemoaned the lack of progress in negotiations.  Teammate Timothy Liljegren’s two-year bridge deal that has a $1.4MM AAV seems like a reasonable comparable but with playing time being a potential concern, might Sandin be looking for more certainty before putting pen to paper on a new deal?

Young Regulars

Michael Anderson (Los Angeles), Alex Formenton (Ottawa), Nicolas Hague (Vegas)

Formenton played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and it was a good one as the 22-year-old speedster chipped in with 18 goals and 14 assists in 78 games.  The Sens have ample cap space this coming season so there are some options beyond the bridge contract.  If GM Pierre Dorion thinks that Formenton is part of their long-term core, a longer-term pact that buys out a UFA year or two in the $3.5MM range might be a better way for them to go.

Hague has done well in a limited role on the back end for the Golden Knights over the past two seasons and is coming off a year where he logged close to 19 minutes a night.  They’ve already spent most of the LTIR ‘savings’ so Vegas isn’t in a spot to give him a long-term deal.  But is Hague better off taking a one-year contract that would be below market value to acquire arbitration eligibility next summer?  Such a deal would be in the $1.25MM range with the promise of a better payout later on.  Otherwise, a bridge pact that’s closer to $2MM is probably in the cards.  Anderson has logged over 20 minutes a night for the Kings for the last two years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to support a pricey bridge deal.  Los Angeles’ cap space is quite limited so, like Hague, a one-year deal in the $1.25MM range might be where they wind up settling.

Not Fully Established

Sean Durzi (Los Angeles), Ryan McLeod (Edmonton)

McLeod figures to be a part of the long-term plans for the Oilers after a promising rookie campaign but doesn’t have much leverage at this point.  Edmonton’s issue here is cap space as they’re already in a spot where they need to clear money out.  If they can move someone out, a multi-year bridge contract becomes their preferred route but otherwise, he’s a strong candidate for a one-year deal around that $1.25MM threshold as well, perhaps a tad below that.

Durzi quietly put up 27 points in 64 games last season but it’s his only taste of NHL action so the track record isn’t strong enough to command a sizable contract.  A two-year bridge deal makes a lot of sense for him as a repeat performance over that stretch would have him well-positioned to seek $4MM or more two summers from now.  However, with the cap situation for the Kings, they might be forced to push for the one-year, ‘prove it’ contract that would fall in the same range as Anderson.

What’s The Holdup?

Cayden Primeau (Montreal), Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), Parker Wotherspoon (NY Islanders)

Ruzicka played in 28 games last season for the Flames and did reasonably well with ten points but it’s not as if he’s in a position to command a sizable raise.  He’s waiver-eligible but not a guarantee to be claimed if he passes through.  The holdup might be along the lines of making next season a one-way or two-way contract with any subsequent season(s) being a one-way agreement.  Even so, it’s odd this is taking so long.

Wotherspoon’s presence on here is arguably the most perplexing of the bunch.  He opted to not file for salary arbitration which would have gotten him signed weeks ago.  He has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons and has yet to play an NHL game.  Haggling over NHL money would be pointless as a result so accordingly, it’s safe to suggest his NHL pay would be $750K.  At this point, AHL salary or guaranteed money is the only sticking point.  In all likelihood, the gap probably can’t be more than around $25K which is a pretty small one to justify being unsigned this long.

Primeau is coming off a strong showing in the AHL playoffs but struggled mightily in limited NHL action with the Canadiens last season.  Even so, he’s viewed as their potential backup of the future as soon as 2023-24 when he becomes waiver-eligible.  This is a contract that should be a two-way pact next season and then one-way after that as a result and there are enough of those comparable contracts around the league for young goalies that the general framework should basically have been in place before talks even started.  As a result, this is another case that feels like it should have been resolved weeks ago.

There’s still plenty of time to work something out with training camps still a couple of weeks away and several of these players should come off the board by then but there will likely be a handful still unsigned when camps get underway.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jason Robertson Seeking Bridge Deal In $7MM Range

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There has been a greater emphasis on paying young stars big money early in recent years and it would appear that at least one team owner isn’t a fan of that.  Speaking on the Cam and Strick Podcast (audio link) earlier this week, Stars owner Tom Gaglardi lamented the current contract landscape across the league:

While not naming him specifically, it’s quite clear that the 40-goal player he’s referencing is Jason Robertson who led the Stars with 41 goals in 74 games last season.  If the asking price on a short-term deal is in the $7MM range as Gaglardi suggests, Dallas will almost certainly have to do a bridge deal to get the 23-year-old under contract without having to part with another player.  They have a little over $6.3MM in projected room at the moment, per CapFriendly, but that could jump closer to $7.5MM if Anton Khudobin is healthy and is sent to the minors.

Dallas Stars Sign Jake Oettinger

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The Dallas Stars have signed restricted free agent goaltender Jake Oettinger to a bridge deal, inking him for the next three years. The deal will come with an average annual value of $4MM, and leave him an arbitration-eligible RFA at expiry. General manager Jim Nill explained just how important Oettinger is to the team:

Jake’s performance spoke for itself last season. He has elite physical ability and presence in the net, while also exhibiting phenomenal mental strength in high-pressure situations. Jake’s poise and character off the ice have made him a leader in our locker room. He has shown that he has the skill, work ethic, and poise to excel at the NHL level. He was a key part of the team’s success last season, and we’re excited to see him continue to grow here in Dallas.

Oettinger, 23, was one of three players the Stars selected in 2017 that have gone on to become franchise cornerstones. He was picked between Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson that day, a draft that essentially changed the direction of the team thanks to some savvy scouting. The big netminder took a few years to develop but now sits as the Stars’ no-doubt starter for next season, after recording a .914 save percentage in 48 appearances last year.

It was the playoffs where he really showed what he could do, though, posting a .954 in seven games to almost steal the first round from the Calgary Flames. With a bright future ahead of him and Robertson still to sign, a bridge deal always made sense for the young netminder. A $4MM cap hit still pays him handsomely while setting Oettinger up for an even bigger deal a few years down the line.

For Dallas, kicking the can down the road a few years was integral, as Jamie Benn’s $9.5MM will be coming off the books after the 2024-25 season. Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, and Radek Faksa are also scheduled to be unrestricted free agents that summer, meaning Nill and the rest of the front office will finally get some flexibility back. A longer contract is expected for Robertson, who has already established himself as an elite offensive player in the league after scoring 41 goals and 79 points this season.

The Stars still have more than $6.3MM for that contract and could create more by waiving someone before the season begins (or sending one of their entry-level players back down). All of that space will likely be needed for Robertson’s contract, meaning this deal for Oettinger was never going to be able to get much bigger.

While there is no guarantee that he lives up to it, early returns on the big Minnesota native are promising. If Oettinger takes another step forward next season and starts putting up .920 save percentages, a $4MM cap hit will look like quite the bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dallas Stars Prospect Conner Roulette Traded In WHL

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  • A big trade went down in the WHL this afternoon, the Saskatoon Blades announcing they’ve acquired forward Conner Roulette and a third-round pick in the 2026 WHL prospects draft from the Seattle Thunderbirds in exchange for overage forward Kyle Crnkovic (link). The 20-year-old Crnkovic spent the previous five seasons with the Blades organization. Always a solid contributor, he broke out in 2021-22, tallying 39 goals and 55 assists in 68 games for Saskatoon. Roulette, 19, was a fourth-round pick of the Dallas Stars in 2021 and has spent the previous four years with the Thunderbirds, having his own breakout this past season with 24 goals and 42 assists in 65 contests.

Latest On Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger

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  • Two of the Dallas Stars’ best players, Jake Oettinger and Jason Robertson, are still without a contract for next season. The Athletic’s Saad Yousuf issued an update on the contract situations of the two players today, reporting that contract talks continue to “move at a snail’s pace.” (subscription link) The negotiations have reportedly played out like a “staring contest”  between the players’ camps and the Stars, and Yousuf attributes the lack of any competitive pressure (possibility of an offer sheet, the looming start of training camp) to the slow pace of the deals. Oettinger and Robertson are still overwhelmingly likely to have deals in place before training camp, but it seems recently there hasn’t been any momentum towards actually getting those contracts ironed out.

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