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Trade Candidate: Jack Johnson

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

After a public bankruptcy case and a diminishing role with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Jack Johnson requested a trade. He felt backed into a corner, and needed to act to ensure financial stability for his family after his player career ends. Since news of the request broke, Johnson’s ice time has once again increased. Will the Blue Jackets move him somewhere else, or give him the important minutes he needs to showcase for his next contract?

Jack JohnsonContract

Johnson is in the final season of a seven-year, $30.5MM contract—$4.36MM cap hit, $5.0MM salary. He will be a UFA in July, and holds no trade protection.

2017-18

With the increased roles of young defensemen Zach Werenski, Seth Jones and Markus Nutivaara, Johnson has seen his impact on the Blue Jackets decrease in his final year under contract. Once a powerplay quarterback and perennial 30-40 point producer, the 31-year old has been limited to defensive specialist and penalty killer for nearly two seasons. His offensive production this season has been non-existent, with only seven points through 50 games.

Tough matchups and starting nearly 60% of his shifts in the defensive zone are part of the explanation for that lack of production, but so is a normal decline in mobility and explosiveness as he navigates his thirties. He’s turned into a solid penalty killing option for the Blue Jackets, and has astoundingly taken just four minor penalties all season. There is clearly still a role for Johnson in the NHL, but with other more dynamic offensive talents on the market like Mike Green, it will be hard for him to secure an opportunity better than the one he still enjoys in Columbus.

Season Stats

50 GP, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, -7 rating, 8 PIM, 61 shots, 19:35 ATOI, 45.9 CF%

Potential Suitors

There is never a shortage of teams looking for experienced help on the blue line as the stretch run approaches, and Johnson’s name will certainly be among those that draw inquiries. Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Washington, and the New York Islanders could all fit Johnson in under the right circumstances, though it’s not clear if any have reached out at this point.

One fit that does seem to stick out is that of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have been looking for defensive help for some time. Though Travis Dermott’s debut has gone well to this point, their depth at the position is still razor thin as showcased when Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev were both out of the lineup. If the Maple Leafs decide to acquire another veteran option, Johnson could stick out as a possibility. The defenseman’s handedness (left) doesn’t help him in this scenario, but with the ability of Rielly, Dermott and Ron Hainsey to play their off-side, Mike Babcock would still have plenty of options.

Likelihood Of A Trade

A few weeks ago a trade seemed like an inevitability in the case of Johnson, who was struggling on the ice and seeing the bench more than ever before. Now though, a move doesn’t seem quite as certain. Every team needs depth on defense, and Columbus are in an absolute dog fight for the playoffs in the Metropolitan Division. With Ryan Murray—a trade candidate himself—still fighting to get back from injury, Johnson is needed to soak up minutes on the PK and shelter some of the more offensive options the Blue Jackets have.

It wouldn’t at all be surprising to see him on another team come February 26th, but it is far from certain. If the Blue Jackets decide that they’re going for it this season, and can’t find a deal for the top-nine forward they desperately want, holding onto Johnson could be the best option. Though he doesn’t come with much playoff experience, he does come with incredible success. In 23 postseason contests, Johnson has 21 points and logged a whopping 26 minutes a night last playoffs for the Blue Jackets.

Including Pittsburgh as an example from last season, the playoffs can grind through a defense corps and put you on your seventh, eighth or ninth option quickly. If there isn’t a deal for a forward to be found, maybe Johnson will have to prove himself once again in Columbus.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Minor Transactions: 01/30/18

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The unofficial second half of the 2017-18 season is underway tonight, with 12 teams in action after the All-Star break. One of the most interesting matchups might by the Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets, both currently leading their division but dealing with troublesome injuries. The Lightning are without Victor Hedman, while the Jets are missing both Mark Scheifele and Jacob Trouba. As the dozen teams get ready to resume their schedule, we’ll keep track of all the minor transactions around the league.

Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point

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It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:

Atlantic Division

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
  2. Boston Bruins – 115 points
  3. Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
  4. Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
  5. Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
  6. Florida Panthers – 77 points
  7. Ottawa Senators – 68 points
  8. Buffalo Sabres – 62 points

Metropolitan Division

  1. Washington Capitals – 105 points
  2. New Jersey Devils – 96 points
  3. Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
  4. Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
  5. Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
  6. New York Islanders – 90 points
  7. New York Rangers – 90 points
  8. Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points

Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus

Central Division

  1. Nashville Predators – 113 points
  2. Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
  3. St. Louis Blues – 101 points
  4. Dallas Stars – 98 points
  5. Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
  6. Minnesota Wild – 95 points
  7. Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points

Pacific Division

  1. Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
  2. San Jose Sharks – 101 points
  3. Calgary Flames – 97 points
  4. Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
  5. Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
  6. Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
  7. Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
  8. Arizona Coyotes – 54 points

Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary

The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

Minor Transactions: 01/29/18

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As January comes to a close, the NHL resumes a normal schedule and teams across the league try to make a push for the playoffs. The trade deadline, which comes in just a few weeks will bring new addresses for some of the very best players, while along the way many minor moves will be made to help the edges of a roster. We’ll keep track of all the day’s minor transactions right here.

Western Notes: Sedins, Doughty, Golden Knights, Hyka

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Recent comments from Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin suggest the twin brothers are hoping for another year in Vancouver. Already 37 and trending downwards in their career, the struggling Canucks were considered to be sellers at the trade deadline. However, the Sedin twins return also might throw a wrench into general manager Jim Benning’s deadline plans.

While the team has several key trade chips to move, including veteran scorer Thomas Vanek and defenseman Erik Gudbranson, Benning might be more likely to retain or extend them to surround the Sedin twins with veteran players, according to J.D. Burke of The Athletic (subscription required). The scribe begins by pointing out that the Sedin’s decision will have major implications to the salary cap and the look of the team. The cost to retain both soon-to-be 38-year-old forwards will be about $10MM, estimates Burke, who adds the team would have to make a decision whether to keep Vanek with the team.

If the Sedin’s stay, will Benning look for assets that might benefit the veteran Sedins, rather than focus on the team’s need to rebuild. Benning has often preferred to acquire players, rather than trade for picks. The team has a lot of prospects coming through the system already, but not trading their assets at the deadline could hurt the future of the team down the road as well. No one is saying the Sedin twins shouldn’t come back. They have been with the franchise since they started their careers and should be welcomed, but not at the expense of the team’s future.

  • Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty spoke to the media today at the all-star’s media day. According to Los Angeles’ Times writer Helene Elliott, Doughty said that money and term aren’t the only factor in the way he will approach free agency in 2018-19. “I don’t know if a lot of people think our future looks bright but I think our future does as the L.A. Kings organization,” Doughty said. “We’ve got some young guys that aren’t with us yet that will make a difference in a couple years. We still have that core group of guys. I think we’re trending in the right direction and getting back to hopefully where we were a few years back.”
  • Yahoo Sports’ Ryan Lambert writes that while the praise that goes towards Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee is well earned, he believes that Vegas’ unbelievable success should fall on the shoulder of all the other teams’ general managers. The scribe writes that if other general managers had done a better job managing their own rosters, the Golden Knights wouldn’t have been able to get better quality players and picks in order to pad their roster in the initial first year. The expansion draft should net expansion team with back-end forwards and defensemen and No. 2 goalies. However, Florida Panther general manager Dave Talon just handed two top-six forwards to Vegas to get rid of the contract of Reilly Smith, while they opted to move on from Jonathan Marchessault because they didn’t believe he could repeat his 30-goal season from last year. The same can be said for the Minnesota Wild, who gave Vegas forward Alex Tuch and Erik Haula in exchange for draft considerations. There were so many draft considerations from plenty of other teams such as the New York Islanders, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning. Had general managers made better decisions, perhaps the Golden Knights wouldn’t be the top team in the West. Lambert also adds that the team still has 10 draft picks that will fall in the first two rounds over the next three years. Doesn’t look like Vegas is going anywhere.
  • Still with the Golden Knights, SinBinVegas tweets that prospect Tomas Hyka, who was scheduled to play in the AHL All-Star game on Jan. 29, has been replaced with T.J. Tynan as Hyka is now listed as “unavailable for the game.” Vegas plays its first game after the all-star break on Jan. 30, suggesting Hyka might get called up instead. The 24-year-old wing, who signed out of the Czech. Republic, has 12 goals and 31 points in 32 games with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves.

All-Star Skills Competition Assignments Released

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With the All-Star game one day away, many NHL fans often get more excited for the 2018 GEICO NHL All-Star Skills Competition, which will be tonight. The NHL released the list of who will be participating in each of the six competitions with the winner of each receiving $25K.

Enterprise NHL Fastest Skater – Each skater is timed for one full lap around the rink.
Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Rickard Rakell (Anaheim Ducks)
Noah Hanifin (Carolina Hurricanes)
Josh Bailey (New York Islanders)
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Jack Eichel (Buffalo Sabres)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)

Dunkin Donuts NHL Passing Challenge – Requires three skills over one round, including Target Passing (making four passes to a target that light up randomly), Give-and-Go (must complete four successful passes through a course in the neutral zone) and Mini Nets (must complete four passes over barricades and into mini-nets).
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers)
Brayden Schenn (St. Louis Blues)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Arizona Coyotes)
Eric Staal (Minnesota Wild)
Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis Blues)
Kris Letang (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings)

GEICO NHL Save Streak – Goalies attempt to win by making the most consecutive saves against an opposing division on a minimum of nine shots.
Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers) vs. Central Division
Connor Hellebuyck (Vancouver Canucks) vs. Pacific Division
Pekka Rinne (Nashville Predators) vs. Metropolitan Division
Marc-Andre Fleury (Vegas Golden Knights) vs. Atlantic Division
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) vs. Central Division

Gatorade NHL Puck Control Relay – A timed event that involves three skills, including Stickhandling (where a skater must control a puck through a series of eight pucks in a straight line), Cone Control (where a skater controls a puck through a series of eight cones in a zig-zag formation) and Gates (where a skater must shoot or choose to guide the puck through a lighted rung of a gate).
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary Flames)
Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)
Erik Karlsson (Ottawa Senators)
John Tavares (New York Islanders)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Tyler Seguin (Dallas Stars)
Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks)

PPG NHL Hardest Shot – Over two rounds, each player will attempt two shots measured in miles per hour with the highest speed recorded.
John Klingberg (Dallas Stars)
Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
P.K. Subban (Nashville Predators)
Brent Burns (San Jose Sharks)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Honda NHL Shooting Accuracy – A timed event in which a skater is positioned 25 feet behind the goal line and must shoot at five LED targets in the goal. A target will light up and the players has three seconds to hit it.
Brian Boyle (New Jersey Devils)
Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg Jets)
James Neal (Vegas Golden Knights)
Brock Boeser (Vancouver Canucks)
Brad Marchand (Boston Bruins)
Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings)
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Jordan Schroeder Clears Waivers, Gets Assigned To Cleveland

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  • After clearing waivers (per Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston on Twitter), the Blue Jackets have assigned winger Jordan Schroeder to Cleveland of the AHL, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). It’s the second time that Schroeder has cleared waivers this season but since he has been up for more than a month under non-emergency conditions, he had to pass through once again.  The 27-year-old has a goal and an assist in 21 games with Columbus this season while adding eight points (3-5-8) in 15 minor league appearances.  Taking Schroeder’s place on the Columbus roster is defenseman Andre Benoit who has a goal and four assists with Cleveland in 31 games and last saw NHL action with St. Louis back in 2015-16.  His recall is likely just to keep the team at the minimum 20 players on the roster.

Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages

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The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.

"<strongMinnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.

William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.

If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.

He also is a restricted free agent this summer.

The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.

There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.

Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.

The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.

Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.

The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Rangers, Dahlin, Johnson

at CDT | by 9 Comments

The New York Rangers are currently just a single point out of a playoff spot, and two points out of second place in the Metropolitan Division, but according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post that won’t make them buyers at the deadline. In fact, Brooks writes that the Rangers are preparing to “blow it up” and are willing to deal Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello along with their rental options.

It’s not the first time we’ve heard McDonagh’s name mentioned, as he currently sits tenth on the TSN Trade Bait board, but is still might come as a surprise. The Rangers captain has logged 24 minutes a night again this season, and currently has 24 points through 45 games. While he may not match his career-high of 14 goals, he’s certainly a bargain at his $4.7MM cap hit this year and next.

  • Welcome to “the Rasmus Dahlin draft” writes TSN insider Bob McKenzie, who released his early rankings for the 2018 NHL Entry Draft today. Dahlin tops the board like everywhere else, but McKenzie’s rankings do differ from some of the other leading sources. Perhaps most notably is Ryan Merkley at #11, as the dynamic Guelph defenseman has slipped to the back half of the first round in most other rankings. McKenzie explains why, noting Merkley’s perceived attitude problem and temperament as potential reasons for his fall.
  • Darren Dreger was on TSN 1050 radio today, and said that he’d be “shocked” if the Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Lou Lamoriello hadn’t called on Jack Johnson from the Columbus Blue Jackets. As noted in our most recent live chat, Johnson does seem like a pretty good fit for the Maple Leafs down the stretch as he tries to secure a long-term contract this summer. Johnson is looking for an opportunity to play a big role somewhere, and the Maple Leafs have had a revolving door in the back half of their defense corps. Still, with Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev returning from injury soon and Travis Dermott showing he’s ready for the NHL, the Maple Leafs aren’t guaranteed to be on the market any longer.

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