Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark
Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.
The Buffalo Sabres are 50/50 on settling arbitration cases so far this summer, coming to an agreement with Remi Elie prior to a hearing, but going through the process with Evan Rodrigues. They remarkably have two cases left with just two hearing dates remaining. The first, scheduled for Friday, is with 26-year-old homegrown goaltender Linus Ullmark. Ullmark’s performance as well as his role with the team has been up and down over his career and there is no consensus as to whether he is still growing into a future starter or has settled into a backup position. That much was evident when the two sides exchanged filing numbers, as the two figures were drastically far apart. The Sabres prevailed against Rodrigues in a case that seemingly favored the player; will they do so again? Here is a closer look at the case:
The Case of Linus Ullmark
Career Statistics: 63 games played, 24 wins, .910 save percentage, 2.87 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 37 games played, 15 wins, .905 save percentage, 3.11 goals against average
Filing Numbers: Ullmark – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $800K (midpoint: $1.725MM)
Player Side
Themes:
- Starting-Caliber Goaltender: strong 2017-18 numbers in NHL and AHL; comparable numbers to starter Carter Hutton in platform season; higher quality start percentage than Hutton in platform season
- Lacking Opportunity: strong numbers in 20 appearances as a rookie in 2015-16, made only six appearances over the next two seasons; Sabres were ninth-worst in shots allowed in platform season, lacked opportunity to play behind competent defense
Team Side
Themes:
- Backup-Caliber Goaltender: inferior statistics to starter Hutton in platform season; SV% and GAA ranked in bottom ten among 48 goalies with at least 30 appearances in platform season; unable to earn more appearances in prior seasons
- Unreliable Goaltender: cannot handle regular NHL workload, numbers in five appearances in 2017-18 far superior to numbers as primary backup in 2018-19; allowed four or more goals in 15 appearances, including seven of final twelve appearances and five times in back-to-back appearances
Potential Comparable Player:
David Rittich (2019)
Career Statistics: 67 games played, 35 wins, .909 save percentage, 2.70 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 45 games played, 27 wins, .911 save percentage, 2.61 goals against average
Salary: $2.75MM
- Player’s argument: Similar career numbers; similar age, size, developmental path
- Team’s counter: Rittich had substantially better numbers in the platform season; has shown steady improvement at NHL level, eventually winning starting role; Rittich has better quality start percentage, more reliable and consistent performances
Prediction
There are not many great cases for arbitration-eligible goaltenders with Ullmark’s level of NHL experience. That serves to benefit him though, as one such player is a case settled last week in Rittich. Although Rittich’s new $2.75MM salary is more than Ullmark’s side filed for, they can acknowledge Rittich’s superior play in the platform season and still argue that the career numbers are similar enough to warrant their $2.65MM ask. As for the Sabres, they can easily argue that Rittich is on a much better trajectory than Ullmark, but the player side may admit to that themselves. They’ll have to really hammer home the contrast between the two goalies if they are to use Rittich’s case to their advantage. Otherwise, Buffalo will have to dig deep to find a different case that both fits the criteria for a case that can be used in a hearing and also makes sense as a comparable player, so they can add additional points to their argument. It’s going to be tough, though. The Sabres pulled out a surprise against Rodrigues, but don’t expect them to do it again. Anticipate a potential award to land somewhere in the $2.1-2.3MM range.
Remi Elie Agrees To Terms With Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres have avoided arbitration with Remi Elie, agreeing to terms with the young forward to a one-year, two-way contract worth $700K at the NHL level. Elie was scheduled for an arbitration hearing today.
Elie, 24, ended up playing in 16 games for the Sabres last season after being claimed off of waivers at the beginning of the season. He would then clear waivers a few months later and finish the season in the minor leagues, a place he may have to get used to for the time being. The two-way deal would seem to indicate that both parties are expecting him to spend some time in the AHL in 2019-20.
With 106 NHL games to his name Elie will not qualify for Group VI unrestricted free agency next summer, meaning the Sabres will retain his rights once again with a qualifying offer. That is of course if they believe he’s worthy of one, something he’ll have to prove once again. Selected 40th overall in 2013, Elie has recorded just 22 points at the NHL level in those 106 contests, and hasn’t even dominated the minor leagues in his sporadic time there. Some consistency and playing time may help him turn a corner, but there is still a long way to go before he’s a real impact player for the Sabres.
Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres Exchange Arbitration Figures
Linus Ullmark has an arbitration hearing scheduled for Friday and the figures have been submitted from both sides. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that Ullmark has filed for $2.65MM while the Buffalo Sabres only submitted an $800K salary. That’s quite the gap, though it is important to remember that the two sides can still negotiate a new contract up until the hearing (and for a short period afterwards). Unlike other sports, arbitration also does not pick one filing or the other but will determine some sort of middle ground for Ullmark’s next deal.
The 26-year old goaltender was given a chance to establish himself as the top option last season, but still wasn’t able to really take advantage of the opportunity. In 37 games for the Sabres he recorded just a .905 save percentage and 15-14-5 record. A huge part of that is the way the team played down the stretch, losing their early season momentum completely and falling further and further into the familiar territory near the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings. But there were too many nights that Ullmark just wasn’t the kind of difference-making goaltender that he has projected as for the last several years.
Originally selected by the Sabres in the sixth round of the 2012 draft, the 6’4″ Ullmark made a name for himself in Sweden before coming over to North America. In his first professional season on this side of the ocean he ended up having to play in 20 games for the Sabres when they dealt with injury. In those games he showed incredible promise, posting a .913 save percentage. He wouldn’t get that kind of NHL opportunity again until last season.
He will almost certainly not receive anything above $2MM on the arbitration decision, but even a $1.5MM salary would complicate things for the Sabres. The team has two other arbitration hearings on the books for Jake McCabe and Remi Elie but already project to have just $3.1MM in cap space. While there is room to be made in training camp by waiving some of the players who won’t play big roles in the NHL, the Sabres will be spending up to the cap this season and so far have nothing to show for it. After committing $80MM to Jack Eichel in 2017 and $72MM to Jeff Skinner just last month, the team absolutely must start competing for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Ullmark could be a huge key to that if he’s given the chance to become the starter, something that Carter Hutton will certainly have something to say about.
Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres
It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.
Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.
- The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
- If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.
Evan Rodrigues Receives Arbitration Award
Another player has received an arbitration award, as Evan Rodrigues signs a one-year, $2MM contract with the Buffalo Sabres. Rodrigues had filed for a $2.65MM salary while the Sabres filed for just $1.5MM. The Sabres still have hearings scheduled with Remi Elie and Linus Ullmark for early next month.
Rodrigues, 25, is coming off his first full season in the NHL and recorded 29 points last season in 74 games. A former teammate of Jack Eichel at Boston University, Rodrigues was an undrafted free agent when he decided to sign with the Sabres in 2015. After showing he could hang at the NHL level in the 2017-18 season, he has now established himself as a full-time roster option for them moving forward.
No, the 5’10” center is not going to be mistaken for a star offensive player anytime soon, but giving the Sabres strong minutes down the middle is still valuable. Rodrigues has been moved around the lineup through his young career and also contributed last season on the powerplay and penalty kill, giving him a huge amount of versatility as they try to build the roster up. With new additions like Marcus Johansson and Jimmy Vesey figuring into the top-six it’s unlikely that Rodrigues will find a ton of minutes in that group, but he may have the most upside in that next group including players like Johan Larsson and Zemgus Girgensons.
The real test for Buffalo this season will be trying to get enough production out of that bottom-six to really compete, something that is far from decided at this point. The team obviously has some elite talent at the top of the lineup with Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Jeff Skinner, but will need more competitiveness on a nightly basis from the rest. New head coach Ralph Krueger is certainly known for his ability to motivate players, something that the Sabres will hopefully experience this year as they try to compete for a playoff spot in the difficult Atlantic Division.
Arbitration Breakdown: Evan Rodrigues
Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.
Already, two players have gone to hearing and are awaiting an arbitrator’s decision: the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp and the Washington Capitals’ Christian Djoos. The next possibility is Buffalo Sabres forward Evan Rodrigues, whose hearing is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Rodrigues really only has a season and half of experience as a regular player, but after an outstanding second half on 2017-18, he has established himself as a bona fide NHL talent and has plenty of ammunition ready for an arbitration battle. Here is a closer look at his case:
The Case of Evan Rodrigues
Career Statistics: 154 games played, 21 goals, 41 assists, 62 points, -22 rating
Platform Statistics: 74 games played, 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points, -7 rating
Filing Numbers: Rodrigues – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.075MM)
Player Side
Themes:
- Top-Six Forward: among top six Sabres forwards in points and assists per game and points and assists total in platform season; fourth among Sabres forwards in ATOI in platform season; fourth in total shots and shots per game in platform season (victim of abnormally low shooting percentage)
- Dependable Player: regular role on power play and penalty kill in platform season; third in face-offs taken in platform season; 59% defensive zone starts in platform season
Potential Comparable Players:
Melker Karlsson (2017)
Career Statistics: 185 games played, 34 goals, 31 assists, 65 points, +9 rating
Platform Statistics: 67 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, +7 rating
Salary: $2MM
- Player’s argument: Rodrigues has better career points per game; Rodrigues has better points per game in platform season; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
- Team’s counter: Karlsson is better career goal scorer; Karlsson did not have same opportunity in platform season – ATOI, power play ATOI, line mate talent; Karlsson is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI
Alex Iafallo (2019)
Career Statistics: 157 games played, 24 goals, 34 assists, 58 points, -7 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points, -17 rating
Salary: $2.425MM
- Player’s argument: very similar offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season and career (over very similar NHL experience); Rodrigues with slightly better career points per game in less ATOI career; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
- Team’s counter: Iafallo has two full seasons of NHL experience and top-six minutes; Iafallo has better goal scoring numbers in platform season and career; Iafallo is more physical player
Team Side
Themes:
- Not a Top-Six Forward: offensive numbers do not match up with top-six production league wide – role is product of thin Sabres roster last season; outside top six Sabres forwards in goal scoring, power plat ATOI
- Limited Upside: regression in platform season – .52 points per game to .39 points per game; not a goal scorer – low career goal totals, shooting percentage; poor face-off numbers; limited experience at advanced age
Potential Comparable Players:
Bryan Rust (2018)
Career Statistics: 181 games, 33 goals, 46 assists, 79 points, +13 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11 rating
Salary: $3.5MM
- Team’s argument: Rust has better career offensive totals an per game numbers; Rust has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Rust is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI; Rust has considerable postseason experience, production, and achievement
- Player’s counter: Rust’s AAV is considerably higher than midpoint; Rodrigues’ career-high games played is higher than Rust’s – more dependable player; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
J.T. Compher (2019)
Career Statistics: 156 games played, 32 goals, 28 assists, 60 points, -37 rating
Platform Statistics: 66 games played, 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points, -7 rating
Salary: $3.5MM
- Team’s argument: Compher had far better per game offensive numbers in platform season; Compher has better career goal-scoring numbers; Compher is better defensive player – hits, blocked shots, face-off success, shorthanded ATOI; Compher is considerably younger
- Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers
Prediction
This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, Rodrigues has a pretty good chance in this case. Although Rodrigues’ numbers may very well be a product of a top-six role that he will no longer have moving forward, the Sabres can’t show that in a hearing and thus must deal with the fact that they needed him in that capacity over the last season and a half. There is a strong argument to be made that each of these comparable players is better than Rodrigues, but the fact that their cap numbers are at or above the midpoint, Rust and Compher substantially so, is a major benefit to the player side. Even if Buffalo can hammer home the point that Rust and Compher are much better players with far superior platform seasons, they will likely struggle to drive the price too far past Iafallo’s $2.425MM. He and Rodrigues are incredibly similar. Unless the Sabres get really creative with other comparable players, expect a potential decision to land in that range, between $2.3-2.5MM.
Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres Exchange Arbitration Figures
In a strange twist, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Buffalo Sabres and RFA forward Evan Rodrigues have exchanged arbitration figures ahead of their scheduled Tuesday hearing. The timeline is actually appropriate for both sides, but oddly the information comes out while the three cases scheduled for Monday – Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar, Pittsburgh’s Zach Aston-Reese, and Washington’s Christian Djoos – have yet to have their filing numbers leaked. Regardless, the numbers are in for Buffalo and Rodrigues. The player side has filed at $2.65MM and the team side has filed at $1.5MM. The resulting midpoint for the case is $2.075MM. It is important to remember that not only can the two sides still negotiate a different deal in the time remaining (and even for a short period after the hearing), the arbitration decision also does not need to be one figure or the other. The award can (and usually does) fall somewhere in the middle of the submitted salaries.
Rodrigues, who turns 26 next week, has been a project player for the Sabres that has panned out over the past two seasons. A highly productive college player at Boston University, who put up a whopping 61 points in 41 games skating alongside Jack Eichel in his senior year, Rodrigues was a no-brainer as an undrafted free agent signing for Buffalo in 2015. However, he played in only two NHL games as a first-year pro and was very quiet through 30 NHL games in year two. In total, he notched only eight points in his first 32 NHL games. That all changed in 2017-18, when Rodrigues took advantage of a mid-season call-up to record 25 points in 48 games to finish among the Sabres’ top six forwards in per game production. Handed a regular role this season, Rodrigues continued to impress with a career-high nine goals and 29 points in 74 games.
The debate moving forward – which is difficult in arbitration, where projections are not allowed – is what Rodrigues’ ceiling will be. Although his total points increased in 2018-19, it was a modest gain considering he played in 26 more games. However, Rodrigues’ side can point to an unusually low 5.4% shooting percentage, though the argument may not carry much weight. Instead, the real benefit to the player side is that Rodrigues proved he can be a regular contributor. The slick center skated in almost 16 minutes per night, fourth-most among Buffalo forwards, was third in face-offs taken (although he was not very successful), and again finished among the top six scoring forwards.
It’s hard to argue that Rodrigues is not a useful forward, but the Sabres can make a strong argument that his usage was a function of a thin roster up front and his production given his minutes and role are not exactly stunning. He failed to show that his 2017-18 breakout was a level of output that he was capable of continuing. Instead, Rodrigues is likely a bottom-six forward for most NHL teams rather than the top-six forward he has been for Buffalo over the past season and a half. The team will try to make the case that he should be paid as such. Given their additions of Marcus Johansson and Jimmy Vesey this summer, the Sabres may very well have plans to move Rodrigues further down in the lineup, but again that is not an argument they can make at hearing. It’s a curious case that could make for a fascinating back-and-forth in front of the arbitrator.
Poll: How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?
In the NHL, the salary arbitration process is more often used as a negotiating tool – an incentive to get a deal done before the uncomfortable setting of a hearing and the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision – than it is for its actual purpose. A vast majority of players who file for arbitration end up settling before their hearing or even at the last moment before an award is handed down. Last year, 44 players filed for arbitration and 40 settled prior to their hearing. The year before, all 30 cases were resolved before an arbitration award could be made.
So what about this year? There were initially 40 cases of player-elected arbitration and one case of team-elected arbitration (the St. Louis Blues and goalie Ville Husso), but that number is now down to 25 open cases. That’s a substantial drop-off, but time is running out for some RFA’s and their teams to come to terms, as the first scheduled hearing is set to take place on Saturday, July 20th. Listed below are all of the remaining cases:
July 20: Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes
July 21: Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets
July 22: MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers; Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins; Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues; Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals
July 23: Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres
July 24: Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues; Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
July 25: Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers
July 26: Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
July 27: Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
July 28: Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
July 29: David Rittich, Calgary Flames; Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
August 1: Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres; Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
August 2: Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres; Charles Hudon, Montreal Canadiens; Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
August 4: Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres; Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes; Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche; Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators; Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues
Given the time constraints and the complexity of each of these cases, how many will feel forced to go to hearing? Will Trouba be one of that select group, as he was last year? Will the Sabres struggle to settle four cases before their scheduled hearing dates? Will the Blues see through their team-elected case with Husso? Will other goalies prove to be difficult negotiations? And will polarizing players like Bennett and Buchnevich fail to find common ground with their teams? Or will it be under-the-radar players like Gemel Smith and Brett Kulak last year who go through the full process?
There are many questions left about this group of restricted free agents and time is running out before we know the answers. So the choice is yours: will we see an unprecedented class of arbitration awards or will all or most cases reach a resolution in the coming weeks?
How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?
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3-4 36% (200)
-
5-6 25% (139)
-
1-2 17% (95)
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9+ 10% (57)
-
7-8 8% (44)
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None 4% (20)
Total votes: 555
[Mobile users click here to vote]
Dylan Cozens Signs Entry-Level Contract
Though he won’t be participating in the Buffalo Sabres’ on-ice camps while he rehabs from thumb surgery, Dylan Cozens has signed his three-year entry-level contract. Cozens was the seventh overall pick in this June’s draft, but was given a 2-3 month recovery timeline following surgery ten days ago. If the 18-year old forward returns to the WHL this season, his contract would slide forward a year.
The Sabres were thrilled to get Cozens in the draft this year, after he was considered a potential top-3 pick at points during the season. Though other forwards leapfrogged him by the time draft day rolled around, there’s a ton for Buffalo fans to get excited about with the young center. One of the best skaters in the entire draft class, Cozens used his speed and size to steamroll the competition in the WHL, scoring 34 goals and 84 points in 68 games for the Lethbridge Hurricanes. He was a real difference maker for the Canadian U18 team as well, winning gold at the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup and adding nine points in seven games at the U18 World Juniors.
Unfortunately the injury means that Cozens likely won’t be able to compete for a spot with Buffalo right out of training camp. If that’s true and he returns to Lethbridge, he would also likely be on the U20 World Junior team in December and could potentially be a candidate for WHL MVP. His game is already relatively refined at both ends of the rink, but with some time to add even more strength he could quickly prove too much for junior.
Buffalo Sabres Sign Johan Larsson
The Buffalo Sabres have reached an agreement with another one of their restricted free agents, signing Johan Larsson to a one-year, $1.55MM contract. Larsson was eligible for arbitration this year but decided not to file, instead accepting his qualifying offer. He will be an unrestricted free agent next summer
Larsson, 26, has been a full-time player in the Sabres lineup for the last several seasons, but never did become anything more than a defensive center for the club. Originally selected 56th overall in 2010 by the Minnesota Wild, he was a big part of the original Jason Pominville deal back in 2013. Even though he has put up solid point totals at the minor league level, that offense never materialized in the NHL and Larsson has posted just 79 points in 330 games with the Sabres. He reached a career-high 10 goals in 2015-16 but hasn’t been able to crack six in a single year since.
Still, there is value in his game at the bottom of the Sabres lineup as a penalty killing and matchup option. He averaged more short-handed ice time than any Buffalo forward not named Zemgus Girgensons, and was almost exclusively used for faceoffs in the defensive zone. Even as the Sabres try to add some more punch up front with players like Marcus Johansson and Jimmy Vesey, Larsson’s role in the bottom-six is likely relatively safe.
The question will be whether or not the team wants to keep him around past this season. The Sabres currently project to have six different forwards reach unrestricted free agency next summer, and none of them are so key to the operation that an extension is crucial. Instead the team could look very different in 2020-21, with some young players or more trades taking the place of these veteran depth options.