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August Free Agency Update: Atlantic Division

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As even most mid-tier free agents are now off the market, it’s a good time to look at how each team has fared on the free agent market this offseason. We’re publishing a list of one-way signings (i.e., likelier to start the season on the NHL roster) by team, per division, to keep you updated on NHL player movement since the new league year began on July 1.

Asterisked players denote a restricted free agent. Double-asterisked players denote the contract starts in the 2024-25 season. First up is the Atlantic Division:

Boston Bruins

*G Jeremy Swayman (one year, $3.475MM cap hit)
*F Trent Frederic (two years, $2.3MM cap hit)
F Morgan Geekie (two years, $2MM cap hit)
D Kevin Shattenkirk (one year, $1.05MM cap hit)
F James van Riemsdyk (one year, $1MM cap hit)
F Milan Lucic (one year, 35+ contract, $1MM cap hit)
F Patrick Brown (two years, $800K cap hit)
*D Ian Mitchell (one year, $775K cap hit)
F Jesper Boqvist (one year, $775K cap hit)

Buffalo Sabres

D Connor Clifton (three years, $3.333MM cap hit)
D Erik Johnson (one year, 35+ contract, $3.25MM cap hit)
F Tyson Jost (one year, $2MM cap hit)

Detroit Red Wings

*F Alex DeBrincat (four years, $7.875MM cap hit)
F J.T. Compher (five years, $5.1MM cap hit)
D Shayne Gostisbehere (one year, $4.125MM cap hit)
D Justin Holl (three years, $3.4MM cap hit)
F Klim Kostin (two years, $2MM cap hit)
F Daniel Sprong (one year, $2MM cap hit)
G James Reimer (one year, 35+ contract, $1.5MM cap hit)
F Christian Fischer (one year, $1.125MM cap hit)
D Gustav Lindström (one year, $950K cap hit)
G Alex Lyon (two years, $900K cap hit)

Florida Panthers

F Evan Rodrigues (four years, $3MM cap hit)
**F Eetu Luostarinen (three years, $3MM cap hit)
D Niko Mikkola (three years, $2.5MM cap hit)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (one year, $2.25MM cap hit)
G Anthony Stolarz (one year, $1.1MM cap hit)
D Mike Reilly (one year, $1MM cap hit)
D Dmitry Kulikov (one year, $1MM cap hit)
F Kevin Stenlund (one year, $1MM cap hit)
*F Grigori Denisenko (two years, $775K cap hit)

Montreal Canadiens

*F Alex Newhook (four years, $2.9MM cap hit)
*F Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (two years, $1.1MM cap hit)

Ottawa Senators

F Vladimir Tarasenko (one year, $5MM cap hit)
G Joonas Korpisalo (five years, $4MM cap hit)
*D Erik Brännström (one year, $2MM cap hit)
D Travis Hamonic (two years, $1.1MM cap hit)
*D Jacob Bernard-Docker (two years, $805K cap hit)
F Zack MacEwen (three years, $775K cap hit)

Tampa Bay Lightning

*F Tanner Jeannot (two years, $2.665MM cap hit)
F Conor Sheary (three years, $2MM cap hit)
F Josh Archibald (two years, $800K cap hit)
F Luke Glendening (two years, $800K cap hit)
G Jonas Johansson (two years, $775K cap hit)
D Calvin de Haan (one year, $775K cap hit)

Toronto Maple Leafs

F Tyler Bertuzzi (one year, $5.5MM cap hit)
D John Klingberg (one year, $4.15MM cap hit)
*G Ilya Samsonov (one year, $3.55MM cap hit)
F Max Domi (one year, $3MM cap hit)
F Ryan Reaves (three years, 35+ contract, $1.35MM cap hit)
G Martin Jones (one year, $875K cap hit)
F Dylan Gambrell (one year, $775K cap hit)

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly

David Krejci Officially Announces Retirement

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Following up on reports from earlier in the month, Boston Bruins center David Krejci officially announced his retirement this morning via a statement issued on the team’s Twitter/X account. With Krejci confirming the news, 2023-24 marks the first time neither Krejci nor Patrice Bergeron will be in the Bruins’ lineup since 2005-06.

He didn’t specifically say he was retiring from hockey in general, just the NHL. It means a return to play in the Czech Extraliga as he did in 2021-22 is still possible but not a given. What’s clear is that as the 37-year-old steps away from the Bruins for a second time, a return is no longer in the cards. He’ll retire with the fourth-most points from the 2004 NHL Draft class after being selected 63rd overall by the Bruins, trailing only Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Blake Wheeler, who were all selected in the top five.

After coming to North America and playing two seasons of junior hockey with the QMJHL’s Gatineau Olympiques post-draft, Krejci got his first taste of NHL action with a six-game stint in 2006-07 after lighting up the AHL for 74 points in 69 games during his first pro season. He made the team out of camp the following season but was demoted back to AHL Providence in early November after recording three assists through his first 12 games. Krejci again dominated in the minors, posting 28 points in his next 25 games, leading to another call-up to the Bruins at the end of December 2007. He never looked back.

While it wasn’t technically his rookie season, as he played 56 games in 2007-08, 2008-09 was Krejci’s first campaign without an AHL assignment. He immediately burst onto the scene along with the rest of the team. At 22 years old, Krejci finished second on the team behind Marc Savard in assists (51) and points (73) while leading the team with a +37 rating, a campaign good enough to place him sixth in Selke Trophy voting. It was a statement season for the Bruins, who posted 116 points en route to their best regular season since the mid-1970s and entered a long, fruitful era of relatively consistent Stanley Cup contention with Krejci and Bergeron locked in down the middle. The breakout lined up with the end of his entry-level contract, and then-GM Peter Chiarelli rewarded him with a three-year, $3.75MM AAV bridge deal (equivalent to a $5.52MM AAV with today’s salary cap).

Krejci never won any individual accolades over the following 13 seasons, but he did become one of the most consistent players in the league. Save for lockouts and injury-shortened campaigns, Krejci produced at a clip of at least 50 points per year over an 82-game season for the remainder of his career. His crowning achievement, however, is undoubtedly his performance in the Bruins’ runs to the 2011 and 2013 Stanley Cup Finals. Winning in 2011, he led the league in playoff scoring with 12 goals and 23 points in 25 games but fell short of winning the Conn Smythe Trophy thanks to goalie Tim Thomas’ heroics (.940 SV%, 1.98 GAA, 4 SO). He followed that up again by leading the league with 17 assists and 26 points in 22 playoff games in 2013, but the Bruins fell short to the Chicago Blackhawks in dramatic fashion in Game 6, conceding two goals in the final 1:16 of the game at home.

After another bridge deal from Chiarelli in 2011 to keep him in Boston through 2014-15, Chiarelli signed Krejci to a contract extension for the third time in 2014. This time, he gave him a six-year, $7.25MM AAV deal that gave the Czech center his biggest payday and kept him from hitting unrestricted free agency the following summer. It was after that deal expired in 2021 that Krejci somewhat unexpectedly took time away from the league, returning home at age 35 on a one-year deal with HC Olomouc and recording 20 goals, 26 assists and 46 points in 51 games. He didn’t achieve his goal of winning a league championship with Olomouc, but he did record 12 points in ten games for Czechia at the World Championship en route to a bronze medal.

He returned to Boston last season on a one-year, bonus-laden deal worth $3MM with a cap hit of just $1MM. In doing so, he spent the final season of his career playing a pivotal role on the best regular-season team in NHL history. Holding down the second-line center spot behind Bergeron as he had for so many years, his line with Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak was key to Boston’s success. They played the most minutes together of any three-man unit for the Bruins (444 minutes, per MoneyPuck), and Krejci notched 16 goals and 40 assists for 56 points in 70 games in his final season wearing a black and gold sweater. Reunited with a pair of Czechs, the Bruins finally gave Krejci the support on the wings he’d deserved – a move that paid off as Pastrnak exploded for his first 60-goal campaign.

Krejci completes his NHL career with 231 goals, 555 assists and 786 points in 1,032 games. He added a career +166 rating, 43 game-winning goals, 53.1% Corsi for at even strength, and averaged 17:50 per game. He sits fifth in Bruins history in games played, trailing only Bergeron, Don Sweeney, Johnny Bucyk, and Ray Bourque. He also ends his career as fifth in assists as a Bruin and ninth in points.

PHR congratulates Krejci on a legendary and successful stint as a core player for an Original Six franchise – something that may very well earn him Hall of Fame consideration in the coming years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jeremy Swayman Hoping To Not Go Through Arbitration Again

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Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman met the media yesterday (video link) to discuss his new one-year, $3.475MM deal that came from an arbitrator.  He indicated that while he’s grateful for having gone through the process, he has no desire to do so in the future.  Swayman is coming off a breakout campaign that saw him post a 2.27 GAA with a .920 SV% and four shutouts in 37 games last season, helping to form the best tandem in the NHL.  It’s quite possible that he could go through this process again, however, as he has two arbitration-eligible seasons remaining; he isn’t able to hit unrestricted free agency until 2026.

Gilles Gilbert Passes Away At 74

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A veteran of fourteen years in the National Hockey League from 1970-1983, goaltender Gilles Gilbert passed away this morning at the age of 74, per Kevin Allen of Detroit Hockey Now. Gilbert is best known for being in net for the Boston Bruins in the 1979 playoffs, where Guy Lafleur of the Montreal Canadiens would score the game-tying goal with less than two minutes left in Game Seven of the semi-finals, turning the tide in favor of the Canadiens.

Gilbert was originally drafted in the third round of the 1969 NHL Amateur Draft by the Minnesota North Stars, at that point making him the 25th overall pick. In four seasons spent with the North Stars, Gilbert would play in a total of 44 games, securing a 16-22-5 record, and carrying a .896 SV% and a 3.40 GAA. In May of 1973, Gilbert was traded to Boston in exchange for forward Fred Stanfield.

His time with the Bruins would undoubtedly be the best stretch of his career, playing 277 games over seven years donning the spoked ’B’. For the first four seasons with Boston, Gilbert, and the team would make the postseason in each season, with Gilbert receiving a majority of the starts in the regular season. In total, Gilbert finished his time with the Bruins with a 155-73-39 record, posting a .890 SV% and a 2.95 GAA. As his time in Boston came to a close, he was traded to a separate Original Six franchise, joining the Detroit Red Wings after a 1980 trade for goalie Rogie Vachon.

No longer benefitting from a strong team in front of him in Detroit, Gilbert’s time with the Red Wings wasn’t nearly as successful. In three seasons to finish his career, Gilbert concluded his career with a 21-48-16 record in 95 games, holding a .858 SV% and a 4.14 GAA. He would retire after the 1983 season with a career record of 192-143-60, and a .883 SV% with a 3.27 GAA. After retiring, Gilbert went back to the province of Quebec, where he would remain for the rest of his days.

All of us at PHR would like to offer our condolences to Gilbert’s family.

David Krejčí To Announce Retirement Soon

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According to Jimmy Murphy of Boston Hockey Now, David Krejčí will announce his retirement from the NHL and hockey in the very near future. Krejčí returned to the Boston Bruins this past season after taking a one-year hiatus to play overseas with Olomouc HC in the Czech League during the 2021-22 season. He had a good year for Boston but did wear down a bit towards the end of the year. In his return, Krejčí had 16 goals and 40 assists in 70 games while centering Boston’s second line.

Murphy mentions in his piece that rumors have been swirling that Krejčí may return to Czechia to play for Olomouc once again, but an NHL source of his has told him that won’t happen. There is, however, an outside chance he could play for the national team, which would leave the door open for Krejčí to dress for Czechia in the 2024 World Championships.

It has been quite a run for the former 2004 second-round pick. Through his NHL career Krejčí has posted 231 goals and 555 assists in 1032 regular season games to go along with a +166 plus-minus rating. He was also a clutch playoff performer with Boston, helping to lead the team to three Stanley Cup finals and one Stanley Cup title in 2011 in which he led the Bruins in scoring with 12 goals and 11 assists in 25 games.

Krejčí’s retirement will bring the Bruins closer to the end of an era as only Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic remain from the squad that won the Stanley Cup 2011. It will also close out the run of one of the best 1-2 center combinations we’ve seen in recent memory. Krejčí and Patrice Bergeron brought something unique to the center position that few other teams had, both men could create offense and play a solid two-way game. Bergeron was one of the best at it, but it always felt like Krejčí’s ability to play on both sides of the puck was overlooked because of who he played behind. Krejčí was a unique talent and will certainly be missed by the Bruins and their fans.

Toronto Maple Leafs Had Interest In Milan Lucic, Radko Gudas

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The Toronto Maple Leafs were active this summer in trying to add some toughness to their roster in the form of enforcers and multi-dimensional players, eventually settling on Max Domi, Ryan Reaves and Tyler Bertuzzi. Those weren’t the only players they contacted of that ilk, however. Both forward Milan Lucic (YouTube link) and defenseman Radko Gudas (link to iSport.cz) revealed in separate interviews that Toronto general manager Brad Treliving had pursued them in unrestricted free agency.

Lucic hadn’t been previously connected to the Leafs throughout this summer’s rumor cycle, but it makes sense they’d have interest given their pursuit and acquisition of Reaves to play a similar role. He told Paul Bissonnette and Ryan Whitney of the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast yesterday, though, that he’d turned down interest from Treliving because of his previous stint with the rival Boston Bruins. The 35-year-old would end up returning to Boston after an eight-year absence, inking a one-year, $1MM contract with the Bruins on July 1.

In terms of offense, Lucic would’ve been a higher-upside (and potentially cheaper) addition to the Leafs’ roster than Reaves. In fact, the only advantage Reaves arguably has between the two players is fighting skill – something the Leafs would end up paying a premium for with a three-year, $4.05MM commitment. Of course, Toronto would end up getting some higher-octane offensive players with the gritty element they were looking for in Bertuzzi and Domi.

Gudas, on the other hand, is pretty much the antithesis of the right-shot defender Toronto did end up signing, John Klingberg. A hulking, physical defensive specialist, Gudas told an outlet in his home country that he’d turned down offers from three teams (Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton) to avoid playing in front of a Canadian media market. While he did sacrifice playing on a competitive team in his twilight years, Gudas did get compensated nicely by the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks with a three-year, $12MM deal carrying trade protection.

The 33-year-old Czech was a large reason why his former team, the Florida Panthers, advanced all the way to the Stanley Cup Final for just the second time in franchise history. He quickly immortalized himself in Leafs lore in the process, going semi-viral for an image that showed him screaming at Toronto goalie Joseph Woll after the Panthers knocked the Leafs out of the playoffs in the Second Round thanks to a Game 5 overtime win.

While Toronto ended up paying slightly more in terms of cap hit for Klingberg ($4.15MM compared to Gudas’ $4MM in Anaheim), they were able to get him at just a one-year commitment, absolving themselves of any long-term consequences should the signing not pan out.

Gudas has topped 100 penalty minutes three times throughout his career and has consistently posted standout advanced defensive metrics over the past number of seasons. He recorded 17 points in 72 games for the Panthers last season while averaging 17:22 of ice time per game.

Examining The Boston Bruins Salary Cap Situation

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Earlier today, an independent arbitrator settled the contract for goaltender Jeremy Swayman and the Boston Bruins, awarding the young goaltender a one-year, $3.475MM contract for the 2023-24 NHL season. Now that Swayman has a contract for next year and much of the heavy lifting of the offseason is already concluded, the Bruins currently find themselves with roughly $429k in cap space to start the season.

Boston has already used one buyout this offseason, buying out the final one-year, $3MM left on the contract of defenseman Mike Reilly’s contract. The team will now have a second buyout window opening in three days, which the team may utilize, but is incredibly unlikely due to the eligible player requirements. The player must have been on the team’s reserve list at last year’s trade deadline, and must also have a cap hit of $4MM or more on their current contract. Of the current roster on the Bruins currently carrying a cap hit of $4MM or more, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle, Pavel Zacha, Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, and Linus Ullmark are the only ones that make the cut.

Given that Boston is unlikely to cut ties with one of the players listed above for absolutely nothing in return, the team might have to look to the trade market to free up more salary. This notion has already been backed up by recent reporting, given that General Manager Cam Neely has already mentioned the team would be looking to bolster their center depth after legendary center Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement and a similar outcome is expected for center David Krejci.

In a creative solution, the Bruins’ best trade partner may be the Calgary Flames, with both Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund available for the right price. After already moving forward Tyler Toffoli this summer, and Lindholm and Backlund unsure about their future in Alberta, the Flames may take a similar approach with those two players as well.

If the Bruins do land an impact center such as Lindholm, they may have to become more amicable about moving out the contract of Coyle or Carlo. It will be difficult, given Coyle’s leadership in the postseason as well as Carlo’s incredible defensive play over the last several years, but it may be the prudent move going forward for this organization.

Similar to last year’s true ’hockey’ trade involving Matthew Tkachuk, a swap of Coyle and Carlo to the Flames for Lindholm and possibly Nikita Zadorov may be the wise decision for both teams. Coyle and Carlo would fill in roster spots for Calgary without totally eliminating their winning potential for next season, as well as give them some contract term to hang on to. For the Bruins, it would likely be a wash, as Lindholm fills a top-six role much better than Coyle, but Zadorov would be a downgrade from the play of Carlo. Given that both Lindholm and Zadorov will be UFA’s at season’s end, and with the expected salary cap increase at the same time, the Bruins will have more financial flexibility to sign these players to extensions as well.

If anything, given the Bruins’ free agent signings this offseason, they should have the defensive depth to absorb the loss of Carlo with both Kevin Shattenkirk and Ian Mitchell joining the roster as well. However, they will need to make an upgrade at the center position before next season starts if they have any hope of competing in the Atlantic Division. The division already holds the defending Eastern Conference Champion Florida Panthers, as well as the extremely talented Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs. A team led by Pastrnak, Marchand, and McAvoy should never be counted out of contention, but the growing sense is that Boston will need to make a move to cut salary, as well as find a center in hopes of replacing the production vacated by Bergeron and Krejci.

Jeremy Swayman Contract Settled Via Arbitration

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Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman has been awarded a $3.475MM one-year contract in arbitration, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

This news comes just a few hours after the team reached an agreement on a two-year contract with their other pending RFA, Trent Frederic. They now have cost certainty on their roster for next season, although CapFriendly projects them to have just over $3.1MM in cap space before this award is factored in, meaning they stand just over $600k above the $83.5MM salary cap with a full roster.

In our more detailed breakdown of Swayman’s arbitration case, we projected an award between $3.55MM and $3.75MM. This award comes in just below that projection, although it is ever so slightly above the mid-point between the two parties’ filings. Swayman had filed for a $4.8MM AAV while the Bruins filed for $2MM, making the mid-point $3.4MM.

Swayman gets a little bit more than that, and although that’s far from the $4.8MM he filed for it still represents a significant pay raise from the $925k against the cap he cost in 2022-23.

He fully earned that hefty pay raise with his play last season, as well. In his age-24 season, Swayman played in 37 games and went 24-6-4 with a .920 save percentage and 2.27 goals-against-average.

While those numbers were undoubtedly aided by the Bruins’ historic regular season dominance and their exceptional group of defensemen, Swayman’s 2021-22 (.914 save percentage in 41 games) and 2020-21 (.945 save percentage in 10 games) beef up his resume.

Swayman was also an accomplished starter in his college days at the University of Maine, and looking at his performance at every level of hockey it’s hard to argue he’s not worth the $3.475MM he’s been awarded today. Where this leaves Boston, though, is in a curious spot.

Although some might assume that the Bruins would be interested in trading Swayman since they already have Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark entrenched as a starter, that’s highly unlikely to happen. As The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa noted in his recent mailbag, the Bruins believe an Ullmark-Swayman tandem “will be their position of strength for 2023-24” and help them return to the playoffs despite losing some high-end talent in Patrice Bergeron, Dmitry Orlov, and Tyler Bertuzzi. (subscription link)

Although Brandon Bussi is waiting in the wings playing for the AHL’s Providence Bruins and could be ready to handle backup duty, Ullmark does have a history of injuries earlier in his career and the safety Swayman provides to the Bruins’ goaltending depth is legitimately valuable.

That being said, one has to believe that Swayman will eventually want to be a true number-one goalie, as his talent certainly merits receiving that chance. Whether that chance will come in Boston remains to be seen.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Boston Bruins, Trent Frederic Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement

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11:00 AM: The Bruins have now officially announced the agreement, confirming the terms that were first reported by Friedman.

9:00 AM: The Boston Bruins have reached an agreement on a new contract with RFA forward Trent Frederic before today’s scheduled arbitration hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Bruins have agreed with Frederic on a two-year, $2.3MM AAV contract extension. According to Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland, the deal has a $250k signing bonus in its first year.

The contract comes closer to Frederic’s desired AAV (he had filed for a one-year, $2.9MM deal) at the cost of an extra year of term, something the Bruins filed for albeit at a $1.4MM AAV.

In our more detailed breakdown of Frederic’s arbitration case, we projected “Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM,” which is exactly where this settlement came in.

At a $150k higher rate than the midpoint of the two parties’ filings, the Bruins have rewarded their second 2016 first-round pick for his breakout 2022-23 campaign. Frederic flew past his career highs to register 17 goals and 31 points in 79 games last season even while averaging just under 12 minutes of ice time per night.

As mentioned in our breakdown, Frederic’s possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t likely to be that of a one-year wonder, although one does wonder how he’d hold up if exposed to a more demanding role requiring him to handle more substantial minutes.

Frederic doesn’t boast a ton of offensive skill but as a six-foot-three, 214-pound forward with the versatility to play center or along the wing Frederic is the sort of forward who plays with an edge and provides enough scoring touch to be coveted by many clubs. This settlement marches Frederic to the unrestricted free agent market in two year’s time, and if he can seize the significant opportunity in front of him he could be lined up for a major payday at that point.

With Boston’s top two centers from last season in Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out the door, Frederic could potentially get the opportunity to play center for one of Boston’s scoring lines, potentially slotting next to a star such as David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand. Although players such as Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are undoubtedly going to be first in line for those opportunities, Frederic could get his chance, which would be a potentially career-defining opportunity.

This two-year contract provides Frederic with a significant opportunity, but also heightened expectations. Now paid more than double the $1.05MM cap hit he played last season on, Frederic can no longer be the physical fourth-line presence he was earlier in his career. He’ll need to be more, and if he can do so he could stand to make quite a bit of money in two year’s time thanks to this new contract.

As for where this leaves the Bruins, they now have just over $3.1MM in cap space left over, and still await an arbitration award in netminder Jeremy Swayman’s case. Swayman had his arbitration hearing on July 30th and therefore should have his award come in today, meaning the Bruins are close to reaching cost certainty for the team’s expected 2023-24 roster.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. 

Arbitration Breakdown: Trent Frederic

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We’re entering the final few days of the salary arbitration calendar, meaning most of the remaining notable restricted free agents will have contracts in place for next season by the end of next week. There are a number of notable cases that remain unsettled, including a pair of high-end young goalies in the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and the Minnesota Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Swayman’s hearing is today, meaning we’ll learn his contractual fate for next season on Tuesday. However, there’s a teammate of Swayman’s and an important depth piece for the Bruins facing an arbitration hearing of his own – forward Trent Frederic, who now has just 48 hours remaining until his arbitration hearing on Tuesday.

Filings

Team: two years, $1.4MM AAV
Player: one year, $2.9MM AAV
Midpoint: $2.15MM AAV

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

2022-23 was a breakout year for Frederic, recording career highs in offensive categories across the board. While he may not be a long-term top-flight center solution as the Bruins envisioned when they selected him 29th overall in 2016, the 25-year-old has grown into an extremely effective bottom-six power forward. His scoring skyrocketed this season despite not seeing a major increase in ice time, and he didn’t sacrifice the solid defensive play he’d shown in his two prior full NHL seasons. His 17 goals were sixth on the powerhouse Bruins last year despite playing under 12 minutes per game.

If advanced analytics hold any bearing in arbitration hearings, Frederic’s side should use them to their advantage. Many of his possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t a fluke, as his ability to drive play has steadily grown during his time in the NHL. However, it is fair to wonder if an increase in ice time (and, therefore, tougher matchups) may diminish his effectiveness slightly. It’s an important factor to take into consideration, as Frederic is expected to play a bigger role on the Bruins next season with wing depth like Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi no longer on the team.

His NHL career doesn’t carry a terribly long track record, though, something that may give the arbitrator some pause. Frederic hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark in his career, and he only transformed into an everyday NHLer this season, oftentimes being healthy scratched at points throughout the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns.

2022-23 Stats: 79 GP, 17-14-31, +28 rating, 57 PIMs, 120 shots, 11:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 198 GP, 29-25-54, +25 rating, 194 PIMs, 284 shots, 11:27 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Frederic’s negotiation. 

Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks) – Kurashev is a few years younger than Frederic but has a similar amount of NHL experience. Like Frederic, he also posted career-highs in offensive categories last season but had less production and infinitely worse defensive results. However, Kurashev was relied upon to play heavy minutes (more than 17 minutes per game) for a lottery Blackhawks team – likely more responsibility than he was fit to handle. An arbitrator awarded Kurashev a $2.25MM AAV last week, coming in above the midpoint of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings. Given Frederic’s better scoring and two-way play but extremely sheltered minutes, this could fall close to the arbitrator’s final decision here.

Warren Foegele (Hurricanes) – This comparison may be a bit dated (Foegele had his arbitration award in November 2020), but played a much more similar role on the Hurricanes to Frederic’s on the Bruins than in the Kurashev comparison outlined above. After a season in which Foegele registered similar offensive production to Frederic (30 points in 68 games), an arbitrator awarded him a $2.15MM deal for the 2020-21 campaign. It presents a solid argument for the arbitrator to rule right down the middle of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings.

Artturi Lehkonen (Canadiens) – Lehkonen had filed for arbitration with the Canadiens in the summer of 2021, but the two sides came to a pre-hearing agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.3MM. Lehkonen was the same age as Frederic at the time of signing and produced similarly strong two-way results, although Lekhonen had significantly more NHL experience at the time of signing, with 338 games under his belt. However, he was coming off a down season – just seven goals and 13 points in 47 games, hurting his stock.

Projection

No matter what, it does seem Frederic will be signing a two-year contract unless the arbitrator awards significantly in his favor. As Frederic was the party that filed for arbitration, Boston is free to choose between a one-year or two-year pact based on the AAV awarded by the arbitrator. The contract would walk Frederic directly to unrestricted free agency, but it’s something Boston is evidently comfortable with based on their filing.

The comparisons outlined place Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM. It seems unlikely the arbitrator would go any higher than $2.5MM on an award, though, especially considering his limited ice time and consistent fourth-line role. Regardless, it’s likely he’ll more than double his $1.05MM salary from the last two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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