Examining The Buffalo Sabres’ Financial Future
When Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams signed center Tage Thompson to an admittedly massive seven-year contract extension earlier this week, it raised some eyebrows considering the lack of consistency from Thompson in his career. Speaking after the fact a few days ago, Adams told The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski that “we’re also being strategic a little bit, to be honest, about the timeline knowing that there’s other guys potentially next summer where we’re going to be in this situation. We want to make sure we’re being strategic on when and how we put these deals together.”
So, given that Adams is envisioning more breakout campaigns from his young stars in 2022-23, how does the Sabres’ financial picture line up with their rise out of their years-long rebuild and the expected salary cap increases?
There are two players next summer who, depending on their campaigns, could demand significant pay raises over their sub-$1MM deals. Both Dylan Cozens and Rasmus Asplund are restricted free agents in 2023, although Cozens does not have arbitration rights.
Cozens is projected to slot right behind Thompson on the team’s depth chart, battling with Casey Mittelstadt for a spot centering their second line. If he wins that battle and sees increased playing time, Cozens’ offensive production is bound to take a step forward from his 38 points last season.
In any event, Cozens’ ceiling likely isn’t the 35+ goal season Thompson is coming off of, either. His development has been more linear, something that tracks well for the Sabres, at least in terms of certainty in contract negotiations. The team still currently has nearly $40MM in cap space to play with next offseason with the projected salary cap increase to $83.5MM, so any major contract the Sabres hand out now really doesn’t force their hand in the slightest.
It’s later on when things would get tricky, when the team is contending and their breakout stars want to capitalize on what should be a rapidly increasing salary cap at that point. From that point of view, betting on their players is a smart move from Adams at the moment. With the team still so far away from the salary cap, it can’t hurt to take a risk on what could be a team-friendly deal in five seasons. Even if the players don’t quite pan out as projected, those are deals that won’t be taking up nearly as much of their salary cap as they are now when they do become an issue.
Though Adams should be careful not to play with too much fire. Recent reports suggest that the first large salary cap jump could come in the 2024 offseason instead of 2025. That would be a boon to the Sabres, who have four major expiring contracts that offseason: Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin, and Owen Power. If everything goes as expected in terms of their development, that could very well be upwards of $30MM handed out just between those four players. If the Sabres put themselves in a position to give those contracts and still have some breathing room, they could finally construct a roster with the required depth to remain at the top of the Eastern Conference.
Latest On Zach Aston-Reese, Evan Rodrigues
The calendar has now turned to September, only turning up the heat on both free agents looking for contracts and teams looking to fill roster holes ahead of training camp. A marginal salary cap increase over the past few seasons has made late-offseason moves tougher to make work, though, and it’s becoming more and more common to see situations get resolved at the last minute due to a lack of other options.
Two players who could be in that boat are a pair of former Pittsburgh Penguins forwards Zach Aston-Reese and Evan Rodrigues. Pittsburgh Hockey Now’s Dan Kingerski reported today that sources tell him both Aston-Reese and Rodrigues have interest and multiple offers from NHL teams but are “holding out for better situations.” Kingerski named both the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks specifically as teams that have kicked tires on Rodrigues, which had been previously reported. He noted that Aston-Reese had interest from two or three NHL teams, but that the bottom-six utility player is looking for more offensive opportunities on his next team.
Kingerski also mentioned to a lesser degree, that veteran center Brian Boyle has an interest in returning to Pittsburgh, although there isn’t much space for him on the organizational depth chart.
Whichever team does sign Aston-Reese will be getting one of the most valuable bottom-six threats (if not the most valuable) still on the market. His career-high of 17 points may not jump off the page, but he’s made a name for himself as one of the top defensive players, at least analytically speaking, in recent years. The 28-year-old product of Staten Island was dealt to the Anaheim Ducks at this year’s trade deadline in the Rickard Rakell trade and had four points in 17 games during his brief stint as a Duck.
An obvious fit for Aston-Reese would be the Winnipeg Jets, who still have some cap space to burn after signing Sam Gagner earlier this week. The Jets have some weak bottom-six depth that would allow Aston-Reese to see some more offensive looks, and his services could help solidify a historically defensively inept team.
Anaheim Ducks Acquire Dmitry Kulikov
According to an NHL.com report, the Minnesota Wild dealt defenseman Dmitry Kulikov to the Anaheim Ducks today in exchange for future considerations.
Kulikov, a veteran of 13 NHL seasons and 805 NHL games, brings some much-needed veteran stability to the Anaheim defense corps. In 2021-22, Kulikov had his best season in quite some time, notching more than 20 points for the first time in 10 years and also staying healthy, playing in 80 games. Injuries have been a consistent issue for Kulikov throughout his time in the league.
Averaging 18:12 per game, Kulikov played a bottom-pair but still an important role for the Wild last season. Along with his health, he’s maintained his calling card as a quality defensive defenseman. With the Ducks having some serious question marks at left defense behind Cam Fowler, Kulikov immediately helps fortify a growing team and could provide a solid defensive partner for Jamie Drysdale.
It’s a good trade for the Wild, too, even though they’re losing him for nothing. Minnesota may have managed the salary cap better than most expected considering the massive Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyout cap hits they face, but they still had a logjam on the blueline with multiple prospects getting closer to NHL readiness. With Calen Addison poised to make the jump to the NHL full-time next season, the Wild simply had one too many NHL defensemen. Considering Alex Goligoski just received an extension and Jonathon Merrill won’t be ready to start the season, Kulikov was the logical trade choice.
Buffalo Sabres Sign Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
The Buffalo Sabres have signed goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to a two-year deal with a cap hit of $837,500, the team announced via Twitter on Wednesday. The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski reports that the second year of the deal is one-way, when Luukkonen also becomes eligible for waivers.
Luukkonen split the 2021-22 season between the Sabres and their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans, coming up to Buffalo when injuries decimated their goaltending depth this season. Luukkonen battled through some injuries himself, something that’s unfortunately becoming a common theme, but still managed to get into 35 games for Rochester last season. There, he compiled a 15-14-8 record, .900 save percentage, and one shutout.
Those numbers don’t seem that impressive — and they aren’t — but he did have a much better NHL showing, albeit in a brief amount of appearances. Luukkonen actually had a .917 save percentage mark in nine NHL games, recording his second and third career NHL wins in the process.
After the Sabres retained both Craig Anderson and Malcolm Subban while also signing free agent Eric Comrie, Luukkonen is destined for another year in Rochester in 2022-23. It’s not the worst place for him, though, as he needs to show more consistency and solid improvement in the AHL before he’s ready to get a real full-time look in the NHL. With this likely being the last season of Anderson’s NHL career, Luukkonen could very well be ready for that full-time NHL job in 2023-24 during the second season of this new contract.
Buffalo Sabres Extend Tage Thompson
The Buffalo Sabres have signed forward Tage Thompson to a seven-year, $50MM extension beginning in the 2023-24 season. The contract has a cap hit of $7.143MM and runs through 2030-2031.
General manager Kevyn Adams spoke on the deal:
Tage Thompson embodies the pride we expect from every player who wears the Buffalo Sabres sweater. His success last season is a testament to his unrelenting dedication to his craft and commitment to bettering the team both on and off the ice, which we believe will help us reach even greater heights moving forward. We are thrilled to extend Tage, keeping him and his family in Buffalo for many years to come.
Thompson, who will turn 25 in October, exploded for a breakout campaign in 2021-22. Playing in 78 games, Thompson shattered his previous single-digit career-highs in goals and assists, tallying 38 goals and 30 assists for 68 points. Widely credited due to the coaching of Don Granato and moving Thompson to center, he flourished in what was a promising year for him and the team overall.
He’ll need to keep up that pace now, though. More than $7MM per season is a massive commitment for one season of more than 15 points, but it could end up being a bargain just the same if he improves on those numbers. Any opinion of the deal will solely rely on one’s opinion of Thompson’s ceiling and how much development one thinks he has left.
In any event, Thompson is the team’s number one center for the long haul now. He heads up a deep group of young centers that includes Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs, Casey Mittelstadt, and Matthew Savoie, who all have the potential to be long-term, high-end top-nine fixtures for Buffalo.
It also gives the Sabres a degree of financial certainty that they’ve lacked in recent years. Forced to take on contracts purely to get to the salary cap’s spending floor, deals like Thompson’s given to young players instead of bloated free agent deals are a smarter way of managing money as Buffalo exits their rebuild.
Thompson will be 33 when the deal expires, meaning this will take Thompson all the way through his prime, in all likelihood.
ESPN’s Kevin Weekes was first to report Thompson and the Sabres were close on an extension.
Brandon Davidson Signs In KHL
After seven NHL seasons and 180 games played, defenseman Brandon Davidson has signed a two-year contract with Kunlun Red Star in the KHL, per the league.
The writing was on the wall for Davidson who, at age 31, spent the entirety of the 2021-22 season in the AHL for the first time since 2013-14. A member of the Buffalo Sabres organization for the past two seasons, Davidson was an alternate captain for the AHL’s Rochester Americans last year and had six points in 23 games. Davidson last played in the NHL on March 16, 2021, in a game against the New Jersey Devils.
A 2010 sixth-round pick of the Edmonton Oilers, Davidson had made a home for himself in the mid-2010s as a stable seventh defenseman for the Oilers, Montreal Canadiens, and New York Islanders. He remained entirely in the NHL from 2015-16 until the 2018-19 season, where he was sent to the AHL’s Rockford IceHogs for a brief stint as a member of the Chicago Blackhawks organization. He’s yet to play a full NHL season since.
Davidson is still decent minor-league depth and could very well get two-way offers or AHL deals when his KHL contract expires in 2024.
Minnesota Wild Sign Sam Steel
The Minnesota Wild have signed center Sam Steel to a one-year, $825,000 contract, according to a team release. Steel became an unrestricted free agent after the Anaheim Ducks chose not to issue him a qualifying offer earlier this summer.
The 2021-22 campaign wasn’t too kind to Steel. He did finish with a respectable six goals and 14 assists for 20 points in 68 games, but he’s yet to develop into anything more than a run-of-the-mill bottom-six forward. With his ice time taking a hit, too, dropping to 12:19 per game in 2021-22 from 14:32 per game in 2020-21, Steel’s clout within the Ducks organization was dropping fast.
Steel’s game has been serviceable defensively throughout his four-season NHL career, but he’s yet to make the impact offensively he was expected to after going 30th overall in the 2016 NHL Draft. He’s scored exactly six goals in every NHL campaign and has never eclipsed more than 22 points in a season.
He’ll be 25 by the time next season ends, and the clock on his development is beginning to run out, but that doesn’t absolve him of being valuable to the Wild organization. The team needed another NHL forward in the lineup, plain and simple. While he may not have a breakout year in Minnesota, he’s still a very good insurance option to let players like Connor Dewar and Brandon Duhaime play more limited roles suited to their skill set. Steel could easily fit in on the team’s secondary scoring line alongside Frederick Gaudreau and Matthew Boldy, too, which could help spur some increased offense for him.
Pittsburgh Penguins Extend Mike Sullivan
Mike Sullivan is locked in long-term as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Today, the team announced a three-year extension for the esteemed coach, beginning after the 2023-24 season and lasting through 2026-27.
Sullivan gave a statement today on his extension:
My family and I are excited to continue the journey in Pittsburgh. Words can’t express the respect and gratitude I have for what we have accomplished during my tenure with the Penguins. It is a testament to the character of the people and players in this organization, and the standard of excellence that we have established collectively. I’m grateful to Fenway Sports Group and the Penguins management group for their trust and confidence in me.
Sullivan is quickly transforming into one of the most important figures in Penguins’ history. His tenure as head coach has been nothing short of elite from a management perspective, guiding the team to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2016 and 2017 while also consistently keeping a standard of excellence throughout regular season play. The significance and amount of injuries that the Penguins have faced, especially in recent years, have been overcome largely in part due to Sullivan’s coaching.
In 507 games behind the Penguins bench, Sullivan has a record of 297-156-54 or a points percentage of .639%. He has a playoff record of 44-38.
If he remains Pittsburgh’s coach for the duration of his new extension, it’ll be at least a 12-year tenure for Sullivan as the team’s head coach. With seven seasons under his belt already, he’s been the longest continuously-serving coach in Penguins history, and he’s tied with Eddie Johnston for total seasons served behind the bench as head coach for the organization.
In the coming years, Sullivan could be given the tall task of leading the Penguins out of the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin era. Both of their contracts expire prior to 2027, and while they surely may re-sign, it’s unlikely that they’ll be at the same dominant level of play. Without a slam-dunk prospect in the system to solidify the future, the team will rely heavily on Sullivan’s coaching performance to keep them competitive.
But that’s all Sullivan’s done so far in Pittsburgh — keeping them competitive. The team has the longest active playoff streak in the NHL, dating back to 2007, and it was one he singlehandedly saved in 2016 after taking over for Mike Johnston midseason after just a 15-10-3 start. Going 33-16-5 the rest of the way, Sullivan and the Penguins won the Stanley Cup in the first two seasons he served behind the bench, and while their playoff success has been limited since that point, Sullivan’s managed to keep the ship turned in the right direction.
Keltie Jeri-Leon Signs PTO With Boston Bruins
Per CapFriendly, forward Keltie Jeri-Leon has signed a professional tryout contract with the Boston Bruins.
In 2021-22, the 22-year-old forward played his first professional season, notching 19 goals and 35 points in 57 games with the ECHL’s Maine Mariners, Boston’s ECHL affiliate. He also appeared in two games on loan to AHL Providence, scoring his first AHL goal in the process.
The undrafted forward has little to no NHL upside, but a strong rookie ECHL season could parlay into a more significant AHL role next year. Unsigned for 2022-23, Jeri-Leon has an opportunity to receive an AHL contract from Providence and continue his development within the Bruins organization.
The product of Kelowna, BC spent five seasons in the WHL with four different teams before turning pro, last serving as an alternate captain for the Seattle Thunderbirds in 2020-21.
Columbus Blue Jackets Sign Liam Hawel To PTO
The Columbus Blue Jackets have signed center Liam Hawel to a professional tryout contract, per CapFriendly.
23 years old now, Hawel was originally a fourth-round pick of the Dallas Stars in 2017. After not receiving an entry-level deal from Dallas, Hawel signed an AHL contract with the Montreal Canadiens for 2020-21 after wrapping up his junior career with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers.
The COVID-related chaos of the 2020-21 campaign limited Hawel to just seven games in AHL Laval, though, where he tallied just two assists in seven games. Hawel then took the extremely rare step of going to university after starting his professional career, tallying 37 points in 24 games last season for St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia.
Not signed to any sort of contract for 2022-23, Hawel needs a strong training camp performance just to earn an AHL contract in Cleveland. He could earn an NHL contract too if he really impresses, especially given the organization’s weak minor-league depth at forward, at least in terms of those signed to NHL deals.