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Maple Leafs Notes: Assistant Coach, Schenn, O’Reilly

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are reportedly mulling over several assistant coaches as they look to fill out their coaching staff. While head coach Sheldon Keefe’s future is still up in the air it does appear that he will return for this season. One coach that isn’t returning is assistant coach Spencer Carbery who already accepted the head coaching job with the Washington Capitals. Now Brad Treliving and company are tasked with filling that hole in their staff. Jeff Marek speculated today on the 32 Thoughts Podcast that he’s heard Toronto have shown interest in Mitch Love, Karl Taylor, and Todd Nelson.

Love is likely the biggest name of the three as he is the head coach of the Calgary Wranglers and has had that team play like a well-oiled machine the past two seasons posting a record of 96-33-8-3. The Wranglers are the AHL affiliate to the Calgary Flames which will lead to speculation about a connection with Treliving who of course came over from Calgary just a few weeks ago.

Taylor is the current head coach of the Nashville Predators AHL affiliate in Milwaukee and has been there for five seasons posting a record of 157-90-29-11. He’s struggled to get the Admirals over the hump as they have advanced to the second round just one in his five-year run with the club. Taylor has also coached in the WHL, ECHL and AHL during his 16-year coaching career.

Nelson is the most experienced of the three names that Marek mentioned as he has been coaching for over 20 years in the UHL, AHL and NHL. He was an assistant coach for four years in Dallas before taking over the Hershey Bears this season. Nelson has the club one win away from the AHL Calder Trophy and may have a lot of NHL opportunities thrown his way this summer.

In other evening notes:

  • Elliotte Friedman spoke today on CHEK TV’s Donnie and Dhali show saying that he doesn’t believe the Toronto Maple Leafs and Luke Schenn are very close on a contract extension for the pending unrestricted free agent. Friedman went on to state that the Maple Leafs would love to have the 33-year-old back but are looking at a salary around league minimum while Schenn is looking to cash in on his best offensive season in over a decade after he tied a career high by putting up 22 points in 70 games. Schenn has been playing under six figure deals for the past five seasons and might be looking at his last chance to get a contract with an annual value above $1MM per season.
  • TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button said today on That’s Hockey that he believes Toronto Maple Leafs unrestricted free agent center Ryan O’Reilly should be able to fetch a three-year contract. O’Reilly can no longer drive his own line but is still a solid two-way option for a team looking for help in the middle. O’Reilly dealt with injuries this past season but still put up 16 goals and 14 assists in 53 games. Button’s three-year projection matches Daily Faceoffs contract projection from last month when Frank Seravalli projected a three-year contract for O’Reilly at a cap hit of $5.5MM. If that is the number, it would likely price O’Reilly out of Toronto given that the cap constraints and needs that Toronto will have this summer.

Goalie Notes: Andersen/Raanta, Jarry, Korpisalo

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The Carolina Hurricanes will have a big decision to make this offseason when it comes to their crease. It seemed like a forgone conclusion that one of Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta would be allowed to walk in free agency as the Hurricanes already have netminder Pyotr Kochetkov locked up for a very reasonable $2MM per season. But according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic the Hurricanes appear to be in negotiations with both Andersen and Raanta. While it seems unusual for a team that normally has an internal budget to stash a $2MM player in the minors, Kochetkov is still waiver exempt for one more season meaning Carolina could roll back the trio for one more year. That might be the prudent thing to do given that the club needed all three goalies this past year to navigate the various injuries that they dealt with throughout the campaign. Andersen was just okay in the regular season but was terrific in the playoffs, while Raanta had a good regular season but had his fair share of struggles in the postseason.

In other goalie notes:

  • LeBrun writes that Pittsburgh Penguins new boss Kyle Dubas has yet to approach the Tristan Jarry situation in any meaningful way and that things still appear to be status quo. Dubas has historically been reluctant to commit major dollars or term to goaltenders and given the injury history and inconsistency in Jarry’s game, it seems unlikely he would commit either to the 28-year-old. Jarry is likely looking for a long-term deal and a return to Pittsburgh seems unlikely unless the bottom falls out of the market, and he decides Pittsburgh is a good soft landing for him. Jarry went 24-13-7 this past season as he and the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time in 16 seasons. The Surrey, British Columbia native posted a .909 save percentage for the second time in the past three seasons and has yet to demonstrate that he can win in the playoffs.
  • LeBrun writes that netminder Joonas Korpisalo and the Los Angeles Kings have had some initial conversations on a contract extension but given how close the Kings are to the cap they may have a tough time fitting in a big cap number on a goaltender. It appears Joonas Korpisalo will hit the open market and he could be an intriguing name for teams looking to make a move in the crease. While he was terrific this past season, Korpisalo has posted a goals saved above expected number higher than -7 every season from 2017-18 through 2021-22 and a save percentage above .915 just once. Given his track record he may be best suited in a 1A/1B tandem situation similar to the Carolina Hurricanes structure with Andersen and Raanta.

Afternoon Notes: Hellebuyck, Bear, Thompson

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Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic wrote today that Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck is looking for a contract with an average annual value around $9.5MM. LeBrun says that teams looking to trade for the 30-year-old are aware of what Hellebuyck’s camp are seeking in contract negotiations. If Hellebuyck were to get that salary it would put him in the same pay bracket as Tampa Bay Lighting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Hellebuyck was the 2020 Vezina award winner for top goaltender and has a long track record of putting up elite numbers. However, he has had a handful of poor seasons and with teams having just seen the Vegas Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup with Adin Hill between the pipes, there might be a hesitancy to pay a premium in a trade and an expensive cap hit for a goalie who is on the wrong side of 30. You can’t fault Hellebuyck for asking for the moon as he is nominated once again for the Vezina award after a terrific season in Winnipeg posting a 37-25-2 record with a .920 save percentage and a 2.49 goals against average.

In other afternoon notes:

  • Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV tweeted today that it appears the Vancouver Canucks have had discussions with defenseman Ethan Bear’s representatives about several contract possibilities. The tweet comes on the heels of a conversation with Bear’s agent Jason Davidson who said that they’ve discussed several options, but a one-year deal may be the way to go for the 25-year-old. It’s an interesting idea from Bear’s camp given that the defender is out until December after undergoing shoulder surgery this week. Bear is a year away from unrestricted free agency and the allure of picking his long term destination may be worth the roll of the dice.
  • Ben Gotz of the Las Vegas Review-Journal tweeted today that Bruce Cassidy told reporters that goaltender Logan Thompson is skating and should be 100% by training camp. Thompson started the year as Vegas’ number one goaltender but suffered a lower body injury in February and did not play again. When healthy the 26-year-old posted good numbers going 21-13-3 with a .915 save percentage and 2.65 goals against average. If Thompson is ready to go it could give Vegas leverage in their contract negotiations with pending free agent netminder Adin Hill. Thompson would be a solid fallback option should Hill elect to test the market and move on.

Free Agent Focus: Vegas Golden Knights

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Golden Knights. 

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Nolan Patrick – Patrick missed the entire 2022-23 season as the former second overall pick has dealt with multiple injuries during his short career that date all the back to his junior hockey days. It was the second full season Patrick has missed as he also missed the 2019-20 season with a migraine disorder.

Patrick came over to Vegas from the Nashville Predators in a trade for Cody Glass back in July 2021 and has played just 25 games for them putting up two goals and five assists. It seems likely that Patrick will be non-tendered by the Golden Knights making him an unrestricted free agent. Should this happen it’s hard to predict what would be the next step for the 24-year-old Winnipeg native.

When healthy, Patrick was a very productive third line center who could play with some edge. But given the litany of health issues he has dealt with the past few seasons it could be possible that he elects to retire or to try and continue his career outside of the NHL. If he chooses to hang up his skates it would be a sad ending for a player who showed a lot of promise as a 19 and 20-year-old with the Philadelphia Flyers.

F Brett Howden – Howden’s regular season was a disappointment as he produced just six goals and seven assists in 54 games and spent most of the time buried in his own end. He was fortunate that during his time on the ice his goaltenders bailed he and his linemates out with an on-ice save percentage of 93.3%. His playoff performance however was a completely different story. Howden found his offensive game and was able to almost replicate his regular season numbers as he had five goals and five assists in 22 playoff games.

At this point in his career, it is hard to pin down what Howden is. His season was the tale of two different performances and its almost a microcosm of the 25-year-old’s career thus far. He’s shown glimpses of being an effective fourth line center, but he has also had stretches where he doesn’t look like he belongs in the league. Vegas will have a tough decision on their hands with Howden and may elect to bring him back short term once again. Last summer Howden signed a one-year deal for $1.5MM and I would expect something in the same ballpark again this summer.

Other RFAs: D Connor Corcoran, F Pavel Dorofeyev, F Maxim Marushev, D Brayden Pachal, G Jiri Patera

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Adin Hill – Hill had a wild journey to becoming the starting netminder for a Stanley Cup champion. He became an afterthought in San Jose last season and was dealt in August 2022 for a fourth-round pick in 2024. He then found himself caught up in a numbers game and was stuck behind Logan Thompson and eventually Laurent Brossoit. Hill went two full months without playing until he was called upon in the second round. He came in cold to help the Golden Knights dispatch of the Edmonton Oilers and from there it became his crease. Hill went on to post an 11-4 record in the playoffs with a .932 save percentage and a 2.17 goals-against average.

His playoff numbers this year were dominant, however throughout Hill’s career he has struggled to find consistency. Coming into this year Hill had posted several seasons of average or below average production. If you take a deeper dive into Hill’s numbers and look at his goals saved above expected, he has posted a -7 since 2017-18. While the number is one of many that can be used to demonstrate value, it does show that Hill has been slightly below average for most of his career.

This will make for a very interesting negotiation. Hill will be looking to cash in on his run with a long-term big money deal. It’s unclear what Vegas will be looking to do; they have several other netminders in their system and do have to consider signing some other pieces. They may elect to go short term with Hill to see if he is in fact their goaltender of the future. I would expect Hill to be looking for a salary in the range for $4MM-$5MM annually on his next contract.

F Ivan Barbashev – Barbashev is now a two-time Stanley Cup champion having won his first title back in 2019 with the St. Louis Blues. Barbashev was a big part of this year’s title with Vegas as he put up seven goals and 11 assists in 22 playoff games after posting 16 goals and 29 assists in 82 regular season games. Although his regular season numbers represented a drop from his 60 points last season with the Blues, the 27-year-old was able to find another gear when the games mattered the most. Barbashev has improved in every season since entering the NHL as he started his career slow and looked like he might never find his offensive touch.

While he was a big part of Vegas’ most effective line in the playoffs, it does look like Barbashev may be squeezed out by cap constraints. With a weak free agent market and multiple teams interested in his services, Barbashev is very likely to test the free agency waters and maximize his income. He made $2.25MM last season and should be able to double his salary on a long-term deal. There was a lot of interest in his services when St. Louis was dangling him at the trade deadline and with another Stanley Cup on his resume that interest has only grown.

G Laurent Brossoit – Brossoit was terrific in the regular season for Vegas but couldn’t keep himself in the net in the playoffs as he fell apart during the second round series against the Edmonton Oilers. Brossoit posted a 7-0-3 record in the regular season with a 2.17 goals against average and a .927 save percentage. While those numbers are terrific, he was only able to dress in 11 regular season games. In the playoffs his play was far less impressive as he went 5-2 with a 3.18 goals against average and a .894 save percentage.

Brossoit is coming off a two-year deal that paid him $2.325MM in each of the last two years and figures to get something similar in free agency. Pittsburgh Penguins backup Casey DeSmith received a two-year contract for $1.8MM per last offseason and Brossoit should be able to top that given that he is a more capable backup and someone who can operate as a 1B option in a pinch.

Other UFAs:  F Teddy Blueger, F Phil Kessel, F Spencer Foo,

Projected Cap Space

Just days after winning the Stanley Cup the Vegas Golden Knights management will have a quick turnaround to try and prepare for what should be a busy offseason. The Golden Knights are currently just $3.5MM under the salary cap for next season with some key pieces left to sign from their cup winning group. The good news for Vegas is that they have 21 players already signed for next season including many of the key pieces that brought them a title this season.

The situation for the Golden Knights is not unlike the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins who were able to capture the 2016 Stanley Cup and bring almost their entire group back for a sequel in 2017. Vegas could be in position to do the same.

The biggest hurdle that Vegas will face is in the crease. After missing the entire season with an injury Robin Lehner is not guaranteed to return. He has been rehabbing but will all the injuries and off ice issues he has had to endure Vegas may buyout the veteran if he isn’t a candidate to stay on LTIR. Lehner has two more seasons left on his contract at a cap hit of $5MM, which could be a comparable to what netminder Adin Hill would fetch on the open market as an unrestricted free agent.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks Buy Out Oliver Ekman-Larsson

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The Vancouver Canucks have made the first buyout of the summer, announcing that they have bought out defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson had four years left on an eight-year $66MM contract he signed with the Arizona Coyotes in July of 2018, but with the buyout it will allow the 31-year-old to become an unrestricted free agent where he will be free to start fresh with any team he chooses. Ekman-Larsson posted two goals and 20 assists this past season in 54 games with the Canucks while averaging 20 minutes of ice time a night.

Vancouver will free up some desperately needed cap space as they head into a summer where they will be trying to sign star forward Elias Pettersson to a long-term contract extension. The Canucks will save $7.1MM in cap space this season with the buyout and $4.9MM next year. They will save $2.5MM the two years after that and then have a cap charge of $2.13MM for four years.

While it is an expensive penalty to pay, it was a necessary move for the Canucks. Ekman-Larsson’s play has fallen off a cliff in recent years as the once elite defender has struggled since the 2019-20 season. There was a time when it was a given that he would play 25 minutes a night, put up 40-50 points a season and post terrific underlying numbers. But those days are long gone and his play as of late is more in line with that of a third pairing defenseman. The Karlskrona, Sweden native hasn’t posted 30 points since the 2019-20 season and hasn’t posted much in the way of positive analytics since that time.

Ekman-Larsson’s fall from elite status is surprising, but the buyout may not be the worst thing in the world for him. His salary forced him to play up in the lineup in a spot that was probably asking too much given where his skillset is at. With the buyout he could find a situation where he is paid like a 5-6 defenseman and deployed like one too. This could ultimately lead to a bit of a resurgence for Ekman-Larsson. However, if another team offers to pay him like a 3-4 defenseman based on name recognition, they may be disappointed with the results that they see, not unlike the Ryan Suter situation with the Dallas Stars.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report the buyout.

Evening Notes: Sabres, Bezeau, USHL

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Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News reported today that the Buffalo Sabres are in contract discussions with a pair of former first overall picks. The Sabres are trying to work out extensions with franchise defenseman Rasmus Dahlin as well as Owen Power who was a workhorse in his rookie season. Both men are eligible for to sign contract extensions on July 1st and have expressed interest in inking long-term with the Sabres. Lysowski acknowledges that the Sabres don’t have any rush to sign either man to an extension as they both still have a year left on their current deals, but if they were to get the new contracts done on July 1st it would give the Sabres some cost certainty as they head into free agency at what is a critical point in their rebuild.

Dahlin will be looking for a long-term contract and could get something in the range of $9MM to $10MM on a long-term deal. The Swedish defender is coming off a season in which he put up 15 goals and 58 assists in 78 games while playing almost 26 minutes a night. For Power, he could sign long term but may elect to sign a bridge deal in the hopes of maximizing his earnings when he is more established and the salary cap has gone up. In his rookie season he played almost 24 minutes a night and had four goals and 31 assists in 79 games.

In other evening notes:

  • The Charlotte Checkers have announced that they have re-signed right winger Riley Bezeau to a two-year AHL contract. Bezeau spent this past season in the Queen City putting up five goals and three assists in 51 AHL games and finishing second on the team with 84PIM. The 21-year-old was previously an assistant captain of the Saint John Sea Dogs team that captured the Memorial Cup in 2021-22 in a season that saw him post 11 goals and 16 assists in 56 games.
  • The USHL announced today that Glenn Hefferan has been selected as the 11th president and commissioner in league history. Heffernan will take over on July 1st and is familiar with USA hockey having been a board and committee member for several years in various capacities as well as a member of the USA Hockey Executive Committee since June 2021. Back in 2012 Heffernan was awarded the Dr. John J. McMullen Award for service to New Jersey Amateur Hockey, an award he was given by the New Jersey Devils.

Devils Expected To File For Arbitration With Timo Meier

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The New Jersey Devils have been busy today, fresh off signing Jesper Bratt to an eight-year extension Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman is reporting that the club will likely take forward Timo Meier to team elected arbitration. This doesn’t prevent either side from continuing to negotiate a long-term deal, but it does give the Devils some leverage as they head into conversations with the 26-year-old. The team elected arbitration could result in a salary that is 85% of Meier’s 2022-23 salary which came in at $10MM.

Meier came over to the Devils in late February after a blockbuster trade with the San Jose Sharks. He took some time to settle in with New Jersey and put up nine goals and five assists in 21 games with the Devils to finish out the regular season. He would ultimately finish his season with 40 goals and 26 assists in 78 games split between the two teams. In the playoffs Meier struggled mightily posting just two goals and two assists in 11 games and was largely a non-factor in the team’s series win over the New York Rangers going pointless in seven games and suffering a huge hit from Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba. Meier was much stronger in the team’s second round series against Carolina putting up four points in four games.

The Devils decision to file for arbitration isn’t all that surprising given that they are largely negotiating from a position of weakness as Meier holds the hammer in their contract discussion sitting just a year away from unrestricted free agency. He could simply just go to arbitration and walk away next summer.

As mentioned earlier, with the team elected arbitration Meier could see his salary reduced by as much as 15% depending on how the arbitration process plays out. While that won’t do much on a long-term contract, it could lead to an acceleration in the contract discussions with Meier’s camp which would allow New Jersey some clarity as they head into the draft and free agency in the upcoming weeks. The Devils have a busy summer ahead as they try to build on their first series win in over a decade.

Winnipeg Jets Sign Fabian Wagner

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The Winnipeg Jets announced today that they have signed forward Fabian Wagner to a three-year, entry-level contract. The deal runs through the 2025-26 season and carries a cap hit of $858,333. Wagner was Winnipeg’s sixth-round selection in the 2022 NHL entry draft and is currently scheduled to take part in the Jets development camp in early July.

The Nykoping, Sweden native spent this past season back home playing with Linkoping’s junior and SHL teams. In the SHL he was held pointless in 22 games, however for their under-20 squad he put up 11 goals and 22 assists in 33 games. He found less success in the playoffs putting up just a single assist in four games.

At 6’0” and 176 pounds, Wagner is a bit undersized, however he is regarded as an excellent passer and a bit of a playmaker. Scouts also consider him to be patient with the puck and not a player who will try and force a play that isn’t there. He does have some playmaking to his game evidenced by his production as he has averaged around a point a game in the J20 Nationell as well as the World Juniors where he had two goals in four assists in seven games while representing Sweden.

Winnipeg has a lot of veteran forwards in front of Wagner on the depth charts, however depending on how their summer shakes out they could be entering a rebuild which would leave a lot of opportunities for him to make his mark in both the AHL and NHL.  Wagner is likely a longshot to make it to the NHL, but if he can continue to develop his game in the Jets system, he may be able to breakthrough and play a role in Winnipeg’s bottom six. This contract indicates that the Jets are encouraged by the development of one of their late picks from last year’s draft and should give the 19-year-old some confidence when he comes over to North America to begin his professional career.

Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Canucks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Ethan Bear – Bear was traded from Carolina to Vancouver and was one of the Canucks better defensemen last season. While he only played 61 games for the club, he showed that he was one of their few mobile defensemen. At 25-years of age Bear is due a qualifying offer of $2.2MM and could walk for nothing if the team decides not to qualify him. Bear put up three goals and 16 assists while showing dependability in a middle six pairing and although he will never turn into an offensive star, he can give you a solid 18 minutes a night and provide good support on a penalty kill.

Jan 10, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Vancouver Canucks defenseman Ethan Bear (74) handles the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the first period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Bear is just a year away from unrestricted free agency and after bouncing around a few teams he will likely be looking for some stability on his next contract. Vancouver may want to see more of Bear before they commit to him long-term, making a one year deal the likeliest outcome. Vancouver has Tyler Myers coming off the books next summer and could simply commit some of his money to Bear should the former fifth round pick show that he is a capable replacement.

D Travis Dermott – Dermott’s stay with the Canucks has been largely disrupted by concussions that have kept him out of the lineup for several extended periods of time. When he was able to get into the lineup, he clearly wasn’t 100% evidenced by his inability to get back to the level of played he showed when he was a Toronto Maple Leaf. Dermott saw several stints in the Leafs top-4 during his five seasons with the club but could never stay in Vancouver’s lineup long enough to earn that kind of promotion.

It’s a sad situation for the Newmarket native as at one point he did look like a capable two-way defender who could chip in 20-25 points on the back end. But in two seasons with Vancouver Dermott has only been able to put up two goals and a single assist in 28 games while playing sheltered minutes. Even more alarming was that Vancouver controlled just 40% of the scoring chances with Dermott on the ice despite him playing almost exclusively against bottom six competition.

At this point it seems likely that Vancouver will not qualify Dermott at his $1.75MM salary and he will become an unrestricted free agent. He should be able to get another crack at an NHL job, although it will likely come on a one-year deal for league minimum.

Other RFAs: F Carson Focht, D Akito Hirose, F Nils Hoglander, F Vitali Kravtsov

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Kyle Burroughs – Burroughs played a career high 48 games this past season for his hometown Canucks and put up two goals and three assists while averaging just over 17 minutes a night in ice time. He is best suited for a role as a seventh defenseman and can fill in on a third pairing in a pinch. The soon to be 28-year-old became a bit of a cult hero in Vancouver as his dependable defensive play and physicality made him a fan favourite. Burroughs fits in with the culture that head coach Rick Tocchet is trying to cultivate and likely wouldn’t cost more than league minimum on a two-year contract. It makes sense from both the players side and the Canucks side, however there could be a few obstacles to a deal getting done.

Cap issues could hinder any attempts to sign the depth defenseman and given that the Canucks already have several depth defensemen signed for next season they could view a Jack Rathbone or a Christian Wolanin as a similar option to Burroughs. Regardless of what happens Burroughs has likely earned himself a bit of short-term security either with Vancouver or another NHL team that values what he brings to the table.

G Collin Delia – Delia played a career high 20 games this past season for Vancouver, and while he set a new benchmark for games played, they weren’t particularly good ones. Delia posted a 10-6-2 record with a save percentage of .882 and a goals against of 3.28. The California native battled hard in the net for the Canucks, unfortunately his goals saved above expected was -4.3, putting him in the negative for the fifth straight year. While even the best goaltenders can have a stretch where they give up goals on saveable shots, a five year stretch likely shows the Delia is not an NHL caliber backup.

Vancouver has several options in their pipeline that are already signed to contracts, including Spencer Martin who also struggled in net for the Canucks last season. Martin probably isn’t a better option than Delia, but Vancouver could easily find a more suitable backup in free agency should they prioritize finding some dependable relief for starter Thatcher Demko.

Other UFAs:  F Justin Dowling, D Noah Juulsen, D Brady Keeper, F John Stevens

Projected Cap Space

The Vancouver Canucks are currently the only team that is projected to be over the salary cap for the 2023-24 season with just 18 players signed. To put it bluntly, their salary cap is a mess. Much of it was inherited by the current management group but they have done little to alleviate any of the stress on their bottom line.

The good news for Vancouver is that they don’t have any expensive free agents to sign and should be able to free up cap space by putting Tanner Pearson and Tucker Poolman on LTIR when the season begins. If they do this it will allow them to fill out their roster and dress a full lineup on opening night. Although, this likely won’t be good enough for the current management group. Vancouver is caught in the middle; they don’t have enough talent to be a cup contender and they have too many overpriced contracts. They also likely can’t sell another rebuild to their fans as they are supposed to be currently enjoying the fruits of their last rebuild.

It should be a busy summer for the Canucks, they have a lot of pieces they would like to move, and a management group led by Jim Rutherford who is perhaps the most aggressive executive in the NHL today. The Canucks could look wildly different come training camp in September.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Lightning.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Tanner Jeannot – Jeannot was traded just prior to this year’s deadline for one of the most eyepopping returns we’ve seen in recent memory. Tampa Bay traded five draft picks plus Callan Foote for Jeannot who was held pointless in three playoff games this year. It remains to be seen if Jeannot can recapture the magic he showed in the 2021-22 season where he put up 24 goals and 17 assists in 81 games for the Nashville Predators and looked to be well on his way to being the NHL’s next power forward. This past year was a different story for the 26-year-old as he appeared lost at times and struggled to get to his game. He put up just six goals and 12 assists in 76 games between Nashville and Tampa Bay and looked as though he was searching for answers as the season went on.

Apr 20, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Luke Schenn (2) fights with Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Tanner Jeannot (84) during the third period in game two of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay will be looking for bigger things from the Saskatchewan native next season as their depth will be tested in the absence of some key contributors. Jeannot’s deployment changed after the trade from Nashville, and he was gifted the opportunity to have about 10% more offensive zone starts than he was getting with the Predators. He also saw less time on both the penalty kill and the powerplay which led to an average of three minutes less ice time per game. Jeannot may see more ice time this coming season as a lot of the forwards that were pushing him down the depth chart are likely to be exiting Tampa Bay this summer. This could lead Jeannot to sign a short-term deal to try and rebuild some of his value after coming off what was a bit of a lost season. I would expect a two-year bridge contract, but it is hard to nail down the annual value given how wildly different his past two seasons were. There are few comparables to Jeannot which should make for an interesting negotiation.

F Ross Colton – Colton has become a bit of a Swiss army knife for the Lightning and therein lies his value in the trade market, but also for any contract extension he is to sign. Colton is due for a significant raise on the $1.25MM he made last season. Given that he is a good penalty killer, can play center and the wing as is a good bet to hit 15 goals and 35 points he could triple his salary next season on a long-term deal.

Tampa Bay will have to decide if Colton is the piece to move out to bring in younger and cheaper assets, or if he is a piece that want to extend on a contract not unlike the one they signed Nick Paul to last summer. At 26-years-old Colton has plenty of productive seasons in front of him and could even develop into a perennial 25 goal scorer. He already has a season in which he scored 22 goals and is coming off a year where he put up 16 goals in 81 games while playing just 12 minutes a night.

Other RFAs: F Rūdolfs Balcers, F Gabriel Fortier, F Cole Koepke, F Grant Mismash, F Simon Ryfors, D Dmitri Semykin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Alex Killorn – Killorn is the longest tenured Tampa Bay Lightning player having been drafted back in the third round of the 2007 NHL entry draft. The 33-year-old Halifax native is coming off a season in which he posted a career high 27 goals and 37 assists in 82 games. According to Elliotte Friedman, Tampa Bay has reportedly already made Killorn a long-term contract offer, but given his track record, he will be in demand and could be difficult for Tampa Bay to retain given their salary cap troubles.

Killorn has been consistency available for the Lightning having missed just two games since the 2015-16 season and scoring 40 points or more in nearly every season. While his 64 points this past season appear to be an outlier, he did put up 59 points last season and has shown steady offensive improvement despite being on the older side of 30. Tampa Bay can still make Killorn’s situation interesting, but it does appear that the long-time Lightning veteran will start next season in a different uniform. Killorn should be able to fetch a four-year contract with an average annual value north of $5MM per season.

D Ian Cole – Two-time Stanley Cup winner Ian Cole signed last season in Tampa Bay to provide the Lightning with a depth defenseman who could provide steady minutes on the backend as well as kill penalties. He did exactly that.

While his best years are likely behind him, Cole still played nearly 20 minutes a night and took almost 60% of his starts in the defensive zone. He doesn’t chip in much offensively, but he can still move the puck and get around the ice when he needs to. Cole had three goals and 14 assists in 78 games last season for Tampa Bay and could likely produce something similar again next season. Cole is likely looking for more security on his next deal as he has signed in back-to-back off-season’s for just a single year. However, I can’t see him getting more than two years at around $2.5MM-$3MM per season. It’s hard to say though, given the contracts NHL general managers threw at defensive defenseman last offseason, anything is possible for the 33-year-old.

C Pierre-Édouard Bellemare – Bellemare struggled in the minors before breaking into the NHL in his age 29 season. While it was a nice story at the time, Bellemare used his arrival to springboard himself into nine seasons in the NHL. Now at the age of 38, the native of France is coming off a down year in which his age appeared to catch up with him. Bellemare looked tired near the end of the year and struggled to four goals and nine assists in 73 games. Bellemare appeared to chase the game a lot more this season and had a hard time lining up hits, he also took more penalties as he uncharacteristically found himself out of position and was forced to take obstruction penalties.

Should he choose to keep playing, Bellemare could get a one-year contract, but given his age and lack of production last season, he is likely looking for something that is just above the NHL minimum.

Other UFAs: D Trevor Carrick, G Brian Elliott, F Pierre-Cédric Labrie, G Maxime Lagace, F Corey Perry, F Gemel Smith, F Daniel Walcott

Projected Cap Space

The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of a handful of teams that are right up against the cap with several key free agents to still try and lockup. Tampa has 17 players signed to NHL contracts with just $450K left to try and fill out their lineup. They will be able to put Brent Seabrook onto LTIR which will free up nearly $7MM in additional space. While this gives the Lightning some breathing room, it still won’t be enough to dress a full lineup for next season.

The club will likely have to move out a roster player or two to sign their remaining RFA’s which will create an additional complication. The Lightning have four players with full no movement clauses and an additional four players with full no trade clauses or modified no trade clauses. That effectively takes half of their signed players out of play if they are looking to make a move to free up cap space which will limit general manager Julien BriseBois’ options.

Tampa Bay has done a good job navigating cap challenges in the past but could be facing their toughest task yet as their two-time cup winning core has become increasingly expensive.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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