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Five Key Stories: 9/9/24 – 9/15/24

September 15, 2024 at 9:09 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

With training camps on the horizon, PTO agreements were the theme of the week with many veterans taking one to get a landing spot for training camp.  In the meantime, there was some other notable news across the NHL which is recapped in our key stories.

Columbus Adds A Veteran: On Saturday, Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell indicated that he would be looking to add a forward or two heading into training camp.  He wasted little time getting one of them as the team signed veteran winger James van Riemsdyk to a one-year, $900K contract.  The 35-year-old is coming off a decent season in Boston, one that saw him record 11 goals and 27 assists in 71 games despite averaging just 13:30 per night, his lowest ATOI since his rookie campaign in 2009-10.  Columbus is certainly on the lookout for some scoring help following the trade of Patrik Laine and the tragic death of Johnny Gaudreau while forward Justin Danforth is also now injured so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them do something else fairly quickly.

Surgery For Kane: For months now, it has been expected that Oilers winger Evander Kane was going to miss time with the injury that sidelined him late in the playoffs.  We now know the nature of the injury as it was revealed that the veteran will undergo sports hernia surgery within the next week.  Kane played through the injury for a good chunk of the regular season and most of the playoffs but was only able to dress in two games in the Stanley Cup Final.  There’s no word on exactly how long the procedure will keep Kane out for but assuming it’s for more than 10 games and 24 days, Edmonton will be able to place him on LTIR if they need to in order to keep cap-compliant.

Four For Larsson: Veteran defenseman Adam Larsson was picked by Seattle in expansion despite being a pending unrestricted free agent although he was quickly signed to a four-year deal.  The 31-year-old has been a solid defender in his first three seasons with them while even managing a career year offensively in 2022-23.  He was rewarded for his efforts earlier in the week as the Kraken signed him to a four-year, $21MM contract extension which begins in the 2025-26 season.  The deal represents a $1.1MM per season raise from his current deal and carries full trade protection for the first two years before it drops to a 15-team no-trade clause.

Shoulder Injury For Hughes: With this being a contract year for Devils defenseman Luke Hughes, it’s safe to say he was hoping to get off to a strong start to his season.  That won’t be the case now as the team announced that he suffered a left shoulder injury while training, one that will keep him out for six to eight weeks.  That means the 21-year-old will miss all of training camp, the preseason, and the start of the regular season.  Hughes had a promising rookie year, recording 47 points in 82 games last season which helped make him a finalist for the Calder Trophy.  He’ll now have to wait a little longer to try to build off that performance.

Toronto Signs Three: The Maple Leafs were busy finalizing their roster heading into training camp.  First, they took care of their last remaining restricted free agent, re-signing Nicholas Robertson to a one-year, $875K contract.  The 23-year-old had 27 points in 56 games last season but had made it known his preference was to get a change of scenery.  Now, he’ll look to make an impression under new head coach Craig Berube and establish himself higher in the lineup.

Meanwhile, they added two new players to the team as well.  Veteran Max Pacioretty signed a PTO agreement although his agent, Octagon’s Allan Walsh, quickly noted that they expect to have a contract in place by the start of the regular season.  The 35-year-old has battled injuries the last three seasons but still managed to record 23 points in 47 games with Washington in 2023-24.  Lastly, the team finally inked defenseman Jani Hakanpaa, who they had agreed to terms with on the opening day of free agency.  However, the terms are slightly different.  Instead of a two-year, $3MM agreement, he received a one-year, $1.47MM contract with an eight-team no-trade clause.  Hakanpaa was a physical presence on the back end in Dallas last season but there are concerns over his knee after missing the end of the season and the playoffs due to injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NHL Week In Review

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Canucks Sign Dylan Ferguson To PTO Deal

September 15, 2024 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

The Canucks have been looking for some goaltending insurance with Thatcher Demko’s lingering injury.  They’ve found an extra netminder for training camp as the team announced (Twitter link) that they’ve signed Dylan Ferguson to a PTO agreement.

The 25-year-old spent last season in the KHL after being non-tendered last summer.  He played in 23 games with Dinamo Minsk, posting a 9-9-0 record along with a 2.51 GAA and a .904 SV%, putting him 30th and 46th respectively in those categories.

Ferguson has three career NHL appearances under his belt, one with Vegas in their inaugural season and two with Ottawa in the 2022-23 campaign.  In between those outings, he has spent parts of four seasons in the minors but played only sparingly due to injuries, getting into just 29 games overall where he put up a 2.56 GAA and a .915 SV%.

As things stand, Arturs Silovs is set to serve as the starter in Demko’s absence with free agent signing Jiri Patera – formerly Ferguson’s teammate in Vegas – operating as the backup.  That could give Ferguson a chance to battle for minutes with Nikita Tolopilo and Ty Young who are both on their entry-level deals.  While it seems unlikely that Ferguson would get an NHL deal at this time, if he does, he can be controlled through the 2025-26 season.

Transactions| Vancouver Canucks Dylan Ferguson

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PHR Mailbag: Bounce-Back Seasons, McDavid, Breakout Player, Flames, Bedard, Demidov, No-Move Clauses

September 15, 2024 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what type of point production could be expected from Connor Bedard this season, which teams could be interested in Calgary’s veterans, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

frozenaquatic: This is a question about expectations, both low and high: Who has a bigger bounce-back season, Matthew Beniers or Trevor Zegras? How do Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli stack up in their sophomore campaigns? And what do we really expect out of Pierre-Luc Dubois for the Caps in terms of production (what’s your prediction for goals and points)?

DigbyGuy: I would add Dylan Cozens to the bounce-back season question.

1) Between Beniers, Zegras, and Cozens, I’d go with Cozens.  The Ducks had a dreadful showing offensively last year and didn’t add anyone of consequence to help their roster.  Yes, there will be some improvement from their young core – including Zegras – but a bounce-back year for him might be staying healthy and getting to 55 points.  I think Beniers can beat his rookie-season numbers although I’m not expecting a huge jump past that.  I’d put him in the 60-65-point range.  Cozens has already gotten there before and I expect the Sabres to be more consistent offensively so I’d slot him a few points ahead of Beniers.

2) I’m concerned about the offensive situation in Columbus.  More specifically, the lack thereof.  The Blue Jackets have a very weak attack as things stand and even if Fantilli plays a big role, a big point total is unlikely.  I could see him around 50-55 points.  Anaheim’s situation, as I noted above, isn’t particularly good either but I’d put theirs ahead.  Add to that Carlsson likely playing on the front line (Fantilli probably starts behind Sean Monahan, their big offseason signing) and I think Carlsson lands around 60-65 points.

3) I think Dubois will primarily line up on the second line which is going to put his playing time pretty close (maybe slightly better) than it was with the Kings last season.  He’s also now on a team that doesn’t have quite as much offensive depth.  That should give Dubois enough runway to be more productive than he was a year ago but I wouldn’t put him at the level he was at with Winnipeg.  I think he’ll wind up somewhere around 22 goals and 53 points.

drew ford: There’s social media banter about Connor McDavid playing out his Oiler contract and signing back home in Toronto. Do you think this is a possibility?

Two years out from McDavid’s free agency, anything is technically a possibility at this point.  If things go entirely off the rails this season, he could very well decide that he wants to see what it’s like to play somewhere else and yes, his hometown team could theoretically be one of those options.  But the odds of that happening have to be quite low.

For starters, Edmonton is widely expected to be a contender this season and just inked Leon Draisaitl to a record-setting contract, declining to match two offer sheets to ensure enough money was available to do so.  This is a team that is squarely focused on winning now.  When you’re in an environment like that and having the type of success he has had, why leave?  If they were embarking on a rebuild, that’s one thing but there’s no indication they’ll be in that situation for the foreseeable future.

The other challenge the Maple Leafs would have is affording him.  Yes, Mitch Marner and John Tavares are on expiring contracts and if they were only replaced (or retained) on one-year deals, they could keep enough flexibility to be able to afford McDavid should he actually hit the open market in 2026.  I don’t see that happening so I’m skeptical they’d be able to afford the $16MM or more it’s probably going to take to sign him.  But again, it’s highly unlikely he makes it that far anyway.  Never say never to a hypothetical free agent situation two years out but let’s just say this is something I don’t expect to happen.

Nha Trang: Time for my annual question: who’s the guy who comes out of nowhere to be a major impact player this season?

Evidently, I’m getting worse at this each season.  The first time this question came up, I had Tage Thompson in his breakout year.  Then I went with Taylor Raddysh for 2022-23 and while he managed 20 goals, that wasn’t the same level of a breakout.  Morgan Geekie was my pick last season and although he had a career year with 39 points in 76 games, that’s not a true breakout.  (I did get a reasonable return on one of my two longshot picks though with Michael Carcone getting a 21-goal campaign after just having six career NHL tallies heading into the year.)

For 2022-23, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  I’ll continue to stick with that despite it making this question a bit more challenging.

My initial thought to this question is Montreal’s Kirby Dach.  He’s coming off yet another injury-riddled campaign but he showed some positive signs when healthy in his first season with the Canadiens.  He also now has an intriguing winger in Patrik Laine.  If the two of them can stay healthy (and that’s a big if on both fronts), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Dach could push for 60 points which would be a new personal best by a pretty big margin.  That’s not quite a Thompson-like leap but it would certainly flip the script on him being an underwhelming top-three pick to an impact player.

Jaysen: I’m not an expert by any means but I can sense that the Flames are about to enter a full-scale rebuild, even though they might not say it. Kadri has been rumored to be available. But that Huberdeau contract is nearly impossible to move. I’d keep Weegar, for now.

What are your top three destinations for both Kadri and Huberdeau, and what would be the best trade return for both players that could benefit the Flames? And for Huberdeau, let’s propose a return where the Flames retain and one where they don’t.

DigbyGuy: I would add Rasmus Andersson to this as well.

I’m going to cover Jonathan Huberdeau first as the answer here is pretty quick.  With him making $10.5MM through 2030-31 and coming off two seasons with a point total in the 50s, there isn’t one viable trade option for him let alone three.  That contract might be the worst in the league.  Could there be a fit with maximum retention?  Possibly but the return wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to justify the $36.75MM in actual money they’d have to pay Huberdeau not to play for them; ownership probably isn’t signing off on that type of move either.  Maybe there would be an option three or four years from now when the term isn’t as bad but right now, that’s not a movable contract.

Nazem Kadri, on the other hand, has a viable trade market should GM Craig Conroy choose to pursue it.  At $7MM for four years, it’s a bit pricey for a second liner but there’s always high demand for a center.  Winnipeg comes to mind as a good fit as they’ve been looking for a consistent second center behind Mark Scheifele for a while.  Minnesota would be another fit although they’d need to wait until next season to do it (or Calgary would really have to pay down the cost) to make it work within their current cap situation.  But they’re another team that hasn’t had a consistent number two option for a while.

For a third team, I’d put Chicago which might seem strange at first glance given the prospect depth they have down the middle.  But those prospects might be a couple more years away and at that point, Kadri becomes a high-end third option, one they can afford since they’ll have so many players and prospects on likely below-market contracts.  But as they look to get through their rebuild, they will need some capable veterans.

As for a hypothetical trade scenario, there are way too many elements to consider here.  Can they retain?  If so, how much?  Can they take money back?  If so, how much?  How full-scale of a rebuild are they going for?  That determines the preferred type of assets to acquire (draft picks, junior-aged prospects, or pieces close to contributing now.)  Each answer to each question would modify the trade proposal and that’s too many variables to get through in a piece like this for three separate teams.  The short answer is that if it’s a full-scale rebuild (and I’m not convinced it is), get the best combination of assets possible regardless of whether they’re near-ready pieces or ones that are five or six years away.  You can always find short-term stopgaps (bridge players as I call them sometimes) to fill out a roster or hold a spot to allow a prospect to develop properly so Conroy shouldn’t restrict himself to looking for specific types of assets.

Onto Andersson now.  If Calgary decides to move him, I imagine Conroy would get a call from about 15 general managers in about 15 minutes.  The contract is more than manageable ($4.55MM for a top-pairing player for only two years) and he’s a right-shot player to boot, the side that’s always in high demand.  The best way to answer this is as follows.  If you’re wondering about teams who might be interested, look at the standings on March 1st.  Pretty much any team within five points of a playoff spot at that time would be calling unless they’re a team already well-stocked on the back end.  Dallas and Nashville come to mind in particular; no, I wasn’t cherry-picking Central Division teams as landing spots on purpose, it just worked out that way.

bottlesup: With Bedard getting a year of experience under his belt and much more veteran support around him, is it possible to think he can hit a point per game this year?

Yeah, I’d say that’s a more than reasonable goal to try to achieve.  He wasn’t that far off the mark last season with 61 points in 68 games.  With the return of Taylor Hall (who missed all of last season) and the additions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, he’s going to have wingers who are much better fits to play on the top line and should be better at finishing some of Bedard’s passes.  If he stays healthy, 90 points is where I’d peg Bedard’s point total at for the upcoming season.

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@3rdWorldGhost: I don’t understand why people are saying that Demidov is better than Michkov. I’m a @CanadiensMTL fan, but let’s be real, Demidov (I’m a fan) played great in the MHL, Michkov starred in the K. Very different levels of competition there. So, is this just media-driven?

I don’t think it’s media-driven at all.  We’re talking about two highly-skilled Russian prospects who were originally projected to be top two or three picks that slid on draft day taken just one year apart.  One went fifth, one went seventh.  They’re close enough that they’re going to be compared and some will have one ahead of the other.

One of the challenges with comparing the two is indeed quality of competition as you noted.  SKA St. Petersburg elected to loan Matvei Michkov to KHL Sochi, giving him a chance to play big minutes for a team that simply wasn’t very good.  That same organization felt that they were better off demoting Ivan Demidov down two levels to the MHL last season, a move that really didn’t make much sense then or now.  Just because Michkov lit it up doesn’t mean that Demidov wouldn’t have had he been afforded the same opportunity.  It doesn’t mean Demidov would have been as successful either but it does make it a lot harder to compare the two based on quality of competition.  Michkov having KHL success gives him some points in the comparison but it’s not the primary ranking factor either.

In the scouting world, it comes down to tools.  Frankly, both players have a vast and well-rounded toolkit of skills which is why they’re so highly touted.  Some scouts probably prefer Michkov, some think Demidov, who’s a year younger, will ultimately have the better skills.  It’s all in the eyes of the scout.  I wouldn’t read too much into a ranking pinning one ahead of the other; I’d say the general consensus is that the two are rated almost equally.

Jakeattack: I might be misunderstanding this, but what is the reasoning behind a player having both an NMC and a modified no-trade clause? Case in point, PuckPedia says that for Jonathan Marchessault.

In cases like this, think of the NMC as a NWC – a no-waivers clause.  If a player has a full no-move clause and nothing else, it’s a catch-all that prevents a trade or waiver placement without consent.  But if a player only has partial trade protection as Marchessault does, the addition of the no-move is merely to prevent a waiver placement.  This is actually fairly common around the league, especially for teams that are a bit stingier with how they hand out trade protection as Nashville is.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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Snapshots: Ehlers, Demko, Zelenov, Buium

September 15, 2024 at 6:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Earlier in the offseason, there was a fair amount of trade speculation surrounding Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers although a move never materialized.  Now in the final season of his seven-year, $42MM contract, the 28-year-old is now extension-eligible leading some to wonder if the fact he wasn’t traded could mean there are positive signs towards a new agreement.  That doesn’t appear to be the case, however, as GM Kevin Cheveldayoff told Thomas Drance of The Athletic (subscription link) that they are taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to contract talks for Ehlers.  While he allowed for the possibility of in-season discussions, he noted that they might wait to address it until after the upcoming season.  Ehlers had 25 goals and 36 assists in 81 games last season, his best offensive performance since when he was on his entry-level contract.  It appears Cheveldayoff may be wanting to wait to see if that will be repeatable under new head coach Scott Arniel before beginning extension talks.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Canucks don’t have a target date in mind for Thatcher Demko to return from his knee injury, head coach Rick Tocchet told Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre. However, the bench boss acknowledged that the netminder is excited about how his recovery is progressing and that he has been improving over the past two to three weeks which is certainly a positive sign.  Vancouver has been looking at free agents to see if there’s a viable option to bring in as insurance but as of yet, they haven’t been able to reach an agreement with one.  Arturs Silovs, who took over the starting job in the playoffs, is in line to open the season as Vancouver’s starter assuming Demko won’t be ready to play by then.
  • Sabres prospect Vasili Zelenov has committed to play for Wisconsin, reports Mark Divver of the New England Hockey Journal (Twitter link). The 18-year-old was a seventh-round pick in June, going 204th overall after a strong season in Austria that saw him record 37 points in 40 games. Zelenov is set to suit up for USHL Green Bay this season and will likely look to make the jump to Wisconsin for the 2025-26 campaign.
  • Red Wings prospect blueliner Shai Buium was injured today after taking a shot off the ankle, relays Max Bultman of The Athletic (Twitter link). The team is hopeful that he will be able to take part in Detroit’s training camp but it’s too early for that to be known just yet.  Buium is getting set for his first professional season after spending the last three years at the University of Denver.  He finished up his college career on a high note with 36 points in 43 games last season before making his debut with AHL Grand Rapids for one game.

Buffalo Sabres| Detroit Red Wings| Snapshots| Vancouver Canucks| Winnipeg Jets Nikolaj Ehlers| Shai Buium| Thatcher Demko| Vasili Zelenov

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Victor Soderstrom Signs Two-Year Deal In SHL

September 15, 2024 at 2:09 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Sunday: TSN’s Chris Johnston reports the deal is finalized and Soderstrom will join Brynäs on a two-year agreement. It will mark the first time since the 2019-20 season that Soderstrom has suited up for the Swedish squad. The Utah Hockey Club will retain his signing rights as a restricted free agent should he choose to return to North America after the end of the contract.

Saturday: Should the deal get finalized, it will be a two-year agreement for Soderstrom in Brynäs, Abrahamsson and Rose report.  There is no word if the deal contains an NHL out clause should Utah move Soderstrom’s NHL rights.

Thursday: One of the remaining restricted free agents around the NHL is Utah defenseman Victor Soderstrom.  He has made it known that he wasn’t a fan of how things went last season when he only got into three games with the Coyotes after playing in 30 in 2022-23.

While the plan seemed to be for him to remain in North America for the upcoming season, that may not be the case anymore.  Aftonbladet’s Hans Abrahamsson and Tomas Rose report that Utah is not inclined to part with the 2019 first-round pick.  Meanwhile, while Soderstrom’s preference would be to sign an NHL deal, it appears as if he’s unwilling to do so with Utah at this time, resulting in him looking into overseas options.

Abrahamsson and Rose note that quite a few Swiss League teams and SHL squads have shown interest in the 23-year-old with his old team in Brynäs believed to be finalizing a deal with him.  In doing so, Soderstrom will be leaving some money on the table compared to other offers out there but it would allow him to return to the program he spent several years in before being drafted by Arizona.

Last season, Soderstrom played in 62 games with AHL Tucson, notching nine goals and 23 assists, both career-bests at that level but it didn’t seem to help his fortunes for a recall.  Now, with Utah overhauling its back end with the additions of Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino, and Ian Cole, securing a roster spot to start the season will be even more difficult.

It’s worth noting that Soderstrom is now waiver-eligible so had he signed an NHL deal, he’d have had to go through waivers to return to the minors, giving other teams an opportunity to add him.  Instead, it appears as if he’ll return home at least for the upcoming season.  Utah will retain his rights as a restricted free agent and the stalemate between the two sides will continue for the foreseeable future.

SHL| Utah Mammoth Victor Soderstrom

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Blue Jackets Looking To Add Forwards In Free Agency

September 14, 2024 at 5:21 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

The Blue Jackets’ forward group has been thinned out in recent weeks.  The team moved Patrik Laine to Montreal while Johnny Gaudreau tragically passed away late last month.  Meanwhile, GM Don Waddell told reporters today including Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch (Twitter link) that forward Justin Danforth won’t be available for the start of training camp due to a hand/wrist injury.

Danforth sustained the injury late last season and underwent offseason surgery.  However, it appears that the recovery isn’t going as well as possible and he’s set to be re-evaluated on Monday.  The 31-year-old posted a career-best 10 goals and 16 assists in 71 games last season while spending time on the wing and down the middle, making him a capable role player.  But now, his availability for the start of the season is in question.

By his count, Waddell states that the team is down to just 10 healthy regular forwards heading into training camp.  While players like Trey Fix-Wolansky, Gavin Brindley, James Malatesta, or free agent signing Dylan Gambrell could play their way into the mix, it stands to reason that they’ll be looking to make some additions up front.

While some might expect those moves to come on the trade front given that they’re nearly $3MM below the $65MM cap floor per PuckPedia, it doesn’t appear that will be the case.  Instead, Waddell indicated that their intention is to sign one or two forwards before training camp, relays Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (Twitter link).  These would be players on full contracts, not tryouts.

However, the list of remaining unrestricted free agents isn’t exactly the deepest, especially among those who aren’t tied to a team via a PTO.  Among the remaining options that haven’t secured a tryout are wingers James van Riemsdyk, Mike Hoffman, Kyle Okposo, Blake Wheeler, and Phil Kessel, who hasn’t given up hope on playing after not suiting up last season.

While signing a couple of those players would help, it wouldn’t get them to the cap floor, barring an overpayment on those contracts.  However, Hedger relays (Twitter link) that he has been in talks with the league and the NHLPA about that and isn’t concerned at this time about being penalized if they stay under that number this season.  While that’s something for them to worry about later on, in the meantime, it looks like Columbus will be making a signing or two in the coming days.

Columbus Blue Jackets Justin Danforth

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Snapshots: Red Wings, Broberg, Islanders

September 14, 2024 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

As the Red Wings work through the process of signing their two top remaining RFAs in defenseman Moritz Seider and winger Lucas Raymond, Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press suggests that their preference is to keep the cap hit for both players below Dylan Larkin’s $8.7MM price tag.  With the price tag for top blueliners coming off their entry-level deals going up relatively quickly, Seider has some comparables past the $8MM mark (Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson and Buffalo’s Owen Power) so it wouldn’t be surprising to see his cost come in relatively close to Larkin’s.  Raymond, meanwhile, might be using Ottawa’s Tim Stutzle ($8.35MM) as a possible comparable which could result in his cost coming close to the captain’s as well.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • While the Blues handed a pricey contract to get Philip Broberg from Edmonton via an offer sheet this summer, Matthew DeFranks of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays that the blueliner probably won’t see power play action right away, even without Torey Krug who is out for the season. Broberg had 39 points in 47 games with AHL Bakersfield last season but head coach Drew Bannister has indicated that their plan for the 23-year-old at this point is to have him killing penalties and that they don’t want to load up on his workload too fast after having a limited role with the Oilers.
  • In his media availability yesterday (video link), Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello indicated that there probably won’t be much of a battle for roster spots on the back end in training camp. Their top six is healthy after an injury-riddled year and their preference is to not have prospects Calle Odelius and Isaiah George in a reserve role to start the season.  Accordingly, the battle for the seventh and final defensive spot in camp could be between returnees Simon Bolduc and Dennis Cholowski.  Bolduc is now waiver-eligible which could help give him a leg up in that battle since Cholowski has cleared successfully in the past.

Detroit Red Wings| New York Islanders| Snapshots| St. Louis Blues Lucas Raymond| Moritz Seider| Philip Broberg

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Utah Hockey Club

September 14, 2024 at 3:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Utah.

Utah Hockey Club

Current Cap Hit: $78,079,643 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Logan Cooley (two years, $950K)
F Josh Doan (two years, $925K)
F Dylan Guenther (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Cooley: $3.5MM
Guenther: $850K
Total: $4.35MM

Cooley’s first NHL season was a solid one.  They kept him in the top six for most of the year while not frequently exposing him to top checking.  While he struggled mightily at the faceoff dot (many rookies do), Utah still views Cooley as their top center of the future.  If he can take a step forward offensively this season, he could be a candidate for a long-term extension next summer.  If that happens, his camp will likely use Juraj Slafkovsky’s contract (eight years, $60.8MM) as a comparable.

Doan impressed in his first taste of NHL action down the stretch, giving him a shot at earning a full-time spot in camp.  But even if that happens, he’ll likely have too small of a track record for an early extension next summer.  Guenther, meanwhile, was able to play in the minors last season but played his way into a promotion relatively quickly where he picked up 35 points in 45 games.  With just 78 games under his belt, an extension in the coming weeks is unlikely but if he puts up a full season at that level of production, he could push for a long-term deal starting with a seven next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Nick Bjugstad ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Michael Carcone ($775K, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jack McBain ($1.599MM, RFA)
G Karel Vejmelka ($2.725MM, UFA)

Kerfoot was a nice addition by Arizona last summer, giving them a capable two-way pivot who is capable of playing high in the lineup, allowing them to ease Cooley in.  If he can have a similar offensive showing this season (45 points), he could push for upwards of $5MM on a multi-year agreement next summer given the consistently high demand for centers.  Bjugstad made the decision to return to the Coyotes last summer and it was a good one as he had his best season offensively since 2017-18.  While they’re certainly pleased with the performance, his track record is as a player with limited offense.  Accordingly, an early extension would be hard to come by as both sides would be better off seeing if his production can be repeatable.  If it is, he could come in closer to $4MM next time out.

McBain has become a capable checking center who has chipped in a bit offensively while throwing his body around.  That’s a solid profile for a player at this price point.  If the upcoming season is similar to these last two, he could double this price tag with arbitration eligibility.  Carcone reached 20 goals last season, his first full NHL campaign at the age of 27.  Obviously, getting a 20-goal scorer for the league minimum is excellent value but how close he comes to repeating that will dictate if he’s going to stay close to this price tag or easily reach seven figures in 2025-26.

This is the fourth year in a row that Cole has taken a one-year deal with a price point between $2.9MM and $3.1MM.  Barring a significant change in his performance, it seems fair to infer that he could be in line for something close to that range next summer as well.

Vejmelka is an interesting case in terms of his free agent value.  On the surface, his numbers are rather pedestrian; he has yet to record a save percentage of .900 or better while the lowest GAA of his three-year career is 3.35, set last season.  And yet, the general perception around him has been that perhaps on a better team, he’s someone who might be more impactful.  With the overhaul Utah has had on the back end this summer, this could be a good test of that theory.  If that happens, Vejmelka could conceivably push for a contract in the higher tier of backup or platoon goalies with a price tag approaching $4MM.  If that doesn’t happen, however, a small pay cut might be coming his way.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Barrett Hayton ($2.65MM, RFA)
G Connor Ingram ($1.985MM, UFA)
D Michael Kesselring ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Matias Maccelli ($3.425MM, RFA)
F Nick Schmaltz ($5.85MM, UFA)
F Kevin Stenlund ($2MM, UFA)
D Juuso Valimaki ($2MM, UFA)
D Shea Weber ($7.857MM, UFA)

Schmaltz has very quietly been one of the steadier Coyotes in recent seasons, ranging between 58 and 61 points in the last three seasons, two of which saw him over a point per game while dealing with injury trouble.  While he’s not a full-time center anymore, he can still play down the middle which will help from a value perspective.  Assuming this production keeps up, he should push past the $7MM mark on his next deal.  Maccelli, meanwhile, wasn’t quite able to produce at the same level as 2022-23 but he came close, giving Arizona solid value on the first year of his bridge deal.  Staying around this level of offensive numbers could put him around the $6MM range on his next contract.

Hayton followed up a career year with arguably his worst one, resulting in what amounts to a second bridge contract.  He’ll only have one season of club control left after this contract expires and both sides will be hoping that he can become much more impactful by then.  Stenlund had a solid season with Florida, chipping in 11 goals in a limited role which allowed him to double his price tag from a year ago and tack on a second season.  This is more on the upper tier for someone who projects as a fourth liner but if he can hang around the double-digit goal mark, he could beat this price tag.

Weber has been on LTIR for the past three years and will continue to be there for the rest of the deal.  With Utah having ample cap space, he won’t be a burden on their cap.  Valimaki has become a reliable second-pairing defender at a price point well below market value.  While the additions could push down his playing time, he could still conceivably double this in 2026.  Kesselring spent most of last season in Arizona for his first consistent taste of NHL action.  He fared pretty well all things considered but with his limited track record, a bridge deal was the way to go.  He’ll have arbitration rights next time out and could double this if he holds onto a regular spot on the third pair.

Ingram has turned into one of the better waiver claims in recent years, going from a third-string option with Nashville to a starter as he played in 50 games last season while leading the league in shutouts.  If he continues on that trajectory and becomes a consistent starter, he could push past $5MM two years from now.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Lawson Crouse ($4.3MM, UFA)
D John Marino ($4.4MM, UFA)
F Liam O’Brien ($1MM, UFA)

It took some time but Crouse has emerged as a consistent top-six power forward, hitting the 20-goal mark in three straight years while averaging 183 hits per season in that span.  Given the high demand for players like this, Crouse appears to be well on his way to passing the $6MM mark on his next deal.  If the cap goes up quickly before 2027, $7MM could be possible if he stays at that level of production.  O’Brien had a career year offensively last season while leading the league in penalty minutes.  That helped earn him this three-year contract, something that a lot of enforcers don’t typically get.  Even if O’Brien struggles, the deal can come off the cap entirely if he’s in the minors, making it a low-risk signing.

Marino was acquired at the draft from New Jersey to help bolster the back end.  While he hasn’t been able to get back to the level of production from his rookie year (which largely helped him earn this agreement), he has been a consistent minutes-eater, logging over 20 minutes a night in each of his five NHL seasons while recording 25 points in two of the last three years.  For a second-pairing player, that’s solid value.

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Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

D Sean Durzi ($6MM through 2027-28)
F Clayton Keller ($7.15MM through 2027-28)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5MM through 2030-31)

Keller has found another gear offensively in recent seasons, averaging just shy of a point per game over the last three years.  In doing so, he has become the consistent top-line forward that they were hoping for when they gave him this contract back in 2019, hoping he’d become a bargain in the back half.  Now halfway through that deal, they’ve already been reaping the benefits and as the cap increases, this should shift into even more of a team-friendly agreement.  Keller probably hasn’t produced enough to this point to be in the mix for a contract of $10MM or more in 2028 but another 80-point season or two could have in that range before too long.

Sergachev was Utah’s biggest acquisition over the summer, being acquired early on the second day of the draft, giving them a legitimate top-pairing defender, albeit one with some risk.  He’s coming off an injury-marred season and only has one year with more than 40 points.  If he can get back to his 2022-23 form with Tampa Bay, this will work out splendidly for GM Bill Armstrong but after missing so much time last season, a slower start could be possible.  Durzi showed that a change of scenery wouldn’t slow him down, keeping up an above-average level of production while averaging just shy of 23 minutes a night, helping him more than triple his cap hit from last season.  Interestingly, the contract only bought two years of club control, allowing him to reach free agency at 29.  While Sergachev will take a big share of prime power play time, Durzi even staying around 40 points consistently could set him up for a bigger deal down the road.

Buyouts

D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($320K in 2024-25, $650K in 2025-26 and 2026-27, $290K from 2027-28 through 2030-31)
F Zack Kassian ($767K in 2024-25)
D Patrik Nemeth ($1.167MM in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Victor Soderstrom – The 2019 first-rounder spent most of last season in the minors despite a solid showing with AHL Tucson which has resulted in Soderstrom declining to re-sign to this point.  A trade doesn’t appear to be coming which has the 23-year-old working on a contract with SHL Brynas for the upcoming season.  If that happens, Utah will retain his RFA rights.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Valimaki
Worst Value: Sergachev

Looking Ahead

For years, the focus for this organization was trying to spend as close to the Lower Limit of the salary cap as possible while spending as little money as possible, resulting in Weber and several other high-priced injured players to get there.  Now, in a new market and with an owner who appears to be willing to spend, Armstrong was active in making some additions while still having more cap space than almost the entire league.

That flexibility should continue for a couple more years, at least.  Cooley and Guenther could be heading for pricey second contracts but even with that, there are enough contracts coming off the books where those can easily be afforded while still having room to add.  This summer’s activity should only be the start of Utah adding some proven veterans over the next few seasons to help them emerge from what has been a long-term rebuilding process.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024| Utah Mammoth

3 comments

West Notes: Vladar, Perfetti, Molendyk

September 14, 2024 at 1:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

With Jacob Markstrom now in New Jersey, the starting job in Calgary is up for grabs.  While top prospect Dustin Wolf is garnering most of the attention, Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson relays that Flames netminder Daniel Vladar is now pain-free and fully recovered from his hip injury.  The 27-year-old struggled mightily last season in limited action, putting up a 3.62 GAA with a .882 SV% in 20 appearances before undergoing surgery in March but he noted that he had been dealing with discomfort for at least the last two seasons.  It’s a contract year for Vladar who carries a $2.2MM price tag.  A pending unrestricted free agent, he could push for double that if he’s able to secure the starting role in 2024-25.

More from out West:

  • While there appears to be a gap to still bridge in discussions between the Jets and RFA forward Cole Perfetti, the 22-year-old told Sportsnet’s Luke Fox that he has given no consideration to the thought of trying to land an offer sheet over concern of creating tension with the organization. Perfetti had a career-best 19 goals and 38 points in 71 games last season but is most likely heading for a short-term bridge deal, allowing Winnipeg to stay cap-compliant while giving Perfetti a chance at a fair-sized increase with arbitration rights in the near future.
  • Predators prospect Tanner Molendyk could be hindered in his push to make the team by the NHL-CHL agreement that will prevent him from being assigned to the AHL this season, suggests Alex Daugherty of The Tennessean. The 19-year-old had 56 points in 50 games with WHL Saskatoon last season, putting him in a spot where he could legitimately make a push for a roster spot in training camp.  However, without an ability to recall him once returned to junior, Molendyk will have to show that he’s worthy of keeping around by his play over the next few weeks.  Otherwise, his NHL debut will have to wait another year.

Calgary Flames| Nashville Predators| Winnipeg Jets Cole Perfetti| Daniel Vladar| Tanner Molendyk

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Canucks Have Offered Kevin Lankinen A Contract

September 14, 2024 at 12:54 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

In recent weeks, the Canucks have been offering PTO deals to some veteran goalies as some insurance with Thatcher Demko’s health still in some question.  After being unable to get either Kevin Lankinen or Antti Raanta to agree to a tryout, they’ve now gone a step further.  Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK and The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that Vancouver has made a one-year full contract offer to Lankinen.  However, the offer was believed to be for less than $1MM, a price tag he doesn’t appear to be willing to accept at this time.

The 29-year-old made $2MM last season in Nashville so Vancouver’s offer would certainly represent a sizable pay cut.  However, the Canucks have less than $200K in cap space per PuckPedia and have made it known that they don’t want to go into using LTIR.  Accordingly, even to make that offer work, they’d have to drop a skater off their roster to be able to afford Lankinen, effectively having to carry three goalies heading into the season if Demko isn’t able to play.

Lankinen spent the last two years with the Predators and put up solid numbers overall, posting a 2.79 GAA and a .912 SV% in 43 games over that span.  Those are certainly above-average for a second-string option which is likely why his camp has been holding out in the hopes of landing a more substantial offer.  However, barring an injury of some significance, most teams have their goaltending set so that better offer might not materialize for a while yet if at all if he continues to wait.

The fact that the Canucks have opted to make a full offer to Lankinen would imply that they remain concerned about Demko’s recovery from a knee injury sustained early in the playoffs last spring.  If they felt he was on track to return on time or even a few games into the season, Vancouver could simply run with Arturs Silovs and new third-stringer Jiri Patera for a couple of weeks and get by that way.  Silovs had a good run in the playoffs and could easily handle the starting role for a handful of games early on.

But if they feel their best option now is to get someone on a full-season deal, it would seem as if there is at least the potential for Demko’s recovery period to drag out even longer.  That type of uncertainty is hardly ideal with training camps now less than a week away.  Whether that will push them to up their offer or if they’ll hold out hope that Lankinen will have a change of heart and accept their most recent offer remains to be seen.

Vancouver Canucks Kevin Lankinen

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