Predators Trade Ryan Johansen To Avalanche
The Avalanche have made a move to add to their forward group as they’ve acquired center Ryan Johansen from the Predators in exchange for the rights to pending free agent forward Alex Galchenyuk. As part of the deal, Nashville will be retaining 50% of Johansen’s contract, one that carries an $8MM cap charge through 2024-25, meaning Colorado will add Johansen on their books at a $4MM price tag. Incoming Predators GM Barry Trotz released the following statement about Johansen’s departure:
“On behalf of the Predators organization, we want to thank Ryan for his contributions to our team and community over the last seven-plus years. He played a large role in our franchise’s accomplishments since arriving in January 2016, helping lead us to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final, the 2018 Presidents’ Trophy, back-to-back Central Division titles in 2018 and 2019 and several postseason appearances. Ryan also dedicated a considerable amount of time to the Predators Foundation and helped us grow the game in Middle Tennessee, including his work with youth hockey in our community. We wish Ryan all the best in Colorado.”
Johansen has spent the last eight seasons with the Predators after they moved Seth Jones to acquire him back in 2016. The hope at the time was that they were moving a top young defenseman for a top young center, one that could emerge as their top option down the middle. Things got off to a reasonable start on that front as he had 95 points in his first 124 games with the Preds, helping him earn his eight-year, $64MM contract. However, after that, his output largely cooled off as he managed just 60 points once in the following four years, never surpassing the 15-goal mark in the process.
In 2021-22, it looked like Johansen had turned a corner as he notched a career-high 26 goals while recording 63 points. Those numbers weren’t exactly worth an $8MM price tag but for the time being, he and Matt Duchene were giving Nashville at least decent production up the middle. Unfortunately, that didn’t carry over to this past season as the 30-year-old managed just 28 points in 55 games before undergoing emergency leg surgery in February, ending his campaign prematurely.
For Colorado, this is a relatively low-risk gamble that Johansen can rediscover his offensive touch. They never truly replaced Nazem Kadri who left in free agency last summer, opting instead to largely go with internal options including J.T. Compher. Compher had a career year in 2022-23, picking up a career-high 52 points but he’s set to become an unrestricted free agent next month and will likely land a contract that’s worth more than what the Avs will be covering on Johansen’s deal. At $4MM, as long as Johansen can put up around 40 points while continuing to be above-average at the faceoff dot, he’ll provide ample value for Colorado and with the firepower they have, an uptick in production is certainly a possibility.
With this swap, the Avalanche have around $8.5MM in cap room, per CapFriendly with at least six players to sign with that money. However, that doesn’t account for Gabriel Landeskog‘s injury that will cause him to miss the entire 2023-24 campaign so GM Chris MacFarland has roughly $15.5MM still at his disposal over the coming weeks.
As for Nashville, this is an underwhelming return, to put it lightly, for someone that just a few years ago was one of the focal points of their attack. But the Predators are clearly embarking on at least a partial rebuild after jettisoning several veterans at the trade deadline and in a flat salary cap environment, getting full value for Johansen would have been next to impossible. The move now gives them a little over $19.5MM in cap room to work with, per CapFriendly, so if they want to be active in free agency to try to make it a quick retool, they’ll have the flexibility to do so. Alternatively, if they want to take on a bad contract or two to add more assets, that will also be a viable option for them.
Notably, this swap now encumbers two of Nashville’s three allowable retention slots through the 2024-25 campaign as one is also being used on Mattias Ekholm. These retentions plus the buyout to Kyle Turris give the Preds $6.25MM in dead cap for the upcoming season.
Galchenyuk’s inclusion in this trade is almost certainly just for contract-matching purposes. Even though he’s a pending free agent, he still counts as under contract until July 1st as do all pending free agents. For the time being, Nashville has 47 contracts on their books while Colorado sits at 45 so both franchises have some wiggle room in the coming weeks on that front.
Galchenyuk played in just 11 games with the Avs this past season, being held off the scoresheet in the process. The 2012 third-overall pick spend most of the year with AHL Colorado and was productive with them, picking up 42 points in as many games. He’ll almost certainly be heading for another two-way contract next season if he opts to stay in North America but after clearing waivers twice in the last two seasons, it’s possible that the 29-year-old looks to try his hand at playing overseas.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Flames Shopping Dan Vladar
In recent days, there have been several reports that key veterans are looking to leave the Flames. But those players might not be the only ones on the move as Pierre LeBrun, Michael Russo, and Eric Duhatschek of The Athletic report (subscription link) that Calgary is shopping goaltender Dan Vladar around the league.
The 25-year-old is coming off his second season as being the backup to Jacob Markstrom. His numbers dipped a bit this season as Calgary struggled, posting a 2.87 GAA with a .894 SV%, 12 points lower than his mark from 2021-22. That said, the drop-off in performance isn’t shocking with the Flames going from winning the Pacific Division a year ago to missing the playoffs this past season.
Vladar will be entering the first season of a two-year contract that he signed back in October, one that carries an AAV of $2.2MM. As far as backup goaltenders go, that’s still on the lower scale. However, with the Flames having Dustin Wolf in their system with a cap hit that’s less than $50K above the league minimum, making that goalie swap would free up some much-needed cap space; Calgary currently sits with just $1.25MM in room per CapFriendly with multiple roster spots to fill.
However, with Vladar’s contract being on the lower end for a second-stringer, it’s one that should carry some value around the league. LeBrun, Russo, and Duhatschek note that the Flames expect to at least get a second-round pick for the netminder which would be an improvement on the third-rounder they parted with to get him back in 2021.
The free agent market for goaltenders is relatively thin this summer which has resulted in some speculation surrounding netminders on the trade front. It appears that Vladar is now a part of that list, joining veterans Connor Hellebuyck, John Gibson, and Chris Driedger who have all come up in trade speculation in recent weeks. If a team is looking to get a jump start on shoring up their backup situation, there’s a good chance they’ll be calling up new GM Craig Conroy in the near future if they haven’t done so already.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Metropolitan Notes: Pesce, Penguins, Kuznetsov
Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce is one to keep an eye on this summer. With his recent change and contracts to comparable players given out recently, Cory Lavalette speculates in his latest piece for The Athletic (subscription link) that Pesce could be pushing for a max-term contract around a $6.5MM AAV. Carolina has ample cap room for 2024-25 but also needs to re-sign blueliner Brady Skjei, centers Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas (RFA), and winger Teuvo Teravainen. Doing all of that will be difficult and it wouldn’t be shocking if at least one has to go. Accordingly, if the Hurricanes could work an extension out with Skjei quickly and find Pesce’s price point too high for their liking, he could become a trade candidate in the coming weeks. In a free agent market that doesn’t exactly have a lot of impact right-shot defenders out there, many teams will be watching this situation closely.
More from the Metropolitan:
- Speaking to reporters yesterday including Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Penguins president Kyle Dubas indicated that he might be open to taking on a contract from a team needing to open up cap space this summer. Pittsburgh has around $20MM in cap room this summer per CapFriendly and while some of that will need to go toward re-signing or replacing goaltender Tristan Jarry, defenseman Brian Dumoulin, and winger Jason Zucker, they could have enough flexibility left to take on a pricey but capable player, giving them a boost as they look to get back to the playoffs.
- There has been some speculation that Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov might welcome a change of scenery. However, Russian player agent Alexei Dementiev told RB Sport in Russia that Kuznetsov’s discontent has been around a lack of offensive freedom. It’s worth noting that Dementiev is not Kuznetsov’s agent (that would be Newport’s Craig Oster) but he suggested that if new coach Spencer Carbery is willing to give the 31-year-old some more room to try to create offensively, the relationship between him and the team could be repaired. Kuznetsov is coming off a 55-point season but is only a year removed from a 78-point campaign. Getting him back in form would certainly go a long way toward trying to get Washington back into the postseason picture.
West Notes: Coyotes, Canucks Free Agents, Pearson, Zhigalov
The Coyotes enter next week’s draft loaded with picks, to put it lightly. The team currently has nine second-round selections and nine third-rounders over the next three years. Accordingly, Chris Johnston reports in TSN’s latest Insider Trading segment (video link) that Arizona is looking to deal from some of that future draft capital. Instead of being a dumping ground for bad contracts as they have been in recent years, it appears as if their focus has turned to trying to acquire better pieces who could be moved because the other team is forced into making a move to get into compliance. Accordingly, instead of receiving picks for taking on the player the other team wants to get rid of as they’ve done several times before, they’re flipping that plan around.
Elsewhere in the West:
- With Ethan Bear needing shoulder surgery, it is no longer a guarantee that the Canucks will tender the blueliner a qualifying offer next week, reports CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal (Twitter link). Bear is owed a $2.3MM qualifier but is set to miss at least the first couple of months of the season. With cap space still at somewhat of a premium for Vancouver, that might be too high of a price tag for their liking. Meanwhile, Dhaliwal adds that the Canucks are working on a new contract for pending UFA defenseman Noah Juulsen and have reached out with an offer to pending UFA rearguard Kyle Burroughs. As for goalie Collin Delia, the door isn’t closed on a return but the odds of him re-signing appear to be dropping.
- Also from Dhaliwal (Twitter link), he recently updated Tanner Pearson’s situation. The winger has now undergone seven surgeries as a result of his wrist injury and it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to return to the ice. The NHLPA indicated back in January that they were looking into how Pearson’s injury was handled and the continued uncertainty can’t be helping things. Pearson has one year left on his deal which carries a $3.25MM AAV. At this point, it looks like he’ll at least be starting next season on LTIR.
- Avalanche prospect Ivan Zhigalov is heading home next season as Yunost Minsk in Belarus announced that they’ve signed the netminder to a one-year contract. The 20-year-old was the final pick in the draft last June with the 225th selection and spent this past season with OHL Kingston, posting a save percentage of .889 with a 3.59 GAA in 45 games. Since Zhigalov was selected out of major junior, Colorado only holds his NHL rights through next season.
Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers
The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Edmonton.
As expected, the Oilers featured a high-powered offense this past season but goaltending concerns once again crept up at an inopportune time which played a role in their exit at the hands of the Golden Knights in the second round. GM Ken Holland has two years left with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl under contract which could represent the remaining length of their competitive window. However, while they would certainly love to add, their salary cap situation will see them needing to take away from their roster; this is a key element of their checklist this summer as a result.
Yamamoto Decision
We took a closer look at Yamamoto’s specific situation over the weekend which basically amounts to Edmonton having some less-than-desirable options when it comes to their 2017 first-round pick.
The 24-year-old made a big impact early in his career, picking up 26 points in 27 games after being a late-season recall in 2019-20 before stalling out briefly. Then, it looked as if he was back on track following a 20-goal campaign in 2021-22, earning himself a two-year, $6.2MM contract, but again, he stalled out this past season. At the moment, the Oilers have around $5MM to spend, per CapFriendly, with their pending restricted free agents set to cost considerably more than that. Someone has to go.
Yamamoto is young enough that his buyout would only cost one-third instead of the standard two-thirds. That means that if they went that route, they’d free up over $2.6MM for next season while adding $533K in dead cap for 2024-25. That could give them enough flexibility to re-sign their pending restricted free agents.
Alternatively, they could see if there’s a trade market for Yamamoto. There are a handful of teams that are willing to take on money this summer, perhaps one would be interested in a younger player with the hope of trying to rebuild his value. But those teams might prefer the incentives they’d receive for taking on a pricier veteran. If Edmonton is able to move him this way, they’ll save a bit more cap space but the return is almost certain to be underwhelming.
The buyout deadline is June 30th so there is a fixed timeline for a decision to be made on what they’re doing with Yamamoto unless they can find a way to keep him around. Assuming that doesn’t happen, they’ll be adding a cheap middle-six winger to their shopping list in the coming weeks.
Move Mid-Tier Money
It probably isn’t just Yamamoto that Holland will be making available around the league. In an effort to open up cap space but not take away from their core pieces, they will likely look to move at least one other middle-tier player. On the Oilers, those players would be winger Warren Foegele (one year, $2.75MM) plus defensemen Brett Kulak (three years, $2.75MM) and Cody Ceci (two years, $3.25MM).
It’s not that Edmonton should be particularly displeased with how any of these players performed this past season. However, on the back end, Phillip Broberg is ready for full-time duty and is on a contract less than $100K above the league minimum. Moving one of Ceci or Kulak would open up more ice time for the promising youngster while opening up more cap flexibility. Similarly, while the Oilers like Foegele’s energy in the bottom six, would they be better off moving him, bringing back someone like Nick Bjugstad for less, and pocketing the savings?
Of course, this particular concept isn’t unique to the Oilers; more than half the league will be trying to do exactly something like this over the next couple of weeks. As a result, they’re unlikely going to land a sizable return for any of these players. But a move like that is necessary to give themselves a chance at keeping their restricted free agents while trying to add a piece or two to give them a boost (or at least replace Yamamoto).
Re-Sign Bouchard
When the Oilers acquired Mattias Ekholm from Nashville at the trade deadline, the veteran defender really helped to shore up Edmonton’s back end. But the swap had another benefit as Evan Bouchard took a huge step forward. Partnered with the steady Ekholm, Bouchard’s confidence soared. And with power play specialist Tyson Barrie going the other way in the swap, the chance to load up the points was there for the taking.
Let’s just say he took advantage of it. Following the trade, Bouchard picked up an impressive 19 points in 21 games, heading into the playoffs on a high note. The 23-year-old then found another gear in the postseason, notching 17 points in a dozen games, leading all blueliners in playoff points despite only playing in two rounds. That’s one way to hit restricted free agency on a high note.
Bouchard’s entry-level contract is set to come to an end on July 1st. He won’t have arbitration eligibility but he’ll still be in line for a significant raise. He has two full NHL seasons under his belt, both of them generating at least 40 points which should push a two-year bridge deal past the $3MM mark. A one-year deal might get it a bit lower but would hand him arbitration eligibility the following summer. That doesn’t seem like a wise move for the Oilers. On the other hand, locking in long-term probably isn’t a wise move for Bouchard’s camp, nor is it an option that Edmonton can reasonably afford as things stand.
If you’re a fan of strategic offer sheets, this is a spot for one. If a team got Bouchard to sign a one-year, $4.29MM offer sheet, the compensation would only be a second-round pick. Edmonton would surely match but that price point would be problematic from a roster-building standpoint while, again, it gives him arbitration rights the following year. Is such a scenario likely? Probably not, especially in an era where offer sheets are few and far between. But if Holland thinks a team might try it just to mess up their cap structure, it would behoove him to try to get Bouchard’s two-year bridge pact locked in sooner than later.
Avoid Arbitration
The Oilers have indicated that they will be qualifying all but one of their restricted free agents. Among those that will be (or have been) tendered offers are forwards Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod. Both players had nice seasons, notching 11 goals in 57 games apiece. McLeod worked his way into a more prominent spot on the depth chart as the season went on while Kostin, who started in the minors after clearing waivers, was mostly on the fourth line, delivering strong results.
However, both players are eligible for salary arbitration for the first time. By tendering them their qualifiers, both McLeod and Kostin have the right to file for a hearing. That’s the scenario that Edmonton would like to avoid.
Would either player break the bank? Probably not but there are plenty of comparable players that would be in their favor which could help push their awards higher than Edmonton wants to pay. They also won’t have a walkaway option on either player as PuckPedia reported last week (Twitter link) that the threshold for that remains where it has been since 2019-20 at $4.539MM. Neither player is coming close to that; combined, they might not even get there.
But it’s certainly in Edmonton’s best interest to try to get these contracts done quickly. They’ll both be short-term agreements again to keep the cap hit down. Kostin’s should come in around $1.25MM or so while McLeod’s should be about $500K higher. Getting those locked in over running the risk of an award adding a few extra hundred thousand per player would help from a flexibility standpoint.
Perhaps more importantly, it would also give them some certainty about what they can do this summer. This whole column has been about internal focuses over external ones because of their cap situation. They want to add but to do that, they need to move out roster players, creating more holes in the process while needing to leave room to re-sign Bouchard, Kostin, and McLeod (and perhaps try to keep Bjugstad).
Getting as many of these done as possible before July 1st becomes quite important as a result so they know what they can, or can’t afford to do on the open market. While some teams will be doing their heavy lifting once free agency opens up, Edmonton should be hoping that most of theirs will already be done by then.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Atlantic Notes: Hoffman, Power, Gauthier
The Canadiens appear to be open to moving winger Mike Hoffman for no return, reports Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli. The 33-year-old signed with Montreal two years ago in the hopes of adding some offense and pop to their power play. However, his goal-per-game outputs the last two years were the lowest of his career while their success rate with the man advantage remains near the bottom of the league. Hoffman has one year left on his contract with a $4.5MM AAV and it seems that the Canadiens are simply hoping that someone will take a flyer on someone whose longer-term track record as a sniper has been strong. However, with so many other teams either wanting or needing to make a move like that, they may not be able to make a move like that. Seravalli adds that Montreal isn’t willing to buy him out.
More from the Atlantic Division:
- Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News examined some possible comparable contracts for defenseman Owen Power who is eligible to sign an extension in July. If the two sides want to work out a max-term contract, the deals for Florida blueliner Aaron Ekblad or Dallas rearguard Miro Heiskanen could be the range. Ekblad checks in at $7.5MM while Heiskanen’s deal, signed just last summer, is $8.45MM. Meanwhile, if the two sides want to do a bridge contract, Sabres GM Kevyn Adams doesn’t have to look very far as teammate Rasmus Dahlin’s current deal (three years, $6MM AAV) should stand as a rough barometer for what a short-term deal for Power would cost. Dahlin is also extension-eligible this summer and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Adams take a run at getting them both locked up early.
- Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch notes that the Senators are undecided about qualifying winger Julien Gauthier later this month. The 25-year-old was acquired late in the season as part of the Tyler Motte trade and held his own down the stretch, notching five points in 17 games. Owed a tender of just $840K, the hesitance would seem to revolve around his arbitration eligibility. While his career numbers wouldn’t land him a significant raise by any stretch, it could push his price tag higher than Ottawa is comfortable paying.
Five Key Stories: 6/12/23 – 6/18/23
The curtain has closed on the 2022-23 season with Vegas taking home its first Stanley Cup, beating Florida in five games. (The Panthers, as it turns out, had several key injuries to contend with, some of which will carry over into next season.) Away from the rink, there was plenty of notable news, recapped in our key stories.
Coaching Hires: The final two vacancies behind the bench have been filled. After going internal for their GM hire, Calgary did the same for the head coaching position, promoting assistant Ryan Huska to the top job, replacing Darryl Sutter. Huska is no stranger to the organization having been an assistant with them for five years after serving as their AHL head coach for the four previous years. This will be his first head coaching position in the NHL. The same can’t be said for the new coach of the Rangers with them hiring veteran Peter Laviolette as their new bench boss, taking over from Gerard Gallant. The 58-year-old spent the last three seasons with Washington before parting ways back in April. This will be his 22nd season behind the bench and he will crack the top ten for games coached in NHL history sometime in November.
Max-Term Deal For Bratt: After inking a pair of short-term deals after his entry-level contract expired, the Devils and winger Jesper Bratt put pen to paper on an eight-year, $63MM contract. The 24-year-old followed up his breakout 73-point campaign in 2021-22 with another 73-point effort this past season including a career-best 32 goals, solidifying himself as a key cog on New Jersey’s top line in the process. With one key RFA locked up, GM Tom Fitzgerald can turn his focus to his other one, winger Timo Meier. The team chose to file for club-elected salary arbitration, giving them a chance to submit an offer that’s $1.5MM below what would have been his $10MM qualifier. That will give both sides about six weeks to try to work out a long-term agreement before the hearings end in early August.
First Buyout Done: The buyout window opened up on Friday and Vancouver wasted little time making the first move, buying out the final four seasons of Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s contract. The move frees up more than $7MM in cap room for the Canucks this season but does put more than $20MM in dead cap on their books over the next eight years. That’s hardly the outcome then-GM Jim Benning was hoping for when he acquired the 31-year-old at the draft two years ago, moving the ninth-overall pick as part of the package. Meanwhile, as Arizona retained salary in the trade, they too have a dead cap charge over the next eight years totaling $2.8MM. Notably, one of their three retained salary slots will be encumbered for that entire stretch, running through the 2030-31 campaign. Ekman-Larsson becomes an unrestricted free agent but will not be able to sign with his new team until July 1st.
Senators Sold: After a very long and drawn-out process, the Senators will have a new owner as it was announced that Michael Andlauer was the successful bidder for the team with an offer of $950MM. The purchase is subject to the approval of the Board of Governors but that shouldn’t be an issue, especially with Andlauer being familiar to them as an alternate governor with Montreal. Andlauer will need to sell his minority stake in the Canadiens before the sale can be finalized. He won’t officially take over the franchise until these things occur so it’s unlikely he’ll be able to have any sort of impact regarding off-ice (or on-ice) personnel for a little while yet.
Speaking of on-ice personnel, the Senators also filed for club-elected arbitration on pending RFA Alex DeBrincat, allowing them to offer as low as 85% of his $9MM qualifying offer. However, unlike Meier, there’s a belief that DeBrincat would like to be moved and this filing won’t prevent that process from playing out.
Leaving Calgary? Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin is entering the final year of a six-year, $29.7MM contract that has been quite a bargain for Calgary. However, it appears that he’ll be following in the footsteps of former teammate Matthew Tkachuk as he has reportedly told the team that he does not want to sign a new deal with them. As a result, it’s expected that he’ll be traded. The 26-year-old has found his offensive touch the last two years, picking up 86 points in 182 games while logging nearly 22 minutes a night. He’ll be 27 when his new contract begins which means, wherever he goes, he’ll be in line for a max-term extension that’s worth at least a couple million more than his current $4.95MM AAV.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Panthers, Nichushkin, Canucks
While teams will be busy on July 1st trying to add free agents, some will also be trying to lock up their own players to early extensions. In the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests that the Panthers will be one trying to do the latter when it comes to defensemen Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling, believing they’ll take a run at trying to lock both of them up early. Montour had a breakout campaign this past season, picking up 73 points in 80 games. His previous career-best in points came in 2021-22 when he had 37. As for Forsling, he also set new benchmarks offensively across the board, picking up 41 points in 82 games while logging over 23 minutes a night. The two players will make just under $6.2MM combined next season; it might cost more than twice that much to keep them around after that.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- Colorado winger Valeri Nichushkin will return to the team next season, a team spokesman confirmed to Kyle Frederickson of The Denver Gazette. The 28-year-old left the Avalanche during their first-round series against Colorado for what the team called personal reasons following an incident where a severely intoxicated woman was found in his hotel room. He did not return during the rest of the series. Nichushkin is not under police investigation for the incident. After the season, GM Chris MacFarland indicated that he hoped that Nichushkin would be “a very important part of our team in the future” and with seven years remaining on his contract, they’ll be expecting him to be a core piece moving forward after picking up 99 points in 115 games over the last two seasons.
- Following their buyout of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Thomas Drance of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that the move could impact Vancouver’s upcoming first-round pick. In order for the Canucks to get through the tough years of the buyout (2025-26 and 2026-27), they’re going to need some value contracts on the books. Vancouver has the 11th-overall pick in the draft later this month and if they’re able to get someone that projects to be NHL-ready within two seasons, that would help ease the burden of the higher buyout cost. It also might make them disinclined to consider trading down or out for win-now help that won’t be around (or as affordable) two years from now.
Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs
The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Toronto.
It was another successful regular season for the Maple Leafs who finished in the bottom five in goals allowed while locking down the second seed in a tough Atlantic Division. They even exorcised their first-round playoff demon, knocking out Tampa Bay. However, that momentum was sapped quickly as Florida quickly dispatched them in the second round. Now, after a peculiar sequence of events that resulted in Brad Treliving taking over as GM, he’s now tasked with deciding whether to make a significant core shakeup or to keep tinkering with the secondary group. Early suggestions are that it could be the latter so their checklist is structured accordingly.
Coaching Hires
At this point, it seems like Sheldon Keefe is going to remain behind the bench following a recent report that he and Treliving are actively working on finding a replacement for assistant coach Spencer Carbery who left to take over behind the bench in Washington. Keefe wouldn’t be involved in those talks if he wasn’t sticking around. Based on that assumption, the only decision that Treliving needs to make around Keefe is whether he’s going to extend him now or have him enter next season on the final year of his contract.
Could that uncertainty help determine which way they go for Carbery’s replacement? They’ll be hiring for the top assistant role so will they look to another up-and-comer like Carbery was or a more experienced option that could step in if Treliving decides to make an in-season change? Either way, whoever they hire will need to have some power play pedigree with Carbery playing an important part in Toronto’s success with the man advantage over the last couple of seasons.
Additionally, Toronto needs to hire a new AHL staff after it was decided following their exit against Rochester in mid-May that head coach Greg Moore plus assistants A.J. MacLean and John Snowden. This isn’t something that necessarily has to be completed before July 1st but this is an organization that typically is active in minor league free agency. Having at least a head coach in place by then would help to avoid any uncertainty, especially with how quickly players sign within the first 24-48 hours after the market opens up.
Extension Talks
The Maple Leafs have two members of their ‘Core Four’ that are eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024. Accordingly, they’re eligible to sign contract extensions as of July 1st. Considering both Auston Matthews and William Nylander are set to land sizable raises, getting these done sooner than later would go a long way toward helping Treliving’s roster planning.
Matthews is coming off a quiet year by his standards but he still averaged well over a point per game while picking up 40 goals. Still not too shabby overall. Before that, the 25-year-old led the league in goals for two straight seasons, picking up the Hart Trophy for his efforts. He’s above average at the faceoff dot. He receives Selke votes annually as the best defensive forward. Basically, Matthews is a true number one center. There aren’t many at his level around the league and they get paid. At this point, the expectation is that he will set the new benchmark as the highest-paid player in the league, surpassing Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM). The questions are how much will he pass MacKinnon by and for how long?
Matthews didn’t sign a max-term agreement coming off his entry-level contract and it’s reasonable to think he could try a similar approach here, working out a medium-term agreement that might keep the AAV slightly lower while setting him up for what would likely be another raise down the road where he could once again try to set the new AAV record.
While some have suggested that July 1st represents a key deadline in discussions, that isn’t really the case. At that point, Matthews picks up a full no-move clause and becomes harder to trade. But if preliminary talks between his camp and Treliving have gone well and it seems like a matter of when and not if he signs an extension, Matthews having the NMC doesn’t really move the needle much. It might not get done the first day possible but this should get done this summer.
As for Nylander, the 27-year-old followed up a career-best 80 points in 2021-22 with an even better showing this past season, tallying 40 goals for the first time along with 47 assists, also a new personal best. He’s in the top 15 for points by a winger over the last three seasons, cementing himself as a true top-line winger in the process. Others in that top 15 that have signed recently are Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM), Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk ($9.5MM), and Columbus’ Johnny Gaudreau ($9.75MM). It’s safe to suggest that Nylander’s next contract should fall somewhere within that range, especially with the expectation that the cap will rise more next summer.
Can Toronto afford extensions for both players? That will be hard to do but it would also be very tough to part ways with one of those core pieces and maximize their value in return. With that in mind, it might be a situation where the Maple Leafs extend both and then try to figure out how to fit them in on the books for 2024-25 and beyond later on.
Add An Impact Defenseman
Despite the fact that Toronto was one of the stingier teams in the league in goals allowed, there’s a well-defined hole on the back end to try to fill. At the moment, the Maple Leafs have six blueliners under contract already for next season which isn’t bad. However, three of them have question marks.
Mark Giordano was solid for most of the season but started to wear down toward the end and into the playoffs. He’ll be 40 on opening night and is likely best utilized on the third pairing next season. Timothy Liljegren hasn’t spent a lot of time in the top four, nor has Conor Timmins who has all of 66 games under his belt, most of which came with limited ice time. It’s believed they’d like to bring Luke Schenn back but even he’s more of a role piece, not an impact one.
Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Jake McCabe are a decent core group in their top four but there is a definite need to add someone that can play 20 minutes a game and kill penalties. Basically, fill the role that Jake Muzzin was supposed to but with there being questions about his playing future, they can’t rely on hoping that he’s able to come back in prime form (if he’s able to come back at all). In a perfect world, that player would be a right-shot blueliner but those are always in short supply and high demand. Either way, a stable second-pairing defender would go a long way toward helping keep this team battling for the top of the division.
Goaltending Decisions
Last summer, former GM Kyle Dubas opted to make a pair of moves to overhaul Toronto’s goaltending. One worked well, the other not so much. Treliving now faces decisions on what to do with both of those netminders.
First, the good. Ilya Samsonov was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by Washington as they chose to go a different direction with Darcy Kuemper coming over in free agency. Samsonov wound up on a one-year, $1.8MM deal and became one of the better bargains in goal around the league. His market value now with a strong season under his belt starts to creep up into the $4.5MM to $5MM range. Giving him that price tag on a multi-year deal would shore up the goaltending position for a few seasons but it would also cut into Treliving’s spending options for this summer.
Then there’s Matt Murray. He had some good moments and some bad ones but most of all, he had plenty of times when he was injured. By the time he was cleared to return for the playoffs, he was relegated to third-string duty behind Joseph Woll. He has one year left on his contract with Toronto’s portion being $4.6785MM. Having him and Samsonov (likely at a similar price tag) on the books is an option they probably can’t afford, especially with a now waiver-eligible Woll waiting in the wings on a contract that’s below the league minimum for the next two years.
Murray’s contract is one that won’t be easy to offload; it would require an incentive and the Maple Leafs don’t exactly have a surplus of draft picks and prospects at their disposal to help make that happen. Alternatively, they can choose to buy out the final year of Murray’s deal. Doing that would save $4MM on the books for next season. However, it would also add $2MM in dead cap space for 2024-25 at a time when they’ll need every penny to afford the new deals for Matthews and Nylander. The other option would be to bury him in the minors, a move that would save $1.15MM in space for next season with no cap charges for 2024-25.
With Samsonov, the choice is fairly simple – how long of a contract do they want to do? For Murray, it’s a much different case, deciding which of three bad options is the least painful route to take.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Decision Time Approaches For Oilers With Kailer Yamamoto
It has been an eventful first few NHL seasons for Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto. He first made his mark in the NHL late in the 2019-20 campaign, averaging nearly a point per game in 27 contests and it looked like Edmonton had found a homegrown, cost-controlled offensive forward. However, the cost is getting higher and Yamamoto hasn’t been able to rediscover that level of production. With the team set to be tight to the salary cap again next season, GM Ken Holland is going to need to decide soon whether he can still afford to carry the 24-year-old on his roster.
After filing for arbitration last summer, Yamamoto and the Oilers agreed on a two-year, $6.2MM contract, a deal that was slightly backloaded, paying $3.2MM in salary next season. For someone in a middle-six role with some perceived upside still, it’s a price point that seemed quite reasonable.
However, things didn’t go as planned this past season. Yamamoto tried to play through some injuries before eventually being placed on LTIR in mid-January and in the end, his final numbers weren’t the strongest at 10 goals and 15 assists in 58 games, not the best bang for their buck. In the playoffs, Yamamoto managed just a single goal along with three helpers in their 12 contests despite still logging nearly 15 minutes per game which, again, fell below expectations.
As things stand, Edmonton enters this summer with around $5MM in cap room, per CapFriendly, but they have at least three forward spots to fill with that money. Two of those spots will go to Ryan McLeod and Klim Kostin, restricted free agents that they’d like to keep around and combined, they’ll cover more than half of that cap space. There’s also RFA defenseman Evan Bouchard to contend with who alone will take up a big chunk of that. There just isn’t any flexibility for them to work with.
More importantly, they don’t have the ability to make any sort of material improvement to their roster. That’s where Yamamoto potentially comes in. Clearing his cap charge off the roster opens up another spot to fill but gives them a bit more flexibility in how they choose to allocate those funds, allowing them to potentially shop for more of an impact player in free agency.
Of course, teams are well aware of Edmonton’s salary cap situation and Yamamoto’s struggles so it’s not as if the Oilers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to the idea of a trade. It’s possible that there could be teams willing to take a flyer on him – particularly one closer to the bottom of the standings hoping that a new team and bigger role could him going – but they’re not going to be offering up big assets to get him. Some might even ask for a sweetener to simply take the contract on, that’s how tight things are going to be cap-wise once again next season.
If a trade doesn’t materialize, then a buyout could be on the table. Yamamoto is young enough that the standard two-thirds cost doesn’t apply here; instead, the cost is one-third. As a result, his cap hit would only be $433K in 2023-24 while they’d add $533K in dead cap space for 2024-25. That would free up a little under $2.7MM in savings for GM Ken Holland to work with, albeit with another roster spot to fill. The buyout window is now open and lasts until June 30th. That then represents a potential deadline for Edmonton to decide the path they’re going to take with Yamamoto.
It’s possible that Holland decides to go a different route entirely, keeping Yamamoto and trying to move out other mid-tier salaries such as Brett Kulak (three years, $2.75MM), Warren Foegele (one year, $2.75MM), or Cody Ceci (two years, $3.25MM). Frankly, it’s not a case of one or the other; it’s quite possible that two or more from this group get shopped. However, none of those players have the cheaper buyout option available and in a market that isn’t likely to look kindly on mid-tier pieces on arguably above-market contracts, it’s hardly a guarantee they’ll be able to move any of those for the value they want either.
Is it a sure bet that Yamamoto’s days in Edmonton are numbered? Not at all. But if the Oilers want to try to add anyone of significance this summer, they’re going to need to free up some money and Yamamoto’s contract is probably the easiest to clear out. Not that long ago, Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi represented hopes for the future for the Oilers as some homegrown, cost-controllable talent. Fast forward to today and Puljujarvi is now in Carolina while Edmonton has already given up the rights to the player they got in return and it feels like there’s a good chance Yamamoto will soon be heading out the door for a similarly underwhelming return, if they’re able to get one at all.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.