Decision Time Approaches For Oilers With Kailer Yamamoto

It has been an eventful first few NHL seasons for Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto.  He first made his mark in the NHL late in the 2019-20 campaign, averaging nearly a point per game in 27 contests and it looked like Edmonton had found a homegrown, cost-controlled offensive forward.  However, the cost is getting higher and Yamamoto hasn’t been able to rediscover that level of production.  With the team set to be tight to the salary cap again next season, GM Ken Holland is going to need to decide soon whether he can still afford to carry the 24-year-old on his roster.

After filing for arbitration last summer, Yamamoto and the Oilers agreed on a two-year, $6.2MM contract, a deal that was slightly backloaded, paying $3.2MM in salary next season.  For someone in a middle-six role with some perceived upside still, it’s a price point that seemed quite reasonable.

However, things didn’t go as planned this past season.  Yamamoto tried to play through some injuries before eventually being placed on LTIR in mid-January and in the end, his final numbers weren’t the strongest at 10 goals and 15 assists in 58 games, not the best bang for their buck.  In the playoffs, Yamamoto managed just a single goal along with three helpers in their 12 contests despite still logging nearly 15 minutes per game which, again, fell below expectations.

As things stand, Edmonton enters this summer with around $5MM in cap room, per CapFriendly, but they have at least three forward spots to fill with that money.  Two of those spots will go to Ryan McLeod and Klim Kostin, restricted free agents that they’d like to keep around and combined, they’ll cover more than half of that cap space.  There’s also RFA defenseman Evan Bouchard to contend with who alone will take up a big chunk of that.  There just isn’t any flexibility for them to work with.

More importantly, they don’t have the ability to make any sort of material improvement to their roster.  That’s where Yamamoto potentially comes in.  Clearing his cap charge off the roster opens up another spot to fill but gives them a bit more flexibility in how they choose to allocate those funds, allowing them to potentially shop for more of an impact player in free agency.

Of course, teams are well aware of Edmonton’s salary cap situation and Yamamoto’s struggles so it’s not as if the Oilers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to the idea of a trade.  It’s possible that there could be teams willing to take a flyer on him – particularly one closer to the bottom of the standings hoping that a new team and bigger role could him going – but they’re not going to be offering up big assets to get him.  Some might even ask for a sweetener to simply take the contract on, that’s how tight things are going to be cap-wise once again next season.

If a trade doesn’t materialize, then a buyout could be on the table.  Yamamoto is young enough that the standard two-thirds cost doesn’t apply here; instead, the cost is one-third.  As a result, his cap hit would only be $433K in 2023-24 while they’d add $533K in dead cap space for 2024-25.  That would free up a little under $2.7MM in savings for GM Ken Holland to work with, albeit with another roster spot to fill.  The buyout window is now open and lasts until June 30th.  That then represents a potential deadline for Edmonton to decide the path they’re going to take with Yamamoto.

It’s possible that Holland decides to go a different route entirely, keeping Yamamoto and trying to move out other mid-tier salaries such as Brett Kulak (three years, $2.75MM), Warren Foegele (one year, $2.75MM), or Cody Ceci (two years, $3.25MM).  Frankly, it’s not a case of one or the other; it’s quite possible that two or more from this group get shopped.  However, none of those players have the cheaper buyout option available and in a market that isn’t likely to look kindly on mid-tier pieces on arguably above-market contracts, it’s hardly a guarantee they’ll be able to move any of those for the value they want either.

Is it a sure bet that Yamamoto’s days in Edmonton are numbered?  Not at all.  But if the Oilers want to try to add anyone of significance this summer, they’re going to need to free up some money and Yamamoto’s contract is probably the easiest to clear out.  Not that long ago, Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi represented hopes for the future for the Oilers as some homegrown, cost-controllable talent.  Fast forward to today and Puljujarvi is now in Carolina while Edmonton has already given up the rights to the player they got in return and it feels like there’s a good chance Yamamoto will soon be heading out the door for a similarly underwhelming return, if they’re able to get one at all.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.