West Notes: Blues Injuries, Kapanen, Celebrini, Hartman
The Blues announced (Twitter link) that winger Alexey Toropchenko is listed as day-to-day due to a lower-body injury. The 25-year-old was a quality secondary scorer last season, notching 14 goals along with 165 hits while playing in all 82 games, predominantly in a bottom-six role for St. Louis. Toropchenko has been deployed similarly through the first five contests of 2024-25 where he has an assist and a dozen hits in a little under 11 minutes a night.
Meanwhile, defenseman Nick Leddy, who missed Thursday’s game with a lower-body injury, has been ruled out for tonight’s contest against Carolina and is questionable to return on Tuesday versus Winnipeg. The veteran has logged over 22 minutes a night in his first four appearances of the season, good for third among Blues blueliners.
More from out West:
- Still with the Blues, Lou Korac of The Hockey News wonders if winger Kasperi Kapanen could be the odd man out up front when St. Louis gets their full complement of forwards back. The 28-year-old did well after being claimed off waivers in 2023 but struggled in his only full season with them, collecting 22 points in 73 games last year. Kapanen has been held off the scoresheet in four games so far this season. Still, the Blues opted to give him a one-year, $1MM contract in the summer, one that could be appealing if he lands on the waiver wire in the coming weeks as other players return.
- The Sharks are likely to be without center Macklin Celebrini for at least a couple more weeks, reports Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli. The first-overall pick back in June, Celebrini played in San Jose’s opener and fared well, picking up a goal and an assist. However, he hasn’t suited up since with what’s believed to be a nagging hip issue that the team is opting to try to let him fully recover from over having it flare up at times throughout the year. It appears that a full recovery is still at least a couple of weeks away.
- Wild center Ryan Hartman is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game against Columbus, relays Sarah McLellan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (Twitter link). The 30-year-old is dealing with an upper-body injury sustained on Tuesday against St. Louis. Hartman has two goals through four games so far this season while logging 15:21 per night.
Predators Recall Marc Del Gaizo
The Predators have added some extra depth on their back end heading into today’s game against Detroit. The team announced that they have recalled blueliner Marc Del Gaizo from AHL Milwaukee.
The 25-year-old made his NHL debut last season, getting into nine games with Nashville where he had three assists, 10 blocks, and 20 hits while averaging 16:28 per night. Del Gaizo spent most of the year in the minors with the Admirals, notching eight goals and 26 helpers in 60 contests.
With Spencer Stastney away from the team indefinitely for personal reasons, Del Gaizo was expected to be Nashville’s seventh defenseman heading into the season but the team elected to carry just the minimum of six. That allowed Del Gaizo to get into Milwaukee’s first two contests this season where he has been held off the scoresheet.
On the surface, it’s a bit strange and risky for a team to have only carried the minimum number of blueliners thus far, especially with the team projected to have nearly $5.5MM in cap space, per PuckPedia. However, $4MM of that space is in jeopardy with Ryan Johansen appealing his termination from Philadelphia. If that amount was restored by an arbitrator, then Nashville’s cap room would be more limited and the savings from Del Gaizo’s early demotion would become more important.
Now, at a minimum, Nashville has a bit of injury insurance for their back end with Del Gaizo on the roster. He’s on a one-year, two-way deal worth the minimum $775K salary in the NHL and is on track to become a Group Six unrestricted free agent next summer.
Avalanche Provide Updates On Kaapo Kahkonen And Valeri Nichushkin
While Colorado added some goalie depth a little more than a week ago with the claiming of Kaapo Kahkonen off waivers from Winnipeg, he wasn’t available to them as he went through the work visa process. However, the team announced (Twitter link) that he has joined the team and will take part in practice with them today, meaning he has cleared that process.
Goaltending has been an issue for the Avs early on this season with Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen combining to allow 24 goals on just 123 shots for a combined save percentage of .805. While this is certainly a case of a small sample size, it’s also an area of concern with Georgiev struggling at times in the second half of last season.
While Kahkonen is coming off somewhat of a rough year himself that saw him post a 3.64 GAA and a .898 SV% in 37 games between San Jose and New Jersey, he will at least give them another option with some NHL experience with Annunen having just 20 career appearances under his belt. Kahkonen will likely need a few practices before he’s game-ready with how long he had to sit but he should be a playable option for them before too long.
With Kahkonen joining the active roster, a corresponding move was needed to formally activate him as they were already at the maximum of 23 players. That was made with the team moving Devon Toews to injured reserve. His presence there might be short-lived, however, as Evan Rawal of The Denver Gazette notes (Twitter link) that Toews took part in practice for the Avs today.
Meanwhile, the team also revealed that winger Valeri Nichushkin has arrived in Denver and will begin to work out and skate on his own. He remains in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and isn’t eligible to return to NHL action until November 13th. However, the fact that he is coming to the city several weeks in advance to start working out suggests that he’s on track to return at that time.
For the time being, Nichushkin’s $6.125MM AAV is not counting against Colorado’s cap number. Assuming he gets the green light next month, he’ll come back on their books. That said, with Gabriel Landeskog and Tucker Poolman presently on LTIR, they will have enough cap flexibility to activate him without any issues at that time.
Canadiens Activate And Assign Jacob Perreault To AHL
While the Canadiens are dealing with some more injuries, one of their prospects has been cleared to return. Per the AHL’s Transactions Log, Montreal has assigned forward Jacob Perreault to AHL Laval, meaning that he has been activated from the injured, non-roster list.
The 22-year-old was a first-round pick by Anaheim back in 2020, going 31st overall but has seen his stock drop since then. Perreault made his NHL debut in the 2021-22 season, getting into one contest while putting up 37 points in 55 AHL appearances. However, his output dipped to 19 points in 48 games the following year.
After a similar first three-quarters of last season, Anaheim decided to move Perreault to Montreal in exchange for prospect Jan Mysak. The change of scenery didn’t do him much good as he managed just a goal and an assist in 13 games before being sidelined with the injury that kept him out of the lineup until now. The Canadiens attempted to send him down in late September but that was later reversed since injured players can’t be assigned to the minors.
Perreault is entering the final year of his entry-level contract and with how things have gone for him the last couple of years, he’s not guaranteed to land a qualifying offer next summer. Rather than focusing on trying to earn a recall in the coming months, his focus will likely be on locking down a full-time spot in Laval’s lineup and demonstrating that he’ll be worth keeping around.
Injury Updates: Dunn, Bjugstad, Steel, Eklund
Kraken defenseman Vince Dunn missed a game last week due to an upper-body injury and now he’s banged up again. Kate Shefte of the Seattle Times notes that the 27-year-old is listed as day-to-day after being injured in Friday’s victory over Philadelphia; he didn’t play in the final 23 minutes of the contest. Head coach Dan Bylsma didn’t have a timeline for his return, stating that Dunn is still waiting on further evaluation. Dunn is off to a solid start to his season with a goal and two assists in his first four appearances while logging a little under 19 minutes per night.
Other injury news from around the NHL:
- Utah HC center Nick Bjugstad is seven to ten days away from returning, per Belle Fraser of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link). The 32-year-old has yet to play this season due to an upper-body injury that kept him out at the start of training camp. He’s coming off one of his best seasons offensively after putting up 22 goals and 23 assists in 76 games with Arizona and was originally expected to miss all of October. Now, it appears he might be able to beat that by a game or two.
- Stars center Sam Steel was injured on his final shift on Thursday against Washington and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s contest versus Edmonton, mentions team radio analyst Bruce LeVine (Twitter link). The 26-year-old has a goal and an assist through his first five appearances this season. With Tyler Seguin already out, Dallas would need to bring up a forward if Steel can’t play. However, they can’t even afford a recall making $800K per PuckPedia which will limit their options.
- Sharks forward William Eklund missed tonight’s game due to an upper-body injury, relays Max Miller of The Hockey News. He had been listed as a game-time decision on Thursday but he managed two assists in the loss; head coach Ryan Warsofsky acknowledged postgame that the 22-year-old isn’t fully healthy. With that in mind, holding him out of a back-to-back certainly made sense.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2024-25 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Pacific Division, first up is the Ducks.
Anaheim Ducks
Current Cap Hit: $68,314.167 (below the $88MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Leo Carlsson (two years, $950K)
G Lukas Dostal (one year, $812.5K)
F Cutter Gauthier (two years, $950K)
D Tristan Luneau (three years, $865K)
F Mason McTavish (one year, $894K)
D Pavel Mintyukov (two years, $918K)
D Olen Zellweger (two years, $844K)
Potential Bonuses:
Carlsson: $3.225MM
Gauthier: $950K
Luneau: $80K
McTavish: $2.5MM
Mintyukov: $800K
Total: $7.555MM (exceeds the 7.5% cap by $955K; that amount counts as a direct charge against the salary cap)
Anaheim took things slow with Carlsson last season, limiting him to just 55 games. However, he played big minutes in those appearances and is seeing similar ice time early on this year. That gives him a good chance to meet $1MM of his ‘A’ bonuses while the rest are unlikely. We’ve seen the price tag for top young centers approach the $8MM mark post-entry-level and at this point, there’s little reason to think Carlsson shouldn’t be in that range as well. Gauthier is in his first full NHL season after turning pro late last year. Anaheim has high hopes for him as well although he’s obviously less proven at this point, making a second contract much harder to forecast. His bonuses are also of the ‘A’ variety and could be achievable depending on the role he carves out for himself.
McTavish is the other young middleman that GM Pat Verbeek will be looking to sign in the relatively near future. His first two full NHL seasons saw him just surpass the 40-point mark but being the third-overall selection, it’s fair to say that he’s still envisioned as being part of their long-term core. His numbers at this point come in a bit below Matthew Beniers (who signed for seven years and $50MM on an extension that begins next season). That would peg a long-term price tag at or just below $7MM (closer to $7.5MM on an eight-year agreement). Alternatively, if they go with a bridge contract, that type of deal would be closer to $4MM on a two-year pact, $4.5MM or so on a three-year agreement. He has $850K of ‘A’ bonuses in his deal and reasonably could max out on those with a strong showing this season.
On the back end, Mintyukov is someone they have high hopes for as another high draft pick. He had a solid rookie campaign and is logging heavy minutes early on this year. The market for some top blueliners coming off their entry-level deals who aren’t elite offensively has pushed past $8MM recently. It’s not unfathomable that Mintyukov gets to that level over the next two seasons. He has a good chance of reaching his ‘A’ bonuses based on his early-season usage.
Luneau missed almost all of last season which doesn’t help from a development perspective but he didn’t burn the first year of his deal either. For this year, the priority will be simply getting regular game reps which makes projecting his next deal all but impossible at this point. His bonuses are games-played based so staying healthy will allow him to reach at least most of those. As for Zellweger, he was dominant at the AHL level last year and held his own in limited minutes. A bridge agreement is likely for him and with what’s likely to be decent offensive numbers, it should push past at least $2MM.
Dostal has been thrown to the wolves at times but has put up more than respectable numbers over his first couple of NHL seasons. Is he their starter of the future though? That’s not a given so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him land a bridge deal. Given the contracts handed out recently to Yaroslav Askarov ($2MM AAV) and Jesper Wallstedt ($2.2MM AAV), Dostal’s contract should come in at a higher rate than that.
Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level
D Brian Dumoulin ($3.15MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($4MM, UFA)
F Brett Leason ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Isac Lundestrom ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Urho Vaakanainen ($1.1MM, RFA)
G James Reimer ($1MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($3.65MM, UFA)
Fabbri was picked up from Detroit in a cap-clearing move over the summer which wasn’t necessarily the worst outcome for him as he’ll play a bigger role with the Ducks than he otherwise would have. Even so, given his long injury history, his next deal should check in closer to the $2.75MM range even though he consistently averages over half a point per game when he’s in the lineup. Vatrano found another gear offensively last season with 37 goals, positioning himself nicely for the type of long-term deal that has eluded him thus far in his career. He’ll be in his age-31 year next season so a max-term pact is off the table but five or six years could be doable. If he can produce at a similar rate this year, that contract should push well past the $6MM mark.
McGinn is a serviceable fourth liner whose contract pays him more than that. That’s likely to be corrected next summer when his deal should come in around half of this amount. Lundestrom might be at the end of his rope with Anaheim if things don’t go well this year. He took a pay cut to avoid being non-tendered this summer and until he can establish himself as a consistent top-nine center, he’ll be hard-pressed to land a sizable increase. Leason, meanwhile, was non-tendered this summer to avoid arbitration eligibility but returned with a $250K raise in salary. Another double-digit goal performance this season would help his value and push it closer to the $1.5MM range but he remains a non-tender risk nonetheless.
Dumoulin was also brought in with Seattle needing to clear salary. His first year away from Pittsburgh wasn’t the greatest although he’ll at least benefit from likely a slightly bigger role in Anaheim. Even so, his market wasn’t strong last time out and probably isn’t going to be much better barring an improved performance this year. He could still land something around this price tag but a big raise is unlikely. Vaakanainen has been more of a depth defender at this point of his career and has already been scratched this season. He was non-tendered last summer to avoid arbitration rights and probably is heading for a similar outcome this time around, even if he’s worth something around this price point on the open market.
Reimer was picked up off waivers as injury insurance, sparing him from the third-string role he was heading for in Buffalo (at least for the time being). At 36, he’s going to be going year-to-year moving forward, likely in the lower-end backup or third-string role so this price point is where his next deal should land as well.
Signed Through 2025-26
D Cam Fowler ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($4MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Jackson LaCombe ($925K, RFA)
F Trevor Zegras ($5.75MM, RFA)
Zegras and the Ducks couldn’t work out a long-term deal, settling on this bridge agreement last year. The first season didn’t go well, to put it lightly as he battled injuries and ineffectiveness. At this point, it’s hard to project a significant increase for his next contract unless he’s able to get back to his previous 60-point form. Johnston is a fourth-line enforcer and with a lot of teams not carrying those, that limits his long-term value. Still, as long as there are at least some teams open to deploying one, another contract around this price should be doable.
Fowler’s value depends on the eye of the beholder. He’s certainly not a true number one defenseman but he has held that role for Anaheim for several years now and has done relatively well with it. Given the minutes he covers, his price tag is solid value relative to others in that situation. But if he was deployed in a more optimal spot (either second or third on the depth chart which is where he’d land on a lot of other teams), the contract moves somewhere between market value and a slight overpayment. Fowler will be 34 when his next deal starts and if he’s elsewhere in a lesser role at that time, it’s hard to see a raise coming his way. Instead, another multi-year deal around this price tag (in a higher cap environment) might be where he lands.
The fact that Gudas landed four years at this price point after primarily playing on the third pairing raised some eyebrows but it has worked so far for Anaheim. The new captain has moved into the top four and handled it relatively well. Having said that, he’ll be 36 when this deal expires so again, a raise isn’t overly likely. A two-year deal around this price point could be, however. LaCombe signed what’s frankly a below-market bridge contract for someone who averaged over 19 minutes a game the year before. However, he at least secured a one-way salary (which is notable given that he’s still waiver-exempt) while he’ll have arbitration rights next time out. If he can shoulder a similar workload for the next two years, tripling this price tag could be doable.
Signed Through 2026-27
G John Gibson ($6.4MM, UFA)
F Alex Killorn ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Ryan Strome ($5MM, UFA)
Killorn was a surprise signing in free agency last summer, both in terms of Anaheim getting him and the contract he received. The idea was to add a quality veteran who could play in the top six and work with the young forward group. But things didn’t go quite as planned in year one and, already 35, it’s hard to forecast a sharp improvement. And considering he’ll be entering his age-38 year in 2027-28, this might be his last contract. Strome hasn’t been able to match the output he had with the Rangers but now has five straight seasons of more than 40 points under his belt. Given the annual high demand for centers, he could land a similar contract if he was on the open market now so thus far, the Ducks are getting a fair return on his agreement.
It wasn’t that long ago that Gibson was viewed as one of the top goalies in the league with his contract looking like a bargain relative to other top-paid starters. But that has flipped in recent years. His save percentage in the past five seasons combined is just .900, a mark that’s below league average. Having someone below average in that mark making top-ten money isn’t ideal. It’s possible that a change of scenery could allow him to bounce back to a point but it’s unlikely he’d rebound to a level of play that would make this a team-friendly pact.
Utah HC Activates And Assigns Curtis Douglas To AHL
While Utah HC got some rough news on the injury front today, they also cleared one of their depth players to return. The Hockey News’ Tim Hiebert relays (Twitter link) that the team has activated Curtis Douglas from the injured, non-roster list and assigned him to AHL Tucson.
The 24-year-old spent last season exclusively with the Roadrunners, notching career bests in assists (16), points (21), and penalty minutes (148), finishing tied for fourth league-wide in the latter category. The 6’7 center has four professional seasons under his belt, also spending time with Ottawa and Toronto’s farm teams. The organization acquired him late in 2022 in exchange for defenseman Conor Timmins.
Douglas inked a two-year, two-way deal with Utah in early July after his entry-level contract came to an end. The deal carries a $150K minor league salary this season before jumping to $325K for the 2025-26 campaign. He has yet to receive an NHL recall but if Utah decides they need some extra grit on the fourth line, that could change in the coming months.
Five Key Stories: 10/7/24 – 10/13/24
The regular season is now underway with plenty of news off the ice as expected. We recap the most notable in our key stories.
Four For Ullmark: After originally planning to give Linus Ullmark some time to settle in before focusing on a contract extension, the Senators changed course, handing the netminder a four-year, $33MM deal that will begin next season. Perhaps not coincidentally, the $8.25MM AAV matches the one his former teammate Jeremy Swayman received from Boston not long before that. Ullmark, the 2022-23 Vezina Trophy winner, was acquired by Ottawa just before the draft in the hopes that landing him would help solve their long-standing struggles between the pipes. With this agreement in place, the net will be his for the foreseeable future.
Five For Daccord: Another netminder put pen to paper on a new deal this week as the Kraken inked Joey Daccord to a five-year, $25MM extension. The 28-year-old had his first full-time NHL season last year but it was a strong one. He quickly passed Philipp Grubauer on the depth chart and wound up getting into 50 games, posting a 2.46 GAA with a .916 SV%, numbers that were well above the league average. Even so, it’s a bit surprising to see this get done so quickly given his limited track record (just 69 career NHL appearances heading into the season) which suggests that Seattle felt Daccord was going to have another strong showing this year, one that would have only upped his asking price later on.
Shesterkin Says No: While Ullmark and Daccord signed new deals, another netminder turned one down. Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin reportedly declined an eight-year, $88MM extension, one that would have made him the highest-paid goalie in NHL history. However, the cap percentage at that price point would be lower than Price’s back when he signed in 2017 (13.21%) so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Shesterkin’s camp looking to best that while also looking to make him the highest-paid Ranger. The 28-year-old has been one of the top goalies since coming to the NHL in 2019-20, putting up a 2.43 GAA and a .921 SV% in his first 215 games, bettering those in postseason action. Accordingly, even if the two sides can’t agree on a record-breaking deal, there’s a good chance other teams will be willing to give one to him in free agency.
Lavoie’s Waiver Wire Adventures: It’s extremely rare for a player to be involved in a waiver-related transaction for six days in a row but that’s what happened with Raphael Lavoie. Edmonton waived him and he was claimed by Vegas the next day. However, he went back on the wire the following day with the Oilers taking him back. However, since another team placed a claim as well, he had to go back on waivers the next day, where Vegas once again put in a claim. Since the team that put in a claim when Edmonton got him back didn’t claim Lavoie this time around, the Golden Knights were able to send Lavoie to the minors after six days of waiver limbo.
Verhaeghe Sticks Around: It had been expected for a while that the Panthers would work out a long-term agreement with Carter Verhaeghe. It took until just after their first game to make it official but Florida signed the winger to an eight-year, $56MM extension. The 29-year-old has surpassed the 70-point mark in each of the last two seasons while finishing one point off the team lead in scoring during their run to the Stanley Cup last spring. While there is some risk in signing him through his age-38 season, a $7MM cap charge for a 70-point player is good value in this environment, especially with the salary cap projected to rise. As long as he remains around that level of production, Florida should get some value from this deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Greig, Blake, Dunn, Kolosov
Senators center Ridly Greig is dealing with an upper-body injury, relays Sportsnet’s Alex Adams (Twitter link). The 22-year-old locked down a regular spot in Ottawa’s lineup for most of last season, notching 13 goals and 13 assists in 72 games while logging nearly 15 minutes a night. Greig has been on the wing to start the year and missed a couple of shifts in Saturday’s game against Montreal, presumably due to the injury. He might not be out for long, however, as head coach Travis Green noted that Greig could still suit up on Monday against Los Angeles.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- The Hurricanes quietly papered winger Jackson Blake down to AHL Chicago on Saturday. However, his time there was short-lived as he has already been recalled, per the AHL’s transactions log. The move simply allowed them to bank a few thousand dollars in cap space with Carolina’s game against Tampa Bay postponed yesterday. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Hurricanes do this with some regularity with Blake, their lone waiver-exempt player, to try to open up a bit more spending flexibility.
- Kraken defenseman Vince Dunn is listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, relays team broadcaster Piper Shaw (Twitter link). He played into the final minute of Saturday’s game but the issue was enough to keep him out of tonight’s contest against Dallas. The 27-year-old has two points in his first two games this season after putting up 46 in 59 appearances in 2023-24.
- Late last month, Flyers prospect Alexei Kolosov ended his stalemate with the team, reporting to training camp after an agreement was reached that could allow for a potential return later on. That potential return might come sooner than later, however, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported earlier this week in his 32 Thoughts column that Philadelphia only has until the end of the month to convince him about their plans for him. Kolosov made it known over the summer that he wants to play in the KHL this season if he was going to be in the minors. While he’s with the Phantoms for now, he might not be there for too much longer based on Friedman’s report.
PHR Mailbag: Impact Youngsters, Record-Breaking Contract, Fowler, Goalies, Struggling Contender, Minors
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion about a Cam Fowler trade scenario, plenty of goalie talk, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.
wreckage: Do you expect Michkov or Bedard to be more impactful going forward? Bedard may have more skill, slightly. Michkov likely has a deeper team behind him at the moment. For the next three years… who has more impact in the NHL?
I’ll go with Connor Bedard for this one. Yes, Chicago has a weaker team on paper right now but Philadelphia is still rebuilding as well, despite them nearly making the playoffs last season. Both teams are probably on the outside looking in for at least the first two of those three years. The good news is that Matvei Michkov should get a lot of runway to play big minutes quickly like Bedard did last season but there’s only so much impact he can have on a non-playoff team.
Generally speaking, I’m going to lean toward a high-end center having more of an impact than a high-end winger on a year-to-year basis. Bedard will be a year further ahead in his development, entering what should be a very pricey second contract at a time when Chicago should be starting to take some steps forward in the Central. He’s going to be a big part of that. Not to say Michkov shouldn’t be an impactful piece by any stretch but I expect most players won’t be quite as impactful as Bedard should be in a few years.
riverrat55: Who is the 1st player with the upcoming increase in the Salary Cap to ask for $20MM?
Before tackling this, we need to figure out our target cap percentage that will cost $20MM. Teams, players and agents use this percentage as a direct comparable in negotiations. (For anyone wondering, 20% is the maximum, a rate we haven’t seen reached in quite some time. I remember some when the first cap came out but that’s about it.) Auston Matthews’ contract is 15.06% of the cap while Leon Draisaitl’s recent one checks in at 15.91%. Connor McDavid’s current one is 15.72% and I could see it eclipsing the 16% mark (which, on a $92MM-plus cap, puts the AAV in the $15MM range). For the sake of this hypothetical, let’s put a target cap percentage at 16.5%.
Let’s do some quick math here. $20MM divided by 16.5% = $121.212MM. Why does this matter? We need to project when the Upper Limit of the salary cap might get to this amount to see who will need a contract at this time.
This year, the cap is $88MM with a 5% capped increase next season and the year after that. That would make the ceiling $92.4MM in 2025-26 and $97.02MM in 2026-27 before the CBA expires. (The league did make this year’s cap a bit higher than the 5% increase so this isn’t a perfect scenario but close.) It wouldn’t shock me to see a bit more of a jump after that, assuming revenues stay on their current trajectory. Let’s say it’s a 10% boost post-CBA. That makes the cap $106.72MM in 2027-28. Let’s forecast 7% increases on average after that. In 2028-29, it would be $114.19MM and in 2029-30, it’d be $122.19MM. So, the 2029-30 season is the earliest we could see that price point.
Assuming that most core players will continue to sign max-term deals, that probably takes McDavid off the table. Cale Makar is up in 2027 so he’s off the table. Matthews’ deal expires in 2028 so he’s not going to get there either. The rest of the established elite will either be signed through that time or on the backswing of their careers in 2030.
With that in mind, my guess would be Bedard if I’m picking a current player. He’d have a shot at that in 2034 if he signs a max-term contract coming off his entry-level deal. If he goes shorter-term, he could get there sooner. We’re going to see a bigger jump in the cap coming sooner than later but even with that, it’s probably going to take a while to see someone reach $20MM unless there’s a material jump in the Upper Limit in the new CBA or some sort of other drastic change.
jminn: The Ducks want to trade Fowler. Kings could have a need, even though Cam is a lefty. Is there any chance Fowler moves up the freeway?
I’m going to be a little picky on the phrasing as it’s not necessarily that they’re looking to trade Fowler but rather that they’re willing to work with him on finding a new home. If he winds up staying there for most or all of the season, I think that’s an outcome they’re okay with.
But semantics aside, I don’t think this is a good fit for Los Angeles and not because of the handedness. Drew Doughty is expected to be back this season so while the Kings have around $10MM in cap room right now per PuckPedia, that money isn’t really spendable as they’ll need to get back to compliance before they can activate him. That’s easy to do with a replacement from the minors but Fowler has a $6.5MM cap hit. That means that barring further long-term injuries, the Kings would need to clear around $6.5MM off the books when the time comes to activate Doughty. That’s going to be extremely difficult to do midseason.
Would Fowler help the Kings? He certainly would. But this isn’t the right move for them to make at this time. Los Angeles needs to exhaust their internal options and see if Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence can take on bigger workloads. Then, if that doesn’t go well, they can re-assess but even then, it’d have to be for a much cheaper option than Fowler.
Frozenaquatic: There’s an interesting conversation happening right now about goalie salaries. Obviously, the argument for lower salaries is that aside from Hellebuyck, even top goalies play about 60 – 65 games (even though starting pitchers command high salaries despite only playing 30 out of 162 games). And how much does a goalie matter for a championship (or was Darcy Kuemper the Trent Dilfer of the NHL–just an anomaly in a rare system that usually favors Tom Bradys/Vasilevskys)?
Another argument is that they are only as good as the system–how much will Ullmark regress behind a much worse Sens system and would Swayman regress that same amount? They’re also mercurial–Shesterkin could sign an eight-year, $104MM contract and begin an eight-year slump.
The argument for higher salaries is that they may affect those games more than the other players. Great goalies sometimes open a championship window. They can represent a winning culture that other players want to play for.
Where do you fall on the goalie salary spectrum?
Second question is: Do you know if players take playing with goalies into consideration when they sign UFA contracts with new teams?
Third question: if you were in a legacy fantasy league, would you take Askarov, Cossa, or Wallstedt?
1) In general, I’d say goalies have felt the squeeze in recent years. With a lot of teams shifting closer to a platoon, there has certainly been a concerted effort to try to spend less at that position. It also should be noted that the number of true higher-end starters has gone down which is part of the reason teams are looking for goalies to be closer to splitting the duties.
What has been interesting to me lately is that teams with a legitimate number one have largely managed to get that player locked up on what looks like a team-friendly agreement. Part of me wonders if the fact a lot of teams are looking to cut costs between the pipes actually has deflated the marketability for some of those players. While supply is low, it’s getting offset by perceived lower demand.
That’s what made the Jeremy Swayman saga particularly interesting as here’s a player trying to reach that upper tier (some would say he’s there already while others might want to see him play more first) that seemingly held out for top dollar. It seems like Igor Shesterkin is hoping to do the same as well although, again, if he got to the open market, how many teams would realistically go after him? How many would have the cap space and of those, how many would pay up that much for a goalie? I’m intrigued to see how that one’s going to play out.
2) I can’t say this for certain either way but it would surprise me if more than a handful of skaters would put too much weight on who the goalie is when signing in free agency. I’d say that’s too position-specific. Free agents probably assess rosters on a more macro level – does the player want to go to a contender? Does he want to go to a team that is thinner at a specific position in the hopes of securing a bigger role (and ideally a bigger contract)? A UFA goalie would pay attention to who the incumbent player is for obvious reasons but I doubt a lot of skaters put a high emphasis on who the goalies are specifically when they’re pondering teams.
3) Long-term, it’s hard to pick against Yaroslav Askarov. There’s a reason why he was considered by some as the best goalie outside North America a couple of years ago. He’s now on a team that could be positioning itself to contend in a few years. If it’s a long-term play you’d be going for, he’s it. If you need someone who might get you more points in the short term, it’s Jesper Wallstedt. Like Askarov, he’ll see some NHL action this season but he’s on a team that I expect will be more competitive. Next season, he should be a full-timer on a team that has some cap space to make some noise next summer.