Archives for May 2024

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus several others who have already been eliminated.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

After a tough 2022-23 season, there was supposed to be some reason for optimism for the Blue Jackets this year.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen picked up a pair of impactful defensemen while some younger players were expected to take the next step.  Mike Babcock was brought in as head coach to help shepherd the team back towards competitiveness at a minimum.

By now, you know what happened next.  Babcock was gone before ever coaching a game, resulting in Pascal Vincent, a first-time bench boss, taking over behind the bench.  The team then battled a litany of injuries throughout the year while there was some inconsistency in the performances from their young core, resulting in just a seven-point improvement while once again finishing last in the Metropolitan Division.  Eventually, Kekalainen was ousted with a lengthy search for his replacement underway.  That headlines a busy checklist for Columbus this summer.

Hire A GM, Make Coaching Decision: Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  Before the team can do any sort of heavy lifting, they need to hire Kekalainen’s replacement.  While team president John Davidson is handling the day-to-day operations for the time being, they can’t run with an interim option for too much longer.

The belief is that they’ve cast a very wide net as they look for a replacement with experience being a key characteristic they’re looking for.  However, that doesn’t have to come in the form of NHL GM experience but rather someone who has a lot of time working in an NHL front office.

Once they get that hire in place, the first decision that will need to be made is on the coaching front.  Vincent has one year left on his contract; is he going to be their coach of the future and get an extension?  Will the new GM want to make their own hire?  Or will they opt to stick with the status quo and keep Vincent in place in his walk year, allowing for extra time for evaluation with perhaps a reshaped roster?  Knowing this is the time of year when most coaching searches are completed, it’s important to get this file closed quickly which means a general manager needs to be hired sooner than later.

Upgrade In Goal: One of the ideas behind Kekalainen’s additions of Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson last summer was that an upgraded back end would go a long way toward helping stabilize things between the pipes.  Elvis Merzlikins was coming off a disastrous year while Daniil Tarasov – now the full-time backup after Joonas Korpisalo was moved at the trade deadline – didn’t have much NHL experience so there was certainly some logic in the idea that a better defense corps would benefit the goaltenders.

Despite the good intentions, the results weren’t much better.  Yes, Merzlikins improved his save percentage by 31 points this year compared to last.  However, he still checked in at .897, well below average for one of the higher-paid starters in the league.  Meanwhile, Tarasov improved his rate by 16 points to .908 but he still has just 45 career NHL appearances under his belt.  He could be part of the future plans for them but he’s not ready for the number one role.

However, Merzlikins’ performance over the past couple of years has shown that he’s not a viable option for the number one role either, at least not with Columbus.  Accordingly, it would be quite difficult to run it back with this tandem and expect any sort of material improvement in the standings.

The good news for Columbus is that it looks like this could be a summer where there is more activity than normal on the goalie transaction front with some notable names in play.  While it’s unreasonable to think they’ll be in the mix for the likes of Jacob Markstrom and possibly Juuse Saros, there should be a domino effect once the swaps begin, potentially giving them an opportunity to try another starter.

They’re not in a situation where they’ll be able to get good value for Merzlikins.  Frankly, they might not be able to get any value for him.  But if they want to try to take a step forward next season, it may very well be in the best interest of both sides to have a new starter in place working with Tarasov when the puck drops in October.

Defensive Decisions: After making some big moves last summer on the back end, whoever takes over as GM will have some decisions to make and could look to shake things up again.

Is Provorov going to be part of their long-term plans?  The change of scenery didn’t kickstart his game from an offensive standpoint although he had a decent year overall.  But he’s entering the final year of his contract with a $6.75MM AAV (the Blue Jackets are only responsible for $4.75MM of that) and will likely be looking for a long-term agreement around that price tag.  If he’s not willing to sign or the team isn’t ready to make that type of commitment, it might make sense to see what is available for him this summer over an in-season swap closer to the trade deadline.

Another decision will have to be made on the RFA front with Jake Bean.  A couple of years ago, it looked like he was going to be a key part of their future plans after putting up 25 points in 2021-22 while logging over 20 minutes a night.  However, since then, he has struggled to stay healthy and when he has played, he has had a much more limited role, predominantly on the third pairing.  The 25-year-old has one year of club control remaining but to use it, the Blue Jackets would have to tender him a $2.9MM qualifying offer and give him arbitration rights.  Would that money be better utilized elsewhere?  They’ll have to decide by the end of June.

Whoever takes over as GM will also likely pick up the efforts to move Adam Boqvist.  Brought over as part of the Seth Jones trade, the 23-year-old has shown flashes of being an above-average producer from the blueline but struggles with injuries and defensive zone issues have limited him thus far.  He played in just 35 games this season which isn’t ideal considering he’s carrying a $2MM cap charge.  With David Jiricek expected to make a full-time jump to the NHL next season and Nick Blankenburg no longer waiver-exempt, something has to give roster-wise.  Moving Boqvist would help ease the roster crunch.

On top of those, trying to upgrade the back end should also be on the to-do list if the new GM comes in and elects to keep pushing forward with this core.  It was a busy offseason last year for defensive activity and this one could be as well.

Bridge Or Long-Term Deals: The Blue Jackets have several young forwards in line for their second contracts this summer – centers Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson along with winger Kirill Marchenko.  While a long-term contract for any of them would likely be an overpayment at the beginning, it could also be a bargain later on if they pan out as expected.  With a young group, balancing things out with some long-term agreements among the short-term bridge ones makes sense from a salary cap perspective.

Sillinger had a nice bounce-back season after a rough sophomore campaign.  The 20-year-old set new career bests in assists (19) and points (32) while making strides as a two-way player.  If they think he’s poised to take a big step forward offensively next season, they could take a look at trying to work out a longer-term deal although a bridge agreement feels like the more probable outcome.

The same can be said for Johnson whose second full professional season had some struggles.  After putting up 40 points in his rookie year, he notched just six goals and ten assists in 42 games this year with a shoulder injury ending his campaign early.  Had he been able to take a step forward, he’d have been an easy candidate for a long-term pact but now, both sides need more time to evaluate things.

As for Marchenko, he very quietly led the Blue Jackets in goals this season with 23, his second straight 20-goal campaign after notching 21 in his rookie year.  Consistent scoring threats are hard to come by, particularly on a Columbus team that has underwhelmed offensively; they’ve only been better than 25th in goals once over the last five seasons.  A longer-term agreement shouldn’t break the bank with some comparables around the league checking in around the $5MM-plus range.  If that’s something Marchenko is amenable to, that’s a deal that could work out well for both sides.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.