Archives for May 2024

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what’s next for the Blackhawks, Mitch Marner trade suggestions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.  The final one from our recent call-out for questions will run this weekend.

Unclemike1526: The Hawks have two firsts and three seconds. Who are the best goalie prospects in this year’s field? Commesso played well in the playoffs against a good team. I have no faith in Stauber or Soderblom. Gajan is far away. Who can they draft to solidify the position? 2nd round is where goalies seem to end up going and their own 2nd-round-pick should be a high one. As for Davidson, he says he wants to start adding talent to win. Where do you think he adds? Thanks.

I’ll start with the standard caveat that I’m not much of a scout and when it comes to goalies, I’m even worse so take this with the requisite grain of salt.  I don’t think it’s a particularly strong field, to be honest.  Last year, we saw talk of a goalie possibly going in the first round, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case this time around.  Carter George, Mikhail Yegorov, and Eemil Vini are the more prominent netminders of this class.  When a question like this came out last year, I also added a darkhorse candidate so I’ll pick Ryerson Leenders for that spot.

You noted that the Blackhawks have a couple of quality goalie prospects already in Drew Commesso and Adam Gajan.  Both have NHL potential and were drafted in the top 50 in their respective drafts, going 46th and 35th respectively.  We also know that there’s a long development curve for netminders.  So is it really in Chicago’s best interest to go after a goalie with their top second-rounder (34th overall) when that goalie might not be ready until 2029 or 2030?  (Not to mention that picking one of those goalies would be a reach.)  Wouldn’t it be better to go with a skater who will probably be a top-20 to top-25 option on their board?  I’m not against them picking a goalie but I wouldn’t consider it until the third round at the earliest with the two promising ones they already have.

As for where GM Kyle Davidson is looking to add, I don’t think there’s really a positional target, so to speak.  Instead, I think it’s going to targeting specific veterans who will be fits in the room and raise the floor of this group.  If it’s a top-four defenseman, great.  If it’s three bottom-six guys that take some of the defensive pressure off the younger forwards, that would work too.  Having said that, if Davidson got his best-case addition, I think it’d be a top-six winger that’s signed for a couple of years to give Connor Bedard an upgraded running mate.  Basically, another Taylor Hall type of pickup, just one that hopefully won’t miss most of next season due to injury.

based: It looks like the Leafs and Marner both possibly may want to move on. How about to Philly? A team trading for him I assume would need a contract extension in place.

I’m not so sure there’s a mutual desire to move on between Toronto and Mitch Marner.  While management was non-committal about bringing the core back, Marner said that a goal of his was a contract extension from the Maple Leafs this summer.  I think if he got his way, he’d stick around.

But let’s talk about the fit in Philadelphia.  A lot would depend on where the Flyers feel they are in their rebuilding process.  I’m not convinced the season they just had will lead to them accelerating their timeline (and that’s probably a good thing long-term).  So is making a move for Marner the right thing to do?  I don’t think it’d be the worst idea if the price was right but this seems a bit early in the process for them to make that type of move.

Another challenge here is, as you noted, the need for a contract extension.  Trading for Marner as a straight-up rental makes no sense for them so a new deal would need to be in place.  I expect his will be a record-setting contract for a winger and I think the sweet spot is going to be around eight years and $100MM if you’re going to get him to sign now.  (That matches the cap percentage that Artemi Panarin got from the Rangers on the open market by design.)  Does Marner make sense on that contract in that market at this time?  That’d be a tough sell.

There’s also the matter of finding a viable trade return.  Even if we concede your premise that the Maple Leafs want to move on from Marner, they’re not just giving him away.  This is a legitimate top-line winger so the asking price would be high.  I expect Travis Konecny would be in there as part of a package which begs the question that if GM Daniel Briere wants to pony up for a winger, why not just lock up Konecny long-term at a lesser rate and keep the other trade assets in the fold?  If I’m choosing between that or acquiring Marner, I’m going with the former.

Jaysen: Your thoughts on a Marner for Saros trade, straight up? Potentially as a sign-and-trade for both?

Or if the above proposal is a no-go, maybe Marner to Chicago or to Utah? And yes, let’s pretend that Marner waives…

Finally, Toronto must make changes to the roster. I’m interested in what would be your most mind-blowing, no way, they did what scenario.

Thank you.

Starting with your trade proposal, I like it for Nashville, assuming it’s a double sign-and-trade.  Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future and if they can get a legitimate top-line winger for a starting goalie, that’s a whole lot better of a return than most starters fetch.

I’m less enthusiastic from Toronto’s point of view, however.  Juuse Saros will be entering his age-30 season when his next deal starts and has had the heaviest workload in terms of games played for the last three years.  That’s a bit concerning when you’re going to hand him a deal comparable to Connor Hellebuyck’s $8.5MM per season.  Yes, he’d certainly represent an upgrade but that’s a lot of offense to sacrifice to get it and a big amount to give up to keep him around.  My Plan A would be to aim a tier lower for a goalie upgrade where it wouldn’t take Marner going the other way even if you wind up moving Marner in a separate move later on.

As for Chicago and Utah being possible landing spots, assuming he waives his trade protection, they’re interesting ideas.  I have the same concern for the Blackhawks as I do for Philadelphia in that it might be early but if they think he’s the running mate for Connor Bedard, then I’d say it’s justifiable even if it is early.  Finding a win-now package going Toronto’s way would be tough, however.  Utah, meanwhile, should be exiting its rebuild and likely will be looking for a talent upgrade.  They have several quality young players they could couple with a win-now player (Nick Schmaltz stands out as an option) that could make for a compelling offer.

When I first saw the last part of this question, my initial thought was if Utah won the lottery, they dealt the first-overall pick for Auston Matthews, sending Matthews to the former Arizona team just after they left his hometown state.  But that’s not happening and San Jose certainly isn’t making that move with where they are.

But let’s stick with the premise.  If I’m picking the ‘no way’ type of move, you have to go big so I’d say it’s moving Matthews while making the decision to pivot to using William Nylander full-time down the middle.  That would lessen the need to get a win-now center coming the other way as they’d have him and John Tavares as their one-two options for next season.  As part of the return, the Leafs would get a young center with top-six potential that ideally would slide into that role the following year (or soon after if Tavares is re-signed at a lower rate).  But the key part of the package would be a legitimate number one defenseman.

If I were to ask who is the least likely of their core forwards to be moved, I think it’d be Matthews.  But in this pie-in-the-sky scenario, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander all refuse to waive their trade protection, resulting in them pivoting to Matthews and using him to fill a key need now, add a piece for the future, and bank on Nylander adapting to and thriving in the number one role.  That’d be a shocker to me.

Breakaway: I heard that Patrik Laine is selling his place in Columbus. He could be buying a new place but is most likely looking for a trade. Who do you think would be interested, what would the trade package look like and would Columbus need to retain some salary?

Notwithstanding the report about selling his house, it makes sense for both sides to have at least some interest in a change of scenery, assuming he’s cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.  Columbus hasn’t got much bang for their buck on his contract and as a result, Laine appears to be heading toward a sizable pay cut if he repeats the performance of the last two years.  In situations like this, a move makes a lot of sense for both sides…in theory, at least.

Here’s the problem for Columbus.  Laine’s trade value is probably at an all-time low right now.  Yes, there’s a longer-term track record of some success but he has 28 goals in the past two years combined, spanning just 73 games due to injuries and his entrance to the Assistance Program.  He also has a cap hit of $8.7MM and is owed $9.1MM in actual money for each of the two remaining years on his contract.  He also controls his destiny to a point with a ten-team no-trade list.

There are three options for them to consider, none of which are particularly ideal.  They can give him away for next to nothing simply to clear up the cap space and save on salary.  They can retain half the contract and receive a potentially halfway-decent return, maybe a reasonable draft pick (I’m thinking a second-rounder as I type this) and a middle-six forward.  Or, they can try to find another pricey short-term contract that isn’t going well for a team and try to make a swap with the rest of the package being determined by the difference in caliber of the player.  This last one is more theoretical as I don’t see a great fit at first glance.

If the Blue Jackets decide to just cut bait, Chicago makes a lot of sense; it would be a move just like the Hall trade from last summer.  Here’s a top-six player with a bit of upside on paper and a legitimate shooter to work with Bedard.  If things go well, he’s the type of player I could see them extending.  But again, like Hall, the return would be negligible; they’d have to have a plan in place to utilize the cost savings.

If they want to retain money and make more of a hockey trade, Seattle stands out at first glance.  GM Ron Francis might prefer the shorter-term option over a free agent acquisition and if Laine is healthy, he’d be an intriguing fit in a Kraken lineup that needs more firepower.  To make the money work, someone like Brian Dumoulin could go the other way with the draft pick or equivalent prospect.  I also like Utah’s fit here.  They have money to spend and at 26, Laine is a young enough veteran to fit in with their group.  The matching money part isn’t as easy but probably isn’t needed; a deal based on draft and prospect capital should work for them and we know they have plenty of both.

Whoever Columbus hires as GM will have options when it comes to trading Laine if they decide to go that route.  But whichever way they go, the return will pale in comparison to what they gave up to get him in the first place.

Read more