Archives for March 2024

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the quiet deadline for the Red Wings, a look at the offseason head coaching market, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gowings2008: Why has Yzerman stood pat in terms of trades and call-ups? Follow up, do you think Yzerman sees the team’s window as Seider and Raymond’s primes and is using Larkin’s prime to give the younger prospects time to mature?

I was surprised to see Detroit largely stand pat at the trade deadline.  I didn’t have them making a big splash but with the cap space they have, I thought they’d get in on the cheaper buys.  The fact there were some low-cost additions for teams that were simply willing to take on the full freight of the contract only made me more surprised as that was the type of move for them to make.

It came out after the deadline that Yzerman was hesitant to move their top picks and prospects.  I completely agree with that decision.  But flipping a late-round pick for an upgrade up front was something they could have done.  From a recall perspective, teams are capped at four non-emergency recalls from here to the end of the season.  They’ve already used three (Jonatan Berggren after being papered down while Austin Czarnik and Simon Edvinsson were converted to regular recalls once emergency conditions on their promotions ended).  They can’t do much more on that front.

I think Yzerman sees this team as being a couple of years away from contention which lines up with your follow-up question.  I suspect he’s hoping Dylan Larkin is still in his prime at that time but the hope is that their prospects should be starting to become key contributors at that time.  Those players will be on their entry-level deals, giving them ample cap space to take a big swing on the open market to upgrade as well.

rule78.1: What do the Red Wings do with the following UFA/RFA forwards this coming offseason now that weaknesses with them have been exposed?

Kane
Raymond
Perron
Veleno

I fully expect them to take a run at re-signing Patrick Kane.  39 points in 39 games is quite impressive and frankly, better than I was expecting.  There is going to be some risk here, however, with the track record of players coming back from his surgery not being the strongest.  He was willing to take a one-year deal this time but that shouldn’t be the case in the summer.  Anything over two years might make Yzerman hesitant.  I think Perron is in a similar situation.  At the right price point and term (again, probably a maximum of two years), I think they’d be interested in re-signing him.  But right now, I think he’s likelier to move on with the team turning to the open market to replace him.

As for the RFAs, it’s a bit easier to forecast.  Raymond is getting signed, it’s only a matter of bridge or long-term.  I think Moritz Seider gets the long-term deal while Raymond gets a two-year bridge around Perron’s current price point of $4.75MM.   Joe Veleno didn’t have much leverage last summer which is why he settled for just $825K.  He hasn’t shown enough for a long-term contract just yet but another one-year agreement feels likely for him.  With arbitration rights, he could more than double that AAV.  He has been a bit underwhelming for a first-round pick but there’s still room for him in Detroit’s long-term core.

Unclemike1526: I hate to keep harping on the Hawks’ goaltending but they have to do something next year, right? Now that Mrazek is here for two more years and that’s cool, can we count on him to have another injury-free year? I think we’ve all seen that Soderblom isn’t any kind of answer. Is Commesso going to be ready next year? Gajan is the future but at least two years away. Basse might not even sign here. They need to get some kind of bridge guy to the young guys and the future. I mean if Mrazek goes down next year without that guy they might as well phone in the games. A decent vet on a one-year deal who can hold down the fort just in case. Right? Thanks as always.

Do they have to do something?  Probably not.  Mrazek is there and if they’re not ready to pull the plug on Arvid Soderblom, they could very well run with those two next season.  They could then look to a veteran third-stringer to pair with Drew Commesso in the minors but that squeezes out Jaxson Stauber.  If they don’t want to have Soderblom (or Stauber) in the backup role next year, then Soderblom pairs with Commesso and yes, then a veteran on a one-year deal makes a whole lot of sense.  Frankly, a two-year deal would be more than defensible given Mrazek’s injury history; expecting Mrazek to be healthy would be risky.

Speaking of Commesso, I think you need to adjust your expectations for NHL readiness.  Over the years, I’ve read plenty of interviews with team executives who say they’d like a young goalie to have between 100 and 150 AHL games before moving up; there’s a reason they typically are promoted a lot slower than skaters do.  Commesso is currently at 30 games where he has been decent but not elite.  I don’t think he’ll be ready next season and unless he’s flat-out dominating the league for an extended stretch next year, I don’t think he’ll be ready for 2025-26 either.  That isn’t to say they couldn’t give him a few starts here and there when injuries strike on the NHL tandem but in terms of being a regular, he has a long way to go.

I’ll quickly comment on Adam Gajan as well who you have as at least two years away.  I’d add several years to that timeline.  He’s not having a great final season in the USHL which doesn’t help but most goalies play at least three years in college (like Commesso did).  Goalies basically never make the jump from the NCAA to the NHL as, again, teams want lots of AHL action before promoting them full-time.  Accordingly, I’d peg Gajan as five years away from being an NHL regular, possibly closer to six.  There’s reason for optimism for the future in goal but patience will be required.

Gmm8811: There are currently four interim coaches behind the benches. In my opinion, none of them will be hired next season as the full-time bench boss. Odds of Quenneville being reinstated? Thoughts on new hires? Recycle former coaches or new blood coming aboard?

First, let’s list the four interim coaches – Jim Hiller (Los Angeles), Travis Green (New Jersey), Jacques Martin (Ottawa), and Drew Bannister (St. Louis).  We know for sure that Martin won’t be back and I’d be surprised if Hiller was.  I think there’s a chance that Green sticks around if the Devils do well down the stretch and sneak into that final playoff spot.  As for Bannister, I think he will stay on in the full-time role.  The Blues aren’t going to be contenders over the next few years so a developmental coach like Bannister might be the right fit.  They’ve played well enough since he took over that I could see him getting a three-year deal.

I expect someone will take a real run at Joel Quenneville this offseason.  By then, he’ll have been out of the game for nearly three years now.  Will that be long enough for him to be reinstated?  I wouldn’t call it a lock but if I had to handicap it, maybe 80/20 that he is.

As for the vacancies, it’ll be the usual mixture of some first-time hires and others getting a second (or third) opportunity.  For first-time hires, Jon Gruden and Jay Leach I think will be strong candidates.  Gruden has been speculatively linked to Ottawa’s opening for a while now and Leach had some interest last year.  For the recycled options as you termed it, I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Berube lands another opportunity.  Dean Evason likely will get some inquiries as well and I wonder about Jay Woodcroft.  I know the fact Edmonton took off after they let him go doesn’t help but he helped turn things around when he took over and is still a young coach.  The chance to get a newer blood type of coach with some NHL experience could be appealing to some teams so I think he’ll have some interviews as well.

Schwa: Any predictions on where the top college free agents end up and who has the best chance of contributing early on? Is there a different format or process in this free agency than that of the summer FA? Thanks!

In terms of predicting where they end up, it’s a giant dart throw.  This isn’t a situation where some teams have more cap space than others which would be a difference-maker in discussions.  All teams are capped at offering entry-level deals so there will be little to no difference between them.  For some players, it’ll be about playing close to home.  For others, they’ll be targeting a team willing to burn a year of the contract now.  Others will look at depth charts and try to find a team with thin depth to give them a better chance of being recalled.  Meanwhile, some others will look for teams with better track records of prospect development.  With each player having a different priority, it’s really hard to forecast who the top contenders will be.

As for who has the best chance of contributing early, I think defenseman Dylan Anhorn could be a candidate to burn a year right away and see a handful of games down the stretch.  Winger Collin Graf will be highly sought after and should start his entry-level pact right away.  Note that these players – or any undrafted college free agent signing – will only be eligible to play until the playoffs.

There isn’t necessarily a different process to college free agency (teams can speak to agents/family advisors to work out a contract) but how it plays out is a bit different.  Unlike July 1st, not all players will be looking to sign right away as once they sign, they can’t play anymore in college.  Accordingly, players will wait until their campaign comes to an end.  For some, that has already happened while for others, that might not occur until closer to mid-April.  As a result, the flow of players is more gradual instead of the typical free-for-all we see on July 1st.

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