Free Agent Profile: Sam Gagner
The curious case of Sam Gagner began in his rookie season, when he scored a career-high in points. Yes, you read that right and yes that is very unusual. The nine-year NHL veteran, who turns only 27 next month, finds his career in a tailspin, despite being in the prime of his career. The sixth overall pick in the 2007 NHL Draft broke into the league at 18 and excelled, but it has been all downhill from there.
The Edmonton Oilers were excited to select Gagner early in the first round of the ’07 draft. He was coming off a dominant season with the London Knights of the OHL, when he scored 118 points in 53 games and, along with Patrick Kane and Sergei Kostitsyn, led the Knights to a league-leading 104 regular season points. The Oilers were even more excited when Gagner made the team in his first season and went on to score 49 points, including another career-high of 36 assists. The young play maker continued to play well in Edmonton, scoring over 40 points in each of the next five seasons, and then putting up 38 points in 48 games in the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season.
Gagner signed a three-year, $14.4MM contract the following off-season, and with it came a steep decline in production. In his final season in Edmonton, Gagner managed to score only 37 points and was a -29. The Oilers, disappointed in the drop-off under the new contract, traded Gagner to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Teddy Purcell. That same day, Gagner was dealt again, along with B.J. Crombeen, to the Arizona Coyotes for a 6th round draft pick in a salary dump by Tampa. Gagner’s production remained the same in Arizona, as he scored 41 points, but struggled defensively yet again at -28. He was traded again last summer, this time to the Philadelphia Flyers, in exchange for Nicklas Grossman and the contract of Chris Pronger. The wheels fell off completely in Philadelphia, as Gagner played in only 53 games, recording just eight goals and eight assists for 16 points, 22 points less than the 38 he had in five less games only three years prior.
Gagner now finds himself in a precarious situation. Last season was a dismal effort offensively, and the options for a player that is not defensively inclined looking to find a role with those numbers will be few. He must find a team where he would be a good fit in the top nine and that can help him get his scoring back on track. Another down year could signal the end of a once promising career.
Potential Suitors
Gagner remains unsigned, but there have been teams that have considered the reclamation project. Gagner’s best chance to re-boot his career would be to find a team with thin forward depth, where he could work his way into a top six role, or a talented offensive team where he could fill a hole and boost his statistics. Vancouver and Ottawa have kicked the tires on the forward, while a team like Chicago or San Jose could try to squeeze him in under the cap as well.
Expected Contract
Despite his recent struggles, his offensive potential (and a thin market) has him ranked within our Top 50 NHL Free Agents list, at #46. With many of those names off of the list following the free agent frenzy on July 1st and over the past few days, Gagner’s market may be gaining steam as he is likely one of the best dozen players that remain unsigned. We have predicted that Gagner will sign a one-year, $1MM deal with the Blackhawks. Some of the younger, rebuilding teams may be interested in a multi-year deal for Gagner, but his best option would be to sign a one-year “show me” deal with a good fit and try to redeem his numbers before hitting the open market again next year.
Minor Transactions: 7/4/16
Here is where we’ll keep track of today’s minor transactions:
- The Toronto Marlies announced the signing of Marc-Andre Cliche to an AHL contract. A 2005 second round pick of the New York Rangers, Cliche has only played in 151 NHL games and totaled only 14 points. He did not make an NHL appearance during the 2015-2016 season after spending the prior two seasons as a full-time member of the Colorado Avalanche. The former Manchester Monarchs captain was back in the AHL last year, splitting the season between the San Antonio Rampage and the Bridgeport Sound Tigers. He’ll return to minors again this year, now playing for the Maple Leaf’s affiliate. In a separate move, the team also announced that they have brought back winger Rich Clune on a one year, AHL deal. The 29 year old put up 24 points in 49 games with the Marlies last season while adding four assists in 19 NHL contests.
- Jared Staal is set to join the Edinburgh Capitals of the Elite Ice Hockey League in the United Kingdom, the team announced today. The fourth Staal brother was a 2nd round pick of the Phoenix Coyotes in 2008, but to date has played in only two NHL games, with his brothers’ Carolina Hurricanes. He has spent the majority of his pro career with the Hurricane’s AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers, but spent all of last season with the ECHL’s South Carolina Stingrays. This will be his first season playing in the EIHL, and he will likely be expected to help the Capitals of Edinburgh, Scotland take the next step, as they have finished in last place two of the past three years.
- The Vancouver Canucks have hired Doug Jarvis as an assistant coach. Jarvis spent the last six years with the Boston Bruins. He is now set to join the Canucks after being hired by former Bruins Assistant GM and current Vancouver General Manager Jim Benning. In addition to the Bruins and now Canucks, Jarvis has also spent time as an assistant coach with the Minnesota North Stars/Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadiens, and was also head coach of the Canadiens’ AHL affiliate, the Hamilton Bulldogs. He is a six-time Stanley Cup champion, with two as a coach and four as a player, as well as a past Selke and Masterton winner.
- Boston has signed D Alex Grant to a one year, two-way deal, according to General Fanager. Grant spent most of last season with Arizona’s AHL affiliate in Springfield, scoring 11 goals and 31 assists in 69 games. He also got into five games with the Coyotes, being held pointless. Grant will earn $600K at the NHL level and $225K in the AHL.
Free Agent Frenzy: Day 3 Activity
Day three of free agency was much quieter than the fireworks we saw on July 1.
Free Agent Signings:
RD Matt Tennyson (CAR) – One year, $675K (link)
RW Adam Cracknell (DAL) – One year, $600K (link)
LW Taylor Beck (EDM) – One year, undisclosed (link)
LW Mike Liambas (NSH) – One year, $575K (link)
Entry-Level Contracts:
RW Patrik Laine (WIN) – Three years, $10.725MM (link)
Extensions:
RW Reilly Smith (FLA) – Five years, $25MM (link)
With 34 of the 50 Top UFAs already signed, the rest of the summer should consist mostly of RFA contracts and trades. We’ll be right here to keep you updated throughout. Make sure to check out Roster Resource for the project depth charts of your favorite team, and bookmark PHR for easy visits!
Maple Leafs Sign Roman Polak
July 3: General Fanager has confirmation on the financials; Polak will recieve $2.25MM from the Maple Leafs on his one-year deal.
July 2: The Toronto Maple Leafs are bringing back a familiar face in D Roman Polak as the team announced Saturday that they have signed him to a one year contract. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Polak spent most of last season with Toronto before being dealt to San Jose in the days leading up to the trade deadline. Between the Leafs and Sharks, he played in 79 games last year, scoring a goal and 15 assists, while playing an average of 19:09 per game. Polak also played in 24 postseason games with San Jose, being held pointless while seeing his average ice time drop to 15:46.
In his career, Polak has played in 559 games with St. Louis, Toronto, and San Jose. He has 19 goals and 85 assists in that span, with 439 PIMS.
Polak will bring some physicality to Toronto’s bottom defense pairing next season. Last season, he had a career high 303 hits and 146 blocks. He was rated 36th on PHR’s Top 50 UFA list.
RFAs Still Waiting On Contracts
After a busy few days watching free agent contracts be handed out like candy, and millions of dollars spent like pennies, there are still some key restricted free agents out there negotiating their next contracts. Vincent Trocheck, Filip Forsberg and Seth Jones have already received deals eclipsing $25MM, locking them in long before they even get a sniff of unrestricted free agency. Here are a few more names still waiting on deals:
- Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan of the Flames still are without deals, though reports indicate they are both open to signing long-term with Calgary and want to play with each other for “the next ten years”. The pair combined for 57 goals and 141 points last season, completed before either turned 23.
- The Ducks’ Hampus Lindholm is still without a contract, as discussed earlier today. The 22-year old is considered one of the best young defensemen in the league, and the team would like to lock him up to a similar term as partner Sami Vatanen, who received a four-year deal last month.
- After re-signing Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy to what seem like team-friendly deals, GM Steve Yzerman still has work to do in the form of Nikita Kucherov, the team’s young sniper. Reports are that the two sides are working on a deal, but Yzerman has to be careful as the team is inching closer and closer to the salary cap with Kucherov and three other players still to sign.
- After acquiring Taylor Hall in a blockbuster deal, the Devils still have another star winger to get under contract in the form of Kyle Palmieri. The 25-year old broke out last season with 30 goals, and will be looking to cash in on his sudden performance. The Devils have over $17MM in cap space even after bringing back Devante Smith-Pelly and signing Ben Lovejoy and Vernon Fiddler.
For the entire list of RFA players, and the projected depth charts for each team head to Roster Resource and check out their detailed info.
Oilers Sign Taylor Beck To One-Year Deal
According to a team release, the Edmonton Oilers have signed free agent forward Taylor Beck to a one-year deal. Details regarding the financial terms were not released. Beck played most of last season with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the American Hockey League, tallying 33 points in 46 games.
Beck, 25, has played 87 career NHL games between the Predators and Islanders, including 62 in 2014-15. The winger scored 8 goals and 16 points that season while seeing under 12 minutes of ice-time a night.
A prolific scoring threat in junior, Beck put up 267 points in his four seasons with the Guelph Storm, and has carried it over to the AHL level. He has 165 points in 243 career games in the minor circuit, and will head to camp trying to crack the bottom half of the Edmonton roster.
Snapshots: Russell, Vesey, Forsling
After rumors swirled the past two days indicating that the Maple Leafs had offered a contract to free agent defenseman Kris Russell, agent Allain Roy took to Twitter to set the record straight: “Reports of Kris Russell turning down any offer from the Maple Leafs are false. Simply rumors…” The former member of the Dallas Stars is still available as of Sunday evening, and ranked 12th on our Top 50 UFA list last month. Here is some more news from around the league:
- As our own Brett Barrett outlined this morning, Harvard grad Jimmy Vesey is set to wait until August 15th when he will become an unrestricted free agent. Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe opines that both Pittsburgh and Chicago will also make offers to the 23-year old should he make it that far. He has stated that he wants to stay in his native north east region.
- Scott Powers of The Athletic tells us that Blackhawks’ prospect Gustav Forsling is headed back to Sweden for the 2016-17 season if he doesn’t make the NHL club out of camp. After signing an ELC in March, Forsling was thought to have a decent shot at making the team this year, but with recent signings Brian Campbell and Michal Rozsival coming into the fold (or, in Rozsival’s case back into), it seems much less probable.
Panthers Notes: MacKenzie, Reimer, Huberdeau
Today marked another long-term extension for the Panthers, as the team locked up 25-year old Reilly Smith for another five seasons. It’s the latest in a series of big moves the Panthers have done as they build their team to compete for the short and long term. In a series of tweets, play-by-play announcer and Fox Sports Florida reporter Steve Goldstein gives us some insight into the rest of their summer:
- Assistant captain Derek MacKenzie is currently an unrestricted free agent but seems destined to head back to Florida at some point. Goldstein describes it as a formality, and expects him to be around for the next few seasons. MacKenzie is regarded highly in the Panther dressing room, and provides some toughness to their bottom six.
- Newly signed goaltender James Reimer may play in as many as 35 games this season even without an injury to starter Roberto Luongo. With Luongo’s advanced age, the team will look to protect him for a long playoff run. Reimer signed for five seasons and is expected to take the reins at some point down the road.
- GM Tom Rowe expects to get a long-term extension done at some point with forward Jonathan Huberdeau. The former third overall pick represents the last of the young group Florida has built, and due to some savvy cap management, the team will have money for him going forward. Huberdeau scored 20 goals and tied for third on the team in points last season with 59.
Jets Agree To Three-Year ELC With Patrik Laine
After selecting Finnish forward Patrik Laine second overall in this summer’s NHL Entry Draft, the Winnipeg Jets have inked him to a three-year entry level contract, according to a team release. TSN’s Rick Ralph adds that the deal will pay Laine an AAV of $3.575MM, though will only carry the maximum $925K cap hit. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet breaks it down even further, telling us that the contract carries the maximum $850K Schedule A bonus, and $1.8MM of Schedule B bonuses.
After scoring 17 goals and 33 points among professional hockey players in Finland’s Elite League, Laine will make his journey across the pond to the NHL this season, as he’s expected to break camp with the team as an 18 year old. Laine has been compared to some of the game’s elite goal scoring wingers in the past, and has a chance to immediately impact a Winnipeg Jets team who scored just 215 times last season.
Laine is the second of the top three picks to sign his entry-level deal, as Pierre-Luc Dubois has already agreed to terms with the Columbus Blue Jackets for $3.425MM per season. This leaves Auston Matthews left to sign his deal with the Maple Leafs, which should come in at a similar number, as $3.775 is the maximum allowable for an entry-level contract.
The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract
The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.
With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.
The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.
Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season. Take Loui Eriksson for instance:
2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM
While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.
For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros? As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.
It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof. Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.
This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.
Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements. Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus. He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA. The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.
Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation. Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.
Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.