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Snapshots: Kane, Russell, Staal, Parise

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There’s little doubt that Buffalo GM Tim Murray has shown a penchant for making bold decisions during his tenure with the Sabres.  As Bucky Gleason of the Buffalo News writes, Murray may be headed for another of those decisions when it comes to winger Evander Kane.

Kane pled not guilty earlier this week to charges of misdemeanor criminal trespass, non-criminal disorderly conduct, and four counts of non-criminal harassment.  He was also previously charged with assault although that suit was later dropped.  However, Gleason notes that Kane seems to have a penchant for finding trouble which has to be a concern for the Sabres.

Murray gave up a considerable amount to Winnipeg back in February of 2015, including defenseman Tyler Myers plus wingers Drew Stafford and Joel Armia as part of a package that also landed Buffalo blueliner Zach Bogosian.  However, given the off-ice concerns and the fact that Kane has not yet become the top liner the team was hoping he would, it’s unlikely that a Kane trade would yield anywhere near the type of value Buffalo gave up to get him just 18 months ago.

Even if Murray can’t get top value, Gleason suggests that he should still consider trading him for a lesser return under the concept of addition by subtraction.  Doing so would certainly be a bold move but the Buffalo GM hasn’t hesitated to make those types of deals yet so there’s little reason to think he’d do so now.

More from around the league:

  • Defenseman Kris Russell remains the most prominent of the remaining unrestricted free agents. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Russell’s camp is still waiting for some interested teams to free up some cap space.  It’s believed that Russell is still seeking a multi-year deal around the $4MM per year range but that may be a challenge at this stage of free agency.  Regardless, it appears the 29 year old blueliner is content to play the waiting game for now.  Dreger doesn’t mention any specific suitors but we took a look earlier at some teams that could potentially have a spot for Russell on their back end.
  • In an interview with KFAN 100.3 in Minnesota (and transcribed by Chris Nichols of Today’s Slapshot), Minnesota head coach Bruce Boudreau expects newly-signed center Eric Staal to play between Zach Parise and Charlie Coyle to start next season. Boudreau also noted that Parise told him that he is fully healthy after missing the postseason with a back injury.  Parise is slated to suit up for Team USA at next month’s World Cup of Hockey.

Minor Transactions: 8/4/16

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Here is where we’ll keep tabs on today’s minor transactions:

  • New Jersey UFA defenceman Brandon Burlon has signed a one year deal with Arizona’s AHL team in Tuscon, the Coyotes announced. Burlon spent the last five years with the Devils’ AHL affiliate in Albany, picking up 94 points in 292 games.
  • Former NHL defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron was among three players released by Zurich of the NLA, the Swiss team announced (link in German). Bergeron last played in the NHL in 2012-13 with Carolina and Tampa Bay and has played in 490 career NHL contests with seven different teams.  He was predominantly used as a power play specialist towards the end of his time in North America thanks to having one of the strongest point shots in the league at the time.
  • Pittsburgh has invited forward C.J. Yakimowicz to their upcoming rookie tournament in September, writes Seth Lakso of the Citizens Voice. Yakimowicz was originally drafted by St. Louis back in 2014 but did not sign with the team by this past June.  After re-entering the draft and not being selected, he is now an unrestricted free agent.
  • The Bruins announced that they have hired former NHL’ers Trent Whitfield and Jay Leach as assistant coaches for their AHL affiliate in Providence.  Whitfield played in 194 NHL games over his career while Leach suited up in 70.  Both coaches have prior AHL coaching experience, Whitfield with Portland in 2014-15 and Leach with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton last year.

Central Notes: Landeskog, Sobotka, Wild

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Concussions are a touchy subject in the NHL.  In the older days of the league, players who ‘had their bell rung’ often returned to the game as if nothing had happened.  That mindset has slowly started to change but in a piece penned for The Players’ Tribune, Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog argues that more change is still needed.

Landeskog recalled the concussion that he suffered early in the 2012-13 season and that he felt the pressure to stay the game, something that was exacerbated by the fact he had recently been named the new captain of the team.  Even the following day with the symptoms clearly present, he admitted that he was telling his teammates and the trainer that he was alright even though he clearly wasn’t.

Landeskog notes that there is a culture change in the dressing rooms around the league as more and more players are becoming aware of the significance of concussions.  However, he suggests that associating the common term ‘warrior mentality’ with players who try to play through their head trauma sends the wrong message throughout the sport that those who take the proper time to recover are weak.  There’s no doubt that there is more understanding about the effects of concussions but there is still further progress to be made.

More from the Central Division:

  • Six weeks ago, it was reported that the Blues were expected to bring center Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL but as of yet, no official announcement has been made. Louis GM Doug Armstrong told ESPN’s Craig Custance that they’re in the process of finalizing the paperwork to make it official.  Sobotka last played in the NHL in 2013-14, picking up 33 points in 61 games.  He will play on a one year, $2.725MM contract that was awarded via arbitration in the 2014 offseason.
  • Wild majority owner Craig Leipold has started the process of buying out minority owner Matthew Hulsizer, reports Michael Russo of the Minnesota Star-Tribune. Hulzizer owns 27% of the Wild and purchasing his stake will take Leipold’s ownership percentage to 95% in a process that will take place over the next few months.  The timing may seem strange but Leipold is exercising an option in the original purchase agreement from February 2015 to call back the shares.  Leipold notes that Hulsizer had a key role in Minnesota’s increased use of analytics both in terms of scouting as well as their on-ice play.

The Gagner Effect: Likely Contracts For Remaining Free Agents

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With the Columbus Blue Jackets signing Sam Gagner to a one-year, $650K contract earlier this week, it seems that a new bar has been set for the unrestricted free agents still available on the market. Gagner, though he struggled last season, is still young and has a history of strong point production, yet settled for a contract that is over $4MM less than he was paid per year in his previous deal. While it is unlikley (and in most cases impossible) for any of those still looking for a contract to accept that kind of pay cut, it seems that bargain deals are the only deals being offered in a deep, but stagnant August market. While the destinations of the following players are still up in the air, their values have changed significantly since July 1st. Here is an updated prediction of what some of our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents and other notable players will sign for before the puck drops on the 2016-17 season:

Kris Russell (#12) – 2 years, $4.5MM

Russell remains our top-ranked unsigned free agent so far, and considering the hype that he was given prior to free agency as one of the best available defenseman in a shallow market for blue line help, it is shocking to many around the hockey world that he remains unsigned. The shock is much worse for Russell himself, who was reportedly looking to sign a long-term deal for $5MM+ per season. At this point, a deal like that seems far from the realm of possibility. Unfortunately for Russell, is playing style does not make him a darling of the analytics movement, which could be a primary reason for the surprising lack of interest. That, and his ineffectiveness with the Dallas Stars after coming over from the Calgary Flames at the Trade Deadline. Our original prediction for Russell was a four-year, $18MM contract. Given the situation he is in, it seems that both the term and value are likely to be cut in half.

Jiri Hudler (#18) – 1 year, $1.75MM

Hudler is the other player who’s availability is very surprising and difficult to figure out. Just one year removed from a 30-goal season, Hudler has shown that he is an offensive force and has found success playing on both wings and with many different types of line mates. Scoring and versatility, even at 32, generally earns a player a contract pretty quickly. That has not been the case for Hudler. A down season and concerns over size and toughness seem to be keeping him from getting the contract that he wanted and believed he deserved. Hudler is coming off a contract that carried a cap hit of $4MM per year, and we predicted that he would sign a deal for exactly that for four years. NHL teams are clearly concerned about paying for 2014-15 production and getting 2015-16 numbers, so term is likely a sticking point and a cheap, “show me” deal seems to be the most likely outcome. With similar stats to Teddy Purcell last year, expect Hudler to settle for a similar deal to the one-year, $1.6MM contract given to Purcell by the Los Angeles Kings.

Radim Vrbata (#27) – 1 year, $1.5MM

Similar to Hudler, Vrbata is likely asking for payment based on his 2014-15 numbers and getting offers based on his 2015-16 numbers. The veteran winger was excellent in the first year of a two-year $10MM deal with the Vancouver Canucks, scoring 63 points, but the second year did not turn out so well, as he scored less than half that amount. 27 points for a 35-year-old does not scream “hot commodity”, but even given his age and drop-off, we still predicted that Vrbata would secure a one-year, $3.7MM deal. The possibility of that value is long gone. Vrbata’s name seems to keep popping up, so it seems more likely that he’ll find a home in the NHL, rather than head overseas or retire, but it is likely to be more in the $1MM neighborhood.

Kyle Quincey (#44) – 1 year, $750K

If Sam Gagner got $650K after an awful season last year, Quincey’s prospects for anything over $1MM seem bleak given his dismal number in 2015-16 as well. We acknowledged in our prediction that Quincey severely under-performed the past two seasons in Detroit with a cap hit of $4.25MM, but still felt that a puck moving defenseman would earn at least $1.5MM on a one-year deal. Well, it’s now August and Quincey is not even the best defenseman on the market. Luke Schenn just got two years and only $2.5MM and he is better and younger than Quincey. Quincey will have to take a very cheap deal to play this season.

Jhonas Enroth (#50) – 1 year, $900K

It seemed like Enroth was set to sign with the Maple Leafs last week, but nothing ever came of it. It could be that the exact price was being nitpicked, as the Leafs are currently very close the salary cap ceiling. Unfortunately, the other team in the market for a backup goalie is San Jose, and they too are in a cap crunch. Enroth earned $1.25MM with the Kings last season and was excellent and thus was surely hoping for a raise. The market simply didn’t develop for the net minder, and now it is a bidding war between two teams with little to bid. Enroth could get lucky and sign a two-year deal for expansion draft purposes or simply to keep his cap hit low, but at this point a contract over $1MM seems unlikely.

Antoine Vermette (NR) – 1 year, $2MM

The newest addition to the free agent frenzy (or lack thereof) is Vermette, who was bought out by the Arizona Coyotes recently. Prior to the buyout, Vermette was put through waivers, and no team wanted any part of his 3.75MM cap hit. Using that as a starting point, it is safe to say that Vermette will not be getting 3.75MM from any team, nor will he likely get within even a million dollars of that mark. However, with 38 points in 76 games last season, Vermette is still producing at a similar rate as he has for the past five years or so, which made the buyout so surprising. The Coyotes likely wanted roster space for younger players, and the buyout was more about that than a commentary on Vermette’s ability. This late in free agency, most teams who would be interested in Vermette likely lack the cap flexibility to give him fair market value. He should still make a decent amount of money in 2016-17, but it will likely be a better bargain for his new destination.

James Wisniewski (NR) – 1 year, $850K

The off-season has not been kind to players coming off of bad seasons, and nothing is worse than missing an entire season with an injury. Such is the case with Wisniewski, who was injured in his first game with the Carolina Hurricanes, missed the remainder of the 2015-16 season, and was promptly bought out this off-season. Injury concerns are almost definitely the reason that Wisniewski remains unsigned, as he has top pair offensive ability when healthy, but simply isn’t healthy very often. However, even in this stagnant market, there are still D-needy teams who may be willing to pay for the chance at 30 to 40 points for an affordable, one-year deal if Wisniewski can play in the majority of the games this upcoming season. Unlike Quincey, who was actively bad this past season when healthy, Wisniewski’s ability post-injury is still somewhat unknown and may just give him a leg up in securing a contract.

Brandon Pirri (NR) – 2 years, $1.2MM

Finally we come to Pirri, who may be the closest comparison to Gagner remaining on the market. At 25 years old, Pirri perhaps has greatest potential of any remaining free agent, but is also a huge question mark. Despite showing some scoring ability in 166 NHL appearance, it seems many teams are still unsure of what his true ability is. He was expected to be tendered by the Anaheim Ducks, who acquired him at the Trade Deadline, and when they did not and he became an unrestricted free agent, he was expected to be scooped up quickly on July 1st. That also did not happen. Now, like Gagner, who is only 26 but must re-prove his NHL ability, Pirri is likely going to have to take a short-term deal for little money to show that he is an NHL-caliber player. At this point, Pirri is likely asking for a one-year deal so he can show himself and cash in next year, but don’t be surprised if he ends up signing for two or more so that the team can maintain control if their gamble pays off.

SKA Saint Petersburg: KHL Super Team

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No hockey team has done more to make their roster better and separate themselves from the rest of the pack this off-season than SKA Saint Petersburg. Albeit, the Russian team does play in the Kontinental Hockey League rather than the NHL, but no one could possibly be unimpressed by the talent that SKA has accumulated. While the NHL’s salary cap structure makes it almost impossible for a “super team” to be formed like those in the NBA or MLB, the KHL does not have such a structure and SKA is set to dominate the league in 2016-17.

This summer alone, SKA has brought in four players who played in the NHL last season, not the least of which is newly named captain and Detroit Red Wings legend Pavel Datsyuk. With one season remaining on his deal with Detroit, Datsyuk informed the team that he planned to play overseas in 2016-17. Not long after, his rights were traded to the Arizona Coyotes, but his true destination has always been St. Petersburg. A veteran of nearly 1000 NHL games, Datsyuk had 918 points in his 14 year NHL career. At 38 years old, Datsyuk still has a few years of production left in his homeland, and will look to lead his new team to Red Wings-like success. Joining him will be fellow 2015-16 NHLers Viktor Tihkonov, Sergei Plotnikov, and Alexander Khokhlachev. Tihkonov returns to SKA after a one-year hiatus from the KHL where he tried his hand at another NHL stint, but did not find the success he was hoping for. Plotnikov is also making a KHL comeback, as he had played his entire career in Russia before signing with the Pittsburgh Penguins last season. Khokhlachev on the other hand, is finally making his professional debut overseas after committing to North American hockey at a young age. He played his junior hockey with the Windsor Spitfires of the Ontario Hockey League and was drafted by the Boston Bruins in 2011, but after failing to develop as planned and crack the Boston roster, Khokhlachev chose to return home to Russia rather than likely spend another year with the AHL’s Providence Bruins.

The four new additions are joining an already loaded SKA roster that made it all the way to the KHL Western Conference finals last season. KHL superstar Vadim Shipachyov led the team with 60 points in 54 games last season, and former NHL All-Star Ilya Kovalchuk finished just behind him. Young Russians Yevgeni Dadonov and Lightning prospect Nikita Gusev and former University of New Hampshire Wildcats phenom Steve Moses round out what should be a potent top nine for SKA. The top blue line pair is led by highly regarded KHLer and Bruins property Maxim Chudinov and former NHL defenseman Anton Belov, and the net will be well-kept with returning starter Mikko Koskinen. 

While SKA may not be good enough to be a contender over an 82-game season against NHL competition, it would no doubt win more than a few games and will certainly win a majority of its games in the KHL in 2016-17. The Russian “super team” will be a story for hockey fans to follow this next year, and could be especially interesting should stars Shipachyov, Gusev, or Chudinov decide to make the trip overseas for a shot at NHL success.

 

Snapshots: Oilers, World Cup, Hudler

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Mark Spector of Sportsnet wrote today about the Oilers’ player evaluation failures, identifying it as the main cause of their ten-year playoff drought. Spector notes the decisions to let go of former Vice President of player personnel  Scott Howson and analytics guru Tyler Dellow, and naming Keith Gretzky assistant general manager. Spector argues that Keith Gretzky has had a successful run as part of the amateur scouting staff for the Phoenix Coyotes and Boston Bruins. Bruins’ beat writer Joe Haggerty tweeted today pointing out that while his tenure with the Bruins was relatively short, Gretzky’s first pick was scoring forward David Pastrnak.

The article also defends General Manager Peter Chiarelli from the suggestion that Dellow’s release is a rejection of analytics. Saying that it was a “deliveryman issue,” Spector says that there will still be Oilers’ staff working in analytics. Those who remember Dellow’s writing before joining the Oilers will likely remember the trades of Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, and Taylor Hall, and wonder how much input he’s had.

Here are more links from around hockey:

  • Insuring players for international tournaments is a critical issue for league participation. Gary Lawless tweets today that should unsigned players like Johnny Gaudreau, Jacob Trouba, or Sean Monahan still be without a contract, they will be insured at the league and players association’s expense. Several players sat out the 2004 World Cup because the coming lockout delayed contracts, and complicated the insurance issue.
  • TSN analytics writer Travis Yost makes the case today for a team to sign free agent forward Jiri Hudler. Hudler, 32, had 16 goals, and 46 points in 72 games with the Flames and Panthers last season, but had just one assist in six playoff games for the Panthers. Yost’s case, somewhat unconventional for an analytics writer, is based heavily on Hudler’s ability to improve his team’s shooting percentage.

Late Free Agent Signings Who Made A Difference

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Most of the best free agents are gone in the first few days of July, but sometimes the best value signings occur later on in the summer. There are generally at least a couple of guys who sign late, or who fight for a contract in training camp, and end up providing value for years. Here’s a list of some guys who should give you hope that your team can still make a savvy signing.

  • Clarke MacArthur – At the 2010 trade deadline, the Buffalo Sabres shipped MacArthur to the Atlanta Thrashers for third and fourth round picks in 2010. Over the full season he put up 16 goals, 35 points in 81 games, including three goals, nine points in 21 games for the Thrashers. This led to a $2.4MM, one-year arbitration award, which Atlanta rejected. The Toronto Maple Leafs then signed MacArthur to a one-year, $1.1MM deal, and he broke out for 21 goals, 62 points in 82 games that season. After signing a two-year extension, he put up another 20 goal season in 2012. MacArthur struggled the next year, never quite fitting with new Leafs’ coach Randy Carlyle. He was scratched often, before injuries forced him into the lineup in the playoffs, where he scored two goals in five games. The Ottawa Senators signed him two a two-year deal, and after a 24 goal, 55 point season, gave him a new five-year deal, worth $4.65MM per year. MacArthur’s injuries have slowed him down, but it’s hard to argue he wasn’t a great value signing.
  • Anton Stralman – At 25-years old in 2011, Stralman failed to earn a roster spot after a professional tryout with the New Jersey Devils. He’d been traded or let go of by the Maple Leafs, Flames, and Blue Jackets over the last two years, and was just looking for a job. In November, a Rangers team with a depleted defensive group decided to take a chance on him. Stralman quickly proved himself to be of value, and played in the top-four of a Rangers’ team that went to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately for the Rangers, in a cap world, you don’t always get all the benefits of your own good work, so Stralman signed a five-year, $4.5MM per year deal with the Lightning in July of 2014.
  • Teemu Selanne – It might seem weird to have Selanne here, given he’s a lock for the Hall of Fame, but it was different in 2005. Everyone was a late signing, given that the lockout pushed the start of free agency until August 1st. Still, Selanne had to wait until the 21st to get a one-year deal for low money, which many thought was about getting one last NHL season in before retirement. He was 35, had declined in his time with the Sharks, and then failed to live up to expectations in Colorado. Instead of ending his career, Selanne scored 40 goals and 90 points. The next year, he led the Ducks in scoring, winning the 2007 Stanley Cup. Selanne’s run with Anaheim, who he had previously played for from 1996 to 2001, would last not one year, but nine.
  • Dan Cleary – The salary cap coming around in 2005 was a huge problem for the Detroit Red Wings. They ended up having to buy out the contracts of Derian Hatcher, Ray Whitney, and Darren McCarty, and since the end of 2004, had to move on from Dominik Hasek, Curtis Joseph, and Brett Hull. At the time, Cleary was a former top prospect who couldn’t stick with the Blackhawks, Oilers, and Coyotes, and was just looking for work. He came to Detroit’s training camp while they were desperate to fill out a roster, and signed the day before the season started. He had only three goals, 15 points for the Red Wings that year, but the team liked him well enough to keep him, and he went on to score 2o goals, 40 points in 2007. He’d hit the 20 goal mark two more times, and stay with the Red Wings until 2015, winning the Stanley Cup in 2008.
  • Matt Moulson – Moulson was a 25 year old veteran AHL scorer when the Islanders signed him in July 2009. It wasn’t a late signing, but it was definitely overlooked. 29 games into his NHL career, all with the Kings, he was never assumed to be a future impact player. He had been taken in the 9th round by Pittsburgh, and even the articles on his signing group him in with minor leaguers. Moulson responded by making the team out of camp, playing on the top line with John Tavares, and scoring a total of 97 goals over the next three seasons. The goals haven’t come quite as easily to Moulson since he joined the Buffalo Sabres, but at 33 he’s had a strong run in the NHL. If the only free agents a team signed were the flashy ones they gave five-year deals to, he may have never been able to prove himself.

Minor Signings

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Here’s the latest on minor free agent signings, and one player to accept a tryout:

  • James Mirtle reports that defenseman Stu Bickel, 29, has agreed to a tryout with the Anaheim Ducks. Bickel has no goals, but 10 assists in 76 career NHL games for the New York Rangers and Minnesota Wild. He last appeared in the NHL in 2015. Bickel was originally signed by the Ducks as an undrafted free agent in 2008.
  • General Fanager tweets that forward Danny Kristo has re-signed with the St. Louis Blues. It will be a one-year, two-way contract. Kristo’s salary will come in at $575K in the NHL, and $175K in the AHL. At 26, he’s never played a game in the NHL, despite being a secound round pick of the Montreal Canadiens in 2008. Kristo spent last year with the Blues’ AHL affiliates, the Chicago Wolves.
  • Gold Star Sports Management say their client Roman Dyukov has signed a one-year contract with the Calgary Flames. The 20 year old Belarussian defenseman scored eight points in 32 games for Yunior Minsk last year, and played at the IIHF World Championships.

 

Snapshots: World Cup, Tufte, Grabovski, Penguins

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The NHL and ESPN today released the U.S. broadcast schedule for the upcoming World Cup of Hockey. The tournament runs from September 8th to as late as October 1st, should the best-of-three final go the distance. The games will be broadcast in the United States on all four ESPN channels. The Canadian broadcast schedule was previously released in May, and the games will air in Canada on Rogers Sportsnet and CBC.

Here are some more snapshots from around the league:

  • Matt Wellens of the Duluth News Tribune writes today on Dallas Stars’ first round pick Riley Tufte, who will miss the remainder of the US national junior development camp with a broken wrist. Tufte, 18, is not expected to miss time during the regular season, which he’ll play at the University of Minnesota Duluth . Tufte had 10 goals, 14 points in 27 games for the USHL’s Fargo Force last year.
  • David Holcomb of Today’s Slapshot discusses Mikhail Grabovski and the New York Islanders today. Holcomb writes that after the big financial commitment the Islanders made to Grabovski, the amount of time he’s missed through injuries is difficult to deal with. He’s played well when healthy, but he plays with a fearlessness that gets him into trouble, especially with his lack of size.
  • The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey reports on the Penguins’ AHL affiliates, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, have added to their coaching staff. Chris Taylor and J.D. Forrest will be join head coach Clark Donatelli. Forrest, 35, played last year in the ECHL. Taylor, 44, played 149 games in the NHL for the Bruins, Islanders, and Sabres, and spent last year as an assistant coach for the Rochester Americans.

Snapshots: Unsigned Restricted Free Agents, Trouba, Hudler

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The list of Restricted Free Agents has some serious star power on it, despite the calendar turning to August. Between Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Hampus Lindholm, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Kucherov, and Jacob Trouba, there are a handful of elite franchise building blocks without a contract. If you’re keeping count at home, that’s two legit number one defenseman, a possible number one in Trouba, and three high-end first line forwards. Quality players like Ryan Strome and Cody Ceci are also waiting to get contracts, having passed on their qualifying offers.

Here are some other snapshots from around the hockey world:

  • On That’s Hockey, TSN’s Gary Lawless reported that things are very quiet between Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets, saying the two sides are far apart on “everything… they’re apart on term, they’re apart on money, they’re apart on usage”. Trouba finds himself behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the right side, and according to Lawless he feels he should be playing with one of the team’s top defenders. A trade involving Trouba is unlikely according to Lawless.
  • Also on TSN, Travis Yost made a strong case for UFA winger Jiri Hudler, arguing that while he’s past his prime scoring days, Hudler still has a very positive effect on his teammates. Hudler raises his team’s shooting percentage by 2.44 per cent when he’s on the ice. That ranks fourth in the NHL since 2010, behind superstars Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and the now-retired Martin St. Louis. We ranked Hudler 18th on our Top 50 Free Agents list back in June, and estimated a four-year, $16MM contract. Look for him to sign a much less expensive one-year pact with a goal-hungry team to prove he’s still got it.

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