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Are NHL Super Teams Possible?

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Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that the idea of an NHL super team in the mold of the new NBA craze is simply unattainable due to the economics and setup of the league. Lambert shows that while an NBA team can sign a young, future hall of fame player who can immediately impact a team, hockey does not have the same luxury. Lambert uses Sidney Crosby as an example. Should Crosby end up in Detroit, his impact would be felt, but would not guarantee Detroit as a Cup contender. Instead, it would take other pieces to solidify such a dominating force.

The setup of the sports are different as well. Lambert shows that a Pittsburgh team comprised of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang struggled at times to get past teams that were not nearly as deep with talent. Lambert even went as as far to show “death lineups” of players who dominated while on the same side. Though they wore the same jerseys, their impact was different because in hockey, it’s rare that all of those players will appear on the ice at the exact same time. Of those six death lineups, five won a Cup. Only the 2012-13 Bruins, who lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Blackhawks (also another death lineup), fell short.

Lambert doesn’t discount that having eight high end, perennial all-star caliber players could heavily favor a team. It’s just that the restrictive nature of the salary cap prevents it from happening. At best, Lambert writes, a team can have four or five high end players at a time.

Perhaps the bigger issue revolves around finances and marketing.

The financial structure of the league is significantly different than the NBA. Lambert shows that the league revenues have remained flat, and shows a gate revenue that is all but maxed out. The NBA, on the other hand, has seen a significant increase in revenue and also enjoy lucrative television deals. Additionally, the Canadian dollar, according to a Globe and Mail report, may have cost the NHL nearly $200MM in revenue. Though the numbers are from 2014, Fox Sports wrote up a report, along with graphics, that show the stark discrepancy in revenue between the NHL and other major sports.

Where Lambert really hits the point home is how the sport is marketed. It’s no secret that hockey is a niche sport. As parity has reigned during the salary cap era, the differences between a top team and a bottom feeder, while sometimes large, still afford the ability for an upset to occur.

Whether it’s fair or unfair, the lesser known teams in a Stanley Cup Final could be horrendous for the league as well. The idea of a Tampa Bay-San Jose Final this year would have wreaked havoc on ratings. Even though both teams boast high caliber players, they are both “non-traditional” markets that outside of their respective area, would generate little interest. Contrast that with a possible Pittsburgh-Chicago Final and it underscores the issue with the NHL: lack of familiarity in non-established markets.

As Lambert pointed out, Steph Curry jerseys are everywhere and his presence on television is a must see event. Ovechkin? Crosby? McDavid? Toews? Sure, hockey fans know them. But ask the average sports fan where Conor McDavid plays, and you might get a blank stare. Some might struggle to even say who he is.

Until revenues explode and familiarity is bred, superteams, whether they are a good or bad thing, are just not possible with the structure of today’s NHL.

Ducks Acquire Bernier From Maple Leafs

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Reported by several sources, the Toronto Maple Leafs have dealt goaltender Jonathan Bernier to the Anaheim Ducks for a conditional 2017 draft pick.

The Maple Leafs and Ducks both announced the trade on their respective websites. The 27-year-old netminder was the odd man out once the Leafs acquired Frederik Andersen from the Ducks in June due to his cap hit. In Toronto last season, Bernier recorded 12 wins and posted a .908 save percentage. Helene Elliott tweets that the cap hit for Bernier is $4.1MM, while $2.1MM is the base salary due to signing bonuses that were paid by the Leafs last Friday.

CapFriendly reports that the Leafs now have just over $5.2MM in cap space after dealing Bernier.  The Ducks have $9.1MM of cap space after adding Bernier.

Now in Anaheim, Bernier is reunited with former coach Randy Carlyle and will presumably back up John Gibson.

Jets Re-Sign Brenden Kichton To One-Year Deal

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Per their website, the Winnipeg Jets announced the re-signing of defenseman Brenden Kichton. The deal is for one-year, $600K. It is also a two-way contract.

In 68 games with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose, Kichton had 41 points (11-30) in 68 games. The 24-year-old defenseman led all blue liners in points, and spent the season with the Moose.

With Kichton’s signing, the Jets now only have six restricted free agents. This list includes Jacob Trouba, Brandon Tanev, Joel Armia, J.C. Lipon, Adam Lowry and Mark Scheifele.

Red Wings Snapshots: Vanek, Cholowski

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Though many blasted the term and money used to re-sign Darren Helm, and the idea to bring Steve Ott into the fold, there were some who appreciated the Detroit Red Wings signing of Thomas Vanek. While the Red Wings addressed a need by signing center Frans Nielsen to a six-year deal, the signing of Vanek was one that many labeled as a low risk, high reward. Vanek, who was bought out by Minnesota, inked a one-year, $2.6MM contract and is expected to boost a moribund Red Wings power play that struggled throughout the season and into the playoffs.

There is also a faction of the Wings fan base that believes Vanek prevents a young forward, namely Andreas Athanasiou or Anthony Mantha, from getting a full time spot on the roster. To answer this question and others, MLive’s Tom Mitsos quantified Vanek’s performance and possible future performance by using advanced stats. Mitsos found that as many have pointed out, Vanek appears to be on the downside of his career. Besides the obvious slide in goals, points, and being bought out by his previous team, the advanced measures of his ability don’t bode well for the 32-year-old forward.

Mitsos lists Vanek’s Corsi For percentage as the first indicator. Vanek registered a CF% of 45.45, which is considered below average in terms of puck possession metrics.  Further, Mitsos reveals a similar comparison when looking at it from a three year glance. Mitsos also points out that current forward Tomas Tatar, who has been speculated as a possible trade target, has Vanek beaten in almost every major category.

That’s not good, especially since the Red Wings are looking to move pieces to acquire a #1 defenseman, something the team has lacked for nearly five seasons. Moving a player who outpaces another who looks to be a one-year rental hardly helps the long term health of a franchise.

Mitsos concludes that should Vanek tally 20 goals this upcoming season, it would go a long way in justifying the signing. But a deeper statistical dive shows exactly what many suspected: Vanek’s better years are far behind him.

Other Red Wings news:

  • 2016 first round draft pick Dennis Cholowski has a lot to like about him writes MLive’s Brendan Savage. The Red Wings front office labeled him an “elite thinker” on the ice, and also spoke highly of his puck possession and offensive abilities. Cholowski is headed to St. Cloud State where he’s expected to develop into a top four defenseman the Red Wings can rely on to produce points. While Ken Holland cautioned fans that the Wings would take their time developing Cholowski, there’s no question their eyes are glued to the young defenseman as a future solution to their current woes on the blue line.

Free Agent Profile: James Wisniewski

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Perhaps no 2016 NHL free agent is as perplexing as James Wisniewski. “The Wiz” has had a roller coaster career; his strong offensive production and possession ability have often been overshadowed by his defensive deficiencies, an inability to stay on the ice, and a knack for being traded. The journeyman defenseman finds himself as an afterthought on the free agent market thus far, and was not even included on our Top 50 Free Agents list, despite being just 32 years old and only two years removed from the best season of his career. However, with the demand for right-handed defenseman being as high as it has ever been, Wisniewski won’t be unsigned for long. The only question is whether he is able to command a market-value multi-year contract or if instead some team will get him on a short, inexpensive deal.

When Wisniewski broke into the league during the ’05-’06 season, he was one of the most talked-about prospects in hockey. Despite being selected by the Chicago Blackhawks in the fifth round of the 2002 NHL draft, the former Plymouth Whalers captain excelled in his later years in junior hockey. Following an ’03-’04 season in which he scored 70 points in only 50 games, Wisniewski was awarded the Max Kaminsky Trophy as the most outstanding defenseman in the Ontario Hockey League in 2004, and then also took home the title of CHL Defenseman of the Year and First Team All-Star.

After two seasons in the AHL, Wisniewski debuted with the Blackhawks in ’05-’06, but his season was cut short by a torn ACL. It would be the beginning of an injury-riddled career. Wisniewski played well in his early seasons with the Blackhawks, even playing with a toughness and grit (103 PIM in ’07-’08) that has been missing from his game in recent years, but it was not enough to keep him in Chicago. He was dealt to the Anaheim Ducks at the trade deadline in 2009. Despite scoring 30 points in 69 games for the Ducks the following season, after just a year and a half in Anaheim, Wisniewski was traded again, this time to the New York Islanders. Only 32 games into the 2010 season, Wisniewski was traded for a third time, being sent to the Montreal Canadiens for the remainder of the year. Between New York and Montreal, he scored a career high 10 goals in the ’10-’11 season and totaled 51 points in 75 games. Wisniewski finally had the chance to choose his own destination that off-season, and cashed in on his success with a six-year, $33MM deal to play for the Columbus Blue Jackets. As a leader on the ice and in the locker room on a young Columbus team, Wisniewski finally had a long-term home with the Blue Jackets. In ’13-’14 he matched his career high with 51 points in 75 games, and then started hot again the next season, with 29 points through 56 games. He was playing so well, that Columbus decided to trade him at the deadline, and Wisniewski returned to Anaheim for a second stint with the Ducks.

Going into last season, things were looking good for James Wisniewski. He had put up strong numbers in back-to-back seasons and hadn’t been hampered by injuries the past few years either. He even had a new home, as the Ducks dealt him to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for goalie Anton Khudobin at the 2015 draft. However, on opening night, just 47 seconds into his first shift as a member of the Hurricanes, Wisniewski tore his ACL again and did not play a single for the rest of the season. Carolina made his absence permanent recently, buying out the final year of his contract and making him a free agent.

Wisniewski now finds himself as one of more polarizing players available to teams looking for defensive help. One view point is that he is a dominant offensive defenseman, who has averaged close to 40 points in every season that he has played over 50 games and who consistently has the possession numbers of a top pairing defenseman. The other viewpoint is that in ten NHL seasons, he has played on average in only 55 games per season and has done so on six different teams, indicating that not only does he have trouble staying on the ice, but perhaps teams don’t want him on the ice either. Wisniewski has little leverage, as he is coming off of a serious injury, and is likely to sign a short-term deal for much less money than he’s used to. However, if the former opinion proves to be true, then “the Wiz” could end up as the steal of the off-season as a short-term solution for a D-needy team like the Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, or New Jersey Devils and then make his money next off-season. If the latter opinion proves to be true, then the team can always just trade him. He’s used to it by now.

Snapshots: Matthews; Tavares; Senators

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Number one draft pick Auston Matthews remains unsigned by the Toronto Maple Leafs, despite the rigidity of an entry level contract. As reported by Toronto Star writer Kevin McGran, and touched on by us earlier, the signing delay may stem from Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello’s aversion to contract bonuses. Entry level contracts are  fairly straightforward, with base salary capped at $925,000. The wiggle room comes in the form of performance bonuses.

The CBA allows for two types of ELC bonuses, creatively called Individual “A” and “B” bonuses. “A” Bonuses are capped at an aggregate total of $850K, and “B” bonuses are capped at an aggregate total of $2MM. Thus, a player could theoretically earn up to $3.77MM in base salary and bonuses.

For reference, the last two number one picks—Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Florida’s Aaron Ekblad—received the max base salary and bonuses available. Patrik Laine, the number two pick this year, received a full base salary and $2.65MM in potential bonuses while the third pick Pierre-Luc Dubois received a full base salary and $2.5MM in potential bonuses.

Other notes around the league:

  • The New York Islanders hope to sign John Tavares to an extension next summer, according to GM Garth Snow. The Islanders captain has two more years left on his deal that pays him $5.5MM a year. GM Snow would want to avoid the controversy and uncertainty that surrounded Steven Stamkos and the Tampa Bay Lightning this summer. Unless Tavares’s play declines significantly, the centerman is in line for a hefty raise.
  • Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion spoke to the media today regarding signing Chris Kelly and other future transactions. Dorion is confident that the Sens will get a deal done with RFAs Cody Ceci and Mike Hoffman. Hoffman elected for salary arbitration—his second time in two years—while Ceci is not yet eligible. Dorion also intimated that the Senators will not pursue any more free agents, which corroborates the popular conception that the team operates under a restrictive internal budget.

AHL Announces Rule Changes For 2016-17 Season

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The American Hockey League announced a number of changes heading into the 2016-17 season. The AHL announced division realignment and also indicated that light colored jerseys would be worn at home prior to the league’s Christmas break. After the break, teams will wear their dark jerseys on home ice.

One of the biggest changes that hockey fans will notice will be the crackdown on fighting. Changes to Rules 46 (Fighting) and 23 (Game Misconduct) are stated below:

• Players who enter into a fight prior to, at, or immediately following the drop of the puck for a faceoff will be assessed an automatic game misconduct in addition to other penalties assessed.
• During the regular season, any player who incurs his 10th fighting major shall be suspended automatically for one (1) game. For each subsequent fighting major up to 13, the player shall also be suspended automatically for one (1) game.
• During the regular season, any player who incurs his 14th fighting major shall be suspended automatically for two (2) games. For each subsequent fighting major, the player shall also be suspended automatically for two (2) games.
• In any instance where the opposing player was assessed an instigator penalty, the fighting major shall not count towards the player’s total for this rule.

This is the first step by the board of governors to address fighting in the AHL. Suspensions are handed out for accruing 10 fighting majors. Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski notes that the AHL had 22 players with 10 or more fights. After a player receives his 14th fighting major, the automatic suspension becomes two games.

One other game change revolved around icing calls. On an icing call (Rule 82), offending teams not only cannot make player substitutions, but cannot use a time out.

Central Notes: Blackhawks, Stars

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Enter the Chicago Blackhawks into the number of teams interested in Jimmy Vesey reports Mike Harrington. Harrington cites the Providence Journal story that placed Hawks general manager Stan Bowman at the Foxboro Sports Center watching Vesey compete. Additionally, Harrington uses Chicago’s signing of Artemi Panarin as another clue into the Hawks’ interest in the Hobey Baker Trophy winner.

Chicago reaped the benefits of inking Panarin who complemented Patrick Kane well on a line, notched 77 points (30-44) and won the Calder Trophy as the league’s best rookie. Vesey would be an intriguing signing as the Hawks can promise ice time and instant success since the Blackhawks window to win remains wide open with Jonathan Toews, and Kane still being in the prime of their careers. As it stands, the Blackhawks remain just one of many teams looking into Vesey’s services. Harrington reports that Vesey seems willing to listen to every interested team before he inks a deal, and not just signing with the Sabres because they hold his rights.

Other Central news:

  • The Blackhawks have added Derek King as an assistant coach for AHL affiliate Rockford. Tracey Myers tweets that King spent 2009-2015 on the Toronto Marlies coaching staff. The Blackhawks also released a statement announcing King’s hiring with the Icehogs.
  • Mike Heika answered a number of questions about the Stars goaltending situation during a chat session. Among the several goaltending questions he received, Heika indicated that while the Stars are apparently content with their situation in net for now, it shouldn’t be ruled out that they could try to upgrade later. Heika says that while rumors cannot be discounted about Ben Bishop or Marc-Andre Fleury, Heika is “guessing” when he thinks the Stars would pass on Fleury due to playoff inconsistencies. He also speculates that a mid-season deal for Bishop would be more likely, especially if the Lightning cannot come to terms with him.
  • Heika also writes extensively about who the Stars need to develop between the pipes as the Stars dealt former prospect Jack Campbell after years of trying to make him the organization’s franchise goalie. Heika lists Max Lagace, Philippe Desrosiers, and Landon Bow as the three prospects the Stars must bring along in order to solve their goaltending woes. Both Bow and Desrosiers are both invitees to the Stars development camp and then the prospects tournament in Traverse City. Lagace intrigues because it was him who usurped Campbell, and helped the decision to jettison him to Los Angeles. Heika also lists Lagace as the favorite to be the #1 goalie in the AHL.

Canucks Sign Markstrom To Three-Year Extension

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The Vancouver Canucks announced the re-signing of goalie Jacob Markstrom. The extension is for three years, $11MM. Markstrom will finish his current contract, which holds a hit of $1.55MM through the 2016-17 season. The new cap hit starting in the 2017-18 season will be $3.67MM.

The Canucks announced the re-signing this morning. General manager Jim Benning reported that Markstrom “loves playing in Vancouver and is excited.” Benning also lauded Markstrom’s skill set and efforts in the crease.

Last season, Markstrom appeared in 33 games and posted a .915 save percentage. He had 13 wins.

Senators Sign Chris Kelly To One-Year Deal

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Chris Kelly will return to the Ottawa Senators on a one-year, $900K deal. Kelly played for the Senators from 2003-04 until 2010-11 before he was shipped off to Boston.

Last season, Kelly had two goals in 11 games. He was limited to only 11 games after fracturing his femur. Prior to that, Kelly had 28 points (7-21) in 80 games during the 2014-15 Bruins campaign.

Kelly returns to a Senators team seeking a chance at going back to the playoffs after missing in 2015-16. The 900K contract is a bargain for a player, who if healthy, could replicate his 2014-15 efforts with Boston.

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