Many have speculated that the Ducks will be a major player in the Mitch Marner sweepstakes. The All-Star winger is nearly guaranteed to hit the open market on July 1, and Anaheim has the third-most cap space in the league early in the offseason, according to PuckPedia.
That flexibility, plus a mandate from ownership to contend for a playoff spot next season, means they could offer Marner the most lucrative seven-year offer of any club this summer. James Mirtle of The Athletic reports Monday they’re considering offering him an AAV that would push north of the $14MM mark, making him the league’s highest-paid player starting next season.
Whether Marner is considering teams that aren’t currently established playoff contenders remains to be seen. Still, it’s hard to imagine any team, aside from the Blue Jackets and their $40.4MM in cap space, being willing to enter that range. Even an offer matching, not exceeding, Oilers superstar Leon Draisaitl’s league-high $14MM cap hit comes in well north of his projected market value of just a shade under $13MM, according to AFP Analytics.
There will naturally be sticker shock when it comes to many deals this summer, with an 8.5% increase in the salary cap’s Upper Limit from $88MM to $95.5MM. Draisaitl’s mega-extension, which costs 14.66% of the cap when it starts next season, would be equivalent to a $12.9MM AAV had it gone into effect last year.
Any conversation about Marner pushing into the $14MM tier per season will result in direct comparisons between him and Draisaitl, especially with the latter’s extension being signed under a year ago and kicking in at the same time Marner’s next deal will. That’s where things will get hairy for Anaheim regarding public perception of the contract, even if acquiring a dynamic offensive threat of Marner’s caliber is a crucial long-term step in helping them return to relevance.
Draisaitl is one year Marner’s senior and had a two-year head start on him in beginning his NHL career, but the former wasn’t immediately thrust into top-six minutes like Marner was. Even still, Draisaitl’s career points per game rate of 1.21 dwarfs that of Marner’s 1.13.
The discrepancy between the two increases when putting them on equal footing regarding sample size. Draisaitl’s points-per-game rate increases to 1.32 from the beginning of Marner’s career in 2016-17. Over the past three seasons, Draisaitl has operated at a 120-point pace per 82 games compared to Marner’s 102.
The soon-to-be-former Maple Leafs winger has historically been a far more valuable player defensively than Draisaitl, but that changed this season, at least in terms of public perception. Draisaitl came one place ahead of Marner in Selke Trophy voting after posting career-best possession numbers (58.8 CF%, 61.2 xGF%) at even strength. While playoff production has far less impact on contract value, Draisaitl is in a different tier, with a 1.49 career points per game rate in the postseason compared to Marner’s 0.9.
Combine all that with Draisaitl playing a more traditionally valuable position, and it’s hard to imagine many other teams willing to match a $14MM offer for Marner if the Ducks make it, even if they technically have the resources to do so. Suppose he enters July 1 open-minded about his next destination. That discrepancy between Anaheim’s offer and whatever the second-best one is for him financially could be enough to tip the scales in the Ducks’ favor.