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Injury Notes: Blues, Kuznetsov, Larkin

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As the St. Louis Blues embark on a six-game road trip, they are leaving many of their top players behind. While Vladimir Tarasenko appears ready to be activated from the Long-Term Injured Reserve, many other Blues are not as lucky. Alex Steen and Carl Gunnarsson are out for the year, placed on LTIR, while Tyler Bozak, Ivan Barbashev, and Robert Thomas all remain sidelined on standard IR, and you can now add two more to the lengthy list of absences, as Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Colton Parayko and Jaden Schwartz also did not travel with the team. Due to the length of the trip, this implies that both are currently dealing with substantial injuries and will not be recovered within the next two weeks. This aligns with a recent report from The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford that suggest Parayko had been playing through a back injury but simply could not keep going, especially as his performance suffered. Surgery is a potential option for Parayko, but for now he is being given substantial rest and rehab in hopes that it can be avoided. Schwartz remains more unknown, only termed day-to-day thus far, but clearly his injury is more of the “week-to-week” variety. The Blues will have to hope for the best from their top options and trust their depth, as a long bout of the injury bug can be especially debilitating in a shortened season.

  • In some surprising news from earlier, Evgeny Kuznetsov was ruled out for the Washington Capitals’ Saturday matinee match-up. Kuznetsov has been diagnosed with an undisclosed upper-body injury and is considered day-to-day, but it is unknown when and how the injury occurred. According to The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir, Kuznetsov was a full participant in practice on Friday, even getting in some early solo work. There is no word on if he will be available to the Capitals tomorrow for their re-match with the New Jersey Devils.
  • The Detroit Red Wings will be without their captain and leading scorer this weekend, the team announced. Dylan Larkin has been ruled out for Saturday and Sunday meetings with the rival Chicago Blackhawks and is considered day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. With Tyler Bertuzzi still sidelined as well, the league’s second-lowest scoring teams loses another major name from its short list of weapons.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Washington Capitals

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We’ve made it past the holiday season but there is still plenty to be thankful for. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this season comes with a bit of a change. Typically at this time of the calendar year, the trade deadline is fast approaching but now, we’re only at the one-quarter mark.  Still, we’ll analyze what they’re happy about so far and what they can be hoping for in the months to come.

What are the Capitals most thankful for?

A consistent stream of firepower.  While a few players have come and gone due to salary cap constraints, the majority of Washington’s core has been intact for a while.  The end result has been plenty of offense.  The Caps are in the top ten in goals scored this season and that’s a spot they’ve been in for a while.  You have to go back all the way to 2013-14 to find the last time they weren’t in the top-ten in that department (they were 11th that year).  Yes, it’s an expensive core which has presented some challenges for GM Brian MacLellan along the way but it’s also an enviable foundation to build from and knowing that there’s a top-ten attack year in and year out certainly makes things a bit easier from a roster-building perspective.

Who are the Capitals most thankful for?

Alex Ovechkin would be the best answer but there will be more on him shortly.  Instead, let’s look at another significant offensive threat in John Carlson.  He’s the one Washington defender that produces with any offensive consistency; he almost has as many goals so far this season (five) as the rest of their back end combined (six).  Last year, he outscored the rest of Washington’s blueliners 15-11 while leading the team in points.  Carlson’s defensive zone play has also improved and it has reached the point where his $8MM price tag went from being viewed as a reasonable gamble to an outright bargain.  He was the Norris Trophy runner up last season and should be in the mix for that award for a few more years.

What would the Capitals be even more thankful for?

Getting an extension done with Ovechkin.  He has been their franchise player since the moment he first set foot in the league back in 2005 and the 13-year, $124MM contract he signed back in 2008 that seemed a bit outlandish at the time has wound up yielding a lot of value for the Caps.  Ovechkin has committed to re-signing with Washington although his playing career is likely to come to an end back in Russia.  Even so, it’s something that MacLellan will want to get done sooner than later just to get a sense of what their salary cap situation will be down the road.  They’re not in a position to ask him to take a significant hometown discount and his next contract may very well come in close to his current $9.538MM AAV.  They can wait until the offseason if they need to but getting it done now would certainly make everyone thankful.

What should be on the Capitals’ wish list?

With cap space at an absolute premium right now – they can’t afford to recall anyone right now even with Henrik Lundqvist and Michal Kempny’s LTIR room, MacLellan’s hands may ultimately be tied in terms of trying to add anything by the April 12th trade deadline.  But if the opportunity presents itself, adding center depth would be a worthwhile addition.  When Evgeny Kuznetsov was on the CPRA list, the Caps were forced to turn to T.J. Oshie down the middle and they don’t really have any reliable proven options on the taxi squad or with AHL Hershey right now.  They have high hopes for Connor McMichael who could be their best option for any extended absence but as a junior-aged player, that would be a tough ask.  Finding someone that could cover in the bottom six and allow Lars Eller to move up if necessary would be a great luxury to have – if only they could afford it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

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Michael Peca Hired By Washington Capitals

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The Washington Capitals have added a fresh face to the organization, hiring Michael Peca as a player development coach. Peca is expected to work primarily with the players on Washington’s taxi squad this season.

If you remember the Buffalo Sabres team that made it to the Stanley Cup Final in 1999 (only to lose to the toe of Brett Hull), you remember Peca. A whirlwind of offensive talent, defensive responsibility and devastating open-ice hits, Peca made the most of his relatively small frame.

In 864 career games he recorded 465 points, including a career-high 60 with the New York Islanders in 2001-02. He won his second Selke Trophy that season while playing under Peter Laviolette, who happens to be the Capitals head coach. If Peca can instill any of that defensive responsibility—he finished in the top-five of Selke voting for seven straight seasons—in the Capitals depth players, he’ll be a valuable coaching asset.

NHL Announces Postponement, Reschedule

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12:15pm: The league has officially postponed tonight’s game between the Flyers and Capitals after a second player entered the COVID protocol. No other games have been postponed at the moment, but the league will continue to analyze test results in the coming days.

The league has also announced that the St. Louis Blues and Arizona Coyotes will move another game from later in the season, meaning they will now have seven games in a row against each other due to COVID outbreaks in other parts of the Central Division. Game #684, originally scheduled for April 15, will now be played this Friday, February 12.

10:15am: The Philadelphia Flyers are the latest NHL team facing the specter of postponement. Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the team had another positive test result late last night and will likely have their game against the Washington Capitals this evening postponed. Travis Sanheim was the only Philadelphia player on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list yesterday, but that appears likely to change.

As we’ve seen with some of the other outbreaks, positive test results can come slowly and trickle in for several days after the initial positive test. It’s not clear how many players or staff have tested positive in Philadelphia or how widespread the damage is, but it appears as though they’ll miss at least one game (and, given the way the NHL has operated previously, more than that).

Of course, just 12 days from now the Flyers were set to take on the Boston Bruins in the NHL’s marquee outdoor event. The NHL Outdoors at Lake Tahoe is a set of two games including Philadelphia, Boston, Colorado, and Vegas that is supposed to start a modern trend of Mystery, Alaska-type events in the North American wilderness.

We’ll have to wait and see if that event is in jeopardy, but the focus now is getting the Flyers players healthy and safe. The list of postponements continues to grow.

Minor Transactions: 02/08/21

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The AHL (at least most of its teams) has now joined the NHL in a new season, but there are still plenty of moves being made in the minors as teams solidify their lineups for the new campaign. Of course, many of those who were not successful in securing a contract in the NHL or AHL continue to find work overseas, while other are returning to juniors. Keep up with all of the minor moves made today right here:

  • A pair of veterans have been successful with AHL tryouts in Pennsylvania. Tim Schaller has earned a spot with the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins, per a league release, while Chris Mueller will be back in the AHL for a 13th consecutive season as the Lehigh Valley Phantoms announced a one-year deal. Schaller, 30, had been an NHL regular for several years before last season, when his lack of production for the Vancouver Canucks finally caught up with him and he was traded to the Los Angeles Kings and subsequently demoted. Schaller has been an effective fourth liner in the past and will look to earn his way back to the NHL with a strong season in the minors. Mueller, 34, is likely beyond an NHL comeback at this point, having not played in the league since 2014-15, but the decorated AHLer is only a couple seasons away from cracking the league’s top 20 in all-time games played.
  • An intriguing prospect has signed on with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies. Pavel Gogolev, fresh off of a 96-point season in the OHL last year, has returned to Ontario to join the Marlies, according to the AHL’s transactions log. He had been playing with Vasby IK of Sweden’s Allsvenskan to begin the year, but the club confirms that his contract has been terminated. Gogolev, 20, was passed over yet again in the most recent NHL Draft despite finishing sixth overall in OHL scoring last season. Perhaps this was due to his advanced age relative to other draft-eligible prospects or the lack of development in his defensive ability, but there is no doubting that Gogolev has impressive offensive skill and has shown repeatedly that he is committed to North American hockey and pursuing an NHL career. He will take another step closer to that goal this season with AHL Toronto.
  • Blake Pietila is looking to stick around the North American game and has signed a PTO with the Hershey Bears, the team announced. The former New Jersey Devils prospect signed with the Anaheim Ducks for the 2019-20 season, but played exclusively in the AHL despite having set a new career high in NHL appearances the season prior. The hard-working forward is looking for another opportunity to show he can still be an NHL asset and hopes to not only crack the Hershey roster, but carve out a top role as well. Pietila has recorded 142 points in 266 career AHL games, proving himself to be an impact player in the minors.
  • Despite appearing in training camp for the San Jose Barracuda, Sharks prospect Vladislav Kotkov will wait another season to turn pro. The Sharks have reassigned Kotkov to the QMHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs for one final junior campaign, the team announced. The Sea Dogs are certainly happy about the decision; Kotkov was acquired this summer for a pair of draft picks which would have been squandered if he had never suited up for the team. The overage import forward is a big, powerful offensive presence who is sure to make a major impact for Saint John before inevitably doing so for the Barracuda and possibly the Sharks down the road as well.
  • Former NHL journeyman Andrew Ebbett made a career as a hired gun, playing for six different teams over eight seasons but still managing to suit up for 32 games each year on average. However, when his luck in North America ran out in 2015, he made the unlikely discovery of the first long-term home of his career with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA. Ebbett has spent the last five seasons with Bern, the past four of which as a captain and a top-five scoring forward. However, it is time for Ebbett to move on yet again. At 38, he is not ready to call it a career just yet, but has said goodbye to Bern and signed with EHC Munich of the German DEL. Having recently lost other names familiar to NHL fans in Derek Roy and Kalle Kossila, the Red Bulls were excited to land the veteran Ebbett as a replacement for the remainder of the year.

COVID Notes: Dahlin, Wild, Kuznetsov

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The Buffalo Sabres will have another big name on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list when it comes out later today as they have already announced that Rasmus Dahlin has been added. The team now has nine players in the protocol, plus head coach Ralph Krueger.

Technically, Dahlin was actually added to the list last night. It originally had just Casey Mittelstadt joining the other seven players previously listed—Taylor Hall, Jake McCabe, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen, Dylan Cozens, and Curtis Lazar—but Dahlin was an update given later. Like with any other player, being on the list does not necessarily mean you have tested positive for COVID-19. The Sabres are currently scheduled to resume play on February 11.

  • The Minnesota Wild will also likely have some names added today, or at least in the near future. GM Bill Guerin implied that to Michael Russo of The Athletic, who did a very interesting examination of the outbreak with the Wild and the related league protocols. The Wild are also off until February 11, though that game against the St. Louis Blues seems very much in jeopardy should the team add several names today. Minnesota currently has nine players on the CPRA list.
  • Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ilya Samsonov of the Washington Capitals spoke to reporters today following their own bouts with COVID-19 and provided a bit different experiences. When asked if he was scared at any point while experiencing symptoms, Kuznetsov told Samantha Pell of the Washington Post “no, I’m from Russia.” Samsonov meanwhile told Pell through an interpreter that there were a few days where he had trouble breathing and walking. Both players were on the ice today at practice.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/07/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. Here is the CPRA list for Sunday:

Anaheim – TBA
Buffalo – Taylor Hall, Rasmus Ristolainen, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Jake McCabe, Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Casey Mittelstadt*
Chicago – Adam Boqvist, Ryan Carpenter, Lucas Wallmark
Colorado – Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog, Samuel Girard*
Dallas – TBA
Florida – TBA
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou, Blake Lizotte
Minnesota – Marcus Foligno, Nick Bjugstad, Nick Bonino, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Johansson, Jared Spurgeon, Nico Sturm, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt*
New Jersey – Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, Andreas Johnsson, Janne Kuokkanen, Michael McLeod, Pavel Zacha, Jack Hughes, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Jesper Bratt, Nathan Bastian, Nikita Gusev, Yegor Sharangovich, Dmitry Kulikov, Eric Comrie*
Philadelphia – Travis Sanheim*
Vegas – Alex Pietrangelo
Washington – Evgeny Kuznetsov, Ilya Samsonov, Jakub Vrana

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Sami Vatanen, New Jersey Devils

Sanheim was put into COVID protocol earlier in the day for COVID-19 and while that doesn’t necessarily mean he tested positive, he at least could have been seriously exposed. However, the NHL announced that they conducted rapid testing for all Flyers players, coaches and staff before their afternoon game with the Washington Capitals. All tests came back negative and the game was still played.

*denotes new addition

Anthony Peluso, Kristers Gudlevskis Sign In Slovakia

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HC Slovan Bratislava has made a pair of major additions to their roster as they gear up for the stretch run of the Slovakian Extraliga season. The former KHL club, now a powerhouse in the Tipos, lost a number of top young contributors when NHL and AHL training camps opened up, including forward Marian Studenic (NJD), defenseman Cam Lee (PIT), and goaltender Roman Durny (ANA). They also parted ways with former Buffalo Sabres netminder Andrei Makarov due to injury. Yet, the Andrej Meszaros-led team still sits in third place in the Extraliga, three points out of first with a game in hand. With a title in sight and holes to fill, Bratislava has turned to NHL veterans Anthony Peluso and Kristers Gudlevskis.

Peluso, 31, has signed a contract for the remainder of the 2020-21 season, the team announced. Peluso, who is making his first foray into European hockey, was undoubtedly hoping to find a new contract in North America. The former Winnipeg Jets regular, who has also been a member of the St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, and most recently the Calgary Flames, has 148 NHL games and 312 AHL games to his credit over eight pro seasons. Last year, spent with the Bakersfield Condors, was the first season in that span in which Peluso did not play on an NHL contract. Nothing short of consistent, Peluso has been a low-scoring, but physically menacing presence up front at both levels and has managed to make a career out of his grinding style. However, by joining Bratislava he may finally have some opportunity to break free of that role and show that he still has some offensive ability left in him. While the team’s press release mentions the benefits of his physical brand of hockey, they also note that he was brought in as scoring depth up front. While Peluso’s aggressive style is surely taxing, he doesn’t have as much tread on his tires as many players with his age and seasons of experience. Perhaps if he can take on a top role with Bratislava, it will open doors for an NHL contract next season.

Gudlevskis, 28, has also signed with Slovan for the remainder of the 2020-21 season after beginning the year with Villacher SV of the IceHL. Although Gudlevskis has not played in North America since 2017-18, he has been linked to an NHL comeback in every off-season since. The former Tampa Bay Lightning backup, who finished his first NHL tenure under contract with the New York Islanders, has played at a high level since moving to Europe. Posting strong numbers first in the KHL and then last season in the German DEL, Gudlevskis has shown that he is a capable keeper and at his age still has plenty of quality years left in him. However, he has never been a workhorse which may be limiting his upside in the eyes of NHL suitors. Will he get that opportunity in Bratislava? With Makarov and Durny gone, the team was forced to bring in another goaltender to pair with Tyler Parks. The long-time ECHLer has actually been stellar so far this season, but Gudlevskis’ experience may make him the go-to guy down the stretch and in the postseason. If that occurs, perhaps he will finally be able to make the jump back to North America this off-season.

East Notes: Drury, Palmieri, Blackwell, Eller

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While earlier reports have suggested that the Pittsburgh Penguins have focused on two candidates for their open general manager position in Los Angeles Kings’ Ron Hextall and Montreal Canadiens’ Scott Mellanby, another candidate, New York Rangers’ assistant general manager Chris Drury had become a longshot due to the belief that the New York Rangers wouldn’t be granted to interview with the Penguins.

However, New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that the Rangers would not stand in the way of Drury becoming a general manager, although as of Saturday afternoon, there had been no such request from Pittsburgh. The 44-year-old Drury has become one of the most sought-after assistant general managers in the league and the scribe believes that the Rangers are well aware that they will lose Drury to a GM opportunity sooner than later.

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