The question of whether Quinn Hughes will sign an extension with the Canucks to keep him in Vancouver beyond the 2026-27 season remains an open book. However, the club having the worst record in the Western Conference, with a second straight playoff miss in sight, certainly doesn’t bode well for his future.
The recent uptick in reports of teams calling Vancouver about Hughes’ availability could be more rooted in conjecture than reality. With the Canucks’ lack of hesitance under the oversight of the Patrik Allvin/Jim Rutherford front office to move on from star players, though, a trade – whether this season, over the summer, or early next year – feels more probable than possible.
There will be rampant speculation about where he ends up and how it happens until a resolution, one way or another, comes to pass. He’s a bona fide top-three defenseman in the NHL and a top-15 player outright. At a $7.85MM cap hit (for now), he’s among the most affordable truly elite talents in the league. His lack of trade protection makes him a highly movable asset, too – especially if Vancouver pulls the trigger now, before he becomes a pending unrestricted free agent.
Even if they wait until the summer or next season to make a move, they’re still in for a gargantuan return. Those hoping for a discount because of his lack of team control past 2027 will be disappointed. No team is going to be willing to put forth a competitive-enough offer without a high degree of certainty – or at least optimism – that he will be willing to sign a long-term extension.
It feels like an exceedingly rare situation for a player of Hughes’ caliber to be legitimately available for trade with at least a full season left on his deal. There’s precedent for such a move, though.
The circumstances surrounding the first Erik Karlsson blockbuster, which sent him from the Senators to the Sharks in the 2018 offseason, are strikingly similar from both the player’s and the team’s perspective. Karlsson was a year older than Hughes at the time of the deal, but their value and reputation were extremely comparable. Both had recent Norris wins and multiple nominations. Both had top-10 MVP finishes (Karlsson had three at that point compared to Hughes’ one).
Organizationally, it’s fair to draw comparisons as well. The Senators’ record in 2017-18 had tanked to the second-worst point total in the East immediately after a resurgent 2016-17 campaign that saw them reach the Eastern Conference Final. The Canucks are trending toward a similar fate, albeit two years removed from their explosive 2023-24 regular season, when they captured the Pacific Division crown and came one game away from a WCF appearance. Both teams were center-needy. Ottawa had moved the preceding year to acquire Matt Duchene, but he didn’t last long with the Sens. Beyond Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who was also dealt within a couple of years, there wasn’t any long-term depth in the system.
Vancouver now has Braeden Cootes as a hopeful top-six option after selecting him No. 15 overall this year, but there are no other names in the system who project as everyday NHLers. Behind Elias Pettersson, there are no impact options on the NHL roster aside from a high-ceiling but independent Filip Chytil.
The Canucks, then, shouldn’t have too much trouble dictating their terms if trade negotiations do get serious. When Ottawa shipped out Karlsson (plus minor-league forward Francis Perron) with a year left on his deal, their return wasn’t entirely futures-focused.
Four players – plus three draft picks (a first and two seconds) – came back in the deal. The most high-profile skater at the time was the signing rights to center Joshua Norris, who was the Sharks’ clear-cut top prospect at the time and one year removed from being a top-20 pick. Winger Rudolfs Balcers was a fifth-rounder three years prior but was coming off a 48-point rookie season in the minors and was regarded as a top-five prospect in San Jose’s pool.
The two “help-now” names in the deal were still relatively young: Chris Tierney (24) and Dylan DeMelo (25). Tierney was coming off a 40-point breakout as San Jose’s third-line center, while DeMelo had seen his stock jump in a similar manner with 20 assists in 63 games as San Jose’s third right-shot option on the blue line.
As a result, Vancouver should be asking for – and getting – the same haul of draft picks, an under-20 center with first-round pedigree, a B-tier prospect, a young middle-six center, and a promising depth lefty on defense to help shoulder the loss of Hughes from a roster management perspective. Those hoping for a discount because he’s not team-controlled for more than two years will be disappointed. Canucks fans hoping for an immediately impactful top-six center will likely be as well.
The Devils have been the most frequently speculated destination for Hughes to unite him with his brothers, Jack and Luke. The notion of them being the favorite to acquire him – at least via trade and not free agency – falls apart when considering they don’t have a Norris-caliber center, or anything close to it, in their prospect pool. Their next wave of forwards is already relatively weak, and the top name – 2023 second-rounder Lenni Hameenäho – is a winger. Dawson Mercer would draw the comparison to Tierney, a considerably higher-value one, thanks to him tracking toward a second career 50-point season. Still, the Canucks will aim for a higher-ceiling and younger needle-mover as the centerpiece of the return down the middle to anchor the years-long retool that a Hughes trade will usher in.
With that in mind, from the Canucks’ perspective, that makes the Red Wings the most attractive suitor of the teams firmly linked to Hughes so far by a significant margin. Nate Danielson is a 2023 pick – further removed from the trade than Norris was – but was a higher selection at No. 9 overall and carries a bit more value, particularly as he’s solidifying a spot on Detroit’s roster already. They don’t have a similarly-aged comparable for Tierney, but could move veteran Andrew Copp, who’s scoring at a 40-point pace this season. That would rank eighth on the Canucks and second among centers behind Pettersson. Albert Johansson is perhaps a more well-regarded prospect than DeMelo was, but he is of similar age and role. That could help balance out the value gap between present-day Copp and 2018 Tierney. The Canucks could take their pick from Detroit’s bevy of B-level prospects.
Any team looking to match or exceed that package will need to meet the prerequisite of having a center – likely selected with a top 20 pick in the last two or three years – to start with. A name like Philadelphia’s Jett Luchanko would generate significant intrigue if paired with roster players like Noah Cates and Egor Zamula, for example.
The checklist is clear: a future high-end top-six center, a quality middle-six center, a young depth defender, a promising mid-to-late-round draft pick, plus the three picks. Let the mock trades fire away.
Image courtesy of Simon Fearn-Imagn Images.
