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Auston Matthews, T.J. Brodie Sit Out Saturday With Illness

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5:45 PM: The Toronto Maple Leafs have confirmed that Matthews and T.J. Brodie will both miss Saturday’s game with illness.

5:35 PM: Auston Matthews may be forced out of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Saturday night matchup with illness, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports. The Leafs will kick off against the Pittsburgh Penguins at 7 P.M. ET – one of six games starting at that time. Matthews will be sitting out of his first game of the season if he misses Saturday night.

It’s an untimely absence for Matthews, who, with a pair of goals tonight, could have become the second-fastest Maple Leafs player to reach 25 goals in the modern era. He would have achieved the feat in 28 games, one shy of the 27 games it took Wendel Clark in 1993-94. Matthews will have another shot at the feat on Tuesday when Toronto returns home to face the New York Rangers.

Matthews is having another successful season in the NHL, although he doesn’t currently carry his usual title as the Leafs leading scorer. That instead belongs to William Nylander, who’s managed 38 points in 27 games this season. Matthews has only put up 35 points, although his NHL-leading 23 goals leads the team by a margin of nine. The 26-year-old Matthews is on a 70-goal pace through mid-December, looking to top the career-high of 60 goals that he recorded in 2021-22.

Brodie, also absent from Saturday’s matchup, is also missing his first game of the season. He has managed six points in his 27 appearances with the Leafs this season, averaging just over 22 minutes of ice time each night.

Does Toronto Need A Third Center Upgrade?

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While the Maple Leafs have done well in the standings since moving Max Domi to center last month, Jonas Siegel of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that the third center spot should still be a key priority for GM Brad Treliving as he looks to add to his roster.  Domi is up to 14 points on the season now after a slow start but it’s his defensive concerns that could be problematic come the postseason when mistakes become more magnified.  David Kampf is a better fit on the fourth line than the third so if Domi isn’t able to shore up his defensive play, adding another middleman could be required by the trade deadline in March.  Of course, Toronto is deep into LTIR so finding the money to do that and shore up their back end will be more difficult.

Maple Leafs To Activate Timothy Liljegren Off LTIR

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The Maple Leafs will welcome back an important part of their back end tonight against Pittsburgh as defenseman Timothy Liljegren told reporters including David Alter of The Hockey News (Twitter link) that he’s ready to suit up, meaning Toronto will be activating him off LTIR.

The 24-year-old has missed the last six weeks with a lower-body injury sustained against Boston in early November.  Before being injured, he was averaging over 19 minutes a night, the highest ATOI of his young career while he was seeing a fair bit of action in Toronto’s top four.

Offensively, he has been limited to just one assist but he also has 18 blocked shots and was averaging close to two minutes per night on the penalty kill before the injury.  The Maple Leafs will certainly be happy to have a more defensive-oriented presence in their lineup.  Postmedia’s Lance Hornby adds (Twitter link) that Liljegren could be partnered with Morgan Rielly tonight on the top pairing so he’ll be put into a big role quickly.  That said, with T.J. Brodie (illness) listed as questionable, those pairings could be tweaked.

In order for Toronto to officially activate Liljegren off LTIR, they will first need to open up the cap space to do so.  Today’s recall of Pontus Holmberg means they will be over the cap if they try to activate Liljegren.

They do have some options to get cap-compliant though.  The easiest one is to send a defenseman down (one of Simon Benoit, Maxime Lajoie, or William Lagesson) which would get them just enough room.  If Ryan Reaves is going to be out for more than ten games and 24 days, he could be placed on LTIR which would give them more than enough room to activate Liljegren.  Alternatively, they could transfer Mark Giordano to LTIR retroactively; he’d be eligible to return on December 23rd in that scenario.  However, he is skating and if they feel he’s ready to return before then, that might not be the best route to go.  Either way, a roster move will be coming in order to get Liljegren in the lineup tonight.

Maple Leafs Recall Pontus Holmberg

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With Ryan Reaves leaving Thursday’s game against Columbus with an injury that’s expected to keep him “out for a while” according to head coach Sheldon Keefe, the Maple Leafs had an opening up front to fill.  They’ve now filled that spot as the team announced (Twitter link) that center Pontus Holmberg has been recalled from AHL Toronto.

The 24-year-old impressed in a half-season stint in 2022-23, earning him a two-year, one-way contract that carries an AAV of $800K.  It also led to expectations that he’d be an NHL regular this season.  That hasn’t been the case, however, as Toronto is taking advantage of his waiver exemption and has shuffled him back and forth so far.

Holmberg has played in seven games with the big club this season and has been held off the scoresheet while averaging just under nine minutes a night.  However, he has been quite productive with the Marlies, tallying six goals and four assists in 11 games at the AHL level.  For now, he’s likely to serve as the 13th forward assuming Matthew Knies is able to return from his illness tonight against Pittsburgh.

Atlantic Notes: Knies, Liljegren, Larkin

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Sportsnet’s Luke Fox tweeted this morning that Toronto Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies returned to practice today but is unlikely to return to the lineup tonight as he is still not 100%. Knies has been dealing with an illness the last few days that already caused him to miss Tuesday night’s 7-3 win over the New York Rangers. Lance Hornby of Postmedia added that there is a small chance that Knies could play and that things are a bit up in the air as the Maple Leafs have had a flu bug circulating through their dressing room. Should Knies miss tonight’s game Noah Gregor would likely take his spot on the top line once again with Auston Matthews and William Nylander.

The 21-year-old Knies has had an okay start to his first full season in the NHL registering six goals and five assists in 25 games. Expectations for the Phoenix, Arizona native were quite high after a solid seven-game showing in last year’s playoffs in which Knies posted a goal and three assists. He’s been physical, good defensively and responsible with the puck. However, he has not been able to drive play, which is surprising given that he has spent time on a line with two of the best play drivers in the NHL.

In other Atlantic Division notes:

  • Lance Hornby of Postmedia tweeted that Toronto Maples Leafs defenseman Timothy Liljegren is getting close to returning to the lineup. In talking with Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe Hornby learned that the 24-year-old should only need another practice or two before being ready to return to action. Liljegren has been out of the lineup since suffering a high-ankle sprain on November 2nd that was the result of a controversial trip by Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand. Liljegren has just a single assist in ten games this season and has been averaging just shy of 18 minutes a night of ice-time for Toronto.
  • Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press is reporting that Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin skated with the team this morning in a non-contact jersey. Larkin being back on the ice is certainly a positive development after he suffered what appeared to be a devastating injury on Saturday after he was hit up high by a couple of Ottawa Senators players. Larkin lay motionless on the ice as a melee ensued around him between the two teams. Larkin suffered what is being described as an upper-body injury and although it is a very positive development to see him back on the ice so soon, there is no timeline for his return to Detroit’s lineup.

William Lagesson Will Be Game-Time Decision Monday Due To Illness

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  • Maple Leafs defenseman William Lagesson will be a game-time decision tonight against the Islanders due to illness but is likely to play, head coach Sheldon Keefe confirmed to reporters (via David Alter of The Hockey News). It’s been a tidy season for Lagesson so far, who’s been a solid injury fill-in for players such as Mark Giordano, Timothy Liljegren and Jake McCabe, who have missed significant time this season on Toronto’s back end. Signed to provide a reliable call-up option with a handful of NHL games under his belt, Lagesson has logged one assist in 14 games this season, recording a -1 rating and 49.4% even-strength Corsi share while averaging 15 minutes per game. Across 74 games with the Maple Leafs, Oilers and Canadiens dating back to the 2019-20 season, the 27-year-old is still looking for his first NHL goal.

Toronto Maple Leafs Recall Mikko Kokkonen

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Shortly before their game against the Nashville Predators, the Toronto Maple Leafs announced they had recalled defenseman Mikko Kokkonen from their AHL, the Toronto Marlies, on an emergency basis. This will mark the first time in his young career that Kokkonen has been called up to the NHL, although he will not make his debut tonight.

Kokkonen was originally a third-round selection by the Maple Leafs back in the 2019 NHL Draft, and would not make the jump to North America until the end of the season, scoring one goal and seven points for the Marlies in 11 regular season games. Before making the transition to the Maple Leafs organization, Kokkonen was a veteran of 216 games in the Finnish Liiga playing for Jukurit and the Pelicans, scoring eight goals and 54 points overall.

Last year, Kokkonen put together a mild season for the Marlies, achieving six assists in 36 games, and even spending time for Toronto’s ECHL affiliate, the Newfoundland Growlers, scoring one goal and three points altogether. Although his production was poor in the regular season, Kokkonen helped lead the Growlers to the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2023 Kelly Cup playoffs, scoring three goals and nine points in 13 games.

Starting this season back on the Marlies, Kokkonen has nearly reached his point totals from last year, already notching two goals and two assists in 17 games played. With Toronto poised to lose a few defensemen via the free agent market this upcoming summer, Kokkonen will likely need more time in the minor leagues before becoming a full-time option for the Maple Leafs blue line.

Giordano Skates Before Practice

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  • Maple Leafs defenseman Mark Giordano skated before practice today, notes David Alter of The Hockey News (Twitter link). It’s the first time he has skated since suffering a thumb injury late last month.  The 40-year-old is averaging nearly 18 minutes a night so far this season and with Toronto missing some other blueliners, they’ll certainly be looking forward to getting him back.

Joseph Woll Out Week-To-Week With High Ankle Sprain

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Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll is sidelined week-to-week with a high ankle sprain, per a team announcement Saturday morning. Woll sustained the injury in the third period of Thursday’s 4-3 win over the Senators after stopping 29 of 31 shots faced.

While this will be a longer-term absence, the Maple Leafs appear to have avoided the worst with Woll. The 25-year-old netminder could not put any weight on his left leg while leaving the ice and needed help getting to the locker room. The injury, which appeared to be initially sustained early in the third period, was aggravated on a rather innocuous-looking play with ten minutes left in regulation. Woll moved slightly across his crease to stop a sharp-angle backhand shot from Senators center Rourke Chartier and collapsed in pain after his left leg hit the post.

Unfortunately for Woll, this is not his first ankle injury – he missed significant AHL time in 2020-21 with a similar issue. He and the Leafs hope this won’t become a long-term issue as he slides into the role of Toronto’s starting netminder.

Woll, who’s signed to a bargain-bin contract carrying a $767K cap hit through 2025, has been excellent for the Leafs this season. Starting 13 of their 23 contests, he’s posted an 8-5-1 record, .916 SV% and 2.80 GAA. He’s had a handful of spectacular performances over the past few days, including making 38 saves on 39 shots in a shootout victory against the Panthers and 37 saves on 40 shots in a shootout victory against the Kraken late last month. Per MoneyPuck, Woll has stopped 7.4 goals above expected, which is good enough for 12th in the league.

While the Leafs didn’t issue a specific timeline for recovery, this should not be a months-long absence. A standard high-ankle sprain recovery timeline for athletes is in the four-to-six-week range.

That means it’s Ilya Samsonov’s crease again in Toronto for the next month or so. After guiding the Leafs to their first playoff series win in nearly two decades, he’s struggled mightily in 2023-24. Through ten starts, Samsonov has a .878 SV% and 3.58 GAA – despite a decent record of 4-1-3, he hasn’t been nearly good enough after posting a career-high .919 SV% in 40 starts last season. He has not played since their 4-3 overtime loss to the Blackhawks on November 24 and was not dressed for Thursday’s game against the Senators, as he’s been sidelined with an illness since the beginning of the month.

The Leafs did not announce a corresponding roster move along with Woll’s injury, suggesting that Samsonov is healthy enough to at least dress for tonight’s game against the Predators. If he’s not fit enough to start, 33-year-old Martin Jones will make his first Maple Leafs start after clearing waivers during preseason. He stopped nine of ten shots faced in relief against Ottawa.

Jones, 33, signed a one-year pact with the Maple Leafs in August to provide competition for the backup role with Woll heading into camp. He’s struggled in brief AHL action this season, his first in a decade, posting a .870 SV% in five games. He’s posted a save percentage below the NHL average in five straight seasons, although he did start 42 games for the Kraken last season, his highest figure since the 2018-19 campaign.

While Toronto would prefer to keep him in the minors for development purposes, 22-year-old Dennis Hildeby has been excellent for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies and is available for recall. The 2022 fourth-round pick has a 1.89 GAA, .925 SV% and two shutouts in his first full season in North America.

Maple Leafs Have Shown Interest In Rasmus Ristolainen

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Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is now healthy after missing the first 20 games of the season with a lower-body injury. The Maple Leafs have shown interest in the 29-year-old in their efforts to add to their blueline, reports Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

The 2013 eighth-overall pick has never been a beacon of defensive acumen throughout his 687 games with the Sabres and Flyers. However, his advanced defensive metrics saw major improvement last season, bringing his on-ice value closer to what you’d expect from a player carrying a $5.1MM cap hit.

After sitting in the bottom tenth percentile of overall even-strength defensive impact during the end of his time in Buffalo and his first season with the Flyers after a 2021 trade, Ristolainen’s defensive play rocketed up to the 87th percentile of all NHL defenders, per wins against replacement data from public analyst Patrick Bacon. His pairing with Nick Seeler last season put up remarkable defensive numbers, allowing less than two expected goals against per 60 minutes on an otherwise defensively weak Flyers team, per MoneyPuck.

In a small sample this season, the trend looks to continue. His partner since returning from injury has been veteran Marc Staal, and the two have controlled a staggering 70.3% of expected goals together – the third-best of any defense pairing this season with at least 30 minutes played together.

That being said, this increase in defensive impact has also come with a significant decrease in usage. In 2021-22, his first season in Philadelphia, Ristolainen logged nearly 19 minutes per game at even strength. Last season, when his possession quality numbers spiked, that number dropped to nearly 16 minutes per game. This year, he’s averaging just 14:30 per game at even strength through five games.

Needless to say, it’s apparent Ristolainen’s sudden increase in value is a little bit of smoke and mirrors. He’s putting up these numbers against much easier competition than the minutes he shouldered early on in his career. His analytics suggest he can be a high-end third-pair defenseman but not much more. Given he’s played a similarly reduced role this season and has just one assist since returning from injury, it doesn’t make a ton of sense for a cap-strapped team such as Toronto to take on his inflated cap hit, which runs through 2027.

Considering the Flyers aren’t in a position to offload assets for less than market value, a trade makes even less sense for the Maple Leafs, given the significant return they’d have to put on the table. As Friedman notes, the Flyers are playing decent hockey, sitting ninth in the Eastern Conference with a .560 points percentage and remaining in the playoff race as the holiday season rolls around. That’s much better than anyone expected, and as such, Friedman doesn’t believe the Flyers are actively shopping Ristolainen.

While having T.J. Brodie, Timothy Liljegren, and Ristolainen would be a strong complement of right-side defenders, the Maple Leafs simply don’t have the financial flexibility to make a Ristolainen deal worth it for the limited role he would play – or, at least, the limited role he should play to be effective. Limiting chances against during 5-on-5 play is an area of need for Toronto (they’re below the league average in that area), but there are better targets to pursue that can shoulder more minutes with more success.

Take Calgary Flames pending UFA Chris Tanev, for example, as a better bet to improve the team’s defensive play while shouldering over 20 minutes per game. They’ve demonstrated interest in him as well, and he’s higher on their wish list by all accounts. As Friedman also mentions, the Maple Leafs would make a Tanev deal with the confidence that they can extend him given his hometown roots and his connection with ex-Flames and current Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving.

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