Will Mitch Marner Reach Free Agency This Summer?
Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner is just three months away from becoming an unrestricted free agent, and with each passing day, the likelihood that he will test the market increases. But will he choose to leave the only NHL team he has ever played for? Only Marner knows the answer, but many factors are involved in this complicated situation. Many people will point to earning potential as the main factor in why Marner might test free agency, but there are personal and professional reasons why he might feel the time is right to look elsewhere.
As Marner showed during his last contract negotiations in 2019, he and his agent were willing to be patient in getting their number. Those negotiations spilled well into September before the 27-year-old signed a six-year, $65.358MM contract extension. An interesting note from those discussions was that Marner received several offer sheets from other teams at the time but did not entertain those offers as he prioritized staying with Toronto. This time around, Marner can get any NHL team involved in negotiations if he waits until July 1, which should lead to loftier contract demands on a longer term. It’s worth noting that Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, has a history of bringing clients right to the deadline when negotiating (see William Nylander).
Marner’s current AAV of just under $11MM represented 13.37% of the NHL salary cap at the time, and with the rising cap, it would not be unreasonable for him to ask for the same number as a UFA. If he did, he would be looking at a contract with a cap hit of $12.77MM, a tick lower than teammate Auston Matthews‘ cap hit of $13.25MM. For context, Matthews’ contract represented 15.07% of the salary cap when he signed it. Marner would be taking a smaller slice of the pie.
Matthews and Nylander have both signed pricey extensions. While Marner is undoubtedly a game-changer, it would be tough to commit to those three once again, given that they haven’t advanced past the second round of the playoffs, which hinders salary cap flexibility. There is a fair argument that you pay your stars and figure out the depth as you go, but eventually, those depth players also need to get paid, as Toronto has found out over the last few years. The Maple Leafs don’t have a lot of help coming from their farm system, evidenced by their recent ranking as the 28th-best prospect pool in the NHL (per Scott Wheeler of The Athletic), which means they will need to make trades or sign players in free agency to fill out their depth. If they have tied up 40% of their cap space in three players, adding free agents or taking chances on players who underperform but have upside will become increasingly challenging – not to mention re-signing pending RFA Matthew Knies or former captain John Tavares.
Marner is from and knows the fishbowl that is the Greater Toronto Area. When the team wins, the players are treated as heroes; however, the opposite can be true when the team drops games. The last sentence is especially relevant in the playoffs, where the Maple Leafs have suffered through years of postseason disappointments. If Toronto endures another early playoff exit, Marner could be tempted to leave Toronto and try to win elsewhere. In the past, Marner has dealt with heavy criticism from fans and media in Toronto, which could push him to seek a less intense market or one where he could enjoy some anonymity away from the rink. The pressure of playing in a Canadian market is well documented, and it can create fatigue, particularly for a player who has spent his entire career in that environment.
Former Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas was close to Marner in Toronto. Now Brad Treliving has taken over with Dubas in Pittsburgh, and it’s hard to say whether Marner will have the same loyalty during negotiations. Some folks in Pittsburgh have speculated that Dubas and the Penguins will make a run at signing Marner this summer, but given where Pittsburgh is in their retooling, it’s hard to see them adding a player of Marner’s caliber just yet. The Penguins are still a few years from being ready to contend for a playoff spot and likely don’t look desirable to Marner outside of his relationships with Dubas and Penguins captain Sidney Crosby.
Yet Marner has spent his entire professional career with the Leafs and his whole playing career in Canada. Marner played junior hockey in nearby London and has not lived more than a few hours from the GTA. Although athletes often move away from their hometowns, they typically don’t begin this process when nearing 30. This is not to say it doesn’t happen; it’s just unusual.
With a rising cap, plenty of teams can afford Marner, but how many can offer a better situation than Marner currently has in Toronto? Sure, Buffalo and Pittsburgh could afford him, but the Sabres haven’t made the playoffs in nearly a decade and a half, and Pittsburgh is retooling and likely won’t field a winner for another few years.
San Jose could make a compelling pitch, as Marner would have a chance to play with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. But Marner already has talented former top picks to play with and has the added comforts of home and familiarity. Carolina will be another interested party, but it seems like an unlikely destination, given that Marner reportedly turned down a trade to the Hurricanes a few weeks ago.
Toronto remains very much inside its competitive window with a core that still includes Matthews, Nylander, Morgan Rielly and company. And while the core has not had much playoff success, winning just one series ever, they have been a terrific regular season team for nearly a decade. The great teams almost always suffer heartbreak in the postseason before they figure out how to win when it matters, and the Maple Leafs could be a team that does that if Marner remains along for the ride. Toronto has most of their squad already locked in to return next season and could get a couple of runs at the Stanley Cup with this group.
Toronto has arguably overpaid all its stars over the past decade and has struggled to get players to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs. In fairness to Toronto’s management, if the Maple Leafs didn’t step up and pay their stars, someone else would have. The case is the same with Marner; if he reaches the market, another team will meet his asking price. It is the inevitability of unrestricted free agency, and the Maple Leafs will have to get close to Marner’s price if they want to keep him.
Plenty of NHL players have found out the hard way that the grass isn’t always greener with a new team, and those free-agent dollars can sometimes become an anchor that brings a player down. The familiarity of playing in your hometown for tens of millions of dollars and not having to start over in a new city feels as though it should be enough to keep Marner in Toronto. So, too, does the personal side of things, as players prefer playing closer to home as they age and begin having families.
Still, each passing day ultimately narrows the possibility of a return just a little bit more. However, the Maple Leafs remain the favorite to sign Marner long-term, as the allure of chasing a Stanley Cup with his hometown team will be too much to pass up.
Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.
Mark LaForest Passes Away At Age 62
In a heartfelt announcement, the Toronto Maple Leafs reported that former goaltender Mark LaForest, known as “Trees,” had passed away at the age of 62.
The Welland, Ontario native began his major junior career with the OHL’s Niagara Falls Flyers for the 1981-82 season and stayed with the team through their relocation a year later, becoming the North Bay Centennials. Unfortunately, LaForest went undrafted in the NHL after a two-year stint in the OHL. Still, he managed to land a multi-year agreement from the Detroit Red Wings as a free agent.
His first two years in the Red Wings organization were spent in the minor leagues. LaForest appeared in 18 games for Detroit’s AHL affiliate at the time, the Adirondack Red Wings, and their then-IHL affiliate, the Kalamazoo Wings. It wasn’t until the 1985-86 season that LaForest got his start in the NHL with Detroit, posting a 4-21-0 record in 28 games with a 4.96 GAA and .845 SV%. With the arrival of Glen Hanlon the following season, LaForest was limited to five NHL contests for the 1986-87 campaign.
Without a path forward in Detroit, the Red Wings traded LaForest to the Philadelphia Flyers for a second-round pick at the 1987 NHL Draft. He earned the most playing time of his career with the Flyers, managing a 10-16-4 record from 1987 to 1989 with a 3.91 GAA and .873 SV%. Philadelphia traded LaForest across Lake Ontario from his hometown, joining the Maple Leafs for the 1989-90 season.
He began the campaign with Toronto’s AHL affiliate, the Newmarket Saints, contributing a .905 SV% in 10 games. Fortunately, the Maple Leafs recalled LaForest relatively quickly that season for a three-goalie tandem, and he finished the campaign with a 9-14-0 record, 3.89 GAA, and .886 SV%. LaForest spent several years in the New York Rangers’ organization before being selected by the Ottawa Senators in the 1992 NHL Expansion Draft.
Unfortunately, LaForest wouldn’t return to the NHL until the 1993-94 campaign after spending a year with Ottawa’s AHL affiliate, the New Haven Senators. He was featured in five games for the Senators that season, with his last start coming on March 15, 1994. The last goal scored against him was from Jari Kurri, assisted by Wayne Gretzky and Tony Granato.
LaForest spent another few seasons in the IHL and AHL before finally hanging up his skates after the 1996-97 campaign. He remained active in his community and appeared at several Flyers and Maple Leafs alumni events.
PHR sends our condolences to LaForest’s family, friends, and former teammates.
Ryan Kirwan Signs Two-Year Deal With Marlies
The Toronto organizations got a little deeper Saturday evening, when the AHL’s Toronto Marlies agreed to a two-year contract with Arizona State University senior Ryan Kirwan. The deal will officially begin in the 2025-26 season, with Kirwan finishing out this year on a professional try-out with the Marlies.
Kirwan was the top scorer for the Sun Devils this season, leading the team with 26 goals and 39 points in 37 games. It was a true breakout performance for the six-foot-two, 200-pound winger who had spent his last three seasons at Penn State University. He couldn’t find the same scoring groove at with the Nittay Lions – twice netting 13 goals and 26 points in 36 games; split by one season of just 17 points in 28 games. He was in need of a change of scenery, and found a proper fit with the ever-burgeoning Arizona State.
Kirwan was a top youth hockey prospect. He made the Avon Old Farms prep roster directly out of AA in his 15U season, and managed a dazzling 101 points in 71 games with Little Caesers in his 16U campaign. Those performances earned him a first-round selection in the 2018 USHL Futures Draft. He was immediately impactful in the junior league – netting 25 goals and 41 points in 50 games as a rookie, and 21 goals and 37 points in year two. Kirwan benefited from a physical profile that was a step more mature than his peers – and it’s likely that difference that made college a challenging scene. But he got his feet under him this season – while holding on to strong goal-scoring throughout. Kirwan will bring a stalky build, glued-on puck control, and a hard shot to the Marlies lineup starting in April.
Reaves Reports To Marlies
- After clearing waivers on trade deadline day nearly three weeks ago, Maple Leafs winger Ryan Reaves reported to the Marlies on Tuesday and skated with the team for the first time, notes Nick Barden of The Hockey News. The 38-year-old didn’t see much action with the big club this season, playing in just 35 games, logging less than eight minutes a night when he did suit up while only collecting two assists and 103 hits. It’s unclear if Reaves will actually play with the Marlies or if he’s just going to practice with them. Reaves last saw action in the AHL back in 2010-11 with Peoria, the affiliate of St. Louis at the time.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Luke Haymes
The Toronto Maple Leafs have again tapped into the collegiate free-agent market. Yesterday evening, the Maple Leafs announced they’ve signed center Luke Haymes to a two-year contract while also announcing he’ll finish the 2024-25 campaign on an amateur tryout agreement with their AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies.
Haymes recently wrapped up a three-year career with Dartmouth College of the NCAA’s ECAC Hockey Conference. He finished his collegiate career with 41 goals and 70 points in 83 games and a -17 rating. Haymes had begun drawing NHL interest last season after his breakout sophomore campaign.
In all fairness to Haymes, his career -17 rating can be inferred as a team statistic rather than an individual one. Dartmouth finished with a record of 5-24-1 in Haymes’s rookie year during the 2022-23 NCAA campaign, finishing last in the conference by a healthy margin. The team finished remarkably better in his sophomore season, finishing fourth in the conference with a 13-10-9 record. The better team finish was evidenced in Haymes’s stat line, scoring 18 goals and 18 assists in 31 games with a +2 rating.
Dartmouth continued to improve this season, finishing with an 18-13-2 record. Unfortunately, Haymes lost a few games due to injury, finishing the year with 12 goals and 18 points in 22 games. The Big Green made another ECAC Hockey tournament push but failed to reach beyond the semifinals for another consecutive season.
Haymes can play in meaningful hockey once he plays his first contest with the Marlies. The team is poised for playoff positioning in the AHL’s North Division with a 32-20-3-6 record through 61 contests. They’ll have a competitive battle with the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters for third place in the division over the last handful of games in the regular season.
Maple Leafs Sign John Prokop To Entry-Level Deal
10:21 a.m.: The Maple Leafs confirmed they’ve signed Prokop to an ELC for 2025-26 and will have him join the Marlies on a tryout for the remainder of 2024-25. PuckPedia reports his deal includes an NHL salary of $787,500, an $87,500 signing bonus, and an $85,000 minors salary for a cap hit of $875K.
9:18 a.m.: The Maple Leafs are signing undrafted free agent defenseman John Prokop to an entry-level deal, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. The rearguard, who turns 24 in May, is only eligible for a one-year contract for 2025-26.
After spending his major junior career with four different United States Hockey League clubs (Omaha, Muskegon, Green Bay, Des Moines), Prokop jumped to the collegiate ranks with Union in 2022. Since arriving with the Garnet Chargers, he’s led the team’s defensemen in scoring all three years and led the team outright in every season but 2024-25. A 6’3″, left-shot, defensively responsible blue-liner with legitimate offensive upside at the professional level, he posted 20-65–85 with a minus-five rating over 107 games with Union. It’s worth noting he managed at least 20 points in every NCAA season after never recording more than two goals or 15 points in a USHL campaign.
The Wisconsin native is likely ticketed for a role with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies next season and could even finish out the 2024-25 campaign there on a tryout. He will be a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason. Assuming the deal gets done, the Leafs will now have 28 players under contract for 2025-26, including 13 defensemen (nine on one-way deals, four on two-way deals).
At best, Prokop likely checks in as the fifth-best prospect in Toronto’s system behind 2024 first-rounder Ben Danford, Topi Niemelä, Noah Chadwick, and William Villeneuve.
Berube Notes Domi's Improved Play
Domi, a veteran of 720 games, has scored 445 points in his career, including 47 points over 80 games last season. He has added 26 points in 50 career playoff games. Domi has three years left on his contract and comes with a $3.75 MM AAV, so his improved play is a welcomed sight for the Maple Leafs as they look ahead to this year’s playoffs and beyond.
Marlies Acquire Brandon Baddock
- Before yesterday’s AHL trade deadline, the Maple Leafs’ affiliate made a move. Per a release from Chicago’s farm team in Rockford, the Marlies acquired winger Brandon Baddock in exchange for future considerations. The 29-year-old has seven points and 86 penalty minutes in 38 games this season but was often scratched due to the IceHogs having one veteran over the limit. That shouldn’t be the case for Baddock with Toronto, giving him a chance to play more down the stretch. Baddock has one career NHL game under his belt from back in the 2021-22 season.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs
Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
PHR is looking at every NHL team and giving a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2024-25 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, next up is the Maple Leafs.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Current Cap Hit: $90,148,437 (over the $88MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Matthew Knies (one year, $925K)
Knies is quickly looking like one of the better-value picks of the 2021 draft. He debuted for the Leafs late in the 2022-23 season after his sophomore campaign at the University of Minnesota and has since skated almost exclusively in top-six roles. He has 76 career points in 139 games, second in the draft among non-first rounders behind the Lightning’s J.J. Moser. Luckily for Toronto, his strong performance won’t activate any performance bonuses in his contract – all of his ELC compensation is through base salary and signing bonuses. However, that will incentivize Knies to push for more money in contract negotiations this summer after agreeing to limit his earning potential through his first few NHL seasons.
Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level
D Jani Hakanpää ($1.47MM, UFA)
F Pontus Holmberg ($800K, RFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($775K, UFA)
F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($874K, UFA)
F Nicholas Robertson ($875K, RFA)
F John Tavares ($11MM, UFA)
After his 2023-24 campaign with the Stars ended prematurely due to a knee injury, the Leafs picked up Hakanpää as a cheap shutdown option on the right side (but not without some lengthy drama). Lingering knee issues limited him to just a pair of appearances back in November, though, and it’s all but certain he won’t return this season. Holmberg likely doesn’t have a ton of room left to grow at age 26, but the versatile Swede has been a nice fit in Toronto’s bottom six this season and has even been elevated to the second line with John Tavares on brief occasions. He’s averaging north of 13 minutes per game and is encroaching on his career high in points, so he’ll likely be brought back on a low-cost deal in the $1MM range.
Lorentz has been a nice pickup after a successful training camp tryout, appearing in nearly every game for the Leafs after serving as a frequent healthy scratch for the Panthers last year. He’s scored 14 points in 63 games while leading the team’s forwards with 156 hits, so it stands to reason they’ll try to bring him back on a sub-$1MM deal. Pacioretty, also a PTO pickup, seems like he’ll be one-and-done in Toronto after continued injury troubles have limited him to 13 points in 37 games, failing to hold onto a top-six job (and posting subpar defensive metrics when doing so). Robertson requested a trade last summer and, after it didn’t come to fruition, has seen his offensive production drop slightly from last year. He could be a non-tender option if the Leafs can’t find a taker for his signing rights.
The big fish are unquestionably the duo of Marner and Tavares. The former has had a spectacular campaign and still has a chance to finally crack the 100-point mark for the first time in his career, leading the Leafs in scoring with 80 points through 64 games. He’s also been Toronto’s most-deployed forward on the penalty kill this season at 2:16 per game. Easily the Leafs’ most valuable skater this season, no extension is imminent – especially after his name was thrown out in trade talks for Mikko Rantanen at the deadline. Pending his playoff performance, Toronto will likely need to step into the $13MM range annually on a max-term deal to keep him from looking elsewhere on the open market. Tavares is still chugging along with 56 points in 58 games in his age-34 season but is in line for a multi-million dollar pay cut next season, wherever he ends up. The former captain is open to continuing negotiations down the stretch and shouldn’t exceed the $8MM threshold on what’s likely to be a three-to-four-year pact.
Signed Through 2025-26
D Matt Benning ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Calle Järnkrok ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Bobby McMann ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.35MM, UFA)
G Anthony Stolarz ($2.5MM, UFA)
Benning and Reaves won’t be brought back at the end of their deals – if they’re even still in Toronto at that point. The former hasn’t suited up for the Leafs after they acquired him from the Sharks early this season in the Timothy Liljegren trade. Toronto waived him shortly after the deal, and after there were no takers on the wire, they sent him to their AHL affiliate. The 30-year-old righty has played just 21 NHL games since the beginning of last year and has just eight points in 33 AHL games. Reaves, a last-of-his-kind enforcer, hasn’t captured an everyday role and even landed on waivers last week to open up some pre-deadline financial flexibility.
Järnkrok was a solid depth pickup for the Leafs in free agency in 2022, although injuries have significantly hampered his availability over the past two years. He just got back into the lineup this month after missing most of the year following groin surgery. He’ll be 34 next summer and could likely replicate his current AAV, likely even with a slight raise amid a rising cap, on a short-term deal. Toronto just picked up Laughton at the deadline from the Flyers, who are retaining half of his full $3MM cap hit. The consistent 30-to-40-point center likely won’t be in line for a pay cut barring a disastrous 2025-26 outing.
McMann and Stolarz are the two names likely to see considerable increases on their next deals. The former is a late bloomer, but now at age 28 has emerged as a legitimate top-nine piece. He’s scored at a 23-goal pace per 82 games over the last two seasons and could conceivably sniff the $4MM mark on his next deal. Stolarz, who will set a new career-high in starts this year and is tied for second in the league with a .920 SV%, stands to double his cap hit on a short-term deal considering how quickly salaries for 1A tandem netminders are rising.
Signed Through 2026-27
D Simon Benoit ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Brandon Carlo ($3.485MM, UFA)
F David Kämpf ($2.4MM, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($850K in 2025-26 and 2026-27, UFA)
None of the players in this group are true impact pieces outside of potentially Carlo, who the Leafs managed to snag from the rival Bruins at the deadline with a decent chunk of salary retention despite there being two years left on his deal. A longtime bona fide top-four shutdown righty in Boston, he’s the Hakanpää upgrade they were looking for and will remain under contract for Toronto at an under-market-value price. Whether his level of play holds up enough for a pay rise at age 30 in 2027 remains to be seen.
Benoit and Myers’ term means the Leafs don’t have to worry about building out their depth defense. Both will likely alternate between bottom-pairing usage and nights in the press box for the remainder of their deals. Kämpf gives Toronto security at the fourth-line center slot, but that’s a steep price tag for his meager offensive production (10 points in 52 games), even considering the pending salary cap rise and his shorthanded deployment. It’s not expensive enough to truly be classified as an anchor deal, but his deal sticks out as an inefficiency on the Leafs’ books.
Toronto Maple Leafs Activate Chris Tanev
According to a team announcement, the Toronto Maple Leafs have activated defenseman Chris Tanev from their injured reserve. Tanev’s activation was alluded to in an earlier report from David Alter of The Hockey News.
Tanev’s activation before tonight’s contest against the Florida Panthers will limit his games missed to six. His last contest came against the Boston Bruins on February 25th, when Tanev left the game after two shifts following a hit along the boards from John Beecher. The rugged blueliner was seen donning a sling after the contest.
Since he only missed a handful of games, and Toronto was already well-within playoff positioning, Tanev’s absence wasn’t crippling to the Maple Leafs but it was noticeable. PHR’s Josh Erickson summed up the areas lacking in Toronto’s game throughout Tanev’s absence, writing, “They’ve struggled to control play at 5-on-5 with a 43.7 CF%, a number Tanev’s return will undoubtedly help boost. While his raw 47.4 CF% at even strength on the year isn’t particularly impressive, he dominates shot quality over quantity and leads the team with a +8.8 expected rating and +26 actual rating.”
Although the Maple Leafs would undoubtedly prefer Tanev to participate in every game this season, his return arguably couldn’t come at a better time. Toronto will share the top spot in the Atlantic Division should they best Florida tonight, although the Panthers have the first tiebreaker. Still, with two more games against Florida remaining on the schedule after tonight, Tanev and the Maple Leafs should be locked in a heated battle down the stretch for home-ice advantage through the first two postseason rounds.