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Offseason Checklist: Tampa Bay Lightning

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks.  Next up is a look at the Lightning.

Tampa Bay came close to making it three straight Stanley Cup titles before falling to Colorado in the Final last month.  With the majority of their core still intact and their biggest offseason move already made when they sent Ryan McDonagh to Nashville to free up cap space, GM Julien BriseBois’ to-do list for the rest of the summer is fairly simple.

Re-Sign Or Replace Rutta

Part of the reason for the McDonagh deal was to free up cap space to re-sign two of their pending free agents.  One of those is defenseman Jan Rutta.  The 31-year-old has been a serviceable depth player for the Lightning over the last four seasons and played a regular role for the first time in 2021-22, suiting up in a career-best 76 games while chipping in with 18 points.  He’s coming off a two-year deal with a $1.3MM cap hit and after showing he can handle a full-time spot, he should be able to beat that on the open market.

While Tampa Bay would certainly like to keep him around and have had discussions on a new deal, BriseBois also has to consider that McDonagh’s minutes need to be replaced.  Rutta held his own playing 16 minutes a game but McDonagh logged 22.  Can Tampa Bay fill those extra minutes internally with someone like Cal Foote or will they need someone that’s capable of taking on a bigger role?  While BriseBois has stated his intention to keep and work with Philippe Myers (who came over in the McDonagh swap), it’s unlikely that they can count on much from him after the way this past season went.  If Rutta and Foote can’t cover bigger roles on the third pairing to help offset the loss of McDonagh, BriseBois may have to go for a more prominent blueliner which would certainly take them out of the running for their other UFA of note.

Re-Sign Or Replace Palat

That other UFA is Ondrej Palat.  The winger has been a regular in Tampa Bay’s lineup for most of the last decade, spending a lot of that time as a fixture in their top six.  Along the way, he has become a consistent secondary scorer, notching at least 15 goals in seven of the last nine years and dealt with injury trouble in the two he didn’t.  That type of consistency is very valuable to teams and an impressive showing in the playoffs that saw Palat finish second to only Nikita Kucherov in scoring.  That certainly bolsters his value as we approach the opening of free agency on Wednesday.  That’s good news for him but less so for the Lightning.

The 31-year-old is coming off a contract that saw him make an average of $5.3MM over the past five years.  If he gets to the open market, a similar price at a similar term is doable.  That’s one that Tampa Bay can’t afford, especially knowing they have to keep or replace Rutta as well.  Even with Brent Seabrook’s LTIR space, there isn’t enough money for Palat to receive market value and still keep or re-place Rutta.  A team-friendly contract is always an option – several have taken a bit less to re-sign in previous years – but with this likely being Palat’s last chance at a big contract, it would certainly be understandable if he wants to see what his other options might be.

If Palat winds up going elsewhere and they need to find a replacement, it wouldn’t be surprising if BriseBois looked for someone on a one-year deal.  With several key pieces in need of new contracts soon, a short-term contract would allow give them a boost now and maintain a little bit of flexibility for the 2022-23 offseason.  There will be players that don’t like what they have for long-term offers and would certainly view the Lightning as a favorable spot for a ‘pillow’ contract and going that route could give Tampa Bay a capable replacement without needing as long of a commitment.

Extension Talks

Tampa Bay has basically exclusively used short-term bridge contracts with their restricted free agents in recent years.  The reason is certainly understandable as they used the lower cost of those contracts to keep their core intact and with two Stanley Cups and a Prince of Wales Trophy in the last three years, it’s hard to say they made the wrong choice.  Going that way eventually has its consequences but with that type of recent success they’ve had, it couldn’t have gone much better.

But the consequences of that approach are only a year away.  Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak along with centers Anthony Cirelli and Ross Colton are all about to enter the final year of their respective bridge deals.  All four will have arbitration eligibility next summer.  Combined, they’ll have a cap hit of $13.675MM next season.  They will cost considerably more than that in 2023-24, likely surpassing the $20MM mark.  That’s going to result in the departure of another core player or two no matter what and BriseBois knows that.

While the Lightning could wait to work on these next summer, that’s a lot of big-ticket deals to sign in a short period of time and with arbitration hearings occurring after the bulk of unrestricted free agents have signed, getting into July with even a couple of these still pending wouldn’t be ideal.  Having the knowledge of what those players are going to cost before next June and July would be great for planning purposes while also giving those players certainly moving forward.  Are they going to get all of them signed now?  Probably not but the more they can finalize this summer, the easier it should be next summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Anthony Cirelli Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, No Timeline For How Long He'll Be Out

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  • Lightning center Anthony Cirelli underwent shoulder surgery on Tuesday, relays Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription link). He suffered an AC joint sprain on one side and a collarbone injury on the other which led to surgery being needed.  However, at this time, the team does not have a definitive timeline as to when the 24-year-old will return with GM Julien BriseBois indicating that “There’s a wide range” in terms of how long Cirelli might be out.  Cirelli had 43 points in 76 games in 2021-22 for Tampa Bay during the regular season but was limited to just eight points in 23 playoff contests with the injury likely contributing to that drop in production.

Ondrej Palat Expected To Test Free Agency

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  • When Tampa Bay freed up some cap space with the trade of Ryan McDonagh to Nashville, it was expected those savings would go towards re-signing pending UFA winger Ondrej Palat. However, Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic relays (Twitter link) that the expectation is that the 31-year-old will instead test the open market next week.  Palat is coming off a season that saw him put up 49 points in 77 games but he was much better in the playoffs for the Lightning, notching 11 goals and 10 assists in 23 contests to finish second on the team in postseason scoring which should help boost his market.  He had a $5.3MM AAV on his set-to-expire deal and should be able to land a bit more than that in free agency.

NHL Announces 2022-23 Regular Season Schedule

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The news continues to break during what’s been a busy pre-draft week. The NHL has released the full 82-game schedule for the 2022-23 campaign, marking a return to normal dates and length for the first time since 2018-19.

2022-23 will see its curtains open overseas, where the San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators will open the season at the O2 Arena in Prague, Czechia on October 7 and 8, 2022. The regular season will begin on the North American side of the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, October 11, 2022, with a classic doubleheader. The puck will drop at Madison Square Garden for an Eastern Conference Final rematch between the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers, followed by a Pacific Division showdown in Southern California between the Vegas Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings.

The Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup banner-raising ceremony will be the following night at home against the Chicago Blackhawks. The season will wrap up on April 13, 2023.

Some key events throughout the season include the 2022 Global Series in Tampere, Finland, where the Avalanche and Columbus Blue Jackets will play a pair of games on November 4 and 5, 2022. The 2023 Discover NHL Winter Classic is slated for January 2, 2023, between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins at Fenway Park, and the 2023 NHL Stadium Series is set for February 18, 2023, in Raleigh, North Carolina, where the Hurricanes will host the Washington Capitals. All-Star Weekend will be February 3-4, 2023, hosted by the Florida Panthers.

Offseason Notes: Chychrun, White, Dallas

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It’s been a while since we’ve heard Jakob Chychrun’s name atop trade rumors, especially when considering how he was viewed as one of the hottest commodities ahead of the Trade Deadline. It’s not often an under-25 defenseman with top-pairing pedigree becomes available, but the Arizona Coyotes decided not to move him just yet. That could change, however, as the Columbus Dispatch’s Brian Hedger reports that the Blue Jackets and Coyotes are talking about a deal. While he couldn’t offer Chychrun’s name specifically, he also reminds that Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen has said that the team could move their 12th overall pick at the 2022 draft in exchange for a young NHL player with term.

Chychrun certainly fits that bill, signed at just $4.6MM through 2025. It also matches up with the rumblings that Columbus is looking to add aggressively on defense, as multiple reports suggested they were in discussions with the Tampa Bay Lightning about landing Ryan McDonagh. If Arizona acquired the 12th overall selection, it would give them a jaw-dropping four first-round picks in addition to their five second-round picks.

  • There’s significant interest in soon-to-be free agent Colin White after he was placed on waivers for the purpose of a buyout today by the Ottawa Senators. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that up to 14 NHL teams have shown interest in White over the past few months, which could lead to a significant bidding war for his services once free agency opens. TSN’s Darren Dreger specifically names the Montreal Canadiens as a team that could be a fit, as general manager Kent Hughes was his agent prior to getting hired in Montreal.
  • The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta says the Dallas Stars are looking to add a significant punch at forward this offseason, specifically to add a jump to a line with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Dallas will reportedly be active on both the trade and free-agent markets, looking to be aggressive and squeeze out whatever this core has left in them to try and win a championship. Neither Benn nor Seguin, who are making above $9MM per season each, cracked the 50-point mark last year.

Latest on Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk

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There’s a significant sense around the league that teams are rushing to get their salary cap situations cleared up before the start of free agency next week. Moves like the Tampa Bay Lightning trading Ryan McDonagh to the Nashville Predators for spare change and the Minnesota Wild moving early on a Kevin Fiala deal are evidence of that.

Now, another team is joining that list of really trying to make headlines in the near future. ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reports that the Calgary Flames are making “every effort” now not only to re-sign top pending unrestricted free agent forward Johnny Gaudreau but also restricted free agent Matthew Tkachuk.

While most of the public talk has centered around Gaudreau’s status, it makes sense that general manager Brad Treliving would want to get these deals done in a short window. Playing on the same line, Gaudreau and Tkachuk helped propel each other to career seasons. The Flames are likely hoping that keeping the two together will keep their level of play from declining after this season.

Finances are also a huge part of this equation too, though. Gaudreau and Tkachuk are surely bound to take up a gigantic chunk of Calgary’s offseason spending limit, likely at least $16MM of it. With a long list of other players to re-sign and/or spots to fill via free agency, Calgary needs a clear picture of how much cash they’ll be able to devote to players like Andrew Mangiapane and Oliver Kylington while still fielding a cap-compliant squad.

With Tkachuk’s value through the roof after his 40-goal, 100-point season and Gaudreau likely able to net eight figures on the open market, Treliving faces his toughest challenge yet as GM in Calgary in order to keep this year’s Pacific Division champions at the top of the Western Conference.

Mikhail Sergachev Changes Agents

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The Tampa Bay Lightning cleared out cap space moving forward by selling off Ryan McDonagh, and now one of the biggest options on their to-do list is signing Mikhail Sergachev to a long-term extension. Heading into the final year of his current deal, the 24-year-old will be eligible to sign an extension this summer and will now be doing it with new representation.

Sergachev has joined Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey, according to Darren Dreger of TSN. Colleague Chris Johnston notes that the young defenseman is likely to sign an extension in the coming weeks.

While an agent change can sometimes bring a worry to a front office, the Lightning group is quite familiar with Milstein. He also represents Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy, two players that Tampa Bay had no trouble locking up. In fact, some might say that both Russian superstars gave the Lightning a discount of sorts–something that is a bit offset by the lack of state income tax–when they signed their current contracts, both for $9.5MM per season.

Kucherov signed an eight-year, $76MM contract just a few days after he became eligible in 2018, and Vasilevskiy took just a few weeks before signing an identical one (at least in years and total dollars) the following summer.

With McDonagh now in Nashville, there will be even more responsibility heaped on Sergachev (and fellow extension candidate Erik Cernak) in the coming years. Coming off a three-year bridge deal that carried a cap hit of $4.8MM, the young defenseman has a huge amount of leverage in any negotiation, and should see a monster number on his next deal. Not only does he sit 27th in scoring among all defensemen since he entered the league–ahead of names like Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darnell Nurse–but his current contract is set to pay out $7.2MM this season. That means a matching qualifying offer would be necessary just to keep him in 2023-24, a season which would also be his last before unrestricted free agency.

It would be difficult to create better conditions for a massive long-term extension, another reason why the team needed to clear money off the back end this summer.

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Ryan McDonagh To Nashville Predators For Philippe Myers, Grant Mismash

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Per their Twitter, the Tampa Bay Lightning confirmed that they have traded defenseman Ryan McDonagh to the Nashville Predators. In exchange, the Lightning receive defenseman Philippe Myers and forward Grant Mismash from Nashville. It doesn’t appear that any salary has been retained in the trade. With the Lightning needing to make some tough salary cap decisions if they wanted to keep a majority of their core together, one name that was rumored to be on the move was McDonagh, and GM Julien BriseBois was able to make it happen. McDonagh carries a cap hit of $6.75MM for each of the next four seasons.

In McDonagh the Predators acquire a sturdy shutdown defenseman and veteran of 783 career regular season NHL games, in addition to 185 playoff games, including Stanley Cup Championships with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021. Originally the twelfth-overall pick in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft by the Montreal Canadiens, McDonagh was traded to the New York Rangers two years later in the Scott Gomez deal. The defenseman went on to play in 516 regular season games for the Rangers, captaining the team from 2014-15 until his trade to the Lightning during the 2017-18 season. After the trade, the Predators still project to have just over $18.1MM in available salary cap space this offseason, which should be more than enough to make necessary moves and extend franchise-icon Filip Forsberg.

According to TSN’s Chris Johnston, it doesn’t appear the Lightning plan to buyout Myers’ contract (link). By keeping Myers in the fold, the Lightning still free up $4.2MM. With the departure of fellow right-shot defenseman Jan Rutta possible, Myers could serve as a replacement, having just one year left on his contract as opposed to unpredictable term and salary for Rutta. In speaking to the media, including The Athletic’s Joe Smith, BriseBois said that if the league wasn’t in a flat-cap situation, he would have never even thought of making the deal and asking McDonagh to wave his no-trade clause. Speaking of that clause, McDonagh currently carries a full no-trade clause, meaning the Lightning had to specifically seek his permission in order to make this trade, an experience BriseBois told Smith was not a pleasant one. As to replacing McDonagh, BriseBois told Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times that the plan is to elevate the role of defenseman Mikhail Sergachev and continue to fill out the defense corps. Though a different handedness, that would seem to be in line with the choice to keep Myers rather than buy him out.

With the trade, Tampa Bay ships out a left-handed defenseman for a right-handed one in Myers, however he may not be with the team for long, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman points out, the team can buyout Myers’ contract and actually receive a cap credit of $617K this season, then owe just $633K in 2023-24. Right now, Myers is under contract through the 2022-23 season at $2.5MM. Though Myers’ cap hit is certainly not bad, it is somewhat high for a team fighting for every dollar to stay under the cap ceiling. Another option for the Lightning could be to trade Myers, avoiding his cap hit this year, but if they see value in having the cap credit this year with the cap hit next year, they may be inclined to simply buy him out now. With the credit, the Lightning would in effect pick up $7.13MM in cap space they did not have at this time yesterday (link).

Atlantic Notes: Palat, Senators Priorities, Murray

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The Tampa Bay Lightning may have fallen just short in their attempt to win a third straight Stanley Cup, but that hasn’t stopped them from doubling down on some of the players that got them there, and they started earlier this week with a seven-year extension for playoff hero Nick Paul. While defenseman Ryan McDonagh could be on the move, it seems as though that move would be motivated by the team’s desire to keep another important playoff performer: Ondrej Palat. Palat is one of the Lightning’s ultimate success stories, a seventh-rounder who developed to the point of being among coach Jon Cooper’s most trusted players. Palat is a pending unrestricted free agent, and GM Julien Brisebois has already made public his desire to sign Palat to an extension.

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Joe Smith took a look (subscription link) at what a potential Palat extension could look like, and concluded that another team could very well offer Palat a long-term contract worth more than $5MM per year. But, according to Smith, even in the face of those offers “the Lightning are absolutely going to try to keep Palat.” The decision on whether he remains in Tampa “will likely rest in [Palat’s] hands” as he’ll have to decide if he’s willing to take a potentially lower offer in order to remain with the only franchise he’s ever known.

Now, for some other notes regarding teams in the Atlantic Division:

  • The Senators want to improve their team for next season, with the goal of potentially competing for a playoff spot in 2022-23. That much is no secret, and Ottawa indicated that would be their team’s direction earlier this year, when they traded a mid-round draft pick in order to acquire a veteran defenseman in Travis Hamonic. But while we know they want to improve their team, what we don’t know is exactly how they’ll go about doing so. According to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, the Senators are looking to add a “high-end winger” and a “top-four defenseman” as their main priorities for this offseason. Luckily for the Senators, there are high-end wingers and top-four defensemen on the market this summer, although acquiring them through free agency could prove to be a challenge as Ottawa has not traditionally been among the most desirable markets for free agents. The Senators have been dangling the seventh-overall pick in trade talks, though, so perhaps that pick holds the key to the Senators acquiring the players they desire.
  • Perhaps the single greatest factor the Senators have going in their favor as they seek to improve their team is their advantageous cap position. In a league where most teams are walking a salary cap tightrope, the Senators have over $20MM in projected cap space. Per Garrioch, they’d like to grow that number, and one avenue they’re considering is a move for goaltender Matt Murray. Murray is making $6.25MM against the cap for the next two seasons and the Senators already have found their number-one goalie for that time frame in Anton Forsberg. Garrioch reports that the Senators have talked about “packaging” Murray’s contract with the seventh-overall pick in order to clear his cap hit off their books. While Garrioch does note that such a scenario would need to bring the Senators a “strong return” in exchange, one does have to wonder if the cap relief trading Murray would provide could be considered part of a satisfactory “strong return.”

Amir Miftakhov Clears Unconditional Waivers

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Sunday: Miftakhov has cleared waivers, Friedman reports.

Saturday: Today is the first day that players can be placed on unconditional waivers for the purposes of buying out a contract.  There is a player on unconditional waivers today, albeit for another reason, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the Lightning have placed goaltender Amir Miftakhov on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract.

The 22-year-old was a sixth-round pick of Tampa Bay back in 2020 (186th overall) after some promising performances in the VHL, a second-tier league in Russia.  After spending 2020-21 between the KHL and VHL, the Lightning had seen enough to give Miftakhov a three-year, entry-level deal with an eye on trying to develop him as a goalie of the future.

However, things didn’t go well in Miftakhov’s first season in North America.  He split his time between AHL Syracuse and ECHL Orlando and while he had a decent showing in five games with the Solar Bears, the same couldn’t be said for how he performed with the Crunch.  He posted a save percentage of just .891 along with a GAA of 3.03 in 22 games and was relegated to third-string status in the playoffs behind veteran Maxime Lagace and prospect Hugo Alnefelt.  That appears to be enough for the two sides to agree that parting ways is the best approach.

Teams will have until 1 PM CT on Saturday if they want to place a claim on Miftakhov if they believe he’s worthy of some development in the minors.  Assuming the goalie clears, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent and at this point, returning to play back home in Russia is a likely scenario.  If his deal is terminated, Alnefelt will be the only Tampa Bay goalie signed for next season beyond their NHL tandem of Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brian Elliott.

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