Are NHL Super Teams Possible?
Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that the idea of an NHL super team in the mold of the new NBA craze is simply unattainable due to the economics and setup of the league. Lambert shows that while an NBA team can sign a young, future hall of fame player who can immediately impact a team, hockey does not have the same luxury. Lambert uses Sidney Crosby as an example. Should Crosby end up in Detroit, his impact would be felt, but would not guarantee Detroit as a Cup contender. Instead, it would take other pieces to solidify such a dominating force.
The setup of the sports are different as well. Lambert shows that a Pittsburgh team comprised of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang struggled at times to get past teams that were not nearly as deep with talent. Lambert even went as as far to show “death lineups” of players who dominated while on the same side. Though they wore the same jerseys, their impact was different because in hockey, it’s rare that all of those players will appear on the ice at the exact same time. Of those six death lineups, five won a Cup. Only the 2012-13 Bruins, who lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Blackhawks (also another death lineup), fell short.
Lambert doesn’t discount that having eight high end, perennial all-star caliber players could heavily favor a team. It’s just that the restrictive nature of the salary cap prevents it from happening. At best, Lambert writes, a team can have four or five high end players at a time.
Perhaps the bigger issue revolves around finances and marketing.
The financial structure of the league is significantly different than the NBA. Lambert shows that the league revenues have remained flat, and shows a gate revenue that is all but maxed out. The NBA, on the other hand, has seen a significant increase in revenue and also enjoy lucrative television deals. Additionally, the Canadian dollar, according to a Globe and Mail report, may have cost the NHL nearly $200MM in revenue. Though the numbers are from 2014, Fox Sports wrote up a report, along with graphics, that show the stark discrepancy in revenue between the NHL and other major sports.
Where Lambert really hits the point home is how the sport is marketed. It’s no secret that hockey is a niche sport. As parity has reigned during the salary cap era, the differences between a top team and a bottom feeder, while sometimes large, still afford the ability for an upset to occur.
Whether it’s fair or unfair, the lesser known teams in a Stanley Cup Final could be horrendous for the league as well. The idea of a Tampa Bay-San Jose Final this year would have wreaked havoc on ratings. Even though both teams boast high caliber players, they are both “non-traditional” markets that outside of their respective area, would generate little interest. Contrast that with a possible Pittsburgh-Chicago Final and it underscores the issue with the NHL: lack of familiarity in non-established markets.
As Lambert pointed out, Steph Curry jerseys are everywhere and his presence on television is a must see event. Ovechkin? Crosby? McDavid? Toews? Sure, hockey fans know them. But ask the average sports fan where Conor McDavid plays, and you might get a blank stare. Some might struggle to even say who he is.
Until revenues explode and familiarity is bred, superteams, whether they are a good or bad thing, are just not possible with the structure of today’s NHL.
Red Wings Snapshots: Vanek, Cholowski
Though many blasted the term and money used to re-sign Darren Helm, and the idea to bring Steve Ott into the fold, there were some who appreciated the Detroit Red Wings signing of Thomas Vanek. While the Red Wings addressed a need by signing center Frans Nielsen to a six-year deal, the signing of Vanek was one that many labeled as a low risk, high reward. Vanek, who was bought out by Minnesota, inked a one-year, $2.6MM contract and is expected to boost a moribund Red Wings power play that struggled throughout the season and into the playoffs.
There is also a faction of the Wings fan base that believes Vanek prevents a young forward, namely Andreas Athanasiou or Anthony Mantha, from getting a full time spot on the roster. To answer this question and others, MLive’s Tom Mitsos quantified Vanek’s performance and possible future performance by using advanced stats. Mitsos found that as many have pointed out, Vanek appears to be on the downside of his career. Besides the obvious slide in goals, points, and being bought out by his previous team, the advanced measures of his ability don’t bode well for the 32-year-old forward.
Mitsos lists Vanek’s Corsi For percentage as the first indicator. Vanek registered a CF% of 45.45, which is considered below average in terms of puck possession metrics. Further, Mitsos reveals a similar comparison when looking at it from a three year glance. Mitsos also points out that current forward Tomas Tatar, who has been speculated as a possible trade target, has Vanek beaten in almost every major category.
That’s not good, especially since the Red Wings are looking to move pieces to acquire a #1 defenseman, something the team has lacked for nearly five seasons. Moving a player who outpaces another who looks to be a one-year rental hardly helps the long term health of a franchise.
Mitsos concludes that should Vanek tally 20 goals this upcoming season, it would go a long way in justifying the signing. But a deeper statistical dive shows exactly what many suspected: Vanek’s better years are far behind him.
Other Red Wings news:
- 2016 first round draft pick Dennis Cholowski has a lot to like about him writes MLive’s Brendan Savage. The Red Wings front office labeled him an “elite thinker” on the ice, and also spoke highly of his puck possession and offensive abilities. Cholowski is headed to St. Cloud State where he’s expected to develop into a top four defenseman the Red Wings can rely on to produce points. While Ken Holland cautioned fans that the Wings would take their time developing Cholowski, there’s no question their eyes are glued to the young defenseman as a future solution to their current woes on the blue line.
Snapshots: Matthews; Tavares; Senators
Number one draft pick Auston Matthews remains unsigned by the Toronto Maple Leafs, despite the rigidity of an entry level contract. As reported by Toronto Star writer Kevin McGran, and touched on by us earlier, the signing delay may stem from Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello’s aversion to contract bonuses. Entry level contracts are fairly straightforward, with base salary capped at $925,000. The wiggle room comes in the form of performance bonuses.
The CBA allows for two types of ELC bonuses, creatively called Individual “A” and “B” bonuses. “A” Bonuses are capped at an aggregate total of $850K, and “B” bonuses are capped at an aggregate total of $2MM. Thus, a player could theoretically earn up to $3.77MM in base salary and bonuses.
For reference, the last two number one picks—Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Florida’s Aaron Ekblad—received the max base salary and bonuses available. Patrik Laine, the number two pick this year, received a full base salary and $2.65MM in potential bonuses while the third pick Pierre-Luc Dubois received a full base salary and $2.5MM in potential bonuses.
Other notes around the league:
- The New York Islanders hope to sign John Tavares to an extension next summer, according to GM Garth Snow. The Islanders captain has two more years left on his deal that pays him $5.5MM a year. GM Snow would want to avoid the controversy and uncertainty that surrounded Steven Stamkos and the Tampa Bay Lightning this summer. Unless Tavares’s play declines significantly, the centerman is in line for a hefty raise.
- Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion spoke to the media today regarding signing Chris Kelly and other future transactions. Dorion is confident that the Sens will get a deal done with RFAs Cody Ceci and Mike Hoffman. Hoffman elected for salary arbitration—his second time in two years—while Ceci is not yet eligible. Dorion also intimated that the Senators will not pursue any more free agents, which corroborates the popular conception that the team operates under a restrictive internal budget.
Snapshots: Islanders, Dumba, Fischer, Penguins
The Islanders are likely finished with their free agent shopping this offseason, reports Newsday’s Arthur Staple. The team still has to re-sign Ryan Strome, Alan Quine, and Scott Mayfield which should pretty well eat up the remainder of the roughly $4.9MM they have in cap space, as per Cap Friendly.
Still from Staple, he notes that the Islanders currently have a bit of a goalie logjam with Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss, and J-F Berube all on one-way contracts. That situation isn’t likely to be resolved until training camp and further throwing a wrench into that battle is the fact that Halak and Greiss are two of the three netminders for Team Europe at the upcoming World Cup and won’t be with the team most of the preseason. That should allow Berube to see a lot of exhibition action for the Isles.
More news and notes from around the league:
- In a radio interview this morning and transcribed by Chris Nichols of Today’s Slapshot, Minnesota GM Chuck Fletcher characterized discussions with RFA defenseman Mathew Dumba as fine and that they will “be able to come up with a deal here sometime in the next few weeks”. The 21 year old Dumba had 10 goals and 16 assists in 81 games with the Wild last season.
- Arizona prospect Christian Fischer could pose an interesting dilemma for the Coyotes this coming season, writes Craig Morgan of ArizonaSports.com. Fischer made a strong impression at development camp and if he doesn’t crack Arizona’s roster, the 19 year old has the option of being assigned back to junior or to the AHL as he wasn’t drafted out of the CHL and there are certainly pros and cons to each route.
- Pittsburgh has spent $1.65MM in guaranteed money for seven depth offseason additions, a trend that reflects the rising AHL salaries across the league, writes Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Of course, the trade-off for giving those players a higher minor league salary is the willingness for them to take an NHL salary for $575K, the league minimum which provides teams like the Penguins greater salary cap flexibility with the players towards the end of their rosters.
Snapshots: Hedman, McRae, Predators
Even with the recent decision in the NBA of Kevin Durant heading to the Golden State Warriors to create a ‘super-team’, it’s still not very often that you see superstars take less money to stay in a place they feel comfortable. That’s what happened the past two weeks, as both Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman re-signed for eight years (and considerably less money than expected) with the Tampa Bay Lightning, in part because of their personal bond. When talking to Pierre LeBrun of ESPN, Stamkos said just as much:
“Victor and I are extremely close friends. We came up in this organization as 18-year-old kids. To say that we’re going to be together for the long run, and on one team, that’s something special. A big reason why both of us stuck around is because of the relationship that we have as teammates and as friends as well.”
To see two superstars leave some money on the table and not even hit free agency is a rare one indeed in today’s sporting world, but we may be about to catch it again in Calgary. Pending RFAs Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan have expressed a similar sentiment, and hope to be together for ‘the next ten years’. Here’s more from around the league:
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have brought in former London Knight general manager Basil McRae to become their director of player personnel, according to a team release. After capturing the 2016 Memorial Cup, McRae will return to the club he worked for in 2013-14 this time in a more advanced role. With the signing, the Blue Jackets have also announced two promotions, Ville Siren moves from pro scout to director of amateur scouting, and Josef Boumedienne moves from pro scout to director of European scouting.
- After being knocked out in the second round by the San Jose Sharks, the Nashville Predators came into the offseason with the plan to get faster on the back end. Buying out Barret Jackman after just his first year with the club was the first move towards that end, and bringing in Yannick Weber to replace him was the next. For what it’s worth, Weber seems to have turned down more money in Europe to stay in the NHL, according to Adam Vignan of the Tennessean. Weber took a minimum deal of $575K to secure an NHL job with Nashville.
- Flyers prospect Philippe Myers underwent hip surgery on Wednesday, and will not be participating in the Philadelphia development camp, according to GM Ron Hextall. Myers went undrafted out of Rouyn-Noranda in 2014-15, but exploded onto the scene last season with 45 points from the back end. He’ll now try and work his way back from surgery to return to the Flyers’ future plans.
Atlantic Snapshots: Matthews, Hoffman, Red Wings, Panthers
Auston Matthews is participating this week in his first development camp as a member of the Maple Leafs. Usually, it’s around this time that a first overall pick gets his entry level contract signed but as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston writes, there’s a bit of a unique situation when it comes to getting this particular deal done.
Toronto GM Lou Lamoriello is strongly opposed to putting performances bonuses in contracts, refusing to include them in any of his deals with New Jersey. While Mitch Marner’s entry level deal does contain bonuses, they were already in the framework of contract talks when Lamoriello joined the Leafs last season so their inclusion were honored when the new GM took over the talks.
Players selected with the first overall pick typically receive the maximum amount of bonuses allowable: Schedule ‘A’ bonuses worth $850K which are set in the CBA and are tied to individual performance and $2MM in Schedule ‘B’ bonuses which are tied to league-wide performance standards.
While no one expects there to be much difficulty in terms of getting a deal done, it will certainly be interesting to see how much Lamoriello is willing to bend his own policy to get Matthews signed.
Other news and notes from the Atlantic Division:
- Ottawa winger Mike Hoffman is expected to file for arbitration on Tuesday, reports Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen. Last season, Hoffman led the Senators with 29 goals and recorded 59 points in 78 games. Hoffman went through the arbitration process last season and was awarded a $2MM salary, a considerable bargain given his production.
- Detroit made Matt Martin a frontloaded four year, $10MM offer early on in free agency, writes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. After he declined their offer to sign a four year, $10MM pact with Toronto, they quickly turned around and signed Steve Ott for one year and $800K. They’ll likely need to use those savings towards inking RFA’s Danny DeKeyser and Petr Mrazek, who are also strong candidates to file for arbitration tomorrow.
- The Panthers have lost four regular defensemen from last season via trades and free agency but Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy suggests their new look blueline should at least equal, if not improve upon the play of their predecessors and that their offseason moves have them well positioned to contend for another division title next season.
Central Snapshots: Staal, Roslovic, Perron
The Wild are hoping that Eric Staal, their biggest free agent acquisition on Friday, can buck the recent trend of offensive players struggling upon arriving in Minnesota, writes Michael Russo of the Star-Tribune. Russo notes that GM Chuck Fletcher hasn’t been shy in adding big name players since he took over in 2009 but there have been more misses than hits out of that group.
While Fletcher hopes that Staal will be able to give the offense a boost, he acknowledges that young players such as Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle will need to take another step forward in order to help take the Wild to the next level.
Fletcher also noted that the trade market is also quite active, telling Russo that “I don’t think I’ve ever spoken to more managers more often than I have the past few weeks.”
More from the Central Division:
- Still with the Wild, pending RFA Jordan Schroeder is expected to file for arbitration by Tuesday’s deadline, Russo tweets. Schroeder had two goals and two assists in 24 games with Minnesota last season.
- Winnipeg prospect Jack Roslovic intends to return to college for his sophomore season, reports Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun. Roslovic’s junior rights were traded to OHL London a couple of weeks ago at the draft, fueling speculation that he would forego his college eligibility to join the Knights instead. Roslovic was a first round pick of the Jets (25th overall) in 2015.
- Last season, the Blues considered trading for David Perron before he wound up being dealt to Anaheim, writes Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Perron’s success with the Ducks only added to the Blues’ interest in bringing back their former first rounder and they were quickly able to come to terms on Friday on a two year deal. While there was concern when St. Louis traded Perron away three years ago that he couldn’t fit in Ken Hitchcock’s system, the veteran bench boss played a key role in getting a deal done as he encouraged GM Doug Armstrong to bring him back to the fold.
Snapshots: Russell, Vesey, Forsling
After rumors swirled the past two days indicating that the Maple Leafs had offered a contract to free agent defenseman Kris Russell, agent Allain Roy took to Twitter to set the record straight: “Reports of Kris Russell turning down any offer from the Maple Leafs are false. Simply rumors…” The former member of the Dallas Stars is still available as of Sunday evening, and ranked 12th on our Top 50 UFA list last month. Here is some more news from around the league:
- As our own Brett Barrett outlined this morning, Harvard grad Jimmy Vesey is set to wait until August 15th when he will become an unrestricted free agent. Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe opines that both Pittsburgh and Chicago will also make offers to the 23-year old should he make it that far. He has stated that he wants to stay in his native north east region.
- Scott Powers of The Athletic tells us that Blackhawks’ prospect Gustav Forsling is headed back to Sweden for the 2016-17 season if he doesn’t make the NHL club out of camp. After signing an ELC in March, Forsling was thought to have a decent shot at making the team this year, but with recent signings Brian Campbell and Michal Rozsival coming into the fold (or, in Rozsival’s case back into), it seems much less probable.
Metropolitan Notes: Hall, Cullen, Islanders
While Taylor Hall will be joining a new team in a new conference as a result of his trade to New Jersey on Wednesday, he will at least be reunited with a familiar face in Adam Henrique, writes Chris Ryan of NJ.com. The two played together, often on the same line with the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires from 2007-2010. Hall and Henrique will likely get to play together again with the Devils on a new look top line next season.
More from the Metropolitan Division:
- The Penguins are still waiting to hear back whether or not C Matt Cullen will be re-signing them, according to Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Pittsburgh hasn’t given him a deadline to make his decision. Cullen is ranked 38th on our Top 50 UFA list.
- Ownership of the New York Islanders officially changed hands yesterday as Scott Malkin and Jon Ledecky took over from Charles Wang, who retains a minority ownership in the team. Despite the change in team control, the team will not be making any changes behind the bench or in management, writes Arthur Staple of Newsday. The new owners aren’t wasting any time either as Malkin spoke to Andrew Ladd during his visit on Thursday in the free agent interview period. Ladd quickly signed with the Isles on Friday, inking a seven year, $38.5MM deal.
Free Agency Snapshots: Best Remaining Players
As of 11:30pm, Jason Demers signed a five-year deal with Florida. This article was written prior to that contract being signed.
A variety of analysts weighed in on who they thought the best remaining free agents were on the unrestricted free agent market. USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes that defensemen Jason Demers, Kyle Quincey, Kris Russell, James Wisniewski and Justin Schultz are all names that should find a new (or possibly the same) home. Allen still believes that Demers was the best free agent defenseman on the market, but that his reported $5MM pricetag may be scaring teams away. Allen also lists forwards Jiri Hudler, Sam Gagner, P.A. Parenteau, and Matt Cullen as other intriguing options. Allen believes that although Hudler has shown a goal scoring knack, his age (32) may be a factor in his inability to land a deal.
- NHL.com listed their best of the rest, with many mirroring Allen’s list. However, they listed Patrik Elias, Tomas Fleischmann, Roman Polak, Brad Richards, Luke Schenn, Alex Tanguay, and Radim Vrbata as other options. Most intriguing was the inclusion of Elias, who at 40 years of age, is still looking to play. Though they listed Coyotes captain Shane Doan, it was speculated yesterday that he would be returning to the desert, and that a contract was close.
- Sportsnet’s Luke Fox also had a similar list to the aforementioned, though he added Brandon Pirri, and Dennis Seidenberg as two additional options. On Pirri, Fox believes that his 29 points along with his young age (25) makes him a smart addition. Fox calls Seidenberg a dependable stay at home defenseman, but one that won’t “wow” any potential suitors.
- Finally, Greg Wyshynski writes that any team who signs Russell is making a puzzling acquisition. Wyshynski wonders if Russell could get $5MM for blocking shots–and not much more. Last season, Russell had 19 points (4-15) in 62 games with Calgary and Dallas.