Polls

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall:  Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)
6th Overall: Nazem Kadri, Phoenix Coyotes (7)
7th Overall:  Mattias Ekholm, Toronto Maple Leafs (102)
8th Overall: Evander Kane, Dallas Stars (4)
9th Overall: Brayden Schenn, Ottawa Senators (5)
10th Overall: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Edmonton Oilers (6)
11th Overall: Ryan Ellis, Nashville Predators (11)

The Nashville Predators retain their original selection at 11th overall by the slimmest of margins in our reader poll. At the time of writing, Ellis edged out Dmitry Orlov by just one vote and earned just 22.6% of the total vote in one of the most wide-open polling sessions thus far in this series.

Drafted out of OHL Windsor, Ellis would remain in junior hockey for two more seasons to great success, recording a phenomenal 100 points in 58 games from the point in the 2010-11 campaign, winning CHL Defenseman of the Year and Player of the Year honors. He turned pro the following year, splitting the season between Nashville and AHL Milwaukee but losing his rookie designation by playing 32 games. In fact, Ellis wouldn’t become a full-time fixture in the Nashville lineup until the 2013-14 campaign, and it would be another few years until he cemented himself as a top-four fixture.

He did eventually get there, though, averaging over 20 minutes per game for the first time as a 25-year-old in the 2015-16 season. Once he did, however, he solidified himself as a premier two-way talent, routinely putting himself on pace for at least 40 points in a full season and logging significant time on both special teams units. He played a large role in Nashville’s run to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final, skating 23:26 per game and recording 13 points in 22 contests and a +4 rating.

Unfortunately, Ellis would run into significant injury trouble in the campaigns that followed. While Nashville captured the President’s Trophy in 2018 thanks to a spectacular 117-point campaign, Ellis was only available for the latter half of the campaign after missing the first 38 games due to a knee injury. He would play a full 82 games in 2018-19, but he missed 20 games with an upper-body injury in both 2019-20 and 2020-21 before they traded him to the Philadelphia Flyers the following summer. Ellis’ injury troubles, now well-documented, continued with the Flyers – after recording five points through his first four games, he exited the lineup with an injury later revealed to affect his psoas muscle. He has not played since, and Flyers president of hockey operations Keith Jones doesn’t believe he’ll ever return.

Because of that, Ellis’ 566 career NHL games aren’t all that much compared to his 2009 peers. Still, his 275 career points rank sixth among defenders from the draft class, and his +116 career plus-minus rating is fourth among all 2009-drafted skaters.

Now, after picking Hedman first overall in our redraft, the Islanders are on the clock again with the 12th overall pick, one they acquired from the Minnesota Wild on draft day after a series of pick swaps involving the Columbus Blue Jackets. They selected defenseman Calvin de Haan, who’s gone on to have a respectable NHL career and is still active, but he likely won’t be the pick in our next reader poll. Which brings us to the question: out of the candidates remaining, who would you award to the Islanders at 12th overall in our 2009 redraft? Vote in our poll below:

If you can’t access our poll above, click here to vote.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall:  Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)
6th Overall: Nazem Kadri, Phoenix Coyotes (7)
7th Overall:  Mattias Ekholm, Toronto Maple Leafs (102)
8th Overall: Evander Kane, Dallas Stars (4)
9th Overall: Brayden Schenn, Ottawa Senators (5)
10th Overall: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Edmonton Oilers (6)

PHR readers have opted to give the Oilers an addition on defense rather than offense with the 10th overall pick this time around, awarding them Ekman-Larsson with 30% of the vote. In doing so, the original top seven selections are now off the board, with Kane and Ekman-Larsson, our biggest fallers so far, dropping four selections each.

Unlike many other defenders, Ekman-Larsson’s development was not a slow burn. His best seasons came before his 25th birthday, consistently earning Norris Trophy consideration while holding down a top-pair role for the Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes. He had captured a top-four role before his 21st birthday, playing in all 82 games during his sophomore 2011-12 season and posting 32 points while averaging over 22 minutes per game.

However, after four more seasons of producing like a top-flight defender, Ekman-Larsson began to show signs of decline. His point production waned slightly, and while his combined -53 rating between the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons is much more a reflection of the team around him, his possession numbers were not nearly up to par with the more dominant two-way play he’d displayed in the years prior. The Coyotes named him captain in 2018 after the retirement of Shane Doan, but his play continued to slowly dwindle until the organization cut ties in 2021, dealing him, along with Conor Garland and other ancillary pieces, to the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks bought out the remainder of his eight-year, $66MM extension signed with Arizona in 2018 this summer, resulting in the largest non-compliance buyout in league history.

The 32-year-old defender will now try and turn things around nearly as far away from Vancouver as you can get in the NHL, signing a one-year, $2.25MM deal with the Florida Panthers in free agency. He recorded two goals and 22 points in 54 games for the Canucks last season, alongside a -24 rating and a career-worst -3% relative Corsi For at even strength.

Despite his downfall, Ekman-Larsson’s peak years with the Coyotes were much better than any defender the Oilers had to offer at the time, and drafting him could have easily changed the team’s trajectory throughout the early 2010s. Of course, that would mean losing out on Connor McDavid and the first-overall pick in 2015.

Now, we move to the 11th overall selection in 2009: the Nashville Predators. They’re likely happy with their original choice, Ryan Ellis, as he contributed in a top-four role for the better part of 562 games with the franchise before a psoas muscle injury cut his career short after a deal to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2021. However, do you think there’s a better player not yet taken in our series? Vote in the poll below:

If you can’t access the poll above, you can click here to vote.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.