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2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Eighth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)
6th Overall: Nazem Kadri, Phoenix Coyotes (7)
7th Overall: Mattias Ekholm, Toronto Maple Leafs (102)

With Toronto’s initial selection being plucked by the Coyotes one pick prior, PHR voters opted to give the Leafs a defenseman, doling out the biggest riser so far in Ekholm. It was a rather sizable win for the Swedish defender, earning 31% of the PHR reader vote, coming in ahead of second-place Evander Kane, who’s now fallen at least four spots from his original fourth-overall billing. He received 19% of the vote.

Like most defenders, especially those drafted in the later rounds, it took Ekholm a few years to develop into a full-time NHLer. After playing single-digit game totals the previous two seasons, Ekholm played 62 contests for Nashville in 2013-14 as a 23-year-old, losing his rookie status. It was another couple of years until Ekholm transformed into the top-four fixture we know today, however. That came in the 2015-16 campaign when he eclipsed the 20-minutes-per-game average for the first time and notched a career-high eight goals, 27 assists and 35 points while playing in all 82 games.

Since then, Ekholm has been a model of consistency, logging heavy minutes while posting consistent point totals and possession metrics. His career-best season came in the 2018-19 campaign, when his 44 points, +27 rating and 23:22 average ice time per game earned him some Norris Trophy consideration, finishing tenth in voting that year. The Predators certainly got their value out of Ekholm, finally moving on from him earlier this year after 12 years and 719 games. He’s now part of perhaps the most skilled core in the league with the Edmonton Oilers, projecting to play a crucial role in helping develop young Evan Bouchard as his defense partner.

Now, we move to the Dallas Stars at eighth overall – a pick on which they’d certainly love a mulligan. They had the only complete whiff of the top ten, selecting speedy winger Scott Glennie from the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings. It looked like a fine pick at the time – he’d just rattled off 70 points in 55 games during his draft year. His development stunted once he turned pro in 2011, however, and he would play just one NHL game for the Stars in the 2011-12 season.

There are a handful of solid options for the Stars to pick from here. Kane is still on the board, as mentioned earlier, as are fifth-overall pick Brayden Schenn and sixth-overall pick Oliver Ekman-Larsson. PHR readers, tell us: Who would you take from the remaining crop at eighth overall? Vote in our poll below:

If you can’t access the poll above, click here to vote.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Seventh Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)
6th Overall: Nazem Kadri, Phoenix Coyotes (7)

Rather than have history repeat itself by selecting Oliver Ekman-Larsson with the sixth pick, PHR readers instead opted to give the Coyotes a center with nearly 30% of the votes cast coming in for Kadri.

It took some time for Kadri to find his footing in the NHL but a breakout performance in the lockout-shortened 2012-23 campaign saw him secure a full-time role.  That year, he posted a 0.93 points per game average and it looked like Toronto had found a true impact center, a vacancy they had dealt with for several seasons by that time with the likes of Mikhail Grabovski, Tyler Bozak, and Matt Stajan playing big minutes in the previous seasons.

However, it took a while for Kadri to really take off as he wasn’t able to produce like a true top-line middleman with consistency.  In fact, it wasn’t until Auston Matthews arrived in 2016-17 that Kadri was able to reach the 30-goal mark, a milestone he then reached in back-to-back years.  Unfortunately for Toronto, discipline issues became too much of a concern and in the 2019 offseason, he was traded to Colorado with Tyson Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot as part of the package coming the other way.  Barrie lasted one season in Toronto before signing with Edmonton while Kerfoot held a middle-six role for each of the last four years and signed with Arizona last month.

Meanwhile, with the Avs, Kadri started slow, recording just 30 goals in his first two seasons combined, spanning 107 games.  But in 2021-22, he had a career year, exploding for 87 points; his previous career-high was only 61.  He then followed that up with an impressive playoff performance, notching 15 points in 16 games while helping lead Colorado to the Stanley Cup.

That made Kadri one of the more sought-after players last summer and while it took a while for Calgary to create enough cap room to sign him, a seven-year, $49MM deal eventually got done.  Year one didn’t go so well (as was the case for many Flames) as his production dipped to 56 points.  That’s still the third-best single-season mark of his career but they were undoubtedly hoping for a bit more from him as Calgary ultimately missed the playoffs.  With six years left on that contract, he should be a fixture in their lineup for a while.

While Ekman-Larsson was a franchise fixture in the desert for more than a decade, they spent a lot of that time also searching for a center and it certainly is interesting to wonder what might have been had Kadri been the pick for them.

In the meantime, we move on to Toronto with the seventh selection.  Obviously, their original pick (Kadri) is off the board so they’ll be getting someone new here.  Who should they take?  Make your selection using the ballot below.

If you can’t access the poll above, click here to vote.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Sixth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)

At fifth overall, PHR voters elected to take one of the draft’s better goal-scoring specialists in Kreider, who received 25% of the total votes. Selected straight out of high school, Kreider was drafted as a center but would end up on the wing for the New York Rangers, who took him in the mid-first round. It took him a few years to make the NHL, but he quickly became a dependable middle-six winger once he did, posting solid two-way numbers and routinely scoring over 20 goals. The last two seasons have done wonders for Kreider’s legacy, though, posting 88 markers over 160 games.

Coming up to the podium at sixth overall is the Phoenix Coyotes. The era of Wayne Gretzky behind the bench is now over after four underwhelming seasons, and the franchise is still looking to return to postseason play for just the third time since the year 2000.

They selected Swedish defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who had spent the entire 2008-09 campaign playing pro hockey with Leksands IF in the Swedish second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan. He posted a massive two-way season there, recording 17 points in 39 games and a +44 rating. Few argued with the pick at the time, and given his peak with the Coyotes, it’s hard to argue they truly made the wrong selection.

He played one more season in Sweden before coming over to the Coyotes in 2010, splitting his rookie year between the NHL and AHL but getting decent NHL action with 48 games, albeit in a bottom-pairing role. He broke into a top-four role during his sophomore season and never looked back, routinely earning Norris Trophy votes and was eventually named the team’s captain in 2018 after the retirement of Shane Doan.

His all-around game began to decline significantly beginning with the 2019-20 season, though, and in the summer of 2021, the Coyotes were able to offload his contract on the Vancouver Canucks in a deal that’s turned out quite well for Arizona, in retrospect. That doesn’t change the fact he provided the Coyotes with solid top-pairing performance for the better part of a decade, however, finishing his stint in the desert with 388 points and averaging 23:26 per game across 769 games.

He didn’t last particularly long in Vancouver, either, and the Canucks executed the largest non-compliance buyout in NHL history this summer to get out of the remaining four years of his massive eight-year, $66MM extension signed with the Coyotes that kicked in just as his decline began in 2019. He’ll suit up for the Florida Panthers next season, looking to prove he can turn things around on a one-year deal.

Ekman-Larsson trails only Hedman and Nick Leddy in total games played for a defenseman from the 2009 class with 902, and he’s third in career points behind Hedman and Tyson Barrie with 439. Despite his solid tenure as a member of the Coyotes, though, should the team have gone in a different direction? Let us know who you think the Coyotes should have selected below:

If you can’t access the poll above, click here to vote.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Fifth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)

Duchene doesn’t fall more than one spot past his original selection, winning the PHR reader poll by the slimmest margin thus far with only 29% of the total votes. Still, it’s hard to argue with the selection – Duchene remains a top-six threat and, despite his overall inconsistency, has scored upwards of 30 goals and 70 points on multiple occasions. In terms of career totals, he’s played in 123 more games than Evander Kane, Atlanta’s original pick at fourth overall, scored 14 more goals, and added a whopping 157 more assists.

The Los Angeles Kings are now on the clock at fifth overall in our 2009 redraft series. Things are looking up for the team after drafting names like Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown and Wayne Simmonds in recent years, but they’ve now missed the playoffs for six straight years and are feeling the pressure to exit their rebuild in the post-Luc Robitaille era.

With their third-straight top-five pick, they selected center Brayden Schenn from the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings. The burgeoning two-way talent had solid name recognition, and the Kings had passed on his older brother, defenseman Luke Schenn, the year prior. Luke went fifth overall to the Toronto Maple Leafs after the Kings selected Thomas Hickey with the fourth overall pick.

While Schenn developed into an established top-six force in the NHL with a fruitful career, it wasn’t with the team that drafted him. He played just nine games with the Kings in the following two seasons after the draft before they traded him (along with Simmonds) to the Philadelphia Flyers in a package for center Mike Richards in 2011. With the Flyers, it didn’t take Schenn terribly long to become a strong middle-six center, eventually earning more chances higher in the lineup once moved to the wing. He tallied 20-plus goals three times in a Philadelphia jersey and had some solid possession metrics, although he never received any Selke Trophy consideration.

His career truly took off in 2017 after another trade, this time to the St. Louis Blues. He immediately posted the best season of his career, scoring a career-high 28 goals and 70 points in 2017-18 and playing nearly 20 minutes per game. He took a small step back in 2018-19, but you won’t hear any Blues fans complaining about that – he would go on to record 12 points in 26 playoff games as the Blues won the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history.

Set to turn 32 in a few days, Schenn is actually posting the most consistently high offensive totals of his career, combining for 123 points in 144 games over the past two seasons. His two-way game is starting to decline, but nonetheless, he’s given his two longtime NHL homes some solid hockey over the past decade-plus.

That being said, is Schenn the best player left on the board, or are there other options that would have better served the Kings? Make your voice heard in the poll below:

If you can’t access the poll above, click here to vote!

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Fourth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)

The Conn Smythe winner with the 2019 Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues is off the board at third overall, becoming the first player taken outside of the first round to appear in our redraft. Notably, he does stay with the team that took him on Day 2 of the 2009 NHL Draft – the Colorado Avalanche, who used their second pick of the draft on O’Reilly after selecting Matt Duchene with the third overall pick. Both players have gone on to produce good offensive totals near the top of the class, although O’Reilly’s taken home more in terms of award hardware with a championship, a Conn Smythe and a Selke Trophy all under his belt. O’Reilly won with 48% of our polling, while Duchene finished second in third-overall voting with just 13% of the vote.

Next up on the draft board is the Atlanta Thrashers at fourth overall. This was their second straight top-five selection after using the third overall pick on defenseman Zach Bogosian in 2008.

This year, however, their big prospect add was forward Evander Kane out of the WHL’s Vancouver Giants. While it wasn’t a bad pick at all if you look at his point production throughout his career and his ability to consistently play a top-six role, Kane has had a multitude of off-ice incidents throughout his career, including having his contract terminated by the San Jose Sharks in 2022 for breaching COVID protocols.

Nonetheless, Kane was a solid player for the Thrashers (and Winnipeg Jets) for parts of six seasons until he was moved to the Buffalo Sabres in 2015. He was widely viewed as the best pick available at the time – after all, he had just posted 96 points in 61 games with the Giants while recording 89 penalty minutes to boot, and he’d recorded six points in six games for Canada at that year’s World Junior Championships.

He signed his entry-level contract with Atlanta just weeks after the draft and made the NHL full-time out of the gate in a middle-six role. As an 18-year-old, he recorded 14 goals and 12 assists for 26 points in 66 games, finishing tied in Calder Trophy voting with Hedman that year. By the time the 2012-13 partial lockout rolled around, Kane had a 30-goal season under his belt and was averaging over 20 minutes per game.

After later career stops with the Sabres, Sharks and now Edmonton Oilers, Kane has some well-documented defensive weaknesses but still brings an intriguing blend of shooting ability and physicality to the table. In 853 games, he’s scored 302 goals – third among the 2009 class behind Tavares and Duchene. His 573 career points are sixth in the class.

There’s an argument to be made that the Thrashers made the right pick, but Duchene could have also been a more intriguing option had he been available for the Thrashers to select at fourth overall. They don’t have very long to decide, though, as Atlanta is now on the clock – who should they select with the fourth-overall pick in the 2009 NHL Draft? Make your voice heard below:

If you can’t access the built-in poll, click here to vote.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Third Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)

Unsurprisingly, the top two selections from the 2009 crop are gone by the time we reach third overall. However, Hedman did leapfrog Tavares for the number one spot in our PHR polling, although it was much closer than in years past, with Hedman capturing just 53% of the vote. Tavares’ win was much more squarely in landslide territory at second overall, however, earning over 75% of the vote with no real challengers other than Ryan O’Reilly, who received 8%. With Tavares producing at one of the more consistent clips over the past decade and a half, it’s no surprise he didn’t fall any further than he did.

Now on the clock at third overall is the Colorado Avalanche, who are coming off their worst season in 15 years and look to be entering a full-scale rebuild with longtime captain Joe Sakic announcing his retirement shortly after the 2009 Draft.

This was a rather consequential pick for the Avs franchise, who hadn’t picked in the top ten since the Quebec Nordiques took netminder Jocelyn Thibault at tenth overall in 1993 (followed by future Avalanche cult legend Adam Deadmarsh at #14). With it, they selected the second center (and second OHLer) of the top three in Matt Duchene, coming off a 79-point season with the Brampton Battalion. He immediately looked like an incredible selection – Duchene stepped into a top-six role as a 19-year-old the following season, scoring 55 points in 81 games and helping the Avalanche return to a playoff spot in 2010. After building on it with 27 goals and 67 points in his sophomore season, Duchene looked like a potential Sakic replacement if his development stayed linear.

It wasn’t to be, however. His third season was a write-off, partially thanks to knee and ankle injuries which cost him 24 games. He quickly rebounded, though, clicking near a point per game in 2012-13 and 2013-14, but his offense soon fell to second-line caliber numbers, and he was eventually dealt to the Ottawa Senators early in the 2017-18 campaign. It started a run of four teams in three seasons for Duchene, who also had a brief pit stop with the Columbus Blue Jackets before signing a massive seven-year, $56MM contract with the Nashville Predators in free agency after he rebounded for 70 points in 73 games in 2018-19.

His tenure in Nashville was equally inconsistent. While he did have a career season in 2021-22, scoring 43 goals and 86 points, both his offense and defense took a step back last season, and the Predators bought out the final three seasons of his contract. Set to suit up for the Dallas Stars next season, Duchene does remain a serviceable (at worst) top-six piece as he enters his early/mid-30s.

While he wasn’t the standout, everyday first-liner he looked to be during his early days with Colorado, Duchene has still had quite a fruitful career. He hasn’t won any major awards but sits second in goals and points among the 2009 class behind Tavares. However, Colorado’s second-round pick this year, O’Reilly, has finished in the first spot behind Hedman and Tavares in both of our polls so far.

Given the polling and career resume, one of Duchene or O’Reilly will likely remain with the Avs in our Take Two series. Was Duchene the better Av out of this class, or has O’Reilly’s career (or someone else) eclipsed him? Make your voice heard in the poll below:

If you can’t access the poll above, click here to vote.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Earlier in the week, we kicked off the 2009 Take Two series by polling PHR readers on their pick for first overall with the benefit of hindsight. Defenseman Victor Hedman jumped up to claim the number-one spot by a comparatively slim margin, capturing 53% of the vote. In past years, the choice has been rather clear, with PHR voters settling on the draft class’ best player by scores of 70% or more.

Now with Hedman off the board to the New York Islanders at first overall, John Tavares remains on the board, with the Tampa Bay Lightning picking at number two. At the time of the draft, there was no question about whether Tavares would fall. He was one of the few players granted exceptional status into the OHL as a 15-year-old and, given he was only five days away from being eligible for the 2008 draft, Tavares already had four full seasons of junior hockey under his belt with two 100-plus point seasons to show for it.

While the circumstances of Tavares’ departure in free agency from the Islanders for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 have soured the fanbase’s opinion on his time with the team, he’s inarguably one of the most talented players in team history and was the cornerstone behind their first-round playoff win in 2016, ending a decades-long streak without a series victory. The team’s captain for five seasons ended up with 621 points in 669 games as an Islander and ranks fifth in team history in Hockey Reference’s point shares system.

Among his 2009 peers, he currently sits as the all-time leader in goals, assists and points and is the only one with more than 1,000 career NHL games under his belt. Despite that, Tavares hasn’t taken home any major awards like Hedman – although Tavares was a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013 and 2015 at just 22 and 24 years old. If he had fallen to Tampa for whatever reason, may they have won more Stanley Cups with this core with Tavares in the fold along with Steven Stamkos?

That’s what we’re asking you today, PHR readers. Will Tavares fall yet another spot in your hindsight-influenced 2009 draft ranking, or will the Lightning select a second franchise center to complement Stamkos, who they selected first overall just one year prior? Vote in the poll below:

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2009 NHL Draft Take Two: First Overall Pick

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Hindsight is fantastic, allowing us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science, and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

As we find ourselves amidst the summer lull, it’s the perfect time to reflect on times gone by – the strategies that bore fruit and those that missed the mark. This sentiment resonates even with draft picks – where some early selections have blossomed into the cornerstones of their respective franchises, while others fell short of the lofty expectations. Having delved into the drafts of 2006, 2007, and 2008 in the past, it’s now an opportune moment to embark on a similar journey through a new NHL redraft series, focusing on the class of 2009.

The draft pool from this year stands out as notably robust, featuring an impressive tally of 39 players (and the count is ongoing) who have graced the NHL ice for a minimum of 500 games. Within this assembly, one can spot All-Star performers and, potentially, a small handful of players destined for the esteemed corridors of the Hall of Fame in the years to come. Conversely, a less fortunate facet also emerges, as five first-rounders failed to hit the century mark, keeping them out of the picture in the forthcoming series.

During the upcoming weeks, as we anticipate the commencement of training camps, we will delve into the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. In this quest, we invite the PHR community to make their choices, armed with the hindsight of each player’s career trajectory. A roster of players will be presented, and we will continuously update the first round as the selection process unfolds.

In the 2009 draft, the New York Islanders retained the first overall pick through a lottery win, granting them the privilege of making the top selection. At this pivotal juncture, the team confronted a crucial decision: opt for a cornerstone center or a cornerstone defenseman, much like the Tampa Bay Lightning the year prior. John Tavares and Victor Hedman emerged as the consensus top two prospects, with general manager Garth Snow looking to get the team back to relevance as quickly as possible after finishing last in their division for two consecutive seasons. Ultimately, the Islanders chose the former, and Tavares certainly became a cornerstone piece for them, leading the draft in games played (1,029) and in all major scoring categories. It’s worth noting that Hedman, though, would’ve been a very fair pick with hindsight in mind, as he’s manned a formidable Lightning blueline to four Stanley Cup Finals throughout his tenure and leads all 2009-drafted defenders in scoring by a wide margin. Armed with retrospective wisdom, the question arises: Did the Islanders’ decision to take Tavares give them the best shot at success before he departed for the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency in 2018, or would Hedman get the team closer to a championship by now?

With the first pick of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, who should the New York Islanders select? Make your voice heard below.

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Poll: Who Won The Erik Karlsson Trade?

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For the first time in quite some time, the hockey world saw a blockbuster in early August, watching the San Jose Sharks trade defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a three-team deal. In recent trades over the last several years, teams have typically weaponized cap space as a third-team, retaining salary and usually getting mid to late-round picks in return. A unique aspect of this trade, however, is that the third team, the Montreal Canadiens, were able to take care of some business they had been hoping to accomplish for a while, namely removing forward Mike Hoffman’s salary off their books.

Running up to the Karlsson trade, speculation had arisen about how much the Sharks would eventually retain on Karlsson’s contract, and for the most part, it was much lower than many experts had theorized. San Jose only retained $1.5MM (13%) of Karlsson’s $11.5MM salary, effectively clearing $10MM from their cap table over the next four years. Nevertheless, the Sharks did take back salary in exchange with Hoffman ($4.5MM), Mikael Granlund ($5MM), and Jan Rutta ($2.75MM), but all three of these deals will be off their books after the 2024-25 NHL season.

Lastly, at face value, the Penguins appear to be the undeniable winner in this deal. Even though he has not played a game for Pittsburgh, acquiring the best player in the deal always looks good. Surprisingly though, and maybe even more importantly long-term than acquiring Karlsson, the Penguins were able to move some poor contracts out from the Ron Hextall era, including Granlund, Rutta, Casey DeSmith ($1.8MM), and Jeff Petry ($4.69MM – 25% retained). New General Manager Kyle Dubas was able to add a $10MM player in Karlsson, while also creating $3MM of cap space in the same deal, a feat that has been largely difficult for most teams in the salary cap era.

Now that the complete trade is public and final, and knowing the perspectives of all three teams, who do you think ultimately won the Karlsson trade?

Poll: Will The Penguins Utilize Their Second Buyout Window?

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As a result of the pre-arbitration settlement with Drew O’Connor earlier this week, the Penguins now have a 48-hour window that began today to buy a player out.  Unlike the regular buyout window, however, there are some additional restrictions on who can be bought out during this stretch.  The player must have a cap hit of at least $4MM and must have been on the roster at the trade deadline.

There is one obvious candidate to go this route in forward Mikael Granlund, who was a speculative buyout option back in June.  The 31-year-old was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline in somewhat of a surprising move and he struggled with his new team, notching just one goal in 21 games following the swap.  That’s not the type of return they were expecting on someone that has a $5MM cap charge for two more seasons.

It’s not that Granlund is a bad player by any stretch – he’s coming off a 44-point year and had 64 points in 2021-22 but this is not a marketplace for a team to trade a player on an expensive contract and get fair value.  If GM Kyle Dubas doesn’t want to pay future assets to get a team to take on Granlund’s deal and has an eye on completing an Erik Karlsson trade with San Jose, a buyout would be one way to create cap space.

Next season, Granlund’s cap hit would go down to just $833K, yielding more than $4MM in short-term savings.  That amount jumps to $1.833MM for the following three seasons, however.  But if making that move helps acquire Karlsson, it’s an option to consider.

There is also one other speculative candidate for a buyout and that’s Jeff Petry.  The defenseman is widely expected to be traded as part of any potential Karlsson swap but he also holds a 15-team no-trade clause which certainly is a complicating factor.  If none of the teams that aren’t on his no-trade list are interested in picking him up, Pittsburgh might be forced to buy Petry out and then use Granlund as the offsetting salary ballast in a swap.

That route doesn’t yield as much in the way of savings, however, with the veteran having signing bonus money in both remaining years of his deal, one that carries a $6.25MM AAV.  That cap charge would drop to $3MM next season with a buyout before increasing to $4.5MM in 2024-25 so the savings aren’t as significant.  (The Penguins would then carry a $1.25MM charge for 2025-26 and 2026-27.)

It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh will have some short-term flexibility at the start of next season thanks to Jake Guentzel’s ankle surgery that will keep him out for the next three months, making him LTIR-eligible.  But in order to activate him midseason, they’ll need to be cap-compliant.  Accordingly, they can’t really use any of his money to offset Karlsson’s cost, whatever portion of the $11.5MM they’d be taking on.

Dubas has been hesitant to go the buyout route in the past but this is a bit of a different situation now.  The team has 48 hours to make a decision and if going this way helps to facilitate the acquisition of Karlsson, it’s one they’ll strongly have to consider if the trade options either aren’t there or are too punitive in terms of what it would cost to get a team to take on the deal.

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