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2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Third Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)

Unsurprisingly, the top two selections from the 2009 crop are gone by the time we reach third overall. However, Hedman did leapfrog Tavares for the number one spot in our PHR polling, although it was much closer than in years past, with Hedman capturing just 53% of the vote. Tavares’ win was much more squarely in landslide territory at second overall, however, earning over 75% of the vote with no real challengers other than Ryan O’Reilly, who received 8%. With Tavares producing at one of the more consistent clips over the past decade and a half, it’s no surprise he didn’t fall any further than he did.

Now on the clock at third overall is the Colorado Avalanche, who are coming off their worst season in 15 years and look to be entering a full-scale rebuild with longtime captain Joe Sakic announcing his retirement shortly after the 2009 Draft.

This was a rather consequential pick for the Avs franchise, who hadn’t picked in the top ten since the Quebec Nordiques took netminder Jocelyn Thibault at tenth overall in 1993 (followed by future Avalanche cult legend Adam Deadmarsh at #14). With it, they selected the second center (and second OHLer) of the top three in Matt Duchene, coming off a 79-point season with the Brampton Battalion. He immediately looked like an incredible selection – Duchene stepped into a top-six role as a 19-year-old the following season, scoring 55 points in 81 games and helping the Avalanche return to a playoff spot in 2010. After building on it with 27 goals and 67 points in his sophomore season, Duchene looked like a potential Sakic replacement if his development stayed linear.

It wasn’t to be, however. His third season was a write-off, partially thanks to knee and ankle injuries which cost him 24 games. He quickly rebounded, though, clicking near a point per game in 2012-13 and 2013-14, but his offense soon fell to second-line caliber numbers, and he was eventually dealt to the Ottawa Senators early in the 2017-18 campaign. It started a run of four teams in three seasons for Duchene, who also had a brief pit stop with the Columbus Blue Jackets before signing a massive seven-year, $56MM contract with the Nashville Predators in free agency after he rebounded for 70 points in 73 games in 2018-19.

His tenure in Nashville was equally inconsistent. While he did have a career season in 2021-22, scoring 43 goals and 86 points, both his offense and defense took a step back last season, and the Predators bought out the final three seasons of his contract. Set to suit up for the Dallas Stars next season, Duchene does remain a serviceable (at worst) top-six piece as he enters his early/mid-30s.

While he wasn’t the standout, everyday first-liner he looked to be during his early days with Colorado, Duchene has still had quite a fruitful career. He hasn’t won any major awards but sits second in goals and points among the 2009 class behind Tavares. However, Colorado’s second-round pick this year, O’Reilly, has finished in the first spot behind Hedman and Tavares in both of our polls so far.

Given the polling and career resume, one of Duchene or O’Reilly will likely remain with the Avs in our Take Two series. Was Duchene the better Av out of this class, or has O’Reilly’s career (or someone else) eclipsed him? Make your voice heard in the poll below:

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2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Earlier in the week, we kicked off the 2009 Take Two series by polling PHR readers on their pick for first overall with the benefit of hindsight. Defenseman Victor Hedman jumped up to claim the number-one spot by a comparatively slim margin, capturing 53% of the vote. In past years, the choice has been rather clear, with PHR voters settling on the draft class’ best player by scores of 70% or more.

Now with Hedman off the board to the New York Islanders at first overall, John Tavares remains on the board, with the Tampa Bay Lightning picking at number two. At the time of the draft, there was no question about whether Tavares would fall. He was one of the few players granted exceptional status into the OHL as a 15-year-old and, given he was only five days away from being eligible for the 2008 draft, Tavares already had four full seasons of junior hockey under his belt with two 100-plus point seasons to show for it.

While the circumstances of Tavares’ departure in free agency from the Islanders for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 have soured the fanbase’s opinion on his time with the team, he’s inarguably one of the most talented players in team history and was the cornerstone behind their first-round playoff win in 2016, ending a decades-long streak without a series victory. The team’s captain for five seasons ended up with 621 points in 669 games as an Islander and ranks fifth in team history in Hockey Reference’s point shares system.

Among his 2009 peers, he currently sits as the all-time leader in goals, assists and points and is the only one with more than 1,000 career NHL games under his belt. Despite that, Tavares hasn’t taken home any major awards like Hedman – although Tavares was a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013 and 2015 at just 22 and 24 years old. If he had fallen to Tampa for whatever reason, may they have won more Stanley Cups with this core with Tavares in the fold along with Steven Stamkos?

That’s what we’re asking you today, PHR readers. Will Tavares fall yet another spot in your hindsight-influenced 2009 draft ranking, or will the Lightning select a second franchise center to complement Stamkos, who they selected first overall just one year prior? Vote in the poll below:

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2009 NHL Draft Take Two: First Overall Pick

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Hindsight is fantastic, allowing us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science, and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

As we find ourselves amidst the summer lull, it’s the perfect time to reflect on times gone by – the strategies that bore fruit and those that missed the mark. This sentiment resonates even with draft picks – where some early selections have blossomed into the cornerstones of their respective franchises, while others fell short of the lofty expectations. Having delved into the drafts of 2006, 2007, and 2008 in the past, it’s now an opportune moment to embark on a similar journey through a new NHL redraft series, focusing on the class of 2009.

The draft pool from this year stands out as notably robust, featuring an impressive tally of 39 players (and the count is ongoing) who have graced the NHL ice for a minimum of 500 games. Within this assembly, one can spot All-Star performers and, potentially, a small handful of players destined for the esteemed corridors of the Hall of Fame in the years to come. Conversely, a less fortunate facet also emerges, as five first-rounders failed to hit the century mark, keeping them out of the picture in the forthcoming series.

During the upcoming weeks, as we anticipate the commencement of training camps, we will delve into the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. In this quest, we invite the PHR community to make their choices, armed with the hindsight of each player’s career trajectory. A roster of players will be presented, and we will continuously update the first round as the selection process unfolds.

In the 2009 draft, the New York Islanders retained the first overall pick through a lottery win, granting them the privilege of making the top selection. At this pivotal juncture, the team confronted a crucial decision: opt for a cornerstone center or a cornerstone defenseman, much like the Tampa Bay Lightning the year prior. John Tavares and Victor Hedman emerged as the consensus top two prospects, with general manager Garth Snow looking to get the team back to relevance as quickly as possible after finishing last in their division for two consecutive seasons. Ultimately, the Islanders chose the former, and Tavares certainly became a cornerstone piece for them, leading the draft in games played (1,029) and in all major scoring categories. It’s worth noting that Hedman, though, would’ve been a very fair pick with hindsight in mind, as he’s manned a formidable Lightning blueline to four Stanley Cup Finals throughout his tenure and leads all 2009-drafted defenders in scoring by a wide margin. Armed with retrospective wisdom, the question arises: Did the Islanders’ decision to take Tavares give them the best shot at success before he departed for the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency in 2018, or would Hedman get the team closer to a championship by now?

With the first pick of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, who should the New York Islanders select? Make your voice heard below.

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Poll: Who Won The Erik Karlsson Trade?

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For the first time in quite some time, the hockey world saw a blockbuster in early August, watching the San Jose Sharks trade defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a three-team deal. In recent trades over the last several years, teams have typically weaponized cap space as a third-team, retaining salary and usually getting mid to late-round picks in return. A unique aspect of this trade, however, is that the third team, the Montreal Canadiens, were able to take care of some business they had been hoping to accomplish for a while, namely removing forward Mike Hoffman’s salary off their books.

Running up to the Karlsson trade, speculation had arisen about how much the Sharks would eventually retain on Karlsson’s contract, and for the most part, it was much lower than many experts had theorized. San Jose only retained $1.5MM (13%) of Karlsson’s $11.5MM salary, effectively clearing $10MM from their cap table over the next four years. Nevertheless, the Sharks did take back salary in exchange with Hoffman ($4.5MM), Mikael Granlund ($5MM), and Jan Rutta ($2.75MM), but all three of these deals will be off their books after the 2024-25 NHL season.

Lastly, at face value, the Penguins appear to be the undeniable winner in this deal. Even though he has not played a game for Pittsburgh, acquiring the best player in the deal always looks good. Surprisingly though, and maybe even more importantly long-term than acquiring Karlsson, the Penguins were able to move some poor contracts out from the Ron Hextall era, including Granlund, Rutta, Casey DeSmith ($1.8MM), and Jeff Petry ($4.69MM – 25% retained). New General Manager Kyle Dubas was able to add a $10MM player in Karlsson, while also creating $3MM of cap space in the same deal, a feat that has been largely difficult for most teams in the salary cap era.

Now that the complete trade is public and final, and knowing the perspectives of all three teams, who do you think ultimately won the Karlsson trade?

Poll: Will The Penguins Utilize Their Second Buyout Window?

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As a result of the pre-arbitration settlement with Drew O’Connor earlier this week, the Penguins now have a 48-hour window that began today to buy a player out.  Unlike the regular buyout window, however, there are some additional restrictions on who can be bought out during this stretch.  The player must have a cap hit of at least $4MM and must have been on the roster at the trade deadline.

There is one obvious candidate to go this route in forward Mikael Granlund, who was a speculative buyout option back in June.  The 31-year-old was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline in somewhat of a surprising move and he struggled with his new team, notching just one goal in 21 games following the swap.  That’s not the type of return they were expecting on someone that has a $5MM cap charge for two more seasons.

It’s not that Granlund is a bad player by any stretch – he’s coming off a 44-point year and had 64 points in 2021-22 but this is not a marketplace for a team to trade a player on an expensive contract and get fair value.  If GM Kyle Dubas doesn’t want to pay future assets to get a team to take on Granlund’s deal and has an eye on completing an Erik Karlsson trade with San Jose, a buyout would be one way to create cap space.

Next season, Granlund’s cap hit would go down to just $833K, yielding more than $4MM in short-term savings.  That amount jumps to $1.833MM for the following three seasons, however.  But if making that move helps acquire Karlsson, it’s an option to consider.

There is also one other speculative candidate for a buyout and that’s Jeff Petry.  The defenseman is widely expected to be traded as part of any potential Karlsson swap but he also holds a 15-team no-trade clause which certainly is a complicating factor.  If none of the teams that aren’t on his no-trade list are interested in picking him up, Pittsburgh might be forced to buy Petry out and then use Granlund as the offsetting salary ballast in a swap.

That route doesn’t yield as much in the way of savings, however, with the veteran having signing bonus money in both remaining years of his deal, one that carries a $6.25MM AAV.  That cap charge would drop to $3MM next season with a buyout before increasing to $4.5MM in 2024-25 so the savings aren’t as significant.  (The Penguins would then carry a $1.25MM charge for 2025-26 and 2026-27.)

It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh will have some short-term flexibility at the start of next season thanks to Jake Guentzel’s ankle surgery that will keep him out for the next three months, making him LTIR-eligible.  But in order to activate him midseason, they’ll need to be cap-compliant.  Accordingly, they can’t really use any of his money to offset Karlsson’s cost, whatever portion of the $11.5MM they’d be taking on.

Dubas has been hesitant to go the buyout route in the past but this is a bit of a different situation now.  The team has 48 hours to make a decision and if going this way helps to facilitate the acquisition of Karlsson, it’s one they’ll strongly have to consider if the trade options either aren’t there or are too punitive in terms of what it would cost to get a team to take on the deal.

What will the Penguins do?  Make your prediction by voting below.

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Poll: Which Non-Playoff Team Will Make The Playoffs This Year?

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From the 2021-22 season to the 2022-23 NHL campaign, the league saw two teams from the Eastern Conference (New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders), and three teams from the Western Conference (Seattle Kraken, Vegas Golden Knights, and Winnipeg Jets) make the playoffs after having missed the year prior. With another offseason almost behind us, it is time to start thinking about which teams will make the jump this upcoming year.

Western Conference Contenders

Nashville Predators – In what many considered to be a disappointing campaign in 2022-23, the Predators still only missed the playoffs by a hair, sitting three points back of the Jets. This offseason, the team filled out the roster with some aggressive moves, adding Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn, and Gustav Nyquist into the mix. The Central Division is top-heavy with the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars likely leading the charge, but the Predators should have some room to sneak their way into the playoffs.

Calgary Flames – The success of the first half of the year for the Flames should largely dictate what this team looks like at the season’s end. If Calgary is unable to come to terms on extensions with Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, and seemingly their entire defensive core, the Flames will likely be one of the biggest sellers at next year’s trade deadline if they are unable to string together some wins. However, if the team plays well, Calgary would only be a couple of rental pieces away from being a legitimate playoff candidate.

St.Louis Blues – A very similar team to the Predators in regards to their circumstances, the Blues could be a sneaky playoff candidate coming out of the Western Conference in the upcoming season. Bringing back a largely similar roster to the one they finished last year with, St.Louis has good young talent, very intriguing project players, and has also added Kevin Hayes to their forward core. Again, playing in a division with only two surefire bets for the playoffs, the Blues could make some noise.

 

Eastern Conference Contenders

Buffalo Sabres – For the first time in a long time, the last week of the season mattered for Buffalo. Going down to the wire with the Florida Panthers, the Sabres only finished one point outside the top wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. They finished third in the league last year in Goals For but finished a dismal 26th in Goals Against. Their goaltending could become an issue if Devon Levi does not live up to the hype, but adding defensemen such as Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson should help mask some weaknesses between the pipes.

Ottawa Senators – After acquiring Alex DeBrincat at last year’s draft, as well as signing Claude Giroux in the offseason, the Senators seemed poised to return to the playoffs last season. Unfortunately, due to some untimely injuries and poor goaltending performance, Ottawa once again found themselves outside looking in. The team is hoping to have found their answer in the net, signing goaltender Joonas Korpisalo for the next five seasons. The team will also benefit from a full year of defenseman Jakob Chychrun, and now having the privilege of employing Vladimir Tarasenko in the team’s top six could get them back into the mix.

Detroit Red Wings – Copying last offseason’s method, the Red Wings were once again one of the more active teams in free agency this year. Adding players like J.T. Compher, Justin Holl, and James Reimer, Detroit is once again trying to fill holes through their ample cap space. Not feeling they had done enough, the team went out and made a trade with the Senators to bring DeBrincat to Motor City. After some impressive drafts over the last four seasons, the sentiment around the league is that the Red Wings are on the cusp of returning to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately for them, and the two other Eastern teams mentioned, they all find themselves in arguably the toughest division in the game.

Now, we leave it to you. Which team do you think will make it back to the postseason for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs? Will it be one of the teams mentioned above or a team completely off anybody’s radar?

Poll: What Was The Top Offseason Acquisition?

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As we approach August, this time of year typically signifies the gateway to the dog days of summer for the NHL. There already has been significant movement up to this point, including Alex DeBrincat, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dmitry Orlov, etc., but dominoes such as Vladimir Tarasenko, and Erik Karlsson, still need to fall.

With all the moves being made so far, the question arises about what acquisition moves the needle the most for the acquiring team. Stanley Cup contenders certainly added to star-studded rosters, and several teams made moves to end lengthy rebuilds.

At this stage of the summer, what do you think has been the best off-season acquisition?

Poll: Who Won The First Week Of Free Agency?

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As we enter the second weekend of July, unrestricted free agents have now had over six days to sign contracts and settle on new hockey homes, whether short-term or long-term. This year’s July 1 was a refreshing change of pace from some of the slower COVID-era free agency periods, with over 150 signings to parse through within 24 hours of the market opening. It may have been a weaker market than normal, but with cap space at a premium, there were some interesting signings (and choices) made over the last week.

The biggest free agent acquisition may have also been the biggest trade deadline acquisition just a few months ago – defenseman Dmitry Orlov. He found himself sacrificing long-term stability, instead cashing in for a few short years during his prime, signing a two-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes worth a whopping $7.75MM per season. It makes him the highest-paid defenseman on the team, and it’s the highest cap hit of any deal handed out so far. Overall, Carolina’s been one of the more active teams over the past week, also signing winger Michael Bunting, and they’re expected to re-acquire defenseman Tony DeAngelo in a trade with the Philadelphia Flyers, which could go through as soon as tomorrow. They’ve also been linked to one of the best players left on the market, Vladimir Tarasenko, and remain in trade talks for reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson.

Another team handing out some hefty contracts was the Anaheim Ducks, getting a pair of experienced veterans to head from coast to coast. Inking two-time Stanley Cup Champion winger Alex Killorn to a four-year contract worth $6.25MM per season and getting staunch defender Radko Gudas locked in at three years for $4MM per season, their front office is committed to adding some secondary pieces as Anaheim looks to turn the corner in their rebuild. It’s more term and money than most expected for both players at their age, however.

The Detroit Red Wings were also quite active over the past few weeks. They dished out a five-year commitment to center J.T. Compher, a one-year, $4.125MM deal for defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, a three-year, $3.4MM contract for defenseman Justin Holl, and added veteran backup James Reimer to complement their crease. The individual merits of each contract have been hotly debated – especially those of Compher and Holl – but it’s fair to wonder whether these moves leave Detroit in a more competitive position than they were at this time last year after signing players like David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Ben Chiarot.

Interim general manager Kyle Dubas also made his mark on his new team, as the Pittsburgh Penguins re-signed starting netminder Tristan Jarry to a five-year deal and nabbed defenseman Ryan Graves for six years, also making many smaller moves to round out their forward depth.

Some other notable signings have included the Toronto Maple Leafs handing out one-year deals to John Klingberg ($4.15MM), Max Domi ($3MM), and Tyler Bertuzzi ($5.5MM), the Nashville Predators adding a trio of veterans in Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn, and Gustav Nyquist, the Arizona Coyotes nabbing middle-six forwards Jason Zucker and Alexander Kerfoot, and the Ottawa Senators adding to their crease with a five-year, $20MM contract for Joonas Korpisalo.

We ask you, PHR readers, which team has done the best work over the past few days? Were there any teams you thought strayed from a solid plan, overpaid on the market, or maybe instead nabbed some value talents? Make your voice heard below in our poll or in the comment section:

Poll: Where Will Pierre-Luc Dubois Play Next Season?

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During the Stanley Cup Final, Pierre LeBrun of TSN reported that Pierre-Luc Dubois and his agent had requested a trade from the Winnipeg Jets. This will be the second time Dubois has done that throughout his young career, already having his request granted once after being traded for Patrik Laine back in 2021.

Since being acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets, the former third-overall selection has become a valuable offensive piece for Winnipeg. This season, in a similar fashion to last year, Dubois finished with 27 goals and 36 assists in 73 games played. With plenty of teams in need of depth up the middle of the ice, the Jets could receive a decent haul for Dubois.

A native of the province of Quebec, the probable landing spot for Dubois would be the Montreal Canadiens. A team that is rebuilding through the draft and acquiring prospect capital, Dubois would be a natural fit behind captain Nick Suzuki. The Colorado Avalanche and the Boston Bruins could both use a young second-line center, and Dubois’ style of play would certainly fit both lineups. Lastly, although severely limited by the salary cap, the Los Angeles Kings had an interest in Dubois, dating back to his time in Columbus.

Where do you think Dubois will play next season?

Poll: Who Will Be The Wild Card Teams In The Eastern Conference?

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Now that the NHL and AHL trade deadlines have passed, the league is full speed ahead toward the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. With between 15-18  games left in the regular season, there are only nine points separating the seventh-place and 13th-place teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

If the season ended today, the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins would cross the finish line as the wild-card winners in the East. In their last ten games, respectively, the Islanders are 7-2-1, while the Penguins are 5-4-1. Whether or not they have the rosters to get it done, both teams made moves at the deadline in hopes of making the playoffs this year.

Following behind them, the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators are making the strongest case to move past the Islanders and Penguins. In their last ten, the Panthers are 6-4-0, while the Senators are 7-3-0. The Panthers are not the same dominant team that they were last year, but they still have an extremely talented roster led by Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk.

The Senators are following a much different course. After a few seasons of rebuilding, the Senators are finally a fun hockey team to watch again. After signing Claude Giroux and making a trade for Alex DeBrincat, the Senators had hope for meaningful games in April at the beginning of the season. Starting slow out of the gate, it seems this team has put it all together as the season has progressed. By acquiring top trade candidate Jakob Chychrun at the deadline, the Senators have the team to bring the Eastern wild-card race down to the wire.

Rounding out the last of the group that could theoretically reach the playoffs, the Washington Capitals, Buffalo Sabres, and Detroit Red Wings are still within striking distance. The Capitals and Red Wings both chose to sell at the deadline, while the Sabres’ biggest move was acquiring Jordan Greenway from the Minnesota Wild. The Sabres have a similar aura around them as the Senators, after they too have an exciting team after years of rebuilding. However, all three of these teams have a losing record in their last ten games, with the Sabres’ last game being a 10-4 blowout loss to the Dallas Stars.

So who will it be PHR readers? Cast your vote and let us know which two teams will win the wild-card race in the East.

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