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Poll: Who Will Win The Stanley Cup Final?

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After a pair of conference championship-clinching games over the weekend, the 2024 Stanley Cup Final is set. The Oilers will play the Panthers in Sunrise, Florida, for Game 1 on Saturday night.

The storyline for Florida is clear – avenge last season’s defeat. Unlike last year, when they upset their way to the Final to meet with the Golden Knights, the Panthers have home-ice advantage after a 110-point regular season and an Atlantic Division title.

They’ve brought a deeper roster back to the dance compared to last year’s squad, but perhaps more importantly, they’ve brought a healthier contingent (for now). Top-four stalwarts Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour played through shoulder injuries for most of last year’s playoffs (as well as a foot injury for Ekblad), but there’s no indication any key players are playing through major ailments this time around.

Florida also comes back with the knowledge of what not to do. Last year’s series against Vegas wasn’t particularly close – they were outscored 26-12 in a five-game loss and allowed five or more goals in all three road games. That’ll be an important learning experience as they try to overcome their existing 1-8 franchise record in Stanley Cup Final games, including a sweep at the hands of the Avalanche in 1996.

For the second year in a row, Matthew Tkachuk leads the Cats in playoff scoring. He hasn’t scored goals at the torrid pace he did in 2023, but his 14 assists and 19 points in 17 games are the most on the team. Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe are also producing at a point per game through 17 contests, and top pending unrestricted free agent Sam Reinhart is second on the team in goals behind Verhaeghe with eight.

And while he hasn’t been quite as dominant as last year’s Cinderella run, future Hall of Fame candidate Sergei Bobrovsky gives Florida an unquestionable advantage between the pipes. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner is again putting together an above-average postseason showing for the Cats, logging a .908 SV%, 2.20 GAA, and one shutout with a 12-5 record. He’s been the only goalie to take the ice for the Panthers through three rounds and has stopped 1.3 goals above average, continuing to undo the narrative created by his past postseason collapses with the Blue Jackets and Flyers.

Oilers netminder Stuart Skinner is coming off the best game of his life, stopping 34 of 35 shots last night in Edmonton to send his team to their first Final in 18 years, but is that enough to give him the benefit of the doubt? He’s certainly entering the championship series on a hot streak, putting up a .923 SV% in six games against the Stars, but his numbers on the whole this postseason (.897 SV%, -3.1 GSAA) are still inferior.

As they did against Dallas, the Oilers will need their generational stars to erase their major depth-scoring disadvantage. Their big three of Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are truly putting together the runs of legends, with Bouchard’s 27 points and +14 rating in 18 games from the blue line likely putting him in the Conn Smythe conversation.

Like in the regular season, McDavid isn’t scoring goals at a breakneck pace, but his raucous 26 assists in 18 games give him 31 points and the league lead in playoff scoring. That’s not to discount his ability to put the puck in the net, which he universally reminded everyone of with a highlight-reel goal to open the scoring in last night’s Game 6 win (video link).

So, with the matchups set and the entire week to file your official predictions away, who do you think will finish the season with the Stanley Cup lifted over their heads? Tell us in the poll below, and discuss in the comments.

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Featured images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Poll: Should The Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Mitch Marner?

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At the start of the 2018-19 NHL season, there was not a more excited fanbase than that of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Not only did the Maple Leafs have young phenoms budding in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, but the organization brought marquee free agent John Tavares into the mix on a seven-year, $77MM contract.

Since the informal start of the ’Core Four’, Toronto has appeared in the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons but has only managed to get out of the First Round once. Although there has been some speculation in the past, it appears the Maple Leafs organization may be giving more serious thought to breaking up the quartet.

To preface, Marner is not uniquely worse than any other member of the group, as they all bring their separate strengths to Toronto’s lineup. However, with Tavares’ $11MM cap hit next season likely keeping him from the trade block, coupled with Matthews and Nylander recently signing big-money extensions to stay with the organization, Marner looks like the most predictable candidate to be the odd man out.

Marner is entering the last season of a six-year, $65.408MM extension signed with Toronto in 2019, with a full No-Move Clause kicking in on July 1st of last year. If the Maple Leafs are set on moving Marner this offseason, they will need his consent no matter the destination or the return package.

Assuming Toronto does not retain any salary, and they are not taking any large AAV contracts back in return, moving Marner will allow the Maple Leafs to free up nearly $11MM in cap space, as well as acquire plenty of young talent and draft capital in return. Especially if the acquiring team can sign Marner to an extension as a part of the trade package, Toronto could set themselves up nicely for the future even by trading just one of the ’Core Four’.

Although it would be nice if Toronto could have more future capital, as well as the flexibility to better re-allocate their financial resources, there is no guarantee that any player or pick acquired will turn out to be half the player that Marner is. Over eight years in Toronto, Marner has put up 639 points in 576 games; an offensive output that is rare to come across in an individual player. Since it’s hard to imagine a prospect or draft pick coming back to the Maple Leafs being even nearly as good as Marner, it complicates the argument that a move such as this would put them in a better position to win.

Now the vote is left to you, to be a more competitive team in next year’s playoffs, is Toronto better served by keeping Marner for the long haul, or should they try and move on from him this summer?

Poll: Should The Lightning Re-Sign Steven Stamkos?

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In case you’ve missed the discourse after the Lightning’s first-round elimination last night (or haven’t read our preview of this summer’s top UFA left wings), Steven Stamkos is on an expiring contract. The future Hall-of-Famer has now wrapped up the eight-year, $68MM extension he signed in 2016 and will go to market on July 1 if not signed to an extension.

Over the course of his extension, the now 34-year-old Stamkos has overseen the greatest sustained period of success in franchise history. The club only missed the postseason once – the first season of his deal, 2016-17, in which a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee ended his campaign in November. Back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, a third straight Finals appearance in 2022, and an additional Eastern Conference Final showing in 2018 have cemented the Lightning as arguably the most successful squad over the past 10 years, notwithstanding the three other ECF/SCF appearances Stamkos made with the team before his extension (2011, 2015, 2016).

Overall, injuries limited him to 513 of 618 possible regular-season games (83.8%) during his last contract, but he’s remained a capable top-of-the-lineup scorer and is money in the bank for over a point per game. He had 81 in 79 this season, including 40 goals – his seventh time hitting the milestone.

Stamkos has transitioned into a less-taxing role on the wing at even strength in his later years with the emergence of Anthony Cirelli and Brayden Point, as well as the extremely well-advised Nick Paul pickup, making his slightly negative possession impacts over the last two seasons easier to swallow. He was never a beacon of defensive excellence, but he did at least routinely post Corsi shares at even strength above the team’s overall share without him on the ice. That hasn’t been the case since 2021-22.

He’s still an extremely effective player, and given the precedent of other Lightning stars like Point and Nikita Kucherov taking slight discounts on their market value, it likely wouldn’t be prohibitively expensive to re-sign him. But Tampa’s lack of bottom-six scoring and poor defensive depth – especially without a fully healthy Mikhail Sergachev – was exposed in their rather decisive series loss to the Panthers.

The club has $10MM in projected cap space next season, with extensions/replacements also needed for Anthony Duclair, their best secondary scorer since his trade deadline pickup from the Sharks, and blue-liner Mathew Dumba. They’re also losing the $6.875MM of long-term injured reserve flexibility they’ve had from retired defenseman Brent Seabrook’s contract over the past couple of seasons.

Point is still 28. Kucherov is 30. Cirelli is 26. Hedman is 33. Sergachev is 25. Vasilevskiy is 29. Even without Stamkos, it’s a playoff-caliber core for at least two to three more seasons with the right moves. Will that make general manager Julien BriseBois seriously consider prioritizing better depth adds over re-signing the best player in franchise history?

Stamkos said before the 2023-24 season started that he was disappointed in the lack of extension conversations with BriseBois. The six-year GM said in January that he still envisioned Stamkos as part of the roster moving forward but would wait until the offseason to evaluate where the roster stood. The results are as follows: Tampa scored just 36.9% of 5-on-5 goals in the series, a worse share than even the Capitals, who were swept at the hands of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers. Nine players, including most of their bottom six forwards, failed to score a point. Given they got everything they could ask for from their stars – seven points from Hedman, seven assists from Kucherov and five goals from Stamkos, that may very well swing the balance.

So, PHR readers, we now ask you: Are the Lightning better off keeping Stamkos or using offseason cap space to prioritize rebuilding their depth scoring and defense? Have your say in the poll below:

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Which Player Should Win The Hart Memorial Trophy?

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In a season to remember for individual accomplishments, this year’s vote on the eventual winner of the Hart Memorial Trophy will be one of the most complicated in recent memory. However, the vote can be widdled down to four players, which include Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers, Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning, and Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche.

Winning two out of the last three Hart Memorial Trophies, McDavid’s goal-scoring was cut in half this season, as he only managed 32 on the year, placing him tied for 14th in the Western Conference with Wyatt Johnston. However, McDavid was able to do something he had failed to do even during his incredible season last year; crack the 100-assist marker which had previously only been done by Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Bobby Orr. Helping the Oilers return to this year’s playoffs after a difficult start to the year, McDavid’s claim for Most Valuable Player may be overshadowed by his teammate, Zach Hyman, who was able to score 54 goals for Edmonton this season.

Having already scored 60 goals once in his career, Matthews cemented himself as the league’s current best goal-scorer, putting up 69 markers this season. Although he failed to reach 70, Matthews’ regular season was the 15th best all-time in terms of goal-scoring. Unlike McDavid, it is more than unlikely that Matthews will be overshadowed by his teammates with such an incredible season, as the second-closest goal scorer on the team, William Nylander, generated nearly 30 fewer tallies than Matthews in the category.

Having arguably the best case for the award, there is no question that Kucherov led the way for the Lightning this year. Not only did Kucherov tie McDavid in assists this season with 100, he has already captured the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top point-scorer with 144 on the year. While setting the bar for points in any given year is impressive, the gap between Kucherov and his teammates in Tampa Bay was massive, placing himself 54 points above the next highest-scorer.

Setting a record of his own this year, MacKinnon was able to generate at least a point in 35 consecutive home games for the Avalanche this season, which is five less than the record Gretzky set during the 1988-89 season with the Los Angeles Kings. Over that stretch, MacKinnon went on an incredible run, scoring 27 goals and 46 assists through the team’s first 35 games at Ball Arena. On the year, MacKinnon scored 51 goals and 89 assists over 82 games, and may have the case of putting together the most complete season compared to the other candidates.

If the matter was up to you, who would you vote for to win this year’s Hart Memorial Trophy?

If you can’t see the poll embedded above this, click here to vote.

Poll: Who Captures Final Eastern Conference Wild Card Spot?

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A few weeks ago, when the standings were more fluid, we ran a poll inquiring about which teams would grab the final two wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference. Now, with the Tampa Bay Lightning already securing the top spot, there are still four teams fighting over the final spot with less than three games remaining.

The Washington Capitals, who now have the highest odds of capturing the spot with two games remaining, have only produced an 11-9-2 record since the start of March. However, they have picked up key wins in games with playoff implications, defeating the Detroit Red Wings twice, the Pittsburgh Penguins once, and the Philadelphia Flyers once. If the season ended today, the Capitals would line up against the New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs, but will likely have to beat both the Boston Bruins and Flyers in their last two games.

Following the Capitals, the Red Wings kept their postseason dreams alive last night with an overtime win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now tied with Washington in both games played and points, Detroit ultimately loses the tiebreaker due to regulation wins. To get in, the Red Wings will need the Capitals to lose at least one of their final two games, while Detroit must sweep in their home-and-home against the Montreal Canadiens. So far this year, the Red Wings have split with the Canadiens in two games this season, with both games going to overtime.

Behind the Capitals and Red Wings, the Flyers and Penguins are still technically in the hunt but have some very difficult math to get in. The Flyers can only max out at 89 points, with a 7-10-4 since March 1st making their postseason aspirations more and more bleak. Technically earning better odds for a postseason spot than the Flyers, the Penguins can still max out at 90 points on the year, after a 7-1-2 record in their last 10 games has vaulted them into the playoff conversation.

Over their next two games, if the New York Islanders fail to capture a point and both the Capitals and Penguins win their final two, the Capitals would take the third spot in the Metropolitan Division, while the Penguins have the opportunity to capture the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. With several possibilities still up in the air leading into the last few games of the regular season, the Eastern Conference wild-card race is bound to go down to the last minute.

If you can’t see the poll embedded above this, click here to vote.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The Presidents’ Trophy?

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Nearly half of the current playoff field has clinched postseason berths, so attention is quickly turning to playoff positioning battles and who can finish atop the regular-season standings with just over two weeks left in the campaign. The field is crowded at the top, with seven teams within five points of first place.

The Rangers currently hold the edge as the only 50-win team and 104 points (.703 points percentage), ranking among the top six teams in both goals for and goals against. Leading them across the board offensively is winger Artemi Panarin, who should get some outside Hart Trophy consideration with a career-high 44 goals and 107 points. Season-ending injuries to Filip Chytil and Blake Wheeler have damaged their forward depth, but early returns on their trade deadline replacements, Jack Roslovic and Alexander Wennberg, have been positive. With top-five defenseman Adam Fox leading their blue line and one of the better goalie duos in the league this year with Jonathan Quick and Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers are looking to win the Presidents’ Trophy for only the fourth time in their 98-year history and the first since 2014-15.

Moving over to the crowded Central Division, the Stars are keeping pace at the top of the division with an 8-2-0 record in their last 10. Their 103 points and .687 points percentage are both second in the league, but they’ll need some help to catch the similarly hot Rangers, who’ve played one less game. Fuelled by an incredibly deep forward corps and a breakout season from 22-year-old Thomas Harley alongside Miro Heiskanen on the team’s top defense pair, Dallas is chasing its first division title since 2016, when Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza all had 30-goal years and powered the league’s best offense. After shoring up their blue line with deadline pickup Chris Tanev and boosting their third line with the promotion of rookie Logan Stankoven from the minors, the Stars are hoping to make back-to-back Conference Final appearances for the first time since appearing in three straight from 1998 to 2000.

Hot on Dallas’ tails for guaranteed home-ice advantage through Round Three are the breakout Canucks, whose jump from 24th to fourth in goals against has fuelled their first trip to the postseason (sans the 2020 bubble) in nine years. A franchise record-breaking season from Quinn Hughes on the blue line, plus a rebound from Thatcher Demko in the crease, have created the core for what Vancouver hopes is a lengthy era of contention with J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson centering their top two lines. Some view them as the NHL’s flukiest team with a league-high 9.8% shooting percentage and 102.8 PDO at 5-on-5, a narrative they’ll look to dispel by extending their season into May and June.

The new-look Avalanche went big-game hunting at the trade deadline and remain in contention for division and league titles, tied with Vancouver with a .676 points percentage (100 points in 74 games). With new faces Brandon Duhaime, Casey Mittelstadt, Yakov Trenin, and Sean Walker providing reinforcements in the absence of captain Gabriel Landeskog for a second straight season, Colorado will look to stay hot down the stretch and avenge last year’s first-round upset at the hands of the Kraken.

Over in the East, the Bruins, Hurricanes and Panthers remain in the hunt for the regular-season title, but at three or more points behind the Rangers with no games in hand, it seems unlikely with New York on a hot streak. MoneyPuck awards each of them less than a 4% chance at capturing the first-overall crown.

Tell us – who’s your pick to win the Presidents’ Trophy and aim to become the first regular-season champion since 2013 to hoist the Stanley Cup?

Mobile/app users, use this link to vote.

Poll: Who Was The Best Acquisition At The Deadline?

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Now a little over two weeks removed from the NHL trade deadline, many of the players that changed hands have had enough time to play in a handful of games with their new clubs. While transitioning to a new system can be difficult for any player, several players have produced quite well with their new organizations.

In arguably the biggest trade of deadline season, the Pittsburgh Penguins decided to part ways with Jake Guentzel, who had spent the last seven and a half years in Pennsylvania. Now with Pittsburgh’s division rival in the Carolina Hurricanes, Guentzel has come as advertised. Playing on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, Guentzel has scored two goals and 11 points in seven games for the Hurricanes, with three of those assists coming on the powerplay. Furthermore, that top line has proven incredibly difficult to score against for opposing clubs, as Guentzel has already produced a rating of +11 in that short span.

Moving on to one of the more surprising deals from deadline season, the Buffalo Sabres decided to part ways with top center Casey Mittelstadt in exchange for Bowen Byram of the Colorado Avalanche. Struggling to find any consistency in Colorado, Byram has taken on a whole new life in Buffalo. Averaging nearly 24 minutes a night with his new team, Byram has already scored three goals and six points in only eight games. Playing on the top unit with Rasmus Dahlin, this combination could prove to be one of the best in the league over the next several years.

Lastly, in what is looking to be one of the sneakiest pickups of deadline week, the Tampa Bay Lightning acquired Anthony Duclair and a seventh-round pick from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for a third-round pick and prospect Jack Thompson. On the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, Duclair has put up four goals and eight points in six games, with two of those assists coming on the team’s second power-play unit. Even outside of his production, the Lightning are 5-0-1 since acquiring Duclair and have taken a commanding lead on the top wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Now it’s time for a vote, was the best deadline pickup one of these players, or is there another player that has been more valuable to their new team? Vote below!

Poll: Who Grabs Wild Card Spots In The East?

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With the trade deadline in the rearview, and less than 20 games to go in the regular season for most teams, all eyes are now squarely on the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. Like most seasons, several teams are again going down to the wire to qualify for a postseason spot.

Although no teams have been eliminated quite yet, the Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens, and Ottawa Senators will all need record-breaking win streaks to come close to a playoff spot. The Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins, and New Jersey Devils are still well within the mix for the postseason, but it may be too little too late for all three organizations.

That whittles the list down to four: the Detroit Red Wings, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals. Over the last two weeks, even though both the Red Wings and Lightning held comfortable positions in the wild card spots, the Islanders and Capitals have closed the gap considerably with solid 10-game stretches respectively.

Currently in the top spot, Tampa Bay has produced a 4-5-1 record in their last 10 games, while acquiring Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba at the trade deadline. Holding a two-point advantage over Detroit and New York, the Lightning will face off against teams currently in a playoff position eight times over their last 17 games.

Moving north to Detroit, the Red Wings started the 2024 calendar year with a hot stretch, producing a 16-4-2 record after the New Year holiday. Over the last two weeks, however, a completely different hockey team has taken the ice. Currently riding a five game losing streak, Detroit is losing much of their footing in the Eastern Conference wild-card race, being outscored by their opponents by a margin of 17 over that stretch.

Now tied with the Red Wings for the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, the Islanders are willing themselves into a playoff position. Earning a 6-1-0 record in their last seven games, New York has been dominating their opponents in nearly all facets of the game. Not only are the Islanders making a considerable amount of noise in the wild card race, they are only two points removed from knocking off the Philadelphia Flyers as one of the top three teams in the Metropolitan Division.

Lastly, being one of the streakier teams all season, the Capitals find themselves only three points out of the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Producing a 7-3-1 record in their last 11 games, Washington will be one of the few organizations vying for playoff candidacy after selling off a few pieces at the deadline. Life will not get any easier for the Capitals, however, as 13 of their last 19 games will come against opponents currently in a playoff position.

Now its time for you to take the crystal ball for the 2024 Stanley Cup playoff race, which two of these teams will qualify for the wild card spots in the Eastern Conference?

Poll: Which Team Will Trade For Jake Guentzel?

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Over the last several weeks, Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jake Guentzel has been gaining steam as one of the biggest fishes available at this year’s deadline. Even after suffering an injury that will keep him out until the deadline, plenty of competitive teams remain interested in his services for their playoff push.

In tonight’s edition of ’Saturday Headlines’, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Vegas Golden Knights, and Vancouver Canucks as specific teams that have checked in with Pittsburgh regarding Guentzel. Of the five teams listed, factoring in available assets and deadline salary cap space, the Hurricanes, Panthers, and Golden Knights strike as the likeliest landing spots if Guentzel does indeed get moved.

In any trade for Guentzel, a first-round pick will undoubtedly need to go back to Pittsburgh, as well as a young prospect. Just yesterday, the General Manager of the Penguins, Kyle Dubas, told the media that Pittsburgh would place a priority on getting younger in any deal that they make. With the Golden Knights and Panthers having Brendan Brisson and Mackie Samoskevich at their disposal, respectively, they are in advantageous positions to give the Penguins what they are looking for.

All-in-all, there is no guarantee that Pittsburgh will move Guentzel at all, as he has created quite a bond with franchise icon Sidney Crosby over the last several years. Owning a projected $17.54MM available to them on July 1st this summer, the Penguins could opt to sign Guentzel to a long-term contract to take over as the face of the franchise once Crosby’s playing days are over.

Now it’s your turn to vote — will any one of these teams deal for Guentzel by March 8th, or will the Penguins decide to keep him around for the long haul?

If you can’t access the poll above, click here to vote.

Poll: Favorite Hockey Moment Of 2023?

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Now that 2023 is coming to an end in a few hours (depending on which coast you are on), it is time to reflect on some of the big moments of the last 365 days, which there have been plenty of in the NHL.

On April 9th, in their game against the Philadelphia Flyers, the Boston Bruins won their 63rd game of the season, breaking the most wins of the regular seasons previously set by the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning, and 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings. The Bruins would go on to win 65 games last season, cruising to the President’s Trophy, annually awarded to the team with the most points at the end of the regular season. Ultimately, Boston’s winning ways would not continue into the 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoffs, as they were ousted by the eventual Eastern Conference Champion, Florida Panthers, in seven games in the opening round.

Following along with the theme of team accomplishments, the Vegas Golden Knights became the quickest expansion team to win their first Stanley Cup, ousting the Panthers in five games in the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals. Originally founded in 2017, it took the Golden Knights only six seasons to win their first Stanley Cup, beating the previous record of the 1974 Flyers team, which took only seven years from their introduction to the league during the 1967 NHL Expansion.

On an individual level, on the Edmonton Oilers’s last game of the regular season on April 13th, Connor McDavid recorded his 153rd point of the season, by way of an assist against the San Jose Sharks. Because of this, McDavid would pass Bruins’ legend Phil Esposito for the 15th-best scoring season in NHL history, the highest of any player not named Steve Yzerman, Mario Lemieux, or Wayne Gretzky. Winning the Art Ross, Hart Memorial, Ted Lindsay, and Maurice Richard Trophy all in one season, McDavid would go on to have the best individual season in the salary cap era.

Aside from these moments, the NHL has been filled with memorable events in the 2023 calendar year. Now it’s time to pick, is one of these moments one of your favorites, or is there another that stands out?

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