Snapshots: Jarry, Flames, Zadorov
Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now poured cold water on the trade rumors circulating around Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry. The 29-year-old Jarry has seen his name being floated in trade rumors since he sat on the bench for the final 13 games of the regular season. Jarry had an uneven season in Pittsburgh after he signed a five-year $26.875MM contract last summer and eventually lost the net to backup goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic.
Many expected the Penguins to try and trade Jarry this summer, but a deal never came to fruition. Jarry’s trade value isn’t particularly high at the moment and the Penguins have a likely goalie of the future in the AHL in Joel Blomqvist. The Athletics’ goaltender rankings don’t look too kindly on Pittsburgh’s goaltending situation, and at nearly $8MM annually for Jarry and Nedeljkovic for the next two seasons, it’s easy to see why the trade rumors around Jarry have been so popular.
In other news around the league:
- Wes Gilbertson of The Calgary Herald wonders if the Calgary Flames will be a contender when their new arena opens. The Flames are going through a dramatic roster overhaul that has seen them move Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, and Jacob Markstrom out for future assets. The Flames haven’t gone through a change like this since the early 2010s when they moved on from veterans Jarome Iginla and Jay Bouwmeester and they seem better equipped for this rebuild off the ice as they have a larger management team and development staff than they had a decade ago.
- Boston Bruins defenseman Nikita Zadorov sat down with RG.org’s Daria Tuboltseva to discuss free agency and his move to the Eastern Conference. Zadorov said that returning to the Vancouver Canucks was his first choice in free agency, but ultimately, he went to Boston because it gave him the best chance to win and the best situation for his family. Zadorov also revealed that the Canucks and Bruins made offers and one of his former teams, the Colorado Avalanche entered the fray as well. Zadorov signed a six-year $30MM deal with the Bruins on July 1st and figures to play in their top four alongside either Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo.
Metro Notes: Trouba, Smith, Jarry
TSN’s Darren Dreger is reporting that the New York Rangers are willing to retain up to $2.5MM per season if it helps them facilitate a trade for defenseman Jacob Trouba. The Rangers captain has two years remaining with a cap hit of $8MM annually and was reportedly shocked to find his name on the trading block and linked to the Detroit Red Wings.
Trouba’s play has fallen off in recent seasons and while he remains a physical presence on New York’s blueline, his lack of discipline and poor defensive work isn’t justifying his large cap hit. Trouba posted just three goals and 19 assists in 69 games last season and was a -4. While he has never been an analytics darling, Trouba’s CF% cratered last season to 47.2% at even strength.
In other Metropolitan Division notes:
- Josh Yohe of The Athletic is reporting that Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas remains open and willing to trade Reilly Smith but according to sources, the team has been unable to find a dance partner. Smith never settled into Pittsburgh after coming over in a trade from the Vegas Golden Knights for a third-round pick but did have a better second half of the season finishing with 13 goals and 27 assists in 76 games. Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas told the media on Friday that he hoped to collect draft picks and prospects this summer while maintaining a competitive NHL roster, but if that is the ask for Smith it’s difficult to see a team stepping up with that kind of offer until after free agent options have dried up.
- Josh Yohe of The Athletic also spoke about Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry saying that Pittsburgh was willing to move the 29-year-old but weren’t able to find any interested parties. Jarry has four years left on his contract with a cap hit of $5.375MM and has struggled with consistency throughout his career, fading in the second half of several seasons in a row. A number of goaltenders have moved in recent days, but with Jarry’s spotty record and large financial commitment, it’s hard to imagine a team stepping up unless Pittsburgh is willing to retain a large portion of salary to facilitate a deal.
Penguins Notes: Pettersson, Jarry, Smith
Rob Rossi of The Athletic is reporting that the Pittsburgh Penguins and defensemen Marcus Pettersson have a mutual interest in signing a contract extension this summer. The 28-year-old Pettersson has one year left on his five-year contract at a cap hit of $4.025MM and was arguably the Penguins’ most steady defender last year, playing big minutes with both Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson and elevating both players.
The Penguins acquired Pettersson back in December 2018 for forward Daniel Sprong and the Skelleftea, Sweden native quickly became a regular on the Penguins’ back end. Pettersson has never been much of an offensive contributor but did post four goals and 26 assists in 82 games last season while playing 22:40 a game and providing terrific work on the penalty kill.
Pettersson’s next contract is tough to project, but given his contributions of late, it’s not unrealistic to expect his AAV to fall in the range of $5.5MM to $6MM per season on a long-term deal.
In other Penguins notes:
- Rob Rossi of The Athletic is reporting that Tristan Jarry can submit a new 12-team no-trade list to the Penguins on July 1st, which could complicate a potential trade if they don’t move him before that day. Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas would reportedly like to make a hockey trade for Jarry if he chooses to move him and wants to receive back a top-six winger or a top-four defenseman. According to Rossi, the Penguins aren’t in a rush to deal Jarry and are comfortable starting next season with him and recently re-signed Alex Nedeljkovic, as there is some debate about whether top goaltending prospect Joel Blomqvist is ready to take a role in the NHL next season.
- The Penguins are hesitant to bring forward Reilly Smith back for the final season of his contract (as per Rossi). Pittsburgh management doesn’t believe that Smith was unhappy to be a Penguin, but reportedly hoped he would have an easier transition to the team after he came over in a trade from the Vegas Golden Knights. Smith recently changed agents and is now represented by Pat Brisson, who also represents teammate Sidney Crosby. Rossi believes that the Penguins will work with Brisson to determine the best situation for Smith and the team and act accordingly. If that course of action is a trade, then the Penguins will look to move Smith to a destination that suits him. The Penguins offered Smith up at the trade deadline but couldn’t find a dance partner at that time. Smith has one year left on his contract at a $5MM cap hit.
East Notes: Jarry, Chychrun, Provorov
Elliotte Friedman noted on the 32 Thoughts podcast that Pittsburgh Penguins netminder Tristan Jarry is likely available via trade this summer. The 29-year-old signed a five-year $26.875MM contract last summer with the Penguins and put up pedestrian numbers in another inconsistent season and eventually lost the starter role to recently re-signed Alex Nedeljkovic.
Jarry’s contract might have looked unmovable just a few months ago, but given the goalie market and the fact that he is a two-time All-Star, a move seems very possible. Whether the Penguins want to make that move or not is another story, but the fact that they didn’t start him in the final 13 games of the regular season is certainly not a vote of confidence. Jarry went 19-25-5 last season with a .903 save percentage and a 2.91 goals-against average. His underlying numbers were a tick better as he posted 2.6 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck).
In other Eastern Conference notes:
- Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia is reporting that the Ottawa Senators are gauging what the trade market looks like for defenceman Jakob Chychrun. The 26-year-old has one year left on his contract at $4.6MM and will be a prime trade target for many teams looking to improve their backend. Ottawa is reportedly looking for a first-round pick, as well as a second-round pick or a high-end prospect in exchange for Chychrun, a steep price for what could be a one-year rental. Chychrun had a good offensive season last year with 14 goals and 27 assists in 82 games; however, he was -30. Chychrun turned the puck over with alarming frequency last season, committing 73 turnovers, however, his possession numbers were very good with a CF% of 51.2% at even-strength.
- Aaron Portzline of The Athletic lists Ivan Provorov as a potential trade chip for the Columbus Blue Jackets this summer as newly hired general manager Don Waddell tries to improve the struggling team. The 27-year-old Provorov has one season left on his contract with a cap hit of $4.75MM ($2MM retained by Los Angeles) and should receive interest if Columbus decides to move him. Portzline says he would be surprised if Provorov spends the year with the Blue Jackets, given his contractual status and the fact that the Blue Jackets have defenseman Denton Mateychuk turning pro. Mateychuk could be ready to tackle the top four minutes very shortly which could facilitate Provorov’s trade, however, it is important to note that Waddell has a history of being patient with young players and might opt to keep Mateychuk in the AHL for extra seasoning.
Penguins Recall Vinnie Hinostroza, Assign Joel Blomqvist To AHL
The Penguins are set to welcome back Tristan Jarry between the pipes tonight against Buffalo, meaning that they’re now able to return Joel Blomqvist to the AHL. Per a team announcement (Twitter link), they’ve done just that, sending the young netminder down to AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Taking his place on the roster will be forward Vinnie Hinostroza.
Blomqvist was recalled on Thursday and served as the backup to Magnus Hellberg on Thursday night in Los Angeles. The 21-year-old is in his first full season in North America and has yet to see any action at the top level. Blomqvist is off to a nice start with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, posting a 1.91 GAA and a .920 SV% in his first seven appearances; his GAA is the fifth-best among qualifying netminders at the minor league level. He’ll go back to being their undisputed starter with Hellberg, who started the season in the minors, still up with Pittsburgh.
As for Hinostroza, this is already his fifth promotion to the NHL this season as he has frequently been shuffled to and from the minors. The 29-year-old has suited up twice for the Penguins so far, picking up a goal and an assist despite averaging just 9:10 per contest. He has been similarly productive in the minors, collecting two goals and two helpers in five contests. Signed to a one-year contract last summer, Hinostroza is likely to continue to be one of the first forwards recalled when Pittsburgh has the roster and cap space to do so.
East Notes: Laine, Jarry, Zub
Blue Jackets forward Patrik Laine has skated over the past couple of days as he works his way back from an upper-body injury, notes Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch (Twitter link). The 25-year-old got off to a quiet start to his year with a goal and an assist in his first four games while also making the adjustment to playing down the middle on a regular basis. Head coach Pascal Vincent noted that Laine responded well after today’s skate which could be a sign that he could be back sooner than later. When that happens, Hedger notes that the team hasn’t decided if they will move Adam Fantilli back to the wing or if they’ll leave him in his natural center role and put Laine back in his natural wing position.
Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference:
- It appears as if the Penguins will avoid being without their starting goalie for long. Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relays that Tristan Jarry is currently listed as day-to-day after leaving yesterday’s game early against Anaheim. As of yet, it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh hasn’t brought up one of their other AHL goaltenders, a sign that Jarry could be available to at least dress as the backup against Los Angeles. The 28-year-old has a 2.51 GAA and a .907 SV% in nine starts so far this season.
- Earlier today, Senators head coach D.J. Smith expressed optimism that defenseman Artem Zub would be back tonight against Toronto, he wound up being scratched for the seventh straight game, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch (Twitter link). It’s the seventh straight game he has missed with a concussion. With Ottawa also missing Thomas Chabot and Erik Brannstrom at the moment, getting Zub back will be a critical addition but they’ll have to wait a little longer for that to happen.
Injury Notes: Jarry, Cozens, Timmins
Josh Yohe of The Athletic is reporting that Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry left their game last night against the Anaheim Ducks after being bumped in the back of the head by Adam Henrique and then having his mask dislodged. This was just the beginning for Jarry as he was then struck in his unprotected face by a Ryan Strome shot. NHL officials quickly signalled to the Penguins bench and Jarry was rushed off the ice and did not return.
Up to that point, Jarry had been solid for the Penguins making 21 consecutive stops to preserve a 1-0 Penguins lead late into the second period. With Jarry sidelined, the Penguins’ turned to their third-string netminder Magnus Hellberg who made 11 straight saves to maintain the rare two-goalie shutout.
No updates have been given yet on Jarry, but Yohe did report that he was present in the Penguins’ dressing room after the game, which is certainly an encouraging sign. Jarry has struggled to start the year after signing a massive five-year contract extension this summer that was heavily criticized for being too long and too expensive. The Penguins are already without backup goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic until later this month and can ill afford to lose Jarry for any length of time.
In other injury notes:
- Times Herald Reporter Bill Hoppe is reporting that Buffalo Sabres forward Dylan Cozens is back at practice today sporting a full-face shield as he makes his return to the ice after missing two games with an upper-body injury. No specifics have been given about Cozens injury but given that he is sporting face protection and a large bandage on his nose, it would appear to be an injury to that region. Cozens was engaged in a fight with Philadelphia Flyers forward Garnet Hathaway back on November 3rd, a game the Sabres lost 5-1, and acknowledged that this incident was the cause of the ailment. Cozens has three goals and four assists in 11 games thus far this season.
- David Alter of The Hockey News is reporting that Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Conor Timmins is unlikely to get back into the lineup for at least a couple of weeks. Alter spoke with Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe after Timmins practiced with the team this morning, Keefe told the reporter that Timmins will travel with the team to Sweden next week but is unlikely to play. However, the plan is to have him ramp up in practice and he could re-join the lineup after they return from the extended road trip. Timmins has been on LTIR since the beginning of the season after suffering a lower-body injury and has yet to play a game.
Matt Murray Undergoes Successful Surgery
Sportsnet is reporting that Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Matt Murray has undergone successful bilateral hip surgery and is expected to miss between six and eight months. This likely means he will miss the entire 2023-24 NHL season. Murray was acquired from the Ottawa Senators in July 2022 along with a third-round pick in exchange for a seventh-round pick and future considerations. It was essentially a salary cap dump at the time by the Ottawa Senators, who retained over $1.5MM of Murray’s $6.25MM cap hit.
The former two-time Stanley Cup champion has fallen on hard times in recent years as his health has kept him out of the lineup for extended periods of time in each of the past five seasons. Murray hasn’t played more than 30 games in a season since the 2019-20 season when he was a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins. When he has been available to play, he hasn’t been able to match the levels of play that made him a Stanley Cup champion in 2016 and 2017. Murray hasn’t posted a goals-against average below 3.00 since 2019-20 and has seen his save percentage hover around .900 since 2018-19.
Murray has has struggles with his health for a long time now and one must wonder if he will be able to overcome his latest setback and get back into an NHL lineup. The Thunder Bay, Ontario native has never been able to capture the magic that he put on display early in his career and has seen his stock tumble to the point of being a cap dump last summer.
Murray appeared to be on the cusp of superstardom in 2017 when the Penguins elected to keep him over franchise icon Marc-Andre Fleury who was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft. The Penguins had signed Murray to a three-year extension at the time and thought they had an elite netminder that could lead them to more Stanley Cups. Unfortunately, Murray’s play flatlined and he was unseated as the starter by Tristan Jarry. He was then dealt to the Senators in 2020 and signed to an extension in a move that proved disastrous for Ottawa.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jeremy Swayman
Today, The Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman filed their arbitration numbers, and according to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Boston has filed at $2MM for one year, while Swayman has asked for $4.8MM. The 24-year-old netminder and the Bruins have until Sunday to work out a deal before they will go to arbitration.
Swayman’s number is sure to shock some people, but that is typically how this process works. The team files a lowball number, and the player files high. The arbitrator’s decision typically falls somewhere in the middle, as was the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and netminder Ilya Samsonov.
Swayman is coming off the best season of his career and does have considerable leverage in these negotiations. The Anchorage, Alaska native posted a 24-6-4 record this past year with a .920 save percentage and a 2.27 goals-against average. His save percentage was good enough for fourth in the league trailing only Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Swayman’s partner Linus Ullmark. Speaking of Ullmark, his presence complicates the situation with Swayman because he is coming off a career year as well, one in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. Ullmark also has two years left on his contract and is unlikely to be moved this late in the summer.
The Bruins do have a bit of cap space to sign Swayman, however, they will want to keep the cap hit as low as possible since they have other pressing needs throughout their lineup from free agency departures and the retirement of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have a hair under $5.5MM in cap space and could be presented with some major challenges if the arbitrator rules a salary that is close to Swayman’s filing.
For Swayman, he will be looking to cash in on what has been a terrific career thus far. He just completed the three-year-contract entry-level contract that paid him $925K this past season, and while his filing is on the high side, he will likely triple or quadruple his salary this upcoming season.
A lot of teams will take a player to arbitration in the hopes of laying the groundwork for future salary cap management. However, in this case, Boston is just trying to stay cap compliant and keep as much of their team intact as they can.
Filings
Team: $2MM (one-year)
Player: $4.8MM (one-year)
Midpoint: $3.4MM
The Numbers
As mentioned above, 2022-23 saw Swayman have a career year, and while he was phenomenal when he did play, his sample size is still quite small. Swayman has never played in more than 41 games and hasn’t had to carry the workload in Boston since he’s always had the benefit of playing behind a bonafide number-one goaltender. There is a good argument to be made that it isn’t any fault of Swayman’s, and he can only play the games he plays. However, he is asking for starting goaltender money, and up to this point, he hasn’t been a starter. You can look to other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had star backups in Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, but both of those netminders struggled with injuries and inconsistency once they were appointed as starters.
For Swayman, this season wasn’t all that far off from last season. His save percentage was slightly better, and he lost fewer games. However, he also played behind a far superior team than he did in previous seasons. That is also something that critics will point to, Swayman plays behind one of the best teams in the league, and again, that isn’t his fault. But it could be a knock the Bruins use in the ugly process that is arbitration.
From Swayman’s perspective, despite being mostly a backup, he can point to the fact that he’s taken over the net in consecutive postseasons from Ullmark. While that isn’t proof of anything, it does give his arbitration case credibility and showcase that the Bruins view the youngster as an NHL starter.
Swayman is also not a one-year wonder and can point to a few seasons of sustained success at the NHL level. Since he made his NHL debut in 2020-21, he has posted an impressive nine shutouts in 82 starts and is second in the NHL in goals-against average with a 2.40, and he also ranks fifth in save percentage with a .920 career save percentage. Some people might point to those numbers and say Swayman is the benefactor or a good team in front of him, and that is fair. However, if you take a deep dive into his numbers, you will find that over the course of his career, he has posted a ridiculous 33.8 goals saved above expected.
It will be interesting to see how the Bruins value Swayman. Do they see him as a long-term starting netminder, or is their view that he is a strong backup? You have to wonder if the Bruins had more cap space this summer if they wouldn’t try and lock him into a long-term deal at a reasonable cap hit. But that isn’t the world Boston is living in, and unfortunately for them, they are up against the cap and up against a player who has been terrific for them for quite some time.
This is a tough case to pin down due to the volatility of the goaltending position. However, given that the Maple Leafs and Samsonov just went through this process, it seems likely that the arbitrator will rule somewhere close to the middle of the two sides’ filings.
2022-23 Stats: 37GP 24W 6L 4T/O .920SV% 2.27GAA 4SO
Career Stats: 88GP 54W 23L 7T/0 .920SV% 2.24GAA 9SO
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation.
Ilya Samsonov (Maple Leafs) – Samsonov was just awarded a one-year deal for $3.55MM and is the obvious comparison for Swayman. However, it may serve as a “low-end” comparable for what his awarded contract could look like. Swayman is two years younger than Samsonov, and although he has a shorter track record, Swayman’s career numbers are vastly superior. However, if you look at just this past season in a vacuum, their numbers are quite similar. They sport an almost identical save percentage with a .01 difference, Swayman’s goals-against was .06 percent better and Samsonov dressed in five more games. A key point is the perception of the two goaltenders at the end of the year is different, despite coming to similar finales. Samsonov is widely viewed as Toronto’s starter heading into next year, while Swayman is firmly viewed as the Bruins’ backup. This perception could be a difference-maker in the eyes of an arbitrator. But, if they look strictly at the numbers, one will think that Swayman could be staring down a higher salary next year.
Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – This comparison is a bit older, but it still applies to Swayman’s situation, given the flat-cap world we are living in. Jarry signed a three-year, $3.5MM AAV pact with the Penguins after his 2020-21 season, a year where he went 20-12-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average while being named to the all-star game. Unlike Swayman, Jarry ended that campaign firmly viewed as the Penguins goaltender of the future after Matt Murray faltered in the playoffs once again. Pittsburgh knew that Jarry was their goaltender of the future and locked him up to a bridge deal. To that point in his career, Jarry had played just 62 games and had gone 34-20-4. Despite the lack of playing time, the then 26-year-old was viewed as a bonafide starter, something that Swayman might have to wait to be labeled.
Projection
Swayman has been terrific thus far in his career, however, his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $4.8MM AAV ask. However, he’s aiming high, and he has an excellent case to top Samsonov’s $3.55MM contract and Jarry’s $3.5AAV from 2020. I would have to guess that Swayman will be awarded something in the $3.55MM – $3.75MM range.
If Swayman can post numbers similar to what he has done thus far in his career, one would have to think that Boston will push to trade Ullmark next season and finally anoint Swayman as their number-one goalie. Swayman has probably earned a bridge deal at this point but given that he plays on a team as good as the Bruins, there is only so much money to go around. He will have to wait to get his security, but for now, he should get a nice pay bump next season.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Update On Erik Karlsson To Pittsburgh Rumblings
Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote a column today with regard to the Erik Karlsson trade saga. While many of the updates offered were hardly surprising, there were a few pieces of information that gave some insights into how the Pittsburgh Penguins became involved in the trade talks. Pittsburgh always seemed like a team that couldn’t squeeze a player with Karlsson’s cap number into their lineup, but based on the recent reporting it appears that they are the front-runner.
Rossi begins the article by dropping the news that Kyle Dubas reportedly identified Erik Karlsson as a trade target while he was in the interview process with Penguins ownership. Now, aside from the Tristan Jarry extension to this point much of Dubas’ work has been to tinker around the edges of the Penguins lineup. But it does appear that he’s built up the club’s depth in the bottom six and their defense core for the possibility that some players could be shipped out very soon.
Another newer piece of information that Rossi mentions is that Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang have reportedly endorsed the potential Karlsson acquisition and in Letang’s case, he’s even agreed to make changes to his own role within the Penguins lineup. If a potential trade were to go through, Letang would remain as Pittsburgh’s number one defenseman, however, Letang would change his powerplay role to allow Karlsson to quarterback the Penguin’s powerplay.
San Jose was also reportedly interested in defenseman Marcus Pettersson being part of a potential blockbuster, however, Dubas has squashed that notion thus far as head coach Mike Sullivan sees Pettersson and newly acquired defender Ryan Graves as the top two options for the left side of Pittsburgh’s defensive group. Pettersson was terrific for Pittsburgh last season after seeing his name all over trade rumors boards for much of the summer of 2022.
Lastly, Dubas apparently wants to put top-5 protection on any first-round pick he trades in a Karlsson deal and has reportedly floated the idea of putting other conditions such as home-ice advantage on lower-round draft picks that could be involved in the deal.
While it appears that the Penguins are still the front-runner to land the reigning Norris Trophy winner, it doesn’t appear that a trade is imminent anytime soon. Pittsburgh would have to navigate an awful lot of moving parts to push the trade through, however, as we’ve seen in the past these trades can come together quickly when teams are motivated to make the move happen. Regardless of the outcome, it does look like Dubas has plans to continue his makeover of the Penguins roster before the start of the 2023-24 season.