Sean Monahan Could Be Ready For Start Of Season
Freshly acquired Montreal Canadiens center Sean Monahan was a bit of a question mark for the upcoming year after missing the last month of the 2021-22 season and the entire playoffs. Labelled as questionable for the start of the season a few weeks ago, things are looking up for Monahan as his recovery from hip surgery continues. Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis said today that they are being cautious with Monahan, holding him out of scrimmages, but that he will play in preseason games at some point, boding well for his opening-night availability.
The Canadiens received a conditional 2025 first-round pick from the Calgary Flames for taking on the final season of his $6.375MM AAV contract, which was much too rich a price for a cap-strapped Calgary to pay given Monahan’s declining health and production. After Monahan had just eight goals and 23 points in 65 games last season, Montreal is hoping a return to consistent top-nine minutes will help them recoup serious offensive value in the final season of Monahan’s deal, and maybe even flip him at this year’s trade deadline with some salary retained.
Monahan told the media last month that “he’s ready to play hockey again at a high level.” It will take a lot of patience and conditioning for Monahan to sniff his previous 30-goal, 60-point-calibre play, but St. Louis seems to understand that. Monahan will be competing for time down the middle with Nick Suzuki, Christian Dvorak, Jake Evans, and Kirby Dach, who could likely shift to the wing.
Montreal opens their preseason on Monday at home against the New Jersey Devils.
Snapshots: Dach, Sharks Rookie Tournament, Stadium Series
After being originally reported by Sportsnet’s Eric Engels last week, his colleague Elliotte Friedman confirmed the original report today on the 32 Thoughts podcast. Echoing the fact that the Canadiens and Dach are close to signing Dach to a four-year contract, he added that the team is likely working on other moves before making the deal official.
Cap implications aside, the team will likely need to trade a forward (or two) just to have space for Dach in the lineup. With the addition of Sean Monahan into the fold for next season, Dach will likely shift to wing. He has the most experience there out of Montreal’s five natural centers in their top 12 forwards. With Cole Caufield, Mike Hoffman, Josh Anderson, Jonathan Drouin, Evgenii Dadonov, and Brendan Gallagher all in the fold, there’s just not enough room in Montreal’s NHL lineup to have Dach play an appropriate role to continue developing. Cap implications are certainly a part of that, though, as a $3.5MM cap hit as surmised by Friedman and Engels would still put Montreal dangerously close to the salary cap even with Carey Price‘s $10MM cap hit on long-term injured reserve.
- The San Jose Sharks are hosting this year’s 2022 Rookie Faceoff, a voluntary tournament for teams’ rookie camp rosters to get some game experience against each other. The Anaheim Ducks announced their participation today, noting that the Arizona Coyotes, Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, and Vegas Golden Knights will also participate. The tournament will feature nine games in total across four days from September 16 through September 19. Anaheim has not lost a rookie tournament game in regulation since 2016, going 11-0-2 in the process.
- The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro reports that American coverage of the 2023 Stadium Series game will be on ESPN after TNT/Turner Sports hosted coverage last season. ESPN will broadcast the Carolina Hurricanes’ first-ever outdoor game as they host the Washington Capitals at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh on February 18, 2023. Shapiro also adds that the full slate of American national TV games is expected to come out later this week as the regular season approaches.
Morning Notes: Price, Monahan, McMorrow
The Montreal Canadiens would like a healthy Carey Price to be leading them onto the ice every night. But since that’s not a possibility right now, taking the entire year (and perhaps the rest of his career) off might actually be the best option for the team. Eric Engels’ latest column for Sportsnet examines the Price situation, his current injury status, and how his absence actually might benefit the team in the long run, thanks to the salary cap system.
In it, he also suggests that the Canadiens’ competitive window likely won’t be until 2025, at which point even a healthy Price would be 38. Even if it happened sooner than that, the veteran goaltender’s time leading Montreal is all but over.
- With Sean Monahan undergoing his own hip surgery earlier this year, Canadiens fans were wondering whether he would even be ready for the start of the season, after acquiring him yesterday. The veteran center is hoping so and told the media that he’s already back on the ice four times a week preparing for the season. He feels healthy and ready to “play hockey again at a high level.” While the Canadiens landed a first-round pick for Monahan already, if he can reclaim any sort of semblance of his former self, they may be able to flip him for even more.
- The Denver Pioneers are having a good week, and it continues with the commitment of top prospect Brendan McMorrow. The 16-year-old will be joining the U.S. National Team Development Program this year, with his sights set on the 2024 draft and a freshman season at DU in 2024-25. So much for the second-round pick that the Spokane Chiefs used on the young forward in the 2021 WHL US Prospects draft.
Breaking Down The Sean Monahan Trade Conditions
Seeing conditional draft picks get dealt is commonplace in this day and age. However, the stipulations on them are usually easy enough to understand. Whether it’s a third-round pick dropping down to a fourth if a player doesn’t play enough games for their new team, or a second-round pick upgrading to a first if the team in question wins the Stanley Cup, the conditions on trades are sensible, at least for the majority of the time.
The Montreal Canadiens seem to buck that trend, though. Starting with some lengthy conditions on the Christian Dvorak trade prior to last season, the Canadiens have agreed to an even more complex (and frivolous, depending on who you ask) set of conditions on the 2025 conditional first-round pick that they acquired today from the Calgary Flames, along with Sean Monahan. So much so that it’s worth its own post, with reference drawn from CapFriendly’s posting and reporting on the topic.
There are three possible umbrella scenarios that could determine which draft pick Montreal actually receives:
Scenario 1: If Calgary’s 2024 first-round pick falls between 20th and 32nd overall, Montreal can elect to receive Calgary’s 2024 first instead of their 2025 first.
Scenario 2: Calgary receives the 2025 lottery-protected first-round pick sent to them by the Florida Panthers in the Jonathan Huberdeau trade.
Scenario 3: Calgary does NOT receive Florida’s 2025 lottery-protected first-round pick.
Scenario 1
This is easily the simplest and potentially most likely scenario if the Flames are still rolling strong two years from now. If Montreal opts to swap out an unknown 2025 first-rounder for a late 2024 first-rounder, then the trade tree ends and Montreal receives no additional compensation.
Scenario 2
Now, things get complex with the addition of Florida’s 2025 lottery-protected first-round pick. In the event that both the Flames’ and Panthers’ 2025 first-round picks are NOT in the top 10, the Canadiens will receive the better of the two selections.
However, if the Flames’ 2025 first-round pick is a top 10 pick and the Panthers’ pick is not, Montreal is guaranteed to receive the Panthers’ pick. If the opposite is true, Montreal will receive Calgary’s selection.
Scenario 3
This is the most unlikely yet most complex scenario. If Florida’s 2025 first-round pick ends up as a top-ten choice, they’ll retain the pick and send their 2026 first-rounder to Calgary instead. This has two possible implications for Montreal:
If Calgary’s 2025 first is NOT top 10: Montreal will receive Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick, and, if Florida’s 2025 first-round pick is not top ten, but was transferred to another team due to prior conditions AND is a better pick than Calgary’s, Montreal will also receive Calgary’s 2025 fourth-round pick as compensation.
If Calgary’s 2025 first is top 10: If Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick is first overall, Montreal will receive the better of Florida’s and Calgary’s 2026 first-round picks AND Calgary’s 2025 third-round pick. If Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick falls between selections 2 through 10, Montreal will receive the pick.
All in all, if the reported conditions are correct, the Canadiens have the potential to receive one of the following five outcomes:
2024 Calgary first-round pick
2025 Calgary first-round pick + potential 2025 Calgary fourth-round pick
2025 Florida first-round pick
2026 Calgary first-round pick + 2025 Calgary third-round pick
2026 Florida first-round pick + 2025 Calgary third-round pick
Calgary Flames Sign Nazem Kadri
The Calgary Flames may have lost Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, but they certainly aren’t rebuilding. After trading Sean Monahan to the Montreal Canadiens to clear enough cap space, the team has signed free agent forward Nazem Kadri to a seven-year, $49MM ($7MM AAV) contract. PuckPedia has the full details:
- 2022-23: $4.5MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
- 2023-24: $4.5MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
- 2024-25: $4.5MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
- 2025-26: $4.5MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
- 2026-27: $6.0MM salary + $1.0MM signing bonus
- 2027-28: $7.0MM salary
Kadri, 31, came into the summer as one of the top free agents on the market after an incredible season with the Colorado Avalanche that included a career-high 87 points and resulted in a Stanley Cup championship. It’s not often a player of that caliber sits on the open market for more than a month but it appears as though the Flames and general manager Brad Treliving (whose birthday is today) are going to be the beneficiaries. Kadri comes to town along with Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar, completely changing the look of the team and essentially replacing the production of Gaudreau and Tkachuk.
Treliving released the following statement:Nazem is a highly competitive top six player who makes our centre ice position deep. He brings a high skill level and determination to our group combined with his recent experience of a Stanley Cup championship. We look forward to welcoming Nazem and his family to Calgary and his contributions to our team’s ultimate success.
The issue some will point to is the age of the two-way pivot, who will turn 32 in October, and how he had never really come close to his 2021-22 level of production previously. While that is true, Kadri also offers some things outside his overall offensive production that can make him a valuable part of the team. A strong defensive player who has received Selke Trophy votes on three occasions, he is also willing to engage physically and has had a knack for scoring at clutch moments. Avalanche fans will fondly remember his first playoff run with the team when he led all postseason players with five game-winning goals in just 15 appearances.
Of course, as good as those two performances were, you can’t discuss Kadri without mentioning his other postseason escapades. Three times–twice for the Toronto Maple Leafs and once for Colorado–he has been suspended in the playoffs, arguably costing his team a chance at advancing. While he can say that part of his game is behind him, the most recent incident was just a year ago, and there’s no guarantee he won’t do something to jeopardize his team again in the future.
Still, adding a player like this to the mix keeps the Flames’ competitive window wide open, at least for the next couple of seasons. The Huberdeau extension and this long-term deal for Kadri will likely not end well, though, with the salary cap expected to increase significantly down the road, they at least will get some relief.
One other thing that might be brought up is how Kadri blocked a trade to the Flames just a few years ago, when the Maple Leafs tried to send him west in exchange for T.J. Brodie. The London, Ontario native explained that decision earlier this year in a piece for the Player’s Tribune, saying that it had nothing to do with Calgary and everything to do with trying to stay in Toronto, where he wanted to win. The Maple Leafs would end up sending him to Colorado, a team he couldn’t block, and signed Brodie in free agency instead.
The only way the Flames can afford a player like Kadri is by moving out considerable salary, and that’s what a Monahan trade represents. The 27-year-old forward has a $6.375MM cap hit for next season and has completely fallen off a cliff in terms of production over the last few years. Once a consistent 30-goal, 60-point center, Monahan had just eight goals and 23 points in 65 games this year while seeing his ice time drop to just 14 minutes a night. Injury has hampered his game significantly, and there’s no telling at this point if he’ll ever get back to being a top-six contributor.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Montreal Canadiens Acquire Sean Monahan
After news broke that the Calgary Flames will be signing Nazem Kadri, the obvious move to clear cap space was trading away Sean Monahan‘s contract. That will be the case as Monahan is headed to the Montreal Canadiens.
Given Kadri’s reported $7MM cap hit, the swap represents just a $625K cap increase for the Flames, who were on the hook for the final season of Monahan’s seven-year, $44.625MM contract. Moving from Monahan to Kadri will cost them more than that though, as Calgary is sending a conditional 2025 first-round pick to the Canadiens in order for them to take the whole contract. Montreal will send future considerations (nothing) back.
The reason the trade took so long to work out is the set of conditions, which are some of the most complicated the league has ever seen.
- If Calgary’s 2024 first is pick 20-32, Montreal has the option to take that pick (must decide before draft starts).
- If Florida’s 2025 first transfers to Calgary (from the Matthew Tkachuk trade) then:
- If Calgary and Florida’s 2025 firsts are both outside the top-10, Montreal will receive the earlier one OR
- If Calgary’s 2025 first is inside the top-10 and Florida’s is not, Montreal will receive Florida’s
- If Florida’s 2025 first does not transfer to Calgary then:
- If Calgary’s 2025 first is not in the top-10, Montreal will receive it AND
- If Florida’s 2025 first is not in the top-10, it has been transferred to another team, and is better than Calgary’s 2025 pick, Montreal will receive Calgary’s 2025 fourth-round pick
- If Calgary’s 2025 first is in the top-10, Montreal will receive it UNLESS
- If it is the first-overall selection, Calgary will retain the 2025 first, and Montreal will receive Calgary’s 2025 third-round pick, and the better of Calgary and Florida’s 2026 firsts.
- If Calgary’s 2025 first is not in the top-10, Montreal will receive it AND
For the Canadiens, who are trying to orchestrate a full rebuild under new general manager Kent Hughes, going after Monahan is a no-brainer. Adding a premium future asset for nothing more than a year of wasted cap space is exactly how you move things along, even though they will have to make some adjustments if Monahan is healthy enough to play after hip surgery earlier this year.
“Healthy enough to play” seems to be the operative phrase in Montreal right now, as their cap situation could vary wildly depending on the status of Carey Price. If the veteran goaltender is placed on long-term injured reserve again, the team would have some added flexibility. If he does play, it will be interesting to see how the Canadiens fit Monahan in.
Regardless, this is likely not a competitive year for the Canadiens, even though they’ve added some young talent, meaning they can take on salary without any real risk. In fact, should Monahan prove healthy enough, he might even be a nice deadline chip for the team to re-sell. While he is cost-prohibitive at his full cap hit, a retained Monahan for the last part of the season could be an attractive target for contenders looking to add some depth.
Free Agent Profile: Phil Kessel
In his peak throughout the 2010s, Phil Kessel was a consistent 30-goal threat, displaying his electric shooting talent en route to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships with the Pittsburgh Penguins (and with the Toronto Maple Leafs before that). While Kessel’s move to Arizona for the last three seasons may have left him forgotten in some circles, he’s coming off his best season in three years.
Despite a career-low 4.6 shooting percentage, Kessel will pitch his relatively high point total, especially given the poor state of affairs in Arizona, to convince teams he’s still a credible threat. And, looking at his strong play-driving numbers from last season, he may have a point. Despite seeing his ice time dip to its lowest point during his three years in Arizona, Kessel still managed to finish within 11 points of the team lead at age 34.
It’s not often that a 34-year-old is on the open market with a strong reason to invest in a rebound season, but that’s the case with Kessel. Even if his defense hasn’t been pretty lately, it was never a selling point to his game. Considering his career average shooting percentage sits over 10 percent, expecting Kessel to have a stronger offensive season in 2022-23, at least in terms of putting pucks in the net, is a safe bet.
His Stanley Cup pedigree should also make him an attractive option for teams looking for affordable depth to help push them over the hump to a Stanley Cup.
Stats
2021-22: 82 GP, 8-44-52, -24 rating, 40 PIMs, 175 shots, 45.3 CF%, 16:41 ATOI
Career: 1204 GP, 399-557-956, -148 rating, 372 PIMs, 3700 shots, 49.3 CF%, 18:02 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Kessel should find a home before a lot of other veterans are forced to settle for PTOs as training camps begin. While he’s not what he used to be, he still had more than 50 points last season. With his low price tag, he should be an attractive option as teams continue to tinker with their rosters during the month of August.
There could be a spot for him in the bottom six of a retooled Calgary Flames forward group. While Jakob Pelletier is a strong candidate to make a jump to the NHL next season after a strong season in Stockton, Kessel could challenge other veterans such as Milan Lucic or Sean Monahan for playing time at a cheaper price and more goal-scoring upside. He could go Cup-chasing with the Colorado Avalanche as well, as they’ve lost some depth forwards such as Andre Burakovsky and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. He could also stand to be a solid secondary scoring option for the Minnesota Wild after they lost Kevin Fiala.
If he wants to head back East, the New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers are a trio of teams that could use him in their bottom six.
Projected Contract
Kessel came in 23rd on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. While he likely won’t command the $2MM AAV we predicted at this point, there’s still a solid chance he could earn seven figures and not have to settle for a league minimum deal. It all likely depends on the cap situation of the team Kessel opts to sign with, as after over $90MM in career earnings, per CapFriendly, money likely won’t be a huge factor in his decision.
East Notes: Mikheyev, Chytil, Monahan
A few days ago, we covered reports stating that the Toronto Maple Leafs had made it clear to teams across the league that they would be open to trading the early negotiating rights to Ilya Mikheyev to any interested teams. Now, we have some more clarity on what those interested teams might look like. According to TSN’s Chris Johnston, there look to be many. Johnston reports that “as many as half the teams” in the NHL are expected to hold at least some interest in acquiring Mikheyev this summer, and adds that Mikheyev is looking for a deal “in the $4MM range,” if not higher.
Such a vast level of interest in Mikheyev is not a complete surprise. The speedy, undrafted Russian winger scored 21 goals and 32 points in 53 games this season, bouncing back from an off 2020-21 where he only had seven goals and 17 points in 54 games. While not the largest reason for each team’s success, both the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning feature premium middle-of-the-lineup players, and it’s likely that the teams interested in him consider him a “premium” middle-sixer. The NHL is a “copycat” league, so it’s very possible that the playoff success of relatively comparable players such as Artturi Lehkonen or Nick Paul has grown Mikheyev’s market. The more teams that enter a bidding war for his services, the more likely Mikheyev is to earn the type of contract the desires. So if anything, Johnston’s reporting is great news for Mikheyev and his camp, and could also be an early sign of the type of players that will be in high demand on July 13th.
Now, for some other notes regarding Eastern Conference teams:
- The New York Rangers could lose both Andrew Copp and Ryan Strome this summer, two top-six players who were important pieces of the team’s run to the Eastern Conference Final. Those losses will likely leave a hole at the Rangers’ second-line center slot, and the Rangers will need to find a replacement this summer. One way the team can find a replacement is in the trade market, and according to The Athletic’s Arthur Staple, that’s something they’re considering. (subscription link) Per Staple, two league sources noted that center Filip Chytil, the hero of the team’s second-round victory over the Carolina Hurricanes, is the “most talked-about” Ranger in GM Chris Drury‘s trade conversations, and that “the Rangers are willing to lose Chytil in order to acquire an older, more established top-six center.” Chytil, a 2017 first-round pick, is a veteran of over 250 NHL games despite being just 22 years old. He had 22 points in 67 games this season and his strong playoff performance could motivate the Rangers to “sell high” on him if they don’t view him as part of their long-term plans.
- One player who could potentially fill the Rangers’ second-line center need is Calgary Flames pivot Sean Monahan. Per Staple, Monahan “has been discussed in trade talks” with the Rangers. Monahan, 27, has seen his career derailed due to injuries as of late, and was placed on long-term injured reserve following hip surgery. If the Rangers believe in Monahan’s ability to re-discover the form that saw him score between 20 and 30 goals for seven straight seasons, then the Rangers could acquire him at an asset cost that would likely be far lower than the cost it would take to acquire a more in-demand center.
Sean Monahan To Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery
Calgary’s center depth has taken a hit as the team announced (Twitter link) that Sean Monahan is set to undergo hip surgery and will miss the remainder of the season. Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson clarifies (via Twitter) that the injury is the opposite hip to the one that was surgically repaired last summer.
This is certainly a tough way to end what has definitely been a tough season for the 27-year-old. While several Flames forwards have had strong years offensively, Monahan went in the opposite direction, notching just eight goals and 15 assists in 65 games with his goal and point totals being the lowest of his nine-year NHL career. Calgary made Monahan a healthy scratch last month after bringing in Calle Jarnkrok to serve as their center on the third line and playing time had been hard to come by since then.
Calgary will place Monahan on LTIR and with a $6.375MM AAV, they will have ample cap space to bring up recalls if they want although they will use up the little bit of banked cap space they have in doing so. In the meantime, Ryan Carpenter, who was acquired from Chicago back at the trade deadline, seems likely to be used in a more regular capacity in Monahan’s absence.
Meanwhile, the Flames also announced that defenseman Oliver Kylington is listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. Connor Mackey has been recalled from AHL Stockton to take his place. Mackey played in six games with Calgary last season, recording three points while he has 36 points in 53 games in the minors this season.
Morning Notes: Monahan, Maple Leafs, Gallagher
Sean Monahan appears to be headed for the press box. The Calgary Flames center was skating as an extra at yesterday’s practice according to Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet and might end up a healthy scratch for tonight’s matchup against the Arizona Coyotes. Monahan, 27, had played in all 63 games this season but has seen his ice time continually drop, to the point where he was used for fewer than ten minutes earlier this week.
Under contract through the 2022-23 season and carrying a cap hit of $6.375MM, Monahan has basically seen his role with the Flames completely disappear. Whether an offseason trade (or buyout) takes him out of Calgary still remains to be seen, but unless something drastic changes down the stretch, it appears as though he is on the outside looking in following the additions of Tyler Toffoli, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ryan Carpenter.
- Jake Muzzin was at Toronto Maple Leafs practice in a red no-contact jersey, but Ondrej Kase was nowhere to be found, after the forward suffered another head injury a few days ago. As Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star writes, Muzzin–who is also working his way back from a concussion–may end up out until Jack Campbell, dealing with a rib injury, is ready to return. That’s because of a tricky cap situation in Toronto, though the team has found creative ways around their obstacles in the past. With Rasmus Sandin now out and Travis Dermott traded to Vancouver, the Maple Leafs could certainly use Muzzin’s help, even after acquiring Mark Giordano at the deadline.
- More bad news for the Montreal Canadiens, as Brendan Gallagher is out for a week with a lower-body injury. Like most Montreal players, this season has been a dreadful one for the 29-year-old Gallagher, who has just five goals and 14 points in 43 games. Those are both easily career-lows, and numbers that certainly aren’t good enough for a player carrying a $6.5MM cap hit. Gallagher is signed through 2026-27 and will hopefully bounce back in 2022-23.