PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the quiet deadline for the Red Wings, a look at the offseason head coaching market, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gowings2008: Why has Yzerman stood pat in terms of trades and call-ups? Follow up, do you think Yzerman sees the team’s window as Seider and Raymond’s primes and is using Larkin’s prime to give the younger prospects time to mature?

I was surprised to see Detroit largely stand pat at the trade deadline.  I didn’t have them making a big splash but with the cap space they have, I thought they’d get in on the cheaper buys.  The fact there were some low-cost additions for teams that were simply willing to take on the full freight of the contract only made me more surprised as that was the type of move for them to make.

It came out after the deadline that Yzerman was hesitant to move their top picks and prospects.  I completely agree with that decision.  But flipping a late-round pick for an upgrade up front was something they could have done.  From a recall perspective, teams are capped at four non-emergency recalls from here to the end of the season.  They’ve already used three (Jonatan Berggren after being papered down while Austin Czarnik and Simon Edvinsson were converted to regular recalls once emergency conditions on their promotions ended).  They can’t do much more on that front.

I think Yzerman sees this team as being a couple of years away from contention which lines up with your follow-up question.  I suspect he’s hoping Dylan Larkin is still in his prime at that time but the hope is that their prospects should be starting to become key contributors at that time.  Those players will be on their entry-level deals, giving them ample cap space to take a big swing on the open market to upgrade as well.

rule78.1: What do the Red Wings do with the following UFA/RFA forwards this coming offseason now that weaknesses with them have been exposed?

Kane
Raymond
Perron
Veleno

I fully expect them to take a run at re-signing Patrick Kane.  39 points in 39 games is quite impressive and frankly, better than I was expecting.  There is going to be some risk here, however, with the track record of players coming back from his surgery not being the strongest.  He was willing to take a one-year deal this time but that shouldn’t be the case in the summer.  Anything over two years might make Yzerman hesitant.  I think Perron is in a similar situation.  At the right price point and term (again, probably a maximum of two years), I think they’d be interested in re-signing him.  But right now, I think he’s likelier to move on with the team turning to the open market to replace him.

As for the RFAs, it’s a bit easier to forecast.  Raymond is getting signed, it’s only a matter of bridge or long-term.  I think Moritz Seider gets the long-term deal while Raymond gets a two-year bridge around Perron’s current price point of $4.75MM.   Joe Veleno didn’t have much leverage last summer which is why he settled for just $825K.  He hasn’t shown enough for a long-term contract just yet but another one-year agreement feels likely for him.  With arbitration rights, he could more than double that AAV.  He has been a bit underwhelming for a first-round pick but there’s still room for him in Detroit’s long-term core.

Unclemike1526: I hate to keep harping on the Hawks’ goaltending but they have to do something next year, right? Now that Mrazek is here for two more years and that’s cool, can we count on him to have another injury-free year? I think we’ve all seen that Soderblom isn’t any kind of answer. Is Commesso going to be ready next year? Gajan is the future but at least two years away. Basse might not even sign here. They need to get some kind of bridge guy to the young guys and the future. I mean if Mrazek goes down next year without that guy they might as well phone in the games. A decent vet on a one-year deal who can hold down the fort just in case. Right? Thanks as always.

Do they have to do something?  Probably not.  Mrazek is there and if they’re not ready to pull the plug on Arvid Soderblom, they could very well run with those two next season.  They could then look to a veteran third-stringer to pair with Drew Commesso in the minors but that squeezes out Jaxson Stauber.  If they don’t want to have Soderblom (or Stauber) in the backup role next year, then Soderblom pairs with Commesso and yes, then a veteran on a one-year deal makes a whole lot of sense.  Frankly, a two-year deal would be more than defensible given Mrazek’s injury history; expecting Mrazek to be healthy would be risky.

Speaking of Commesso, I think you need to adjust your expectations for NHL readiness.  Over the years, I’ve read plenty of interviews with team executives who say they’d like a young goalie to have between 100 and 150 AHL games before moving up; there’s a reason they typically are promoted a lot slower than skaters do.  Commesso is currently at 30 games where he has been decent but not elite.  I don’t think he’ll be ready next season and unless he’s flat-out dominating the league for an extended stretch next year, I don’t think he’ll be ready for 2025-26 either.  That isn’t to say they couldn’t give him a few starts here and there when injuries strike on the NHL tandem but in terms of being a regular, he has a long way to go.

I’ll quickly comment on Adam Gajan as well who you have as at least two years away.  I’d add several years to that timeline.  He’s not having a great final season in the USHL which doesn’t help but most goalies play at least three years in college (like Commesso did).  Goalies basically never make the jump from the NCAA to the NHL as, again, teams want lots of AHL action before promoting them full-time.  Accordingly, I’d peg Gajan as five years away from being an NHL regular, possibly closer to six.  There’s reason for optimism for the future in goal but patience will be required.

Gmm8811: There are currently four interim coaches behind the benches. In my opinion, none of them will be hired next season as the full-time bench boss. Odds of Quenneville being reinstated? Thoughts on new hires? Recycle former coaches or new blood coming aboard?

First, let’s list the four interim coaches – Jim Hiller (Los Angeles), Travis Green (New Jersey), Jacques Martin (Ottawa), and Drew Bannister (St. Louis).  We know for sure that Martin won’t be back and I’d be surprised if Hiller was.  I think there’s a chance that Green sticks around if the Devils do well down the stretch and sneak into that final playoff spot.  As for Bannister, I think he will stay on in the full-time role.  The Blues aren’t going to be contenders over the next few years so a developmental coach like Bannister might be the right fit.  They’ve played well enough since he took over that I could see him getting a three-year deal.

I expect someone will take a real run at Joel Quenneville this offseason.  By then, he’ll have been out of the game for nearly three years now.  Will that be long enough for him to be reinstated?  I wouldn’t call it a lock but if I had to handicap it, maybe 80/20 that he is.

As for the vacancies, it’ll be the usual mixture of some first-time hires and others getting a second (or third) opportunity.  For first-time hires, Jon Gruden and Jay Leach I think will be strong candidates.  Gruden has been speculatively linked to Ottawa’s opening for a while now and Leach had some interest last year.  For the recycled options as you termed it, I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Berube lands another opportunity.  Dean Evason likely will get some inquiries as well and I wonder about Jay Woodcroft.  I know the fact Edmonton took off after they let him go doesn’t help but he helped turn things around when he took over and is still a young coach.  The chance to get a newer blood type of coach with some NHL experience could be appealing to some teams so I think he’ll have some interviews as well.

Schwa: Any predictions on where the top college free agents end up and who has the best chance of contributing early on? Is there a different format or process in this free agency than that of the summer FA? Thanks!

In terms of predicting where they end up, it’s a giant dart throw.  This isn’t a situation where some teams have more cap space than others which would be a difference-maker in discussions.  All teams are capped at offering entry-level deals so there will be little to no difference between them.  For some players, it’ll be about playing close to home.  For others, they’ll be targeting a team willing to burn a year of the contract now.  Others will look at depth charts and try to find a team with thin depth to give them a better chance of being recalled.  Meanwhile, some others will look for teams with better track records of prospect development.  With each player having a different priority, it’s really hard to forecast who the top contenders will be.

As for who has the best chance of contributing early, I think defenseman Dylan Anhorn could be a candidate to burn a year right away and see a handful of games down the stretch.  Winger Collin Graf will be highly sought after and should start his entry-level pact right away.  Note that these players – or any undrafted college free agent signing – will only be eligible to play until the playoffs.

There isn’t necessarily a different process to college free agency (teams can speak to agents/family advisors to work out a contract) but how it plays out is a bit different.  Unlike July 1st, not all players will be looking to sign right away as once they sign, they can’t play anymore in college.  Accordingly, players will wait until their campaign comes to an end.  For some, that has already happened while for others, that might not occur until closer to mid-April.  As a result, the flow of players is more gradual instead of the typical free-for-all we see on July 1st.

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In our final pre-deadline mailbag, topics include the upcoming trade deadline, Washington’s offensive struggles this season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two editions focusing on the Central Division and the Eastern Conference.

Emoney123: Can Briere make a move that balances the playoff drive and rebuilding goals?

Anyone else besides Laughton, Walker, and Seeler likely or could be traded?

Save the draft picks and prospects and look forward to making a splash in the offseason with a signing such as RFA Elias Pettersson?

Such an approach is doable in theory but is often hard to thread the needle on.  To do it, they need to sell high on their rentals to get the future assets and then take on some high-priced players for a low cost (late-round pick or a lower-end unsigned prospect) that hopefully keeps them afloat for the final spot in the Metropolitan Division.  How many teams will be looking to dump pricey expiring deals for just the value of getting the remaining money off the books?  I’m sure there will be some players available but enough to offset the loss of their others who will be more impactful?  I’m less sure about that one.

Beyond Scott Laughton, Sean Walker, and Nick Seeler, I don’t see too many more trade options.  Someone might want Marc Staal for a late-round pick with the experience he has.  If they’re still open to moving Morgan Frost, maybe the right deal comes around there.  I’m not as sold on his potential availability as I was earlier in the season, however.  If they make a move for a goalie, I could see Felix Sandstrom being part of a return going the other way so I suppose he’s in the mix to move as well.

While Pettersson has clearly now signed, I want to address the general idea of the question.  If you wanted the Flyers to make an RFA signing of that level of significance, you’re talking about giving up four unprotected first-round picks for the right to pay someone a contract that will be well above market value.  That’s not justifiable for pretty much any team at that level of a contract and certainly not for a team like the Flyers with where they are in their rebuild, a process that is still closer to the beginning than the end.  This is still a longer-term process that they’re in so it’s not the right time for them to be moving picks and prospects for established pieces.

Schwa: Set of Deadline questions:

1) What teams do you expect to make a splash for bigger names versus teams who will focus on role players?

2) Who is the biggest name you expect to move?

3) Who is the biggest rumored name you suspect will stay put?

As always, thanks for your input!

1) I could see Vegas making a splash.  They’re certainly no stranger to swinging big and with Mark Stone out for the rest of the regular season (and quite possibly longer), they now have the LTIR flexibility to make an impact of some significance.  Florida and Colorado also come to mind as teams aiming high.  The Panthers very quietly have ample regular cap space although they’re lacking top picks to trade.  Colorado, meanwhile, doesn’t have the cap room but if they’re able to move out Ryan Johansen, I could see them making a big move as well.

At the other end of the spectrum, I could see Detroit shopping there.  Here’s a team that has done well this season but is still not near the level that they need to be to have a deep playoff run.  There’s value in giving their youngsters some playoff experience though so I could see them using their cap space to add.  I also have Los Angeles here, not because they only want to do something small but because that’s about all they can do; with Viktor Arvidsson and Adrian Kempe expected back by the end of the season, they don’t have longer-term LTIR flexibility which means they’re pretty much money in, money out.

2) Two names come to mind, neither of which are particularly surprising.  Since Noah Hanifin doesn’t appear to be interested in signing an extension with the Flames, they’re in a spot where they need to move him.  I expect he’ll be the top blueliner off the board.  I’m not of the belief that it’s going to be a big trade deadline with a bunch of notable names moved; it’ll be quieter than this year.  So up front, Jake Guentzel is the biggest one I think gets moved.  It certainly feels like the expectation around him has shifted from a maybe on the trade front to probable with Pittsburgh realizing that even if he stays, they’re aiming for a likely first-round exit.  If they can’t re-sign him (and it stands to reason that if they were close, we’d be hearing about it), then he should be moved.

3) We’ve seen plenty of speculation surrounding Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom to the point where he has been featured prominently on some ‘trade bait’ boards.  I’m not as bullish as they are on the idea of moving him right now.  The Flames more or less have a one-team market for his services, New Jersey.  While I acknowledge the Devils might be desperate for an impactful addition, how much can Calgary elicit from a one-team bidding war?  In the summer, the Devils could still very well be looking for a goalie and perhaps some others too.  If GM Craig Conroy thinks he can get a better deal then compared to now (and I suspect he will think that), then Markstrom likely stays put, at least for a few more months.

Dayvisferreras: Any chance the Caps change head coaches for next season? I can’t tell if it’s the roster underachieving on offense or Carbery’s coaching system.

I suppose it’s possible that GM Brian MacLellan feels a coaching change is needed but I wouldn’t be expecting it to happen.  This is a coach who was well-known for getting lots of his groups offensively and while yes, the Capitals are struggling considerably on that front, I don’t think a whole lot can be pinned on him.

For me, this is more of a roster composition issue.  They have plenty of high-priced talent but a lot of them are in the downswing of their careers.  Going into the season, their top three centers were someone coming off major hip surgery, a veteran who had made it known he wanted to be traded, and one who was non-tendered in 2022.  With due respect to those players who are all NHL talents, centers are play-drivers and going into this season with some big question marks in those spots is risky.  That’s the fault of the GM, not the coach.  Meanwhile, on the wing, it’s a pretty old group as well.  Eventually, some fall-off was reasonably expected.

On the back end, how much firepower do they have?  John Carlson isn’t a top-end point producer as he was before but he’s still above-average.  Rasmus Sandin has some upside offensively but is still developing.  That’s about it in terms of offensive ability; most of their other options are more defensive types.  It’s hard to get much going in transition when you don’t necessarily have the defense that can kickstart that or some consistent options down the middle to drive that attack.

With their aging roster, they need an influx of speed and creativity.  If they can get that, I think you’ll see a better offensive performance from the Capitals moving forward with Carbery still at the helm.

Sunshine swede: Any chance that Florida choose to trade Reinhart at the deadline if they get a good package in return and feel they can’t afford to extend him? Or Montour/Forsling?

From a long-term asset perspective, the idea of getting value for any of Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour, or Gustav Forsling over losing them for nothing but the vacated cap space makes sense on paper.  However, it would be shocking to see any of them moved over the next few days.

First, at this point, I don’t think the Panthers are at the point where they know they can’t bring back any of the players under any circumstances.  Can they keep all three?  That seems iffy but which one can’t they keep?  That’s far from being determined.  If they put pen to paper on long-term extensions with two of the three, then the idea of moving the other becomes a little more plausible as you’d be reasonably certain that you wouldn’t be able to keep the third one.

But even having said that, Florida’s a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.  Can they justify taking a key player away from their group and weakening their chances in the name of asset management?  That’s a tough sell to make.  If they were a bubble team, even in the spot their state counterpart in Tampa Bay is, such a move is defensible.  But when you’re battling for the top spot in the league and have eyes on playing into June, GM Bill Zito will be solely focused on adding to his core group, not hedging his bets about free agency in July.

RipperMagoo: To keep the game moving, what do you think of icing and offside resulting in loss of possession by the offending team? The defending team then gets the puck behind their net and the offending team has to clear the offensive zone.

This feels like a creative solution to a problem that I’m not sure many would necessarily agree exists.  I don’t see too many complaints about pace of play or game lengths going wildly beyond the planned television block.  I also think there are a lot of coaches who wouldn’t be fond of this rule as on icings, they’d lose the advantages of line matching against a tired group and choosing what side to take the draw on.  We already see a good chunk of something like this on delayed offside calls and an increase in that isn’t necessarily the end of the world but if the defending team has to take the puck behind the net first, it might actually slow things down as they’ll want to regroup, maybe get a line change in, etc.

If you’re looking to shave a few minutes off the average game length, why not just bring back the old hurry-up faceoff rule?  Instituted in 2002, teams had eight seconds to make a change after a whistle and then five seconds to line up for the draw before the puck was dropped.  When actually followed, the amount of dead time between whistles went down while we even had the odd calamitous draw where one team wasn’t even at the dot when the puck was dropped.  Of course, it wasn’t enforced too strictly and quietly went away.  But even then, I could see broadcasters taking issue with that as it would reduce the opportunities for replays and between-whistle advertisements.

Maybe it’s just me but I find games are fairly fast-paced as it is with fairly frequent multi-minute stretches without a whistle.  A period from start to finish generally doesn’t take much more than 40 minutes to complete and often comes in quite lower than that.  Points for creativity but I can’t see this gaining a lot of traction.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

After focusing on the Central Division last weekend, we turn our focus to the Eastern Conference in this edition of the PHR Mailbag, looking at some trade ideas and what a few teams might do in the next few days.  If your question doesn’t appear here or in last weekend’s piece, we’ll have one more mailbag running soon so watch for it in there.

Zoe G: Unfortunately, Ryan Graves didn’t have the standout season everyone was hoping for in Pittsburgh. Any chance he will go back to the NJ Devils?

This is one of those never-say-never questions but let’s just say I’d be shocked if Graves went back to New Jersey, at least with how things look today.

Let’s look at their cap situation on the back end.  At the moment, they have over $23MM tied into their current back end, including Dougie Hamilton who is on LTIR but will be back next season.  That’s already in the top half of the league.  Adding Graves and his $4.5MM to the books puts them just shy of the top five in spending.  Is that the most efficient use of their resources when they know that Luke Hughes isn’t too far away from a pricey new contract?  At that point, they might be approaching the league lead for spending on the back end.

There’s also the fact that Graves has five years left on his contract.  From Pittsburgh’s perspective, that largely deflates his value given his struggles so are they willing to part with one of their key offseason acquisitions for a return that would almost certainly be well below his perceived value a year ago?  I don’t see the Penguins wanting to do that and really anyone (not just New Jersey) wanting to take a swing on Graves with the struggles he’s having.  He needs to show that this year was just an aberration and not a sign of things to come before a trade becomes a little more realistic.

azcm2511: Thoughts on a Linus Ullmark for Dawson Mercer deal? It would benefit both teams, and it is possible that Ullmark would waive his trade restriction for a short move down the road. This move would benefit both teams and NJ can certainly handle Ullmark’s contract.

This is the type of trade proposal where I don’t think either side would immediately say no and hang up the phone.  I mean that as a compliment at a time when a lot of fan proposals are ultimately skewed too heavily in favor of one team to the point where they can’t seriously be considered.  Having said that, I think this is a trade that both sides would eventually pass on.

From New Jersey’s perspective, Mercer is an important part of their long-term plans.  I know he’s having a bit of a down year but he’s a season removed from 27 goals and 56 points; that’s a true top-six forward.  He also has four years of club control left.  Is it the right move to make to give up four years of control on a top-six forward for Ullmark who only has one year remaining?  That one gives me pause.

If I’m putting my Devils GM hat on, I’d also question how much of Ullmark’s success is system-based.  When he was in Buffalo, he was hot and cold; basically, he was a similar goalie to the ones they have now, ones that are good when they’re on and struggle mightily when they’re not.  I’m not saying Ullmark will go back to that Buffalo form but he might not be the Boston version with the Devils either.  If I have any hesitation about Ullmark being a top-end goalie in New Jersey’s system, trading a controllable young piece for him may not be the best approach.

From Boston’s perspective, it’s a bit more of a coin flip but this is what it comes down to for me.  Part of the Bruins’ success is derived from having two above-average and rested goalies on any given night, giving them the goaltending advantage way more often than not.  Take Ullmark out of the equation and it’s all resting on Jeremy Swayman, a player with about a year and a half worth of NHL games under his belt.  Is he ready to be a full-time number one and an every-game goalie in the playoffs?  If they’re not 100% confident the answer is yes, then I think they’d eventually lean to a no answer.  I don’t think they’re quite at a 100% confidence level for this season.

Granted, this swap would give them a young building block up front on a roster that doesn’t have a lot of those.  It also would give them $4MM or so in cap space to use down the stretch so if they had a deal to get a backup they trust in place and something to use the rest of that money on, then they might be a yes on this idea.  But since New Jersey probably isn’t, I don’t think this is a trade we’ll see in the coming days before it gets to the point where Ullmark is approached about waiving.

SkidRowe: Is there any way the Bruins can acquire Scott Laughton and would it be a good idea?

I’m going to answer these out of order.  Would it be a good idea to add Laughton?  I think it would.  He’s not a true top-six player in terms of offensive production but his defensive game makes him a high-end third option for a lot of teams.  Boston’s center depth isn’t the best and could certainly stand to be augmented.  Plus, a $3MM price tag for two years after this one is below market value and should be one that they can afford longer-term on the books.

That said, I don’t see how they could bring him in.  With the center market being thinned out, GM Daniel Briere can put a high asking price for Laughton’s services.  With a positive-value contract, it goes even higher.  At this point, I think the offer starts with a first-round pick plus some other assets.  The Bruins are already down a first rounder from last year’s Tyler Bertuzzi trade and they don’t have a second-round selection until 2026.  They also have a prospect pool that’s quite shallow thanks to several consecutive years of going for it.  Accordingly, are they the team that is going to be able to put together a package strong enough to get him?  I’m skeptical they’ll be able to do so.

gowings2008: Do you think the Red Wings use the deadline to add assets while also staying in the race? I’ve seen rumors of Perron being dealt to Edmonton which would allow Berggren to step in. A lateral move if you ask me, lineup-wise, but could earn the Red Wings some decent assets. They also have a surplus on defense and in net to deal from that wouldn’t necessarily hurt their playoff chances this year. What could some of these moves look like if they were to happen?

To answer the first part of your question, I don’t see them being too much of a buyer and a seller.  Detroit is sitting pretty comfortably in a playoff spot right now and moving away anything of consequence from its roster would be risky.

If someone wants to take James Reimer, sure.  That would yield a late-round draft pick and clear up a logjam.  But even on defense, I can’t see them moving one without getting one in return.  If they can get someone who’s a better fit, great.  Otherwise, unless they perceive value strictly from clearing someone like Olli Maatta or Justin Holl’s deal, it makes more sense to keep them.  If someone wants Klim Kostin with the hopes that they can get the version from a year ago, fine, make the move which again, wouldn’t yield much.  Otherwise, stick with (or add to) what you’ve got.  Moving David Perron feels like an unnecessary step back unless there’s a big swing coming and I don’t think there’s a big swing coming.

The Red Wings are in a nice spot at the moment.  They basically have a full set of draft picks to work with, a fairly deep prospect pool as a result of the recent selections they’ve made, and more cap space than any playoff-bound team.  If GM Steve Yzerman wants to play it conservatively, just use the cap room to take on an expiring contract or two to shore up the depth without giving up anything too valuable.  There will be several of those deals out there.  That can still be spun as buying and showing confidence in the group that you have while also realizing that this probably isn’t their year to truly be a contender.  I don’t expect too much from Detroit over the next few days to be honest but I suspect what they do will skew mostly toward the buying side.

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There were plenty of Central Division questions for the mailbag so we’ll give that division the focus here.  The rest of the questions will be split into two more segments to run between now and next weekend.

Gmm8811: Thoughts on Doug Armstrong being a buyer or seller before the trade deadline? I don’t think he really has anything to offer that would be of interest to other teams. Scandella, Vrana, and Kapanen could probably be had for a minimal return. I’m also not opposed to Perunovich or Saad being moved. Any type of minor league assets or reserve list players would be acceptable. I don’t think the Blues will make the playoffs this year, so maybe a few tweaks to increase the depth might be useful for next year.

St. Louis is right in the think of the Wild Card race and unless they lose every game between now and the deadline, they’ll probably be right in the race on deadline day.  Having said that, this is not a team that anyone is going to call a contender so going big on adding doesn’t make sense.  And while they might want to sell, they don’t have much when it comes to rental players to move.

Marco Scandella might get a late-round pick with max retention.  Kasperi Kapanen might as well since he can kill penalties which gives him some fourth-line utility in the playoffs.  I’m not sure there’s a market for Jakub Vrana though.  One rental you didn’t mention was Sammy Blais.  I know he’s having a rough year but he’s a fourth liner who can hold his own at five-on-five and provide a lot of physicality.  Teams will be looking to add that and at $1MM, he’s on a contract most teams can afford.  Of the pending UFAs, he might have the most value.  I don’t think the return for Scott Perunovich would be high enough to justify moving him so I think he stays put.

Brandon Saad might be a tough sell with two more years left at $4.5MM.  He’s not on a bad contract but that’s a tough one for teams to fit in and St. Louis isn’t going to want to retain on him.  Unless it’s a player-for-player move, I suspect he stays put.  Pavel Buchnevich will be the big fish if Armstrong decides to sell and aim for missing the playoffs next year.  At $5.8MM, he’s pricey but he’s the type of impact top-six addition that is in short supply and high demand.

Money will be tight for St. Louis once Justin Faulk comes off LTIR so they’re in a spot where if they want to add, they also need to subtract.  It wouldn’t shock me if they moved Scandella with retention for a pick and then flipped that pick or one close to it elsewhere to maintain their depth so that if they do make the playoffs, they’ll have some options.

WilfPaiement: Marc-Andre Fleury was clobbered again on Tuesday night against Winnipeg and yet we keep hearing that a few likely playoff teams are showing interest. My question is who? And why? Fleury is toast and he won’t make any team better in the playoffs!!!!

I don’t think teams are necessarily showing interest in Fleury as someone they’d want to use a whole lot in the postseason.  But here’s a player who has several long playoff games under his belt (with three Stanley Cups), has plenty of postseason playing experience, and is known for being good in the room.  If I’m looking to add a piece that can either be an upgrade on my current backup or someone who can handle some extra games down the stretch and be an off-ice contributor as well, Fleury makes some sense.

Is that a particularly exciting profile of a player?  Not really.  Would Minnesota get a lot for him?  Probably not.  But if a team has a bit of money left or a need to try to do something between the pipes but doesn’t want to pay a high price, there’s a fit with Fleury.  Colorado makes some sense if they’re just looking for a stopgap backup upgrade but some work would need to be done to make the money work.

However, would Fleury want to go somewhere to be the designated bench door opener for the postseason?  There’s a lot of speculation that if that’s the role that a contender is envisioning for him, he might just opt to remain with his family in Minnesota and play out the season; it’s not as if they’re out of the playoff hunt by any stretch.  Teams know they’re not getting the Fleury of a decade ago but there’s a small set of circumstances where he might be the right fit if he’s willing to accept that role.  At this point, it doesn’t seem as if that will be the case.

wsendall: Any chance Arizona would listen to offers on Clayton Keller? He has a full no-trade that kicks in next year and Arizona still seems like they’re several years away and has tons of organizational uncertainty. He’s already asked some questions about the team’s direction and the possibility of having a frustrated star player in a year or two with a full no-trade wouldn’t be ideal. It would take a king’s ransom, but his value may never be higher prior to his no-trade kicking in.

I don’t think the Coyotes are at a point where they can unilaterally not listen to offers for anyone but I doubt GM Bill Armstrong has any inclination about dealing Keller away.  At 25, he’s the right age to be a ‘veteran’ in this rebuild and at $7.15MM through 2027-28, he’s at a pretty good price point for someone who’s near a point per game.  You’re absolutely correct that it would need to be a king’s ransom for it to even be considered but those types of deals are usually easier to make in the summer than at this point of the season.

Keller may justifiably have some questions about the state of this long-term rebuild.  However, I think the worst of it is over and it might very well be this offseason where the switch flips and Armstrong gets aggressive using his draft capital to try to add some core pieces, similar to the Sean Durzi acquisition last summer.  If that happens and they’re in the thick of the Wild Card race next season – not an unrealistic goal to set given where they are – then I expect some of that frustration might dissipate as he sees the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.  I expect Keller sticks around for the long haul and certainly through the next two weeks.

DevilShark: What do you think Saros would cost? Both trade value and his next contract. Which teams can feasibly afford both?

Goalies are so hard to figure out on the trade value front.  I’d like to think Nashville could get a first-round pick and a quality young player for Saros since he has another year left at a team-friendly $5MM.  They probably would have to take back a salary or two as well which could theoretically then be flipped if need be.  That’s a lot for a netminder especially relative to some of the past deals for goalies but Saros is a top-end one so the return should be high.

Extension-wise, I’d have to think he’d look at Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension as a target.  Granted, he doesn’t have quite the accolades that Hellebuyck does but he’s also a little younger so there is a bit less risk when you look at it that way.  I don’t think he gets quite to an $8.5MM AAV but it could check in close to that unless next season resembles this one numbers-wise.  In that scenario, the next deal would start with a seven.

As for who could afford both, that’s a tough one.  I think New Jersey could although they’d need to move out Vitek Vanecek to make the money work for next year.  Buffalo can afford both but if they’re confident that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi can be a winning tandem down the road, they don’t necessarily have the need to make a move like this.  If Detroit isn’t sold on Sebastian Cossa’s upside, they’d be an under-the-radar team that could afford to make that type of trade and they have the cap space that they could carry Ville Husso as a very expensive backup for a year.

I’d like to put Ottawa on this list as they’ve been trying everything they can to put together a quality goalie tandem short of actually acquiring a proven netminder.  In my mind, Saros could be a real difference-maker for them and they certainly have the prospect capital (or even some younger roster players) to make a move.  But they can’t make the money work this season unless they move out Joonas Korpisalo and with his contract and performance, that’s not likely happening.  Basically, there’s a reason the Devils have been the speculative fit for Saros as they might be the only realistic team that could add him now and have the ability to extend him later.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo’s disappointing first half of the season, Patrick Kane’s future with Detroit, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column.

YzerPlan19: What happened to the Buffalo Sabres?! Did the lofty expectations for this season crush them?

I was certainly among those who had Buffalo at least being in the playoff mix this season.  I had them being in a close battle for a Wild Card spot and they currently sit 10 points out which isn’t exactly a close battle.  They’ve certainly underachieved.

I’m not sure it’s the lofty expectations (being a possible playoff team isn’t exactly a huge bar to clear) that have hurt them.  Instead, I think it’s the byproduct of an overly young roster with veterans who haven’t been able to step up to cover for the youngsters’ inconsistency.

When you look at the young talent they have, the tendency is to look at the year they just had and expect that they’ll be able to improve on it.  Thus, several core players each take a step or two forward and there are a bunch of internal gains that move them up in the standings.  It’s great in theory but in hindsight, expecting all of those players to take a leap forward was probably asking too much.

Not to single out the goaltending but hopes were quite high for Devon Levi based on how he finished last season.  But we’re talking about a stretch of barely two weeks.  Expecting him to stay at that level just might have been too much, too soon for him.  Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been inconsistent which is to be expected for a young goalie while Eric Comrie couldn’t pick up the slack which is why he cleared waivers earlier this season.  Improved goaltending was a big reason for the higher expectations but the hopes were too high, too fast.

Similar statements could be made for several forwards as well, particularly Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, and even Alex Tuch to a lesser extent.  The hope was they’d maintain or beat their production from last season but they’ve all taken a step back.  Kyle Okposo and Victor Olofsson aren’t picking up the slack either, unfortunately.  If a couple of the youngsters are producing like they were last year, they probably have a few more wins and are at least in a realistic battle for a Wild Card spot in the stretch run.

I still think there’s a pretty good core here for Buffalo to work with.  The goaltending should get better as Levi and Luukkonen get more seasoned.  Bounce-back performances from some forwards can definitely happen as well.  I think they’ll be in good shape in the long run but it appears their playoff drought is going to last a little longer.

Millville Meteor: Adam Henrique is having a good season. I expect the Ducks to trade him. What kind of return can we expect for him?

Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek must be thrilled at the way things have played out.  Calgary moved Elias Lindholm earlier than expected, pushing Henrique up a rung on the talent list.  Lindholm’s removal from the market then boosted Sean Monahan’s market, resulting in Montreal pulling the trigger on a trade early.  Now Henrique is the top rental option available.  That can only help his market.

Having said that, I’m skeptical that the Ducks will be able to get a first-round pick like the Flames and Canadiens did in their moves.  Henrique’s numbers are quite comparable to the other two but Lindholm has the stronger reputation while Monahan’s contract is much more affordable.  With Henrique making $5.825MM, that’s a price tag that few teams can afford, let alone few contending teams.  They’re going to need retention and quite likely a second team to retain another chunk which could dilute the return Anaheim gets.  I’ll say he fetches the Ducks a second-round pick and maybe a lesser asset (a late-round pick, a fringe prospect, or salary ballast) while the acquiring team will flip a fourth-rounder to whoever retains the second chunk.

rule78.1: Regarding Patrick Kane, the Red Wings, and the trade deadline. Keep him or trade him? If a trade is made, what expected return would the Red Wings receive?

First things first, he needs to show he’s healthy.  He didn’t make it back before the All-Star break as they hoped he might be able to so he needs to clear any lingering doubts about his health.  And with what he’s coming back from with his hip surgery, any injury is going to give teams some hesitance.

As of today, Detroit sits tied for the top Wild Card spot with Toronto.  All things considered, that’s a bit better than I expected.  It’s particularly impressive considering the spotty goaltending they had early in the year, resulting in third-stringer Alex Lyon taking over the number one job and running with it.  Unless their place in the standings craters over the next month, I’d be inclined to hold onto Kane.  Yes, there’s a risk of missing the playoffs and potentially losing him for nothing but it’s not like they gave up anything to get him.  And with the Red Wings not being in any sort of meaningful playoff race since 2016, there’s some inherent value in just keeping their group together and giving their younger players a taste of a tight stretch run.

But if they were to move him, the return isn’t going to be quite as high as it was a year ago when he yielded a second and a fourth-round pick to Chicago (plus a third to Arizona for retaining another 25%).  He’s having a good year but we’re talking about a 19-game sample size, lingering issues about his hip in his first post-surgery campaign, and a lower-body issue that has cost him three weeks already.  Accordingly, I could see a second-rounder on its own being the ceiling for what Kane would bring back in return if Detroit decided to trade him.

Black Ace57: Who do you think on the Flyers is likely to get traded now? Atkinson? Walker? I’ve heard with Seeler that they want to see if they can agree on an extension. Do you think there’s a chance Frost still gets traded after the rumors earlier?

Sean Walker certainly seems like a good bet to be dealt.  He’s having a nice bounce-back year after his playing time getting limited with Los Angeles and at $2.65MM, his contract is affordable, particularly if Philadelphia pays it down.  The fact he’s a right-shot defender certainly helps as he might be the most coveted option once Chris Tanev is moved.  For someone who was acquired at least in part as salary ballast, the Flyers are well-positioned to get some value for him.  If a team wants extra depth, maybe there’s a late-round pick somewhere for Marc Staal as well.  And if Nick Seeler signs an extension – it seems like they’re trying to hammer one out – then he’s off the list of options to trade.

I doubt there’s a strong market for Cam Atkinson.  He has been decent this season coming back from neck surgery that cost him an entire season but it’s that injury and the fact he has a $5.875MM AAV through next season that will scare teams off now.  In the summer, if Philadelphia is willing to pay down the contract and take a light return, then there should be a small market at least.  One forward to keep an eye on is Scott Laughton.  With the center market being so light, if GM Daniel Briere decides to make him available, he could command a quality return with two years left after this one at a below-market $3MM price tag.

Morgan Frost feels like he could be an offseason trade more than an in-season one at this point.  A trade involving him might be a player-player swap of players that are of a similar age or team control.  It might be more appealing to rebuilding teams but they generally aren’t looking to do those moves until the summer.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Assuming Ruff is fired after the season, who will be the next coach of the Devils???

First, I’m not certain that Lindy Ruff is going anywhere.  Extending a coach to a multi-year deal and then firing him soon after doesn’t happen a lot (periodically, but not often).  How much of New Jersey’s struggles are coaching-related compared to their injuries (Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, Nico Hischier, and Timo Meier have all missed double-digit games)?  And is it the fault of the head coach when the goaltending falls off the proverbial cliff?  I’m not absolving Ruff of any responsibility here but certainly all the blame can’t be laid at his feet either.

But I’ll play along with the premise.  If Ruff is gone, I don’t think GM Tom Fitzgerald will be looking for a first-time head coach; this is a team built to win now.  If we look at who’s out there with some NHL head coaching experience, Craig Berube comes to mind as someone who might try to get this Devils team to play a bit more structured.  I also could see them turning to Jay Woodcroft who had lots of early success with Edmonton and could bring a newer approach after having a long-term veteran in Ruff.  Those are who I’d lean towards predicting if Ruff is let go but again, I’m not sure that scenario is going to happen just yet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include players who have overachieved and underachieved relative to expected production, an updated look at the Calder Trophy race, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s column.

rpoabr: How do you solve the Kings?

This is a hard one.  I’m a proponent of roster shakeups over coaching changes but doing anything of consequence with this group is going to be difficult.  Of their current healthy top six forwards in terms of cap hit, they probably aren’t moving any of them (or can’t, in Pierre-Luc Dubois’ case with his struggles; they wouldn’t get full value if they moved him now).  Viktor Arvidsson’s value is down since he hasn’t played this season so he’s not being traded.  They only have two other ones making more than $1MM and both of them are under $2MM.  That makes it hard to salary match and they’re in a spot where they need to do so.

On the back end, maybe there’s a shakeup move with Vladislav Gavrikov whose shorter-term deal could make a player-for-player swap more palatable.  With the right team, perhaps that frees up a bit of money to take a run at another upgrade.  But Drew Doughty and Michael Anderson are on long-term pacts and moving the underappreciated Matt Roy probably isn’t going to help.  From there, the options make $1MM or less so again, money matching is difficult.  Meanwhile, I’m not going to pick on the goaltending, it’s doing well enough under the circumstances.

So, if a Gavrikov trade isn’t palatable, there are three options.  Tweak the depth players (try some different fourth liners, for example, to see if one provides a spark as they did with Alex Turcotte yesterday), do nothing, or make a coaching change.  Option one doesn’t move the needle much so that isn’t going to solve anything.  Anyone who reads these knows how much I don’t enjoy speculating about a coaching change but if you’re of the mindset that this roster needs a shakeup, that’s the one card they can play right now.  Until Arvidsson gets back, it might be the only card they can play.

Personally, I don’t think the Kings were as good as they were early nor do I think they’re as bad as they are now.  They’re somewhere in the middle as a mid-tier playoff team.  That’s basically where I pegged them heading into the season so I’m not really inclined to say they should make a change but if GM Rob Blake decides that something needs to change, that might be the move to make.

PyramidHeadcrab: Who would you say is the most snake-bit player of the season thus far? That is to say, whose underlying stats suggest they should be putting up more points, but are struggling to do so? Inversely, who is the biggest over-performer?

Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk has been at or near the top of this leaderboard all season long but he’s a point-per-game player so it’s hard to call him truly snake-bit.  I’m instead going to go with John Tavares in Toronto.  Even with his goal yesterday (which snapped a long pointless streak), he’s marked at -13.8 goals above shooting talent, per MoneyPuck.  If we pick the simpler stat, his expected goals mark is 27 and he has 13.  Shooting percentage-wise, he’s at 7.5% this year versus nearly 13% for his career.  If he’s at his expected goals mark, he’s over a point per game and Toronto is probably battling Florida for second in the division over being in a dogfight for a Wild Card spot.  The recent struggles have led some to think Tavares is in a steep decline but I’m not sure that’s truly the case.

On the flip side, if we look at the player with the most goals above shooting talent, it’s Sam Reinhart (+8.8).  But even if you took those from his goal total, he’s still a point-per-game player so it’s not fair to call him the biggest overachiever.  Instead, I’ll go with the one who’s fourth on that list, Chicago’s Jason Dickinson.  He’s +8.3 in that category.  He has 15 goals on the season.  You don’t need to be a math major to see that he’s basically scoring twice as much as the numbers suggest he should.  If we look at shooting percentage, he’s at 19%, well beyond anything he has put up before.  Considering that he came into the season without a single doubt-digit goal total to his name, I think it’s fair to suggest that he has been an over-performer.

Emoney123: Is Samuel Ersson in the ROY conversation?

Schwa: Would also be interested in a larger look at Calder for this year. With Bedard’s injury – is he still the favorite? Or how do you assess the race at this point?

When this question was first posted, I didn’t think he’d have any sort of chance of being in the discussion.  However, with Carter Hart being among those to take an indefinite leave of absence in recent days, it’s Ersson’s net to run with for the second half.  If he goes on a hot streak and the Flyers hang onto a top-three spot in the Metropolitan and complete the improbable playoff run, that might get him onto a few writers’ ballots toward the back.  But in terms of being a contender for Rookie of the Year?  I think that will be a stretch unless he single-handedly wins them a bunch of games and drags them into the playoffs.

Right now, I’d still peg Connor Bedard as the favorite for the Calder Trophy.  He’s expected to miss about another four weeks so he still has a chance of getting 60-plus games in.  I think that will be enough to stay on the top of most ballots since he should come away with the most points despite playing with a pretty weak group of wingers.

Bedard also benefits from the big market effect, something that isn’t the case for Minnesota’s Brock Faber.  There’s an increasingly viable argument to make that the blueliner should be the Calder winner; first-year blueliners aren’t supposed to take over as a team’s top rearguard and play 25 minutes a night but that’s what he’s doing.  I think it has largely gone under the radar which will hurt him at voting time.

In a previous mailbag, I had Adam Fantilli as the potential third-place finisher.  That still wouldn’t shock me but I’d give Luke Hughes the edge now.  Dougie Hamilton’s long-term injury has given Hughes a chance to play a bigger (more offensive role) and the production and confidence are both on an upward trajectory.  That said, there’s still a big gap between him and Faber.

HockeyBoz: Did the Red Wings get it right with Lalonde instead of Lambert? Detroit had them one and two, I believe, on their hiring list.

Shocked to see Lambert axed so soon. Islanders have always been a defense-first-type team.

I’m going to respond to the second part first.  I was also surprised to see Lane Lambert go that quickly.  I know they haven’t been playing particularly well lately but in Lambert’s defense, the Isles don’t exactly have a high-end lineup and they’ve been banged up on the back end.  GM Lou Lamoriello might think that’s the case based on the long-term contracts he handed out over the summer but in my book, this is a bubble team playing like a bubble team and they’re on the bubble in the playoff picture.  We’ll see if Patrick Roy (another surprising hire) can change their fortunes around but I still expect to see them either just in or just out of a Wild Card spot.

From Detroit’s perspective, if Derek Lalonde and Lambert were the top two choices, then yes, I think GM Steve Yzerman got it right.  They’re another bubble team but some of their youngsters have progressed nicely under Lalonde’s tutelage which bodes well for the long term.  With some steady goaltending, they could be a playoff team and that’s an outcome I wasn’t expecting heading into the season.  Lalonde should get some credit if that happens.  Would Lambert have gotten more from this group?  It’s hard to say but given that he couldn’t elevate the Isles beyond a bubble team, I can’t sit here and say he’d have done better with Detroit.  In that case, I’ll say Lalonde was the right choice.

Gmm8811: Seems like the Hockey Canada sex scandal has been swept under the rug. Has there been any current news?

wreckage: Repercussions of players involved in the TC scandal? I believe in second chances and believe these young men should be given a second chance on their careers, but does the NHL try and set a precedent and ban their eligibility? I think if they’re found guilty, in a court of law, they most definitely should pay the consequences and if rehabilitated should be given the opportunity to re-establish their careers in the league. Will any be given a chance to resume their careers in your opinion, or are they all likely KHL-bound at best?

Since this question came out, there certainly has been some news on this front.  The London Police Service announced they anticipate that they will hold a press conference on February 5th and will share further details at that time.  Previous reporting has indicated that five players have been told to surrender to the police in London by an unspecified time.  In terms of what is 100% certain, that’s about all that can be said.  More will be known and can safely be discussed after the anticipated announcement.

As for the possible repercussions, it’s still a bit early to speculate.  Will it actually get to court?  Will there be a settlement beforehand where they plead to a lesser charge to avoid going to court?  Will some players do one option and some do the other?  That will go a long way toward determining if the player will have another NHL opportunity or when it may come, not to mention the potential suspension coming from the league that would take the decision out of the teams’ hands in the short term.  I want to see what the end result is before making any sort of prediction on whether there will be another NHL opportunity (and when it might come) or if the league attempts to set a new precedent from a disciplinary standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Let’s start off the new year with a mailbag.  Topics in this edition include an assessment of Calgary’s top trade chips, what Chicago could be looking to do over the coming months, and much more.

Cla23: Is it just me or are there more players on or heading to IR than previously; if yes, why?

Devil Shark: Can you do a team comparison of injuries? Most specifically games lost to top six forwards or top two D? Interested to see if anyone had been as unlucky as NJD…

Using NHL Injury Viz’s Injury Frequency chart, it looks like fewer players are injured now than a year ago by about 10-15 per league game.  Meanwhile, when comparing this season to the average over the past two decades, it has been pretty close, either slightly above or slightly below.  So from a games-missed standpoint, it doesn’t feel like there are more injured players than usual.

But there’s a bit of a difference between what you’re asking and what that link measures.  I don’t think there are that many more players landing on IR but some teams are known to get creative with their placements.  That can be done for roster or cap management purposes.  If a player lands on IR, they only have to miss seven days and it’s from the date of the injury, not the day of the placement.  So even if they’ve missed a couple of games, they can backdate a placement to get a replacement up for sometimes even just a single contest.  That’s an option that quite a few teams utilize.

Meanwhile, some teams are starting to use LTIR a bit more frequently.  That can be used if a player will miss 10 games and 24 days; we’ve seen a few placements this year where the player is back after just missing the minimum number of days.  But for teams near the Upper Limit of the salary cap, the LTIR placement gives them some much-needed relief so that is starting to be used a bit more often now with so many teams tight to the cap.

As for a team comparison, NHL Injury Viz has some tools for that as well so let’s use that although it doesn’t break down top-six forwards and top-pairing defensemen.  From a cap hit perspective, San Jose has had the biggest impact; Logan Couture skews that one quite a bit.  Vegas is right up there thanks to Robin Lehner; Max Pacioretty skews Washington’s number somewhat as well as does Gabriel Landeskog in Colorado.  Next are Columbus whose list of injuries is long and quite significant, followed by Anaheim and Montreal, teams who are in varying degrees of a rebuild.  Then it’s New Jersey so at a minimum, they’d be right up there for bad luck from an injury standpoint.

wreckage: Realistic returns for the Flames’ big three chips? I listen to Flames radio and follow a couple of their other sites and it seems all their fans are expecting close to, if not a 1st plus for each and all of them. They seem to value Lindholm as a 1C based on his one above-average season two years ago with Gaudreau and Tkachuk on his wings. Every other year is closer to 65 points. Tanev is a great defender who often gets injured and if they hang on, he could be hurt again. And Hanifin is good, but expiring… Are any really worth a 1st+ or is that wishful thinking?

I don’t think Calgary would get a first-rounder for all three but two of them seem quite likely

Elias Lindholm doesn’t have to be a true number one center to fetch a first-round pick at the trade deadline.  Look at Ryan O’Reilly a year ago, he was under half a point per game with St. Louis and still landed a first-round pick.  Lindholm is producing at a better rate than that, is well above average at the faceoff dot, and plays in all situations.  If Calgary is willing to retain 50%, they can get that contract to under $2.5MM pro-rated which should be affordable for several contenders without moving much of consequence the other way in terms of matching money.  He’s probably going to be the best middleman available if the Flames ultimately turn around and sell.  If I’m being honest, I don’t see how he doesn’t bring at least a first-round pick back; it’s how much more comes with it.

As for Chris Tanev, this is the one I agree with you on.  With his injury history, I can see teams being hesitant to move a first-rounder, even though he’s an expiring deal that can be paid down to $2.25MM while being a right-shot player, by far the most coveted side.  There are even recent comparables (David Savard in 2021, Ben Chiarot in 2022) that suggest a shutdown defender on a paid-down expiring contract could fetch a first-rounder plus something else.  But the injury risk drops it to a second-rounder and something else.

Then there’s Noah Hanifin.  Here’s a top-pairing player that can fit in with any contender and is also under $2.5MM with 50% retention.  He’d probably be the best blueliner that moves, assuming he moves.  If you’re the best defenseman available, you’re probably getting moved for a first-rounder.  And if you’re like me and think he’ll move in a sign-and-trade, there’s no doubt at least one of those picks will be part of the sizable package going to Calgary.  Whoever gets him is likely then out on Tanev, which will hurt Tanev’s market a bit in the end.

YzerPlan19: Does the Flames’ recent success change the course of things? Do they still try to pony up $ to keep this group? Is it the FAs that are contributing factors to the success or the kids? Is the success sustainable or should they continue on in rebuild mode anyway? Do we have to wait until the trade deadline to see where they are in the standings before any moves/signings materialize?

I don’t think we’re at a point where a few weeks should be determining their course of direction.  Generally speaking, that’s probably not a wise course of action either way.

I thought Calgary was going to be pretty good this year.  Lots went wrong last season but they still have a decent roster on paper.  But they can’t score enough to truly contend; adding a piece up front would certainly help but I don’t think they’d be more than a mid-tier team anyway.  If I’m GM Craig Conroy, am I ponying up a bunch of money to lock in a core that probably isn’t good enough to contend?  If one of Lindholm or Hanifin wants to take a team-friendly deal, sure, I’d make that move.  But I don’t think that’s happening.

Adding Connor Zary has certainly helped so he deserves some credit but for the most part, I’d pin their recent improvement on the backs of the veterans (not necessarily just the pending free agents either).  Zary has given them a bit more offensive depth but they’re still among the lower-scoring teams.

Can they hang around where they are?  Probably.  They’re more or less a bubble team and if they play around .500 hockey, they can stay in that area.  But again, holding steady probably isn’t the best approach for them to be taking.

Unclemike1526: What additions do you see the Hawks making by the trade deadline? With Hall on LTIR and Tyler Johnson and Mrazek likely out the door that leaves the Hawks with a lot of Cap space money. They need more draft picks like I need hemorrhoids, But I would rather see them add some NHL-ready talent to add to the pool. Nazar should be here one day after Michigan is out of the Frozen Four but most of the Hawks’ top talent is still a couple of years away. Commesso might get some run after Mrazek is gone or if he gets hurt but I think some decent ready talent might be available. Thoughts? And no, Campbell is a hearty No Thanks.

The Blackhawks have plenty of cap space before the possibility of moving out some of their rentals.  But why would a team that’s bottoming out in an effort to land another high draft pick acquire players that will make them more competitive in the short term, hindering their efforts to finish at the bottom of the standings?  That seems a bit counter-productive in my books.

You may not want to see them add more draft picks but over the next couple of months, that’s what they should be doing.  If there’s a market for Tyler Johnson and Petr Mrazek, it’d likely be a draft pick return.  If they take on a contract or act as a third-party facilitator to help another team make a deal, it’d be a draft pick coming their way.

If you want them to flip the switch and go for it, that’s an offseason decision.  At that time, they have what should be another high draft pick to go with Connor Bedard and then they can use their collection of draft picks and prospects to look for some more win-now pieces, or at least prospects that are a bit closer to being NHL-ready.  I think there’s a good chance that will be their strategy but it’s one that has to be executed after the season, not now.

As for signing Frank Nazar after his college season ends, that makes sense.  That gets him a taste of the NHL before a potential spot with the US squad at the Worlds; if he signs and burns the first year of his deal this season, he’d be ineligible to go to Rockford.  As for getting Drew Commesso some NHL looks, I’d like to see him fare a bit better with the IceHogs first.  Throwing him to the wolves on what’s likely to be an even weaker team after the trade deadline comes with some risks and I think their preference would be to let Arvid Soderblom get the bulk of the work down the stretch to help further assess if he’s in their future plans.

Johnny Z: Would the Hawks make a bid for Laine? Seems like CBJ would settle for a bit less to get his salary off the books and the Hawks have ample cap space.

Patrik Laine has been a popular speculative trade candidate although I’m not sure I agree that Columbus would be willing to move him at a discount to get his salary off the books.  Yes, things have not gone well this season from both an injury and production standpoint but he’s also a year removed from nearly averaging a point per game after averaging a point per game the year before.  Does one bad season mean they should want to sell low on a player who has been one of their top performers before that?  I don’t think that’s the right course of action for them to take.

If I’m GM Jarmo Kekalainen and I want to clear salary, I’d be focusing on moving some of the lower-cost overpayments, players like Andrew Peeke and Adam Boqvist, for example.  They may not get a great return straight up but if clearing money is the main goal, selling low on one of them makes more sense than selling low on one of their top liners.

Having said that, someone like Laine would make some sense for Chicago, after the season of course.  An overpriced contract where they could get in a trade for below market value like they did with Taylor Hall would be a nice bridge addition to allow some of their younger prospects ample time to get established in the pros.  I don’t think Laine specifically will be one of those players but you’re on the right track with what type of trade candidate might be viable for the Blackhawks.

PyramidHeadcrab: Looking at advanced stats and yadda yadda, which current “winning” team is most likely to fall off in the New Year? It’s sure been an experience watching Anaheim drop from near the top of the Pacific to the bottom of the league already!

Full disclosure, I don’t know my advanced stats as well as I should but here goes nothing using stats from MoneyPuck heading into Sunday’s action.  For me, the answer is Vancouver.

Let’s talk about PDO, the sum of a team’s shooting and save percentages at five-on-five.  The league average is 100.  Good teams can be in the 101-102 range without it being too concerning.  The Canucks, meanwhile, check in at 104.73.  For context, there are only three other teams above 102 and none of them are at 103.  Vancouver is far and away ahead of the pack.  Buoyed by a shooting percentage of 12% (well above the league average), this tells me they’re due for some regression.

Now let’s look at Expected Goals For and Against based on shot quality and location.  Vancouver has scored 18.56 goals above their expected rate, the second-best rate in the league.  It’s good for them that the shots are going in but this is another one that seems unsustainable.  From a Goals Against standpoint, they’ve allowed 15.26 fewer than expected.  I think there’s a bit of credence to this one being a bit sustainable as their tandem of Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith gives them quality goaltending each night.  They should be on the happy side of this ledger although down 15 goals allowed in this category might be tough to sustain.

If we add those two numbers up, Vancouver has a Goal Differential Above Expected at 33.82 (in just 36 games played).  For context, the only other NHL team above 16 in this category is Winnipeg (28.77), the next highest team in PDO.  (If you’re looking for who’d be next on my list based on advanced stats, it’d be them.)  The Canucks are a good team but I don’t think they’re quite this good and I expected some sort of slide back in the second half.  They should still be a playoff squad but I doubt they’ll still be atop the Pacific Division at the end of the regular season.

WilfPaiement: When did NHL officials stop calling games by the rulebook and start calling games based on the score/situation? And why does the league think it’s okay that officials can now manipulate the outcome easily, especially with the new revenue stream that is gambling?

Officiating in the heat of the moment can be frustrating at times, especially if you’re a fan of the team who isn’t getting the benefit of the call.  We’ve all been there.

I’m going to be a bit picky here with the first part.  If officials called everything to the letter of the rulebook, the majority of the games would be played at three-on-three for the overwhelming majority of the time with more players in the penalty box than on the bench.  No one wants to see that.  There are tons of smaller infractions (a hook here, a late bump on the boards a half-second after the puck went by there) that go uncalled but are technically penalties based on the rulebook and that’s a situational judgment call right there, the score notwithstanding.  There is always going to be some level of game management from officials; there’s just no way around it.

Now, as to officiating based on the score?  I don’t have any empirical data to show one way or the other that says it’s happening more or less than before.  Personally, I haven’t seen it as much this season as I feel like I’ve seen in the past.  Sure, there’s the odd questionable call (or non-call) in a late-game situation but again, when you’re already operating on some level of game management for determining what infractions are worth calling (and which of the many smaller ones won’t), that’s going to happen.

I’ve yet to see any evidence that the league thinks score manipulation is okay but there’s not a lot they can do.  It’s not as if they can arbitrarily fire every official who they think has done it and I’m pretty sure officials are cautioned about not doing this at multiple times per season.  I also don’t think there’s a ton of this happening so maybe I’m not the best one to answer this question.  From a gambling standpoint, it’s not like gamblers of other professional sports don’t have the same issue; there’s subjectivity and human error everywhere.  The best thing I can say is that if bettors feel this is subjectively happening, factor that belief into what bets are and aren’t made.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.