PHR Mailbag: Ovechkin, Lindholm, Campbell, Flyers, Blues, Calder, Final Four

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Alex Ovechkin’s chase to 895 goals, the potential viability of Edmonton moving Jack Campbell, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from over the weekend.  We’ll also run one this weekend from the most recent callout for questions.

rule78.1: Based on what you have seen this year, does Ovechkin ever pass Gretzky?

As we sit here today, Ovechkin is at 828 goals, 66 behind Wayne Gretzky; he obviously needs 67 to pass him.  This year has been ugly for Ovechkin and Washington’s offense although they’re holding onto a Wild Card spot, albeit ever so slightly.

I can’t see Ovechkin’s scoring struggles carrying on for the entire season.  He’s at six in 31 games, a 16-goal pace.  I think he at least hits 20 by the time the year ends.  Let’s pick a completely random number and say he winds up at 23 and that the Caps find their scoring touch to an extent.  Now the gap is 49 to tie, 50 to beat him.

Ovechkin has two years left on his contract.  Could he average 25 goals per year in that stretch?  I wouldn’t put it past him even if it looks like he’s slowing down.

But let’s say he comes up a bit short following the 2025-26 campaign.  If he’s within, say, 10 goals of Gretzky at that point, I have to think Ovechkin is going to want to give it one more go to try to get the record.  I’m sure Washington would be more than happy to bring him back for that attempt, even though he’d be 41; the marketing alone could make it worthwhile if he gets there.  If not them, there would be other teams who certainly would be willing to give him that shot.

I know Ovechkin has struggled this season but I still think he’ll get the goal record eventually.

SkidRowe: Could the Bruins acquire Elias Lindholm in exchange for Hampus Lindholm and a Lindholm to be named later?

It’s too bad that Par Lindholm is no longer on Boston’s reserve list, we could have thrown him in there for good measure.

Calgary’s Lindholm is a fantastic fit for the Bruins.  There’s no doubt about that.  He’d help fill the role that Patrice Bergeron filled for many years which would fill arguably the biggest hole in their lineup right now.

The problem is that this probably isn’t the type of move the Flames should be looking to make.  This is a treading water type of trade and would probably need to be made in conjunction with them moving Noah Hanifin for a young center.  If they can pull this combo off and ownership provides a directive to not rebuild, maybe a package highlighted by the two Lindholms could work.  That’s a couple of big ifs, however.

The idea of Boston adding Lindholm down the middle has been raised a lot going back to the summer but the same problem exists now as it did then.  They don’t have many high picks in the near future to deal from and their prospect pool isn’t the deepest.  The emergence of Matthew Poitras perhaps makes him more appealing than he might have been a few months ago but if GM Craig Conroy winds up starting a rebuild, I still think he’d be aiming for a higher-ceiling piece.

aka.nda: How can the Oilers trade Campbell? With the cap going up, is a buyout not feasible?

Let’s look at the buyout cost first as that’s going to play a role in any trade possibility as well.  The total cost in actual dollars would be $9MM with a $10.5MM cumulative cap charge that would be spread out as follows:

2024-25: $1.1MM
2025-26: $2.3MM
2026-27: $2.6MM
2027-28: $1.5MM
2028-29: $1.5MM
2029-30: $1.5MM

(The variation in the first three seasons of the cap charge is due to the frontloaded structure of the contract.)

Jack Campbell is having a horrific season, no doubt about that.  His trade value is most definitely on the negative side and it’s going to take a significant incentive to offload in its entirety.  If you’re the acquiring team, you’re probably not taking on Campbell with the idea of trying to rehab his value and get him going again.  That means you’re probably taking on a $9MM cash payout and dead cap money into the next decade.  A first-round pick or a good prospect probably isn’t enough to justify taking that on.

Is it possible that Edmonton can move Campbell?  Sure, but it doesn’t seem likely.  Their best bet might be taking back a similarly high-priced underachieving contract but given their salary cap challenges, that’s a move that’s a lot easier said than done.

Now, is a buyout feasible for Edmonton?  Fundamentally, the idea of a six-year dead cap charge is something I’d usually say no to but I think an exception could be made here.

If the Oilers are confident in Stuart Skinner being the starter, could Edmonton get a suitable backup for less than Campbell’s $5MM cap charge minus the buyout cost?  Next season, they absolutely could with a bit of money left over which would be crucial given how tight their books are.  For 2025-26 and 2026-27, it’s still possible although there probably wouldn’t be any savings left over.  But if you can get someone who can play better than Campbell has, it’s still a net gain.

Three additional years at $1.5MM on the books will sting down the road but Edmonton is certainly a win-now team.  A Campbell buyout could help them on that front so the short-term gain is arguably worth the longer-term pain.

Emoney123: Tortorella for Coach of the Year! Has this team turned the corner enough to use some draft capital to add in an attempt for some playoff wins or hold the course in the rebuild since they have two first-round picks [their own and Florida’s] and two second-round picks [Columbus and LA Kings] and Michkov, Gauthier, and Bonk in the system?

Right now, John Tortorella has to be right up there for the Jack Adams Award as Coach of the Year.  The Flyers have been a lot more competitive than probably just about anyone expected.  But with around 50 games left in the season for most teams (give or take a few), there’s still a long way to go.  I’m not convinced they’re going to still be in a playoff spot two months from now let alone at the end of the year which probably will be what decides if Tortorella gets the award or not.

This is not a core group that’s a player or two away from doing damage in the playoffs so moving away some of their top draft capital for win-now options doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.  I still think the likelier scenario is that they wind up selling by March 8th, not buying.  And if they do hang in the mix and want to add, I’d want to see them moving later-round picks for specific role players in the hopes of giving their young core pieces some meaningful games without giving up much of consequence.

The only way I’d advocate for trading one of those draft picks is if they were getting someone in the 19-22-year-old range with high value.  That fits their current younger core and if the player is a few years post-draft, it could help speed up the rebuild.  But they’re very much still in the rebuild so moving those picks for veteran win-now pieces is not a move GM Daniel Briere should be considering.

Blues fan: With the recent uptick of play by the Blues, what do you see as their biggest need to shore up their team?

St. Louis is another team where it is way too early to think about being buyers leading up to the trade deadline.  On paper, I didn’t think this was a playoff team heading into the year and just because they’re getting a boost from a coaching change, I’m not sure their fortunes have changed all that much.  At best, this is a bubble team battling for a Wild Card spot.  Accordingly, I’d be aiming to shore up their future capital over their current roster.

But since you asked about shoring up the current group, I’d say that if they were going to do something to add, I’d be aiming for a top-four defenseman who can play the key shutdown role.  Between Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, and even Scott Perunovich, they have lots of firepower.  Colton Parayko is fine but Nick Leddy isn’t a shutdown piece, Marco Scandella needs his minutes to be limited, and Tyler Tucker is still developing.

I don’t think St. Louis is a forward away from being a top offensive threat but how much better could their defense be with a legitimate anchor?  Does that add a few points to Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer’s save percentage?  At this point, if that happened, they’d jump into the top half of the league in that regard.  If I had to pick a direction for them to go as a buyer, it’d be that and then hope that Jordan Kyrou can maintain his improved play over the last couple of weeks to help push their offense toward the middle of the pack.  I suppose that might be enough to sneak into the final Wild Card spot if all went well.  But again, I don’t think that’s the route they should go.

Bradley B: 1. Who do you think the Calder runners-up will be?
2. It’s still early, but name your final four for this season.
3. Holiday dinner: What are you eating?

1) Assuming Connor Bedard stays healthy and runs away with the Rookie of the Year nod, I think Brock Faber has played his way into one of the finalist spots.  Frankly, I think he should garner consideration for the top spot but I don’t see that happening.  He is playing huge minutes in all situations and isn’t just surviving, he’s thriving.  Right now, I think I’d give Adam Fantilli the edge for the other finalist position as I can’t see voters picking two Minnesota players (Marco Rossi is second to Bedard in rookie scoring).  Fantilli is playing a big role in Columbus and has established himself as a reliable producer already.

2) One of these years, the Rangers are going to put it together in the playoffs and this might be the year they do that so they’re my Metropolitan pick.  Right now, Florida looks like they might be the most complete team in the Atlantic and they showed last year the way they play works in the postseason.  It’s hard not to take Vegas in the Pacific so I’ll stick with them.  As for the Central, with the rosters as they are now, I’d have Dallas coming out of there.  That said, count me among those who think Colorado will make a big splash on the trade front which could change things.

3) Turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, and tourtiere.  Yes to cranberries while veggies were, well, minimal.  A pretty simple and traditional meal and I could still taste the deliciousness as I typed out this mailbag.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.