PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion about a Cam Fowler trade scenario, plenty of goalie talk, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

wreckage: Do you expect Michkov or Bedard to be more impactful going forward? Bedard may have more skill, slightly. Michkov likely has a deeper team behind him at the moment. For the next three years… who has more impact in the NHL?

I’ll go with Connor Bedard for this one.  Yes, Chicago has a weaker team on paper right now but Philadelphia is still rebuilding as well, despite them nearly making the playoffs last season.  Both teams are probably on the outside looking in for at least the first two of those three years.  The good news is that Matvei Michkov should get a lot of runway to play big minutes quickly like Bedard did last season but there’s only so much impact he can have on a non-playoff team.

Generally speaking, I’m going to lean toward a high-end center having more of an impact than a high-end winger on a year-to-year basis.  Bedard will be a year further ahead in his development, entering what should be a very pricey second contract at a time when Chicago should be starting to take some steps forward in the Central.  He’s going to be a big part of that.  Not to say Michkov shouldn’t be an impactful piece by any stretch but I expect most players won’t be quite as impactful as Bedard should be in a few years.

riverrat55: Who is the 1st player with the upcoming increase in the Salary Cap to ask for $20MM?

Before tackling this, we need to figure out our target cap percentage that will cost $20MM.  Teams, players and agents use this percentage as a direct comparable in negotiations.  (For anyone wondering, 20% is the maximum, a rate we haven’t seen reached in quite some time.  I remember some when the first cap came out but that’s about it.)  Auston Matthews’ contract is 15.06% of the cap while Leon Draisaitl’s recent one checks in at 15.91%.  Connor McDavid’s current one is 15.72% and I could see it eclipsing the 16% mark (which, on a $92MM-plus cap, puts the AAV in the $15MM range).  For the sake of this hypothetical, let’s put a target cap percentage at 16.5%.

Let’s do some quick math here.  $20MM divided by 16.5% = $121.212MM.  Why does this matter?  We need to project when the Upper Limit of the salary cap might get to this amount to see who will need a contract at this time.

This year, the cap is $88MM with a 5% capped increase next season and the year after that.  That would make the ceiling $92.4MM in 2025-26 and $97.02MM in 2026-27 before the CBA expires.  (The league did make this year’s cap a bit higher than the 5% increase so this isn’t a perfect scenario but close.)  It wouldn’t shock me to see a bit more of a jump after that, assuming revenues stay on their current trajectory.  Let’s say it’s a 10% boost post-CBA.  That makes the cap $106.72MM in 2027-28.  Let’s forecast 7% increases on average after that.  In 2028-29, it would be $114.19MM and in 2029-30, it’d be $122.19MM.  So, the 2029-30 season is the earliest we could see that price point.

Assuming that most core players will continue to sign max-term deals, that probably takes McDavid off the table.  Cale Makar is up in 2027 so he’s off the table.  Matthews’ deal expires in 2028 so he’s not going to get there either.  The rest of the established elite will either be signed through that time or on the backswing of their careers in 2030.

With that in mind, my guess would be Bedard if I’m picking a current player.  He’d have a shot at that in 2034 if he signs a max-term contract coming off his entry-level deal.  If he goes shorter-term, he could get there sooner.  We’re going to see a bigger jump in the cap coming sooner than later but even with that, it’s probably going to take a while to see someone reach $20MM unless there’s a material jump in the Upper Limit in the new CBA or some sort of other drastic change.

jminn: The Ducks want to trade Fowler. Kings could have a need, even though Cam is a lefty. Is there any chance Fowler moves up the freeway?

I’m going to be a little picky on the phrasing as it’s not necessarily that they’re looking to trade Fowler but rather that they’re willing to work with him on finding a new home.  If he winds up staying there for most or all of the season, I think that’s an outcome they’re okay with.

But semantics aside, I don’t think this is a good fit for Los Angeles and not because of the handedness.  Drew Doughty is expected to be back this season so while the Kings have around $10MM in cap room right now per PuckPedia, that money isn’t really spendable as they’ll need to get back to compliance before they can activate him.  That’s easy to do with a replacement from the minors but Fowler has a $6.5MM cap hit.  That means that barring further long-term injuries, the Kings would need to clear around $6.5MM off the books when the time comes to activate Doughty.  That’s going to be extremely difficult to do midseason.

Would Fowler help the Kings?  He certainly would.  But this isn’t the right move for them to make at this time.  Los Angeles needs to exhaust their internal options and see if Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence can take on bigger workloads.  Then, if that doesn’t go well, they can re-assess but even then, it’d have to be for a much cheaper option than Fowler.

Frozenaquatic: There’s an interesting conversation happening right now about goalie salaries. Obviously, the argument for lower salaries is that aside from Hellebuyck, even top goalies play about 60 – 65 games (even though starting pitchers command high salaries despite only playing 30 out of 162 games). And how much does a goalie matter for a championship (or was Darcy Kuemper the Trent Dilfer of the NHL–just an anomaly in a rare system that usually favors Tom Bradys/Vasilevskys)?

Another argument is that they are only as good as the system–how much will Ullmark regress behind a much worse Sens system and would Swayman regress that same amount? They’re also mercurial–Shesterkin could sign an eight-year, $104MM contract and begin an eight-year slump.

The argument for higher salaries is that they may affect those games more than the other players. Great goalies sometimes open a championship window. They can represent a winning culture that other players want to play for.

Where do you fall on the goalie salary spectrum?

Second question is: Do you know if players take playing with goalies into consideration when they sign UFA contracts with new teams?

Third question: if you were in a legacy fantasy league, would you take Askarov, Cossa, or Wallstedt?

1) In general, I’d say goalies have felt the squeeze in recent years.  With a lot of teams shifting closer to a platoon, there has certainly been a concerted effort to try to spend less at that position.  It also should be noted that the number of true higher-end starters has gone down which is part of the reason teams are looking for goalies to be closer to splitting the duties.

What has been interesting to me lately is that teams with a legitimate number one have largely managed to get that player locked up on what looks like a team-friendly agreement.  Part of me wonders if the fact a lot of teams are looking to cut costs between the pipes actually has deflated the marketability for some of those players.  While supply is low, it’s getting offset by perceived lower demand.

That’s what made the Jeremy Swayman saga particularly interesting as here’s a player trying to reach that upper tier (some would say he’s there already while others might want to see him play more first) that seemingly held out for top dollar.  It seems like Igor Shesterkin is hoping to do the same as well although, again, if he got to the open market, how many teams would realistically go after him?  How many would have the cap space and of those, how many would pay up that much for a goalie?  I’m intrigued to see how that one’s going to play out.

2) I can’t say this for certain either way but it would surprise me if more than a handful of skaters would put too much weight on who the goalie is when signing in free agency.  I’d say that’s too position-specific.  Free agents probably assess rosters on a more macro level – does the player want to go to a contender?  Does he want to go to a team that is thinner at a specific position in the hopes of securing a bigger role (and ideally a bigger contract)?  A UFA goalie would pay attention to who the incumbent player is for obvious reasons but I doubt a lot of skaters put a high emphasis on who the goalies are specifically when they’re pondering teams.

3) Long-term, it’s hard to pick against Yaroslav Askarov.  There’s a reason why he was considered by some as the best goalie outside North America a couple of years ago.  He’s now on a team that could be positioning itself to contend in a few years.  If it’s a long-term play you’d be going for, he’s it.  If you need someone who might get you more points in the short term, it’s Jesper Wallstedt.  Like Askarov, he’ll see some NHL action this season but he’s on a team that I expect will be more competitive.  Next season, he should be a full-timer on a team that has some cap space to make some noise next summer.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Jeremy Swayman contract drama, handicapping the Metropolitan Division, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back next weekend for part two.

wreckage: Everyone knows and even Edmonton fans admit, they need to upgrade on Nurse as their 3D but it’s impossible at his contract, especially with his NMC. And now some certain ESPN guy is saying Seth Jones to EDM makes sense, despite the fact the time Caleb was there was tumultuous with their mother’s claims on the old Twitterverse. Does any of that rumor make sense? Even in the slightest?

First, let me say that I’m blissfully unaware of those claims from the Twitterverse which allows me to actually ponder the idea on its merits.  Before getting into that, I’ll note that only six players remain from Caleb’s tenure with Edmonton with a different head coach, GM, president, and much more.  The culture is different, the team is mostly different; if there were concerns before, those same concerns might not be around anymore.

On the surface, the idea of a swap with Darnell Nurse and Jones makes a lot of sense in theory if there’s a desire to make a change there.  Nurse’s contract ($9.25MM through 2029-30) makes it incredibly difficult to swap him for an upgrade as a lot of teams will view the price tag as a negative.  With Jones making similar money ($9.5MM through 2029-30), the cap charge isn’t the issue.  It’s one overpaid blueliner for another.  If both teams think that they’re better off with the other overpaid player, a swap would make sense.  I don’t think it’ll happen though.  I’d say Chicago says no given the left-defense organizational depth they have, making Nurse a bit redundant compared to the right side where they’re much thinner.  But value-wise, it’s not a bad framework for a swap.

gowings2008: Is it crazy to think the Leafs are primed for a step back this year? There are so many question marks. Can Matthews, Nylander, and Marner repeat career years? Will Tavares continue to decline and how fast? Will Chris Tanev’s body hold up? Are they getting Florida OEL or Vancouver OEL? Are Knies and McMann legit? Do they even have an NHL fourth line? Is Woll really the answer with just 34 career starts? I really think if just a couple of these things don’t bounce in the Leafs’ direction, they’ll be on the outside looking in come playoff time. The Atlantic is no walk in the park, especially this year.

It’s not crazy to think that Toronto could take a significant step back this season.  We know of them being a top regular season team under former coach Sheldon Keefe but will things be different under Craig Berube?  They’re now built with an eye on being more effective in the playoffs.  Will the uncertainty around Mitch Marner’s final year of his contract turn into a distraction?  I don’t think so but it could.  I’m not as worried about the defense and some of the other forwards that you mentioned but there is one giant wild card.

The goaltending isn’t just a question about Joseph Woll but also Anthony Stolarz.  Neither player has even been a 1B option in the NHL.  They each made career highs in starts last season, making 23 and 24 combined.  There are 82 games in the regular season.  How will they hold up under the bigger workload?  And with oft-injured Matt Murray and Dennis Hildeby as the in-house options to turn to if injuries or general fatigue arise, they’re taking a risk.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t mind the approach they’re taking.  There’s upside to both Woll and Stolarz and if they even provide average goaltending, they’ll be fine.  But if they falter, they could very well be in trouble.

But that said, I don’t see much reason to think they won’t be a top-three team in the Atlantic this season.  While they have questions, no doubt, so do a lot of other teams not named Florida.  In that case, I’d back the team with the track record of winning a lot of regular season games to continue doing so.

Johnny Z: So did Neely make the $64M contract offer to Jeremy Swayman and his agent sat on it and did not tell his client? Does Swayman take this offer and fires his agent? Will Neely take the offer off the table? Will Swayman end up on the trade block? What a mess!

First, let me say that this has turned into a bit of a bizarre situation.  With the various reporting that’s out there, I get the sense that the $64MM might not have been offered but $62MM or $63MM might have been.  So while Swayman’s agent is technically correct from a semantics perspective, the last offer compared to Cam Neely’s stated number is pretty close and probably wasn’t going to be the difference-maker in getting something done or not.

Enough time has passed since this was revealed so if the offer was going to be taken, it would have been taken by now.  It sure seems like there’s still a pretty sizable gap to bridge which, evidently, is going to take some time.  I don’t think we’re at the point of a more ‘nuclear option’ being an agent change, an offer revocation, or a trade demand.  By all accounts, Swayman’s desire is to be in Boston and the Bruins clearly want him as their long-term starter which is why shorter-term agreements haven’t been discussed in much detail yet.

There are various pressure points that help to spur things, be it a trade (the deadline) or a contract (arbitration hearing, training camp, etc).  The next one is the start of the regular season early next week where things get more complicated cap-wise as his cap charge for 2024-25 would be higher than his overall AAV (as long as it’s a multi-year deal).  Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli explains that more in detail if you’re interested.  Assuming something isn’t done by then, then there might be a waiting game to see if the leverage shifts.  If Boston starts strong without him, that might lower Swayman’s price while if they falter, the Bruins might decide they have to go a bit higher to close a contract.  Things took a turn for the worse this week with the public comments but I expect a deal will still get done…eventually.

rule78.1: How long do you think it will take for the NHL/NHLPA to address LTIR? Because someone within the Vegas organization has found all the holes and is taking full advantage of them.

For those who haven’t seen it, the latest LTIR situation saw Vegas remove the cap hit of Robin Lehner.  Technically, Vegas was within their rights to attempt to terminate his contract because he didn’t (or couldn’t) report for his physical.  I think in the end, the Golden Knights were prepared to do so, the NHLPA fully intended to grieve and this time, instead of just doing it and waiting to see the outcome of the hearing (like the Flyers are doing with Ryan Johansen, for example), they just worked out the compromise here.

One of the few things we know about this is that there’s a lot we don’t know.  As ESPN’s Emily Kaplan relayed earlier this week, there was a specific reason why Lehner was unable to attend, one of a sensitive nature.  Due to that, the NHL and NHLPA agreed that this is an “unprecedented and highly unique” case.  So is this circumvention?  I can definitely see the argument that it is but given how rarely in-season grievances involve restoring a cap charge, I think they might have just done the settlement early instead of reaching it in November or December or whenever the hearing would have happened.

As to your question, it’s a CBA matter since it’s related to salary cap accounting.  It’s not something that can unilaterally be changed beforehand.  The NHL has been doing its due diligence in terms of speaking to owners, presidents, and GMs to get a sense of the appetite for change.  How many want to make a change and how big of one do they want?  I think more want to change something than don’t but the extent of the change is up in the air.

The next CBA starts in 2026-27 and while both the NHL and NHLPA would probably like to have an agreement done before then, it’s unlikely any significant cap changes (including LTIR) would come into play until the new document is in effect.  So for the next two years, the status quo is probably going to continue to be in place.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what type of point production could be expected from Connor Bedard this season, which teams could be interested in Calgary’s veterans, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

frozenaquatic: This is a question about expectations, both low and high: Who has a bigger bounce-back season, Matthew Beniers or Trevor Zegras? How do Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli stack up in their sophomore campaigns? And what do we really expect out of Pierre-Luc Dubois for the Caps in terms of production (what’s your prediction for goals and points)?

DigbyGuy: I would add Dylan Cozens to the bounce-back season question.

1) Between Beniers, Zegras, and Cozens, I’d go with Cozens.  The Ducks had a dreadful showing offensively last year and didn’t add anyone of consequence to help their roster.  Yes, there will be some improvement from their young core – including Zegras – but a bounce-back year for him might be staying healthy and getting to 55 points.  I think Beniers can beat his rookie-season numbers although I’m not expecting a huge jump past that.  I’d put him in the 60-65-point range.  Cozens has already gotten there before and I expect the Sabres to be more consistent offensively so I’d slot him a few points ahead of Beniers.

2) I’m concerned about the offensive situation in Columbus.  More specifically, the lack thereof.  The Blue Jackets have a very weak attack as things stand and even if Fantilli plays a big role, a big point total is unlikely.  I could see him around 50-55 points.  Anaheim’s situation, as I noted above, isn’t particularly good either but I’d put theirs ahead.  Add to that Carlsson likely playing on the front line (Fantilli probably starts behind Sean Monahan, their big offseason signing) and I think Carlsson lands around 60-65 points.

3) I think Dubois will primarily line up on the second line which is going to put his playing time pretty close (maybe slightly better) than it was with the Kings last season.  He’s also now on a team that doesn’t have quite as much offensive depth.  That should give Dubois enough runway to be more productive than he was a year ago but I wouldn’t put him at the level he was at with Winnipeg.  I think he’ll wind up somewhere around 22 goals and 53 points.

drew ford: There’s social media banter about Connor McDavid playing out his Oiler contract and signing back home in Toronto. Do you think this is a possibility?

Two years out from McDavid’s free agency, anything is technically a possibility at this point.  If things go entirely off the rails this season, he could very well decide that he wants to see what it’s like to play somewhere else and yes, his hometown team could theoretically be one of those options.  But the odds of that happening have to be quite low.

For starters, Edmonton is widely expected to be a contender this season and just inked Leon Draisaitl to a record-setting contract, declining to match two offer sheets to ensure enough money was available to do so.  This is a team that is squarely focused on winning now.  When you’re in an environment like that and having the type of success he has had, why leave?  If they were embarking on a rebuild, that’s one thing but there’s no indication they’ll be in that situation for the foreseeable future.

The other challenge the Maple Leafs would have is affording him.  Yes, Mitch Marner and John Tavares are on expiring contracts and if they were only replaced (or retained) on one-year deals, they could keep enough flexibility to be able to afford McDavid should he actually hit the open market in 2026.  I don’t see that happening so I’m skeptical they’d be able to afford the $16MM or more it’s probably going to take to sign him.  But again, it’s highly unlikely he makes it that far anyway.  Never say never to a hypothetical free agent situation two years out but let’s just say this is something I don’t expect to happen.

Nha Trang: Time for my annual question: who’s the guy who comes out of nowhere to be a major impact player this season?

Evidently, I’m getting worse at this each season.  The first time this question came up, I had Tage Thompson in his breakout year.  Then I went with Taylor Raddysh for 2022-23 and while he managed 20 goals, that wasn’t the same level of a breakout.  Morgan Geekie was my pick last season and although he had a career year with 39 points in 76 games, that’s not a true breakout.  (I did get a reasonable return on one of my two longshot picks though with Michael Carcone getting a 21-goal campaign after just having six career NHL tallies heading into the year.)

For 2022-23, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  I’ll continue to stick with that despite it making this question a bit more challenging.

My initial thought to this question is Montreal’s Kirby Dach.  He’s coming off yet another injury-riddled campaign but he showed some positive signs when healthy in his first season with the Canadiens.  He also now has an intriguing winger in Patrik Laine.  If the two of them can stay healthy (and that’s a big if on both fronts), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Dach could push for 60 points which would be a new personal best by a pretty big margin.  That’s not quite a Thompson-like leap but it would certainly flip the script on him being an underwhelming top-three pick to an impact player.

Jaysen: I’m not an expert by any means but I can sense that the Flames are about to enter a full-scale rebuild, even though they might not say it. Kadri has been rumored to be available. But that Huberdeau contract is nearly impossible to move. I’d keep Weegar, for now.

What are your top three destinations for both Kadri and Huberdeau, and what would be the best trade return for both players that could benefit the Flames? And for Huberdeau, let’s propose a return where the Flames retain and one where they don’t.

DigbyGuy: I would add Rasmus Andersson to this as well.

I’m going to cover Jonathan Huberdeau first as the answer here is pretty quick.  With him making $10.5MM through 2030-31 and coming off two seasons with a point total in the 50s, there isn’t one viable trade option for him let alone three.  That contract might be the worst in the league.  Could there be a fit with maximum retention?  Possibly but the return wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to justify the $36.75MM in actual money they’d have to pay Huberdeau not to play for them; ownership probably isn’t signing off on that type of move either.  Maybe there would be an option three or four years from now when the term isn’t as bad but right now, that’s not a movable contract.

Nazem Kadri, on the other hand, has a viable trade market should GM Craig Conroy choose to pursue it.  At $7MM for four years, it’s a bit pricey for a second liner but there’s always high demand for a center.  Winnipeg comes to mind as a good fit as they’ve been looking for a consistent second center behind Mark Scheifele for a while.  Minnesota would be another fit although they’d need to wait until next season to do it (or Calgary would really have to pay down the cost) to make it work within their current cap situation.  But they’re another team that hasn’t had a consistent number two option for a while.

For a third team, I’d put Chicago which might seem strange at first glance given the prospect depth they have down the middle.  But those prospects might be a couple more years away and at that point, Kadri becomes a high-end third option, one they can afford since they’ll have so many players and prospects on likely below-market contracts.  But as they look to get through their rebuild, they will need some capable veterans.

As for a hypothetical trade scenario, there are way too many elements to consider here.  Can they retain?  If so, how much?  Can they take money back?  If so, how much?  How full-scale of a rebuild are they going for?  That determines the preferred type of assets to acquire (draft picks, junior-aged prospects, or pieces close to contributing now.)  Each answer to each question would modify the trade proposal and that’s too many variables to get through in a piece like this for three separate teams.  The short answer is that if it’s a full-scale rebuild (and I’m not convinced it is), get the best combination of assets possible regardless of whether they’re near-ready pieces or ones that are five or six years away.  You can always find short-term stopgaps (bridge players as I call them sometimes) to fill out a roster or hold a spot to allow a prospect to develop properly so Conroy shouldn’t restrict himself to looking for specific types of assets.

Onto Andersson now.  If Calgary decides to move him, I imagine Conroy would get a call from about 15 general managers in about 15 minutes.  The contract is more than manageable ($4.55MM for a top-pairing player for only two years) and he’s a right-shot player to boot, the side that’s always in high demand.  The best way to answer this is as follows.  If you’re wondering about teams who might be interested, look at the standings on March 1st.  Pretty much any team within five points of a playoff spot at that time would be calling unless they’re a team already well-stocked on the back end.  Dallas and Nashville come to mind in particular; no, I wasn’t cherry-picking Central Division teams as landing spots on purpose, it just worked out that way.

bottlesup: With Bedard getting a year of experience under his belt and much more veteran support around him, is it possible to think he can hit a point per game this year?

Yeah, I’d say that’s a more than reasonable goal to try to achieve.  He wasn’t that far off the mark last season with 61 points in 68 games.  With the return of Taylor Hall (who missed all of last season) and the additions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, he’s going to have wingers who are much better fits to play on the top line and should be better at finishing some of Bedard’s passes.  If he stays healthy, 90 points is where I’d peg Bedard’s point total at for the upcoming season.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion on deferred contracts, Anaheim’s interest in moving out a pair of long-time veterans, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

User 1773920983: With Johnny Gaudreau passing away, what will happen to CBJ’s salary cap? They will fall below if it is removed.

vh33: I don’t want to be disrespectful, but I was wondering: due to the death of Johnny Gaudreau, what happens with the cap hit for the Blue Jackets and the salary? Will the cap hit be reduced? Or in the books for the remainder of his contract? And will the heirs receive his remaining salary? What are the rules for these tragic occasions?

Gaudreau’s contract comes off the books in full for Columbus which does indeed put them under the Lower Limit of $65MM for the upcoming season.  Per PuckPedia, they’re around $62.3MM with a 22-player roster at the moment so they do have a bit of work to do on that front.

It’s possible that they ask for some sort of waiver from the league to start the season below that amount given the circumstances but I think the NHLPA would need to sign off as well.  Their preference would obviously be that Columbus goes and signs a couple of free agents to make up the difference which is an option.  I expect the Blue Jackets will go the trade route and take on a player or two from teams needing or wanting to clear salary, picking up some draft picks in consideration for doing so.  Given that they’re a team that’s likely to sell at the trade deadline, I could see $67MM being a soft target, giving them a path to stay above the Lower Limit even if they move a player or two during the year.

As for what is and isn’t paid out, let’s start with the contract itself.  To the best of my understanding, the family won’t receive any of the remaining payments.  Assuming the $2MM signing bonus in his contract was already paid, that’s the last direct payment in the deal.

However, the family will receive some money.  Article 23 of the CBA provides some information on the insurance of contracts which is relevant here.  From my interpretation, there should be a $1MM life insurance policy as well as an accidental death policy valued at the base salary for that season which in this case is $7.75MM (it excludes the signing bonus).  There’s also a six-month extension of benefits for the family (added in the 2020 CBA extension) with an option to elect (purchase) continuation of coverage beyond that.

aka.nda: Deferred payments in contracts… how many can be in place, and for how much and what duration? How do they count against the cap if they’re paid out the day the season ends vs. some other time?

There are no restrictions on deferred payments in terms of how many can be in place, for how much, or for how long.

As for the second question, the end of the season still falls within the League Year so the quickest way to answer it is to go right to the CBA – Sec. 50.2(ii)(A):

Player Salary denominated as “Deferred” but payable within the term of the SPC shall be counted in the League Year in which the Player Salary is paid and shall not be treated as Deferred Salary.

That covers the day after the season ends but let’s look at another time.  More specifically, a deferral that is payable outside the term of the contract and payable outside the League Year (let’s say July 1st).  At that point, the value of the deferral is discounted to the present value of that compensation in the year it was earned.  Logically, the further out the payment of the deferred money, the lower the present value and therefore the lower the cap hit.  That’s my attempt at a simple explanation for a concept that isn’t all that simple.  PuckPedia has a nice breakdown with some more details of contract deferrals if you’re interested in reading up on it further.

I’m going to quickly comment on the idea of deferred salary in general having seen a lot of general speculation that the two deals Carolina did could lead to a spike in these types of agreements.  I don’t think that will be the case.  With escrow stabilizing, there’s going to be more effort into front-loading contracts as much as possible, especially for established top players.  They then get more money sooner which is the key objective.

Deferred contracts are more or less the opposite as players have to wait longer to get paid.  Presumably, they’re getting more in the end to make up for the deferral but they have to wait.  That’s how Carolina got around the perceived internal ceiling of Seth Jarvis’ deal being the $7.75MM that Andrei Svechnikov has.  The AAV based on total earnings is higher at $7.9MM but the cap hit is only $7.42MM based on the three deferred payments to the day after the contract officially expires.  It’s a creative solution but while we might see a few more of these deals (to be fair, Carolina’s two weren’t the first of its kind; they’ve happened before albeit rarely), this isn’t going to be the start of a new trend.

Cla23: What does a Cole Perfetti and Lucas Raymond contract look like?

For Perfetti, I think the two sides are going to hone in on a bridge deal.  He only has 75 career points under his belt so I have a hard time believing that the two sides can find a number that they’ll be happy with on a long-term agreement.  Perfetti wouldn’t lock in close to a max term for less than $6MM as he undoubtedly feels he has another level to get to offensively while given his performance so far, I doubt the Jets would go that high.  I expect a two-year term will be the target which should check in around $3MM per season, perhaps backloaded slightly to secure a higher qualifying offer.  That also fits nicely within Winnipeg’s current cap situation, giving them a chance to bank some in-season cap space.

As for Raymond, it looks like a long-term agreement is the goal and GM Steve Yzerman made sure to leave enough cap space to afford one.  His platform season was strong (31 goals, 41 assists) and there’s probably a belief that he can beat those numbers down the road.  I could see Raymond’s camp looking to best Cole Caufield’s contract (eight years, $7.85MM AAV) as he has better numbers now than the Montreal winger did at the time while Detroit is probably hoping to get that into the high-six range which lines up more with the cap percentage on Dylan Larkin’s post-entry-level deal.  I’ll go with seven years at $7.8MM or eight years at $8MM as the end result.

sha44ron! Due to the cap limits, the Rangers were unable to improve their bottom six so do you think that will hurt them this year?

I’ll start with this general thought.  If the bottom six is the biggest issue that a team has heading into the regular season, that’s a pretty good spot to be in.  And that’s where the Rangers are.

I’m not sure I agree that they haven’t been able to improve their bottom six.  As long as Filip Chytil stays healthy (granted, that’s far from a given), that’s a big improvement right there as he’s not passing Mika Zibanejad or Vincent Trocheck on the center depth chart.  If Reilly Smith’s addition pushes Kaapo Kakko onto the third line as well, now you have a third line that should be a capable secondary scoring trio.

I also think there’s room for internal improvement in the bottom six.  Will Cuylle should take a step forward while if they get a chance, Brennan Othmann and Adam Edstrom could contribute.

With New York’s overall talent, they’re in good shape for the season so they can be patient with their bottom six.  If the things I mentioned above happen and it’s a better group than expected, great.  If not, they can try to address it at the trade deadline.  If it’s still a problem going into the playoffs, then I’d be a bit more concerned but for now, I don’t think it will hurt them too much.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some possible new options for head coaches and GMs, Anaheim’s disappointing summer, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column.

Gmm8811: GM’s on the hot seat…Blake, Lamoriello, Yzerman. Coaches on the hot seat…Richardson, Lalonde, Huska.

Who’s the up-and-comers to replace them?

Let’s start with the general managers.  Mathieu Darche has been a finalist a few times now and has been in Tampa Bay’s front office for the last five years while increasing job duties along the way so he should be on that list.  One name that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention that could fit in this range is Paul Krepelka, his age (56) notwithstanding.  He has spent the last four years in Florida’s front office and was a long-time player agent before that.  We’ve seen a few former agents take on GM jobs so he could be a candidate to be the next one to do so.  Another one that isn’t necessarily a younger up-and-comer is Ryan Martin who has been an AGM in the NHL since 2010.  At some point, he might get a chance.  And as for Lou Lamoriello’s potential replacement when the time comes, that might stay in the family with Chris Lamoriello, a long-time executive with both the Islanders and Devils, seeming like a viable candidate with his father perhaps moving into an advisory role at the time.

On the coaching side, I’d first question the placements of Luke Richardson and Ryan Huska on the hot seat.  As long as Chicago fares a little better this season, I think Richardson is safe and with Calgary heading into a rebuild, a coaching change this quickly seems unlikely.

That aside, Jay Leach has been on the radar for a few years now and has interviewed a few times for the top job.  I don’t think it’s going to be too much longer before he gets that opportunity.  Marco Sturm was a finalist in San Jose and while teams will be hesitant when it comes to hiring an international head coach, the fact that Sturm has coached in North America for the last six years helps.  Seth Appert has been working his way up the coaching ladder in various leagues and will get his first NHL action as an assistant this season in Buffalo.  That might be the last box to check before he gets a chance to run an NHL bench in the next year or two.

Jaysen: Vegas bought low on Holtz and bet they could unlock some of his upside. Being a Habs fan, Montreal did have some degree of success with “reclamation” projects. I’m a big fan of Dylan Holloway and Peyton Krebs. Thoughts on how both players would fit into the Habs lineup, and the price to get them? Thanks.

So, as I was going through the questions last weekend, I thought to myself that pushing this question by a week was safe.  I wasn’t expecting Holloway’s situation to have any sort of activity until sometime in September.  Whoops…  With Holloway off the table one way or the other now (there’s a one-year trade moratorium coming from the date of Edmonton’s decision to match the offer sheet from St. Louis or not), let’s focus on Krebs instead.

While I get the idea of trying to add a younger piece as they’ve done the last two years, to be honest, I don’t necessarily see a great fit for Krebs in Montreal, at least in the role he has filled with Buffalo.  They have Christian Dvorak and Jake Evans in the fold on expiring deals this season that should fill the third- and fourth-line spots and while Dvorak probably isn’t being brought back after that, Evans could be extended at the right price.  Alex Newhook is still around and fared well down the middle down the stretch last season while Kirby Dach is back after missing all but four periods of last season; they’re likely going to deploy him down the middle on the second line behind Nick Suzuki.

Meanwhile, Owen Beck might be a prospect that forces his way onto the roster somewhat quickly while Oliver Kapanen is expected to get a look at training camp as well (but has to return to Sweden if he doesn’t make the team).  That’s quite a few bottom-six options and I don’t think anyone is realistically expecting Krebs to play higher than that in the lineup.  Where does he fit in on the depth chart then?  I suppose they could push Dvorak to the wing and keep Krebs at center but Montreal has a lot of pricey bottom-six pieces; adding to that group only complicates things further.

Here’s the other challenge.  Buffalo has no motivation to sell low on Krebs.  They have ample cap space and at 23, he’s young enough to fit in with their core group.  His next contract is going to be a low-cost bridge deal so they can afford to continue to be patient; sometimes, centers take a longer time to develop.  For perspective, I don’t think they’d move him for a second-round pick.  And if I’m Montreal, I’m not sure I’d move one of their first-round selections with the year he just had.  The Sabres’ price tag in a trade is going to be higher than what any other team could justify paying coming off a down season.  With that in mind, I don’t see a trade coming at this point.  Maybe midseason if injuries strike and if he struggles out of the gate again, then perhaps the asking price comes down to a more palatable point.

Schwa: Out of the top UFA names left – where do you see everyone landing? Are we expecting PTOs, waiting for training camp to start to shake out? Anyone heading to Europe?

I’m going to assume you mean ‘top’ as a relative term here as there frankly aren’t any true ‘top’ unrestricted free agents left.  At this point in the game, we’re looking at depth players, many of whom are going to be going the PTO route over the next four weeks.  But a handful might land a guaranteed deal so let’s make some predictions on those.

Kevin Shattenkirk – Edmonton – One way or another, the Oilers are losing a defenseman.  Whether it’s Philip Broberg to St. Louis from the offer sheet or moving out one (or both) of Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak to afford matching the offer sheet.  Either way, they’re going to need a low-cost depth replacement.  Shattenkirk plays the side they’re not as deep at, can still handle a regular third-pairing role, and plays an offensive style that complements the way Edmonton plays.

Kailer Yamamoto – Colorado – The Avs can’t afford much more than minimum-salaried players at this point but while I think Yamamoto could make a bit more going elsewhere, I could see him changing strategies and looking for a spot where he can better showcase himself in a winning environment over chasing top dollar.  It worked for Jonathan Drouin last year and Yamamoto could look to follow that path.

Tyson Barrie – Boston – The Bruins can’t do much until Jeremy Swayman signs but having Barrie be the type of role player that Shattenkirk was for them last season wouldn’t hurt.  There are question marks with Andrew Peeke after a tough season last year while Barrie could anchor the second power play wave behind Charlie McAvoy, lessening the load on Hampus Lindholm a little bit.

Players like Tony DeAngelo and Sammy Blais have been linked to the KHL although deals there haven’t materialized yet.  Probably a couple of others will ultimately determine their best fit for the upcoming season might be playing a big role somewhere overseas over the low-chance PTO route.  I could see some of the veterans (Max Pacioretty, Blake Wheeler, and Kyle Okposo, for example) retiring if they don’t get a guaranteed contract with a team they’re comfortable with going to.  As for most of the rest, they’ll probably have to work their way up from a tryout.

jminn: What the heck is going on in Anaheim? They seem to have failed at their desired offseason plans. Besides having a year under the belts of some decent prospects and a few new assistants, what other positive qualities are there to tout?

After landing a top-six winger (Alex Killorn) and a top-four blueliner (Radko Gudas) in free agency last year, it certainly sounded like the Ducks were going to try to do so again this time around.  And with due respect to Robby Fabbri and Brian Dumoulin (both added via trade), you’re right, they didn’t add those desired pieces.

The best thing they have going for them is their young core.  With Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, and Cutter Gauthier, they have three potentially high-end pieces 20 or younger that are expected to play key roles this season.  They have high hopes for blueliners like Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger, among others, as well.  (And that’s not even getting into a player like Troy Terry, a key veteran in the short and long term.)  Those are a lot of building blocks for the future.  It comes with growing pains and they’re heading for plenty more of them this season but that’s the big positive right now if you’re a Ducks fan.

I’ll also add the fact that they didn’t move Trevor Zegras as a positive.  While I question his long-term fit with the roster being what it projects to be in the near future, his trade value was far from being at its highest.  I expect him to rebound somewhat and boost that value in the process so if you’re looking for something to potentially look forward to for the upcoming season, there’s that as well.

I’ll be curious to see if Anaheim is able to leverage its considerable cap space (more than $21MM per PuckPedia).  While I’m sure there are budgetary elements in play here, I’m not convinced that the roster they have today is the same that they go into the season with; I could see them taking on another short-term veteran.  That won’t raise the ceiling for this group but it probably won’t hurt them either.

bigalval: What do you make of the Kings’ offseason? Can they make the playoffs in a tough conference? I think Rob Blake has done a terrible job as GM, your thoughts on the Kings?

I’m not a big fan of what Los Angeles has done this summer.  I don’t mind the Pierre-Luc Dubois for Darcy Kuemper swap from the standpoint of getting out of a bad contract while upgrading between the pipes.  (In a more defensive environment, I think Kuemper will bounce back pretty well.)  Of course, when assessing Blake as a whole, the other part of that trade (what they gave up to get him) has to be considered and, well, that makes it look a whole lot worse.

As for their other moves, Warren Foegele’s money is about right with how he played last season.  I’m skeptical he has another 40-point season in him but it’s a short-term agreement (three years) at least so that one’s okay.  Joel Edmundson’s four-year deal worth $3.85MM per season, on the other hand, was one of the worst contracts handed out in free agency.  When healthy, he’s a good blueliner.  But he has a long track record of back trouble; he only has one season where he came close to playing every game (and that was in 2020-21 when he played 55 of 56 contests).  That’s a contract that will hurt them in a hurry.  Meanwhile, the Quinton Byfield contract only gained them one more year of club control.  While it kept the cap hit more affordable, I wonder if a true bridge deal might have made more sense since they’re only getting the one extra year at that price.

Meanwhile, I think they can still make the playoffs.  They’re in a division with three teams that are going to be near the bottom of the league in the standings while Seattle is still a bit of a question mark.  If you’re going into a season as a safe bet to be top four in the division, you have a good chance at being a playoff team.  They’re not contenders by any stretch but they’re a Wild Card-caliber team once again.

That last sentence ties in well with my evaluation of Blake.  He has done well building a group that can get to the playoffs.  But getting to them and getting through them are two different things.  And I don’t think he has done well enough in the second part of that.  I don’t see the true upside to make them a contender and they’re way too good to bottom out and rebuild.  They’re pretty close to being a perpetual mid-ranked team.  If the objective is to get two or three home playoff gates, he has done well on that front lately.  But if the goal is to have a group that can go deep in the postseason, I don’t feel Blake has put together a group (or enough future flexibility) to make that happen.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Jeremy Swayman’s situation in Boston, if Torey Krug’s injury will make St. Louis look for another defenseman, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s column.

bottlesup: It looks like Dallas’s roster is set, do you see Jim making possibly another trade some point in the season or any other moves?

The answer to this question is going to depend on what happens with Thomas Harley, their lone remaining restricted free agent.  They have a little over $6.2MM in cap space at the moment, per PuckPedia, but that’s with a 20-player roster.  Assuming they want to carry an extra forward at least (Harley’s eventual contract would give them seven defenders), they’re closer to $5.4MM to play with.

How much of that will Harley take up?  If the two sides work out a long-term agreement that covers his remaining RFA years and buys some extra years of team control, it’s going to be at a number that’s actually higher than their current cap space.  In that scenario, instead of adding to their roster, they’d have to subtract from it to get back into compliance.  From there, they’d probably wind up tight to the cap, limiting their in-season flexibility.

But if it’s a bridge deal, things change.  Using K’Andre Miller and Evan Bouchard as some recent comparables, a two-year bridge for Harley should check in around the $4MM per season mark.  If they did that and carried a 13th forward, they’d be around $1.4MM or so (depending on the exact cost of Harley’s deal and the cost of the 13th forward), giving them some flexibility to hedge against injuries.  I could see them maybe using a bit of that to top up from a minimum-salaried extra forward to more of an impactful one around the $1MM mark which would then put them closer to $1MM in wiggle room.

At that point, the question of any in-season activity would be dependent on injuries and how aggressively they paper Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque to the minors on off days to bank extra cap space.  If there’s enough room left at the deadline, I could see them making a move to shore up their back end as they did with Chris Tanev back in March.

I’ll also mention the possibility of a three-year bridge, one that probably pushes the cost closer to $4.5MM.  At that point, they’d have to fill the 13th forward spot with a minimum-salary contract and hold on to their minimal flexibility after that.  In that case, they could look to a UFA or have a 13th forward come up from AHL Texas; after that, any movement would again be linked to their ability to bank cap space in-season depending on injuries.  Again, I think there’s a move to make on the back end but it’ll be closer to March than October.

FeeltheThunder: There have been some reports and chatter that Tampa should go after Nashville’s young goalie Yaroslav Askarov to backup Andrei Vasilevskiy. Many feel Vasy would be more open to not taking on so many games if he had a backup goalie that he felt comfortable sharing with.  Not that he doesn’t like Johansson or anything but the reality is Johansson is just an average goaltender at best. Furthermore, it wouldn’t hurt if that backup goaltender had the same cultural background either as Vasy.

What would Tampa have to give up to get Askarov from Nashville? One would assume the 2026 1st round pick would be the starting point. I’m sure a potential prospect would be added but I don’t think Tampa would give up Conor Geekie, Isaac Howard, or even Ethan Gauthier in the trade. Maybe they just bundle some draft picks.

First, while there has been chatter about Nashville dealing Askarov for more than a year now, I don’t recall seeing anything credible linking him to Tampa Bay specifically.  While he’d be an upgrade on Jonas Johansson, there’s not a path to prime playing time until Vasilevskiy’s deal ends in 2028.  If Askarov had a chance to pick his landing spot (he wouldn’t, I’m just making the point), I’d have to think the Lightning would be pretty low on his list.  Going and being a multi-year backup or platoon partner isn’t a path to a big-money contract.

As for what the cost would be, you’re really constraining them by taking Geekie, Howard, and Gauthier off the table.  If Nashville isn’t getting a high-end prospect in this trade, what’s their motivation to do it?  A future first-round pick (which might land in the 20s) isn’t exactly the ideal centerpiece of a swap; I have to think they turned down better than that at the last two drafts.  That pick with some lesser picks or lesser prospects is a package that I suspect quite a few teams would easily beat.

The hope is that Askarov is a future franchise goalie.  The cost has to be somewhat commensurate with that; a quantity over quality approach to a trade isn’t it.  I could see Nashville’s preference being a prospect-prospect swap where they’re getting an NHL-ready (or near-ready) impact player (top-six forward or a top-four defenseman) back for the netminder.  I don’t see Tampa Bay being the team to give that to them.

SkidRowe: Two Bruins topics:

1) What’s going on with Swayman? How far apart do you think they are? Could Swayman’s camp be asking for more than the Bruins have remaining under the cap ($8.6m)? What’s he gonna do, sit out?

2) Apparently, the Bruins are counting on middle-six minutes and secondary scoring from a couple of youngsters; Poitras (20 yo, former 2nd-round pick, 15 points in 33 NHL games) and Lysell (21yo, former 1st-round pick, zero NHL games). If either of those guys fail, they can turn to Merkulov (23yo, former college free agent, zero points in four NHL games) or elevate Brazeau (26yo, undrafted junior player, seven points in 19 NHL games) from the 4th line. Is this strategy going to pay off?

1) With no arbitration option this time around (both sides passed on filing), there is no real pressure point on either side for a while yet so this probably will drag out for a while longer.  It’s hard to guess how far they’re apart as part of the issue here I suspect is that they’re still working on deals of varying lengths, meaning the gap will be different for each one.  My guess is that they’re not overly close and until we get closer to training camp where one side might move a little, I don’t expect to see much news on that front.

I don’t see Swayman’s camp asking for more than $8.6MM per season.  His career high in games played in a single NHL season is 44 so as of today, he’s not even truly proven as an undisputed number one.  He’s heading in that direction but hasn’t played enough to get there yet.  I think the end result on a long-term deal starts with a seven, maybe eight times eight at most.  If they wind up on more of a medium-term agreement, the cost probably begins with a six.

2) At this point, what other option do the Bruins have?  They couldn’t afford to make a commitment to a more impactful forward earlier in free agency as they need to get Swayman signed first to see what they have left to spend.  If they went and added a top-six piece, then they’re forcing themselves into probably taking Swayman to arbitration, getting a one-year settlement in the $5MM range, and going through the same thing next year.  The patient approach will limit their options to add short-term depth but should allow them to get their franchise goalie signed.

At some point, the Bruins need to start getting some contributions from their prospect pool.  Matthew Poitras was starting to slow down before his injury but he’s earned a chance to break camp and see if he can hold down a spot.  Fabian Lysell is one of their top prospects and flirted with a point per game in the minors last year so yes, he’s probably worth a look.  Frankly, those two have more pure upside than what’s left in free agency and they don’t have a lot of trade chips to use.  Having said that, I do see Boston being active on the PTO front to see if they can get a decent veteran or two in as a hedge against the youngsters struggling or Swayman signing a shorter-term deal (opening up more cap flexibility).

vincent k. mcmahon: If Krug’s playing career is hypothetically over (although it’s still up in the air on if he can or can’t resume playing) does this put pressure on the Blues of adding another d-man outside of the additions of Suter and Joseph?

It depends on what their intentions are for this season.  If they think they’re a playoff team, then yes, they need to go add another blueliner (although there’s not much left on the open market).  But looking at the Central Division and St. Louis’ roster in general, I don’t see the Blues being a playoff team this season.

If that’s the case, my thought is that they’d be better off not filling that spot, instead using it to learn more about their younger options.  They have four rearguards either 24 or 25, Matthew Kessel, Scott Perunovich, Tyler Tucker, and the recently-signed Pierre-Olivier Joseph.  How many of those are future building blocks?  At some point, they need to figure that out.  Using this season to do just that might be the better play in the long run.

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