PHR Mailbag

We are effectively near the midway point of the NHL’s summer season.  Free agency has slowed down with teams looking for bargains while the last few players of note are holding out hope that a team will improve their offer or find a way to make a trade to open up extra cap space.  Meanwhile, the trade market has stayed cool but that could change at any time.

So, with a general lull in the summer period, it’s a good time to reopen the mailbag to talk about what has happened and what could still be coming.  Our last call for questions saw enough submissions to fill three columns.  The first included discussion about Bowen Byram’s future in Buffalo, the state of goaltending, and the K’Andre Miller trade.  Topics in the second included Washington’s potential forward logjam, tanking in professional sports, and the best and worst summers so far.  Lastly, the third covered what’s next for Montreal, why the Devils haven’t been able to clear Ondrej Palat’s deal, contenders for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, and more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include good and bad moves from this summer’s spending spree, possible contenders for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

RPIsFinest: Teams like the Leafs and Rangers seemed pretty open about the need for big changes this summer. Is this what they had in mind? Or are bigger moves coming? Or has the fact that a lot of the top UFAs opted to stay put hampered their plans?

Now that the FA market has come and gone, do we see teams making some big trades to revamp their rosters or stand pat?

I think the lack of impact talent to actually reach the open market really limited some planning.  I suspect Toronto might have preferred to add a top-six piece to replace Mitch Marner but flipped to adding better depth to their roster which I suspect was their Plan B all along.  For the Rangers, they moved out two key pieces in Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller while adding Vladislav Gavrikov.  Coupled with some of the trades from last season including bringing in J.T. Miller, I think they’ve done the bulk of their big changes.  In general though, I suspect more teams had bigger things in mind than they were able to do.

I’ve seen speculation saying that the trade market is going to be more robust than normal in the next few weeks and some saying that the bigger moves might come in-season but earlier than the market typically heats up.  I agree more with the latter.  We’re at the point of summer where the big player-for-player swap usually doesn’t happen as teams tend to lean more toward keeping the one that they’re familiar with.  But if things don’t get off to a great start 20 games in or so, they might be more inclined to try the shakeup.

Da Hammerer: What has come of the situation between the Flyers and Ryan Johansen? A friend implied he read an article or tweet the grievance was squashed, but I’ve been unsuccessful in finding anything beyond the announcement of the grievance hearing that was scheduled. Of all the articles I’ve read about their cap and dead cap hits, none mentioned any impact from Johansen’s contract situation.

There’s not much out there about this situation.  They’ve gone ahead and held the hearing but the results were never revealed.  Whether that means there was a settlement reached or the outcome is still pending remains to be seen.  I suspect there’s a good chance we won’t hear about it either.

As for the cap implications, let’s start with the easy one first.  Nashville also received cap relief from the Johansen contract termination but they operated so far below the salary cap all season long that even if the cap hit got retroactively reapplied, they’d still be under last year’s $88MM ceiling.  So, for the Predators, they’re fine.

The Flyers are a little harder to pin down given that some of the daily tracking is done behind paywalls so I don’t have a precise end-of-season number for them.  And what is available has a bit of variance.  CapWages had their finishing space at $8.99MM but that included the LTIR pool for Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM); back that out and they’re at $2.74MM.  PuckPedia had them around $2.65M in mid-March so there’s a rough range to work with.  But Matvei Michkov’s $1MM in earned ‘A’ bonuses need to be deducted from that pool.  Accordingly, if Johansen’s cap charge was retroactively applied to last season, there would be around a $2.4MM overage or so applied to the upcoming season.  That would push the Flyers into using LTIR as things stand, meaning that any earned bonuses in 2025-26 would then hit the cap in 2026-27.  So, there’s some murkiness about their situation but given how quiet things have been in this case, I don’t expect it will come to that.

KS Habs: Any further moves by Kent Hughes and the Canadiens? I know they have looked into a 2nd Line wing or center but there is not a lot on the market. Is there a chance Rossi, McTavish head back to the Habs or do they like try with Kirby Dach at center again? A second question is what do you think a Lane Hutson contract extension would look like? 8 x $10? Thanks!

By all accounts, the Canadiens don’t appear to be seriously pursuing Marco Rossi at this time which, given their need and desire to upgrade down the middle, is a little telling.  As for Mason McTavish, I’m sure they’re interested in him but I’m not sure why Anaheim would look into moving him.  The absence of a contract for him isn’t really an indication that he’s available, it’s just what happens with a lot of younger talents coming off entry-level deals without arbitration rights; these situations can often drag on.  But if he were to become available, I’m sure Montreal would make a serious push.  But at this point, I expect they will head to training camp with the centers they have which means Dach getting another look down the middle.

As for Hutson, I took a look at some comparables for him a couple of months back and not much has changed since then with only one more to add to that range, his new teammate.  Your proposal falls within the range of those comparable players and in this marketplace with the salary cap set to jump a couple more times, it’s not crazy even though it’s a sky-high number for someone who has all of one season under his belt.  But I don’t think Montreal would make that offer right now.  When they just gave Noah Dobson, a player with a 70-point season under his belt and a longer track record, $9.5MM per season for eight years, it feels like they wouldn’t go higher for that on Hutson.  It’s notable that only two seasons of Dobson’s deal were UFA years while Hutson has five in his.  So, right now, I think their internal cap for a Hutson contract comes in below that.

Schwa: When we look back in a couple of years, who will we look at as being the best/worst deals (for signings and/or trades)?

You haven’t specified which period to cover for these signings and trades so I’m going to operate as if you’re asking about the recent dealings and contracts from this offseason.

For the best moves, I have some that might be surprising.  Giving Jake Allen five years when he’s about to turn 35 is crazy in theory but they got him so far below market value (he likely would have landed more than double his $1.8MM AAV) on the open market that the risk is mitigated.  Yes, there’s a chance that he might have to be waived and buried in the minors by the end (at which point, the dead cap charge would be less than $500K) but there’s so much surplus value in the first few years that it should work out well.  I also liked the Aaron Ekblad contract with Florida.  Again, it might be problematic at the end but he’s still a solid number two option and should be for several more years and that’s a price that’s well below current market value.  He left a good chunk of money on the table to stay with the Panthers.  As for a trade, I’ll pick Matias Maccelli to Toronto for a conditional third-round pick.  If he goes back to being a legitimate top-six piece as he was in the final year in Arizona, that’s a small price to pay (even if it’s elevated to a second rounder) for a top-six piece with some team control.

On the flip side, I have another Florida contract on the worst list, that being Brad Marchand’s six-year deal worth $5.25MM per season.  If he’s a top-six player, $5.25MM is fine.  But he wasn’t a top-six player with the Panthers and that isn’t going to change unless injuries arise.  So now, you have a high-priced third-liner signed until he’s 43.  I get trying to keep the band together but that could be a problem contract early and often.  The other one that comes to mind covers a signing and trade, that being Nashville sending Jeremy Lauzon and Colton Sissons (with 50% salary retention) to Vegas for Nicolas Hague.  From a value perspective, that wasn’t a great deal for the Predators on its face but add in four years at $5.5MM to a player who has largely been on the third pairing and it goes from bad to worse.  I think Hague is a useful defender but to overpay in cost and contract on a team that doesn’t seem particularly close to a playoff spot seemed largely unnecessary.

DevilShark: Would the Sharks (or Hawks) do a solid to the Devils and pick up Palat like they did with Goodrow? Depth wing, good mentor. They still have issues with the cap floor too… I’m surprised a solution hasn’t materialized here for NJD.

There are a few things that make an Ondrej Palat trade to those teams less likely.  The first is the two years remaining on his contract.  Both San Jose and Chicago have taken on more than a one-year deal but I don’t think it’s something they want to do a lot of.  Also, both teams are already comfortably above the cap ceiling for next season so that’s not a factor as well.

The second is Palat’s 10-team no-trade clause.  It’s quite possible (if not probable) that he has those two teams and some other lower teams in the standings on his list to prevent the type of trade you’re hoping for from actually happening.  Most top teams won’t accept a multi-year cap dump so stack the no-trade list with the teams at the bottom of the standings and he should be protected.  And if you’re thinking about merely waiving him as the Rangers did with Barclay Goodrow, his no-move protection is basically a no-waivers clause so that’s not on the table.

The third is the money.  Goodrow carries a $3.64MM cap charge.  Andre Burakovsky is at $5.5MM for two years but Chicago got to offload the final year of Joe Veleno’s contract which has to be factored in.  Palat’s older than both of them and at $6MM, he costs more too.  That also means he’ll cost more to be offloaded as in New Jersey will need to attach an asset or burn a retention slot to move him, something they probably don’t want to do.  I’m not shocked a move hasn’t materialized for the Devils as this is a harder sell given the cost of the contract.

SkidRowe: Could you please compare and contrast Connor Bedard and James Hagens?

I can try but as I’ve noted before, scouting is not necessarily my strong suit.

Offensively, both are strong skaters but their main skill is different.  For Bedard, he’s an elite shooter and while he’s not a bad playmaker by any stretch (over time, with better linemates, I think we’ll see that part of his game improve), his shot is his high-end threat.  With Hagens, his passing is his standout skill.  If you’re looking for the more cerebral player, it’s Hagens with Bedard being the bigger game-breaker.

Defensively, it’s a little harder to compare, largely because Bedard hasn’t been in a spot to evaluate that.  In junior, he was the go-to player who had the green light to cheat a bit defensively while in the NHL, he’s basically had that same role with Chicago more focused on lottery odds than winning games.  Over time as they get more competitive, it’ll be interesting to see how that side of his game evolves.  With Hagens, while he’s more of an offense-first player (most top forward prospects are), he has adapted well enough to the college game at that end and showed improvement with his defensive reads. He might not be a true two-way threat but Hagens showed that he shouldn’t be a big liability at that end of the ice.

The other element to compare is positional.  Bedard is undersized for a center and while he has been force-fed big minutes down the middle early in his career, the early returns of handling the position haven’t been great.  Again, part of that is the sink-or-swim approach and a bad surrounding cast but there’s a case to be made that he might be better off on the wing.  Hagens is similarly undersized but profiles better as a center with his more cerebral game and at least some defensive conscientiousness.  He should stay at that position long-term while the more I see Bedard, the more I think the wing may make more sense for him.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include assessing San Jose’s busy last few weeks, early offseason winners and losers, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we have one more to run from our last callout for questions next weekend.

letsgonats: The Capitals seemed to come in second place for the Ehlers sweepstakes. If McMichael moves to 3C, who is the 2nd line LW and 3rd line RW? It seems that the Caps trade a lot for Sourdif so he is given a 4th line winger slot. Do the Caps pull a trade we are not thinking about or do they take two from Beauvillier, Frank, Milano, Miroshnichenko, Cristall, Trineyev, or Lapierre and only a few have AHL options so waiver or trades for the others?

Before I answer your scenario, I’m going to throw another one out there.  What if they flip McMichael and Pierre-Luc Dubois, a player who has played on the wing before?  I could see them giving that a shot at some point as well, keeping both players in the top six.  In your McMichael as the third-line center scenario, I think Ryan Leonard is on the right wing, allowing them to continue to ease him in.  Right now, I think Anthony Beauvillier gets the spot on the second line to start at least.  In a perfect world, a youngster forces his way into that spot but better to be conservative in early forecasting.  And I agree on Justin Sourdif; at a minimum, he’s on the fourth line with Nic Dowd and Brandon Duhaime.

I don’t see Ivan Miroshnichenko or Bogdan Trineyev realistically pushing for a roster spot.  The former is waiver-exempt while the latter will need waivers.  Hendrix Lapierre makes it since he’s waiver-eligible and won’t get through without being claimed.  I’d have him as the 13th forward which isn’t ideal development-wise.  It wouldn’t shock me if Sonny Milano and Andrew Cristall are battling for the 3LW spot.  If Cristall is ready, Milano lands on waivers and if not, he starts in Hershey.  That leaves Ethen Frank who I think they’d be comfortable keeping as the 14th forward, something they can afford with their current cap space.  That would push Dylan McIlrath to waivers but he has cleared several times before and should again.

With some waiver-exempt pieces, there isn’t as much of a logjam as it might seem.  Honestly, I could see them sniffing around on another forward should one become available and if that pushes Frank to waivers, I think they’d be okay with that.

SirCobblestone: With the addition of the Sharks on defense (even if it’s not done I assume) and the potential add of Misa with Dickinson and Askarov, where do you see the Sharks land with a top six composed of Celebrini, Misa, Smith, and Eklund at Wing and Toffoli with Orlov and Klingberg. That should be a good add on defense.

You’re missing a top-six forward in there which I imagine will be Alexander Wennberg, at least until he’s traded as a rental center at some point in the season, allowing one of Will Smith or Michael Misa to get some time in at their natural position.  That group has a lot of upside but teams with that many youngsters in prominent roles are going to struggle.  There’s just no way around that with four entry-level forwards in the top six.

As for the defense, it has definitely improved with the additions of Dmitry Orlov, Nick Leddy, and John Klingberg but that’s a low bar to clear as San Jose’s back end was really bad last year.  The problem is that it’s still not very good.  Klingberg is a question mark defensively and Leddy is coming off a really rough year.  Orlov is overpaid but decent at least.  If Sam Dickinson is added to this group (they’re going to need to move out more than just Henry Thrun for that to happen), there will be some growing pains defensively although he’d give them a big lift offensively with Klingberg.  This is the definition of a patchwork back end; of the seven they have signed now on one-way deals, only one (Orlov) is signed beyond this season.  It’s better but this is still not a playoff-worthy group.

As for the goaltending, Yaroslav Askarov is the big wild card.  Like many, I have high expectations for him over the long haul but for the upcoming season, there are going to be some growing pains as he adjusts to being the starter at the NHL level for the first time while playing behind a defense that still isn’t particularly strong.  Alex Nedeljkovic is a serviceable backup but I expect his numbers to nosedive next season given the situation.

So, where do I see San Jose next season?  Probably in the same spot where they were last season, in the basement of the Pacific Division.  Things are definitely looking up and they’re not going to be down there for much longer but this is going to be another season where process and development are more important than results.  They’re not ready to emerge from the rebuild yet and their activity this summer suggests GM Mike Grier is fully aware of that.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Let’s play hypothetical and say the Devils DO trade Dougie Hamilton, what kind of return could we be looking at??? And likeliest trading partners????

I’m going to go with the second question first here.  I could see Toronto being in there as they could use a top offensive threat.  Detroit has done next to nothing to improve a back end that certainly struggled last year so they’d be in the mix I’d think.  I’m sure Dallas would love to swing that but the term remaining would be an option; I think they’re more of a fit for Erik Karlsson if Pittsburgh pays down a good chunk of his deal.  Buffalo has been searching for an impact right-shot defender for ages now but it would surprise me if he’s on Hamilton’s list of 10 teams he’d accept a trade to.

Several teams can afford him but at the stage of the rebuild they’re in, they’re probably not a good fit.  Others like Calgary and Winnipeg don’t seem like teams on his trade list either.  And this is the problem; between Hamilton’s trade protection, cap hit, and performance, there’s not a great market for his services.  I don’t even think Detroit would be on his yes list so we’re down to Toronto and if New Jersey wants to pay down some of the contract, maybe Dallas.

So, the short answer to your question in terms of a return is nothing that would justify trading Hamilton.  If Pittsburgh trades Karlsson, they’ll be able to get positive value but probably nothing of consequence.  Salary ballast, maybe a second-round pick, and perhaps something else.  That’s something, but nothing to get excited about.  Is Hamilton going to be able to bring back more that with three years left on his deal?  Maybe if it’s more of a player-for-player straight-up swap (if Morgan Rielly was willing to waive his trade protection, maybe there’s a foundation of a trade there) but otherwise, I wouldn’t be counting on it.  So, something around what I think Karlsson would get would be my answer to the first question.

Hamilton managed to be healthier last season but also dropped below 20 minutes a night which, for a $9MM blueliner, is a little concerning.  With Johnathan Kovacevic out for a bit to start the season, I don’t expect them to seriously consider trading him.  The Devils want to stay in the playoffs and Hamilton is a better insurance policy than whatever bits and pieces they could get in a trade.

tucsontoro1: Is it time for the league to do something substantial about tanking?

The Blackhawks are clearly in “full tank mode” for the 25–26 season.

Let me answer your question with a question – how would the league do that?  The NHL has already lowered the draft odds and it hasn’t served as a deterrent.  They’ve also put in something saying a team can’t advance their pick in the lottery more than twice in five years, a change that hasn’t garnered much attention yet since it hasn’t come into play.

The NBA gives equal odds for the bottom three finishers (and fourth is only a bit lower) but that didn’t stop teams from tanking for Cooper Flagg.  And the end result for two drafts now has been a team with odds of 3% or less jumping up to the top spot (Dallas from 11th to take Flagg and Atlanta from 10th to take Zaccharie Risacher).  Will that stop teams from tanking in basketball next season?  Probably not.

MLB started drawing for the first six selections back in 2023 instead of going by reverse standings while also putting some restrictions on teams drafting in the lottery back-to-back times.  Did that stop the Athletics from tanking for three straight years?  Nope, even though they were slotted 11th in last week’s draft as a result of the rule changes.  The White Sox were terrible last year but knew going in that they couldn’t pick in the lottery even if they had the worst record; clearly, it wasn’t a deterrent that prevented them from tanking.  Meanwhile, there are some overtly tanking teams there this season too (including the White Sox again, no less).  And the NFL still goes by reverse standings with teams already seemingly jockeying themselves for first overall.

Sure, the NHL could flatten the odds more or put more restrictions on picking in the top five, for example.  But in the grand scheme of things, if that happened, does anyone think Chicago or San Jose would change course?  In a system where top young talents are distributed through a draft system, teams are going to try to position themselves to have the best chance at getting one of those if they know they’re not in a spot to realistically contend for a playoff spot.  This strategy, one that exists in each of the big four professional sports, isn’t going anywhere.

SkidRowe: What can the Bruins do? They need scoring and have only $2 million in cap space. Would you trade Zacha, Poitras, Mittelstadt, Minten, or Korpisalo?

I’m going to say no to trading Matthew Poitras or Fraser Minten.  Might they fetch a capable veteran to help in the short term?  I think they would.  But they’re not going to bring back enough of a difference-maker to materially improve Boston’s fortunes.  These are young centers with some promise and that’s the type of player they need to be keeping around as longer-term fits.

If Boston is confident that Michael DiPietro can be a capable NHL backup, moving Joonas Korpisalo makes sense in theory.  Jeremy Swayman can probably handle a similar workload to last season, meaning DiPietro would only need to make 25 starts or so.  The question here, however, is what market is there for a goalie right now, especially one with a cap charge of $3MM (not including the $1MM Ottawa is covering)?  He could fit in Edmonton but they can’t afford him.  Same with Vegas.  Maybe Carolina but is he demonstrably better than their tandem?  I like the idea of trading Korpisalo more than the potential of it actually happening but if it did, that’s something they could reinvest into their offense.

The other two are a little more interesting.  Casey Mittelstadt isn’t a rental, he has a track record of some offensive success, and he’s a center.  Given the immense demand for capable middlemen right now, I think there would be a good market for him.  On the other hand, Boston’s center depth isn’t great and I’d like to see how he fares under new head coach Marco Sturm first.  If the new system helps get him going, he could be more of a potential longer-term fit.

If Boston is comfortable with deploying one of the two young centers on a regular basis (or playing one of Sean Kuraly or Mikey Eyssimont on the third line), Pavel Zacha could be expendable.  At $4.75MM, he’s someone some teams can afford and while he’s coming off a quieter year, 47 points is still decent; it was good enough for a share of third in team scoring.  But it begs the question of why Boston, a team that needs firepower, would move one of their better point-getters from a year ago?  Maybe if there’s a winger that’s signed or controllable for longer than Zacha (a pending UFA), there’s a lateral swap to be made but otherwise, I’d reassess closer to the trade deadline.

Despite Boston’s spending spree this summer, I don’t think they’ve done enough to get back to the playoff picture.  Moving one of those pieces for a bit more firepower on the wing isn’t going to change that.  So, personally, I wouldn’t be making any win-now trades unless this group proves me wrong and shows it’s worthy of some moves to help them in the second half of the season.  Otherwise, Zacha could be a very useful rental for someone, yielding the Bruins a nice future asset in return.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Carolina’s acquisition of K’Andre Miller, the Bowen Byram situation in Buffalo, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in one of our next two mailbag columns.

MoneyBallJustWorks: I imagine the Maple Leafs aren’t done tinkering with their lineup. What do you see as the next move for this team and do you think they are a tougher team to play against today than they were at the end of last year?

Technically, it turns out that the next move was them finding a taker for Ryan Reaves with them getting Henry Thrun from San Jose for him.  Maybe Thrun makes the team as a seventh or eighth defenseman, maybe he winds up on waivers.  But with Reaves set to count for $200K against the cap had he been back with the AHL’s Marlies (he makes $1.35MM and the maximum buriable amount is $1.15MM), they at least saved a bit of cap space.

I think there’s some smoke to the Jack Roslovic speculation.  He was recently connected to Toronto and while the talk of reconnecting with Auston Matthews seems a bit overblown, I think there’s a fit.  The Maple Leafs feel like a team that’s going to shake up the lines a bit more next season so having some players who can move up and down in the lineup with some positional flexibility makes sense.  A short-term deal with him that gives him a soft landing and allows Toronto to keep its options open soon after feels like a reasonable move to make.

As for being tougher to play against, it depends on what you mean by tougher.  If you mean are they more physical, maybe.  Nicolas Roy isn’t overly physical but he plays more of a heavy game than Mitch Marner.  Matias Maccelli is one of the least physical players in the league so if you say he takes Pontus Holmberg’s spot on the roster (not in terms of line placement), that might offset any physicality gain from Marner to Roy.  But if you mean more difficult to play against, no.  I like Roy and Maccelli but that’s a big drop in talent compared to Marner.  If I’m an opposing coach, one less star player to gameplan against means they’re probably less difficult of an opponent (but still a strong team in general).

William 12: Is K’Andre Miller worth the price Carolina paid to get him? Also, who is your pick for best sneaky good/under-the-radar trade or free agency acquisition so far this offseason?

If Carolina can get Miller to settle down a bit defensively, he should be.  He is already a top-four defender who has shown flashes of being closer to a number two option at his best.  In this market, $7.5MM for a player with that ceiling isn’t bad, if, again, he becomes more reliable in his own end.

In terms of the trade cost, it would have cost them a first, a second, and a third had they offered $7.5MM on an offer sheet.  They’d have been capped at offering six years at that price as well.  The maximum denominator for an offer sheet is five years so a six-year offer would have been $45MM divided by five or $9MM for offer sheet purposes, keeping them just inside that threshold.  Was it worth parting with Scott Morrow to get two more years on the contract?  If they’re convinced that Miller can be the player they think he can be, I’d say yes.  Meanwhile, New York is probably quite pleased with the return as well.

I think Brent Burns to Colorado is a signing that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention.  Yes, he’s slowing down but he can still play on a second pairing and be a secondary contributor offensively.  With a bonus-laden structure, the contract gives the Avs extra flexibility to add another piece at some point either this summer or in-season and they’ll just have to absorb the bonus hit in 2026-27, cutting into their spending room then.  But when you’re in win-now mode, adding that good of a player for a $1MM base salary is pretty good.

Now, if you’re looking for someone more under the radar than that, I’ll nominate Jakob Pelletier.  He signed a three-year, minimum-salary deal with Tampa Bay with an AAV that will ultimately rise each year thanks to the pending increases to the minimum salary with the CBA extension.  He did pretty well in a bottom-six role last season in 49 games and has a track record of success at the lower levels.  He brings more upside to Tampa’s bottom line than they’ve had in recent years at as low a price tag as possible.  For a no-risk move, there’s some upside to it.

12Kelly: Now that Adams has filed arbitration on Byram, does that hamper any trade the Sabres were working on? I am very disappointed in our GM and I think we will end up keeping Byram as an unhappy player and go through this next year. Why can’t Adams make a good trade, especially since the Blues are really interested in Byram? Another year of missing the playoffs is on the horizon.

In the immediate term, Buffalo’s decision to take Bowen Byram to arbitration doesn’t necessarily hamper any trade talks.  If there’s a team out there – St. Louis or otherwise – who wants him, they can swing a trade and try to sign him before the arbitration hearing which will be scheduled between July 20th and August 4th.  If the hearing is more toward the back of that range, there’s still upwards of three weeks to work something out.  That’s still ample time, especially if the acquiring team has a good indication of Byram’s asking price already.

But once things get closer to the hearing, then it’s going to hamper talks.  Because the Sabres were the team to file against Byram, Byram gets to pick the term of the contract – either one or two years.  The latter would walk him right to UFA eligibility at the age of 26 so that definitely is going to be a temptation.  Once they get to the point of starting the hearing, that’s it and if Byram does pick the two-year deal, his trade value is going to dip as there won’t be the ability to work out a long-term agreement as part of the swap.  Suffice it to say, there’s a firm clock now and it’s definitely running.

The decision to take him to arbitration was to take the threat of an offer sheet off the table, one that would have secured Buffalo only draft-pick compensation.  And at this point, it feels like some of the suitors are preferring to go with futures-based offers which is what GM Kevyn Adams doesn’t want as his goal is to get the Sabres back to the playoffs.  That’s a goal that already seems unlikely and without Byram, it would be even tougher.  The decision to take the offer sheet option off the table hedges against that happening but it cranks up the pressure.

ljfranker: What would the Blues have to pay for Byram? Is Jiricek, Stenberg, and offer sheet compensation reasonable?

haubrick: Do the Blues ultimately pull off a trade for Bowen Byram?

Let’s put the St. Louis questions together here.  I assume the projected contract offer for Byram is in the $7.02MM to $9.36MM tier which carries a return of a first-round pick, a second rounder, and a third rounder.  That plus two first-round prospects in Adam Jiricek and Otto Stenberg feels like quite the overpayment.  That’s more than what Montreal gave up for Noah Dobson who is a more proven player.  And yet, I don’t think Buffalo would say yes to that even though the offer would be in their favor.

As noted above, the Sabres aren’t thinking about rebuilding.  They’re banking on this group taking a step or two forward and getting into the mix for a Wild Card spot this season.  While it’s fair to question whether that’s the right approach, achieving that goal would be much harder by taking out a top-four defender and replacing him with a bunch of future assets that aren’t NHL-ready yet.

For St. Louis or any other team to get Byram in a trade, there has to be a key core player coming back to get Buffalo at least more open to the idea of moving him.  Think Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, or even Jordan Kyrou who has popped up in trade speculation although he has a no-move clause that could scuttle that thought in a hurry.  If they want to avoid dipping into Torey Krug’s LTIR pool, they’ll basically need to match whatever they give Byram in terms of outgoing salaries which could add another player or two to the swap as well.  I’m not sure the Blues are willing to part with that core piece (making it a change to the core, not a true addition) which is why I’m skeptical that they can get this over the finish line.

Dan from Buffalo: Lifelong Sabres fan, I’m 100% hoping we re-sign Alex Tuch at some point this offseason. I know he’s due for a nice raise from his current deal, should I be worried the longer the summer goes with no news?

I wouldn’t be worried if the summer comes and goes without an extension.  While some players move quickly to sign contract extensions as soon as they’re eligible – we saw that with a few players on July 1st – many more haven’t yet.  And it’s a pretty prominent list of those eligible who haven’t, one that includes Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor, and Jack Eichel, among many others.  Those teams shouldn’t be worried yet so it’s not time to worry about Tuch just yet either.

At this point, it feels like players seem a bit more open to waiting things out and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the case with Tuch here.  I don’t question his stated desire to stick around but at the same time, I think he might want to see where things stand before putting pen to paper on a new contract.  If Buffalo winds up having a change of heart and moves Byram for futures or struggles out of the gate in the first half, leaving Adams to seriously start to ponder another rebuild, Tuch’s enthusiasm for sticking around for the long haul might be tempered.

If Tuch remains unsigned a couple of weeks before the trade deadline, that’s when I’d start to get concerned from a Buffalo perspective.  While the Sabres re-signed a pair of pending UFAs close to the deadline back in March, there’s a big talent difference between Tuch versus Jason Zucker and Jordan Greenway.  Those two wouldn’t yield the type of impactful future-based return that Tuch would, one that would be difficult for Adams to pass up at that point.  But for now, the fact that an extension hasn’t been signed less than two weeks after being eligible isn’t too concerning.

PyramidHeadcrab: Is there a goaltending shortage in the NHL? It seems like quite a few teams are searching for a true starter where none are available, with a large drop-off in quality after the top 20-25 netminders. This doesn’t seem to be an issue with other positions, though those positions typically take less time to cook.

If true, how could this problem be systematically rectified within the league? And considering the goalies in development and those yet to be drafted, does relief appear to be on the horizon?

It certainly feels like there’s a goaltending shortage in the NHL right now.  And there definitely is a drop-off quality-wise.  But I’m not sure there’s a big fix that can be made.

More teams appear to be navigating toward a lower-cost platoon system which means there isn’t necessarily a big differentiator between the starter and the backup goalie.  While top goalies like Igor Shesterkin can break the bank, I don’t think there are a ton of organizations who would be willing to go really high on a contract for a player that might only play in 70-75% of the games.

There’s also the matter of shooters being better.  I don’t know how many times I’ve caught myself when writing about a goalie’s save percentage, for example.  I might have something along the lines of so-and-so struggled with a SV% of just .902 before I remember that a mark just over .900 is now considered above average whereas a few years ago, it was below average.  A few years before that, if you could barely scrape above .900, you weren’t a guarantee to stay in the NHL.  Yes, some of that is a drop-off in the supply of good goalies but shooters now are better than they were not even a decade ago.

I suppose the fix could be to try to restrict some of the technological improvements for skaters or allow some equipment improvements for goalies but I doubt there’s much appetite for that beyond the goaltenders themselves wanting some extra help.

You could look at it from a grassroots perspective in that goaltender is the most expensive position for kids growing up.  But there’s no way around that and it’s not the NHL’s responsibility to be funneling money into youth hockey programs worldwide to offset the price of equipment so I don’t think there’s a fix there either.

I don’t expect things to change much moving forward.  There are a handful of above-average goalies in various prospect pools but certainly not an overwhelming amount that will eventually lead to a material improvement in goalie performance in the NHL.  Lots of the prospects out there carry the ceiling of a platoon netminder which, for a lot of organizations, isn’t viewed as a bad thing.

If I’m being honest, I don’t think the NHL truly considers this a problem.  For years, there were summits on how to increase goal scoring and now that this is happening, they’re probably pleased with that result.  There is still enough of a supply of higher-end starters that some teams have some flexibility in structuring their rosters (go for a true starter and a low-cost backup versus the more common 50/30 type of split) so it’s not a cookie-cutter situation in terms of roster-building.  Frankly, instead of it being a problem to solve, I suspect the NHL hopes that this is the new normal moving forward.

frozenaquatic: There was a discussion on r/hockey where we were talking about “best trades that benefited both teams.” There were a lot of obvious answers: Iginla for Nieuwendyk, ROR for Tage, RBA for Keith Primeau. But it got me thinking, what is the real answer to this question? We could only come up with one instance ALL-TIME where traded players won Cups with their new respective teams. STL trades Ian Cole to PIT for Robert Bortuzzo and a 2016 7th on March 2nd, 2015. Both Cole and Bortuzzo won cups with their new teams, both of them playing significant roles in the Cup run. Is this really the only case of this ever happening? Is this the greatest trade in NHL history?

Off-hand, I started looking through several seasons of old trades to see if I could spot one.  It served as a stark reminder about how a lot of trades wind up making very little of a difference in the long run but I couldn’t spot another one that met the criteria of both players winning a Stanley Cup with their new team.  I can’t sit here and say that’s the only instance of that happening – it easily could have back in the Original Six days (and I tried to look through some trades from those days to see if one popped) – but it has to be a pretty short list.

Does that make it the best trade in NHL history?  That’s one of those questions where the answer is in the eye of the beholder.  Was it ultimately a big win-win move (literally) for both sides?  It sure was.  But I suspect a lot of fans would have a different ‘best trade ever’ in mind.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.

It has been a busy few weeks across the NHL.  We have a repeat Stanley Cup champion, the draft has come and gone, and many players find themselves on new teams following some big trades and plenty of free agent signings with the bulk of the heavy lifting now finished on the offseason.

With that in mind, it’s a good time to reopen the mailbag.  Our last call for questions yielded enough topics for three columns.  The first discussed Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff struggles, Florida’s playoff proficiency, and more.  Topics in the second included an assessment of the Avalanche, ideal second center options for Montreal, and some offseason predictions.  The third included some talk about the Blackhawks, a Noah Dobson prediction (that didn’t quite hold up), and what Detroit needed to do this summer to have a successful offseason.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include talks on what Chicago and Detroit could try to do this offseason plus a center option for the Jets that they haven’t explored yet.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

Gmm8811: What would it take for the Blues to pry Tkachuk away from Ottawa? Kyrou and what else?

The short answer would be an awful lot.  I don’t see any reason why the Senators would move Brady Tkachuk.  But if they did, they would want someone with some grit.  The power forward nature of his game is a big part of his value and with all due respect to Jordan Kyrou who is a strong player, that particular element is not in his toolbox.

The other challenge with Kyrou as the foundation is that his money basically matches Tkachuk’s.  This might seem a little odd as matching money is normally a good thing.  In a case of a player for a player plus some future assets, that’s normally perfect.  But Ottawa isn’t taking an add-on of a first-round pick and a prospect.  No, they would want some other NHL-established talent.

Jake Neighbours would have to be in there at a minimum as the power forward piece.  I would think they’d want another core piece from that age group, maybe Philip Broberg.  Remember, for a ‘unicorn’ type of player, the price has to really hurt.  But those two make over $8MM now (and will make much more than that in 2026-27).  To keep matching money, the Sens would then need to include or offload at least some of that money, possibly further increasing the ask.  And round and round we go to the point where it’s simply not feasible.

There is probably only a handful of players in the league that Ottawa would trade Tkachuk for.  The Sens are on the rise; trading your captain who plays a pivotal role as you’re just emerging from the rebuild is a tactic that is very unlikely to happen.  And if it did happen, they’d want a similar-value core piece back, not a package.  I don’t think there’s a buildable fit here.

tucsontoro1: Put on your Kyle Davidson hat for a minute.

Who do I target in FA?

Ekblad, Marner, Bennett?

Davidson opted to spread the money around last summer on short-term contracts for veterans to help raise the floor of the group and lead them through what was likely to be a turbulent season.  They didn’t do the former but it was indeed another turbulent season.  But that aside, there’s light at the end of the tunnel.  The prospect pool is well-stocked, a good group of youngsters is coming, and Jeff Blashill is a decent coach which is an upgrade on what they had last year.  Things are looking up.

This makes it the time for Davidson to strike.  They have nearly $30MM of cap space per PuckPedia with their only pricey RFA of note looking like a near-lock to be non-tendered (Philipp Kurashev).  The young core group will get a lot more expensive over time but even so, they have the financial flexibility to go and try to buy a core piece on the open market.  It will probably require an overpayment given that they’re probably still a bit away from coming out of the rebuild but when the acquisition cost is zero, it’s justifiable.

Basically, the easiest way to answer the question is this.  Is the free agent a core player and projects to be one for years to come?  If the answer is yes, the Blackhawks will probably be calling.

Of the three you listed, Mitch Marner feels like the most likely to potentially sign.  Chicago is a big market which he’s accustomed to but the spotlight won’t be on him as much in that market compared to Toronto.  Connor Bedard is a solid running mate to potentially partner with or have Marner be the catalyst of a second line to help elevate some of the up-and-coming core group.  There’s a compelling case to make although a lot of teams will have compelling cases to make if he reaches the open market next month.

tucsontoro1: With the Hawks having the second-worst GA this season, don’t they target at least one solid d-man in free agency?

In theory, yes.  The point from the last question applies to defensemen too.  If there’s a long-term core player out there, I expect Davidson to try to sign him.

How many core defenders are out there though?  Aaron Ekblad would be a good fit – they could turn around and flip Connor Murphy and have youngsters Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel apprentice behind him for a little while and then as Ekblad gets a bit older, move him down the depth chart.  But can they make the best pitch when there will undoubtedly be more win-now options available?  (This is a question that applies basically to any core guy.)

Ivan Provorov and Vladislav Gavrikov are solid on the left side.  Team one of them up with Alex Vlasic and that side of the back end definitely looks better.

But if we’re talking about key defenders that would move the needle in a real way, that’s about it.  The leading point-getter among UFA blueliners is Matt Grzelcyk.  Ryan Lindgren is coming off a quieter year but can be a fourth defender.  Cody Ceci, Brent Burns, and Dante Fabbro are the next-best options on the right side – a player who was moved in a salary cap dump less than a year ago, a 40-year-old, and a player who was on waivers after no one wanted to trade for him earlier in the season.  These are good, useful players, but I doubt it’s the caliber you were thinking of with this question.

I’m sure Davidson will try to add a key blueliner on the open market but it’s a pretty small pool to try to draw from.

breakaway: If the Islanders draft Schaefer, do they look to trade Dobson and what could they get in return for him?

I’ve seen this idea out there and while I can track the logic, I don’t really agree with it.  Adding Matthew Schaefer to the roster does not make Noah Dobson redundant.  This is not a roster full of puck-moving defensemen by any stretch.  Beyond Adam Boqvist who is more of a depth piece, Dobson is the only other proven one in that category they have with any sort of meaningful NHL experience.  He and Schaefer can absolutely co-exist, especially since they play separate sides of the ice.

I wonder if adding Schaefer might make them move one of their lefties, however.  Adam Pelech’s $5.75MM price tag is a bit on the high side although with the way the free agent market could go, it might be viewed as an asset this time next month.  Alexander Romanov is a pending restricted free agent with arbitration rights like Dobson.  Keeping them would push their back end spending past the $30MM range.  But if one of Pelech or Romanov were to be moved, the remaining one, Schaefer, and Isaiah George could comprise the top three on the left side on opening night, keeping the cap charge a little more reasonable along the way.

Coming up with a trade value for Dobson isn’t easy.  Don’t get me wrong, his trade value is quite high.  But I have no idea what direction the Islanders are going here under new GM Mathieu Darche.  To me, I think they need to rebuild.  And if they opted to move Dobson in that situation, I think two first-round picks, a top prospect, and some sort of salary offset (ideally a defenseman) is attainable.  But if they’re not rebuilding (and if I had to guess today, this would be my pick of the route they take), now you’re looking at more of a player-for-player type of swap.  Maybe a two-for-one with a top-four blueliner and a key forward coming the other way with both players being signed or under club control for the long haul.  Going for a short-term veteran or two wouldn’t make sense.

With each scenario, the potential suitors vary considerably with a very strong return coming in either approach.  But I don’t think drafting Schaefer would push Dobson out, not unless Dobson’s contract demands ultimately have Darche leaning toward trading him.

Thefiend313: With Steve Yzerman under pressure from Detroit Red Wings fans, do you think he can pull off a blockbuster move and sign Mitch Marner?

Thefiend313: What do you think the Red Wings will target once free agency starts: Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Vladislav Gavrikov, or someone else?

Thefiend313: What does Steve Yzerman need to accomplish for the Red Wings to contend for the playoffs?

Let’s start with Marner.  Do I think Yzerman will target him?  Of course.  I expect somewhere around two-thirds of the league to at least passively kick the tires.  Detroit would be a tier above that and they have the money to afford him outright (more than $21MM per PuckPedia) without needing to clear out or offset money somewhere else.  That’s a good thing as not every team has that.  But if I’m Marner, the marquee UFA in this class, the Red Wings don’t feel like the most compelling team to sign with.  If I want to win now, they’re not a team to consider.  If I want top dollar and don’t care about short-term success, I can probably get the same money or more out of Chicago or Utah (or even Anaheim), teams that would appear to have a clearer trajectory to long-term success.  Marner leaving his hometown team to sign with a non-playoff division rival would be quite something but that doesn’t feel like a particularly likely scenario.

I’ll use a similar answer to the second question as I did for Chicago as it’s the same philosophy.  You need to get better and you have a lot of money with an RFA group that isn’t going to cost much.  It’s an even cleaner one for Detroit though.  While a short-term veteran doesn’t necessarily make sense for the Blackhawks, it does for the Red Wings who are indeed trying to win now, they just haven’t had much success at that lately.  So the question is basically this.  Is the player a core piece?  If the answer is yes, Yzerman will probably be targeting him.  In a perfect world, a viable second center emerges, potentially allowing them to flip one of J.T. Compher or Andrew Copp whose terms remaining on their contracts aren’t as concerning now for other teams to acquire.  But I doubt Yzerman would be too picky position-wise.  If there’s an upgrade, take it; it’s as simple as that.

As for what he needs to accomplish to be a playoff threat (that’s as far as I’d go, not a contender), they need a top-four upgrade on the back end.  You could sell me on two top-four additions if they want to ease Axel Sandin-Pellikka into the mix.  But you just saw the last answer about Chicago; getting two in this market would be tough.  Another legitimate scoring threat would help as well.  Patrick Kane coming back would help but another one on top of that, basically to fill the role that Vladimir Tarasenko was signed to fill last season.  Defensive improvements should get their roster near the middle of the pack in goals allowed and one more top-six threat might get the offense near the middle of the pack.  That should be enough to get them in the mix.  Not a lot of teams can add or re-sign that much talent in one summer though so this won’t be easy for Yzerman to accomplish.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an assessment of the Avalanche, several questions about the Canadiens, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more coming from our most recent call for questions.

Pearlo: Do we have a Colorado team spiraling towards a rebuild? No draft picks in first three rounds of the next draft, a very poor prospect pool, a very inconsistent Necas and a questionably effective Landeskog with no second line capable center in their top six as well as a fair top off after Girard with their defense with only $8MM in cap space to fill holes. Seems to me they are skating on pretty thin ice. What say you?

It’s safe to say you’re not in the glass-full camp.  There will come a time when the Avs need to flip the switch and think about the future.  I don’t think they’re there yet.  After all, they weren’t that far off getting through Dallas in the opening round in a matchup that wouldn’t have happened had it not been for a playoff format that is starting to lose its luster, no matter what the league wants to say.

This is a team that still has one of the top forwards in the league in Nathan MacKinnon.  They have one of the top blueliners in Cale Makar.  Those are two premier building blocks signed for at least the next two years; Makar will need a new contract in 2027 (and, barring injury, that will undoubtedly be setting a new NHL record for defensemen at that time).  When you have those pieces in place, it’s hard to say it’s time to take a step back even though your correct assessment of their pick and prospect cupboard suggests it’s an option that should be considered.

I expect Martin Necas will be better next season.  He’s going to have a lot to play for and a full training camp should help after being brought in midseason.  He won’t produce at the same level as Mikko Rantanen but I think he can produce like a top-liner.  On defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Chris MacFarland looks into moving one of Samuel Girard or Josh Manson which could allow the back end to be reshaped a bit and add some cap space potentially.

A lot is going to hinge on if they can address the second center spot.  Whether that’s re-signing Brock Nelson, finding someone externally, or even giving Necas an extended look there, filling that position would really solidify them having two strong scoring lines.  Even with all the question marks (and I’d put goaltending in there as well), that should be more than enough for them to safely be a playoff team.  There will come a time to rebuild.  I don’t think that’s coming for a while yet though.

SpeakofTheDevils: What does a Devils dream offseason look like? Trades? Free Agency? Etc.

First, getting Luke Hughes signed to a long-term deal.  I know the bridge pact would make things a lot easier for GM Tom Fitzgerald in terms of utilizing cap space but if the team feels he’s the high-end defender it looks like he can be, that’s someone you sign now before it gets a whole lot more expensive after a bridge deal.

I wrestled with putting this in their Offseason Checklist earlier this week but finding a way to offload at least most of Ondrej Palat’s contract would go a long way toward giving them some cap space.  I think they’re at a spot where trading with 50% retention is preferable to a buyout but the latter shouldn’t be ruled out.  Palat’s a serviceable player but that’s one spot they can upgrade.

They need to improve on their third center after a tough year from Erik Haula.  They were believed to be looking for that leading into the trade deadline but they might be able to get that in free agency.  They also could use a fourth-line pivot.

Adding a top-six winger would also be a big help.  For them to barely crack the top 20 in goals scored with the roster they have is a problem.  They’re better than that and a key addition should put them back in the top half.  In an ideal world, they land one of the better wingers available.

On defense, I don’t want to say they have an embarrassment of riches but they have a lot of depth and two promising youngsters in the pipeline in Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey.  Can one of those – maybe Jonas Siegenthaler – be packaged with someone like Haula to add a $6MM or so piece to further add on the wing?

And while we’re at it, a veteran goalie that’s a bit more reliable than Nico Daws would be nice too.

I’m sure you were hoping for some names but with how long that list is and their cap situation (barely $12MM in space per PuckPedia), they’re not going to get to all of those without some other moves being made first and I’d simply be guessing on those which doesn’t add much value to the discussion.  Realistically, if they got half or more of these done, it would be a solid offseason.  The dream one might have to wait at least one more year.

Unclemike1526: Since my other question basically was answered, would you please tell me if you’ve ever read anywhere that Mitch Marner won’t play for a rebuilding club?

If it makes you feel any better, the only assistant coach in Chicago I’d have predicted correctly was Anders Sorensen.  Keeping him around would be a good reward for coming up and struggling through the rest of this season so I felt confident about that.  I’d have been hypothesizing Jeff Blashill going after some assistants he had with Detroit had that situation not largely been finalized by last weekend.

As for Marner, I’ve not seen anything credible that says he wouldn’t play for a rebuilding club.  At this point, it feels like his intention is going to be that he’s going to go to the open market and see what’s out there.  If you’re taking that approach, you’re probably not going to rule out a bunch of options off the bat by saying he won’t go to a rebuilding club.

What is Marner’s priority?  Is it to go to a contender?  Not a lot of those have the type of money that he’ll be commanding.  Beyond re-signing with Toronto, Carolina would and, well, that’s about it.  Vegas is being suggested as a speculative link but that would require a lot of money being moved out first although their penchant for big swings means it can’t be ruled out.

But if his priority is top dollar, it might come from a non-contender.  Chicago should be aiming higher this summer.  Utah has an owner willing to spend, a team on the rise, and a lot of cap space.  Anaheim has a promising young core and the purse strings have been loosened a bit.  Columbus nearly made the playoffs with their group and might want to swing big as well.  There’s a compelling case to be made for any of those teams.

In a perfect world, Marner, or any other top free agent really, would get his cake and eat it too by finding a legitimate contender that has a lot of cap space.  He’ll have to figure out what level of importance to place on either of those options.  He has another month to do so before anything probably truly gets ruled out.

frozenaquatic: The NHL has about 10 Kershaws through history. Marner, Matthews, Panarin, Hellebuyck now. Historically, Yashin, Rick Nash, Todd Bertuzzi, Joe Thornton — even Marcel Dionne — were known to disappear come May. Stammer was accused of being a regular-season merchant for a while, but busted the reputation during the Covid Cup Dynasty. What do you think it takes to coach a guy to play with more intensity, take hits, block shots, not make east-west passes, go to the net, and find shooting lanes — to do the things necessary to play good playoff hockey? Who would even want Marner at $12 – 14 million if he has this reputation?

I don’t think there’s a coach out there who’s going to drastically change Marner’s style of play.  Over 700 games into his career (regular season and playoffs), he is who he is at this point.  If there wasn’t a material change under a coach with a tougher reputation in Craig Berube, I don’t think there’s necessarily a coach out there who is going to make him change the way he plays to do the things you listed on a full-time basis.

But what Marner is at this stage of his career is still a really good player.  He’s a premier playmaker, is pretty consistent offensively year-to-year, and his defensive game often goes under the radar.  There’s a reason he’s being projected to sign a record-breaking contract and that’s because of all of the positives he brings to the table.  The playoff performance doesn’t help his cause but it doesn’t materially cripple his value either.

As for who would want him?  The list of who wouldn’t is probably longer than the list of who would.  I expect any team that has that much money to at least kick the tires with probably six to eight teams making him their top target.  Players of his skill level are rarely available ‘for free’ on the open market.  His playoff reputation won’t be scaring many teams off.  Those teams’ coaches will be saying that they can make it work with Marner being exactly who he is.

Jaysen: Let’s say every player is available. What are your top 3 targets for 2C position if you are Kent Hughes? And what do you think is the value of Logan Mailloux in a trade? Not really overly impressed with him but I do know that defensemen take longer to develop.

Finally, Fowler seems like the real deal. I expect Dobes to back up Montembeault this year but next year? If Fowler develops the way he is supposed to, what do you do? Trade Dobes? Or do you go for the big decision and trade Montembeault do let Dobes and Fowler tend the twine??

The qualifier that everyone is available makes this a little unrealistic but I’ll play along and give you a couple more than three.  Anaheim’s Mason McTavish fits the age of Montreal’s core group and feels like someone they’d acquire and then sign long-term.  I don’t see the Ducks moving him though.  I’d throw Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles) and Matty Beniers (Seattle) in there as well but again, I don’t see them being available.  Maybe Barrett Hayton in Utah if they wound up taking a big swing at adding a center in free agency but that’s from a guarantee.  If Florida re-signs Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad and makes Anton Lundell available, he’d be on the list too but that’s three ifs.  The key elements are they’re young, have upside, and several years of team control or contract remaining.  But there’s a reason they’re so hard to come by.

Mailloux is a hard player to evaluate.  He’s still very raw and underdeveloped after his OHL career consisted of just 75 games or barely a single season so he’s behind on the development curve, so to speak.  Offensively, he can probably play at the NHL level now.  Defensively, he has shown flashes of being NHL-level there but at other times, he has struggled.  That’s not uncommon for young blueliners as you note but that type of inconsistency will give some teams pause.

As a young, right-shot blueliner with enough raw skills to play in the top four, there’s a lot to like.  But with how things have gone to this point, there will be some who shy away or come in low with offers knowing there’s some risk in acquiring him.  Other teams will probably feel that their coaches can get those fundamentals in place more frequently, making him a top-four option.  His trade value revolves around how he’s perceived.  If it’s a team that is hesitant, they’re probably going no higher than a second-round pick.  If it’s the latter category, a first-round value isn’t off the table.  I don’t think Mailloux is the centerpiece of a big trade this summer but if they find a team that believes in the upside, he could be a key component of one.

Goalie coaches have said in the past that they generally want a goalie to get at least 100 starts in the AHL.  I’ve seen some say 150.  Jacob Fowler is at all of eight at the moment.  Accordingly, I don’t think he’s even in the equation for full-time NHL duty for at least two more years at which time Sam Montembeault’s deal is up.  To be honest, I’m not even fully certain that Jakub Dobes is the full-time backup in Montreal next season as he’s only at 65 AHL games.  I could see Montreal signing a veteran third-stringer and then calling that goalie up periodically to give Dobes some games in Laval and a higher workload than he’d get as the permanent backup in Montreal.  If all goes well, they’ll have to make room for Fowler eventually but they’re probably not giving that serious thought for another 24 months or so.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include predictions for the three remaining head coaching vacancies around the NHL, Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff struggles, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in one of our next two mailbag columns.

yeasties: Just for funsies, predict who gets hired for the remaining head coach openings?

Let’s jump right in with a tough one, shall we?  There are three remaining openings after Jeff Blashill got the nod in Chicago: Boston, Seattle, and Pittsburgh.  Here are my picks for those three spots.

Bruins: I’ll go with Marco Sturm for them.  While internal options Joe Sacco and Jay Leach are believed to be in the mix still, can they really justify promoting from within after suggesting their intention is to get back to the playoffs next season?  Sturm has plenty of familiarity with the market after spending a lot of time there as a player which might appeal to management and ownership and he has been in the mix for a few top jobs now with experience as an NHL assistant and an AHL head coach.  He’s bound to get one soon and I think it might be here.

Kraken: The sense was that they were waiting for a candidate or two which tells me that Mitch Love may have been on their radar.  After Spencer Carbery did well as a first-time coach in Washington, it stands to reason that one of his assistants would get poached relatively quickly.  While I doubt management will come out and say this, this feels like a spot where they need to do a bit of a reset.  Getting a bit younger and taking a step back feels like a good opening for a first-time NHL head coach to allow him some time to get his feet wet without a lot of pressure.

Penguins: It wasn’t that long ago that Jay Woodcroft was viewed as one of the up-and-coming coaches before he got a short stint in Edmonton where a poor start last season cost him his job.  He has lots of experience working with younger players and at some point, Pittsburgh has to start getting younger.  On the flip side, he also has experience working in a win-now environment which, for better or for worse, appears to the fine line that they’re trying to walk, remaining competitive while getting younger.  A coach with some experience in both worlds like Woodcroft makes some sense here so I’ll go with him.

Schwa: Curious on your cup pick from the Final 4.

It’s hard not to go with Florida here.  The way they came back against Toronto and the way they’ve started against Carolina has been quite impressive.  The way that series is going, they could be in line for a bit of an extended break if it ends quickly which would be critical for a veteran-laden team who went all the way last season.  That would put them in a great spot to start.

My pick to come out of the West is Dallas but that’s not going to be a short series.  After needing 13 games to get this far and likely six or seven in this one, I’m a bit concerned that they might be a bit too worn down by the end of it.  And if Edmonton makes it a repeat of last year’s Final, their goaltending is even more erratic than it was a year ago with more inconsistent special teams.  It’s not that neither team couldn’t win but for me, the Panthers are the current favorite.

PyramidHeadcrab: So, what’s the deal with Connor Hellebuyck? If we look at advanced stats of the team around him, is it truly a case of an elite goalie consistently collapsing in the playoffs? Or is it the defense around him?

It’s absolutely stunning to see the Jets go from winning the Presidents’ Trophy to seeing Hellebuyck post the worst numbers of any goaltender in the playoffs – an unacceptable 0.866 save% (and it was worse than that at various points).

And I guess the follow-up question is… Where does the team go from here? Is this something that can be corrected?

I think there are two parts to it.  One is that the recent road struggles are in his head.  And it’s really only the road games that are the issue.  His home save percentage in the playoffs was .913 and while a pair of shutouts boosted that, those were his last two home games against a tough Dallas team.  I don’t want to take the easy way out and say it’s the yips but that’s a roadblock he’s going to have to get over and generally, the only way to do that is to keep throwing him out there in those situations.  And really, as their sure-fire starter, they’re going to keep doing that.  With the contract he has and not a particularly deep goalie pool of prospects, he will continue to be Winnipeg’s starter for the long haul.  This playoff run doesn’t change that.

The other factor at play that hurts here is game planning.  The book on Hellebuyck is that he’s more prone to be beat when he has to go side to side, suggesting more cross-ice play is the way to go.  If you’re a team playing Winnipeg in game 46 of the regular season, you’re aware of the scouting report but if you don’t play that way, you’re not going to overhaul your strategy for a random game in January.  But if you’re playing them in a best-of-seven series, you’re going to make some changes to try to maximize that particular weakness.  And that has happened for the last couple of years now.  The fix there is goalie coach Wade Flaherty coming up with some adjustments to help Hellebuyck improve in those situations or at least mitigate that weakness.  Considering how long he has been in the league for, I think the latter is more realistic than the former of those two options.

I have a hard time pinning a lot of this on the defense aside from perhaps not making adjustments of their own to take away some of the cross-ice options.  But they only allowed 23 shots per game in the playoffs which, while it’s a bit simplistic, is a number any team would be happy with.  I think Hellebuyck can get past this but there will definitely be question marks for his next playoff run.

The Duke: Lightning Round!

Is Merilainen Ottawa’s backup next season – and eventual #1?
More goals: Gauthier or Carlsson.
Is Snuggerud Top-6 and #1 PP unit?
Is Levshunov or Korchinski Chicago’s PPQB?
Levi’s short- and long-term future?

1) With Ottawa locking in with Linus Ullmark on a long-term pricey deal, it makes sense that the Sens would look to go with a low-cost backup.  That should give Leevi Merilainen the edge but with all of 14 NHL games under his belt, I think they’re going to want an insurance policy.  I could see them going after a lower-tier backup that could push for the backup spot or be on standby in the minors if Merilainen struggles.  Something sort of along the lines of what Buffalo tried to do this year with James Reimer although that didn’t work quite as planned.

2) Short-term, probably Cutter Gauthier.  But if Leo Carlsson’s training wheels eventually comes off and gets into that top-line role, he could be a 35-40-goal player if all went well.  I don’t see Gauthier reaching that level on an annual basis.

3) If all goes well, that should be the outcome for Jimmy Snuggerud.  He got a bit of time in those spots in the playoffs but I wouldn’t expect him to be a fixture in those spots next season as he’ll likely be moved up and down the lineup at times.

4) Out of the two, I’d say Artyom Levshunov since Kevin Korchinski didn’t exactly have a great season and I could see him back in Rockford, to be honest.  With how well Sam Rinzel played down the stretch, he probably will get a shot in that role as well.

5) I think it’s hard for Buffalo to call Devon Levi their starter of the future but I could still see him being viewed internally as a goalie of the future for him.  Whether that’s as a backup or platoon piece remains to be seen.  If it were up to me, he’d play in Rochester next season with Buffalo getting a more proven backup.  But if they need cap space to fill other holes, Levi could start next season as the backup once again.

FeeltheThunder: I’m quite curious about Tampa’s offseason plans. GM Julien BriseBois stated about a week ago that the organization is still debriefing on their offseason plans. However, the belief is they need to boost their bottom-six with more secondary scoring and some additional grit. Furthermore, there is speculation they also need to possibly upgrade their 3rd defensive unit. I’m wondering (and have some ideas) who they should look into or go after in FA whether it’s UFAs or even RFAs in retooling these areas to certain degrees as I would like to hear your thoughts?

Also, with Jeff Blashill leaving as an assistant, does this potentially open the door for Derek Lalonde to return who many Tampa fans want back on the staff?

One last thing, Tampa needs to move Conor Sheary which would give them an additional $2MM in cap space as that $2MM that could be used elsewhere, wouldn’t you agree?

Let’s answer these out of order as the last two are pretty quick.  I agree that they could better use Sheary’s $2MM but he also has negative trade value at this point.  They will have to attach an asset to clear his contract outright and is that better than waiving and burying him in the minors again, clearing $1.15MM off the books?  It depends on what they have in mind for adding to their roster.  As for Lalonde, it’s certainly a possibility if he wants to go back to that role.  But if he wants to be a head coach again, he could opt to stay on the sidelines and be available for any in-season openings, something that wouldn’t be an option if he were an assistant coach somewhere.

Tampa Bay has less than $6MM in cap space to work with, per PuckPedia.  With that, they have a forward or two to add or re-sign and probably at least one defenseman.  That doesn’t leave a lot of flexibility to work with although Gage Goncalves shouldn’t cost too much to re-sign.  Basically, they want to find someone who can fill Sheary’s spot better than Sheary and I agree, helping the third pairing would be ideal.  They’re going to have to aim low to do those things though with their lack of space.

I don’t see them targeting any restricted free agents as they lack the draft capital to go after some of the better options via an offer sheet while diluting their cupboards to fill a depth role doesn’t make a lot of sense when they can probably get a similar UFA to fill the spot where the only cost is money.

Some of the trade deadline candidates I suggested for them before make some sense here.  Luke Kunin won’t score a lot but gives them some positional versatility.  Joel Armia plays a good possession game that would fit on the third line and might only cost a bit more than Sheary.  I think Justin Danforth would be someone they’d like, a player who can play all three forward spots and can cover different roles in the lineup when needed.  When cap space is limited, flexibility becomes a lot more appealing.

For defensemen, assuming that Nick Perbix prices himself out of town, I think they’ll look at a short-term veteran on a one-year deal where they can get creative with bonuses to lower the 2025-26 charge.  Ryan Suter signed a contract like that this summer and might be willing to again.  If they want a right-shot option, Jeff Petry in a limited role could fit.  Jan Rutta, a familiar name for Tampa fans, could be open to a return to the role he had a few years ago.

In a perfect world, they bank some in-season cap space so out of that $5.8MM or so that they have, they might only spend $4.5MM this summer.  With a few players needing to be paid from that, they’re going to be bargain hunting for each role they’re trying to fill.

frozenaquatic: What do you think about this idea that the Panthers are franchise killers? They run roughshod over teams who have no answer for their combination of grit, compete, execution, and opportunism. I’m not a fan, but I’m in awe of how they dismantle teams and expose their flaws — with the Canes it looks like they’re being patient, goading them into taking penalties, and using their size advantage. If they win again this year, would you consider them a dynasty, or do they need one more championship?

Do you think they’ll try and retain Bennett? It seems like Ekblad is out the door, and I think he’s definitely a huge part of their imposing backend. Lastly, what do you think about the talk of them being “dirty,” “headhunting,” and Paul Maurice basically being a bounty coach (obviously not explicitly)?

Back-to-back championships would be impressive but that’s not enough to qualify as a dynasty.  They’d need at least a third in a short period of time to get into that discussion.  I also wouldn’t call them franchise killers.  They’re a well-balanced team with few weaknesses and a deeper roster than it might seem at first glance.  That, coupled with above-average physicality, makes them a tough team to beat but they’re far from unbeatable.  Toronto gave them a good run in five of their seven matchups, at least and had they not fallen apart in one of those, we could easily be seeing a Maple Leafs-Hurricanes matchup here.

I do expect them to try to keep Sam Bennett and I do think he’ll re-sign close to the start of free agency.  He won’t get top dollar from them but their no state tax situation should allow Florida to get close enough where it makes sense for him to stay.  I agree that Aaron Ekblad is likely gone; I think the move they made to get Seth Jones was his preemptive replacement while getting the benefit of having both for this playoff run.

I don’t think they’re necessarily a head-hunting team but they know where the line is and step over it from time to time.  I wouldn’t put Maurice in that category though.  He encourages his teams to be physical but that alone isn’t enough to put that particular qualifier on him.  But his roster has some players who, again, will go over that line at times but I feel that’s of their own volition, not from a sense of expectation from the coach that it needs to happen.

Photo courtesy of James Carey Lauder-Imagn Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the possibility of San Jose moving their top pick this year, offseason planning for the Blues, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column.

gowings2008: What are the Red Wings offseason plans? Trade and draft targets? Will they shed some bad contracts? Seems after today that the players expect more from management than what they’ve gotten recently.

I have to think it’s going to be more of the same from Detroit this summer.  They’re going to operate as if they’re trying to make the playoffs which will have them looking to add multiple veterans, just as they did last year.  With GM Steve Yzerman generally believing in a longer-term development path, I’d be surprised if they’re penciling in a bunch of their top youngsters on the NHL roster next season.  More likely is that most of them start in Grand Rapids.

I don’t see them being particularly active on the trade front in terms of trying to trade for impact talent, short of trying to find a change of scenery trade for someone like Vladimir Tarasenko, a move that would likely see them getting a similarly-priced underachiever coming back the other way.  I’ve said before that I think there’s a trade option out there for Ben Chiarot in a similar type of swap and if they wanted to retain money, I suspect they could get a better return than expected.  The only bad contract I think they’ll shed would be Justin Holl; he’s the only true buyout candidate I think they have.

While you didn’t ask about free agent targets, I expect they’ll be in on pretty much every top-four defenseman that actually gets to the open market but that list is getting pretty small as it is.  Up front, I suspect they’ll look at the top center options available but those will probably price themselves out of what Detroit can afford, sending them toward wingers.  For some reason, Nikolaj Ehlers stands out as a target, someone who can add some secondary scoring.  Like Yzerman said in his presser this week, I expect them to get something done with Patrick Kane to keep him around as well.

Draft-wise, they sit 12th right now heading into next week’s lottery.  Assuming they stay there, defenseman Radim Mrtka feels like someone they’d consider.  Roger McQueen could be a candidate to slide given his injuries while Carter Bear could go in that range as well.

tucsontoro1: Lots of chatter about San Jose moving their #1 draft pick if they win the lottery. Seems counter-productive to a rebuild??

It feels like we get this type of chatter more regularly now but a lot of it is just that, chatter.  It’s fun to dream up scenarios about a team trading for the number one selection but the reality is that it doesn’t happen very often.  More recently, the last time it happened was 2003 and that was a trade-down from one to three.  In theory, the Sharks could do that, land an asset of some note, and still get a high-quality prospect.  While their prospect pool has certainly improved, it’s still not the deepest given how bare the cupboards were when GM Mike Grier took over.  In the right scenario, a move like that would be defensible.

I suspect that’s not the context you were asking with though; I imagine you were talking about trading the pick outright.  Generally speaking, that would run counter to a rebuild but it depends on who you were getting in return.  If San Jose could get a high pick from the last couple of drafts that’s established already that fits in with the age group of their young core that’s willing to sign a max-term deal when their current contract is up, it could make some sense.  Having said that, I’m not sure there’s a player like that available which is why a move is unlikely to happen.  And in terms of trading that pick for a more established star with only a few years of control remaining, that wouldn’t make sense for a team like the Sharks that’s still a few years away from contention.

vincent k. mcmahon: Looking at the Blues FA’s this year (Faksa, Suter, MacEachern), do you see them potentially bringing any of the three back or moving on from all three?

Also, is there anyone you see the Blues potentially buying out (Faulk, Leddy, Joseph, etc)?

I think at the right price point, they’d be interested in keeping Radek Faksa and Ryan Suter.  Faksa has been overpaid these last few years as his offense never came around but he’s consistently above-average on faceoffs, has good size, and can kill penalties.  If he took something around half his current price tag of $3.25MM, that might work.  As for Suter, he’s still a serviceable depth defender and accepted something with a base salary of the minimum last summer with some bonuses.  Something with that structure could be appealing again.  Perhaps not on the opening day of free agency but as most of the options come off the board, that’s something they could pivot back to depending on what else happens.

Before looking at the buyout question, let’s look at their cap situation.  As things stand, they have around $6MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, with Joel Hofer needing a new contract as an RFA.  Beyond that, they already have enough players signed to ice a full team.  A two-year bridge deal around the $2.5MM range for Hofer sounds about right so let’s give them $3MM in cap room, assuming Torey Krug is able to return next season.  Otherwise, he’d be LTIR-eligible again, opening up some extra wiggle room.  With that money, they don’t necessarily have to do anything to create more space.

With two years left on his contract, I think there would be a trade market for Justin Faulk this summer.  The UFA crop is weak and considering he’s a right-shot option, there should be teams willing to accept a small premium on the cap hit ($6.5MM) in exchange for a shorter-term agreement.  His full no-trade clause goes away in July so I don’t think a buyout is going to be needed if they want to move him.

I’d put Nick Leddy in the maybe column.  He only has one year left and they can drop the cap hit from $4MM to $2MM with a buyout next season while adding a $1MM charge in 2026-27.  He has struggled since returning from injury so he’s definitely on an above-market rate.  On the other hand, if they waived him and sent him down, he’d carry a $2.85MM cap charge next year with no hit the following year.  Is it worth taking $1MM in dead cap charges in 2026-27 to save $850K next season?  Maybe.

As for Mathieu Joseph, he’s also in the maybe column.  He hasn’t exactly provided much value on his contract ($2.95MM through next season) after being acquired from Ottawa.  A buyout would save $2.2MM next season and add a $1.1MM dead cap charge in in 2026-27 so the same question with Leddy largely applies here as well.  After receiving a third-round pick to take on his contract last summer, I wonder if they could try to make a similar move and clear the full money that way.  With more money in the system and a higher spending floor, I think we’ll see a few more of those moves in the coming weeks.

I’ll give you one other buyout option, Alexandre Texier.  He’ll be 25 so it’s only a one-third cost, not two-thirds.  If management feels it just didn’t work out, they could buy him out and save $1.75MM in space for next season while taking on a $350K dead cap charge in 2026-27.  If they want to open up a roster spot and a bit of room, that might be the easiest route to take.

Schwa: Predictions for NYR this offseason…

– Option on 1st round pick?

– Notable UFA/RFA decisions?

– Can the team retool, or do they need to rebuild? If the latter, will they?

Thanks!

There were a few other questions originally but they’ve either been covered recently or have been answered as Chris Drury will remain as GM while they wasted little time deciding their coaching situation, letting go of Peter Laviolette and bringing in Mike Sullivan as their new bench boss.

As a refresher, the Rangers moved their 2025 first-round pick as part of the J.T. Miller trade, a selection that was flipped to Pittsburgh soon after.  However, the conditions on that pick say that if it falls within the top 13, New York can keep it and move their 2026 pick instead, albeit unprotected.  It currently falls at #11 heading into the lottery so it’s locked into a top-13 position.  My inclination is that Drury assesses that this is a playoff-bound team next season and keeps the pick, thinking that next year’s could land somewhere in the 20s.  It’s not without its risks given that many felt this was a playoff team this year but the hiring of Sullivan suggests they’re all-in on pushing forward with this core group.

In terms of free agents, there isn’t much of note with their UFAs.  The two they have with NHL experience are Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Calvin de Haan and it’s fair to assume neither will return.  K’Andre Miller and William Cuylle are the key RFA’s.  Miller likely winds up with a short-term deal and with New York’s cap situation, they’ll be pushing for a short-term bridge for Cuylle.  Adam Edstrom and Matt Rempe should re-sign for cheap while it wouldn’t shock me if Arthur Kaliyev is non-tendered.  I’m leaning toward guessing that Zachary Jones gets a qualifying offer but his arbitration eligibility and desire to play more could have them going in an opposite direction.

The Sullivan hiring means they’re not interested in rebuilding.  The good news is that this team can retool.  I don’t think they’re as bad as their record was this year.  If they brought this team back exactly as it was with a quality coach like Sullivan behind the bench, I’d probably pick them as a playoff team.  They’re not going to be able to do much given their cap situation but they might not have to either.  Chris Kreider could be a trade option to move to open up some flexibility and change up one top-six piece but I think this roster won’t have too many changes come opening night in October.

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