PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what type of point production could be expected from Connor Bedard this season, which teams could be interested in Calgary’s veterans, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

frozenaquatic: This is a question about expectations, both low and high: Who has a bigger bounce-back season, Matthew Beniers or Trevor Zegras? How do Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli stack up in their sophomore campaigns? And what do we really expect out of Pierre-Luc Dubois for the Caps in terms of production (what’s your prediction for goals and points)?

DigbyGuy: I would add Dylan Cozens to the bounce-back season question.

1) Between Beniers, Zegras, and Cozens, I’d go with Cozens.  The Ducks had a dreadful showing offensively last year and didn’t add anyone of consequence to help their roster.  Yes, there will be some improvement from their young core – including Zegras – but a bounce-back year for him might be staying healthy and getting to 55 points.  I think Beniers can beat his rookie-season numbers although I’m not expecting a huge jump past that.  I’d put him in the 60-65-point range.  Cozens has already gotten there before and I expect the Sabres to be more consistent offensively so I’d slot him a few points ahead of Beniers.

2) I’m concerned about the offensive situation in Columbus.  More specifically, the lack thereof.  The Blue Jackets have a very weak attack as things stand and even if Fantilli plays a big role, a big point total is unlikely.  I could see him around 50-55 points.  Anaheim’s situation, as I noted above, isn’t particularly good either but I’d put theirs ahead.  Add to that Carlsson likely playing on the front line (Fantilli probably starts behind Sean Monahan, their big offseason signing) and I think Carlsson lands around 60-65 points.

3) I think Dubois will primarily line up on the second line which is going to put his playing time pretty close (maybe slightly better) than it was with the Kings last season.  He’s also now on a team that doesn’t have quite as much offensive depth.  That should give Dubois enough runway to be more productive than he was a year ago but I wouldn’t put him at the level he was at with Winnipeg.  I think he’ll wind up somewhere around 22 goals and 53 points.

drew ford: There’s social media banter about Connor McDavid playing out his Oiler contract and signing back home in Toronto. Do you think this is a possibility?

Two years out from McDavid’s free agency, anything is technically a possibility at this point.  If things go entirely off the rails this season, he could very well decide that he wants to see what it’s like to play somewhere else and yes, his hometown team could theoretically be one of those options.  But the odds of that happening have to be quite low.

For starters, Edmonton is widely expected to be a contender this season and just inked Leon Draisaitl to a record-setting contract, declining to match two offer sheets to ensure enough money was available to do so.  This is a team that is squarely focused on winning now.  When you’re in an environment like that and having the type of success he has had, why leave?  If they were embarking on a rebuild, that’s one thing but there’s no indication they’ll be in that situation for the foreseeable future.

The other challenge the Maple Leafs would have is affording him.  Yes, Mitch Marner and John Tavares are on expiring contracts and if they were only replaced (or retained) on one-year deals, they could keep enough flexibility to be able to afford McDavid should he actually hit the open market in 2026.  I don’t see that happening so I’m skeptical they’d be able to afford the $16MM or more it’s probably going to take to sign him.  But again, it’s highly unlikely he makes it that far anyway.  Never say never to a hypothetical free agent situation two years out but let’s just say this is something I don’t expect to happen.

Nha Trang: Time for my annual question: who’s the guy who comes out of nowhere to be a major impact player this season?

Evidently, I’m getting worse at this each season.  The first time this question came up, I had Tage Thompson in his breakout year.  Then I went with Taylor Raddysh for 2022-23 and while he managed 20 goals, that wasn’t the same level of a breakout.  Morgan Geekie was my pick last season and although he had a career year with 39 points in 76 games, that’s not a true breakout.  (I did get a reasonable return on one of my two longshot picks though with Michael Carcone getting a 21-goal campaign after just having six career NHL tallies heading into the year.)

For 2022-23, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  I’ll continue to stick with that despite it making this question a bit more challenging.

My initial thought to this question is Montreal’s Kirby Dach.  He’s coming off yet another injury-riddled campaign but he showed some positive signs when healthy in his first season with the Canadiens.  He also now has an intriguing winger in Patrik Laine.  If the two of them can stay healthy (and that’s a big if on both fronts), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Dach could push for 60 points which would be a new personal best by a pretty big margin.  That’s not quite a Thompson-like leap but it would certainly flip the script on him being an underwhelming top-three pick to an impact player.

Jaysen: I’m not an expert by any means but I can sense that the Flames are about to enter a full-scale rebuild, even though they might not say it. Kadri has been rumored to be available. But that Huberdeau contract is nearly impossible to move. I’d keep Weegar, for now.

What are your top three destinations for both Kadri and Huberdeau, and what would be the best trade return for both players that could benefit the Flames? And for Huberdeau, let’s propose a return where the Flames retain and one where they don’t.

DigbyGuy: I would add Rasmus Andersson to this as well.

I’m going to cover Jonathan Huberdeau first as the answer here is pretty quick.  With him making $10.5MM through 2030-31 and coming off two seasons with a point total in the 50s, there isn’t one viable trade option for him let alone three.  That contract might be the worst in the league.  Could there be a fit with maximum retention?  Possibly but the return wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to justify the $36.75MM in actual money they’d have to pay Huberdeau not to play for them; ownership probably isn’t signing off on that type of move either.  Maybe there would be an option three or four years from now when the term isn’t as bad but right now, that’s not a movable contract.

Nazem Kadri, on the other hand, has a viable trade market should GM Craig Conroy choose to pursue it.  At $7MM for four years, it’s a bit pricey for a second liner but there’s always high demand for a center.  Winnipeg comes to mind as a good fit as they’ve been looking for a consistent second center behind Mark Scheifele for a while.  Minnesota would be another fit although they’d need to wait until next season to do it (or Calgary would really have to pay down the cost) to make it work within their current cap situation.  But they’re another team that hasn’t had a consistent number two option for a while.

For a third team, I’d put Chicago which might seem strange at first glance given the prospect depth they have down the middle.  But those prospects might be a couple more years away and at that point, Kadri becomes a high-end third option, one they can afford since they’ll have so many players and prospects on likely below-market contracts.  But as they look to get through their rebuild, they will need some capable veterans.

As for a hypothetical trade scenario, there are way too many elements to consider here.  Can they retain?  If so, how much?  Can they take money back?  If so, how much?  How full-scale of a rebuild are they going for?  That determines the preferred type of assets to acquire (draft picks, junior-aged prospects, or pieces close to contributing now.)  Each answer to each question would modify the trade proposal and that’s too many variables to get through in a piece like this for three separate teams.  The short answer is that if it’s a full-scale rebuild (and I’m not convinced it is), get the best combination of assets possible regardless of whether they’re near-ready pieces or ones that are five or six years away.  You can always find short-term stopgaps (bridge players as I call them sometimes) to fill out a roster or hold a spot to allow a prospect to develop properly so Conroy shouldn’t restrict himself to looking for specific types of assets.

Onto Andersson now.  If Calgary decides to move him, I imagine Conroy would get a call from about 15 general managers in about 15 minutes.  The contract is more than manageable ($4.55MM for a top-pairing player for only two years) and he’s a right-shot player to boot, the side that’s always in high demand.  The best way to answer this is as follows.  If you’re wondering about teams who might be interested, look at the standings on March 1st.  Pretty much any team within five points of a playoff spot at that time would be calling unless they’re a team already well-stocked on the back end.  Dallas and Nashville come to mind in particular; no, I wasn’t cherry-picking Central Division teams as landing spots on purpose, it just worked out that way.

bottlesup: With Bedard getting a year of experience under his belt and much more veteran support around him, is it possible to think he can hit a point per game this year?

Yeah, I’d say that’s a more than reasonable goal to try to achieve.  He wasn’t that far off the mark last season with 61 points in 68 games.  With the return of Taylor Hall (who missed all of last season) and the additions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, he’s going to have wingers who are much better fits to play on the top line and should be better at finishing some of Bedard’s passes.  If he stays healthy, 90 points is where I’d peg Bedard’s point total at for the upcoming season.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion on deferred contracts, Anaheim’s interest in moving out a pair of long-time veterans, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

User 1773920983: With Johnny Gaudreau passing away, what will happen to CBJ’s salary cap? They will fall below if it is removed.

vh33: I don’t want to be disrespectful, but I was wondering: due to the death of Johnny Gaudreau, what happens with the cap hit for the Blue Jackets and the salary? Will the cap hit be reduced? Or in the books for the remainder of his contract? And will the heirs receive his remaining salary? What are the rules for these tragic occasions?

Gaudreau’s contract comes off the books in full for Columbus which does indeed put them under the Lower Limit of $65MM for the upcoming season.  Per PuckPedia, they’re around $62.3MM with a 22-player roster at the moment so they do have a bit of work to do on that front.

It’s possible that they ask for some sort of waiver from the league to start the season below that amount given the circumstances but I think the NHLPA would need to sign off as well.  Their preference would obviously be that Columbus goes and signs a couple of free agents to make up the difference which is an option.  I expect the Blue Jackets will go the trade route and take on a player or two from teams needing or wanting to clear salary, picking up some draft picks in consideration for doing so.  Given that they’re a team that’s likely to sell at the trade deadline, I could see $67MM being a soft target, giving them a path to stay above the Lower Limit even if they move a player or two during the year.

As for what is and isn’t paid out, let’s start with the contract itself.  To the best of my understanding, the family won’t receive any of the remaining payments.  Assuming the $2MM signing bonus in his contract was already paid, that’s the last direct payment in the deal.

However, the family will receive some money.  Article 23 of the CBA provides some information on the insurance of contracts which is relevant here.  From my interpretation, there should be a $1MM life insurance policy as well as an accidental death policy valued at the base salary for that season which in this case is $7.75MM (it excludes the signing bonus).  There’s also a six-month extension of benefits for the family (added in the 2020 CBA extension) with an option to elect (purchase) continuation of coverage beyond that.

aka.nda: Deferred payments in contracts… how many can be in place, and for how much and what duration? How do they count against the cap if they’re paid out the day the season ends vs. some other time?

There are no restrictions on deferred payments in terms of how many can be in place, for how much, or for how long.

As for the second question, the end of the season still falls within the League Year so the quickest way to answer it is to go right to the CBA – Sec. 50.2(ii)(A):

Player Salary denominated as “Deferred” but payable within the term of the SPC shall be counted in the League Year in which the Player Salary is paid and shall not be treated as Deferred Salary.

That covers the day after the season ends but let’s look at another time.  More specifically, a deferral that is payable outside the term of the contract and payable outside the League Year (let’s say July 1st).  At that point, the value of the deferral is discounted to the present value of that compensation in the year it was earned.  Logically, the further out the payment of the deferred money, the lower the present value and therefore the lower the cap hit.  That’s my attempt at a simple explanation for a concept that isn’t all that simple.  PuckPedia has a nice breakdown with some more details of contract deferrals if you’re interested in reading up on it further.

I’m going to quickly comment on the idea of deferred salary in general having seen a lot of general speculation that the two deals Carolina did could lead to a spike in these types of agreements.  I don’t think that will be the case.  With escrow stabilizing, there’s going to be more effort into front-loading contracts as much as possible, especially for established top players.  They then get more money sooner which is the key objective.

Deferred contracts are more or less the opposite as players have to wait longer to get paid.  Presumably, they’re getting more in the end to make up for the deferral but they have to wait.  That’s how Carolina got around the perceived internal ceiling of Seth Jarvis’ deal being the $7.75MM that Andrei Svechnikov has.  The AAV based on total earnings is higher at $7.9MM but the cap hit is only $7.42MM based on the three deferred payments to the day after the contract officially expires.  It’s a creative solution but while we might see a few more of these deals (to be fair, Carolina’s two weren’t the first of its kind; they’ve happened before albeit rarely), this isn’t going to be the start of a new trend.

Cla23: What does a Cole Perfetti and Lucas Raymond contract look like?

For Perfetti, I think the two sides are going to hone in on a bridge deal.  He only has 75 career points under his belt so I have a hard time believing that the two sides can find a number that they’ll be happy with on a long-term agreement.  Perfetti wouldn’t lock in close to a max term for less than $6MM as he undoubtedly feels he has another level to get to offensively while given his performance so far, I doubt the Jets would go that high.  I expect a two-year term will be the target which should check in around $3MM per season, perhaps backloaded slightly to secure a higher qualifying offer.  That also fits nicely within Winnipeg’s current cap situation, giving them a chance to bank some in-season cap space.

As for Raymond, it looks like a long-term agreement is the goal and GM Steve Yzerman made sure to leave enough cap space to afford one.  His platform season was strong (31 goals, 41 assists) and there’s probably a belief that he can beat those numbers down the road.  I could see Raymond’s camp looking to best Cole Caufield’s contract (eight years, $7.85MM AAV) as he has better numbers now than the Montreal winger did at the time while Detroit is probably hoping to get that into the high-six range which lines up more with the cap percentage on Dylan Larkin’s post-entry-level deal.  I’ll go with seven years at $7.8MM or eight years at $8MM as the end result.

sha44ron! Due to the cap limits, the Rangers were unable to improve their bottom six so do you think that will hurt them this year?

I’ll start with this general thought.  If the bottom six is the biggest issue that a team has heading into the regular season, that’s a pretty good spot to be in.  And that’s where the Rangers are.

I’m not sure I agree that they haven’t been able to improve their bottom six.  As long as Filip Chytil stays healthy (granted, that’s far from a given), that’s a big improvement right there as he’s not passing Mika Zibanejad or Vincent Trocheck on the center depth chart.  If Reilly Smith’s addition pushes Kaapo Kakko onto the third line as well, now you have a third line that should be a capable secondary scoring trio.

I also think there’s room for internal improvement in the bottom six.  Will Cuylle should take a step forward while if they get a chance, Brennan Othmann and Adam Edstrom could contribute.

With New York’s overall talent, they’re in good shape for the season so they can be patient with their bottom six.  If the things I mentioned above happen and it’s a better group than expected, great.  If not, they can try to address it at the trade deadline.  If it’s still a problem going into the playoffs, then I’d be a bit more concerned but for now, I don’t think it will hurt them too much.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some possible new options for head coaches and GMs, Anaheim’s disappointing summer, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column.

Gmm8811: GM’s on the hot seat…Blake, Lamoriello, Yzerman. Coaches on the hot seat…Richardson, Lalonde, Huska.

Who’s the up-and-comers to replace them?

Let’s start with the general managers.  Mathieu Darche has been a finalist a few times now and has been in Tampa Bay’s front office for the last five years while increasing job duties along the way so he should be on that list.  One name that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention that could fit in this range is Paul Krepelka, his age (56) notwithstanding.  He has spent the last four years in Florida’s front office and was a long-time player agent before that.  We’ve seen a few former agents take on GM jobs so he could be a candidate to be the next one to do so.  Another one that isn’t necessarily a younger up-and-comer is Ryan Martin who has been an AGM in the NHL since 2010.  At some point, he might get a chance.  And as for Lou Lamoriello’s potential replacement when the time comes, that might stay in the family with Chris Lamoriello, a long-time executive with both the Islanders and Devils, seeming like a viable candidate with his father perhaps moving into an advisory role at the time.

On the coaching side, I’d first question the placements of Luke Richardson and Ryan Huska on the hot seat.  As long as Chicago fares a little better this season, I think Richardson is safe and with Calgary heading into a rebuild, a coaching change this quickly seems unlikely.

That aside, Jay Leach has been on the radar for a few years now and has interviewed a few times for the top job.  I don’t think it’s going to be too much longer before he gets that opportunity.  Marco Sturm was a finalist in San Jose and while teams will be hesitant when it comes to hiring an international head coach, the fact that Sturm has coached in North America for the last six years helps.  Seth Appert has been working his way up the coaching ladder in various leagues and will get his first NHL action as an assistant this season in Buffalo.  That might be the last box to check before he gets a chance to run an NHL bench in the next year or two.

Jaysen: Vegas bought low on Holtz and bet they could unlock some of his upside. Being a Habs fan, Montreal did have some degree of success with “reclamation” projects. I’m a big fan of Dylan Holloway and Peyton Krebs. Thoughts on how both players would fit into the Habs lineup, and the price to get them? Thanks.

So, as I was going through the questions last weekend, I thought to myself that pushing this question by a week was safe.  I wasn’t expecting Holloway’s situation to have any sort of activity until sometime in September.  Whoops…  With Holloway off the table one way or the other now (there’s a one-year trade moratorium coming from the date of Edmonton’s decision to match the offer sheet from St. Louis or not), let’s focus on Krebs instead.

While I get the idea of trying to add a younger piece as they’ve done the last two years, to be honest, I don’t necessarily see a great fit for Krebs in Montreal, at least in the role he has filled with Buffalo.  They have Christian Dvorak and Jake Evans in the fold on expiring deals this season that should fill the third- and fourth-line spots and while Dvorak probably isn’t being brought back after that, Evans could be extended at the right price.  Alex Newhook is still around and fared well down the middle down the stretch last season while Kirby Dach is back after missing all but four periods of last season; they’re likely going to deploy him down the middle on the second line behind Nick Suzuki.

Meanwhile, Owen Beck might be a prospect that forces his way onto the roster somewhat quickly while Oliver Kapanen is expected to get a look at training camp as well (but has to return to Sweden if he doesn’t make the team).  That’s quite a few bottom-six options and I don’t think anyone is realistically expecting Krebs to play higher than that in the lineup.  Where does he fit in on the depth chart then?  I suppose they could push Dvorak to the wing and keep Krebs at center but Montreal has a lot of pricey bottom-six pieces; adding to that group only complicates things further.

Here’s the other challenge.  Buffalo has no motivation to sell low on Krebs.  They have ample cap space and at 23, he’s young enough to fit in with their core group.  His next contract is going to be a low-cost bridge deal so they can afford to continue to be patient; sometimes, centers take a longer time to develop.  For perspective, I don’t think they’d move him for a second-round pick.  And if I’m Montreal, I’m not sure I’d move one of their first-round selections with the year he just had.  The Sabres’ price tag in a trade is going to be higher than what any other team could justify paying coming off a down season.  With that in mind, I don’t see a trade coming at this point.  Maybe midseason if injuries strike and if he struggles out of the gate again, then perhaps the asking price comes down to a more palatable point.

Schwa: Out of the top UFA names left – where do you see everyone landing? Are we expecting PTOs, waiting for training camp to start to shake out? Anyone heading to Europe?

I’m going to assume you mean ‘top’ as a relative term here as there frankly aren’t any true ‘top’ unrestricted free agents left.  At this point in the game, we’re looking at depth players, many of whom are going to be going the PTO route over the next four weeks.  But a handful might land a guaranteed deal so let’s make some predictions on those.

Kevin Shattenkirk – Edmonton – One way or another, the Oilers are losing a defenseman.  Whether it’s Philip Broberg to St. Louis from the offer sheet or moving out one (or both) of Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak to afford matching the offer sheet.  Either way, they’re going to need a low-cost depth replacement.  Shattenkirk plays the side they’re not as deep at, can still handle a regular third-pairing role, and plays an offensive style that complements the way Edmonton plays.

Kailer Yamamoto – Colorado – The Avs can’t afford much more than minimum-salaried players at this point but while I think Yamamoto could make a bit more going elsewhere, I could see him changing strategies and looking for a spot where he can better showcase himself in a winning environment over chasing top dollar.  It worked for Jonathan Drouin last year and Yamamoto could look to follow that path.

Tyson Barrie – Boston – The Bruins can’t do much until Jeremy Swayman signs but having Barrie be the type of role player that Shattenkirk was for them last season wouldn’t hurt.  There are question marks with Andrew Peeke after a tough season last year while Barrie could anchor the second power play wave behind Charlie McAvoy, lessening the load on Hampus Lindholm a little bit.

Players like Tony DeAngelo and Sammy Blais have been linked to the KHL although deals there haven’t materialized yet.  Probably a couple of others will ultimately determine their best fit for the upcoming season might be playing a big role somewhere overseas over the low-chance PTO route.  I could see some of the veterans (Max Pacioretty, Blake Wheeler, and Kyle Okposo, for example) retiring if they don’t get a guaranteed contract with a team they’re comfortable with going to.  As for most of the rest, they’ll probably have to work their way up from a tryout.

jminn: What the heck is going on in Anaheim? They seem to have failed at their desired offseason plans. Besides having a year under the belts of some decent prospects and a few new assistants, what other positive qualities are there to tout?

After landing a top-six winger (Alex Killorn) and a top-four blueliner (Radko Gudas) in free agency last year, it certainly sounded like the Ducks were going to try to do so again this time around.  And with due respect to Robby Fabbri and Brian Dumoulin (both added via trade), you’re right, they didn’t add those desired pieces.

The best thing they have going for them is their young core.  With Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, and Cutter Gauthier, they have three potentially high-end pieces 20 or younger that are expected to play key roles this season.  They have high hopes for blueliners like Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger, among others, as well.  (And that’s not even getting into a player like Troy Terry, a key veteran in the short and long term.)  Those are a lot of building blocks for the future.  It comes with growing pains and they’re heading for plenty more of them this season but that’s the big positive right now if you’re a Ducks fan.

I’ll also add the fact that they didn’t move Trevor Zegras as a positive.  While I question his long-term fit with the roster being what it projects to be in the near future, his trade value was far from being at its highest.  I expect him to rebound somewhat and boost that value in the process so if you’re looking for something to potentially look forward to for the upcoming season, there’s that as well.

I’ll be curious to see if Anaheim is able to leverage its considerable cap space (more than $21MM per PuckPedia).  While I’m sure there are budgetary elements in play here, I’m not convinced that the roster they have today is the same that they go into the season with; I could see them taking on another short-term veteran.  That won’t raise the ceiling for this group but it probably won’t hurt them either.

bigalval: What do you make of the Kings’ offseason? Can they make the playoffs in a tough conference? I think Rob Blake has done a terrible job as GM, your thoughts on the Kings?

I’m not a big fan of what Los Angeles has done this summer.  I don’t mind the Pierre-Luc Dubois for Darcy Kuemper swap from the standpoint of getting out of a bad contract while upgrading between the pipes.  (In a more defensive environment, I think Kuemper will bounce back pretty well.)  Of course, when assessing Blake as a whole, the other part of that trade (what they gave up to get him) has to be considered and, well, that makes it look a whole lot worse.

As for their other moves, Warren Foegele’s money is about right with how he played last season.  I’m skeptical he has another 40-point season in him but it’s a short-term agreement (three years) at least so that one’s okay.  Joel Edmundson’s four-year deal worth $3.85MM per season, on the other hand, was one of the worst contracts handed out in free agency.  When healthy, he’s a good blueliner.  But he has a long track record of back trouble; he only has one season where he came close to playing every game (and that was in 2020-21 when he played 55 of 56 contests).  That’s a contract that will hurt them in a hurry.  Meanwhile, the Quinton Byfield contract only gained them one more year of club control.  While it kept the cap hit more affordable, I wonder if a true bridge deal might have made more sense since they’re only getting the one extra year at that price.

Meanwhile, I think they can still make the playoffs.  They’re in a division with three teams that are going to be near the bottom of the league in the standings while Seattle is still a bit of a question mark.  If you’re going into a season as a safe bet to be top four in the division, you have a good chance at being a playoff team.  They’re not contenders by any stretch but they’re a Wild Card-caliber team once again.

That last sentence ties in well with my evaluation of Blake.  He has done well building a group that can get to the playoffs.  But getting to them and getting through them are two different things.  And I don’t think he has done well enough in the second part of that.  I don’t see the true upside to make them a contender and they’re way too good to bottom out and rebuild.  They’re pretty close to being a perpetual mid-ranked team.  If the objective is to get two or three home playoff gates, he has done well on that front lately.  But if the goal is to have a group that can go deep in the postseason, I don’t feel Blake has put together a group (or enough future flexibility) to make that happen.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Jeremy Swayman’s situation in Boston, if Torey Krug’s injury will make St. Louis look for another defenseman, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s column.

bottlesup: It looks like Dallas’s roster is set, do you see Jim making possibly another trade some point in the season or any other moves?

The answer to this question is going to depend on what happens with Thomas Harley, their lone remaining restricted free agent.  They have a little over $6.2MM in cap space at the moment, per PuckPedia, but that’s with a 20-player roster.  Assuming they want to carry an extra forward at least (Harley’s eventual contract would give them seven defenders), they’re closer to $5.4MM to play with.

How much of that will Harley take up?  If the two sides work out a long-term agreement that covers his remaining RFA years and buys some extra years of team control, it’s going to be at a number that’s actually higher than their current cap space.  In that scenario, instead of adding to their roster, they’d have to subtract from it to get back into compliance.  From there, they’d probably wind up tight to the cap, limiting their in-season flexibility.

But if it’s a bridge deal, things change.  Using K’Andre Miller and Evan Bouchard as some recent comparables, a two-year bridge for Harley should check in around the $4MM per season mark.  If they did that and carried a 13th forward, they’d be around $1.4MM or so (depending on the exact cost of Harley’s deal and the cost of the 13th forward), giving them some flexibility to hedge against injuries.  I could see them maybe using a bit of that to top up from a minimum-salaried extra forward to more of an impactful one around the $1MM mark which would then put them closer to $1MM in wiggle room.

At that point, the question of any in-season activity would be dependent on injuries and how aggressively they paper Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque to the minors on off days to bank extra cap space.  If there’s enough room left at the deadline, I could see them making a move to shore up their back end as they did with Chris Tanev back in March.

I’ll also mention the possibility of a three-year bridge, one that probably pushes the cost closer to $4.5MM.  At that point, they’d have to fill the 13th forward spot with a minimum-salary contract and hold on to their minimal flexibility after that.  In that case, they could look to a UFA or have a 13th forward come up from AHL Texas; after that, any movement would again be linked to their ability to bank cap space in-season depending on injuries.  Again, I think there’s a move to make on the back end but it’ll be closer to March than October.

FeeltheThunder: There have been some reports and chatter that Tampa should go after Nashville’s young goalie Yaroslav Askarov to backup Andrei Vasilevskiy. Many feel Vasy would be more open to not taking on so many games if he had a backup goalie that he felt comfortable sharing with.  Not that he doesn’t like Johansson or anything but the reality is Johansson is just an average goaltender at best. Furthermore, it wouldn’t hurt if that backup goaltender had the same cultural background either as Vasy.

What would Tampa have to give up to get Askarov from Nashville? One would assume the 2026 1st round pick would be the starting point. I’m sure a potential prospect would be added but I don’t think Tampa would give up Conor Geekie, Isaac Howard, or even Ethan Gauthier in the trade. Maybe they just bundle some draft picks.

First, while there has been chatter about Nashville dealing Askarov for more than a year now, I don’t recall seeing anything credible linking him to Tampa Bay specifically.  While he’d be an upgrade on Jonas Johansson, there’s not a path to prime playing time until Vasilevskiy’s deal ends in 2028.  If Askarov had a chance to pick his landing spot (he wouldn’t, I’m just making the point), I’d have to think the Lightning would be pretty low on his list.  Going and being a multi-year backup or platoon partner isn’t a path to a big-money contract.

As for what the cost would be, you’re really constraining them by taking Geekie, Howard, and Gauthier off the table.  If Nashville isn’t getting a high-end prospect in this trade, what’s their motivation to do it?  A future first-round pick (which might land in the 20s) isn’t exactly the ideal centerpiece of a swap; I have to think they turned down better than that at the last two drafts.  That pick with some lesser picks or lesser prospects is a package that I suspect quite a few teams would easily beat.

The hope is that Askarov is a future franchise goalie.  The cost has to be somewhat commensurate with that; a quantity over quality approach to a trade isn’t it.  I could see Nashville’s preference being a prospect-prospect swap where they’re getting an NHL-ready (or near-ready) impact player (top-six forward or a top-four defenseman) back for the netminder.  I don’t see Tampa Bay being the team to give that to them.

SkidRowe: Two Bruins topics:

1) What’s going on with Swayman? How far apart do you think they are? Could Swayman’s camp be asking for more than the Bruins have remaining under the cap ($8.6m)? What’s he gonna do, sit out?

2) Apparently, the Bruins are counting on middle-six minutes and secondary scoring from a couple of youngsters; Poitras (20 yo, former 2nd-round pick, 15 points in 33 NHL games) and Lysell (21yo, former 1st-round pick, zero NHL games). If either of those guys fail, they can turn to Merkulov (23yo, former college free agent, zero points in four NHL games) or elevate Brazeau (26yo, undrafted junior player, seven points in 19 NHL games) from the 4th line. Is this strategy going to pay off?

1) With no arbitration option this time around (both sides passed on filing), there is no real pressure point on either side for a while yet so this probably will drag out for a while longer.  It’s hard to guess how far they’re apart as part of the issue here I suspect is that they’re still working on deals of varying lengths, meaning the gap will be different for each one.  My guess is that they’re not overly close and until we get closer to training camp where one side might move a little, I don’t expect to see much news on that front.

I don’t see Swayman’s camp asking for more than $8.6MM per season.  His career high in games played in a single NHL season is 44 so as of today, he’s not even truly proven as an undisputed number one.  He’s heading in that direction but hasn’t played enough to get there yet.  I think the end result on a long-term deal starts with a seven, maybe eight times eight at most.  If they wind up on more of a medium-term agreement, the cost probably begins with a six.

2) At this point, what other option do the Bruins have?  They couldn’t afford to make a commitment to a more impactful forward earlier in free agency as they need to get Swayman signed first to see what they have left to spend.  If they went and added a top-six piece, then they’re forcing themselves into probably taking Swayman to arbitration, getting a one-year settlement in the $5MM range, and going through the same thing next year.  The patient approach will limit their options to add short-term depth but should allow them to get their franchise goalie signed.

At some point, the Bruins need to start getting some contributions from their prospect pool.  Matthew Poitras was starting to slow down before his injury but he’s earned a chance to break camp and see if he can hold down a spot.  Fabian Lysell is one of their top prospects and flirted with a point per game in the minors last year so yes, he’s probably worth a look.  Frankly, those two have more pure upside than what’s left in free agency and they don’t have a lot of trade chips to use.  Having said that, I do see Boston being active on the PTO front to see if they can get a decent veteran or two in as a hedge against the youngsters struggling or Swayman signing a shorter-term deal (opening up more cap flexibility).

vincent k. mcmahon: If Krug’s playing career is hypothetically over (although it’s still up in the air on if he can or can’t resume playing) does this put pressure on the Blues of adding another d-man outside of the additions of Suter and Joseph?

It depends on what their intentions are for this season.  If they think they’re a playoff team, then yes, they need to go add another blueliner (although there’s not much left on the open market).  But looking at the Central Division and St. Louis’ roster in general, I don’t see the Blues being a playoff team this season.

If that’s the case, my thought is that they’d be better off not filling that spot, instead using it to learn more about their younger options.  They have four rearguards either 24 or 25, Matthew Kessel, Scott Perunovich, Tyler Tucker, and the recently-signed Pierre-Olivier Joseph.  How many of those are future building blocks?  At some point, they need to figure that out.  Using this season to do just that might be the better play in the long run.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include possible contract comparables for Flyers winger Travis Konecny, Chicago’s active offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

GBear: The assumption is that Stamkos will play on the wing in Nashville because he’s played in that position recently with Tampa, but is there any good reason why he couldn’t switch back to center, which is where the need is on the 2nd line?

It all comes down to trying to deploy Stamkos best.  He has split his time between the wing and center in recent years and as he ages, it stands to reason that they’re going to want him on the wing where there are fewer responsibilities while being a triggerman is better as a winger than a center.  Bringing in a high-priced player and then not putting him in the best situation to succeed is a little counterproductive.

Having said that, I don’t see why Nashville couldn’t use him down the middle next season; I think he can handle that (it’s the later years I’m more skeptical about).  He’s pretty effective on the draw and if it pushes Thomas Novak onto the third line to be more of a secondary scorer (the role that’s best for him), that would be ideal.

But it’s a short-term solution.  Stamkos should be a winger before too long while Novak and Cody Glass (a potential trade candidate in the coming weeks given their cap situation) aren’t great fits in that second center role.  I don’t think Juuso Parssinen will get to that level and their best center prospects aren’t on the verge of being NHL-ready either.  GM Barry Trotz filled a lot of holes this summer but a better fit at the 2C position is something that should be on next year’s shopping list.

wiyasm: Will the Flyers bring in a true top center to pair with Michkov? Are they putting their trust in either Couts or Frost? Or are they going to make a trade to find someone?

I like Morgan Frost as a secondary option but I’d be surprised if he becomes a bona fide number one option.  While they used a lottery pick on Jett Luchanko taking him 13th overall, I’m not sure he’s a top liner down the road either.  And while they’re paying Sean Couturier like a top-liner, he’s not that type of player anymore.  One day, they’re going to have to do something about that.

But one day is not today.  The Flyers are still very much in the building phase of their rebuild; they’re not expecting to go and push for a playoff spot next season.  If they were, we’d see them using their LTIR pool, which should surpass the $10MM mark.  Accordingly, there’s no immediate need to go find a top center to play with Matvei Michkov.

For next season, I think they’re going to have him playing with Couturier and Frost at times.  Couturier would be able to take some of the defensive pressure off of him while still allowing them to evaluate Michkov against top opposition.  Assuming that goes good and bad (the transition to a key role is rarely seamless), there should be times when Michkov is dropped to play with Frost to allow him to face some lesser checking and try to get more balance on the top two lines.  What they have now is good enough for that type of evaluation.

Eventually, I think Philadelphia will make some sort of move to bring in an impactful center.  A trade is going to be hard as those types of players rarely become available.  But if one becomes available in free agency, they have enough flexibility to make a very competitive offer.  I think that’s their Plan A with Plan B signing a second-line center and hoping that player has chemistry with Michkov.

Emoney123: As Travis Konecny enters the final year of his contract, what are the comparable contracts if the Flyers try to re-sign him or what might be a reasonable return if a trade is a better option for the rebuild?

How important is Developmental Camp and scrimmages?

Early indications are that Konecny’s camp is hoping for a double-digit AAV, with the expectation that there should be another fair-sized jump in the salary cap for 2025-26 when his new deal kicks in.  I think the Flyers would prefer that it falls within the $8MM range.  As is often the case with these things, I suspect an eventual agreement would fall around the middle, probably starting with a nine.

For recent comparables, the best ones I could find were centers.  I went looking for players who were UFAs at the expiration of their current contracts (which took Timo Meier, an oft-cited comparable, off the table) but still in their late 20s.  For simplicity, let’s assume a $4MM jump in the cap for 2025-26, bringing it to $92MM so we can come up with potential amounts based on cap hit percentage (CH%).

Bo Horvat (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.69
Platform year: 70 points
CH%: 10.18%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.3656MM

Mathew Barzal (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.88
Platform year: 51 points (in 58 games due to injury)
CH%: 10.96%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $10.0832MM

Dylan Larkin (DET), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.78
Platform year: 79 points
CH%: 10.42%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.5864MM

Konecny, meanwhile, has a career PPG of 0.71 and is coming off a platform year of 61 points but in 60 games.  That tends to push me more towards Larkin’s comparable so an AAV around $9.5MM seems like a reasonable price tag.

I think their best chance to trade him has already gone out the window.  With most teams having built their rosters for next season, there probably isn’t a good landing spot for him now.  So then you’re probably looking at an in-season move and as we all know, top-end rentals with salary retention tend to yield a first-round pick, a quality prospect, and sometimes another lesser piece.  If Konecny has another point per game season heading into the trade deadline sometime in March, they might be able to do a bit better than that depending what’s on the market.

As for development camps and scrimmages, as a fan, I don’t put much stock into them.  It’s more for teams to establish or update baselines for physical testing and get a feel for how their summer training is progressing with a chance to make some tweaks if needed.  Personally, rookie camp showings are more important as that runs into training camp; a good showing there could give them a leg up heading into the preseason.  Meanwhile, a June or July summer camp isn’t necessarily indicative of what’s to come for rookie camp.

bottlesup: If the Stars by our choice or not start casting off veterans, do we still have enough young talent to stay competitive for the Cup?

Before getting to the multi-year element of this question, Dallas did a pretty good job of not casting off veterans this summer.  Yes, they lost Chris Tanev but that was widely expected given their cap situation.  Their back end remains a bit shaky but on the whole, I think they’re one of the true Cup contenders heading into the upcoming season.

I’m not sure there’s going to be a big casting off of veterans next summer.  They have over $23MM in expiring UFA contracts in 2025, giving them ample savings to keep the core players they want (Jake Oettinger and Wyatt Johnston, for example, are RFAs needing new deals) and some of the existing veterans while having enough left to replace some others while giving players like Mavrik Bourque a full-time look if he isn’t in that role next season already.  They’ll be alright for that summer.

In 2026, they don’t have quite as much coming off the books ($11.5MM in UFA contracts for three players) but that plus another expected cap increase should be enough for a new deal for RFA Jason Robertson while again allowing them to retain or replace some of the veterans at least.  And then the following summer, Tyler Seguin is off the books, opening up nearly $10MM alone in extra flexibility.

Long story short, I don’t think there’s a big veteran exodus coming in Dallas because of how their expiring contracts are largely staggered.  That, coupled with a decent prospect pool, should be enough to keep them as a legitimate threat for a while yet.

Unclemike1526: I thought Kyle Davidson did a great job in Free Agency even if most of the so-called ”Hockey Experts” don’t seem to agree with me. That is up until the T.J. Brodie signing. One I didn’t understand the signing because he wasn’t very good last year and two, I didn’t get the two years. Was there that big a market for him that they had to add a second year to get him? I mean the money isn’t a problem because the Hawks have tons of it but it just seemed a curious signing to me. And what did you think of the Hawks Draft and FA overall? Thoughts? Thanks as always.

The success or lack thereof in Chicago’s offseason is contingent on whether you agree with the direction they took that will see several of their younger players sent to the minors.  If you’re of the mindset that you want your top youngsters getting big minutes in the NHL, you’re not going to like what they’ve done.  But if you like the idea of having fewer youngsters up but playing with a better group while the rest are playing big minutes in what should be a winning environment in AHL Rockford, you’re going to like what they did.  I’m in the latter camp.

While it might seem like they went a bit overboard, they have several expiring contracts up front while Alec Martinez is on a one-year pact.  They can easily move some of their younger players into the NHL for 2025-26 where they’ll be a bit more ready for the challenge.  So I was a fan of the strategy they took although another cap-clearinghouse move wouldn’t have hurt had one been available.

As for Brodie, the second year doesn’t shock me.  As part of our planning for the Top 50 UFA list we do each year, we include a contract projection.  Mine was two years at $3.5MM per season so two at $3.75MM is close enough.  (Having said that, I didn’t have Chicago on my shortlist of landing spots.)  Did he struggle in Toronto?  Yes.  But he was playing nearly 22 minutes a night.  That context gets missed a lot.  So he’s not a top-pairing player anymore.  That’s not a big deal.  Chicago isn’t paying him to be a top-pairing player, they’re paying him to be an 18-20-minute piece, one who can play on both sides of the ice.  I think there was enough demand for that type of player that someone was giving him the second year.

Draft-wise, I was fine with Artyom Levshunov with the second pick.  Ivan Demidov would have been my pick but I understand the value of a high-end right-shot defenseman; those are hard to come by.  Given their young center depth, I was a bit surprised with the Sacha Boisvert pick when Cole Eiserman was still on the board but value-wise, he was ranked in that range so it’s not a bad pick.  I didn’t have Marek Vanacker as a late first-round pick but once you get to that point, there’s not much of a difference between a late first and an early second so I won’t quibble much there.  Out of their other picks, John Mustard and A.J. Spellacy were good value for where they were taken.  If I had to quibble, I’d have liked to have seen a second defender come before their final pick but otherwise, I think they did fine.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s left to look forward to this summer after a wild start to free agency, Detroit’s surprisingly quiet offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

DirtbagBlues: What are the odds Vegas trades from their blue line depth for a top-six winger? Who could they target?

This is largely a toss-up question for me.  If the Golden Knights do that, they’re weakening their back end as it’s not the depth players like Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud who are going to bring back a legitimate top-six forward.  If they don’t, their forward group isn’t going to look anywhere near as strong as it did just last season.  There’s no right answer here; it comes down to which area do they think could be easier to address in-season.  For me, that’s the forward group so I’d put the odds at 40%.

For the first part of the season, I suspect Vegas will want to see what they have.  Can Alexander Holtz find a new gear with a new team and a new system?  Can Victor Olofsson lock down a regular spot?  I could see Nicolas Roy getting a chance to play on the wing in the top six as well with Brett Howden anchoring the fourth line.  Maybe William Karlsson gets a shot on the wing with Roy centring the third line.  Brendan Brisson could get a chance.  If they hit with one of those, they’re in much better shape.  They don’t have that many options defensively which is why I think they lean this way.

Now, you asked who they could target if they moved a defenseman out so I’ll play along.  Personally, I feel like they’re a dark horse for Martin Necas.  If they’re going after a legitimate piece, I think it costs them Shea Theodore.  They have enough LTIR space remaining using Robin Lehner’s expected placement on there to cover the gap between Theodore’s $5.2MM and what Necas’ next deal should cost.  It probably takes both players agreeing to new deals before a trade is finalized but that could be an interesting one.

Failing that, Nikolaj Ehlers feels like another target although that could be more of a rental-for-rental type of swap.  Patrik Laine is in play but I don’t see Columbus eating half the contract and without that, he’s probably too hard to fit in.  There aren’t many viable options though, not with a lot of teams likely done their heavy lifting already.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Hayton for Liljegren and a 5th, who says no?

It’s an interesting idea, two players who their current teams have been patient with but haven’t quite been able to make the consistent impact that their draft slots would suggest.  For a deal like this, the late-round draft pick is largely meaningless; generally speaking, a team isn’t going to part with what they perceive is a slightly better player because they’re getting a fifth-round pick back.  For all intents and purposes, the teams would be evaluating this as a one-for-one idea.

For Toronto, getting Barrett Hayton would give them some extra center depth, giving them the chance to shift Max Domi to the wing or perhaps Hayton himself.  They’d have some desirable flexibility at a minimum.  Perhaps more importantly, they’d have a bit more insurance down the middle with John Tavares a year away from UFA eligibility.  While their right-shot defensive depth would be thinned out more – especially with Jani Hakanpaa’s deal still not yet registered amid speculation about concern over his knee injury – I think the good outweighs the bad, including $350K in cap savings.  I think they say yes.

I’m less sure that Utah would, however.  They have Sean Durzi and newly-acquired John Marino in their top two spots on the right side of their back end.  Now, they’re parting with Hayton to upgrade their third pairing.  I think they can accomplish that objective without necessarily moving Hayton to do that, especially with nearly $10MM in cap room to work with still, per PuckPedia.  I suspect they’d rather explore alternate ways to fill out their third pairing or defensive depth, ones that wouldn’t see them parting with a roster forward in the process.  Value-wise, it’s pretty good but I think Utah says no here.

Schwa: With most of the UFAs signed already, is this going to be a very boring offseason? Or do you foresee any big trades or otherwise coming between now and training camp?

We’re at the point of the offseason where things are going to get really slow.  Yes, it’ll probably come in on the boring side most days but there are some things worth keeping an eye on.

On the trade front, what happens with Necas, Laine, Ehlers, and Trevor Zegras, among others?  Those are all notable moves that could happen.  I feel like Detroit (more on them shortly) has something coming.  Montreal is still believed to be sniffing around a move up front.  While Winnipeg could be moving Ehlers, it feels like they need to add up front as well.  With no truly prominent free agents remaining, there’s no real domino that needs to fall for any of these moves to happen (Laine exiting the Player Assistance Program feels like the first possible one to get things going) so these may take a while.

I’m also intrigued about some of the extension-eligible players.  What happens with Leon Draisaitl and the GM-less Oilers, especially with an implied desire to not negotiate in-season?  Does Sidney Crosby get his deal done?  Mikko Rantanen, Carter Verhaeghe, and Mitch Marner are all eligible as well.  It’s doubtful all of these players put pen to paper on new deals by training camp but we could see a few which could make things interesting.

Unclemike1526: Everybody is trying to make a big deal about Nick Foligno talking to Tyler Bertuzzi on the phone and calling it tampering. Since they’re from the same town and seem to be friends so what? I mean players talk to each other. It’s been going on in Basketball for years and nobody bats an eye. Isn’t there some sort of “legal communication” period before free agency anyway? Bertuzzi wasn’t going back where he was because of the cap so what is the real story?

Let me answer these out of order.  There is no longer a pre-free agency communication period.  Officially, no contact of any kind is to be had with pending free agents until July 1st at 11 AM CT.  I’m not sure a single team even came close to abiding to that based on what happened on July 1st but that’s what the NHL would have us believe.  (As an aside, the penalties the NBA put in for tampering the last couple of years really slowed down the start of the market in that league compared to the free-for-all it was in the past or at least slowed down the leaks of pre-arranged deals once the window opened up on June 30th.)

That Foligno talked to Bertuzzi isn’t a point of concern on its own.  Players can unofficially try to recruit potential free agents by talking about all of the good things about the market, schools for their kids, how nice it is to play for a certain coach, etc.  All of that is fine.  Speak in general terms and there’s no issue.

But Bertuzzi’s admission that Chicago wasn’t on his radar until Foligno told him Chicago was interested isn’t speaking in general terms.  As soon as Foligno allegedly told Bertuzzi before the market opened up that the Blackhawks had interest, he was relaying a message from management indicating interest to a prospective free agent before legal communication could begin.  That is indeed tampering.

Think of it this way.  If Foligno told Bertuzzi that he should come to Chicago, it’s a good place to play and there’s lots you’ll like, that’s fine.  If he said it’s a good place to play, there’s lots you’ll like, and they’re putting together a big offer for you, that’s a problem.  That’s the difference.

Having said that, there were what, 70 of these contracts that were pretty much done before the market opened up?  Toronto had some of those as well so it’s not as if they can cry foul on Bertuzzi knowing they somehow had several contracts finalized mere minutes into free agency.  They’re not going to make a fuss about it but if Bertuzzi’s account is truthful, there’s at least a part of it that would qualify as tampering.

tigers22 2: Could the Red Wings have had a worse offseason and the worst most confusing trade to start a year? Why do we have 20 goalies?

It can always be worse.  A couple of players go and get long-term injuries while training that costs them considerable time during the regular season, a core piece could ask for a trade, stuff like that.  But yes, their offseason so far qualifies as extremely underwhelming.

The Jake Walman trade was surprising on a few fronts.  The first is that they opted to get rid of him in the first place over someone like Justin Holl who could barely crack the lineup.  If you’re going to part with a fairly high draft pick to move off a contract, shouldn’t it have been him who moved?  The second is that it took incentivization to move him in the first place; I thought he had some standalone value.  And the third is that the move was made before the corresponding swap was in place.

This is pure speculation on my end but I think this was part of the Jacob Trouba speculated swap, Detroit needed to clear a spot for him and offset some of the money and the Rangers didn’t want to take him back as they wanted the cap space.  Yzerman pulled the trigger early, expecting that deal to get done or to use that money elsewhere.  Unless you’re counting that money as going to Vladimir Tarasenko (a nice add for them, by the way, to replace Robby Fabbri), that didn’t happen.

If there’s a small silver lining here (and I mean small), it’s that they have enough cap space left to offer long-term deals to Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.  This time a month ago, I didn’t think they could do both; I expected a long-term agreement for Seider and a bridge for Raymond.  If they both get long-term deals and continue to progress, that could be beneficial down the road.  Like I said, that’s a very small silver lining.

As for the seven goaltenders they have under contract, it is a lot.  I think they’ve decided to carry three at the NHL level again (Cam Talbot, Alex Lyon, and Ville Husso).  Jack Campbell is the veteran to work with Sebastian Cossa at AHL Grand Rapids.  Carter Gylander starts at the ECHL level where he can get a number one workload.  That’s six and I can make sense of that.  The seventh is Gage Alexander and I’m not sure he was necessarily targeted by Detroit.  I think he was simply the contract they had to take back in the Fabbri swap with the Ducks getting close to the contract limit.  He’s probably ECHL-bound as well but it wouldn’t shock me if he was flipped for a skater down the road.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the goaltending market, questions about Colorado’s upcoming offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our previous two mailbag columns.

@3rdWorldGhost: Where do these goalies end up? – Markstrom, Saros, Gibson, Korpisalo, Nedeljkovic, Samsonov, Ullmark, and what other goalies do you see moving?

What UFAs end up in Chicago?
What’s your top 10 mock draft?
Do the Panthers blow it up if they win?

There’s a lot to dig into here so these will be pretty quick answers.  We now know that Jacob Markstrom will be with New Jersey and Alex Nedeljkovic is staying in Pittsburgh.  We also now know Joonas Korpisalo and Linus Ullmark have traded places. As for the other goalies, I’m leaning toward Juuse Saros staying in Nashville while John Gibson landing in Toronto is something I’ve had kicking around for a bit, assuming they’re not on his no-trade list and Anaheim holds back some salary.  My original landing spot for Ilya Samsonov went out the window with the goalie movement this week so let’s go with him landing in Chicago.  There are other goalies who will move, largely of the backup variety, headlined by Laurent Brossoit and Alex Stalock.  Guessing where they’ll land on that particular carousel is nothing short of a dart throw, however.

Looking back at my picks for our upcoming UFA rankings (which will require some adjustments for that goalie movement), I had them picked for Jake Guentzel, Alexander Wennberg, Daniel Sprong, and Matt Grzelcyk plus Samsonov now.  Note that we make picks independently of each other knowing that one signing often blocks others on that team so don’t interpret that as me picking all of them, they’re all individual one-off predictions.  (Keep this in mind when the full predictions come out in the coming days.)

Guentzel is the headliner while the others I picked as short-term bridge players to give their prospects some time to develop.  I don’t think they’ll land all of those players but if they got Guentzel plus a floor-raising veteran or two, that wouldn’t be a bad trip through free agency.  I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s some activity on the trade front as well where they take on a short-term contract as they’ve done lately.

As for a mock draft, here are my predictions as things currently stand:

1) SJ – F Macklin Celebrini
2) CHI – D Artyom Levshunov
3) ANA – D Anton Silayev
4) CBJ – F Ivan Demidov
5) MTL – F Cayden Lindstrom
6) UTA – D Zeev Buium
7) OTT – F Bennett Sennecke
8) SEA – D Sam Dickinson
9) CGY – D Carter Yakemchuk
10) NJ – F Tij Iginla

Meanwhile, we released our Round One Mock Draft earlier today so be sure to check that out if you haven’t already done so.

I don’t see a full-scale blow-up coming from Florida.  Obviously, they’re not going to be able to afford to keep all of their pending free agents so they will probably take a small step back from that.  But even if that happens, they should still be viewed as a contender.  If you have a shot at contending, you probably won’t be blowing things up.  Besides, they don’t have control of their next two first-round picks so if they were going to take a step back, they wouldn’t even be able to benefit from it in the form of adding high-end prospects.  It’s full steam ahead for them as a result.

Emoney123: How would you rate the Flyers’ rebuild? Besides the hype of Michkov, how soon might Gendron, Bonk, Barkey, Tuomaala, Rizzo, and McDonald play in the NHL? How would you rate the farm system overall? Thanks!

I think they’re off to a good start to their rebuild but there is still some work to be done.  If it’s a larger-scale teardown which I think is what they were aiming for at least, they don’t have enough pieces yet.  I’m answering out of order but I think this is a mid-pack system at the moment.  If you’re planning to exit a rebuild, you don’t want a mid-pack system to start from; obviously, you want to be at least somewhere in the top ten.

Of the players you listed, the only ones that might be close to seeing NHL action is Massimo Rizzo.  A good showing to start next season with Lehigh Valley would get him on the recall radar.  Samu Tuomaala could also get into that mix as well.  I’m not convinced Alexis Gendron will be an NHL regular; I need to see some sustained pro success to show that he’s not just a high-end junior scorer.  Denver Barkey has another year of major junior left and, like Gendron, will probably need time to adjust in the minors so he’s not on the short-term horizon either.

On the back end, I like Oliver Bonk as an all-around dependable piece.  He may not be flashy but he will be effective.  But he has another OHL year left and probably some time in the minors after that; many teams don’t bring blueliners straight to the NHL from junior.  As for Hunter McDonald, I feel like he’s more of an organizational filler prospect than someone they should be counting on for meaningful NHL contributions.  He can certainly change that assessment with a good showing for a couple of years in the minors but at a minimum, he’s probably not a short-term option.

Philadelphia needs more high-end prospects and frankly, more depth before emerging from this rebuild.  They’re off to a good start but that’s all it is, a start.

@iwtfwc: How do things play out for the @Avalanche this offseason?

– Landeskog? (I’m not confident)
– Nichushkin? (Seems they’re stuck unless he fails Stage 3)
– Drouin contact?
– Mittelstadt contract?
– Roster fill out?
– Chances of adding Nedeljkovic?

I’m not overly confident either that Gabriel Landeskog will be able to have any sort of successful extended comeback.  However, I do think he’s going to give it an honest try and will start the season with the Avs.  That will limit them this summer but if he shuts it down midseason, they’ll have plenty of in-year flexibility.  I agree on Valeri Nichushkin, their hands are tied right now.  He needs to get through the third stage of the program and then they can assess things from there.  But they basically have to reserve space to activate him when he’s cleared.

If Jonathan Drouin comes back, it might be after free agency starts.  I don’t think the Avalanche are willing to get to his number at this point, barring a cap-clearing move needing to be made first.  If they were ready and able to make a deal, it’d be done already.  But if Drouin’s market isn’t the strongest (and with how things went in Montreal, it might not be as robust as his camp hopes), I could see them circling back.  I had him at three years at $4.375MM per season in our free agent predictions and they might be able to afford that.

I talked a lot about Casey Mittelstadt in Colorado’s offseason checklist the other day so I won’t get into that in much detail again here.  I can’t see them affording a long-term deal so something in the four-to-six-year range around $5.5MM or so is where I see that falling.  In terms of filling out their roster, that was also a topic in their checklist.  It’s going to be a bunch of minimum-salary signings or close to it.  Your guess is as good as mine as to which players will accept it a few hours into free agency.

I don’t see Colorado adding another goalie for the big club this summer (obviously not Nedeljkovic now).  Justus Annunen did quite well in limited duty last year and has earned a longer look behind Alexandar Georgiev.  Perhaps more importantly, he’s slotted in at less than $840K for the next two years so it’s his spot to lose.  I do expect a signing for the Eagles, however.

RipperMagoo: Are the Devils better or worse after?

Sign Anthony Stolarz: three years, $8.25MM @ AAV $2.75MMl
Sign Nikita Zadorov: five years, $30MM @ AAV $6MM
Sign Dakota Joshua: three years, $9MM @ AAV $3MM
Trade Holtz and Bahl to SEA for Adam Larsson
Draft Cole Eiserman @ 10th

Before even looking at the options, the answer is yes.  Are the Devils better…yes.  If they did nothing, they’d be better than they were in 2023-24 as long as they don’t get slammed by injuries again.  We know they’ve addressed the goalie situation so let’s skip that one but here are some thoughts on the others.

Zadorov: I don’t agree with him being a $6MM player but it feels like someone’s going to give it to him.  Here’s the thing, how much do they want to spend on the back end?  They’re at nearly $20MM now which is fine but Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes are a year away from getting a lot more expensive.  If they get big second contracts and you add Zadorov, now we’re talking $30MM-plus and not by a little bit.  That might be too much spending on the blueline.  If they go for a defenseman this summer, I think it’ll be someone on a short-term contract and it might be by trade over free agency.

Larsson: I’m going out of order here but the two are related.  At least this is a short-term contract which better fits their salary structure but giving up Alexander Holtz and let’s say another young roster player (since Kevin Bahl is gone now) for a one-year rental to fill a fourth defenseman role seems steep.  And if you’re acquiring him with the idea of extending him, now you have three right-shot blueliners making at least $4.4MM for 2025-26 with Nemec still to sign.  Again, this feels like too much money on the back end.

Joshua: I think they’d happily take him at that price tag but I have a hunch he’s getting a bit more than that and possibly another year.  Think four years, $14MM in total.

Eiserman: With how his stock has slipped, I’m not sure he’d be their choice at 10 but it wouldn’t be a bad one.  Especially if Holtz isn’t in the long-term plans, another scoring winger isn’t a bad thing to have.

New Jersey has enough money to try to take a big swing this summer.  I think they’ll try to land a big fish up front and then add a veteran blueliner or two on short-term deals, giving them some shorter-term stability while leaving spots and salary slots for Nemec and Hughes to take on bigger roles a year later.

DevilShark: Which team that made the playoffs this year is in for the biggest hurt over the next 10 years when you look at a combo of current roster, prospect pool, and draft pick stock?

I’ll pick the Islanders here.  In an effort to hang around the playoff picture every year, they haven’t made many moves to add to their pick and prospect cupboards and unfortunately for them, they haven’t had much to show for it aside from their run in 2021.

If you look at their current roster, they’re a mid-pack team at best on paper.  They don’t have enough cap space to go after an impact player or two that could give them the boost they need.  As it is, they might have to buy someone out or pay an asset to get out of an undesirable contract for the second year in a row.  That’s not good.

Prospect-wise, they have one of the weakest systems in the NHL.  That’s a by-product of moving first-round picks (their last one was back in 2019, used on Simon Holmstrom) and some of their better prospects for win-now options.  Granted, moving some of those pieces helped them land Bo Horvat on a contract GM Lou Lamoriello wasn’t a fan of which isn’t nothing but sacrificing the future for the present will eventually catch up with teams.  Meanwhile, they don’t have their own first three picks in the upcoming draft (although they do have some selections from other teams at least).

I don’t see a path for them to drastically improve, nor do I see one that sees them bottom out.  The floor of their team is good but the ceiling isn’t much better.  At some point, they’re going to have to take some steps back to move more steps forward but I don’t see Lamoriello pivoting to that approach anytime soon.

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