PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include possible contract comparables for Flyers winger Travis Konecny, Chicago’s active offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

GBear: The assumption is that Stamkos will play on the wing in Nashville because he’s played in that position recently with Tampa, but is there any good reason why he couldn’t switch back to center, which is where the need is on the 2nd line?

It all comes down to trying to deploy Stamkos best.  He has split his time between the wing and center in recent years and as he ages, it stands to reason that they’re going to want him on the wing where there are fewer responsibilities while being a triggerman is better as a winger than a center.  Bringing in a high-priced player and then not putting him in the best situation to succeed is a little counterproductive.

Having said that, I don’t see why Nashville couldn’t use him down the middle next season; I think he can handle that (it’s the later years I’m more skeptical about).  He’s pretty effective on the draw and if it pushes Thomas Novak onto the third line to be more of a secondary scorer (the role that’s best for him), that would be ideal.

But it’s a short-term solution.  Stamkos should be a winger before too long while Novak and Cody Glass (a potential trade candidate in the coming weeks given their cap situation) aren’t great fits in that second center role.  I don’t think Juuso Parssinen will get to that level and their best center prospects aren’t on the verge of being NHL-ready either.  GM Barry Trotz filled a lot of holes this summer but a better fit at the 2C position is something that should be on next year’s shopping list.

wiyasm: Will the Flyers bring in a true top center to pair with Michkov? Are they putting their trust in either Couts or Frost? Or are they going to make a trade to find someone?

I like Morgan Frost as a secondary option but I’d be surprised if he becomes a bona fide number one option.  While they used a lottery pick on Jett Luchanko taking him 13th overall, I’m not sure he’s a top liner down the road either.  And while they’re paying Sean Couturier like a top-liner, he’s not that type of player anymore.  One day, they’re going to have to do something about that.

But one day is not today.  The Flyers are still very much in the building phase of their rebuild; they’re not expecting to go and push for a playoff spot next season.  If they were, we’d see them using their LTIR pool, which should surpass the $10MM mark.  Accordingly, there’s no immediate need to go find a top center to play with Matvei Michkov.

For next season, I think they’re going to have him playing with Couturier and Frost at times.  Couturier would be able to take some of the defensive pressure off of him while still allowing them to evaluate Michkov against top opposition.  Assuming that goes good and bad (the transition to a key role is rarely seamless), there should be times when Michkov is dropped to play with Frost to allow him to face some lesser checking and try to get more balance on the top two lines.  What they have now is good enough for that type of evaluation.

Eventually, I think Philadelphia will make some sort of move to bring in an impactful center.  A trade is going to be hard as those types of players rarely become available.  But if one becomes available in free agency, they have enough flexibility to make a very competitive offer.  I think that’s their Plan A with Plan B signing a second-line center and hoping that player has chemistry with Michkov.

Emoney123: As Travis Konecny enters the final year of his contract, what are the comparable contracts if the Flyers try to re-sign him or what might be a reasonable return if a trade is a better option for the rebuild?

How important is Developmental Camp and scrimmages?

Early indications are that Konecny’s camp is hoping for a double-digit AAV, with the expectation that there should be another fair-sized jump in the salary cap for 2025-26 when his new deal kicks in.  I think the Flyers would prefer that it falls within the $8MM range.  As is often the case with these things, I suspect an eventual agreement would fall around the middle, probably starting with a nine.

For recent comparables, the best ones I could find were centers.  I went looking for players who were UFAs at the expiration of their current contracts (which took Timo Meier, an oft-cited comparable, off the table) but still in their late 20s.  For simplicity, let’s assume a $4MM jump in the cap for 2025-26, bringing it to $92MM so we can come up with potential amounts based on cap hit percentage (CH%).

Bo Horvat (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.69
Platform year: 70 points
CH%: 10.18%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.3656MM

Mathew Barzal (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.88
Platform year: 51 points (in 58 games due to injury)
CH%: 10.96%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $10.0832MM

Dylan Larkin (DET), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.78
Platform year: 79 points
CH%: 10.42%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.5864MM

Konecny, meanwhile, has a career PPG of 0.71 and is coming off a platform year of 61 points but in 60 games.  That tends to push me more towards Larkin’s comparable so an AAV around $9.5MM seems like a reasonable price tag.

I think their best chance to trade him has already gone out the window.  With most teams having built their rosters for next season, there probably isn’t a good landing spot for him now.  So then you’re probably looking at an in-season move and as we all know, top-end rentals with salary retention tend to yield a first-round pick, a quality prospect, and sometimes another lesser piece.  If Konecny has another point per game season heading into the trade deadline sometime in March, they might be able to do a bit better than that depending what’s on the market.

As for development camps and scrimmages, as a fan, I don’t put much stock into them.  It’s more for teams to establish or update baselines for physical testing and get a feel for how their summer training is progressing with a chance to make some tweaks if needed.  Personally, rookie camp showings are more important as that runs into training camp; a good showing there could give them a leg up heading into the preseason.  Meanwhile, a June or July summer camp isn’t necessarily indicative of what’s to come for rookie camp.

bottlesup: If the Stars by our choice or not start casting off veterans, do we still have enough young talent to stay competitive for the Cup?

Before getting to the multi-year element of this question, Dallas did a pretty good job of not casting off veterans this summer.  Yes, they lost Chris Tanev but that was widely expected given their cap situation.  Their back end remains a bit shaky but on the whole, I think they’re one of the true Cup contenders heading into the upcoming season.

I’m not sure there’s going to be a big casting off of veterans next summer.  They have over $23MM in expiring UFA contracts in 2025, giving them ample savings to keep the core players they want (Jake Oettinger and Wyatt Johnston, for example, are RFAs needing new deals) and some of the existing veterans while having enough left to replace some others while giving players like Mavrik Bourque a full-time look if he isn’t in that role next season already.  They’ll be alright for that summer.

In 2026, they don’t have quite as much coming off the books ($11.5MM in UFA contracts for three players) but that plus another expected cap increase should be enough for a new deal for RFA Jason Robertson while again allowing them to retain or replace some of the veterans at least.  And then the following summer, Tyler Seguin is off the books, opening up nearly $10MM alone in extra flexibility.

Long story short, I don’t think there’s a big veteran exodus coming in Dallas because of how their expiring contracts are largely staggered.  That, coupled with a decent prospect pool, should be enough to keep them as a legitimate threat for a while yet.

Unclemike1526: I thought Kyle Davidson did a great job in Free Agency even if most of the so-called ”Hockey Experts” don’t seem to agree with me. That is up until the T.J. Brodie signing. One I didn’t understand the signing because he wasn’t very good last year and two, I didn’t get the two years. Was there that big a market for him that they had to add a second year to get him? I mean the money isn’t a problem because the Hawks have tons of it but it just seemed a curious signing to me. And what did you think of the Hawks Draft and FA overall? Thoughts? Thanks as always.

The success or lack thereof in Chicago’s offseason is contingent on whether you agree with the direction they took that will see several of their younger players sent to the minors.  If you’re of the mindset that you want your top youngsters getting big minutes in the NHL, you’re not going to like what they’ve done.  But if you like the idea of having fewer youngsters up but playing with a better group while the rest are playing big minutes in what should be a winning environment in AHL Rockford, you’re going to like what they did.  I’m in the latter camp.

While it might seem like they went a bit overboard, they have several expiring contracts up front while Alec Martinez is on a one-year pact.  They can easily move some of their younger players into the NHL for 2025-26 where they’ll be a bit more ready for the challenge.  So I was a fan of the strategy they took although another cap-clearinghouse move wouldn’t have hurt had one been available.

As for Brodie, the second year doesn’t shock me.  As part of our planning for the Top 50 UFA list we do each year, we include a contract projection.  Mine was two years at $3.5MM per season so two at $3.75MM is close enough.  (Having said that, I didn’t have Chicago on my shortlist of landing spots.)  Did he struggle in Toronto?  Yes.  But he was playing nearly 22 minutes a night.  That context gets missed a lot.  So he’s not a top-pairing player anymore.  That’s not a big deal.  Chicago isn’t paying him to be a top-pairing player, they’re paying him to be an 18-20-minute piece, one who can play on both sides of the ice.  I think there was enough demand for that type of player that someone was giving him the second year.

Draft-wise, I was fine with Artyom Levshunov with the second pick.  Ivan Demidov would have been my pick but I understand the value of a high-end right-shot defenseman; those are hard to come by.  Given their young center depth, I was a bit surprised with the Sacha Boisvert pick when Cole Eiserman was still on the board but value-wise, he was ranked in that range so it’s not a bad pick.  I didn’t have Marek Vanacker as a late first-round pick but once you get to that point, there’s not much of a difference between a late first and an early second so I won’t quibble much there.  Out of their other picks, John Mustard and A.J. Spellacy were good value for where they were taken.  If I had to quibble, I’d have liked to have seen a second defender come before their final pick but otherwise, I think they did fine.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s left to look forward to this summer after a wild start to free agency, Detroit’s surprisingly quiet offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

DirtbagBlues: What are the odds Vegas trades from their blue line depth for a top-six winger? Who could they target?

This is largely a toss-up question for me.  If the Golden Knights do that, they’re weakening their back end as it’s not the depth players like Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud who are going to bring back a legitimate top-six forward.  If they don’t, their forward group isn’t going to look anywhere near as strong as it did just last season.  There’s no right answer here; it comes down to which area do they think could be easier to address in-season.  For me, that’s the forward group so I’d put the odds at 40%.

For the first part of the season, I suspect Vegas will want to see what they have.  Can Alexander Holtz find a new gear with a new team and a new system?  Can Victor Olofsson lock down a regular spot?  I could see Nicolas Roy getting a chance to play on the wing in the top six as well with Brett Howden anchoring the fourth line.  Maybe William Karlsson gets a shot on the wing with Roy centring the third line.  Brendan Brisson could get a chance.  If they hit with one of those, they’re in much better shape.  They don’t have that many options defensively which is why I think they lean this way.

Now, you asked who they could target if they moved a defenseman out so I’ll play along.  Personally, I feel like they’re a dark horse for Martin Necas.  If they’re going after a legitimate piece, I think it costs them Shea Theodore.  They have enough LTIR space remaining using Robin Lehner’s expected placement on there to cover the gap between Theodore’s $5.2MM and what Necas’ next deal should cost.  It probably takes both players agreeing to new deals before a trade is finalized but that could be an interesting one.

Failing that, Nikolaj Ehlers feels like another target although that could be more of a rental-for-rental type of swap.  Patrik Laine is in play but I don’t see Columbus eating half the contract and without that, he’s probably too hard to fit in.  There aren’t many viable options though, not with a lot of teams likely done their heavy lifting already.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Hayton for Liljegren and a 5th, who says no?

It’s an interesting idea, two players who their current teams have been patient with but haven’t quite been able to make the consistent impact that their draft slots would suggest.  For a deal like this, the late-round draft pick is largely meaningless; generally speaking, a team isn’t going to part with what they perceive is a slightly better player because they’re getting a fifth-round pick back.  For all intents and purposes, the teams would be evaluating this as a one-for-one idea.

For Toronto, getting Barrett Hayton would give them some extra center depth, giving them the chance to shift Max Domi to the wing or perhaps Hayton himself.  They’d have some desirable flexibility at a minimum.  Perhaps more importantly, they’d have a bit more insurance down the middle with John Tavares a year away from UFA eligibility.  While their right-shot defensive depth would be thinned out more – especially with Jani Hakanpaa’s deal still not yet registered amid speculation about concern over his knee injury – I think the good outweighs the bad, including $350K in cap savings.  I think they say yes.

I’m less sure that Utah would, however.  They have Sean Durzi and newly-acquired John Marino in their top two spots on the right side of their back end.  Now, they’re parting with Hayton to upgrade their third pairing.  I think they can accomplish that objective without necessarily moving Hayton to do that, especially with nearly $10MM in cap room to work with still, per PuckPedia.  I suspect they’d rather explore alternate ways to fill out their third pairing or defensive depth, ones that wouldn’t see them parting with a roster forward in the process.  Value-wise, it’s pretty good but I think Utah says no here.

Schwa: With most of the UFAs signed already, is this going to be a very boring offseason? Or do you foresee any big trades or otherwise coming between now and training camp?

We’re at the point of the offseason where things are going to get really slow.  Yes, it’ll probably come in on the boring side most days but there are some things worth keeping an eye on.

On the trade front, what happens with Necas, Laine, Ehlers, and Trevor Zegras, among others?  Those are all notable moves that could happen.  I feel like Detroit (more on them shortly) has something coming.  Montreal is still believed to be sniffing around a move up front.  While Winnipeg could be moving Ehlers, it feels like they need to add up front as well.  With no truly prominent free agents remaining, there’s no real domino that needs to fall for any of these moves to happen (Laine exiting the Player Assistance Program feels like the first possible one to get things going) so these may take a while.

I’m also intrigued about some of the extension-eligible players.  What happens with Leon Draisaitl and the GM-less Oilers, especially with an implied desire to not negotiate in-season?  Does Sidney Crosby get his deal done?  Mikko Rantanen, Carter Verhaeghe, and Mitch Marner are all eligible as well.  It’s doubtful all of these players put pen to paper on new deals by training camp but we could see a few which could make things interesting.

Unclemike1526: Everybody is trying to make a big deal about Nick Foligno talking to Tyler Bertuzzi on the phone and calling it tampering. Since they’re from the same town and seem to be friends so what? I mean players talk to each other. It’s been going on in Basketball for years and nobody bats an eye. Isn’t there some sort of “legal communication” period before free agency anyway? Bertuzzi wasn’t going back where he was because of the cap so what is the real story?

Let me answer these out of order.  There is no longer a pre-free agency communication period.  Officially, no contact of any kind is to be had with pending free agents until July 1st at 11 AM CT.  I’m not sure a single team even came close to abiding to that based on what happened on July 1st but that’s what the NHL would have us believe.  (As an aside, the penalties the NBA put in for tampering the last couple of years really slowed down the start of the market in that league compared to the free-for-all it was in the past or at least slowed down the leaks of pre-arranged deals once the window opened up on June 30th.)

That Foligno talked to Bertuzzi isn’t a point of concern on its own.  Players can unofficially try to recruit potential free agents by talking about all of the good things about the market, schools for their kids, how nice it is to play for a certain coach, etc.  All of that is fine.  Speak in general terms and there’s no issue.

But Bertuzzi’s admission that Chicago wasn’t on his radar until Foligno told him Chicago was interested isn’t speaking in general terms.  As soon as Foligno allegedly told Bertuzzi before the market opened up that the Blackhawks had interest, he was relaying a message from management indicating interest to a prospective free agent before legal communication could begin.  That is indeed tampering.

Think of it this way.  If Foligno told Bertuzzi that he should come to Chicago, it’s a good place to play and there’s lots you’ll like, that’s fine.  If he said it’s a good place to play, there’s lots you’ll like, and they’re putting together a big offer for you, that’s a problem.  That’s the difference.

Having said that, there were what, 70 of these contracts that were pretty much done before the market opened up?  Toronto had some of those as well so it’s not as if they can cry foul on Bertuzzi knowing they somehow had several contracts finalized mere minutes into free agency.  They’re not going to make a fuss about it but if Bertuzzi’s account is truthful, there’s at least a part of it that would qualify as tampering.

tigers22 2: Could the Red Wings have had a worse offseason and the worst most confusing trade to start a year? Why do we have 20 goalies?

It can always be worse.  A couple of players go and get long-term injuries while training that costs them considerable time during the regular season, a core piece could ask for a trade, stuff like that.  But yes, their offseason so far qualifies as extremely underwhelming.

The Jake Walman trade was surprising on a few fronts.  The first is that they opted to get rid of him in the first place over someone like Justin Holl who could barely crack the lineup.  If you’re going to part with a fairly high draft pick to move off a contract, shouldn’t it have been him who moved?  The second is that it took incentivization to move him in the first place; I thought he had some standalone value.  And the third is that the move was made before the corresponding swap was in place.

This is pure speculation on my end but I think this was part of the Jacob Trouba speculated swap, Detroit needed to clear a spot for him and offset some of the money and the Rangers didn’t want to take him back as they wanted the cap space.  Yzerman pulled the trigger early, expecting that deal to get done or to use that money elsewhere.  Unless you’re counting that money as going to Vladimir Tarasenko (a nice add for them, by the way, to replace Robby Fabbri), that didn’t happen.

If there’s a small silver lining here (and I mean small), it’s that they have enough cap space left to offer long-term deals to Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.  This time a month ago, I didn’t think they could do both; I expected a long-term agreement for Seider and a bridge for Raymond.  If they both get long-term deals and continue to progress, that could be beneficial down the road.  Like I said, that’s a very small silver lining.

As for the seven goaltenders they have under contract, it is a lot.  I think they’ve decided to carry three at the NHL level again (Cam Talbot, Alex Lyon, and Ville Husso).  Jack Campbell is the veteran to work with Sebastian Cossa at AHL Grand Rapids.  Carter Gylander starts at the ECHL level where he can get a number one workload.  That’s six and I can make sense of that.  The seventh is Gage Alexander and I’m not sure he was necessarily targeted by Detroit.  I think he was simply the contract they had to take back in the Fabbri swap with the Ducks getting close to the contract limit.  He’s probably ECHL-bound as well but it wouldn’t shock me if he was flipped for a skater down the road.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the goaltending market, questions about Colorado’s upcoming offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our previous two mailbag columns.

@3rdWorldGhost: Where do these goalies end up? – Markstrom, Saros, Gibson, Korpisalo, Nedeljkovic, Samsonov, Ullmark, and what other goalies do you see moving?

What UFAs end up in Chicago?
What’s your top 10 mock draft?
Do the Panthers blow it up if they win?

There’s a lot to dig into here so these will be pretty quick answers.  We now know that Jacob Markstrom will be with New Jersey and Alex Nedeljkovic is staying in Pittsburgh.  We also now know Joonas Korpisalo and Linus Ullmark have traded places. As for the other goalies, I’m leaning toward Juuse Saros staying in Nashville while John Gibson landing in Toronto is something I’ve had kicking around for a bit, assuming they’re not on his no-trade list and Anaheim holds back some salary.  My original landing spot for Ilya Samsonov went out the window with the goalie movement this week so let’s go with him landing in Chicago.  There are other goalies who will move, largely of the backup variety, headlined by Laurent Brossoit and Alex Stalock.  Guessing where they’ll land on that particular carousel is nothing short of a dart throw, however.

Looking back at my picks for our upcoming UFA rankings (which will require some adjustments for that goalie movement), I had them picked for Jake Guentzel, Alexander Wennberg, Daniel Sprong, and Matt Grzelcyk plus Samsonov now.  Note that we make picks independently of each other knowing that one signing often blocks others on that team so don’t interpret that as me picking all of them, they’re all individual one-off predictions.  (Keep this in mind when the full predictions come out in the coming days.)

Guentzel is the headliner while the others I picked as short-term bridge players to give their prospects some time to develop.  I don’t think they’ll land all of those players but if they got Guentzel plus a floor-raising veteran or two, that wouldn’t be a bad trip through free agency.  I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s some activity on the trade front as well where they take on a short-term contract as they’ve done lately.

As for a mock draft, here are my predictions as things currently stand:

1) SJ – F Macklin Celebrini
2) CHI – D Artyom Levshunov
3) ANA – D Anton Silayev
4) CBJ – F Ivan Demidov
5) MTL – F Cayden Lindstrom
6) UTA – D Zeev Buium
7) OTT – F Bennett Sennecke
8) SEA – D Sam Dickinson
9) CGY – D Carter Yakemchuk
10) NJ – F Tij Iginla

Meanwhile, we released our Round One Mock Draft earlier today so be sure to check that out if you haven’t already done so.

I don’t see a full-scale blow-up coming from Florida.  Obviously, they’re not going to be able to afford to keep all of their pending free agents so they will probably take a small step back from that.  But even if that happens, they should still be viewed as a contender.  If you have a shot at contending, you probably won’t be blowing things up.  Besides, they don’t have control of their next two first-round picks so if they were going to take a step back, they wouldn’t even be able to benefit from it in the form of adding high-end prospects.  It’s full steam ahead for them as a result.

Emoney123: How would you rate the Flyers’ rebuild? Besides the hype of Michkov, how soon might Gendron, Bonk, Barkey, Tuomaala, Rizzo, and McDonald play in the NHL? How would you rate the farm system overall? Thanks!

I think they’re off to a good start to their rebuild but there is still some work to be done.  If it’s a larger-scale teardown which I think is what they were aiming for at least, they don’t have enough pieces yet.  I’m answering out of order but I think this is a mid-pack system at the moment.  If you’re planning to exit a rebuild, you don’t want a mid-pack system to start from; obviously, you want to be at least somewhere in the top ten.

Of the players you listed, the only ones that might be close to seeing NHL action is Massimo Rizzo.  A good showing to start next season with Lehigh Valley would get him on the recall radar.  Samu Tuomaala could also get into that mix as well.  I’m not convinced Alexis Gendron will be an NHL regular; I need to see some sustained pro success to show that he’s not just a high-end junior scorer.  Denver Barkey has another year of major junior left and, like Gendron, will probably need time to adjust in the minors so he’s not on the short-term horizon either.

On the back end, I like Oliver Bonk as an all-around dependable piece.  He may not be flashy but he will be effective.  But he has another OHL year left and probably some time in the minors after that; many teams don’t bring blueliners straight to the NHL from junior.  As for Hunter McDonald, I feel like he’s more of an organizational filler prospect than someone they should be counting on for meaningful NHL contributions.  He can certainly change that assessment with a good showing for a couple of years in the minors but at a minimum, he’s probably not a short-term option.

Philadelphia needs more high-end prospects and frankly, more depth before emerging from this rebuild.  They’re off to a good start but that’s all it is, a start.

@iwtfwc: How do things play out for the @Avalanche this offseason?

– Landeskog? (I’m not confident)
– Nichushkin? (Seems they’re stuck unless he fails Stage 3)
– Drouin contact?
– Mittelstadt contract?
– Roster fill out?
– Chances of adding Nedeljkovic?

I’m not overly confident either that Gabriel Landeskog will be able to have any sort of successful extended comeback.  However, I do think he’s going to give it an honest try and will start the season with the Avs.  That will limit them this summer but if he shuts it down midseason, they’ll have plenty of in-year flexibility.  I agree on Valeri Nichushkin, their hands are tied right now.  He needs to get through the third stage of the program and then they can assess things from there.  But they basically have to reserve space to activate him when he’s cleared.

If Jonathan Drouin comes back, it might be after free agency starts.  I don’t think the Avalanche are willing to get to his number at this point, barring a cap-clearing move needing to be made first.  If they were ready and able to make a deal, it’d be done already.  But if Drouin’s market isn’t the strongest (and with how things went in Montreal, it might not be as robust as his camp hopes), I could see them circling back.  I had him at three years at $4.375MM per season in our free agent predictions and they might be able to afford that.

I talked a lot about Casey Mittelstadt in Colorado’s offseason checklist the other day so I won’t get into that in much detail again here.  I can’t see them affording a long-term deal so something in the four-to-six-year range around $5.5MM or so is where I see that falling.  In terms of filling out their roster, that was also a topic in their checklist.  It’s going to be a bunch of minimum-salary signings or close to it.  Your guess is as good as mine as to which players will accept it a few hours into free agency.

I don’t see Colorado adding another goalie for the big club this summer (obviously not Nedeljkovic now).  Justus Annunen did quite well in limited duty last year and has earned a longer look behind Alexandar Georgiev.  Perhaps more importantly, he’s slotted in at less than $840K for the next two years so it’s his spot to lose.  I do expect a signing for the Eagles, however.

RipperMagoo: Are the Devils better or worse after?

Sign Anthony Stolarz: three years, $8.25MM @ AAV $2.75MMl
Sign Nikita Zadorov: five years, $30MM @ AAV $6MM
Sign Dakota Joshua: three years, $9MM @ AAV $3MM
Trade Holtz and Bahl to SEA for Adam Larsson
Draft Cole Eiserman @ 10th

Before even looking at the options, the answer is yes.  Are the Devils better…yes.  If they did nothing, they’d be better than they were in 2023-24 as long as they don’t get slammed by injuries again.  We know they’ve addressed the goalie situation so let’s skip that one but here are some thoughts on the others.

Zadorov: I don’t agree with him being a $6MM player but it feels like someone’s going to give it to him.  Here’s the thing, how much do they want to spend on the back end?  They’re at nearly $20MM now which is fine but Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes are a year away from getting a lot more expensive.  If they get big second contracts and you add Zadorov, now we’re talking $30MM-plus and not by a little bit.  That might be too much spending on the blueline.  If they go for a defenseman this summer, I think it’ll be someone on a short-term contract and it might be by trade over free agency.

Larsson: I’m going out of order here but the two are related.  At least this is a short-term contract which better fits their salary structure but giving up Alexander Holtz and let’s say another young roster player (since Kevin Bahl is gone now) for a one-year rental to fill a fourth defenseman role seems steep.  And if you’re acquiring him with the idea of extending him, now you have three right-shot blueliners making at least $4.4MM for 2025-26 with Nemec still to sign.  Again, this feels like too much money on the back end.

Joshua: I think they’d happily take him at that price tag but I have a hunch he’s getting a bit more than that and possibly another year.  Think four years, $14MM in total.

Eiserman: With how his stock has slipped, I’m not sure he’d be their choice at 10 but it wouldn’t be a bad one.  Especially if Holtz isn’t in the long-term plans, another scoring winger isn’t a bad thing to have.

New Jersey has enough money to try to take a big swing this summer.  I think they’ll try to land a big fish up front and then add a veteran blueliner or two on short-term deals, giving them some shorter-term stability while leaving spots and salary slots for Nemec and Hughes to take on bigger roles a year later.

DevilShark: Which team that made the playoffs this year is in for the biggest hurt over the next 10 years when you look at a combo of current roster, prospect pool, and draft pick stock?

I’ll pick the Islanders here.  In an effort to hang around the playoff picture every year, they haven’t made many moves to add to their pick and prospect cupboards and unfortunately for them, they haven’t had much to show for it aside from their run in 2021.

If you look at their current roster, they’re a mid-pack team at best on paper.  They don’t have enough cap space to go after an impact player or two that could give them the boost they need.  As it is, they might have to buy someone out or pay an asset to get out of an undesirable contract for the second year in a row.  That’s not good.

Prospect-wise, they have one of the weakest systems in the NHL.  That’s a by-product of moving first-round picks (their last one was back in 2019, used on Simon Holmstrom) and some of their better prospects for win-now options.  Granted, moving some of those pieces helped them land Bo Horvat on a contract GM Lou Lamoriello wasn’t a fan of which isn’t nothing but sacrificing the future for the present will eventually catch up with teams.  Meanwhile, they don’t have their own first three picks in the upcoming draft (although they do have some selections from other teams at least).

I don’t see a path for them to drastically improve, nor do I see one that sees them bottom out.  The floor of their team is good but the ceiling isn’t much better.  At some point, they’re going to have to take some steps back to move more steps forward but I don’t see Lamoriello pivoting to that approach anytime soon.

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Topics in this edition of our mailbag include several draft questions, where Trevor Zegras might be playing next year, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from last weekend.  There will be one more that runs on Monday.

UncleMike1526: Who should be the one player, be it trade, UFA signing, or RFA signing the Blackhawks should target this offseason?

I’ll go with Jake Guentzel here.  Not only is he one of the top free agents available but he doesn’t cost anything but cap space to bring in.  (Unless Chicago were to trade for his negotiating rights, then it’d be a mid-round pick which isn’t a big deal for them.)  They’re at the point now where they need to start adding pieces and while he alone won’t turn around their fortunes for next season, getting a quality scorer for free (or close to it) would be great.

I also put some value in the success he had with Sidney Crosby.  It’s not as easy as some think to keep up with elite players so finding someone that could ride shotgun with Connor Bedard isn’t as easy as it seems.  Getting someone who has spent the majority of the last several years in that type of role would be the perfect fit to work with Bedard.  It might not be an easy sell considering there will be plenty of playoff-contending teams that will have interest but that would be a great outcome for them.

You mention an RFA signing in your question but an offer sheet would not be advisable for them.  If they’re signing someone of consequence, it’s going to cost them at least one first-round pick.  Those picks are unprotected and considering that one player alone isn’t going to make a big difference, I’m not sure they should be running the risk of losing what could be a fairly high lottery pick a year from now.

jminn: If Chicago takes Artyom Levshunov second overall, who do you think the Ducks will take? They’ve said they need both a right-handed defenseman and a right-handed wing. Do they attempt to get that at number three or take the guy they think is the best available player even though they’re loaded with left-handed defenders?

If it’s me in charge, I’d go with Ivan Demidov.  There is a bit of risk considering he was playing at a lower level but he might be the most skilled player left on the board.  Anaheim is still at a point where they should be looking to add firepower to their quickly improving forward group and getting a possible front-line winger to go with their young centers would be great.

But it’s not me in charge, it’s Pat Verbeek.  He has certainly put an emphasis on size and grit and Anton Silayev could be that type of unicorn defender that rarely comes around.  Even though he doesn’t have the offensive upside that several other blueliners do, players with his profile that can play at a high level don’t come around too often.

Yes, the Ducks have ample left-side depth on the back end.  But they don’t have anyone like Silayev.  He’s someone who could be that key shutdown defender who kills penalties and plays in late-game defensive situations, basically being the perfect complementary piece to Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger on the left side.  Watching these playoffs, Silayev could be a significant difference-maker and that’s why I think they’ll view him as the BPA and add him to their already-deep prospect pool.

GBear: Draft question!

Assuming the Preds are looking for a forward who is a drive-the-play type player, who would you be looking at as likely available at the #22 spot at the draft? I’m leaning towards Sacha Boisvert, fwiw.

This is probably a good time for my annual reminder that I’m not a scout by any stretch of the imagination so I’m relying solely on second-hand info as a result.  Boisvert seems like a good fit in that range.  I wonder about Igor Chernyshov falling into that range as well.  He has that power forward-type of profile but we’ve seen some Russian-born players slip in recent years and if he does, he could fall into Nashville’s laps.

I don’t know if he necessarily fits the profile you’re hoping for but the other player that comes to mind for them if they’re going for a forward is Andrew Basha.  He is a bit smaller but is a strong puck carrier who could drive the play while being an all-situations player.  He’s the type of complementary player that I could see GM Barry Trotz showing some interest in him and that’s in the range that some think Basha will land in.

jminn: Do you think Carter Yakemchuk is NHL-ready or does he need AHL seasoning?

Offensively, I think Yakemchuk could hold his own in the NHL next season and that’s a compliment.  His shot is a considerable weapon and he doesn’t hesitate to get involved in the rush; that’s something teams could work with.  Physically, he has a frame where he might be able to stick as well.  But on the whole, no, I don’t think he’s ready to play at the top level just yet.

One of the big knocks on him is his skating.  That’s something that pro teams will exploit pretty quickly.  In general, his defensive game needs some work.  Part of that can be fixed with skating improvements but he needs reps against easier competition to start developing some better habits on that end.  I think he’d be overwhelmed if exposed to NHL-level players on an extended basis.  Most blueliners would; there’s a reason why there are very few 18-year-old defenders in the NHL.

I’ll also clarify that Yakemchuk isn’t eligible to play in the AHL next season.  As a CHL-based player, it’s NHL or bust for him.  He’s not eligible to play in the minors on a full-time basis until 2026-27.  Unless his defensive game and skating improve considerably over the next couple of years, he could certainly benefit from time in that level as well to shore up that side of his game before getting regular NHL minutes.  That’s a pretty standard development curve for most rearguards and I think it’s probably the best one for him as well.

@SamToo22: Where does Trevor Zegras end up?

One of the challenges of finding the right fit for Zegras (if he’s moved at all) is trying to figure out what it is they want.  I expect they’ll be active in free agency again this summer as they look to add veteran pieces to help position themselves toward moving past their rebuild.  But having said that, it would surprise me if they were interested in moving Zegras for that veteran type of piece; I think they’ll want someone (or something) with considerable club control.  That takes some potential suitors off the table.

On the flip side, having been rebuilding for basically six years now, a strictly futures-based return probably isn’t going to fly either.  Sure, a high draft pick could be part of a package but there needs to be someone that isn’t years away from being an impact NHL player.  This element might not reduce any suitors but it puts more limitations on the types of offers that could be made.

Montreal has been suggested as a possible fit.  They’ve moved younger players and draft picks at the last couple of drafts for more win-now help and they have a fairly deep prospect pool and some young roster players that could be appealing.  If he went there, it wouldn’t surprise me.

But my pick is Utah.  It’s the same general idea as Montreal in that they have a draft pick surplus, a strong group of prospects, and some younger roster pieces that can help Anaheim in the near future.  Like many, I expect Utah to take a swing or two this summer and go after someone like Zegras who is young enough that he can be a part of the younger core group they already have.  They certainly could use some help down the middle and an influx of offensive talent so if Zegras winds up moving, Utah is my guess at a landing spot.

Gmm8811: So let’s talk about CapFriendly… where are we gonna go now to find that kind of information? Maybe your site will expand its content? Also, any updates on what is going on with the players involved in the Hockey Canada mess?

jminn: Why didn’t the NHL buy CF? Daly and his chimp sleeping at the wheel.

Losing cap sites is something I’ve been accustomed to over the years.  I remember about 20 years ago when there weren’t any sites but rather a mailing list with an Excel spreadsheet (which took quite a while to get onto, might I add) that had contract info but not cap tracking.  Teams have taken over cap sites before and we’ve been fortunate enough to have new ones pop up quickly.  Fortunately, we don’t have to wait for a new one this time as PuckPedia has been up and running for several years now.  Meanwhile, as Josh Erickson noted in a reply to this question in the callout, we are looking into some options as well but obviously there’s nothing to report on that front.

As to why the NHL didn’t take over the site, they are steadfastly against salary disclosure.  I remember Gary Bettman saying in the past that he didn’t think there was much demand for this information; it came a day or two after the cap site at the time crashed due to too many visitors putting too much strain on the site’s server.  We’ve learned since Washington’s purchase was announced that the league wasn’t too thrilled about the existence and popularity of CapFriendly so the last thing they were going to do was amplify it by folding it into their own site.  If anything, I suspect there were some cheers from the league office when it came out that a team was buying it and getting CapFriendly out of the public domain.

Meanwhile, regarding the Hockey Canada situation, TSN’s Rick Westhead relayed last week (Twitter link) that a trial date won’t be set until mid-August while the earliest a trial could happen would probably be April 2025 and that the proceedings could take at least two months.  Accordingly, there isn’t going to be much news on that front for a while yet.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Jacob Trouba’s future with the Rangers, Patrik Laine’s situation in Columbus, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, we’ll have two more of these columns between now and next weekend so watch for it in one of those.

@JJFlip1995: What is the likelihood that the Bruins trade Ullmark and what is a likely return from said trade?

GM Don Sweeney has made it clear that he’d love to keep both netminders.  I think he’s speaking truthfully about that desire.  But I would be absolutely stunned if it actually happened.  Jeremy Swayman is heading for a pricey long-term contract which would push Boston’s spending on goaltenders near the top of the NHL.  Given that they have some needs to fill while having some rare spending flexibility this summer, I’m not sure that spending big between the pipes is the best way to do it.  It’ll help during the regular season but come playoff time, we saw how little having Ullmark as a high-end second option mattered.

As for a return, I don’t think it’s going to be a huge one.  With what’s believed to be multiple other veteran starters available this summer, the market isn’t going to be too strong beyond the top option (and that’s not Ullmark).  I don’t see the high-end picks being in play over the next couple of weeks.

A lot will depend on if the Bruins are taking a contract back as part of the swap.  If they’re just moving him straight up, they might get a late first-round pick and even that might be on the high side if other dominoes fall first.  I think their preference might be to try to swap Ullmark for a skater to fill one of their other holes with a minimal cap effect.  At that point, you’re probably looking at a second-pairing defender or a second-line winger.  If they can do that and then back-fill with Brandon Bussi taking over behind Swayman, that would be a solid outcome for them.

@RamonesFan41: Who will the Rangers buy out? Trouba, Goodrow, or someone else???

Can I pick none of the above?  I don’t think they buy out anyone, to be honest.

I’ll talk a bit more about Trouba shortly but a buyout costs them $4MM for the next two years and then $2MM for two more years after that.  Can the Rangers get a better defenseman for $4MM or less?  I don’t think they can.  So if you’re not able to upgrade that position, why buy him out and make the team worse?  He didn’t have a great playoff showing but he can still be a contributor so I don’t think they even consider the possibility of a buyout for him.

As for Barclay Goodrow, you could sell me on the idea, at least.  The buyout price tag isn’t crazy.  They’d have a cap credit next season of $200K followed by a $1MM cap charge in 2025-26 before ballooning to a $3.5MM charge in 2026-27.  From there, it’s a little over $1.1MM for three more years.  If they need extra money now, they could buy him out and pre-spend some of the expected cap increase in 2026-27 to cover the higher cost at that time.

But Goodrow is coming off a strong postseason showing where he was one of their leaders in goals with six.  He’s a player who is more effective in the playoffs and I think some might suggest they need more of those players, not less.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they bought him out but I’m leaning no right now.

Looking at the rest of the roster, I don’t see a viable candidate.  If they have reservations about Filip Chytil being able to stay healthy moving forward, they could try to buy him out at one-third of the cost but with the concussion issues he had, I suspect that’s a grievance waiting to happen.  That’s really about it for options so I don’t expect them to go that route in the next couple of weeks.

met man: Do the Rangers stand pat or make moves to improve the team via trades or free agent signings?

With a little over $9MM in cap room per CapFriendly, New York has enough cap space to re-sign Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider and round out the roster so they don’t have to necessarily do anything.  They wouldn’t be able to do much else but starting next season with the bulk of this core intact isn’t a bad way to go.  We are, after all, talking about the team that had the most points during the regular season so it’s a good group.

Kaapo Kakko feels like a possible trade chip even with his new deal.  Maybe there’s a winger at a similar price tag that they feel is a better fit on the roster or if they want a free agent in that price range, perhaps you look at moving him for a draft pick.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they looked at some lower-cost free agents as well.  In general, I expect a fairly quiet offseason from them.

But if it were up to me, I’d look to try to go into next season with a couple million in cap space.  They have some waiver-exempt players who could be shuffled back and forth on off days to add to that amount.  Maintaining that to the trade deadline is worth around $9MM to $10MM in full-season salaries, giving them the ability to add multiple players.  If they make a move now, it probably caps them out.  I’d rather try to get two pieces in-season than one during the summer, especially on a team that is already somewhat of a contender.

Schwa: Do you see the Rangers moving on from Trouba? What could you see as the additional assets given to get him off the books?

Maybe a team like Utah could be a fit given they have no D under contract for next season. $8MM for two seasons isn’t too bad for a team to get a physical player who offers leadership. They need to spend some money and he likely won’t provide a cap crunch for them by the time the contract expires.

Let’s talk about Trouba a bit more now.  As I already noted earlier, I don’t see a buyout happening.  It’s fair to say that he underachieved this season and that doesn’t help his short-term trade value.  Neither does an $8MM price tag.  Yes, two years remaining makes it more manageable but how many teams can realistically afford that?  Perhaps more importantly, how many good teams can afford that?

You identified Utah as a possible landing spot and your logic is certainly sound.  That’s definitely a team that could benefit from a shorter-term veteran add to try to stabilize things and they can certainly afford the contract.  But they’re not a playoff team.  Trouba has a 15-team no-trade clause as of July 1st (with a full no-move before then).  Personally, I think it stands to reason that he’d have some non-playoff teams on that list which probably takes Chicago and San Jose, other weaker teams with ample cap room, off the table as well.

If you look at the list of playoff teams this year that can probably afford to take on an $8MM contract without it materially affecting what else they might try to do this summer, Nashville comes to mind.  The problem is they might be the only team on that list.

Without many viable options for a cap dump, they might have to look at trying to move him for another player.  But in doing that, they’re mitigating the cap savings and if I’m being honest, I don’t think they’d get the best player in the move.  If you’re a contender, how much is it worth it to take a lesser player back (one that won’t log 20-plus minutes a night on the right side of the back end) and only get a bit of cap savings?  That doesn’t seem like a great idea to me.  Never say never but I think he stays put.

frozenaquatic: Panarin straight up for Marner. NTCs notwithstanding, who says no? Fills organizational holes for each, and opens up first-line LW for Lafreniere. Panarin’s a little better but Marner is a little younger. Similar contracts.

Trouba to Hockey Club Sibir Novosibirsk Oblast for two pucks and a mouthguard. Who says no? The mouthguard?

I think we’ve covered Trouba more than enough by now but let’s talk about the first proposal.  In a vacuum, I don’t dislike the offer for either side; your quick logic makes sense.  I do think both sides would say no, however.

From Toronto’s perspective, the idea of trading Mitch Marner would be to change up the composition of their roster.  Maybe it’s for a prominent blueliner, a power forward, a future center to possibly replace John Tavares, or a combination of the three.  Artemi Panarin does none of that.  He gets them an extra year of club control at a slightly higher price tag which isn’t nothing but that’s not the type of roster shakeup I think they’d be looking to do.

Meanwhile, for the Rangers, while they save a bit of money for next season, it could cost them considerably for 2025-26.  If they can’t re-sign Marner, then they’ve lost a year of a player who just put up 120 points.  And if they can re-sign him, it’s probably going to be at a price tag that’s higher than Panarin’s which could be notable as they potentially look to reshape their roster.  Having said that, I think they’d be the likelier of the two teams to say yes even though I think they’d say no in the end.

PyramidHeadcrab: Since hindsight is 20/20, who won the Tkachuk-Huberdeau trade? I gotta imagine Florida wins that one by a mile, but can we prove it with numbers? I distinctly remember the Florida fanbase having an absolute meltdown, “Tkachuk is just a mid power forward without Gaudreau!” But in watching this guy the past couple years, I personally think he’s become my favourite player since Paul Kariya.

Still gotta get me a Kariya #9 Ducks jersey…

And speaking of the other casualty of Calgary’s cap crunch, what does Johnny Gaudreau need to be successful going forward in Columbus?

Right now, it’s Florida by a considerable margin in that trade.  Matthew Tkachuk has outscored both Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar combined since the swap (197 points to 190) and makes $7.25MM less.  I think that’s all the numbers that are really needed.

Tkachuk has proven himself to be a legitimate top-line power forward whose style fits in perfectly with a grittier group that the Panthers have.  And while a $9.75MM price tag certainly isn’t cheap, he’d get considerably more than that if he was hitting the open market next month.

Meanwhile, Huberdeau has struggled immensely under two different head coaches now over his first two years in Calgary.  He’s one of the highest-paid wingers in the league and is producing like a second-liner with two years of a little over 50 points.  That can’t be spun as a positive.  They need a whole lot more from him and barring an influx of offensive talent, I’m not sure he can be counted on to produce anywhere close to the level he was with Florida.

I will say this, however.  Weegar had a great season, scoring 20 goals and 52 points while logging nearly 23 minutes a night.  He’s a legitimate top-pairing player and at $6.25MM on a long-term deal, they’ll get some good value out of that for a while, either with the Flames or as part of a trade if they opt for a rebuild.

It’s hard to say Florida will lose this deal, especially if they’re able to close things out against Edmonton.  Right now, it looks pretty lopsided but if Huberdeau can return to a top-line level, Calgary could still do relatively well here.

As for Gaudreau, he needs higher-end linemates.  Boone Jenner is a very good center, one of the more underrated ones even.  But he’s not a true top-line option, especially offensively.  A well-rounded offensive middleman to play off of would make a big difference.  I think they have that in their system, it’s just a matter of getting Adam Fantilli more development time.  In an ideal world, a big winger on the other side to do some of the board work would also help.  So, too, would a more free-flowing system.  In other words, Gaudreau needs a lot to go right if he wants to get back to the point-per-game level.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the year that was for Nashville, what the Flyers could look to do this summer, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our past two mailbag columns.

SkidRowe: Given this year’s group of UFAs, who would you sign if you only have $11MM to spend and you need a top-six forward and a left shot defenseman?

This is a question that can have a lot of different answers based on team needs.  Is there a need for an impactful top-four left-shot blueliner which could cost half of that amount or more or do they only need a depth piece, freeing up more money for the forward?  Does that team need a center more than a winger?  As a result, I could come up with a lot of viable answers depending on those needs.  But let’s focus on a couple of scenarios.

If my team has a couple of top-four left-shot options already and I’m looking to go a bit cheaper on the blueline and spend more up front, I’m targeting Oliver Kylington.  He had 31 points in 2021-22, his last full NHL season.  He was more limited this year after returning so a cut from his $2.5MM is certainly possible, especially if it’s a short-term deal.  At 27 (as of today) and with his last full season being a good one, I think he’s going to be one of the better low-cost upside plays, giving me lots of room to spend on the forward.  Failing that, if that team wants some extra firepower, I’d kick the tires on Erik Gustafsson, a player who produces some points but causes enough goals the other way to keep his price tag low.

What’s left after signing Kylington should be enough to shop towards the upper tier of the market.  We’re not in Sam Reinhart territory but if Kylington comes in around $2MM, that should be enough for Jake Guentzel or Steven Stamkos should he not come to terms with Tampa Bay.  The back end of Guentzel’s deal might be iffy – long-term agreements like that often are – but it’d be hard to pass up a shot at an impact scorer.

Now, if the team needs a top-four guy, things change.  It’s not a great market for impactful left-shot blueliners.  There’s Brady Skjei and well, that’s about it.  Shayne Gostisbehere scores enough to be a top-four guy but if you’re looking for a 20-minute-plus minutes-eater, he’s not that player.  Among lefties, only Skjei is.  That will push his price tag past the $6MM mark, potentially closer to $7MM if there winds up being a big market for his services.

That means I don’t have much left up front so I need to get creative and shoot for some upside.  Chandler Stephenson could be nice but it’s iffy that there’s enough left for him.  What does the medical testing about Patrick Kane say?  If the team doctors say he’s likely to hold up, would a multi-year deal for what’s left represent enough of a commitment?  Would a one-year deal for what’s left with some incentives (which can be applied if needed on the 2025-26 books) do it?  Sean Monahan might also fit in this price range as some teams will be scared off with his injury history.  If I need to pay up to get Skjei, I might need to get creative to try to get an impact top-six forward as well.

GBear: What was the point of the Preds 2023/24 season? They’ll once again pick outside the top 20 in the draft and got booted in the first round of the playoffs again, being led mostly by veteran-age players. Aren’t they just doing what they always have in the past despite saying they didn’t want to be in the mushy middle any longer?

It’s definitely a fair question to ask.  I’ll be honest, I didn’t see Nashville as a playoff team heading into the season.  I thought this was going to be a culture-setting season with a new front office, a new coach, and new leaders.  They’d set the tone and foundation to move forward from and if they made the playoffs, that was just an added bonus.  I wouldn’t be shocked if management sees it this way as well.

But you’re absolutely right in saying that they basically wound up where they’d been before when all is said and done.  They’re not really closer to necessarily contending, nor are they going to be able to bring in a top prospect based on where they’re drafting.  Framed that way, yeah, it was a bit of a ‘tires spinning in the mud’ type of year.

If you’re looking for a positive takeaway from this season, it might be this – the floor of the roster is better than most anticipated.  Nashville has ample cap space this summer to go out and try to add a couple of impact players.  If they hand the starting job to Yaroslav Askarov and move Juuse Saros (more on that idea shortly), they might even have enough for a third impact piece.  Add that to the floor this group showed and that could be enough to create a group that could have some damage although being in a division with Dallas, Colorado, and Winnipeg certainly doesn’t help things.

tigers22 2: What package of picks and players would the Red Wings need to give up to get Saros?

There are some teams where acquiring and extending Saros makes a lot of sense.  I’m not sure Detroit is one of them.  Sebastian Cossa is viewed as their goalie of the future and there’s little reason to assume they’re starting to second-guess that.  He’s a couple of years away but that’s perfectly fine for a 21-year-old.  But if he’s their guy moving forward, extending Saros on a long-term deal at a cap hit over $8MM is going to block Cossa.  And as their young core group gets more expensive (Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are up for pricey deals this summer), if they can avoid another pricey long-term pact, it’ll give them more flexibility moving forward.

However, adding Saros as a rental player for next season does make some sense for them.  Detroit is at the point where they need to start getting their core group some playoff experience.  We think back to the long playoff streak they had but they haven’t made it once since then; they’ve missed eight years in a row.  Something has to give sooner than later and GM Steve Yzerman knows it.  With goaltending being a big issue, perhaps getting Saros in to shore that up would be enough to get them back into the postseason.  From there, then they can get a better sense of what they’re going to need moving forward.  Even as a short-term addition, I think that’s worthwhile.

As for the cost, the Preds were believed to have a very high asking price to move him at the trade deadline.  With the other goalies that could be in play, I think they’re going to have to lower that.  And if Detroit doesn’t want to sign Saros to an extension as part of the deal, that should lower the price tag as well.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way and say that Ville Husso ($4.5MM for next season) needs to go the other way to match money.  I could see Nashville being more interested in players than picks, however.  I could see Michael Rasmussen being someone they ask for, a middle-six forward with some control.  I also think they’d ask for a young blueliner although if they were to get Rasmussen, they wouldn’t be able to ask for a top youngster.  But William Wallinder, an early second-round pick back in 2020, might be someone they want.  He’s still a year or two away but that’s better than a junior-aged prospect or draft pick that’d even be farther away.

If Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom, and even John Gibson are all on the block this summer, it’s going to make it hard for the Preds to get a first-round pick and another key piece or two.  A package like this, one that gives them some pieces that would help now (especially if Husso can get back to the level he was with St. Louis) and down the road, might be enough to get Saros as a pure rental.  But if several teams want to acquire and extend him, the asking price might get out of Detroit’s range.

Emoney123: With Fedotov and Ersson set in goal, what happens to Hart [RFA]? Who should the Flyers add with Michkov to mentor/develop into a scorer and playoff team?

With Carter Hart being a restricted free agent, the Flyers would have to issue him a $4.479MM qualifying offer to retain his rights.  He’s a year away from UFA eligibility which is particularly noteworthy considering it doesn’t sound like the court case will be held anytime soon.  Even if the offer was issued to retain his rights, chances are he’d be an unrestricted free agent by the time he potentially becomes eligible to play again depending on how the case plays out.  With that in mind, there’s no real benefit to tendering him so chances are he’ll go unqualified next month.

I touched on this a bit in Friday’s mailbag but are the Flyers at the point where they can say the rebuild is over and it’s time to add pieces to get into the playoffs?  This is a team that went into last year with a roster that looked nowhere near playoff-caliber and then, while in a playoff spot, sold.  After collapsing down the stretch, is that going to be the trigger point to say it’s time to go for it?  I don’t think so; they’re not there yet even with how the season went.  So I’m not sure they’re going to be too active in terms of trying to add pieces to become a playoff team.

If they can get Matvei Michkov over early (and it looks like this could happen), the idea of a mentor makes some sense in theory but I have to admit, finding the right fit is harder than I thought.  I don’t think the Flyers are going to be shopping at the top end of the free agent pool which takes some of the more prominent names off the table.

Vladimir Tarasenko stands out as a fit among the secondary pieces, however.  As an offensive player, he had to become a better defensive player in recent years which should help under a coach like John Tortorella.  Meanwhile, the Senators liked his off-ice value in a younger room before moving him at the trade deadline so he could have that same type of benefit for his fellow countryman.  After free agency didn’t go well last time around, a multi-year commitment at a small raise from the $5MM he made this year might get it done which is a price tag they can afford by going into LTIR.  I’d go with him as a veteran to try to add to work with Michkov.

Unclemike1526: Any chance the Hawks can move from 2 to 1? Thanks.

San Jose has already made it clear that they intend to take Macklin Celebrini, someone who they quite likely view as a foundational piece.  More importantly, he’s a foundational center, allowing them to have a strong future one-two punch with him and Will Smith down the middle.  Given how hard it is to find a middleman with that type of value, that makes it a lot harder for the Sharks to move that pick.  They’d want a foundational center in return.  The Blackhawks have one but it’s safe to say they’re not moving him.

Chicago can make a compelling offer to San Jose, certainly more compelling than probably any other team can.  If they offered up the second pick and, say, Frank Nazar, that’s a pretty solid offer.  But I don’t see Sharks GM Mike Grier biting at it and it won’t be a matter of adding extra lesser pieces to make the difference.  When you have a chance to get a franchise fixture down the middle, it’s almost impossible to pass up.

PyramidHeadcrab: It’s generally suggested that the KHL is the second-best professional hockey league in the world, but how competitive would a complete KHL team be if they were to compete in the NHL?

Additionally: How do the major European leagues (KHL, SHL, Liiga, German Elite League, etc.) compare to the North American pro game? Are they more on par with the AHL? ECHL?

And if we really wanna get spicy… What level would pro leagues in countries like Australia, Japan, and United Kingdom be comparable to?

While the reputation of the KHL has been that it’s the second-best league, I don’t think that’s the case anymore as there has been a drop-off in talent in recent years.  To answer your first question, I don’t think the typical KHL team would have much success at all in the NHL.  Even if you look at the roster and stats of the reigning champions Metallurg Magnitogorsk, I don’t see that franchise giving many teams a run for their money most nights.  They’d win some games, sure, but they’d probably be a strong candidate for the top spot in the draft lottery.

I’d have the SHL as the second-best league out there now by a narrow margin.  But again, those teams wouldn’t put up much of a fight against a typical NHL squad.  Now, against an average AHL squad, now we’re talking.  Teams from that league, or the KHL, or even Liiga I think would hold their own.  Maybe some Swiss teams as well as that league has picked up in terms of competitiveness lately.  Meanwhile, for the DEL and ICEHL (Germany and Austria), they’re not quite at that level so I suppose they’d be closer to the ECHL and even that might be a little generous.

As a random aside, back in 2013, AHL Rochester was invited to participate in the Spengler Cup, an international tournament featuring some club teams from various leagues.  The Amerks didn’t fare well (going 0-3) in that event and an AHL squad hasn’t been invited back since.  Having said that, they certainly weren’t at their best due to injuries and recalls but that’s about the only semi-recent basis for comparison that I can think of.

As for the lower-level leagues, I’m not even sure I could come up with a guess.  I can’t sit here and say I’ve seen enough (or anything) from some of those levels to even attempt to come up with a reasonable comparison.  Your guess would be as good as mine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what’s next for the Blackhawks, Mitch Marner trade suggestions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.  The final one from our recent call-out for questions will run this weekend.

Unclemike1526: The Hawks have two firsts and three seconds. Who are the best goalie prospects in this year’s field? Commesso played well in the playoffs against a good team. I have no faith in Stauber or Soderblom. Gajan is far away. Who can they draft to solidify the position? 2nd round is where goalies seem to end up going and their own 2nd-round-pick should be a high one. As for Davidson, he says he wants to start adding talent to win. Where do you think he adds? Thanks.

I’ll start with the standard caveat that I’m not much of a scout and when it comes to goalies, I’m even worse so take this with the requisite grain of salt.  I don’t think it’s a particularly strong field, to be honest.  Last year, we saw talk of a goalie possibly going in the first round, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case this time around.  Carter George, Mikhail Yegorov, and Eemil Vini are the more prominent netminders of this class.  When a question like this came out last year, I also added a darkhorse candidate so I’ll pick Ryerson Leenders for that spot.

You noted that the Blackhawks have a couple of quality goalie prospects already in Drew Commesso and Adam Gajan.  Both have NHL potential and were drafted in the top 50 in their respective drafts, going 46th and 35th respectively.  We also know that there’s a long development curve for netminders.  So is it really in Chicago’s best interest to go after a goalie with their top second-rounder (34th overall) when that goalie might not be ready until 2029 or 2030?  (Not to mention that picking one of those goalies would be a reach.)  Wouldn’t it be better to go with a skater who will probably be a top-20 to top-25 option on their board?  I’m not against them picking a goalie but I wouldn’t consider it until the third round at the earliest with the two promising ones they already have.

As for where GM Kyle Davidson is looking to add, I don’t think there’s really a positional target, so to speak.  Instead, I think it’s going to targeting specific veterans who will be fits in the room and raise the floor of this group.  If it’s a top-four defenseman, great.  If it’s three bottom-six guys that take some of the defensive pressure off the younger forwards, that would work too.  Having said that, if Davidson got his best-case addition, I think it’d be a top-six winger that’s signed for a couple of years to give Connor Bedard an upgraded running mate.  Basically, another Taylor Hall type of pickup, just one that hopefully won’t miss most of next season due to injury.

based: It looks like the Leafs and Marner both possibly may want to move on. How about to Philly? A team trading for him I assume would need a contract extension in place.

I’m not so sure there’s a mutual desire to move on between Toronto and Mitch Marner.  While management was non-committal about bringing the core back, Marner said that a goal of his was a contract extension from the Maple Leafs this summer.  I think if he got his way, he’d stick around.

But let’s talk about the fit in Philadelphia.  A lot would depend on where the Flyers feel they are in their rebuilding process.  I’m not convinced the season they just had will lead to them accelerating their timeline (and that’s probably a good thing long-term).  So is making a move for Marner the right thing to do?  I don’t think it’d be the worst idea if the price was right but this seems a bit early in the process for them to make that type of move.

Another challenge here is, as you noted, the need for a contract extension.  Trading for Marner as a straight-up rental makes no sense for them so a new deal would need to be in place.  I expect his will be a record-setting contract for a winger and I think the sweet spot is going to be around eight years and $100MM if you’re going to get him to sign now.  (That matches the cap percentage that Artemi Panarin got from the Rangers on the open market by design.)  Does Marner make sense on that contract in that market at this time?  That’d be a tough sell.

There’s also the matter of finding a viable trade return.  Even if we concede your premise that the Maple Leafs want to move on from Marner, they’re not just giving him away.  This is a legitimate top-line winger so the asking price would be high.  I expect Travis Konecny would be in there as part of a package which begs the question that if GM Daniel Briere wants to pony up for a winger, why not just lock up Konecny long-term at a lesser rate and keep the other trade assets in the fold?  If I’m choosing between that or acquiring Marner, I’m going with the former.

Jaysen: Your thoughts on a Marner for Saros trade, straight up? Potentially as a sign-and-trade for both?

Or if the above proposal is a no-go, maybe Marner to Chicago or to Utah? And yes, let’s pretend that Marner waives…

Finally, Toronto must make changes to the roster. I’m interested in what would be your most mind-blowing, no way, they did what scenario.

Thank you.

Starting with your trade proposal, I like it for Nashville, assuming it’s a double sign-and-trade.  Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future and if they can get a legitimate top-line winger for a starting goalie, that’s a whole lot better of a return than most starters fetch.

I’m less enthusiastic from Toronto’s point of view, however.  Juuse Saros will be entering his age-30 season when his next deal starts and has had the heaviest workload in terms of games played for the last three years.  That’s a bit concerning when you’re going to hand him a deal comparable to Connor Hellebuyck’s $8.5MM per season.  Yes, he’d certainly represent an upgrade but that’s a lot of offense to sacrifice to get it and a big amount to give up to keep him around.  My Plan A would be to aim a tier lower for a goalie upgrade where it wouldn’t take Marner going the other way even if you wind up moving Marner in a separate move later on.

As for Chicago and Utah being possible landing spots, assuming he waives his trade protection, they’re interesting ideas.  I have the same concern for the Blackhawks as I do for Philadelphia in that it might be early but if they think he’s the running mate for Connor Bedard, then I’d say it’s justifiable even if it is early.  Finding a win-now package going Toronto’s way would be tough, however.  Utah, meanwhile, should be exiting its rebuild and likely will be looking for a talent upgrade.  They have several quality young players they could couple with a win-now player (Nick Schmaltz stands out as an option) that could make for a compelling offer.

When I first saw the last part of this question, my initial thought was if Utah won the lottery, they dealt the first-overall pick for Auston Matthews, sending Matthews to the former Arizona team just after they left his hometown state.  But that’s not happening and San Jose certainly isn’t making that move with where they are.

But let’s stick with the premise.  If I’m picking the ‘no way’ type of move, you have to go big so I’d say it’s moving Matthews while making the decision to pivot to using William Nylander full-time down the middle.  That would lessen the need to get a win-now center coming the other way as they’d have him and John Tavares as their one-two options for next season.  As part of the return, the Leafs would get a young center with top-six potential that ideally would slide into that role the following year (or soon after if Tavares is re-signed at a lower rate).  But the key part of the package would be a legitimate number one defenseman.

If I were to ask who is the least likely of their core forwards to be moved, I think it’d be Matthews.  But in this pie-in-the-sky scenario, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander all refuse to waive their trade protection, resulting in them pivoting to Matthews and using him to fill a key need now, add a piece for the future, and bank on Nylander adapting to and thriving in the number one role.  That’d be a shocker to me.

Breakaway: I heard that Patrik Laine is selling his place in Columbus. He could be buying a new place but is most likely looking for a trade. Who do you think would be interested, what would the trade package look like and would Columbus need to retain some salary?

Notwithstanding the report about selling his house, it makes sense for both sides to have at least some interest in a change of scenery, assuming he’s cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.  Columbus hasn’t got much bang for their buck on his contract and as a result, Laine appears to be heading toward a sizable pay cut if he repeats the performance of the last two years.  In situations like this, a move makes a lot of sense for both sides…in theory, at least.

Here’s the problem for Columbus.  Laine’s trade value is probably at an all-time low right now.  Yes, there’s a longer-term track record of some success but he has 28 goals in the past two years combined, spanning just 73 games due to injuries and his entrance to the Assistance Program.  He also has a cap hit of $8.7MM and is owed $9.1MM in actual money for each of the two remaining years on his contract.  He also controls his destiny to a point with a ten-team no-trade list.

There are three options for them to consider, none of which are particularly ideal.  They can give him away for next to nothing simply to clear up the cap space and save on salary.  They can retain half the contract and receive a potentially halfway-decent return, maybe a reasonable draft pick (I’m thinking a second-rounder as I type this) and a middle-six forward.  Or, they can try to find another pricey short-term contract that isn’t going well for a team and try to make a swap with the rest of the package being determined by the difference in caliber of the player.  This last one is more theoretical as I don’t see a great fit at first glance.

If the Blue Jackets decide to just cut bait, Chicago makes a lot of sense; it would be a move just like the Hall trade from last summer.  Here’s a top-six player with a bit of upside on paper and a legitimate shooter to work with Bedard.  If things go well, he’s the type of player I could see them extending.  But again, like Hall, the return would be negligible; they’d have to have a plan in place to utilize the cost savings.

If they want to retain money and make more of a hockey trade, Seattle stands out at first glance.  GM Ron Francis might prefer the shorter-term option over a free agent acquisition and if Laine is healthy, he’d be an intriguing fit in a Kraken lineup that needs more firepower.  To make the money work, someone like Brian Dumoulin could go the other way with the draft pick or equivalent prospect.  I also like Utah’s fit here.  They have money to spend and at 26, Laine is a young enough veteran to fit in with their group.  The matching money part isn’t as easy but probably isn’t needed; a deal based on draft and prospect capital should work for them and we know they have plenty of both.

Whoever Columbus hires as GM will have options when it comes to trading Laine if they decide to go that route.  But whichever way they go, the return will pale in comparison to what they gave up to get him in the first place.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some discussion about the playoffs, what New Jersey’s big-game hunting could look like in the coming weeks, and much more.  With all the questions submitted, we’ll break it into three columns between now and next weekend so if yours doesn’t appear here, check back in one of those pieces.

schwa: Few questions here:

What was the biggest surprise to you in the first round?
What’s your favorite matchup for the second?
What potential matchup excites you most for CFs / SCF?

There weren’t a lot of surprises for me in the first round but Winnipeg flaming out would be the biggest.  While I had concerns that their core group – one that has been more miss than hit in the postseason – could sustain a long run, I thought they really had a chance to get past Colorado, especially with Alexandar Georgiev struggling mightily down the stretch.  But the Avs picked them apart and made it look easy which is hard to do to a team that put up 110 points in the regular season.  While I had the Jets winning, the fact the Avalanche did isn’t the biggest surprise.  But how they did it was something I wasn’t expecting.

Going into the round, it was Colorado and Dallas and that hasn’t changed.  The Stars are one of the most balanced teams in the league but had the toughest first-round battle.  They can match the Avalanche talent-wise but are they going to wear down as this series went on with how hard the Vegas matchup was?  These are two of the top teams in the NHL but that question is going to linger for me.

For Conference Final matchups, I think Edmonton and Colorado would be intriguing just for the potential for some back-and-forth, high-octane hockey that we don’t typically see that deep into the playoffs.  In the East, it looks like the Rangers are coming out of the Metropolitan and if I’m picking for what might be the more interesting series from a watching perspective, it’d be Florida.  Then, for the Cup Final, the Avs and Rangers.  If I was predicting what was going to happen, that’s probably not where I’d go but those would be some compelling series.

Nha Trang: Will the numerous pundits who predicted that the Bruins were going to go down in the biggest first-round upset enjoy the crow they’re being served, or will they collectively pretend they never made such a prediction and hope people have forgotten?

While we didn’t publish our picks, I’ll be up front and say I had Toronto winning that series.  It wasn’t my biggest upset prediction (Nashville over Vancouver which also didn’t pan out was) but I thought the Maple Leafs would be able to score enough to get through this round and then fall to Florida again.  Frankly, it was a close enough series on paper heading in that I don’t think many would have had that as their biggest upset.

As to your question, I’m sure some will try to pretend they didn’t pick it but that’s the beauty of internet archiving; anyone who posted their picks has those picks saved somewhere.  But collectively, no, I don’t think there would have been any group effort to deny the existence of those selections.

Besides, it’s not as if the Bruins ran away with that series.  It took seven games and three attempts to clinch it with the winning goal coming in overtime.  It was a pretty tightly played series overall so if you’re hoping to see some ‘I was wrong about the Bruins’ comments, they might have to get a little deeper into the postseason and win a bit more convincingly.

Cla23: Do you see Sean Monahan signing long-term with the Jets?

Do you see coach Bowness sign an extension or will he choose to retire and spend his time with his beautiful wife? After the scary year they had on a personal/health level.

If he retires, is it Scott Arniel’s time to be head coach?

When it comes to Monahan, a lot of it is going to revolve around what he’s looking for.  Is he looking to go to a contender?  Is he looking to maximize money?  Will the term of the contract be the top priority?  If he wants a longer-term deal, I think Winnipeg would have a very good chance at keeping him.  Monahan had a strong start to the year with Montreal and fit in quite well following the trade.  He fits on that roster as it’s currently constructed and Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff might be more inclined to offer up a longer-term agreement (despite his injury history) knowing it isn’t always easy attracting talent to Winnipeg.  If Monahan gets the term and at least close to the money he’s looking for, I could see him sticking around.

That said, if he wants to go try to play for a contender and is willing to take another short-term deal at a lesser rate to make that happen, then that probably pushes Winnipeg out of things.  We’ll see what his top priority will be for his next contract soon enough.

Obviously, we now know the answer to the Bowness question as he announced his retirement soon after this question was posed.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise to me for the reasons you noted in the question; this was the logical and expected outcome.

As for Arniel, the question I ask myself is this – is he getting any attention for the other vacancies around the league?  While teams don’t exactly divulge this information, it doesn’t seem like it at first glance.  So if Arniel isn’t garnering head coaching attention elsewhere, should he really be up for the top job with the Jets?  I think he’s a safe short-term pick and might be the favorite to land the role but all else being equal, he wouldn’t be my first choice, especially for a team that’s built to try to win now.  I’d be looking for a veteran who might have a shorter shelf life but a proven track record of getting quick results.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Devils said they are going “big-game hunting” this offseason.
Let’s apply this to both the coach and 1A goalie.
Who do they get? Realistically.

Is there a big-game type of coach out there?  Of the coaches that are currently available, is there a true headliner?  In terms of experience and success, it’s probably Joel Quenneville who may or may not be eligible to coach again.  Todd McLellan and Gerard Gallant qualify more as retreads at this point than big-name guys.  Craig Berube would be next but I could see him landing in Toronto.

If I was picking their next coach, I’d swing for upside.  As a result, I’d go right off the board for the coach (when it comes to who has been linked for the position) and pick Jay Leach as their new bench boss.  He’s paid his dues as an assistant and head coach in the minors and now three years as an assistant in Seattle.  He finished up his playing career in New Jersey’s organization as well so there’s a bit of familiarity with the market which helps.  In terms of ‘upside’ for a coach, he’d be near the top of the list so if they take a big swing, maybe it’s for upside over experience.  Having said that, you asked who I think they’ll get, not who I’d pick so for who I think they get, I’ll go with Jay Woodcroft, someone who might still have a perception as a coach with a bit of upside given that he’s still early on in his coaching career.

As for the goalie situation, I think they wind up with Jacob Markstrom.  It sounded like some of the money-related hurdles had been cleared closer to the deadline so if they rekindle talks at that point, they should be able to get something done.  Calgary’s asking price will probably have to come down given the other netminders that many expect to be available and that will help bridge the gap that existed when talks broke down in March.

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