PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of our mailbag include several draft questions, where Trevor Zegras might be playing next year, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from last weekend.  There will be one more that runs on Monday.

UncleMike1526: Who should be the one player, be it trade, UFA signing, or RFA signing the Blackhawks should target this offseason?

I’ll go with Jake Guentzel here.  Not only is he one of the top free agents available but he doesn’t cost anything but cap space to bring in.  (Unless Chicago were to trade for his negotiating rights, then it’d be a mid-round pick which isn’t a big deal for them.)  They’re at the point now where they need to start adding pieces and while he alone won’t turn around their fortunes for next season, getting a quality scorer for free (or close to it) would be great.

I also put some value in the success he had with Sidney Crosby.  It’s not as easy as some think to keep up with elite players so finding someone that could ride shotgun with Connor Bedard isn’t as easy as it seems.  Getting someone who has spent the majority of the last several years in that type of role would be the perfect fit to work with Bedard.  It might not be an easy sell considering there will be plenty of playoff-contending teams that will have interest but that would be a great outcome for them.

You mention an RFA signing in your question but an offer sheet would not be advisable for them.  If they’re signing someone of consequence, it’s going to cost them at least one first-round pick.  Those picks are unprotected and considering that one player alone isn’t going to make a big difference, I’m not sure they should be running the risk of losing what could be a fairly high lottery pick a year from now.

jminn: If Chicago takes Artyom Levshunov second overall, who do you think the Ducks will take? They’ve said they need both a right-handed defenseman and a right-handed wing. Do they attempt to get that at number three or take the guy they think is the best available player even though they’re loaded with left-handed defenders?

If it’s me in charge, I’d go with Ivan Demidov.  There is a bit of risk considering he was playing at a lower level but he might be the most skilled player left on the board.  Anaheim is still at a point where they should be looking to add firepower to their quickly improving forward group and getting a possible front-line winger to go with their young centers would be great.

But it’s not me in charge, it’s Pat Verbeek.  He has certainly put an emphasis on size and grit and Anton Silayev could be that type of unicorn defender that rarely comes around.  Even though he doesn’t have the offensive upside that several other blueliners do, players with his profile that can play at a high level don’t come around too often.

Yes, the Ducks have ample left-side depth on the back end.  But they don’t have anyone like Silayev.  He’s someone who could be that key shutdown defender who kills penalties and plays in late-game defensive situations, basically being the perfect complementary piece to Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger on the left side.  Watching these playoffs, Silayev could be a significant difference-maker and that’s why I think they’ll view him as the BPA and add him to their already-deep prospect pool.

GBear: Draft question!

Assuming the Preds are looking for a forward who is a drive-the-play type player, who would you be looking at as likely available at the #22 spot at the draft? I’m leaning towards Sacha Boisvert, fwiw.

This is probably a good time for my annual reminder that I’m not a scout by any stretch of the imagination so I’m relying solely on second-hand info as a result.  Boisvert seems like a good fit in that range.  I wonder about Igor Chernyshov falling into that range as well.  He has that power forward-type of profile but we’ve seen some Russian-born players slip in recent years and if he does, he could fall into Nashville’s laps.

I don’t know if he necessarily fits the profile you’re hoping for but the other player that comes to mind for them if they’re going for a forward is Andrew Basha.  He is a bit smaller but is a strong puck carrier who could drive the play while being an all-situations player.  He’s the type of complementary player that I could see GM Barry Trotz showing some interest in him and that’s in the range that some think Basha will land in.

jminn: Do you think Carter Yakemchuk is NHL-ready or does he need AHL seasoning?

Offensively, I think Yakemchuk could hold his own in the NHL next season and that’s a compliment.  His shot is a considerable weapon and he doesn’t hesitate to get involved in the rush; that’s something teams could work with.  Physically, he has a frame where he might be able to stick as well.  But on the whole, no, I don’t think he’s ready to play at the top level just yet.

One of the big knocks on him is his skating.  That’s something that pro teams will exploit pretty quickly.  In general, his defensive game needs some work.  Part of that can be fixed with skating improvements but he needs reps against easier competition to start developing some better habits on that end.  I think he’d be overwhelmed if exposed to NHL-level players on an extended basis.  Most blueliners would; there’s a reason why there are very few 18-year-old defenders in the NHL.

I’ll also clarify that Yakemchuk isn’t eligible to play in the AHL next season.  As a CHL-based player, it’s NHL or bust for him.  He’s not eligible to play in the minors on a full-time basis until 2026-27.  Unless his defensive game and skating improve considerably over the next couple of years, he could certainly benefit from time in that level as well to shore up that side of his game before getting regular NHL minutes.  That’s a pretty standard development curve for most rearguards and I think it’s probably the best one for him as well.

@SamToo22: Where does Trevor Zegras end up?

One of the challenges of finding the right fit for Zegras (if he’s moved at all) is trying to figure out what it is they want.  I expect they’ll be active in free agency again this summer as they look to add veteran pieces to help position themselves toward moving past their rebuild.  But having said that, it would surprise me if they were interested in moving Zegras for that veteran type of piece; I think they’ll want someone (or something) with considerable club control.  That takes some potential suitors off the table.

On the flip side, having been rebuilding for basically six years now, a strictly futures-based return probably isn’t going to fly either.  Sure, a high draft pick could be part of a package but there needs to be someone that isn’t years away from being an impact NHL player.  This element might not reduce any suitors but it puts more limitations on the types of offers that could be made.

Montreal has been suggested as a possible fit.  They’ve moved younger players and draft picks at the last couple of drafts for more win-now help and they have a fairly deep prospect pool and some young roster players that could be appealing.  If he went there, it wouldn’t surprise me.

But my pick is Utah.  It’s the same general idea as Montreal in that they have a draft pick surplus, a strong group of prospects, and some younger roster pieces that can help Anaheim in the near future.  Like many, I expect Utah to take a swing or two this summer and go after someone like Zegras who is young enough that he can be a part of the younger core group they already have.  They certainly could use some help down the middle and an influx of offensive talent so if Zegras winds up moving, Utah is my guess at a landing spot.

Gmm8811: So let’s talk about CapFriendly… where are we gonna go now to find that kind of information? Maybe your site will expand its content? Also, any updates on what is going on with the players involved in the Hockey Canada mess?

jminn: Why didn’t the NHL buy CF? Daly and his chimp sleeping at the wheel.

Losing cap sites is something I’ve been accustomed to over the years.  I remember about 20 years ago when there weren’t any sites but rather a mailing list with an Excel spreadsheet (which took quite a while to get onto, might I add) that had contract info but not cap tracking.  Teams have taken over cap sites before and we’ve been fortunate enough to have new ones pop up quickly.  Fortunately, we don’t have to wait for a new one this time as PuckPedia has been up and running for several years now.  Meanwhile, as Josh Erickson noted in a reply to this question in the callout, we are looking into some options as well but obviously there’s nothing to report on that front.

As to why the NHL didn’t take over the site, they are steadfastly against salary disclosure.  I remember Gary Bettman saying in the past that he didn’t think there was much demand for this information; it came a day or two after the cap site at the time crashed due to too many visitors putting too much strain on the site’s server.  We’ve learned since Washington’s purchase was announced that the league wasn’t too thrilled about the existence and popularity of CapFriendly so the last thing they were going to do was amplify it by folding it into their own site.  If anything, I suspect there were some cheers from the league office when it came out that a team was buying it and getting CapFriendly out of the public domain.

Meanwhile, regarding the Hockey Canada situation, TSN’s Rick Westhead relayed last week (Twitter link) that a trial date won’t be set until mid-August while the earliest a trial could happen would probably be April 2025 and that the proceedings could take at least two months.  Accordingly, there isn’t going to be much news on that front for a while yet.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Jacob Trouba’s future with the Rangers, Patrik Laine’s situation in Columbus, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, we’ll have two more of these columns between now and next weekend so watch for it in one of those.

@JJFlip1995: What is the likelihood that the Bruins trade Ullmark and what is a likely return from said trade?

GM Don Sweeney has made it clear that he’d love to keep both netminders.  I think he’s speaking truthfully about that desire.  But I would be absolutely stunned if it actually happened.  Jeremy Swayman is heading for a pricey long-term contract which would push Boston’s spending on goaltenders near the top of the NHL.  Given that they have some needs to fill while having some rare spending flexibility this summer, I’m not sure that spending big between the pipes is the best way to do it.  It’ll help during the regular season but come playoff time, we saw how little having Ullmark as a high-end second option mattered.

As for a return, I don’t think it’s going to be a huge one.  With what’s believed to be multiple other veteran starters available this summer, the market isn’t going to be too strong beyond the top option (and that’s not Ullmark).  I don’t see the high-end picks being in play over the next couple of weeks.

A lot will depend on if the Bruins are taking a contract back as part of the swap.  If they’re just moving him straight up, they might get a late first-round pick and even that might be on the high side if other dominoes fall first.  I think their preference might be to try to swap Ullmark for a skater to fill one of their other holes with a minimal cap effect.  At that point, you’re probably looking at a second-pairing defender or a second-line winger.  If they can do that and then back-fill with Brandon Bussi taking over behind Swayman, that would be a solid outcome for them.

@RamonesFan41: Who will the Rangers buy out? Trouba, Goodrow, or someone else???

Can I pick none of the above?  I don’t think they buy out anyone, to be honest.

I’ll talk a bit more about Trouba shortly but a buyout costs them $4MM for the next two years and then $2MM for two more years after that.  Can the Rangers get a better defenseman for $4MM or less?  I don’t think they can.  So if you’re not able to upgrade that position, why buy him out and make the team worse?  He didn’t have a great playoff showing but he can still be a contributor so I don’t think they even consider the possibility of a buyout for him.

As for Barclay Goodrow, you could sell me on the idea, at least.  The buyout price tag isn’t crazy.  They’d have a cap credit next season of $200K followed by a $1MM cap charge in 2025-26 before ballooning to a $3.5MM charge in 2026-27.  From there, it’s a little over $1.1MM for three more years.  If they need extra money now, they could buy him out and pre-spend some of the expected cap increase in 2026-27 to cover the higher cost at that time.

But Goodrow is coming off a strong postseason showing where he was one of their leaders in goals with six.  He’s a player who is more effective in the playoffs and I think some might suggest they need more of those players, not less.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they bought him out but I’m leaning no right now.

Looking at the rest of the roster, I don’t see a viable candidate.  If they have reservations about Filip Chytil being able to stay healthy moving forward, they could try to buy him out at one-third of the cost but with the concussion issues he had, I suspect that’s a grievance waiting to happen.  That’s really about it for options so I don’t expect them to go that route in the next couple of weeks.

met man: Do the Rangers stand pat or make moves to improve the team via trades or free agent signings?

With a little over $9MM in cap room per CapFriendly, New York has enough cap space to re-sign Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider and round out the roster so they don’t have to necessarily do anything.  They wouldn’t be able to do much else but starting next season with the bulk of this core intact isn’t a bad way to go.  We are, after all, talking about the team that had the most points during the regular season so it’s a good group.

Kaapo Kakko feels like a possible trade chip even with his new deal.  Maybe there’s a winger at a similar price tag that they feel is a better fit on the roster or if they want a free agent in that price range, perhaps you look at moving him for a draft pick.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they looked at some lower-cost free agents as well.  In general, I expect a fairly quiet offseason from them.

But if it were up to me, I’d look to try to go into next season with a couple million in cap space.  They have some waiver-exempt players who could be shuffled back and forth on off days to add to that amount.  Maintaining that to the trade deadline is worth around $9MM to $10MM in full-season salaries, giving them the ability to add multiple players.  If they make a move now, it probably caps them out.  I’d rather try to get two pieces in-season than one during the summer, especially on a team that is already somewhat of a contender.

Schwa: Do you see the Rangers moving on from Trouba? What could you see as the additional assets given to get him off the books?

Maybe a team like Utah could be a fit given they have no D under contract for next season. $8MM for two seasons isn’t too bad for a team to get a physical player who offers leadership. They need to spend some money and he likely won’t provide a cap crunch for them by the time the contract expires.

Let’s talk about Trouba a bit more now.  As I already noted earlier, I don’t see a buyout happening.  It’s fair to say that he underachieved this season and that doesn’t help his short-term trade value.  Neither does an $8MM price tag.  Yes, two years remaining makes it more manageable but how many teams can realistically afford that?  Perhaps more importantly, how many good teams can afford that?

You identified Utah as a possible landing spot and your logic is certainly sound.  That’s definitely a team that could benefit from a shorter-term veteran add to try to stabilize things and they can certainly afford the contract.  But they’re not a playoff team.  Trouba has a 15-team no-trade clause as of July 1st (with a full no-move before then).  Personally, I think it stands to reason that he’d have some non-playoff teams on that list which probably takes Chicago and San Jose, other weaker teams with ample cap room, off the table as well.

If you look at the list of playoff teams this year that can probably afford to take on an $8MM contract without it materially affecting what else they might try to do this summer, Nashville comes to mind.  The problem is they might be the only team on that list.

Without many viable options for a cap dump, they might have to look at trying to move him for another player.  But in doing that, they’re mitigating the cap savings and if I’m being honest, I don’t think they’d get the best player in the move.  If you’re a contender, how much is it worth it to take a lesser player back (one that won’t log 20-plus minutes a night on the right side of the back end) and only get a bit of cap savings?  That doesn’t seem like a great idea to me.  Never say never but I think he stays put.

frozenaquatic: Panarin straight up for Marner. NTCs notwithstanding, who says no? Fills organizational holes for each, and opens up first-line LW for Lafreniere. Panarin’s a little better but Marner is a little younger. Similar contracts.

Trouba to Hockey Club Sibir Novosibirsk Oblast for two pucks and a mouthguard. Who says no? The mouthguard?

I think we’ve covered Trouba more than enough by now but let’s talk about the first proposal.  In a vacuum, I don’t dislike the offer for either side; your quick logic makes sense.  I do think both sides would say no, however.

From Toronto’s perspective, the idea of trading Mitch Marner would be to change up the composition of their roster.  Maybe it’s for a prominent blueliner, a power forward, a future center to possibly replace John Tavares, or a combination of the three.  Artemi Panarin does none of that.  He gets them an extra year of club control at a slightly higher price tag which isn’t nothing but that’s not the type of roster shakeup I think they’d be looking to do.

Meanwhile, for the Rangers, while they save a bit of money for next season, it could cost them considerably for 2025-26.  If they can’t re-sign Marner, then they’ve lost a year of a player who just put up 120 points.  And if they can re-sign him, it’s probably going to be at a price tag that’s higher than Panarin’s which could be notable as they potentially look to reshape their roster.  Having said that, I think they’d be the likelier of the two teams to say yes even though I think they’d say no in the end.

PyramidHeadcrab: Since hindsight is 20/20, who won the Tkachuk-Huberdeau trade? I gotta imagine Florida wins that one by a mile, but can we prove it with numbers? I distinctly remember the Florida fanbase having an absolute meltdown, “Tkachuk is just a mid power forward without Gaudreau!” But in watching this guy the past couple years, I personally think he’s become my favourite player since Paul Kariya.

Still gotta get me a Kariya #9 Ducks jersey…

And speaking of the other casualty of Calgary’s cap crunch, what does Johnny Gaudreau need to be successful going forward in Columbus?

Right now, it’s Florida by a considerable margin in that trade.  Matthew Tkachuk has outscored both Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar combined since the swap (197 points to 190) and makes $7.25MM less.  I think that’s all the numbers that are really needed.

Tkachuk has proven himself to be a legitimate top-line power forward whose style fits in perfectly with a grittier group that the Panthers have.  And while a $9.75MM price tag certainly isn’t cheap, he’d get considerably more than that if he was hitting the open market next month.

Meanwhile, Huberdeau has struggled immensely under two different head coaches now over his first two years in Calgary.  He’s one of the highest-paid wingers in the league and is producing like a second-liner with two years of a little over 50 points.  That can’t be spun as a positive.  They need a whole lot more from him and barring an influx of offensive talent, I’m not sure he can be counted on to produce anywhere close to the level he was with Florida.

I will say this, however.  Weegar had a great season, scoring 20 goals and 52 points while logging nearly 23 minutes a night.  He’s a legitimate top-pairing player and at $6.25MM on a long-term deal, they’ll get some good value out of that for a while, either with the Flames or as part of a trade if they opt for a rebuild.

It’s hard to say Florida will lose this deal, especially if they’re able to close things out against Edmonton.  Right now, it looks pretty lopsided but if Huberdeau can return to a top-line level, Calgary could still do relatively well here.

As for Gaudreau, he needs higher-end linemates.  Boone Jenner is a very good center, one of the more underrated ones even.  But he’s not a true top-line option, especially offensively.  A well-rounded offensive middleman to play off of would make a big difference.  I think they have that in their system, it’s just a matter of getting Adam Fantilli more development time.  In an ideal world, a big winger on the other side to do some of the board work would also help.  So, too, would a more free-flowing system.  In other words, Gaudreau needs a lot to go right if he wants to get back to the point-per-game level.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the year that was for Nashville, what the Flyers could look to do this summer, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our past two mailbag columns.

SkidRowe: Given this year’s group of UFAs, who would you sign if you only have $11MM to spend and you need a top-six forward and a left shot defenseman?

This is a question that can have a lot of different answers based on team needs.  Is there a need for an impactful top-four left-shot blueliner which could cost half of that amount or more or do they only need a depth piece, freeing up more money for the forward?  Does that team need a center more than a winger?  As a result, I could come up with a lot of viable answers depending on those needs.  But let’s focus on a couple of scenarios.

If my team has a couple of top-four left-shot options already and I’m looking to go a bit cheaper on the blueline and spend more up front, I’m targeting Oliver Kylington.  He had 31 points in 2021-22, his last full NHL season.  He was more limited this year after returning so a cut from his $2.5MM is certainly possible, especially if it’s a short-term deal.  At 27 (as of today) and with his last full season being a good one, I think he’s going to be one of the better low-cost upside plays, giving me lots of room to spend on the forward.  Failing that, if that team wants some extra firepower, I’d kick the tires on Erik Gustafsson, a player who produces some points but causes enough goals the other way to keep his price tag low.

What’s left after signing Kylington should be enough to shop towards the upper tier of the market.  We’re not in Sam Reinhart territory but if Kylington comes in around $2MM, that should be enough for Jake Guentzel or Steven Stamkos should he not come to terms with Tampa Bay.  The back end of Guentzel’s deal might be iffy – long-term agreements like that often are – but it’d be hard to pass up a shot at an impact scorer.

Now, if the team needs a top-four guy, things change.  It’s not a great market for impactful left-shot blueliners.  There’s Brady Skjei and well, that’s about it.  Shayne Gostisbehere scores enough to be a top-four guy but if you’re looking for a 20-minute-plus minutes-eater, he’s not that player.  Among lefties, only Skjei is.  That will push his price tag past the $6MM mark, potentially closer to $7MM if there winds up being a big market for his services.

That means I don’t have much left up front so I need to get creative and shoot for some upside.  Chandler Stephenson could be nice but it’s iffy that there’s enough left for him.  What does the medical testing about Patrick Kane say?  If the team doctors say he’s likely to hold up, would a multi-year deal for what’s left represent enough of a commitment?  Would a one-year deal for what’s left with some incentives (which can be applied if needed on the 2025-26 books) do it?  Sean Monahan might also fit in this price range as some teams will be scared off with his injury history.  If I need to pay up to get Skjei, I might need to get creative to try to get an impact top-six forward as well.

GBear: What was the point of the Preds 2023/24 season? They’ll once again pick outside the top 20 in the draft and got booted in the first round of the playoffs again, being led mostly by veteran-age players. Aren’t they just doing what they always have in the past despite saying they didn’t want to be in the mushy middle any longer?

It’s definitely a fair question to ask.  I’ll be honest, I didn’t see Nashville as a playoff team heading into the season.  I thought this was going to be a culture-setting season with a new front office, a new coach, and new leaders.  They’d set the tone and foundation to move forward from and if they made the playoffs, that was just an added bonus.  I wouldn’t be shocked if management sees it this way as well.

But you’re absolutely right in saying that they basically wound up where they’d been before when all is said and done.  They’re not really closer to necessarily contending, nor are they going to be able to bring in a top prospect based on where they’re drafting.  Framed that way, yeah, it was a bit of a ‘tires spinning in the mud’ type of year.

If you’re looking for a positive takeaway from this season, it might be this – the floor of the roster is better than most anticipated.  Nashville has ample cap space this summer to go out and try to add a couple of impact players.  If they hand the starting job to Yaroslav Askarov and move Juuse Saros (more on that idea shortly), they might even have enough for a third impact piece.  Add that to the floor this group showed and that could be enough to create a group that could have some damage although being in a division with Dallas, Colorado, and Winnipeg certainly doesn’t help things.

tigers22 2: What package of picks and players would the Red Wings need to give up to get Saros?

There are some teams where acquiring and extending Saros makes a lot of sense.  I’m not sure Detroit is one of them.  Sebastian Cossa is viewed as their goalie of the future and there’s little reason to assume they’re starting to second-guess that.  He’s a couple of years away but that’s perfectly fine for a 21-year-old.  But if he’s their guy moving forward, extending Saros on a long-term deal at a cap hit over $8MM is going to block Cossa.  And as their young core group gets more expensive (Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are up for pricey deals this summer), if they can avoid another pricey long-term pact, it’ll give them more flexibility moving forward.

However, adding Saros as a rental player for next season does make some sense for them.  Detroit is at the point where they need to start getting their core group some playoff experience.  We think back to the long playoff streak they had but they haven’t made it once since then; they’ve missed eight years in a row.  Something has to give sooner than later and GM Steve Yzerman knows it.  With goaltending being a big issue, perhaps getting Saros in to shore that up would be enough to get them back into the postseason.  From there, then they can get a better sense of what they’re going to need moving forward.  Even as a short-term addition, I think that’s worthwhile.

As for the cost, the Preds were believed to have a very high asking price to move him at the trade deadline.  With the other goalies that could be in play, I think they’re going to have to lower that.  And if Detroit doesn’t want to sign Saros to an extension as part of the deal, that should lower the price tag as well.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way and say that Ville Husso ($4.5MM for next season) needs to go the other way to match money.  I could see Nashville being more interested in players than picks, however.  I could see Michael Rasmussen being someone they ask for, a middle-six forward with some control.  I also think they’d ask for a young blueliner although if they were to get Rasmussen, they wouldn’t be able to ask for a top youngster.  But William Wallinder, an early second-round pick back in 2020, might be someone they want.  He’s still a year or two away but that’s better than a junior-aged prospect or draft pick that’d even be farther away.

If Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom, and even John Gibson are all on the block this summer, it’s going to make it hard for the Preds to get a first-round pick and another key piece or two.  A package like this, one that gives them some pieces that would help now (especially if Husso can get back to the level he was with St. Louis) and down the road, might be enough to get Saros as a pure rental.  But if several teams want to acquire and extend him, the asking price might get out of Detroit’s range.

Emoney123: With Fedotov and Ersson set in goal, what happens to Hart [RFA]? Who should the Flyers add with Michkov to mentor/develop into a scorer and playoff team?

With Carter Hart being a restricted free agent, the Flyers would have to issue him a $4.479MM qualifying offer to retain his rights.  He’s a year away from UFA eligibility which is particularly noteworthy considering it doesn’t sound like the court case will be held anytime soon.  Even if the offer was issued to retain his rights, chances are he’d be an unrestricted free agent by the time he potentially becomes eligible to play again depending on how the case plays out.  With that in mind, there’s no real benefit to tendering him so chances are he’ll go unqualified next month.

I touched on this a bit in Friday’s mailbag but are the Flyers at the point where they can say the rebuild is over and it’s time to add pieces to get into the playoffs?  This is a team that went into last year with a roster that looked nowhere near playoff-caliber and then, while in a playoff spot, sold.  After collapsing down the stretch, is that going to be the trigger point to say it’s time to go for it?  I don’t think so; they’re not there yet even with how the season went.  So I’m not sure they’re going to be too active in terms of trying to add pieces to become a playoff team.

If they can get Matvei Michkov over early (and it looks like this could happen), the idea of a mentor makes some sense in theory but I have to admit, finding the right fit is harder than I thought.  I don’t think the Flyers are going to be shopping at the top end of the free agent pool which takes some of the more prominent names off the table.

Vladimir Tarasenko stands out as a fit among the secondary pieces, however.  As an offensive player, he had to become a better defensive player in recent years which should help under a coach like John Tortorella.  Meanwhile, the Senators liked his off-ice value in a younger room before moving him at the trade deadline so he could have that same type of benefit for his fellow countryman.  After free agency didn’t go well last time around, a multi-year commitment at a small raise from the $5MM he made this year might get it done which is a price tag they can afford by going into LTIR.  I’d go with him as a veteran to try to add to work with Michkov.

Unclemike1526: Any chance the Hawks can move from 2 to 1? Thanks.

San Jose has already made it clear that they intend to take Macklin Celebrini, someone who they quite likely view as a foundational piece.  More importantly, he’s a foundational center, allowing them to have a strong future one-two punch with him and Will Smith down the middle.  Given how hard it is to find a middleman with that type of value, that makes it a lot harder for the Sharks to move that pick.  They’d want a foundational center in return.  The Blackhawks have one but it’s safe to say they’re not moving him.

Chicago can make a compelling offer to San Jose, certainly more compelling than probably any other team can.  If they offered up the second pick and, say, Frank Nazar, that’s a pretty solid offer.  But I don’t see Sharks GM Mike Grier biting at it and it won’t be a matter of adding extra lesser pieces to make the difference.  When you have a chance to get a franchise fixture down the middle, it’s almost impossible to pass up.

PyramidHeadcrab: It’s generally suggested that the KHL is the second-best professional hockey league in the world, but how competitive would a complete KHL team be if they were to compete in the NHL?

Additionally: How do the major European leagues (KHL, SHL, Liiga, German Elite League, etc.) compare to the North American pro game? Are they more on par with the AHL? ECHL?

And if we really wanna get spicy… What level would pro leagues in countries like Australia, Japan, and United Kingdom be comparable to?

While the reputation of the KHL has been that it’s the second-best league, I don’t think that’s the case anymore as there has been a drop-off in talent in recent years.  To answer your first question, I don’t think the typical KHL team would have much success at all in the NHL.  Even if you look at the roster and stats of the reigning champions Metallurg Magnitogorsk, I don’t see that franchise giving many teams a run for their money most nights.  They’d win some games, sure, but they’d probably be a strong candidate for the top spot in the draft lottery.

I’d have the SHL as the second-best league out there now by a narrow margin.  But again, those teams wouldn’t put up much of a fight against a typical NHL squad.  Now, against an average AHL squad, now we’re talking.  Teams from that league, or the KHL, or even Liiga I think would hold their own.  Maybe some Swiss teams as well as that league has picked up in terms of competitiveness lately.  Meanwhile, for the DEL and ICEHL (Germany and Austria), they’re not quite at that level so I suppose they’d be closer to the ECHL and even that might be a little generous.

As a random aside, back in 2013, AHL Rochester was invited to participate in the Spengler Cup, an international tournament featuring some club teams from various leagues.  The Amerks didn’t fare well (going 0-3) in that event and an AHL squad hasn’t been invited back since.  Having said that, they certainly weren’t at their best due to injuries and recalls but that’s about the only semi-recent basis for comparison that I can think of.

As for the lower-level leagues, I’m not even sure I could come up with a guess.  I can’t sit here and say I’ve seen enough (or anything) from some of those levels to even attempt to come up with a reasonable comparison.  Your guess would be as good as mine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what’s next for the Blackhawks, Mitch Marner trade suggestions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.  The final one from our recent call-out for questions will run this weekend.

Unclemike1526: The Hawks have two firsts and three seconds. Who are the best goalie prospects in this year’s field? Commesso played well in the playoffs against a good team. I have no faith in Stauber or Soderblom. Gajan is far away. Who can they draft to solidify the position? 2nd round is where goalies seem to end up going and their own 2nd-round-pick should be a high one. As for Davidson, he says he wants to start adding talent to win. Where do you think he adds? Thanks.

I’ll start with the standard caveat that I’m not much of a scout and when it comes to goalies, I’m even worse so take this with the requisite grain of salt.  I don’t think it’s a particularly strong field, to be honest.  Last year, we saw talk of a goalie possibly going in the first round, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case this time around.  Carter George, Mikhail Yegorov, and Eemil Vini are the more prominent netminders of this class.  When a question like this came out last year, I also added a darkhorse candidate so I’ll pick Ryerson Leenders for that spot.

You noted that the Blackhawks have a couple of quality goalie prospects already in Drew Commesso and Adam Gajan.  Both have NHL potential and were drafted in the top 50 in their respective drafts, going 46th and 35th respectively.  We also know that there’s a long development curve for netminders.  So is it really in Chicago’s best interest to go after a goalie with their top second-rounder (34th overall) when that goalie might not be ready until 2029 or 2030?  (Not to mention that picking one of those goalies would be a reach.)  Wouldn’t it be better to go with a skater who will probably be a top-20 to top-25 option on their board?  I’m not against them picking a goalie but I wouldn’t consider it until the third round at the earliest with the two promising ones they already have.

As for where GM Kyle Davidson is looking to add, I don’t think there’s really a positional target, so to speak.  Instead, I think it’s going to targeting specific veterans who will be fits in the room and raise the floor of this group.  If it’s a top-four defenseman, great.  If it’s three bottom-six guys that take some of the defensive pressure off the younger forwards, that would work too.  Having said that, if Davidson got his best-case addition, I think it’d be a top-six winger that’s signed for a couple of years to give Connor Bedard an upgraded running mate.  Basically, another Taylor Hall type of pickup, just one that hopefully won’t miss most of next season due to injury.

based: It looks like the Leafs and Marner both possibly may want to move on. How about to Philly? A team trading for him I assume would need a contract extension in place.

I’m not so sure there’s a mutual desire to move on between Toronto and Mitch Marner.  While management was non-committal about bringing the core back, Marner said that a goal of his was a contract extension from the Maple Leafs this summer.  I think if he got his way, he’d stick around.

But let’s talk about the fit in Philadelphia.  A lot would depend on where the Flyers feel they are in their rebuilding process.  I’m not convinced the season they just had will lead to them accelerating their timeline (and that’s probably a good thing long-term).  So is making a move for Marner the right thing to do?  I don’t think it’d be the worst idea if the price was right but this seems a bit early in the process for them to make that type of move.

Another challenge here is, as you noted, the need for a contract extension.  Trading for Marner as a straight-up rental makes no sense for them so a new deal would need to be in place.  I expect his will be a record-setting contract for a winger and I think the sweet spot is going to be around eight years and $100MM if you’re going to get him to sign now.  (That matches the cap percentage that Artemi Panarin got from the Rangers on the open market by design.)  Does Marner make sense on that contract in that market at this time?  That’d be a tough sell.

There’s also the matter of finding a viable trade return.  Even if we concede your premise that the Maple Leafs want to move on from Marner, they’re not just giving him away.  This is a legitimate top-line winger so the asking price would be high.  I expect Travis Konecny would be in there as part of a package which begs the question that if GM Daniel Briere wants to pony up for a winger, why not just lock up Konecny long-term at a lesser rate and keep the other trade assets in the fold?  If I’m choosing between that or acquiring Marner, I’m going with the former.

Jaysen: Your thoughts on a Marner for Saros trade, straight up? Potentially as a sign-and-trade for both?

Or if the above proposal is a no-go, maybe Marner to Chicago or to Utah? And yes, let’s pretend that Marner waives…

Finally, Toronto must make changes to the roster. I’m interested in what would be your most mind-blowing, no way, they did what scenario.

Thank you.

Starting with your trade proposal, I like it for Nashville, assuming it’s a double sign-and-trade.  Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future and if they can get a legitimate top-line winger for a starting goalie, that’s a whole lot better of a return than most starters fetch.

I’m less enthusiastic from Toronto’s point of view, however.  Juuse Saros will be entering his age-30 season when his next deal starts and has had the heaviest workload in terms of games played for the last three years.  That’s a bit concerning when you’re going to hand him a deal comparable to Connor Hellebuyck’s $8.5MM per season.  Yes, he’d certainly represent an upgrade but that’s a lot of offense to sacrifice to get it and a big amount to give up to keep him around.  My Plan A would be to aim a tier lower for a goalie upgrade where it wouldn’t take Marner going the other way even if you wind up moving Marner in a separate move later on.

As for Chicago and Utah being possible landing spots, assuming he waives his trade protection, they’re interesting ideas.  I have the same concern for the Blackhawks as I do for Philadelphia in that it might be early but if they think he’s the running mate for Connor Bedard, then I’d say it’s justifiable even if it is early.  Finding a win-now package going Toronto’s way would be tough, however.  Utah, meanwhile, should be exiting its rebuild and likely will be looking for a talent upgrade.  They have several quality young players they could couple with a win-now player (Nick Schmaltz stands out as an option) that could make for a compelling offer.

When I first saw the last part of this question, my initial thought was if Utah won the lottery, they dealt the first-overall pick for Auston Matthews, sending Matthews to the former Arizona team just after they left his hometown state.  But that’s not happening and San Jose certainly isn’t making that move with where they are.

But let’s stick with the premise.  If I’m picking the ‘no way’ type of move, you have to go big so I’d say it’s moving Matthews while making the decision to pivot to using William Nylander full-time down the middle.  That would lessen the need to get a win-now center coming the other way as they’d have him and John Tavares as their one-two options for next season.  As part of the return, the Leafs would get a young center with top-six potential that ideally would slide into that role the following year (or soon after if Tavares is re-signed at a lower rate).  But the key part of the package would be a legitimate number one defenseman.

If I were to ask who is the least likely of their core forwards to be moved, I think it’d be Matthews.  But in this pie-in-the-sky scenario, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander all refuse to waive their trade protection, resulting in them pivoting to Matthews and using him to fill a key need now, add a piece for the future, and bank on Nylander adapting to and thriving in the number one role.  That’d be a shocker to me.

Breakaway: I heard that Patrik Laine is selling his place in Columbus. He could be buying a new place but is most likely looking for a trade. Who do you think would be interested, what would the trade package look like and would Columbus need to retain some salary?

Notwithstanding the report about selling his house, it makes sense for both sides to have at least some interest in a change of scenery, assuming he’s cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.  Columbus hasn’t got much bang for their buck on his contract and as a result, Laine appears to be heading toward a sizable pay cut if he repeats the performance of the last two years.  In situations like this, a move makes a lot of sense for both sides…in theory, at least.

Here’s the problem for Columbus.  Laine’s trade value is probably at an all-time low right now.  Yes, there’s a longer-term track record of some success but he has 28 goals in the past two years combined, spanning just 73 games due to injuries and his entrance to the Assistance Program.  He also has a cap hit of $8.7MM and is owed $9.1MM in actual money for each of the two remaining years on his contract.  He also controls his destiny to a point with a ten-team no-trade list.

There are three options for them to consider, none of which are particularly ideal.  They can give him away for next to nothing simply to clear up the cap space and save on salary.  They can retain half the contract and receive a potentially halfway-decent return, maybe a reasonable draft pick (I’m thinking a second-rounder as I type this) and a middle-six forward.  Or, they can try to find another pricey short-term contract that isn’t going well for a team and try to make a swap with the rest of the package being determined by the difference in caliber of the player.  This last one is more theoretical as I don’t see a great fit at first glance.

If the Blue Jackets decide to just cut bait, Chicago makes a lot of sense; it would be a move just like the Hall trade from last summer.  Here’s a top-six player with a bit of upside on paper and a legitimate shooter to work with Bedard.  If things go well, he’s the type of player I could see them extending.  But again, like Hall, the return would be negligible; they’d have to have a plan in place to utilize the cost savings.

If they want to retain money and make more of a hockey trade, Seattle stands out at first glance.  GM Ron Francis might prefer the shorter-term option over a free agent acquisition and if Laine is healthy, he’d be an intriguing fit in a Kraken lineup that needs more firepower.  To make the money work, someone like Brian Dumoulin could go the other way with the draft pick or equivalent prospect.  I also like Utah’s fit here.  They have money to spend and at 26, Laine is a young enough veteran to fit in with their group.  The matching money part isn’t as easy but probably isn’t needed; a deal based on draft and prospect capital should work for them and we know they have plenty of both.

Whoever Columbus hires as GM will have options when it comes to trading Laine if they decide to go that route.  But whichever way they go, the return will pale in comparison to what they gave up to get him in the first place.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some discussion about the playoffs, what New Jersey’s big-game hunting could look like in the coming weeks, and much more.  With all the questions submitted, we’ll break it into three columns between now and next weekend so if yours doesn’t appear here, check back in one of those pieces.

schwa: Few questions here:

What was the biggest surprise to you in the first round?
What’s your favorite matchup for the second?
What potential matchup excites you most for CFs / SCF?

There weren’t a lot of surprises for me in the first round but Winnipeg flaming out would be the biggest.  While I had concerns that their core group – one that has been more miss than hit in the postseason – could sustain a long run, I thought they really had a chance to get past Colorado, especially with Alexandar Georgiev struggling mightily down the stretch.  But the Avs picked them apart and made it look easy which is hard to do to a team that put up 110 points in the regular season.  While I had the Jets winning, the fact the Avalanche did isn’t the biggest surprise.  But how they did it was something I wasn’t expecting.

Going into the round, it was Colorado and Dallas and that hasn’t changed.  The Stars are one of the most balanced teams in the league but had the toughest first-round battle.  They can match the Avalanche talent-wise but are they going to wear down as this series went on with how hard the Vegas matchup was?  These are two of the top teams in the NHL but that question is going to linger for me.

For Conference Final matchups, I think Edmonton and Colorado would be intriguing just for the potential for some back-and-forth, high-octane hockey that we don’t typically see that deep into the playoffs.  In the East, it looks like the Rangers are coming out of the Metropolitan and if I’m picking for what might be the more interesting series from a watching perspective, it’d be Florida.  Then, for the Cup Final, the Avs and Rangers.  If I was predicting what was going to happen, that’s probably not where I’d go but those would be some compelling series.

Nha Trang: Will the numerous pundits who predicted that the Bruins were going to go down in the biggest first-round upset enjoy the crow they’re being served, or will they collectively pretend they never made such a prediction and hope people have forgotten?

While we didn’t publish our picks, I’ll be up front and say I had Toronto winning that series.  It wasn’t my biggest upset prediction (Nashville over Vancouver which also didn’t pan out was) but I thought the Maple Leafs would be able to score enough to get through this round and then fall to Florida again.  Frankly, it was a close enough series on paper heading in that I don’t think many would have had that as their biggest upset.

As to your question, I’m sure some will try to pretend they didn’t pick it but that’s the beauty of internet archiving; anyone who posted their picks has those picks saved somewhere.  But collectively, no, I don’t think there would have been any group effort to deny the existence of those selections.

Besides, it’s not as if the Bruins ran away with that series.  It took seven games and three attempts to clinch it with the winning goal coming in overtime.  It was a pretty tightly played series overall so if you’re hoping to see some ‘I was wrong about the Bruins’ comments, they might have to get a little deeper into the postseason and win a bit more convincingly.

Cla23: Do you see Sean Monahan signing long-term with the Jets?

Do you see coach Bowness sign an extension or will he choose to retire and spend his time with his beautiful wife? After the scary year they had on a personal/health level.

If he retires, is it Scott Arniel’s time to be head coach?

When it comes to Monahan, a lot of it is going to revolve around what he’s looking for.  Is he looking to go to a contender?  Is he looking to maximize money?  Will the term of the contract be the top priority?  If he wants a longer-term deal, I think Winnipeg would have a very good chance at keeping him.  Monahan had a strong start to the year with Montreal and fit in quite well following the trade.  He fits on that roster as it’s currently constructed and Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff might be more inclined to offer up a longer-term agreement (despite his injury history) knowing it isn’t always easy attracting talent to Winnipeg.  If Monahan gets the term and at least close to the money he’s looking for, I could see him sticking around.

That said, if he wants to go try to play for a contender and is willing to take another short-term deal at a lesser rate to make that happen, then that probably pushes Winnipeg out of things.  We’ll see what his top priority will be for his next contract soon enough.

Obviously, we now know the answer to the Bowness question as he announced his retirement soon after this question was posed.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise to me for the reasons you noted in the question; this was the logical and expected outcome.

As for Arniel, the question I ask myself is this – is he getting any attention for the other vacancies around the league?  While teams don’t exactly divulge this information, it doesn’t seem like it at first glance.  So if Arniel isn’t garnering head coaching attention elsewhere, should he really be up for the top job with the Jets?  I think he’s a safe short-term pick and might be the favorite to land the role but all else being equal, he wouldn’t be my first choice, especially for a team that’s built to try to win now.  I’d be looking for a veteran who might have a shorter shelf life but a proven track record of getting quick results.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Devils said they are going “big-game hunting” this offseason.
Let’s apply this to both the coach and 1A goalie.
Who do they get? Realistically.

Is there a big-game type of coach out there?  Of the coaches that are currently available, is there a true headliner?  In terms of experience and success, it’s probably Joel Quenneville who may or may not be eligible to coach again.  Todd McLellan and Gerard Gallant qualify more as retreads at this point than big-name guys.  Craig Berube would be next but I could see him landing in Toronto.

If I was picking their next coach, I’d swing for upside.  As a result, I’d go right off the board for the coach (when it comes to who has been linked for the position) and pick Jay Leach as their new bench boss.  He’s paid his dues as an assistant and head coach in the minors and now three years as an assistant in Seattle.  He finished up his playing career in New Jersey’s organization as well so there’s a bit of familiarity with the market which helps.  In terms of ‘upside’ for a coach, he’d be near the top of the list so if they take a big swing, maybe it’s for upside over experience.  Having said that, you asked who I think they’ll get, not who I’d pick so for who I think they get, I’ll go with Jay Woodcroft, someone who might still have a perception as a coach with a bit of upside given that he’s still early on in his coaching career.

As for the goalie situation, I think they wind up with Jacob Markstrom.  It sounded like some of the money-related hurdles had been cleared closer to the deadline so if they rekindle talks at that point, they should be able to get something done.  Calgary’s asking price will probably have to come down given the other netminders that many expect to be available and that will help bridge the gap that existed when talks broke down in March.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nashville’s goaltending situation, ranking the NHL’s potential expansion sites, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check in last weekend’s mailbag.

PyramidHeadcrab: With the Sharks having now cleared nearly all of their large (and arguably, overpriced) contracts off the book, what’s the next step? What actions lead to greener pastures?

The next step is patience.  While it feels like San Jose has been rebuilding for a while, they’re still in the relative infancy of it when it comes to accumulating assets and future core pieces.  They have a few in place headlined by Will Smith but there’s still some work to do on that front.  Landing their goalie of the future will also need to happen.

Basically, they need another couple of years like this before slowly starting to build back up as their core youngsters get integrated into the lineup and become comfortable enough to take on bigger roles.  As that happens, then they supplement with quality veterans and, ideally, impact ones over time.  In other words, follow the model that Arizona is doing which is a long-winded rebuild but one that should eventually prove to be fruitful.

I assume you were hoping for something more concrete of an action, however.  Here’s what I’d recommend.

San Jose needs to be the clearinghouse for teams to offload pricey short-term deals.  They can’t retain any salary until 2025-26 as their three slots are all tied up so they can’t pick up picks that way.  But they can add draft choices by taking on some contracts.  It’s not as if they don’t want or need to spend either; they have nearly $39MM in cap space for next year, per CapFriendly, and their RFA class won’t eat up a huge chunk of that amount.  Rather than shopping in free agency to get to the cap floor, why not take on a contract or two (or three) and add some more assets that way?  I’m not saying that will expedite things but if it helps land them another quality prospect or two, it’d be well worth doing.

GBear: Does Trotz trade either Saros or Askarov this offseason, and if so, which of the two?

I’m going to answer these out of order.  If one moves, I think it’s Juuse Saros.  I say that knowing that Nashville was believed to be open to move Yaroslav Askarov to move up at the trade a year ago but it’s a different situation now than it was then.

Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension with Winnipeg just gave Saros a legitimate benchmark to shoot for in his next negotiations.  Should Nashville be willing to commit that type of contract to Saros two years from now?  I’d say no, especially since they’re not exactly short-term contenders.  This time a year ago, I think the team could have been aiming for an extension in the $7MM range based on how the goalie market had played out.  But the Hellebuyck one really changed the math on that which I think then changes the outcome of who goes.

As to the question of when a move happens, in a perfect world, those two are the tandem to start the season, giving the Preds some insurance and Askarov a quality veteran to work with.  The problem is getting full value for a legitimate number one goaltender in-season is something that probably just isn’t going to happen.  Few teams have a need at that time and usually, some that would couldn’t afford Saros’ $5MM price tag.

Accordingly, I guess it’s going to need to happen in the offseason, likely leading up to the draft where some of the bigger moves get made.  That would then give GM Barry Trotz time to find a veteran replacement to work with Askarov, either via trade or in free agency although it’s not a particularly strong UFA class for netminders.

Cla23: What are the chances of the Jets signing Monahan and Toffoli to extensions?  What’s going to happen to Perfetti? Trade bait maybe?

I would say that the Jets have a reasonable chance of signing Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli to new deals.  If I had to pick one of the two as to who was more likely to sign, I’d go with Toffoli.  He was certainly open to re-signing in New Jersey and it came down to term and money; the two sides were just too far apart.  If GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is willing to meet that asking price (which was speculated to be around the contract that Alex Killorn got last summer, four years and $25MM), then I don’t think Toffoli would have any issue eschewing a chance at testing the market, especially with the Jets being a team that is firmly in win-now mode.

Monahan’s a bit of a trickier case.  The long injury history makes him a real wild card.  I’m sure Monahan would like a long-term deal that set him up for the rest of his prime years but with that injury history, do the Jets want to give him that?  Perhaps more importantly, does Monahan think he can get it?  If so, he’ll probably go to market.  But if he figures his best shot is a medium-term agreement, then I think it’s right in Winnipeg’s wheelhouse to get a deal done.

I don’t get the sense that Cheveldayoff will be looking at Cole Perfetti as trade bait this offseason.  Yes, he was a healthy scratch recently but he still should be part of their longer-term plans.  He’s having a quieter year than expected but Perfetti is still just 22.  Now being deployed on the fourth line, he’s not exactly in a spot where he could be maximizing his trade value either.  Perfetti will almost certainly wind up with a short-term bridge contract in his first trip through restricted free agency so they can easily afford to give him another year and see how things go before taking a longer look at assessing his long-term fit with the franchise.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What does the offseason look like for the Pens? Clearly, Kyle Dubas wants to change this roster makeup and get younger.

Is it possible we actually see one of Crosby, Letang, Malkin, or Karlsson moved in the offseason? They have most of the roster locked up for next year so I imagine trades are how they are going to have to address this roster primarily.

It definitely feels like there’s a goal of getting the Penguins to be a younger group.  And, barring an improbable turnaround that propels them into a playoff spot, that should be the course of action to take.  That said, it’s a concept that’s a lot easier said than done.

Let’s look at the four veterans you listed.  I don’t think Kris Letang or Evgeni Malkin would entertain the possibility of leaving and waiving their no-move clauses.  Erik Karlsson tried his best to pour cold water on the idea of him moving on although I think he’d consider it in the right situation.  So maybe it’s him.  But otherwise, Sidney Crosby might be the logical candidate.  He, too, has a no-move clause but has suggested he’d want to do what’s in the best interest of the franchise.  He’d certainly bring back the best return so if it comes to that and he’s amenable, it could be Crosby who moves on to help jumpstart the rebuild if they’ve decided the time is right to do that.

Having said that, I don’t think Plan A is moving any one of those.  Instead, it’s more work around the edges of the roster.  Reilly Smith will be on an expiring deal next season so there should be a viable trade market for him.  I expect they’ll try to do something with Rickard Rakell in a player-player swap of underachievers.  Marcus Pettersson could be in play on an expiring deal as well.  Getting some younger pieces back will accomplish that same objective while giving their core yet another opportunity to try to get back to the postseason.  It’s a fine line to balance but I suspect Dubas will be encouraged to attempt to pull this off.

I’m not convinced it’ll just be trades, however.  If the cap goes up to $87.5MM as expected, they’ll have a little under $13MM to work with, per CapFriendly.  As you noted, a lot of spots are filled so there is room for them to add a piece or two on the open market.  If they aim for the younger options (27, 28, maybe 29 years old), they can make the team a bit younger while still potentially upgrading it.  I don’t think the teardown to really cycle to a younger core is coming just yet but the average age will be a bit younger on opening night next season.  All in all, I think it’ll be a busy summer for Pittsburgh but not quite at least year’s activity level.

Black Ace57: How would you rank the rumored expansion cities from most likely to least likely? Also, why is Cincy even in consideration when Columbus already has to contend with the Penguins over building a fan base? Can Ohio really support two teams like that?

There are believed to be five cities that have reached out to the NHL about potential expansion based on comments from NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman last month.  Those five, with my rankings, are Salt Lake City, Houston, Atlanta, Omaha, and Cincinnati.

With Salt Lake City, it feels like a matter of when, not if, a franchise is there.  About the only way it doesn’t happen through expansion is if the Coyotes wind up there.  (Frankly, that’s a semi-realistic outcome.)  It seems safe to say they’ll have a team soon enough.

Houston is the other one where it feels like a case of when, not if.  They already have an arena and a potential owner in place.  It’s also a major media market and as we’ve seen with the NHL’s attempts to keep the Coyotes in a bigger media market in Arizona, they’re going to try hard to stay in (or get to) the big markets.

Atlanta would be next.  Yes, it has failed before but by the time a team was to come, basically an entire generation would have gone by.  It’s a sizable market with at least a bit of a core base from the Thrashers days.  I’m not overly confident that they’d have long-term success but with it being a bigger market as well, that will help their cause.

The other two I’m a bit skeptical about.  Omaha is at least a new market but I’m not sure that alone is enough to get the NHL’s attention.  And I share the same concern with Cincinnati.  It’s not that they’re under consideration though, they’ve just submitted a letter of interest.  But I don’t see that one happening either.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the quiet deadline for the Red Wings, a look at the offseason head coaching market, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gowings2008: Why has Yzerman stood pat in terms of trades and call-ups? Follow up, do you think Yzerman sees the team’s window as Seider and Raymond’s primes and is using Larkin’s prime to give the younger prospects time to mature?

I was surprised to see Detroit largely stand pat at the trade deadline.  I didn’t have them making a big splash but with the cap space they have, I thought they’d get in on the cheaper buys.  The fact there were some low-cost additions for teams that were simply willing to take on the full freight of the contract only made me more surprised as that was the type of move for them to make.

It came out after the deadline that Yzerman was hesitant to move their top picks and prospects.  I completely agree with that decision.  But flipping a late-round pick for an upgrade up front was something they could have done.  From a recall perspective, teams are capped at four non-emergency recalls from here to the end of the season.  They’ve already used three (Jonatan Berggren after being papered down while Austin Czarnik and Simon Edvinsson were converted to regular recalls once emergency conditions on their promotions ended).  They can’t do much more on that front.

I think Yzerman sees this team as being a couple of years away from contention which lines up with your follow-up question.  I suspect he’s hoping Dylan Larkin is still in his prime at that time but the hope is that their prospects should be starting to become key contributors at that time.  Those players will be on their entry-level deals, giving them ample cap space to take a big swing on the open market to upgrade as well.

rule78.1: What do the Red Wings do with the following UFA/RFA forwards this coming offseason now that weaknesses with them have been exposed?

Kane
Raymond
Perron
Veleno

I fully expect them to take a run at re-signing Patrick Kane.  39 points in 39 games is quite impressive and frankly, better than I was expecting.  There is going to be some risk here, however, with the track record of players coming back from his surgery not being the strongest.  He was willing to take a one-year deal this time but that shouldn’t be the case in the summer.  Anything over two years might make Yzerman hesitant.  I think Perron is in a similar situation.  At the right price point and term (again, probably a maximum of two years), I think they’d be interested in re-signing him.  But right now, I think he’s likelier to move on with the team turning to the open market to replace him.

As for the RFAs, it’s a bit easier to forecast.  Raymond is getting signed, it’s only a matter of bridge or long-term.  I think Moritz Seider gets the long-term deal while Raymond gets a two-year bridge around Perron’s current price point of $4.75MM.   Joe Veleno didn’t have much leverage last summer which is why he settled for just $825K.  He hasn’t shown enough for a long-term contract just yet but another one-year agreement feels likely for him.  With arbitration rights, he could more than double that AAV.  He has been a bit underwhelming for a first-round pick but there’s still room for him in Detroit’s long-term core.

Unclemike1526: I hate to keep harping on the Hawks’ goaltending but they have to do something next year, right? Now that Mrazek is here for two more years and that’s cool, can we count on him to have another injury-free year? I think we’ve all seen that Soderblom isn’t any kind of answer. Is Commesso going to be ready next year? Gajan is the future but at least two years away. Basse might not even sign here. They need to get some kind of bridge guy to the young guys and the future. I mean if Mrazek goes down next year without that guy they might as well phone in the games. A decent vet on a one-year deal who can hold down the fort just in case. Right? Thanks as always.

Do they have to do something?  Probably not.  Mrazek is there and if they’re not ready to pull the plug on Arvid Soderblom, they could very well run with those two next season.  They could then look to a veteran third-stringer to pair with Drew Commesso in the minors but that squeezes out Jaxson Stauber.  If they don’t want to have Soderblom (or Stauber) in the backup role next year, then Soderblom pairs with Commesso and yes, then a veteran on a one-year deal makes a whole lot of sense.  Frankly, a two-year deal would be more than defensible given Mrazek’s injury history; expecting Mrazek to be healthy would be risky.

Speaking of Commesso, I think you need to adjust your expectations for NHL readiness.  Over the years, I’ve read plenty of interviews with team executives who say they’d like a young goalie to have between 100 and 150 AHL games before moving up; there’s a reason they typically are promoted a lot slower than skaters do.  Commesso is currently at 30 games where he has been decent but not elite.  I don’t think he’ll be ready next season and unless he’s flat-out dominating the league for an extended stretch next year, I don’t think he’ll be ready for 2025-26 either.  That isn’t to say they couldn’t give him a few starts here and there when injuries strike on the NHL tandem but in terms of being a regular, he has a long way to go.

I’ll quickly comment on Adam Gajan as well who you have as at least two years away.  I’d add several years to that timeline.  He’s not having a great final season in the USHL which doesn’t help but most goalies play at least three years in college (like Commesso did).  Goalies basically never make the jump from the NCAA to the NHL as, again, teams want lots of AHL action before promoting them full-time.  Accordingly, I’d peg Gajan as five years away from being an NHL regular, possibly closer to six.  There’s reason for optimism for the future in goal but patience will be required.

Gmm8811: There are currently four interim coaches behind the benches. In my opinion, none of them will be hired next season as the full-time bench boss. Odds of Quenneville being reinstated? Thoughts on new hires? Recycle former coaches or new blood coming aboard?

First, let’s list the four interim coaches – Jim Hiller (Los Angeles), Travis Green (New Jersey), Jacques Martin (Ottawa), and Drew Bannister (St. Louis).  We know for sure that Martin won’t be back and I’d be surprised if Hiller was.  I think there’s a chance that Green sticks around if the Devils do well down the stretch and sneak into that final playoff spot.  As for Bannister, I think he will stay on in the full-time role.  The Blues aren’t going to be contenders over the next few years so a developmental coach like Bannister might be the right fit.  They’ve played well enough since he took over that I could see him getting a three-year deal.

I expect someone will take a real run at Joel Quenneville this offseason.  By then, he’ll have been out of the game for nearly three years now.  Will that be long enough for him to be reinstated?  I wouldn’t call it a lock but if I had to handicap it, maybe 80/20 that he is.

As for the vacancies, it’ll be the usual mixture of some first-time hires and others getting a second (or third) opportunity.  For first-time hires, Jon Gruden and Jay Leach I think will be strong candidates.  Gruden has been speculatively linked to Ottawa’s opening for a while now and Leach had some interest last year.  For the recycled options as you termed it, I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Berube lands another opportunity.  Dean Evason likely will get some inquiries as well and I wonder about Jay Woodcroft.  I know the fact Edmonton took off after they let him go doesn’t help but he helped turn things around when he took over and is still a young coach.  The chance to get a newer blood type of coach with some NHL experience could be appealing to some teams so I think he’ll have some interviews as well.

Schwa: Any predictions on where the top college free agents end up and who has the best chance of contributing early on? Is there a different format or process in this free agency than that of the summer FA? Thanks!

In terms of predicting where they end up, it’s a giant dart throw.  This isn’t a situation where some teams have more cap space than others which would be a difference-maker in discussions.  All teams are capped at offering entry-level deals so there will be little to no difference between them.  For some players, it’ll be about playing close to home.  For others, they’ll be targeting a team willing to burn a year of the contract now.  Others will look at depth charts and try to find a team with thin depth to give them a better chance of being recalled.  Meanwhile, some others will look for teams with better track records of prospect development.  With each player having a different priority, it’s really hard to forecast who the top contenders will be.

As for who has the best chance of contributing early, I think defenseman Dylan Anhorn could be a candidate to burn a year right away and see a handful of games down the stretch.  Winger Collin Graf will be highly sought after and should start his entry-level pact right away.  Note that these players – or any undrafted college free agent signing – will only be eligible to play until the playoffs.

There isn’t necessarily a different process to college free agency (teams can speak to agents/family advisors to work out a contract) but how it plays out is a bit different.  Unlike July 1st, not all players will be looking to sign right away as once they sign, they can’t play anymore in college.  Accordingly, players will wait until their campaign comes to an end.  For some, that has already happened while for others, that might not occur until closer to mid-April.  As a result, the flow of players is more gradual instead of the typical free-for-all we see on July 1st.

Read more