Blues In Rare Position To Promote Multiple Prospects
The St. Louis Blues are in a bit of a funk. They’ve missed each of the last two postseasons – only the fourth time in the team’s 57-year history that they’ve missed consecutive playoffs – but are still being elevated by the next-level talent of players like Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Jordan Binnington. That’s kept the team from falling completely into the NHL’s basement, but their core is still aging rapidly. It seems the clock is ticking in St. Louis – as the Blues find themselves in urgent need of a surge in young talent to keep the lineup from falling into a rebuild.
Unfortunately, promoting young players hasn’t been much of a hallmark of recent Blues hockey. Only two teenagers – Thomas and Robby Fabbri – have played meaningful minutes in St. Louis since 2010, and still, both players faced third-line roles and plenty of scrutiny over their ice time. But they each found ways to produce, scoring 33 and 37 points in their rookie seasons respectively, and both eventually working onto St. Louis’ top line. That was short-lived for Fabbri, but the duo’s success nonetheless showed the payoff of giving top prospects NHL minutes.
The Blues have more recently seen those same patterns with 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who worked up to an impressive 27 goals and 38 points in 77 games this season. It was Neighbours’ first full year in the NHL – though he entered with 52 games of prior experience – and he walked out the tail end of it with a firm grasp on a second-line role. Joel Hofer, 24, made a similar climb to prominence this year, appearing in 30 games and matching the .913 of starter Binnington – having graduated from two proud seasons as the AHL starter.
It’s continued evidence of young players finding success in NHL minutes – spelling tons of excitement for a Blues team preparing to host Dalibor Dvorsky, Zachary Bolduc, and Zach Dean at training camp. The latter two each received their NHL debuts last Spring, with Bolduc even formalizing his rookie season with 25 games played. But Bolduc managed just nine points, while Dean went scoreless in nine games. Their quiet scoring prevailed in the minors leagues as well, but both Bolduc and Dean took big strides in improving their ability to match pro pace. Meanwhile, Dvorsky was tearing up the OHL, recording 45 goals and 88 points in just 52 games. He looked like a pro among amateurs, likely thanks to the 38 games he played in Sweden’s HockeyAllsvenskan in 2022-23.
All three forwards are capable of a jump to the top flight, with the sturdy frames of Bolduc and Dvorsky looking especially mature. That’s great news, as St. Louis sits with, perhaps, their most uncertain bottom-six since the early-2000s. It’s a hodge-podge group, where Alexey Toropchenko stands as the only confident inclusion. Joining him will be a mix of quiet Blues veterans – like Oskar Sundqvist, Nathan Walker, and Kasperi Kapanen – and new acquisitions – like Radek Faksa, Mathieu Joseph, and Alexandre Texier. That’s plenty of manpower to round out a bottom-six, but none of those options would stand as particularly daunting against a young prospect who impresses out of camp.
Making things more exciting is St. Louis’ win of the sweepstakes for Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. They shelled out $6.87MM in offer sheets to bring in the duo, but now add two more exciting young players into their mix of potential breakout names. Holloway is the more experienced of the two, having played in 89 games across the last two seasons. He’s only scored 18 points, split evenly, in those appearances, but looked to have a bit more momentum when he put up nine points in 25 games during the most recent postseason. Holloway has shown he’s capable of being productive with a pro role, scoring 26 points in 30 career AHL games, and should get a chance to quickly earn a prominent role on St. Louis’ lineup. Broberg’s story is largely the same – low-scoring through roughly a season’s worth of NHL appearances (13 points in 81 games) but encouraging minor-league production (65 points in 87 games) and a chance to quickly earn a major role.
That gives St. Louis the rare mix of multiple U23 prospects vying for NHL ice time, and the lineup spots to truly accommodate multiple rookies. It’s been six seasons since the Blues iced carried multiple U23 players on their everyday roster (2017-18, Robert Thomas and Vince Dunn) – but the stars are aligning, making now a better time than ever for St. Louis to fully embrace their burgeoning top prospects. If and how the quintet of Dvorsky, Bolduc, Dean, Holloway, and Broberg are able to earn out NHL roles will stand as the most prophetic question as the Blues look to finally return to the postseason.
West Notes: Oilers, Ceci, Binnington
The Edmonton Oilers’ decision to let Philip Broberg go and to trade Cody Ceci has opened up a hole in their top four that Josh Wegman of The Score believes should be filled via trade before the NHL trade deadline. This week, the Oilers have been checking in on multiple veteran defensemen who remain free agents, but Wegman believes they will seek a better solution before the playoffs.
Wegman lists Marcus Pettersson, Jakob Chychrun, and Ivan Provorov as potential targets as all three men are pending unrestricted free agents. He also believes that the Oilers could look for a longer-term solution and seek a player with some years left on their contract such as Mike Matheson, Connor Murphy, or Radko Gudas. The Oilers have been linked to former Oilers Tyson Barrie and Justin Schultz this week, as well as former Bruins defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. While all of those defensemen have had solid NHL careers, they are not great options for a Stanley Cup-contending team looking to round out their second defensive pairing.
In other Western Conference notes:
- Jim Matheson of The Edmonton Journal doesn’t believe that defenseman Cody Ceci will remain in a San Jose Sharks uniform for very long. The recently traded defenseman has one year left on his current contract with a cap hit of $3.25MM and will likely be dealt to a contending team before next year’s NHL trade deadline. Ceci has never been an analytics darling and probably shouldn’t be a top-four defenseman on a contending team, but as a bottom-pairing defender, he could bring a lot of value to a team looking to add some experience to the backend of their lineup.
- St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington was reportedly very happy with the recent moves made by Blues general manager Doug Armstrong (as per Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com). Binnington told Zeisberger that the successful offer sheets to Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg showed current Blues players that Armstrong had faith in the group, which will motivate the club as they head into training camp. Binnington added that the additions to the Blues should help make the team more competitive next season as they will be a faster group that is harder for opponents to play against.
Notes From The Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway Offer Sheet Fall-Out
The Oilers were likely to lose Philip Broberg one way or another this month. The Blues were one of three teams preparing an offer sheet for the defenseman, Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest reports.
It’s unclear if the two other offers were officially presented to Broberg’s camp. But, as a reminder, unsigned RFAs have no obligation to sign an offer sheet if they’re presented with one.
That means the Blues weren’t just competing with the Oilers’ offer to retain Broberg, which Strickland adds was likely a two-year deal with a $1.1MM average annual value, far less than the $4.58MM AAV at which they acquired him. They were competing with two other teams, partially explaining their inflated offer to the 2019 eighth-overall pick. Their offer to Broberg was also the maximum they could sign him for without being required to part with their 2025 first-round pick as compensation to Edmonton.
It’s also fair to infer that Broberg’s camp had an indication for some time that there was offer sheet interest. The deal from the Oilers was much closer to fair market value for a defender coming off a season spent mainly in the minors and less than an entire season’s worth of NHL experience under his belt.
Edmonton’s offer to Dylan Holloway was a three-year deal worth $1.05MM, per Strickland. That’s a much smaller gap to bridge to the two-year, $2.29MM AAV pact he signed with St. Louis. Still, a deal over the $2MM AAV threshold for a player with fewer than 10 NHL goals across nearly 90 games is challenging for a cap-strapped contender, regardless of his ceiling.
They’ve gone with a slightly older but cheaper player with a skillset to replace him by acquiring Vasily Podkolzin, who was selected two picks after Broberg in 2019, from the Canucks. His AAV is $1MM for the next two seasons, mirroring their offer to Holloway more closely.
Sacrificing short-term overpaid but high-ceiling young talent came to maintain in-season salary cap flexibility, posits Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. After declining to match the offer sheets, the Oilers have enough projected cap space to field a 22-player opening night roster without utilizing long-term injured reserve, allowing them to accumulate cap space throughout the season.
That will give general manager Stan Bowman free reign to add talent at the trade deadline as the Oilers attempt to make their second Stanley Cup Final in as many years. Per PuckPedia, maintaining their roughly $946K in season-opening cap space will snowball into $4.4MM available to spend on March 6.
Oilers Decline To Match Offer Sheets For Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway
The Oilers have let Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway head to the Blues today by declining to match the offer sheets they signed last week, the team announced.
As such, Broberg and Holloway will enter into valid two-year contracts with the Blues. Broberg’s deal has a total value of $9.16MM and a $4.58MM cap hit, while Holloway’s has a total value of $4.58MM and a $2.29MM cap hit. Upon expiry in 2026, each will become restricted free agents with arbitration rights.
Edmonton will receive the Blues’ 2025 second and third-round picks as compensation for the Broberg and Holloway offers. St. Louis had previously traded away next year’s second-rounder but re-acquired it from the Penguins minutes before announcing the offer sheets last week.
Broberg, 23, was the eighth overall pick in the 2019 draft after dominating that year’s U18 World Championship, being named the tournament’s best defenseman, an All-Star, and a top-three player on the team while winning a gold medal with Sweden. Unfortunately, he hasn’t yet been able to convert that draft pedigree into a full-time NHL role. He’s bounced between the Oilers and their AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, limiting Edmonton’s willingness to give him a deal with a seven-figure AAV, let alone one in the $4MM range.
2023-24 marked a regression for Broberg, who got just 12 regular-season appearances after making a career-high 46 the season before. The left-shot averaged 11:37 per game, his shortest leash since making his NHL debut three years ago, and had two assists with a -3 rating. However, he was able to unlock a new gear in the minors. He’d been a two-way force with the Condors since arriving in North America in 2021 but took things to a new level last season with five goals, 33 assists, 38 points, and a +11 rating in 49 games. His 0.78 points per game were fourth in the league among defenders with at least 15 games played.
Broberg entered restricted free agency for the first time on a bit of a high note after re-entering the Oilers lineup during the tail end of their run to the Stanley Cup Final. He got into 10 games in May and June, getting top-four spot duty alongside Darnell Nurse and averaging 15:48 per game. He seemed to respond well, posting three points and a +8 rating, but his shot attempt metrics were quite poor, and his rating has more to do with an artificially high .969 SV% from Oilers netminder Stuart Skinner while Broberg was on the ice. The eye test indicated he was playing with more confidence, though, despite being bumped to his weak side playing with Nurse.
Holloway is a similar story. The 6’1″ forward, who turns 23 next month, was the No. 14 overall pick a year after Broberg and, had he been eight days older, would have been eligible for the 2022 draft instead. In his post-draft season, Holloway enjoyed a standout sophomore campaign at the University of Wisconsin, where he had 35 points in just 23 games and was named to the Big 10 conference’s First All-Star Team and was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award for the top collegiate player. However, like his Swedish counterpart, Holloway has failed to avoid AHL assignments through each of his three professional seasons thus far.
However, Holloway has gotten more runway at the NHL level, making 89 appearances combined over the past two campaigns. He’s likely a safer bet to be an impact piece for St. Louis this season despite his contract being worth half as much as Broberg’s. With Edmonton’s world-beating forward depth, there have been limited opportunities for Holloway to land a spot higher up in the lineup, limiting his usage to 10:21 per game. That’s resulted in a relatively meager career offensive output of nine goals and 18 points, 0.20 per game.
Like Broberg, Holloway’s minor-league showings have been strong, most recently scoring 10 goals and six assists in 18 games with the Condors last season. But with the pending move to the Blues, both players’ days of seeing AHL ice are over. The Blues’ entire left defense depth chart becomes a tossup with Broberg, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Scott Perunovich and veterans Nick Leddy and Ryan Suter, neither of whom have any set roles entering the season. There’s also the matter of Torey Krug, who could miss the entire 2024-25 season if he undergoes surgery to correct pre-arthritic conditions in his left ankle. If he’s out, there’s a chance for Broberg to earn a top-four job come opening night with a strong training camp.
Likewise, the Blues’ below-average forward depth gives Holloway a fighting chance at claiming a top-nine role when the Blues kick off the NHL’s Opening Night festivities against the Kraken on Oct. 8. There are options galore for the Blues to utilize Holloway, who can play both left-wing and center, in a wide-open competition with depth players like Mathieu Joseph, Kasperi Kapanen and Alexandre Texier.
It’s all part of a clear directive from St. Louis general manager Doug Armstrong to get younger and faster this summer, picking up more cost-effective depth pieces like Joseph and Texier to help boost a team with a roster now barely recognizable from its 2019 Stanley Cup win.
The Blues will be down to just $470K in projected cap space after taking on the contracts, but that’s assuming a roster size of two players over the 23-man limit. If they sent a pair of league-minimum contracts down to the minors, they’ll begin the season with just over $2MM in space.
After letting both players walk, the Oilers’ pathway to cap compliance is now clear. It’ll be a tight fit, but they have a few options to submit a cap-compliant opening night roster with at least one healthy extra, as outlined by PuckPedia. On the ice, they went out and acquired cheaper replacements for Broberg and Holloway on the trade market by picking up Ty Emberson from the Sharks and Vasily Podkolzin from the Canucks, but said goodbye to top-four fixture Cody Ceci and his $3.25MM cap hit in the process.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to report that the Oilers would not be matching the offer sheets.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Oilers Pathway Toward Cap Compliancy
If their cap struggles weren’t already bad enough this summer, the Edmonton Oilers were struck a significant blow last week when the St. Louis Blues signed defenseman Philip Broberg to a two-year, $9.16MM offer sheet and forward Dylan Holloway to a two-year, $4.58MM offer sheet. Oilers’ general manager Stan Bowman has until tomorrow to match both or either respective offer but could allow both to walk and receive draft compensation in return.
PuckPedia gave a solid breakdown of how Edmonton could find its way back to salary cap compliance after the separate trades that brought Vasily Podkolzin to Alberta and sent Cody Ceci to the San Jose Sharks. The salary cap website asserts that if the Oilers place Evander Kane on long-term injured reserve to start the year, send down Troy Stecher and Derek Ryan, and call up prospect Matt Savoie to the NHL, they will be compliant to start the 2024-25 NHL season if they choose to match both offer sheets.
All things considered — this is a decent scenario for Edmonton. Savoie gives the team a low-cost option to plug into the top six and allows the team some flexibility with newcomers Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson on the wing. By moving either Skinner or Arvidsson down to the third line, Holloway could play the wing on the team’s fourth line while moving Mattias Janmark to fourth-line center in this scenario.
The team would still have seven available defensemen to choose from to start the year and Stecher likely would have been light on playing time regardless. Josh Brown and Ty Emberson could split time based on matchups leaving Edmonton’s only glaring hole at the fourth-line center position.
Edmonton is not necessarily out of the woods just yet as it’s uncertain when Kane will ultimately return from his offseason surgery. It’s expected he will be placed on LTIR to begin the season which will keep him out of the lineup for the first 10 games and 24 days of the 2024-25 NHL season. Once the season begins, however, the Oilers will again be in a situation where tough decisions must be made. The Oilers could still allow both players to walk giving them just over $6MM to start the year after placing Kane on LTIR.
It will be interesting to see how aggressive GM Bowman is in bringing back two pieces that haven’t had much opportunity with the organization up to this point. All in all, even with clearing Ceci’s salary and having a clear pathway toward cap compliance to start the year — it will take some time for Edmonton to exit this precarious scenario.
West Notes: Broberg, Pospisil, Abbotsford
There is no clear outline of how the Edmonton Oilers will approach the offer sheets signed by forward Dylan Holloway and defenseman Philip Broberg earlier this week. Still, some pundits in the media are already theorizing about their futures in St. Louis. Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal reported earlier today that if Broberg were to become a player for the Blues organization eventually, he would supplant Scott Perunovich on the second pairing and play next to Justin Faulk.
The main problem with this hypothesis is that Perunovich has arguably been the better defender over the last two years and has grown as a prospect through the Blues farm system. Perunovich has accrued 23 assists in his first 73 games in the NHL while Broberg has only potted 13 points in total through his first 81 games. Perunovich also appears to be the better defensive player at face value and in the advanced statistics with his 91.2% on-ice save percentage compared to Broberg’s 87.3%. In Broberg’s defense, he has been rarely utilized thus far by Edmonton as he’s only managed to average 12:42 of ice time per game with Perunovich receiving nearly three minutes more on average.
Head coach Drew Bannister should have plenty of flexibility on the blue line even if the Oilers decide to match Broberg’s contract. St. Louis already has nine defensemen signed to one-way contracts for the 2024-25 NHL season; with five being left-handed shots. Broberg would give the Blues a total of 10 one-way contracts on the back end with six left-handed shooting defensemen.
Other West notes:
- Calgary Flames forward Martin Pospisil is looking to continue his impressive run with Team Slovakia — this time in the 2026 Winter Olympics (Article Link). Later this month, Slovakia will host a three-game round-robin tournament against Austria, Hungary, and Kazakhstan with the winner receiving an automatic bid for the Olympic Games in Milan. The Slovakian Olympic team will likely rely heavily on Pospisil as he is coming off an impressive international tournament earlier this summer. In the 2024 World Championships, Pospisil scored three goals and seven points in seven games and helped Slovakia reach the playoff round for the first time since 2022.
- The Abbotsford Canucks, the AHL affiliate of the NHL’s Vancouver Canucks, made several staff hires today according to a team announcement. The team brought in Harry Mahesh as an assistant coach, Andrew Shaw as a video coach, and Ross MacEluch as an assistant athletic therapist. Mahesh is the most significant hire of the group as he previously served as a development coach for the Toronto Maple Leafs last year.
West Notes: Mercer, Rantanen, Oilers
The Wild have invited undrafted free agent goalie Riley Mercer to next month’s rookie camp, reports Mike Morreale of NHL.com. Mercer, the younger brother of Devils RFA forward Dawson Mercer, was passed over in the 2022, 2023 and 2024 drafts but came into his own in his final season of junior hockey last year with the QMJHL’s Drummondville Voltigeurs.
The 20-year-old Newfoundland native took over as the Voltigeurs’ starter for the first time in 2023-24, posting a 2.83 GAA and .905 SV% with two shutouts and a 31-13-4 record in 49 appearances. But he erupted in the playoffs, taking over with a shining 1.89 GAA and .934 SV% in 19 games as Drummondville won the QMJHL championship.
Mercer, who stands at 6’2″ and 205 lbs, hasn’t inked a professional contract for this season. He’s technically eligible to return to the Voltigeurs for an overage season, but CHL clubs are limited to three overagers on their roster at any given time and tend not to use those slots on goaltenders.
An entry-level contract with the Wild out of rookie camp is impossible but unlikely. However, a decent showing could earn him a deal with their AHL affiliate, the Iowa Wild, or their ECHL affiliate, the Iowa Heartlanders. It would be a tough numbers game, though, as the organization has seven goalies under contract across the three leagues already (five NHL deals, one AHL deal, and one ECHL deal).
More out of the Western Conference today:
- Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman chimed into the summer discourse today with a quick-hit edition of his “32 Thoughts” podcast, mentioning, among other topics, that there’s a strong sense around the league that the Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen won’t have any issues coming to terms on an extension. “You start to do your planning a year out,” Friedman said. “They’re starting to take Draisaitl off their boards because they think that’s going to get done in Edmonton, and I had some teams tell me they don’t have any reason to believe, right now, that Rantanen is going to be a hard one to get done either. We’ll see where that goes” (hat tip to Evan Rawal of Colorado Hockey Now). As things stand, Rantanen would be the consensus No. 2 player on the 2025 UFA market behind Draisaitl. The 27-year-old winger remained over the 100-point threshold in 2023-24, posting 42 goals and 62 assists in 80 games. An eight-year extension would feasibly eclipse the $11MM mark per year, a decent raise on his current $9.25MM AAV.
- The Oilers should match the Blues’ two-year, $4.58MM offer sheet for Dylan Holloway but let Philip Broberg walk for his two-year, $9.16MM offer, argues Shayna Goldman of The Athletic (subscription required). Among other reasons, the likelihood of Holloway being worth his $2.29MM cap hit this season is much higher than Broberg providing fair value for his $4.58MM price tag, especially for a pair of former first-rounders at similar spots in their development.
Snapshots: Kuznetsov, Oilers, Rosen, Aman
Calgary Flames defenseman Yan Kuznetsov believes that he will take a big step in his development this upcoming season and is hoping a change to his training will allow him to do so (as per Flames writer Chris Wahl). The 22-year-old was re-signed to a one-year, two-way deal by the Flames yesterday after making his NHL debut last season, dressing in one game for Calgary. The former second-round pick believes that he is entering next season in the best shape of his career and is hoping that by being in tune with his body it will better allow him to use his size to his advantage as he pushes for an NHL roster spot with the Flames.
In other news from around the NHL:
- Edmonton Oilers announcer Bob Stauffer tweeted about the Oilers’ current offer sheet conundrum with defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway. The Oilers are currently on the clock after the St. Louis Blues issued a pair of offer sheets and have one week to match the offers or lose the players for draft pick compensation. Stauffer outlines in his tweet that if the Oilers elect to match the lucrative offer sheets, they will have to keep Broberg and Holloway for at least a year, which could be challenging given that they will need to issue lucrative extensions to Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard next summer.
- The MSG Network has announced that New York Rangers television play-by-play broadcaster Sam Rosen will retire after the upcoming NHL season. The 77-year-old is entering his 40th year calling Rangers games full-time after he began calling New York games on the radio for MSG, filling in for Marv Albert. He then pivoted to becoming MSG’s studio host before moving into his current role as the Rangers’ primary television broadcaster in 1984.
- Vancouver Canucks general manager Patrick Allvin spoke with Swedish network hockeysverige.se about Nils Åman and the contract extension he gave the center this past season. The 24-year-old signed a two-year deal worth $825K per season and proceeded to post three goals and four assists in 43 NHL games this past year. Allvin mentioned that he was impressed by Åman’s finish to the season and felt that he had become more assertive on the ice and played with more of an edge. Allvin added that he was hopeful that Åman would continue to develop this summer and build off the success he had in the second half.
Blues Offer Sheet Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway
The Blues are tendering offer sheets to Oilers RFAs Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, the team announced (via Matthew DeFranks of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch). In a separate transaction, they’ve reacquired their own 2025 second-round pick from the Penguins to have the appropriate compensation should Edmonton not match one or both of the offer sheets.
St. Louis’ offer sheet for Broberg is a two-year, $9.16MM deal, while Holloway’s is a two-year, $4.58MM deal, per DeFranks. The deals carry AAVs of $4.58MM and $2.29MM, respectively.
Both are at the maximum of their respective categories in the offer sheet compensation thresholds, which the league updated this offseason. Should Edmonton fail to match, the Blues would owe the Oilers their 2025 third-round pick for Holloway and the aforementioned 2025 second-round pick for Broberg.
The preceding pick swap with the Penguins saw the Blues acquire Pittsburgh’s 2026 fifth-round pick and next year’s second-rounder, sending their 2026 second-round pick and the Senators’ 2025 third-round pick in return. St. Louis had sent its 2025 second-rounder to the Penguins in June to get Kevin Hayes‘ $3.57MM cap hit off the books, while they acquired Ottawa’s pick as compensation for taking on the final two seasons of Mathieu Joseph‘s contract at a $2.95MM cap hit.
New Oilers general manager Stan Bowman now has seven days to decide whether to match the offer sheets or accept the draft-pick compensation. But given Edmonton’s financial situation, matching the bloated short-term deals will be a tough ask.
The second year attached to both deals may be the deciding factor. Not only are the Oilers already over the salary cap today, paying out nearly $7MM in cap hits in 2025-26 for Broberg and Holloway would significantly inhibit their ability to sign pending UFA Leon Draisaitl to what will likely be the richest deal in franchise history.
But if the Oilers decide to match one or both the offer sheets, they wouldn’t need to make any corresponding transactions immediately. Edmonton is only roughly $350K over the $88MM salary cap, per PuckPedia, and teams can exceed that upper limit by up to 10% during the offseason. That’s enough wiggle room to add $6.87MM worth of Broberg and Holloway to the books, but they would need to shed more salary than previously anticipated to become cap-compliant by the time opening-night rosters are due.
Edmonton’s short-term crunch could be helped out by Evander Kane, who’s expected to need surgery and will likely start the season on long-term injured reserve. But if Kane and his $5.125MM cap hit aren’t expected to miss the entire season, they’ll still need space to activate him at some point.
On St. Louis’ end, it’s now clear why GM Doug Armstrong was intent on keeping his options open financially this summer, shedding some bad deals for slightly more cost-effective ones. The Blues have $7.34MM in projected cap space, per PuckPedia, ninth-most in the league. It’s enough to take on the AAVs for Broberg and Holloway without any corresponding moves, and they could end up with even more flexibility should defenseman Torey Krug require surgery to address pre-arthritic conditions in his left ankle. That would cost him the entire 2024-25 season and make him eligible for LTIR, allowing them to use his $6.5MM cap hit for relief.
Failing to match either would be a tough proposition for the Oilers, who selected Broberg eighth overall in 2019 and Holloway at 14th overall in 2020. Both are on their way to becoming everyday NHL contributors, with Holloway appearing in all 25 playoff games for Edmonton and Broberg pushing for more NHL minutes after excelling with the Oilers’ AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, last season.
Edmonton’s Cap Planning Could Be Hindered By An Offer Sheet
While offer sheets are few and far between in the NHL, all it takes is one team that decides to try to disrupt things and sign a player on a cap-strapped team to an offer sheet to change things. Looking at who is left, Edmonton is a team that would find themselves in a tough spot if one of their restricted free agents, defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway, were to eventually sign an offer sheet with another team.
Even after moving out Ryan McLeod to Buffalo earlier this summer, the Oilers currently find themselves projected over the salary cap by $354K, per PuckPedia, and that’s with a 21-player roster. While there has been plenty of speculation that winger Evander Kane could be on LTIR to start the season, that’s only a short-term solution as they’d have to get back into cap compliance to activate him later on. The fact they went and moved McLeod out suggests that they don’t expect Kane to miss the entire year so they’ll have to drop below the $88MM Upper Limit at some point.
To that end, it stands to reason that Edmonton will be pushing for bridge deals with both Broberg and Holloway, perhaps as short as a one-year agreement to keep the cap charge as low as possible. It’s a route they took with Evan Bouchard last summer and did so in the past with McLeod and Kailer Yamamoto coming off their entry-level contracts. All things considered, they’ve been pretty consistent with that practice and understandably so.
But what if one or both of those players want the security of a longer-term agreement? At this point, it looks like the only way they’d be able to get one is by signing an offer sheet.
Granted, neither player has done enough at the NHL level to command the type of offer from another team that pushes the compensation threshold to the level of a first-round pick. But it doesn’t have to get that high to put Edmonton in a bind, assuming the players are willing to sign an offer sheet elsewhere.
Broberg only played 12 regular season games for the Oilers last season but the 2019 eighth-overall pick was quite productive with AHL Bakersfield. The 23-year-old then got into ten playoff games and played well enough that there will be teams that should be willing to take a multi-year flyer on Broberg at a salary that likely surpasses what GM Stan Bowman has in mind.
Holloway is in a similar situation. He also wound up spending time with the Condors and produced 16 points in 18 games there. But the 2020 14th pick has rarely had a chance to play in Edmonton’s top six, instead being deployed in limited minutes including time on the fourth line. The end result was a pedestrian nine points in 38 games. But Holloway was a bit more impactful in the playoffs, picking up five goals in 25 contests, giving him a bit of a boost heading into negotiations.
Again, they’re not going to break the bank with an offer sheet but they don’t have to sign a pricey deal in order to put Edmonton into a bind. Let’s say a team signs Broberg to an offer sheet at the top of the lowest threshold that yields compensation. That would be a $2.29MM price tag with a third-round pick going the other way. (Note that the signing team must have their own third-round selection, they can’t use another team’s.)
A one-year offer at that number is by no means a crazy gamble to take for a team looking to add some upside on the back end. That’s a more than reasonable price, both in terms of salary and draft pick compensation. It’s safe to assume that $2.29MM is a fair bit higher than what’s currently budgeted for Broberg; Edmonton might be hoping for half of that. If they match (and they almost certainly would), now their overage surpasses $2.64MM with Holloway still to sign.
Now let’s run Holloway through that same scenario, signing a one-year, $2.29MM offer sheet (with the same team after Broberg is matched or someone else). Again, that’s a more than reasonable offer to try to get a fairly recent first-round pick at a fairly low acquisition cost. And again, while they’d be a near lock to match, doing so then pushes their overage to $4.93MM.
While Kane potentially starting on LTIR would allow them to narrowly squeak under the cap to start the season, they’d be forced to carry a maximum of one extra skater for that time and then need to cut nearly $5MM upon Kane’s return. That’s a task that’s much easier said than done in-season without taking away a core player.
If Broberg and/or Holloway were to sign a multi-year offer sheet where the compensation would push into the next threshold, we’d be looking at more than $2.29MM and less than $4.58MM with the compensation being a second-round selection. We’ve already seen what offers at the lower end of that range could do, going higher would put them in more of a bind, making it harder to keep their team intact while matching the offer.
Again, this is something that is unlikely to happen and even if it did, Edmonton would almost certainly match. But if a team is looking to wreak some havoc on a rival’s cap structure, this is one way to try to do it, assuming they could get the player to put pen to paper on an offer sheet.