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Updated 2018 Entry Draft Pick Breakdown

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Now that the trade deadline has passed and we’ve seen teams designate themselves as buyers or sellers, we can start to take a look at what is to come next. For many teams that’s the NHL Entry Draft, held on June 22-23 in Dallas this year. The 2018 draft class looks to be a very interesting one, headlined by the superstar defensive prospect Rasmus Dahlin. For months now Dahlin has stood alone at the top of the projections, though there are dozens of other very interesting prospects up for grabs.

After many picks changed hands today, what follows is the updated breakdown of 2018 selections for each team (via CapFriendly):

Anaheim Ducks (7):

ANA 1st, ANA 2nd, ANA 3rd, NJD 3rd, ANA 4th, ANA 5th, ANA 6th

Arizona Coyotes (6):

ARZ 1st, MIN 2nd, ARZ 3rd, ARZ 4th, ARZ 6th, ARZ 7th

Boston Bruins (5):

BOS 2nd, FLA 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th

Buffalo Sabres (7):

BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 4th, MIN 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

Calgary Flames (5):

CGY 3rd, CGY 4th, FLA 4th, CGY 6th, CGY 7th

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Calgary Flames Willing To Listen On Jon Gillies, David Rittich

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As we discussed recently, the Calgary Flames are in for a long wait at the NHL Entry Draft in June. The team already dealt away their first and second-round picks, and could find themselves without a third-round selection depending on their playoff push. Because of that lack of draft capital, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) reports that they would be willing to listen on trade proposals including goaltending prospects Jon Gillies and David Rittich. Though they’re not shopping either netminder, they aren’t hanging up the phone either if the trade is for a scoring winger.

Gillies and Rittich are both set to become restricted free agents this summer, and are just two names in a long goaltending pipeline that also includes top prospect Tyler Parsons and project Mason McDonald, both second-round picks that still have huge potential in goal. Though current NHL starter Mike Smith may not have much longer at the Vezina-caliber he’s shown this season, the Flames have an impressive depth chart and could afford to lose a single name.

Gillies, 24, only has two NHL games under his belt so far but has performed admirably in the AHL since leaving Providence College. With a .915 save percentage this season for the Stockton Heat and a massive 6’6″ frame he could be very intriguing to teams looking for a future in goal.

Rittich, 25, is a very different story after signing out of the Czech Republic in 2016. The 6’3″ goaltender has immediately taken to North American hockey, posting impressive numbers in the minor leagues and in a short tenure as Flames’ backup this season.

If Calgary is to wave one of their young goaltenders in trade talks, it would be interesting to see if they added a veteran option somewhere else in case Smith was to suffer an injury. Otherwise they’d be relying on a fairly inexperienced goaltender in a season that isn’t lost just yet. Calgary sits just barely out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference, and still has plans to contend for the Stanley Cup this season.

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

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Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

  • First pick: 90 percent,
  • Second pick: 60 percent
  • Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
  • Picks 5-20: 5 percent
  • Picks 21-30: 2 percent
  • Picks 31-60: 1 percent
  • Picks 61+:  .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

Calgary Flames Face Long Wait At 2018 Draft

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When the Calgary Flames traded away their 2018 first and second round picks for Travis Hamonic, they thought they were adding one of the final pieces to a puzzle that was destined for the playoffs. The addition was coming right on the heels of another deal, one to finally get an All-Star level goaltender in Mike Smith. That trade had come just a week earlier, and had included a conditional draft pick of its own.

Now, as the Flames lost their sixth game in a row last night and find themselves looking up at several teams between them and the final playoff spot, they could be in for quite a long wait on draft day. As Ryan Pike of The Hockey Writers confirmed today, the third-round pick traded for Smith is actually a 2018 selection if Calgary misses the playoffs. It only transfers to 2019 (and moves up to the second round) if the team makes the playoffs this season. That means, that if the team misses out on the postseason tournament this spring they won’t have a selection until round four in June.

Sitting through three straight rounds isn’t fun in any draft, but especially not one where you have a chance at winning the draft lottery and moving up in round one. In the 2018 class, the first round is filled with some incredible talents at the top and should have interesting prospects throughout. It also could have some big names available as teams try to change their structures going forward, something Calgary won’t be able to take part in, unless to sacrifice even more futures down the road.

Obviously, making the playoffs is still a possibility. Nothing is set in stone, but the next few weeks should be telling for the club. After Saturday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks, the Flames will hit the road for a six-game trip through much of the east coast. If they don’t turn things around during it, they could be looking for a way to reclaim some draft picks at the deadline instead of adding for that postseason run they thought they were destined for.

Coyotes Notes: Perlini, Richardson, Draft Options

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While many would be quick to call Clayton Keller the Arizona Coyotes’ best young player, his teammate has quietly taken up the mantle of being the franchise’s all-time best young goal-scorer. AZSports’ Craig Morgan noted last night that Brendan Perlini’s 28th career goal in his 100th NHL game is most among ’Yotes alums in their first 100 games. Perlini passed up Peter Mueller, who had 27 in 100, a player who burned bright, but burned out young and was out of the NHL after his first five seasons. Arizona surely hopes that Perlini has more longevity and would especially be excited if he kept up his current level of play, having scored a goal in four straight games. Meanwhile, Keller surely has his eye on soon taking Perlini’s title; the 19-year-old has 14 goals through his first 53 games, so he’ll have to pick up the pace this season into next season.

  • Morgan was also the first to announce that Brad Richardson would not return to last night’s game after suffering an upper-body injury. There has been no update on Richardson’s status yet, but it would be no surprise if the veteran forward is out of the lineup for a substantial amount of time yet again. Richardson has had a tough go of it lately, missing six games due to injury this year after missing a whopping 66 games last year. Richardson has also struggled to produce with only nine points through 44 games. Nevertheless, the Coyotes are surely hoping that Richardson makes a speedy recovery with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. With so few pending unrestricted free agents on the roster – Richardson, Antti Raanta, Luke Schenn, Zac Rinaldo – GM John Chayka would like to be able to move out as many as possible, unless his plan is make some larger deals involving his plethora of younger players.
  • In reality, the 2017-18 has long been over for the Coyotes and their next event of note is the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Though the lottery could throw a wrench in their plans, Arizona is in the best position of any team to land the prize of the draft, Swedish phenom Rasmus Dahlin. TSN’s Bob McKenzie released his Mid-Season Draft Rankings today, in which he calls this the “Rasmus Dahlin draft” and makes of note of consensus that no player has a chance to go first overall besides the dynamic defenseman. With some doubt over the future of All-Star Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chayka would like nothing more than to select a potential replacement in Dahlin. At the very least, the worst record in the NHL will guarantee the Coyotes a top-four pick and, as McKenzie specifies, one of the trio of forwards that make up the next tier of elite prospects behind Dahlin – Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk.

Snapshots: Rangers, Dahlin, Johnson

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The New York Rangers are currently just a single point out of a playoff spot, and two points out of second place in the Metropolitan Division, but according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post that won’t make them buyers at the deadline. In fact, Brooks writes that the Rangers are preparing to “blow it up” and are willing to deal Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello along with their rental options.

It’s not the first time we’ve heard McDonagh’s name mentioned, as he currently sits tenth on the TSN Trade Bait board, but is still might come as a surprise. The Rangers captain has logged 24 minutes a night again this season, and currently has 24 points through 45 games. While he may not match his career-high of 14 goals, he’s certainly a bargain at his $4.7MM cap hit this year and next.

  • Welcome to “the Rasmus Dahlin draft” writes TSN insider Bob McKenzie, who released his early rankings for the 2018 NHL Entry Draft today. Dahlin tops the board like everywhere else, but McKenzie’s rankings do differ from some of the other leading sources. Perhaps most notably is Ryan Merkley at #11, as the dynamic Guelph defenseman has slipped to the back half of the first round in most other rankings. McKenzie explains why, noting Merkley’s perceived attitude problem and temperament as potential reasons for his fall.
  • Darren Dreger was on TSN 1050 radio today, and said that he’d be “shocked” if the Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Lou Lamoriello hadn’t called on Jack Johnson from the Columbus Blue Jackets. As noted in our most recent live chat, Johnson does seem like a pretty good fit for the Maple Leafs down the stretch as he tries to secure a long-term contract this summer. Johnson is looking for an opportunity to play a big role somewhere, and the Maple Leafs have had a revolving door in the back half of their defense corps. Still, with Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev returning from injury soon and Travis Dermott showing he’s ready for the NHL, the Maple Leafs aren’t guaranteed to be on the market any longer.

Luke Tuch Commits To Boston University

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While rookie forward Alex Tuch is making a name for himself with the Vegas Golden Knights this season, his younger brother is hoping to follow in his footsteps by joining one of college hockey’s top programs. Luke Tuch announced his commitment to Boston University today, as he begins to map out his own road to the NHL.

The commitment is curious in many ways though. The first oddity of Tuch’s decision is the age that he is making it. Tuch is just 15 years old and, while hockey is perhaps the most genetic sport in the world, has little proof of his ability thus far in his youth career outside of a growing frame similar to his brother’s and hopes that it will spawn a similar playing style and knack for scoring goals down the road. While he may have a couple of years on the youngest college commitment in NCAA history – 2018 draft prospect Oliver Wahlstrom who committed to Maine at 13 (and then de-committed at 15) – it still seems like the younger Tuch could have waited to make the decision. After all, his commitment is not until the 2020-21 season and he is not draft eligible until 2020.

It is also strange to see the brother of a Boston College alum decide to play at Boston University. Few rivalries in all of college sports rival the BC Eagles-BU Terriers feud as the two teams share a long history, a conference, the annual Beanpot Tournament, and, of course, a city. While both teams have seen multiple members of the same family play for their teams, it is far less common to see a family split between the rivals. Should Alex continue his rise to stardom and Luke reach the same level of hype his brother had during his college days, this sibling rivalry will be one that bears watching.

Snapshots: Sweden, Prospects, Coyotes

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Sweden has released their roster for the upcoming Pyeongchang Olympic Games, and even though it doesn’t have any current NHL players, it has plenty of league experience. Staffan Kronwall, Viktor Stalberg, Linus Omark and others highlight what should be one of the more powerful teams in the tournament, but one other name is the taking all the headlines.

Rasmus Dahlin, the expected first-overall pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft has made the cut and is one of eight defensemen named to the squad. The 17-year old already starred at the World Juniors and plays a regular role on Frolunda in the SHL, Sweden’s highest professional league. There is little controversy over Dahlin’s ranking as the best talent available in this year’s draft, and a good showing at the Olympics will only raise his stock even further.

  • Speaking of prospects, Corey Pronman of The Athletic (subscription required) released his midseason rankings of those already drafted, and lists Casey Mittelstadt at the very top. The Buffalo Sabres draft pick has had a year to remember, selected eighth overall, starring at the University of Minnesota, being named MVP of the World Juniors and just recently being among the nominees for the Hobey Baker award as the best collegiate player in the country. Though things don’t look good in Buffalo right now, Mittelstadt and others—including #24 on Pronman’s list—will look to turn things around in the near future.
  • Despite rumors swirling around the Arizona Coyotes, some closest to the situation aren’t as willing to point to a potential firesale of their top defensemen. At least not Craig Morgan of AZ Sports, who calls some of the recent rumors “baseless” and doesn’t think the Coyotes have done anything to “set the market” or trade Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Niklas Hjalmarsson or Jason Demers. Morgan isn’t saying that it won’t happen, just that he believes there is little fact in the rumors that have been spread recently. There’s a good reason to believe that Arizona will move some assets before the deadline, but it doesn’t appear like an Ekman-Larsson is imminent or that even a real asking price has been set.

Joe Veleno Officially Traded To Drummondville

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Though the deal was agreed to much earlier this month, the Saint John Sea Dogs have officially traded top 2018 draft prospect Joe Veleno to the Drummondville Voltigeurs of the QMJHL. The Sea Dogs will receive three first-round picks and two second-round picks in return for the exceptionally talented 17-year old, who will get an opportunity to play with a better team for the second-half of his draft year.

Joe VelenoVeleno was the first player to be given exceptional status and enter the QMJHL at the age of 15, showing why as a rookie with 43 points in 62 games. Unfortunately, his game took a step back as he dealt with injuries in his sophomore year, leading some to question the league’s decision to allow him in so young. This year, Veleno has 31 points in 31 games for Saint John, but hasn’t been able to help the team to a better record than 10-19-4, second worst in the entire league.

Drummondville will hope to get Veleno for more than just the rest of this year, as there is the potential of him jumping right to the NHL next season. The 6’2″, 194-lbs center is projected to go somewhere in the top-15 picks in June’s NHL Entry Draft, though could go as high as the top-5 should his season take off. He’ll turn just 18 in January, but has played with those older than him his entire life.

Veleno is an excellent playmaker, and smooth in everything he does on the ice. The ease in which certain parts of the game come to him can sometimes be perceived as a lack of work ethic, but coaches and scouts say the very opposite about him. Whether he does crack the top-5 on draft day is still to be seen, but his future as a professional is very bright. For now, he’ll set his sights on the QMJHL Championship with Drummondville and an appearance in Regina at the 2018 Memorial Cup.

Cole Caufield Commits To The University of Wisconsin

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The 2019 NHL Draft may seem like a long way away, as does the 2019-20 season, but the excitement is real and right now in Madison, Wisconsin. The Badgers today announced the commitment of five star prospect Cole Caufield to play hockey at the University of Wisconsin, beginning in 2019. Caufield is considered a potential top-ten pick in two years.

Caufield, 16, is a current member of the U.S. National Development U-17 Team. He and his brother, Brock Caufield, had both previously committed to Big Ten rival Ohio State University, but decommitted earlier this year. Brock, 18, announced his commitment to Wisconsin last week and will join little brother Cole in 2019. However, only the younger brother has drawn draft interest, and in a big way. A recent ranking of 2019 prospects by TSN’s Craig Button had Caufield as the eighth-best prospect. While the scoring winger lacks size in a major way – he currently stands at 5’6″, 146 lbs. – he has years left of growth and development remaining and Button believes that his offense speaks for itself regardless of his stature. Besides, the NHL is growing more and more comfortable with smaller, speedier players, as evidenced by 5’8″, 154-lb. Kailer Yamamoto’s selection by the Edmonton Oilers at #22 this past June. Like Yamamoto, what really counts is the production and Caufield has scored at nearly two points per game so far with the USNTDP. By 2019, a slightly larger Caufield could easily fulfill his draft projection.

Meanwhile, the Badgers are quickly becoming known for their ability to recruit high-end talent. The 2017-18 roster contains nine NHL drafted players, including a pair of promising Boston Bruins prospects in 2016 first-rounder Trent Frederic and 2015 sixth-round steal Cameron Hughes, and just graduated another 2016 top pick, Minnesota Wild rookie Luke Kunin, this past year. And that’s just the beginning; Wisconsin has ten 2018 draft eligible (and likely to be drafted) players coming to Madison next year, including potential first-round defenseman K’Andre Miller, and another peer of Caufield’s, a likely 2019 first-rounder, in Alex Turcotte coming the year after. These are exciting times for Wisconsin hockey.

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