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Matt Murray (b. 1994)

Atlantic Notes: Senators Coaching Search, Murray, Maroon

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The search for Ottawa’s next coach is well underway with D.J. Smith being let go back in mid-December and Jacques Martin serving in the interim role until the end of the season.  Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch suggests that long-time Senators center Chris Kelly is someone they may want to speak to.  Kelly, who spent parts of eight seasons in Ottawa and also served as a development coach with them, is currently an assistant in Boston.  Among the names speculated to also be under consideration are AHL Toronto’s Jon Gruden, recently-fired veteran bench bosses Todd McLellan, Dean Evason, and Craig Berube, along with Philadelphia associate coach Brad Shaw.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sens wait until deeper into the offseason to see who else might also become available so it may take a while yet for them to find their next head coach.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Maple Leafs goaltender Matt Murray faced shots briefly before practice today as he continues to work his way back from hip surgery, notes TSN’s Mark Masters (Twitter link). The veteran has missed the entire season and when he had the procedure done in October, it came with a recovery timeline of six to eight months.  We’re five months into that timeline so Murray still has a long way to go before being cleared to play.  With Toronto’s cap situation, they wouldn’t be able to afford to activate him until the playoffs anyway.
  • Bruins winger Pat Maroon skated for the first time yesterday as he continues his rehab from back surgery, relays Steve Conroy of The Boston Globe. He underwent the procedure six weeks ago but is still a ways from returning; head coach Jim Montgomery termed Maroon as still being week-to-week.  Boston picked up the 35-year-old at the trade deadline from Minnesota after Maroon put up 16 points and 71 hits in 49 games before the surgery.

Maple Leafs Notes: Murray, Giordano, Liljegren, Järnkrok

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Make it a potential fourth goalie in the Maple Leafs’ rotation. While he’s not ready to re-join the team at practice, LTIR-bound Matt Murray has begun facing shots during on-ice workouts and is slowly making his way toward a potential return to action, head coach Sheldon Keefe said today (via David Alter of The Hockey News).

Murray, 29, underwent off-season hip surgery and has remained on LTIR since July. He was not available to Toronto for last year’s run to Game 5 of the Second Round against the Panthers due to a concussion, last playing in a loss to the Red Wings on April 2, 2023.

The two-time Stanley Cup champion with Pittsburgh is in his second season under contract with the Maple Leafs. They acquired him at 25% salary retention from the Senators in exchange for future considerations in a July 2022 trade. He could not return to form with the NHL’s other Ontario club, however, posting a pedestrian .903 SV% and 14-8-2 record in 26 starts last season. He struggled with injuries throughout the campaign and, even if healthy, would have been surpassed on the depth chart by both Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll by the end of the season.

Such is the place he finds himself in now. His $4.7MM cap hit has been instrumental in helping Toronto stay cap-compliant this season, and while they’ll still have a significant amount of guaranteed relief for the rest of the season in the form of Jake Muzzin and John Klingberg’s contracts, Murray coming off LTIR and onto Toronto’s books would limit any hopes of adding money at the trade deadline. However, it doesn’t appear at this point that the Maple Leafs anticipate him back before the end of the regular season, although a return to serve as their third-string netminder during the postseason hasn’t been ruled out. He will be a UFA this summer, as will Samsonov and Martin Jones, leaving Woll as the only NHL-ready Toronto goalie under contract next season.

Other updates from the Leafs today:

  • Defenseman Mark Giordano attended practice this morning and is ready to return to the team after taking a personal leave to mourn the death of his father, per Keefe. However, he’ll only draw into the lineup Tuesday against the Golden Knights if Timothy Liljegren, now listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury sustained in Saturday’s comeback win over the Avalanche, cannot play. Giordano, 40, has seven points and a +6 rating in 36 games this season but has been surpassed on the depth chart by intended AHL depth signings like Simon Benoit and William Lagesson, the former of which has solidified himself as a bonafide top-six defender even with all players healthy. Liljegren showed dependability in a top-four role during Morgan Rielly’s recent five-game suspension, is averaging a career-high 19:27 per game, and has 16 points and a +6 rating in 40 appearances.
  • Also on LTIR at the moment is winger Calle Järnkrok, who Keefe says is making progress in his recovery from a fractured knuckle and will likely return to being a full participant in practice next week. His return won’t come until close to the deadline, but they’re getting by without him for now thanks to improving play from depth scorers such as Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and Bobby McMann. The 32-year-old had 10 goals and 19 points in 46 games before getting injured, and he’s now missed over a month, last playing on Jan. 24.

East Notes: Senators, Cousins, Murray, Palat, Sergachev

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The Senators are believed to be looking to add a veteran bottom-six forward, reports Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch.  It has been a disappointing season so far for Ottawa who is well out of the playoff picture and have already made a coaching and GM change.  With one of the younger rosters in the league, Garrioch notes GM Steve Staios would like to bring in someone to help in the room while adding some grit up front.  The Sens have limited cap space and is currently in LTIR so it will take some roster juggling to make any sort of addition to their group.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • Panthers winger Nick Cousins is in concussion protocol, the team announced (Twitter link). He was injured late in the second period of last night’s game against Arizona on a hit that has Jason Zucker facing potential supplemental discipline.  The 30-year-old has drawn the ire of a couple of opponents in recent weeks with Columbus blueliner Erik Gudbranson also taking exception to a hit.  Cousins is having his worst offensive season so far, notching just two goals and three assists in 37 games.
  • When Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving spoke with the media yesterday, he told reporters including Postmedia’s Terry Koshan that goaltender Matt Murray is on track in his recovery from bilateral hip surgery. Treliving cautioned that he still has a long way to go but as of now, there haven’t been any setbacks.  The pending unrestricted free agent is currently on LTIR and isn’t expected to play during the regular season.
  • Devils winger Ondrej Palat was a late scratch for tonight’s game against Washington with the team announcing (Twitter link) that the veteran has an upper-body injury. The 32-year-old had played in all 35 games leading into this one but has struggled somewhat offensively, collecting just 13 points in those appearances.  Curtis Lazar took Palat’s place in the lineup.
  • The Lightning have placed defenseman Mikhail Sergachev on IR, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link). The 25-year-old has missed the last two weeks with a lower-body injury so this move is purely procedural; if they back-dated it to the date of his injury, he can be activated at any time.  Sergachev has 19 points in 33 games so far this season.

Snapshots: Maple Leafs, Fleury, Murray, Ciernik, Viel

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With Ilya Samsonov’s struggles, the Maple Leafs have been among the teams that have been sniffing around the goalie market.  However, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman relayed in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that Toronto’s foray into the market was believed to be them offering up a late-round pick – possibly a sixth-rounder – but teams were seeking a better return and preferred a prospect for even the lower-end options.  Clearly, there wasn’t anything out there to GM Brad Treliving’s liking which resulted in today’s recall of prospect Dennis Hildeby, a move that is likely only a short-term option given his inexperience.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • As part of today’s roster shuffle that brought up defenseman Philippe Myers to Tampa Bay, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that blueliner Haydn Fleury has been placed on LTIR. He exited yesterday’s victory over Montreal early and it appears the injury is significant enough for him to miss at least the next 10 games and 24 days.  Fleury has had a limited role so far this season but does have four points in 12 contests with the Lightning.
  • The Stars announced that they sent down goaltender Matt Murray to AHL Texas today. With Jake Oettinger unavailable for a little longer, it’s likely this is a cap-related move and that he’ll be recalled before their game tomorrow against Montreal.  With Oettinger remaining on the active roster, they’re allowed to make this move even with their starter injured.  Murray has yet to play in Dallas this season but has a 2.86 GAA and a .908 SV% in 13 AHL appearances.
  • Flyers prospect Alex Ciernik has been replaced on Slovakia’s World Junior roster due to injury, relays Dennik Sport’s Matej Deraj (Twitter link). The 19-year-old was in his second appearance in the tournament and had one assist in three preliminary round contests.  Ciernik was a fourth-round pick by Philadelphia back in June, going 120th overall.
  • One day after being brought up on an emergency recall, the Jets announced (Twitter link) that winger Jeffrey Viel has been returned to AHL Manitoba. The 26-year-old didn’t suit up versus Minnesota and has nine points in 24 games with the Moose this season along with 70 penalty minutes.

Penguins Recall Three Players, Place Noel Acciari On IR

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The Pittsburgh Penguins’ bottom two lines will have a very different look tonight when they take on the Florida Panthers. The Penguins are desperate to turn things around after a very poor showing against the Tampa Bay Lightning two nights ago and are hoping a shakeup in their bottom six can fix some of their issues. Today the Penguins announced that they’ve recalled forwards Marc Johnstone, Jonathan Gruden, and Valtteri Puustinen from their AHL affiliate.

Johnstone is in his first year with the Penguins organization after signing a two-year, two-way contract on July 2nd. At 27 years old he has never dressed in an NHL game before, meaning he could see his first NHL action in a Penguins jersey. Thus far this season the native of Cranford, New Jersey has two goals and three assists at the AHL level in 21 games.

Gruden was acquired by the Penguins from the Ottawa Senators in the Matt Murray trade back in October 2020 after he was selected in the fourth round of the 2018 NHL entry draft. He dressed in three NHL games in Pittsburgh last season tallying zero points while averaging just over five minutes of ice time per game. In the AHL this season, Gruden has registered five goals and five assists in 21 games.

Puustinen is probably the most intriguing of the three call-ups as he has the longest track record of offensive success at the AHL level. He has started slowly this year with just five goals and five assists in 18 games but does have one NHL game under his belt back in 2022. In his only NHL action Puustinen recorded an assist in just over ten minutes of action.

The recalls demonstrate just how desperate the Penguins are to find a fix to their bottom six woes. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to find much success outside of their top two lines, and with injuries to Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, their lack of NHL quality depth is beginning to become apparent.

In a corresponding move, the Penguins also assigned forwards Alex Nylander and Joona Koppanen to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL. Many thought that Nylander turned a corner at the end of last season, but his play this year has been uninspired. He had no points in five games during this recall and looked overwhelmed on most of his shifts. Koppanen didn’t fare any better, going pointless in three games. He struggled on the Penguins’ fourth line with Pittsburgh unable to generate much of anything offensively with the 25-year-old on the ice.

Finally, the Penguins also announced that they’ve placed center Noel Acciari on the injured reserve. Acciari struggled to start the season but was starting to settle in on the fourth line when he was hurt. He also found a role on the Penguins penalty kill which has been one of the few bright spots for the Penguins this season. Acciari has been unable to dress in the Penguins past three games and won’t be eligible to get back in the lineup until next Tuesday. In 22 games this season, the 32-year-old has two goals and one assist while averaging over 12 minutes of ice time per game.

Matt Murray Undergoes Successful Surgery

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Sportsnet is reporting that Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Matt Murray has undergone successful bilateral hip surgery and is expected to miss between six and eight months. This likely means he will miss the entire 2023-24 NHL season. Murray was acquired from the Ottawa Senators in July 2022 along with a third-round pick in exchange for a seventh-round pick and future considerations. It was essentially a salary cap dump at the time by the Ottawa Senators, who retained over $1.5MM of Murray’s $6.25MM cap hit.

The former two-time Stanley Cup champion has fallen on hard times in recent years as his health has kept him out of the lineup for extended periods of time in each of the past five seasons. Murray hasn’t played more than 30 games in a season since the 2019-20 season when he was a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins. When he has been available to play, he hasn’t been able to match the levels of play that made him a Stanley Cup champion in 2016 and 2017. Murray hasn’t posted a goals-against average below 3.00 since 2019-20 and has seen his save percentage hover around .900 since 2018-19.

Murray has has struggles with his health for a long time now and one must wonder if he will be able to overcome his latest setback and get back into an NHL lineup. The Thunder Bay, Ontario native has never been able to capture the magic that he put on display early in his career and has seen his stock tumble to the point of being a cap dump last summer.

Murray appeared to be on the cusp of superstardom in 2017 when the Penguins elected to keep him over franchise icon Marc-Andre Fleury who was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft. The Penguins had signed Murray to a three-year extension at the time and thought they had an elite netminder that could lead them to more Stanley Cups. Unfortunately, Murray’s play flatlined and he was unseated as the starter by Tristan Jarry. He was then dealt to the Senators in 2020 and signed to an extension in a move that proved disastrous for Ottawa.

Leafs Notes: Murray, Muzzin, Nylander

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In an interview before training camp, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving revealed that Matt Murray would need “significant” surgery that would take months to recover from. No other details were provided, in an effort to maintain Murray’s privacy.

The Leafs shared that Murray would begin the season on long-term injured reserve back in July and have been preparing for Ilya Samsonov to take the starter’s net ever since. Little detail was provided for why Murray would be on LTIR at the time and, while this update isn’t entirely telling in its own right, it seems fans now have a sense of what to expect with one of the newest Leafs goalies.

Murray posted a .903 save percentage and 14-8-2 record in only 26 games last season, his first with the Maple Leafs. The 29-year-old goalie carries a $4.6875MM cap hit this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

More Leafs Notes:

List Of Players Expected To Start 2023-24 On LTIR

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We’re at the point in the summer where most major signings are complete, meaning only a handful of free agents left on the market could still command over the maximum buriable threshold of $1.15MM per year on their next contract. That means financial pictures are mostly set league-wide, and general managers can now focus more on the arduous task of salary cap management.

For many teams nowadays, long-term injured reserve (LTIR) is an important tool in helping teams keep below the salary cap’s Upper Limit, which is set at $83.5MM for 2023-24. It’s not as straightforward as it seems at first glance, though. Placing a player on LTIR does not eliminate their cap hit from the team’s books until they’re activated again. Instead, a team only gains cap relief if they exceed the Upper Limit, and the specific amount of relief received depends on the team’s cap situation on the day they place a player on LTIR. A more detailed explanation of how LTIR works can be found on CapFriendly.

All LTIR situations are not created equal. To be eligible for LTIR, a player must miss at least ten games or 24 days of action. However, they don’t need to be placed on LTIR if they’re projected to miss more than that amount of time. Oftentimes, a team operating far below the Upper Limit that won’t need any relief will simply keep the player on standard injured reserve, especially if they’re relying on an injured player’s cap hit to stay above the Lower Limit (set at $61.7MM next season).

With that said, here is a list of players who are projected to meet the injury requirements for LTIR to start 2023-24:

Atlantic Division

Buffalo Sabres – Jack Quinn

This offseason was a tough break for the young Quinn, who sustained an Achilles injury during offseason training in June and is expected to be out of the lineup through Thanksgiving. While eligible, he’s unlikely to actually be placed on LTIR. He’s still on his entry-level contract and carries a marginal cap hit of $863K, making a move extremely inconsequential to the Sabres, who CapFriendly projects with over $6MM in space.

Florida Panthers – Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour

The Panthers are set to begin the season without the services of their top two defensemen, thanks to shoulder injuries sustained and exacerbated during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. Combined, the players carry a rather significant $11MM cap hit, which should give the Panthers some season-opening flexibility. Ekblad’s expected to miss more time than Montour, but neither is expected to miss the whole season – both should be back in the fold by the time the calendar flips to 2024. CapFriendly currently projects the Panthers dipping into LTIR relief by $1.175MM to start the season.

Montreal Canadiens – Carey Price

The team’s legendary netminder isn’t expected to play again after a knee injury, and he hasn’t suited up since the end of the 2021-22 campaign. He’ll likely spend the last three seasons of his contract (carrying a $10.5MM cap hit) on LTIR. As we covered earlier in the week, Montreal is in a bit of a no man’s land with Price’s contract. They’ll likely either look to shed salary to get under the Upper Limit entirely (which they currently sit around $5MM over) or add money to maximize’s Price’s LTIR relief, which they could then weaponize in-season to be a cap broker for trades.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Brent Seabrook

Like Price, Seabrook will be on LTIR for the remainder of his $6.875MM cap hit contract, which expires next summer. Acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks after his injury made it clear he wouldn’t play again, Seabrook has provided additional options for cap flexibility for the Lightning over the last two seasons. Tampa is expected to use close to all of Seabrook’s potential relief to stay compliant throughout the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Jake Muzzin, Matt Murray

While not confirmed, Muzzin’s playing future remains in serious doubt after sustaining a cervical spine fracture at the beginning of last season. No recent update has been issued on his recovery, and he’s expected to miss the entire 2023-24 campaign and will spend the final year of his contract on LTIR. Murray’s situation is shrouded in much more mystery, however. The team announced last month he’d begin next season on LTIR, but no specific details of his injury were confirmed, and no timetable was issued for a potential return. Murray missed significant time last season with a concussion and an adductor injury.

Metropolitan Division

Philadelphia Flyers – Ryan Ellis

Forwards Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier are expected to return to the lineup after missing all of last season with injuries, but the same can’t be said for Ryan Ellis. President of hockey operations Keith Jones said a few days ago that Ellis is unlikely to “be able to continue his playing career because of a torn psoas muscle in his back.” Ellis played just four games for the Flyers after they acquired him from the Nashville Predators in 2021 before sustaining the career-ending injury.

Washington Capitals – Max Pacioretty

Pacioretty’s timeline for a return after sustaining back-to-back Achilles injuries isn’t clear, but he likely won’t be available to the team to start the season and should meet the requirements for LTIR. The financial circumstances surrounding the potential relief will be tricky to navigate given the performance bonuses included in his contract, however. Pacioretty should be joining the Capitals after signing a one-year deal last month, sometime in November or December if everything goes well in his recovery.

Central Division

Arizona Coyotes – Jakub Voracek, Shea Weber, Bryan Little

All three are players acquired by the Coyotes for the express consideration of helping them stay above the cap floor – which they are now far above after being big players on the free-agent market this summer. Nonetheless, all three are done with their NHL careers due to various injuries and will remain members of the Coyotes organization by contract only.

Colorado Avalanche – Gabriel Landeskog

Colorado will be without their captain for a second straight season after the winger underwent a cartilage transplant on his right knee this summer. Landeskog hasn’t played since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2022, a playoff run during which he played through a knee injury. He’s signed through 2029, and there’s still the potential he plays again, although it won’t be anytime soon.

Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks – Isac Lundeström

Lundeström projects to be on the shelf through next January after sustaining an Achilles injury during offseason training in Sweden. Given the Ducks are far from the Upper Limit, and Lundeström carries just a $1.8MM cap hit, Anaheim could keep him on standard injured reserve for the duration of his absence.

Vegas Golden Knights – Robin Lehner

All has been quiet on Lehner’s health after he missed all of last season. The All-Star-caliber netminder had double hip surgery last summer, keeping him out for the entire 2022-23 campaign. He was not around the team at all during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup, and the team has issued no updates on his recovery since undergoing the surgery last summer. Without any indication that he’s close to a return, Lehner closes out our list.

Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets

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Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.

The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.

Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.

Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.

The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.

The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jeremy Swayman

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Today, The Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman filed their arbitration numbers, and according to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Boston has filed at $2MM for one year, while Swayman has asked for $4.8MM. The 24-year-old netminder and the Bruins have until Sunday to work out a deal before they will go to arbitration.

Swayman’s number is sure to shock some people, but that is typically how this process works. The team files a lowball number, and the player files high. The arbitrator’s decision typically falls somewhere in the middle, as was the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Swayman is coming off the best season of his career and does have considerable leverage in these negotiations. The Anchorage, Alaska native posted a 24-6-4 record this past year with a .920 save percentage and a 2.27 goals-against average. His save percentage was good enough for fourth in the league trailing only Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Swayman’s partner Linus Ullmark. Speaking of Ullmark, his presence complicates the situation with Swayman because he is coming off a career year as well, one in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. Ullmark also has two years left on his contract and is unlikely to be moved this late in the summer.

The Bruins do have a bit of cap space to sign Swayman, however, they will want to keep the cap hit as low as possible since they have other pressing needs throughout their lineup from free agency departures and the retirement of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have a hair under $5.5MM in cap space and could be presented with some major challenges if the arbitrator rules a salary that is close to Swayman’s filing.

For Swayman, he will be looking to cash in on what has been a terrific career thus far. He just completed the three-year-contract entry-level contract that paid him $925K this past season, and while his filing is on the high side, he will likely triple or quadruple his salary this upcoming season.

A lot of teams will take a player to arbitration in the hopes of laying the groundwork for future salary cap management. However, in this case, Boston is just trying to stay cap compliant and keep as much of their team intact as they can.

Filings

Team: $2MM (one-year)
Player: $4.8MM (one-year)
Midpoint: $3.4MM

(via Friedman)

The Numbers

As mentioned above, 2022-23 saw Swayman have a career year, and while he was phenomenal when he did play, his sample size is still quite small. Swayman has never played in more than 41 games and hasn’t had to carry the workload in Boston since he’s always had the benefit of playing behind a bonafide number-one goaltender. There is a good argument to be made that it isn’t any fault of Swayman’s, and he can only play the games he plays. However, he is asking for starting goaltender money, and up to this point, he hasn’t been a starter. You can look to other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had star backups in Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, but both of those netminders struggled with injuries and inconsistency once they were appointed as starters.

For Swayman, this season wasn’t all that far off from last season. His save percentage was slightly better, and he lost fewer games. However, he also played behind a far superior team than he did in previous seasons. That is also something that critics will point to, Swayman plays behind one of the best teams in the league, and again, that isn’t his fault. But it could be a knock the Bruins use in the ugly process that is arbitration.

From Swayman’s perspective, despite being mostly a backup, he can point to the fact that he’s taken over the net in consecutive postseasons from Ullmark. While that isn’t proof of anything, it does give his arbitration case credibility and showcase that the Bruins view the youngster as an NHL starter.

Swayman is also not a one-year wonder and can point to a few seasons of sustained success at the NHL level. Since he made his NHL debut in 2020-21, he has posted an impressive nine shutouts in 82 starts and is second in the NHL in goals-against average with a 2.40, and he also ranks fifth in save percentage with a .920 career save percentage. Some people might point to those numbers and say Swayman is the benefactor or a good team in front of him, and that is fair. However, if you take a deep dive into his numbers, you will find that over the course of his career, he has posted a ridiculous 33.8 goals saved above expected.

It will be interesting to see how the Bruins value Swayman. Do they see him as a long-term starting netminder, or is their view that he is a strong backup? You have to wonder if the Bruins had more cap space this summer if they wouldn’t try and lock him into a long-term deal at a reasonable cap hit. But that isn’t the world Boston is living in, and unfortunately for them, they are up against the cap and up against a player who has been terrific for them for quite some time.

This is a tough case to pin down due to the volatility of the goaltending position. However, given that the Maple Leafs and Samsonov just went through this process, it seems likely that the arbitrator will rule somewhere close to the middle of the two sides’ filings.

2022-23 Stats: 37GP 24W 6L 4T/O .920SV% 2.27GAA 4SO

Career Stats: 88GP 54W 23L 7T/0 .920SV% 2.24GAA 9SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Ilya Samsonov (Maple Leafs) – Samsonov was just awarded a one-year deal for $3.55MM and is the obvious comparison for Swayman. However, it may serve as a “low-end” comparable for what his awarded contract could look like. Swayman is two years younger than Samsonov, and although he has a shorter track record, Swayman’s career numbers are vastly superior. However, if you look at just this past season in a vacuum, their numbers are quite similar. They sport an almost identical save percentage with a .01 difference, Swayman’s goals-against was .06 percent better and Samsonov dressed in five more games. A key point is the perception of the two goaltenders at the end of the year is different, despite coming to similar finales. Samsonov is widely viewed as Toronto’s starter heading into next year, while Swayman is firmly viewed as the Bruins’ backup. This perception could be a difference-maker in the eyes of an arbitrator. But, if they look strictly at the numbers, one will think that Swayman could be staring down a higher salary next year.

Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – This comparison is a bit older, but it still applies to Swayman’s situation, given the flat-cap world we are living in. Jarry signed a three-year, $3.5MM AAV pact with the Penguins after his 2020-21 season, a year where he went 20-12-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average while being named to the all-star game. Unlike Swayman, Jarry ended that campaign firmly viewed as the Penguins goaltender of the future after Matt Murray faltered in the playoffs once again. Pittsburgh knew that Jarry was their goaltender of the future and locked him up to a bridge deal. To that point in his career, Jarry had played just 62 games and had gone 34-20-4. Despite the lack of playing time, the then 26-year-old was viewed as a bonafide starter, something that Swayman might have to wait to be labeled.

Projection

Swayman has been terrific thus far in his career, however, his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $4.8MM AAV ask. However, he’s aiming high, and he has an excellent case to top Samsonov’s $3.55MM contract and Jarry’s $3.5AAV from 2020. I would have to guess that Swayman will be awarded something in the $3.55MM – $3.75MM range.

If Swayman can post numbers similar to what he has done thus far in his career, one would have to think that Boston will push to trade Ullmark next season and finally anoint Swayman as their number-one goalie. Swayman has probably earned a bridge deal at this point but given that he plays on a team as good as the Bruins, there is only so much money to go around. He will have to wait to get his security, but for now, he should get a nice pay bump next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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