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Early Notes: Lehner, Matthews, Nylander

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Last season went down as the worst statistical season Robin Lehner had during his time as a Buffalo Sabres goaltender, registering just a .908 save percentage while putting together a 14-26-9 record. His struggles weren’t just localized in the crease though, as the 27-year old explained in an incredibly open and honest piece for The Athletic today. Lehner revealed struggles with mental health and alcoholism that he has dealt with for some time, and only just started getting help for.

Though his departure from the Sabres at the end of the year may have been surprising given the team invested a first-round pick in him a few years earlier when they acquired him from the Ottawa Senators, Lehner explains it was anything but contentious. Sabres GM Jason Botterill has apparently stayed in touch with Lehner all offseason to make sure things were trending in the right direction for him, and the New York Islanders have embraced him as part of their squad for this season.

  • Auston Matthews doesn’t have a long-term extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs yet, but that doesn’t mean he’s not committed to being with the team for a long time. Newcomer John Tavares confirmed as much in an interview alongside Matthews, telling Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman that the young forward’s commitment was part of the selling process on Toronto. The two star centers seem comfortable with each other already and easily deflected any questions about the Maple Leafs captaincy going forward.
  • Matthews’ teammate William Nylander on the other hand is still not under contract and won’t be at the start of training camp as he continues his negotiations. Head coach Mike Babcock and GM Kyle Dubas both downplayed the situation by indicating that there are many players who go through this process around the league, but wouldn’t give an update as to when the Maple Leafs can expect Nylander on the ice. The young forward is looking for a long-term contract to secure his future in Toronto but there have been reports of a substantial gap between the two sides.

New York Rangers Acquire Adam McQuaid

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The New York Rangers have added some help on the blue line, acquiring Adam McQuaid from the Boston Bruins. The Bruins in return will receive a 2019 fourth-round pick, conditional seventh-round pick and Steven Kampfer.

In Boston there had been a log jam on defense since John Moore was signed this summer, with eight healthy NHL defensemen on the roster. The idea of sitting at least $4MM in cap space every night never seemed appealing, and by moving out McQuaid they’ve added some flexibility for the rest of the season. That doesn’t mean the move is risk free though, as we’ve seen several of the Bruins defenders deal with injury in the past and as Stanley Cup contenders they’ll need all the depth they can take. McQuaid, though not exactly an offensive dynamo, was a warrior on the ice who could bring an incredibly physical game and be counted on to stand up for his teammates. He was also incredibly well-liked among the fan base, though it was obvious he didn’t have a full-time role going forward.

For the Rangers, the team adds a respected veteran presence to the blue line to help what will be an incredibly young club over the next few seasons. McQuaid is under contract for just this season at a $2.75MM cap hit, but it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see the Rangers re-sign him to a short-term deal before the end of the year. New York is in a clear rebuild mode, though after acquiring several impressive trade packages last year could turn things around in short order.

McQuaid is now 31 and played just 38 games last season as he dealt with a broken leg early in the season. His career-high in points, 15, is almost a decade behind him and likely out of reach moving forward. Losing his presence in Boston won’t change their outlook for the season, but he also didn’t come at much of a cost for the Rangers. Kampfer, who will return to the Boston organization that signed him as a college free agent after four years at the University of Michigan, doesn’t have a ton of NHL upside and will likely spend the season in the minor leagues. He could be depth if the Bruins find themselves dealing with multiple injuries, but there are other younger defensemen in the organization that he’ll need to battle for that right.

Erik Karlsson Refutes Report About Canadian Cities

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Yesterday, several reports surfaced that Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson did not want to sign an extension in a Canadian city and preferred to have his next deal take him to the United States. Today, the superstar defenseman wanted to clear the air and reached out to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman to refute the report. Karlsson told Friedman that the report saying he is “unwilling to sign long-term with a Canadian team” is false, but wouldn’t go any further. Karlsson has been extremely quiet on the whole situation this summer, waiting until training camp to address the media.

Teams looking to acquire Karlsson from the Senators this offseason are likely asking about a extension, given that the 28-year old is heading into the final season of his current contract and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in July of 2019. If Karlsson was truly against signing anywhere in Canada it would limit Senators GM Pierre Dorion’s options, though there’s no guarantee at this point that the defenseman is willing to sign anywhere. With Drew Doughty, Ryan Ellis, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Ryan McDonagh all off the market after signing extensions this summer, Karlsson could find himself as the lone big ticket defensemen available in free agency.

That idea of picking your destination must be tempting, especially when you then know your new team isn’t wasting a pile of future assets to acquire you. Signing in free agency leaves the roster of a new team relatively in tact, something that no one would be able to say after trading for Karlsson. The Senators are surely looking for an enormous package in return for the face of their franchise, including roster pieces and prospects. An agreement like that is obviously affected by whether or not Karlsson is willing to sign long-term, or if Bobby Ryan is indeed strapped to him as a salary dump for the Senators.

For all the speculation that has surrounded Karlsson the last few months, the Senators captain has never said an ill word about the city of Ottawa. He and his wife live in the city and have strong ties to the community, and will likely continue to do so regardless of where he plays in 2018-19. While it doesn’t seem like a long-term extension is coming with the Senators after negotiations halted earlier this offseason, Karlsson has made it clear that he is not staunchly against playing in Canada.

The Vancouver Canucks were the Canadian team most recently linked to the Karlsson trade talks, though almost immediately came out to say they were not actively involved. Other teams that could certainly use the right-handed offensive defenseman include the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens, though it’s not clear if any have even approached the Senators about a potential trade. Karlsson does also hold a 10-team no-trade list, meaning he has at least some control over who the Senators talk to.

Latest On Erik Karlsson Trade Rumors

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After Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet threw a match into the puddle of gasoline that is an Erik Karlsson trade rumor yesterday, speculation has ran wild about where the Ottawa Senators captain will start the season. Friedman was on NHL Network recently, and reiterated that he believes the Senators are ready to move on.

A few years ago Dany Heatley showed up on the first day of camp with the Senators, and the Senators were like “can we fix this?” and they realized they couldn’t. They made the [Heatley] trade right away with San Jose. I think they’ve just decided they don’t want to carry [the Karlsson situation] into the season if they can avoid it.

Karlsson has been in the news for some time, given that the Senators haven’t been able to reach an extension with their superstar defenseman. The 28-year old is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, leave the team with little choice but to trade him for future assets if he’s not willing to sign long-term with the club. There had been talk about Karlsson potentially discussing an extension with interested teams, which would obviously increase the value of the return for the Senators, but now there may be a hitch in those talks. Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest tweets that Karlsson does not want to sign an extension with a Canadian team, which could potentially take teams like the Vancouver Canucks—who were mentioned by Friedman yesterday, but quickly denied their involvement—out of the running.

There’s no guarantee that Karlsson wants to sign an extension with anyone at present, given that he could be the big fish on the open market next summer. Now that Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis and Ryan McDonagh have all signed long-term deals, Karlsson projects to be the one real star defenseman available in free agency. At that point he could essentially choose his destination, as one would have to believe that almost the entire league would express some interest in him as a UFA.

For now, we’ll have to wait and see who rises as the front runner for a Karlsson trade and whether a Canadian team can wiggle their way into extension talks. The star defenseman has always spoken highly of his love for the city of Ottawa, but it doesn’t appear at this point like he’ll be spending the next portion of his career there.

Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Picking Up

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After the last few weeks have brought little in terms of trade speculation around the NHL, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has sparked the fire again surrounding Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators. Friedman tweets that trade talks involving the superstar defenseman have picked up recently, with Western Conference destinations—potentially including the Vancouver Canucks—as the most likely. West teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars had previously been linked to Karlsson, though it’s unclear if they’re included in the recent discussions.

For Vancouver the acquisition of Karlsson would seem unlikely, given that the team is still rebuilding and there is no guarantee that the Senators defenseman would be open to an extension. Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet tweets that Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson are all completely off the table for the Canucks, making it hard to imagine a package strong enough to beat any other contender for Karlsson’s services. Interestingly MacIntyre does not mention top prospect Olli Juolevi, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he would be available.

There are obviously dozens of other teams in the NHL who would be interested in Karlsson, though many of them won’t be able to afford an extension that could push towards Drew Doughty’s eight-year $88MM contract. Ottawa would likely receive the biggest return from a team that can immediately extend Karlsson, but that could also dramatically reduce their trading partners. The Golden Knights have the prospect capital and cap space to fit a star like Karlsson in, and the Colorado Avalanche have a trade chip that no one else in the league can match. That’s the Senators own first-round pick this season, acquired in the Matt Duchene trade from last season. After Ottawa chose to keep their 2018 pick and select Brady Tkachuk, they had to give up the 2019 pick and a potential opportunity at top prospect Jack Hughes. With the Senators expected to struggle this season—especially if Karlsson departs—the Avalanche could easily be holding a top-three pick in their pocket. For what it’s worth, Adrian Dater of BSN Denver isn’t hearing any connection with the Avalanche and Karlsson.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were the other team strongly linked to Karlsson in the past, and it’s unclear if they still pose a threat to acquire the defenseman. That would require Tampa Bay moving out other salary, but would make them an absolute powerhouse in the Eastern Conference and the favorite for a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. All of the other teams in the Atlantic Division will be hoping that the Senators’ captain heads out west and signs a long-term contract to stay out of their way.

Cody Ceci Awarded $4.3MM Contract In Arbitration

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The arbitrator has made a decision and awarded Cody Ceci a one-year $4.3MM contract. Ceci had filed for $6.0MM, while the team had countered with $3.35MM. He will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal, but is now prohibited from signing an extension until January.

That is of course if Ceci and the Senators sign the deal at all, given that it is above the walk-away threshold of $4,222,941. The Senators could decide to allow Ceci to go to unrestricted free agency instead of taking the award, though that seems extremely unlikely in their current position. The team relies on Ceci heavily as the anchor of their defensive pairing, and if Erik Karlsson is indeed traded in the next few weeks Ceci would become the de facto #1 defenseman in Ottawa. The 24-year old already logged more than 23 minutes a night for the past two seasons, though that has come with very mixed results.

As the analytical community will point out, Ceci has never put up good possession numbers through his NHL career. That assessment comes in opposition of how the Senators obviously view him, and how his skills present themselves on the ice. A good skater with a quick pass and active stick, Ceci looks like he should be a solid two-way contributor for Ottawa. With just 19 points last season—and only 14 of those at even-strength—the offensive side of his game has still never really materialized, and he’s been given more and more difficult defensive matchups. With partner Dion Phaneuf now gone, Ceci will likely be paired with either Mark Borowiecki or Ben Harpur on the second pairing (assuming Karlsson is still around) to allow young Thomas Chabot more offensive freedom.

Next summer, Ceci will be eligible for arbitration again and would only be eligible for a one-year award. Similar to the situation Mark Stone found himself in this summer, Ceci would have to decide whether he wanted to explore a long-term deal or take his chances on the unrestricted free agent market in 2020. It’s not clear if the rest of the NHL holds him as high as Ottawa does, but there’s no doubt that he would have several suitors interesting in bringing him aboard. The Senators will obviously try to re-sign the young defenseman, but as with almost everyone on their roster they’ll have to consider a trade at some point.

We examined the Senators situation yesterday, and noted that they have almost no one on the books past the 2019-20 season. That allows them to pick and choose how to rebuild their franchise after falling so far in the last year, and Ceci will be a key decision. Since an arbitration award next summer will likely be even higher than the $4.3MM, they’ll have to decide whether he’s a core piece going forward or just more trade fodder to cash in for future assets.

Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators Exchange Arbitration Numbers

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The Ottawa Senators have an arbitration hearing today with Cody Ceci to decide on a contract for next season, but the offseason doesn’t end there for them. Mark Stone, who is scheduled for a hearing of his own on Friday, has exchanged arbitration filings with the team. According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Stone has asked for $9MM while the team has countered with $5MM. As always, the decision will likely come somewhere in the middle of the two numbers, though as Friedman points out that could still make this a record-breaking case. Shea Weber’s $7.5MM award in 2011 is currently the highest ever given through arbitration.

Stone, 26, can only be awarded a one-year deal in arbitration as he is just a single season away from becoming an unrestricted free agent. That freedom could be enticing to a player who has developed into one of the best two-way wingers in the league, and is coming off a season in which he scored at better than a point-per-game pace. His 62 points in 58 games for the Senators tied him with Erik Karlsson for the team lead, while recording his fourth consecutive 20+ goal campaign. Stone also possesses an almost unmatched ability to create turnovers and strip opposing players of the puck, which has led to Selke votes in each of his four full seasons.

Even accounting for the normal arbitration practice of asking for much more than you expect to be awarded, the $9MM figure will shock some people. Only nine forwards in the entire NHL will have a cap hit of $9MM or greater for the 2018-19 season, and though an exceptional player Stone is still not in the upper echelon of NHL stars. Even if the decision lands right in the middle at $7MM, he’ll vault into the top-30 highest paid forwards in the league and set himself up for a huge contract next summer. Whether that contract comes with the Senators isn’t clear.

Last month we asked whether the Senators should trade Stone, given that he is just a year away from unrestricted free agency and the team looks like it may struggle this season. Our readership was split 55-45 in favor of a move, which may be indicative of the hesitation GM Pierre Dorion would feel. Stone can be a leader in whatever turnaround is coming in Ottawa, and is still young enough to have several prime seasons remaining after 2018-19. If the team could work out a long-term extension with him in the next few days, perhaps there would be a little bit of hope for the Senators this season. If not, a one-year award would also bring with it restrictions on negotiating extensions. Players on one-year contracts cannot discuss or sign an extension until January, at which point Stone would be just a few months away from testing the open market. The trade deadline would also be right around the corner, forcing the Senators to make a quick decision on whether they had a real shot at retaining their talented winger.

New York Rangers Sign Kevin Hayes To One-Year Deal

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The New York Rangers have settled with Kevin Hayes prior to his arbitration hearing, but it’s not for a long-term deal. According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Hayes has signed a one-year contract worth just over $5MM, which would make him an unrestricted free agent next summer. Larry Brooks of the New York Post gives a bit of detail, reporting the deal is worth $5.125MM. Hayes was scheduled for an arbitration hearing on August 2nd, which only could have resulted in a one-year contract for the 26-year old.

Hayes is coming off a season in which he traded some point production for more goals, scoring a career-high 25 times but only registering 44 points. A very useful player for the team who can line up at wing or center, there was already plenty of reason to believe that the Rangers could be interested in trading him for the right price. The team has committed to getting younger and faster over the last year, and it wasn’t clear that Hayes really fit into that plan going forward. The team also has several interesting center prospects ready to take on bigger roles, and Mika Zibanejad still signed for another four years.

A deal of this sort gives Hayes a chance to impress early in the season with improved performance, but also puts him squarely in the crosshairs for a February trade. A player many teams would love to have for a late-season playoff push, if there’s no chance of a long-term deal the Rangers would be making a mistake by not moving him for a return as they recently did with Rick Nash, Michael Grabner and Nick Holden. The team isn’t expected to really contend for the Stanley Cup again next season, but are building an incredible prospect pipeline in short order.

At a little over $5MM, Hayes is certainly an affordable target for teams at the deadline, especially if any of the salary has been given out as a signing bonus. With teams struggling to find center depth and willing to pay a premium for it when in a playoff race, the Rangers may have just secured themselves another nice package with very little risk. That’s assuming that the team doesn’t re-open extension talks in 2019, when the two sides will be able to negotiate. For now, all contract talks have to be put on hold until January since it is just a one-year deal.

With the earlier signing of Miikka Salomaki with the Nashville Predators, that leaves just six restricted free agents still scheduled for arbitration. One of those is Rangers’ forward Ryan Spooner, who is also only eligible for a one-year award given his age. The team, meanwhile, has quite a bit of cap space remaining even after adding Hayes big deal, and could take on some excess salary in trade if they are given the opportunity. For a team trying to complete a quick rebuild, getting assets by flexing their financial muscle is an easy way to speed up the process.

Cody Ceci, Ottawa Senators Exchange Arbitration Filings

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With Garnet Hathaway re-signing this morning, the next player scheduled for an arbitration hearing is Cody Ceci of the Ottawa Senators. That meeting is on the books for Wednesday in Toronto, and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports on the filings from both sides. The Senators have filed a $3.35MM ask, while Ceci is looking for $6.0MM. As usual, the ruling will likely come down somewhere in the middle of those two numbers should they not come to an agreement in the next few days.

Ceci, 24, is a player that has drawn quite a lot of attention over the years due to his continual inclusion in trade negotiations. In almost every discussion about the Senators and their pursuit of a high-end player, Ceci has been part of a potential return. That inclusion has been derided by the analytical community at times given Ceci’s poor possession numbers, but he continues to be an extremely valued piece of the Ottawa blue line. In fact, he may be the team’s top option should Erik Karlsson be traded before the season begins. That would put an incredible amount of pressure on the young right-handed defenseman, who has failed to put up big offensive numbers despite obvious ability and huge opportunity over the past few years.

Logging more than 23 minutes a night in each of the past two seasons, Ceci has been deployed in a defensive role (usually alongside Dion Phaneuf, who is now part of the Los Angeles Kings organization) to balance some of the offensive starts given to Karlsson. Though that is certainly a limiting factor in Ceci’s offensive numbers, there are other warts in his game that hinder his impact for the team and keep him from really reaching the top echelon of defensemen in the NHL. Those numbers should also lead an arbitrator to rule for much less than the $6.0MM ask, though probably well above the team’s filing as well. Ceci earned just $2.8MM last season, and should get a nice raise either way.

The Senators will almost certainly choose a one-year contract for their young defenseman, as he is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency after the 2019-20 season. Leaving with just a one-year deal will allow them to continue to negotiate with him as a restricted free agent next summer, and try to get him to re-sign long-term. Otherwise, he could hit the open market as a 26-year old and really cash in as a right-handed option. Even with his poor possession numbers, there are still many who see Ceci as a key defender for the Senators and one who could step into top-four minutes for many teams around the league.

Dean Lombardi Connected To Vancouver Canucks

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Friday: Friedman cleared things up today when he reported that Lombardi, who has been working with the Philadelphia Flyers under GM Ron Hextall, recently signed a three-year deal and is committed to his current organization. Lombardi will not be the next team president for Vancouver, a position that might not even be filled by anyone given Benning’s recent comments.

Thursday: The Vancouver Canucks made a big splash yesterday when they announced that they had parted ways with team president Trevor Linden, and immediately speculation has exploded about who could potentially replace the outgoing executive. Brian Burke was asked on Sportsnet radio if he’d be interested, given his past ties to the organization, but responded that isn’t a possibility. Instead, another experienced option has surfaced today as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has heard Dean Lombardi’s name as a “serious contender” for the vacancy. Lombardi was fired by the Los Angeles Kings just over a year ago, but has a long history of success in the NHL including two Stanley Cup championships.

It’s not clear if the Canucks would quickly move to hire a replacement for Linden, but Lombardi certainly has his supporters around the league. Jim Benning is still currently operating as the GM of Vancouver while taking on the responsibilities of team president, but there’s no guarantee he would stay on if a different executive was brought in above him. As we saw with the recent hiring of Lou Lamoriello with the New York Islanders, new management often wants to clean house when they inherit a franchise.

The Canucks have built quite the pool of prospects over the last few years, but made some head-scratching moves this summer when they handed out multi-year contracts to depth players like Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle and Tim Schaller. While all three bring a certain style of play that Vancouver may have been lacking, it’s surprising that the first two were able to secure four-year contacts from anyone given their limited upside—not to mention the modified no-trade clauses they both received. There is plenty to be excited about in Vancouver though, as Brock Boeser is one of the league’s top young players and others like Elias Pettersson, Adam Gaudette, Olli Juolevi and Quinn Hughes will soon be making their marks.

Bringing in a new voice is always risky, but Vancouver could be simply trying to insulate Benning from some of the more high-level franchise decisions and allow him focus on the on-ice product and scouting the next generation of Canucks’ players. The organization needs to find some success at some point, after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and not winning a playoff round since 2013.

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