Snapshots: Dubois, Lucic, Galchenyuk
The Los Angeles Kings and Winnipeg Jets appeared close to a Pierre-Luc Dubois trade over the weekend, but things haven’t progressed as quickly as expected. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that there is “still work to be done” and that the Jets haven’t even given Los Angeles permission to discuss an extension with the center.
Arpon Basu of The Athletic, meanwhile, tweets that the Montreal Canadiens are still open to finding a way to make it work, if the Kings aren’t able to close the deal. Darren Dreger of TSN adds that the Canadiens have re-engaged, making it unclear where Dubois will actually end up.
- One landing spot has been ruled out for Milan Lucic, as Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV reports that the Vancouver Canucks are no longer in the mix. The Canucks had reportedly expressed interest in the pending free agent forward, who will be leaving the Calgary Flames after three seasons. Now 35, there is no longer much offensive upside in the veteran forward, but he can still be an imposing physical presence on the ice.
- Alex Galchenyuk, the player acquired by the Nashville Predators in yesterday’s Ryan Johansen deal, will not be re-signed by the team according to LeBrun. His inclusion was simply to clear a contract slot off the books for the Colorado Avalanche. The 29-year-old Galchenyuk played just 11 games in the NHL this season, failing to record a single point.
Nashville Predators Hire Pekka Rinne
The Nashville Predators aren’t really the Predators without Pekka Rinne in the mix. The team’s legendary goaltender is back in the organization, named a European Development Coach and Scout today. Rinne will work out of Finland, but collaborate with goaltending coach Ben Vanderklok to help develop the club’s goalie prospects. He’ll also be back in Nashville to help with development camps this summer.
Arguably the greatest Predator of all time, and the only one to have his number retired by the club, Rinne retired after the 2020-21 season. In his 15-year career, which was spent entirely with Nashville, he posted a 369-213-75 record in 666 starts. Rinne won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goaltender in 2018, and was a finalist on three other occasions. In 2011, after posting a .930 save percentage in 64 games, he finished fourth in Hart Trophy voting.
Rinne is 17th all-time in NHL save percentage and tied with Tom Barrasso for 20th on the all-time win list. He’s now starting the next chapter in his hockey life, serving as a goaltending coach for Team Finland at the recent World Juniors and joining Nashville to see what the other side of the sport is like.
Even the press release indicates that part of this appointment is to “learn and observe,” suggesting there may be more responsibility coming his way at some point if he desires it. Regardless of role, Nashville fans will happily welcome back their franchise goalie.
Henderson Silver Knights Hire Ryan Craig
The Henderson Silver Knights are getting some Stanley Cup experience. Vegas Golden Knights assistant Ryan Craig, fresh off a championship, will transfer to a new role in the organization, moving to head coach of the Silver Knights for the 2022-23 season.
Vegas general manager Kelly McCrimmon released the following:
I have tremendous respect for Ryan Craig as both a person and a professional and believe we have an ideal coach to lead our team in Henderson. He is a proven leader who has learned from some of the game’s best coaches. He understands the importance of the AHL level both in terms of developing our NHL prospects and creating a winning environment.
While serving as an assistant in the NHL is a great start to any coaching resume, for Craig to take the next step, he likely needs some head coaching experience. He’ll get that opportunity after six years on the Vegas bench.
An eighth-round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning back in 2002 (after a successful junior career under McCrimmon with the Brandon Wheat Kings), Craig carved out a long professional career, bouncing between the AHL and NHL. In 198 games at the highest level, he scored 32 goals and 63 points.
Now, he’ll be in charge of developing the next wave of Golden Knights prospects while getting that much-needed headed coaching experience. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Craig’s name floated around as a potential NHL head coach in a few years, should the AHL experience go well.
Henrik Borgstrom Signs In Sweden
June 26: Finally official, Borgstrom has signed a two-year deal with HV71, meaning he’ll be an unrestricted free agent by the time any NHL team has another shot at him.
May 3: After seeing action in just one NHL game this season, it seemed like there was a good chance that Capitals center Henrik Borgstrom would be looking to go elsewhere for 2023-24. Rather than wait to see if he’d be tendered by Washington, it appears that Borgstrom has found his next team as SportExpressen’s Johan Svensson reports that the middleman is expected to play for HV71 in Sweden next season.
The 25-year-old returned to North America in 2021-22, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. However, after struggling in 52 contests with them, the Blackhawks opted to buy out the final year of that deal, making him an unrestricted free agent. Borgstrom quickly signed with the Capitals, hoping to push for a spot at the bottom of their roster.
That didn’t exactly happen. Instead, Borgstrom cleared waivers before the start of the season and spent almost the entire year with AHL Hershey. He wasn’t overly productive with them either, picking up eight goals and 13 assists in 55 games, hardly the type of impact he was hoping to have. That resulted in him getting just a single recall at the end of the season, playing in Washington’s penultimate contest where he was limited to just over eight minutes of playing time.
Borgstrom, who has 111 career NHL appearances under his belt, is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer and Washington could have his rights for two more years if they qualify him. At this point, the term of the agreement will likely dictate what the Capitals do. If it’s a multi-year pact, he’ll be an NHL free agent by the time it expires, meaning there’s little point in qualifying him. But if it’s a one-year agreement, it would make some sense to tender that offer just in case he has a breakout year that would get him back on the NHL radar.
St. Louis Blues Hire Alexander Steen
The St. Louis Blues are bringing back a familiar face, hiring Alexander Steen as a European Player Development Consultant. He will normally work overseas but will be back in town to help with the upcoming prospect camp.
Steen, 39, retired from the NHL in 2020 after 1,018 regular season games, 765 of which came with the Blues. Never a star player, he was one of the most consistent, versatile members of the St. Louis roster for a decade, setting a career-high with 33 goals in 2013-14. He played in all 26 games of the club’s 2019 Stanley Cup run, providing his usual strong defensive play even in a limited role.
Selected 24th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2002, Steen knows how the process goes for exciting European prospects. It took him three full seasons in Sweden before he was ready to come to North America, but that development time was well worth it.
He scored 18 goals and 45 points as a rookie and would never look back. Steen never played a single game in the minor leagues—the epitome of NHL-ready.
He’ll now try to help get the Blues’ new prospects to that point, assisting European players in developing the habits they need to succeed in North America.
Syracuse Crunch Hire Joel Bouchard
The Tampa Bay Lightning have found their new AHL bench boss, hiring Joel Bouchard to be the next head coach of the Syracuse Crunch. The team has also brought in Daniel Jacob as assistant coach.
General manager Julien BriseBois released the following statement:
The head coach position for our AHL affiliate is one of paramount importance with regards to our player development program. Joel brings a contagious enthusiasm to everything he undertakes. He is a strong leader with a proven track record in helping players and teams reach their full potential.
With him overseeing the pipeline of future Lightning players on a day-to-day basis, we expect Joel to be an important contributor to the overall mission of the Tampa Bay Lightning for years to come.
Bouchard replaces the outgoing Benoit Groulx, though his time with the organization does not appear to be up. The announcement explains that Groulx will be offered another coaching position within the Lightning, though there are no further details. Former assistants Gilles Bouchard and Eric Veilleux will not return.
The Tampa Bay development model is one to emulate, with huge emphasis put on their minor league programs. The Crunch have been one of the most consistent teams in the AHL for years now, churning out NHL-ready talents like Yanni Gourde (undrafted), Carter Verhaeghe (3rd round), Mathieu Joseph (4th round), Anthony Cirelli (3rd round), Ross Colton (4th round), and many others during Groulx’s tenure.
Bouchard will now be tasked with continuing that development and continuing to grow talent to backfill the Tampa Bay roster.
Latest On Tony DeAngelo
Two days later and no trade in sight. The Philadelphia Flyers were closing in on a deal that would send Tony DeAngelo back to the Carolina Hurricanes over the weekend, but things have hit a snag.
Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that it is likely because of some hesitation from the NHL, over potential cap circumvention. DeAngelo was meant to go to Carolina with the Flyers retaining some salary, but since he was traded from the Hurricanes less than a year ago, it raised some red flags.
As LeBrun explains, this isn’t exactly a regular situation. The Hurricanes traded him as an RFA, meaning they didn’t sign this contract, and Daniel Briere, the Flyers’ GM, wasn’t in place yet when Philadelphia inked this deal. There’s no real circumvention here, just a player that has worn out his welcome and a team looking to create cap space.
The league is expected to meet with both teams in Nashville this week for the draft, where they will have to decide. Either sign off on it early, or force the teams to wait until July 9, when the calendar year since last summer’s trade would be up.
It does still seem like things are headed in that direction, though a two-week delay can change things considerably at this time of year.
Five Key Stories: 6/19/23 – 6/25/23
With the draft and free agency almost upon us, activity around the league has started to pick up with an expectation of plenty more to come, including resolutions to trades that are reportedly in the works. Here’s a rundown of the top stories from the past seven days.
Middlemen Off The Market: This isn’t the greatest free agent crop for centers and the crop got considerably thinner over the past week with four players coming off the market. First, Montreal re-signed Sean Monahan to a one-year contract that’s worth $2MM if he meets his games played bonus, giving the veteran a chance to prove he has recovered from his injuries this past season. Then it was Buffalo’s turn as they inked long-time Sabre Zemgus Girgensons to a one-year, $2.5MM deal to keep him as a fixture in their bottom six. Erik Haula made it known that he wanted to remain with New Jersey and he got his wish, signing a three-year contract that carries a $3.15MM AAV. Then, following reports that contract talks were stalling out, Carolina and Jordan Staal were able to reach a new four-year contract, one that carries an AAV of $2.9MM and has a full no-move clause for the first three seasons.
Coyotes Make Moves: In recent years, the Coyotes have willingly taken on unwanted contracts in exchange for future assets with those players either staying on the roster or landing on injured reserve. Now, the team is changing course as they’ve parted ways with a pair of those unwanted deals, buying out defenseman Patrik Nemeth and winger Zack Kassian. The moves result in $1.833MM in dead cap for next season and $1.983MM in 2024-25. Then, Arizona opted to trade away one of their surplus selections, sending Montreal’s 2024 second-round pick to Los Angeles to acquire defenseman Sean Durzi. The 24-year-old had 38 points in his sophomore year for the Kings and could be part of the back end for the Coyotes for several years. After that, they re-upped goaltender Connor Ingram to a new three-year deal with a cap hit of $1.95MM. In 17 appearances in 2023, the 26-year-old put up a .922 SV% and if he can stay even close to that level, it could wind up being a club-friendly deal.
Johansen To Colorado: The Avalanche decided to get a head start on their center shopping as they acquired Ryan Johansen from Nashville in exchange for the rights to pending UFA forward Alex Galchenyuk. As part of the move, the Predators are retaining half of Johansen’s $8MM for the final two seasons of his contract. The 30-year-old is coming off a down season that saw him put up just 28 points in 55 games before missing the last couple of months after undergoing emergency leg surgery. However, he’s just a year removed from a 63-point campaign so Colorado is hoping that a change of scenery could give him a spark. In a move that basically amounts to acquiring him for future considerations, it’s certainly a worthwhile chance to take for them while Nashville settles for simply clearing half of his contract off their books.
Hall Of Famers: Away from the rink, the next group of Hockey Hall of Famers was announced. A total of seven people will enter the Hall next season, including builders Ken Hitchcock and Pierre Lacroix (posthumously), goaltenders Mike Vernon, Tom Barrasso, and Henrik Lundqvist, plus forwards Pierre Turgeon and Caroline Ouellette. Of the seven inductees, only Lundqvist was named in his first year of eligibility. Meanwhile, it’s the second Hall of Fame honor of the year for Ouellette who was also named to the IIHF Hall of Fame earlier this year.
Departures In Calgary? Last week, there was a belief that defenseman Noah Hanifin would be on the way out in Calgary. He might not be the only one. First, reports emerged that center Elias Lindholm hasn’t accepted a long-term extension offer from the Flames while fellow middleman Mikael Backlund may also be leaning toward leaving the team. Then, another report suggested that Tyler Toffoli isn’t likely to re-sign either. All four players are eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer but if they’re not willing to stick around, GM Craig Conroy could be busy in the coming days and weeks by sending those players to teams that they might be willing to ink new deals with.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers
The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Florida.
What an interesting year it was for the Panthers. After winning the Presidents’ Trophy, the team moved two core pieces in Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary for Matthew Tkachuk, a swap that many felt would see them take a small step back to take a bigger step forward a little later on. It played out that way early as they were out of the playoffs for long portions of the season. However, they got into the final Wild Card spot and beat Boston, Toronto, and Carolina to come out of the East. Now, GM Bill Zito has more cap flexibility than he had last summer to try to add to his roster but there are some question marks on how much he’ll be able to use which factors into in their checklist below.
Add Defensive Help
When fully healthy, Florida’s defense corps wasn’t the deepest to begin with. Now, they’re set to possibly lose Radko Gudas and Marc Staal to free agency while Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, their top two blueliners, played through serious injuries in the playoffs and might not be ready to start next season. They already could have used a top-four blueliner. Now, it’s more or less a necessity.
It’s also worth noting that the blueliner with the longest contract on their current roster is Ekblad. His deal has just two years remaining. Other than Josh Mahura, a depth defender, all of their current blueliners will be UFA-eligible when their existing contracts expire. That’s a lot of potential turnover in a short period of time.
With that in mind, while some have wondered if Zito might be interested in short-term options due to the injuries, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to at least look to the higher end of the free agent market where the top options will get longer-term contracts. Yes, those deals tend to be too long and a little too expensive but this is a franchise that doesn’t exactly have a lot of tradeable assets right now after going all-in in 2021-22. A move like that would give them a short-term lift and ensure they’ll have at least one capable veteran in the fold for the long haul.
As things stand, Florida has roughly $10MM in cap room at their disposal, per CapFriendly. They have to sign at least two blueliners (probably three) and a couple of forwards with that money but if the depth options are closer to the minimum, there’s enough room for an impact addition. Yes, there could be LTIR money available in the short term but that money can’t really be spent externally as the Panthers would have to be cap-compliant once the injured players are ready to return. Instead, any ‘savings’ there would go toward carrying a full roster at the start of the season.
Extension Talks
July 1st is the day that players entering the final year of their respective contracts are eligible to sign contract extensions. Florida has several key regulars in that situation. On the back end, Montour and Gustav Forsling are both set to hit the final year of their very team-friendly deals. Up front, Sam Reinhart and Anthony Duclair are in the same spot.
Montour’s case is going to be a particularly fascinating one to follow. For years, he had shown promise at times but hadn’t been able to consistently produce and as a result, he remained in more of a limited role. This past season, that all changed. Montour’s production exploded, going from a decent 37 points a year ago to a whopping 73. He barely cracked the top 40 for scoring by a defenseman in 2021-22 and was fifth in 2022-23. He’s on a bargain contract at $3.5MM and if they want to extend him now, it might take twice as much if not more to lock up the 29-year-old. The shoulder injury could give Zito some pause but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to get something done this summer.
As for Forsling, he has certainly been one of the best waiver claims in recent memory, going from a Carolina castaway to a 23-minute per-game defender. The 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2021-22 and put up very similar numbers this past season, showing that it wasn’t just a fluke. He is now logging heavy minutes shorthanded, making him an all-around defender. With his age and recent production, he, too, could more than double his current AAV of just under $2.7MM.
Up front, Reinhart’s second bridge contract has worked out well for both sides. He has taken his production to a new level in Florida, even after taking a bit of a step back this season. The 27-year-old has also shown that he can play down the middle which makes him much more valuable around the league with top-six centers being difficult to come by. His current AAV is $6.5MM and it would likely take at least a couple million more than that (putting him a little below Matthew Tkachuk on the salary scale) to get him to commit to an early extension.
Then there’s Duclair. The 27-year-old missed most of this past season as he worked his way back from a torn Achilles’ tendon and, unsurprisingly, he was a bit quiet when he returned before putting together a decent playoff showing with 11 points in 20 games. He’s only a year removed from a breakout 31-goal campaign which should factor into negotiations as well. Duclair intends to represent himself again in those discussions and with the long layoff, it’s reasonable to think they might agree to defer talks until later in the season to see how he fares after a full summer of recovery.
Not all of these players are going to sign extensions over the summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito get one or two of these locked up over the coming months.
Get Help For The Penalty Kill
The Panthers were one of the top teams at five-on-five this past season which is typically a good sign of how strong a team is. However, the fact that they barely picked up the final Wild Card spot is in large part due to the fact that their penalty kill struggled considerably with a success rate of just under 76%, a few points below the league average. In the playoffs, that number dipped even further to just 70.4%. That’s an area that could certainly stand to be improved.
If Florida goes and gets an impact defenseman, that should help but adding some defensive acumen to their final couple of forwards would also help. Eric Staal (a pending UFA) logged heavy minutes on the penalty kill this past season, a role he hadn’t typically played in his prime. Eetu Luostarinen isn’t a premier defensive forward either; those two led all Florida forwards in shorthanded ATOI. Filling out the depth chart with some shutdown options might take away a bit offensively but if it helps them kill enough penalties to balance out, it’ll be worth doing.
Depth Decisions
Alex Lyon more than served his purpose as a capable third-string goaltender who stepped in when Spencer Knight departed for the Player Assistance Program and even took over as the starter with Sergei Bobrovsky struggling at the time. He may have done well enough to get a shot as a backup somewhere so this is a spot that will need to be filled. A veteran depth goalie isn’t usually an important offseason add but with Bobrovsky’s inconsistency and Knight’s relative inexperience, determining and landing the top option on that market takes a higher level of importance.
Meanwhile, a decision needs to be made soon on the fate of center Colin White. The 26-year-old had an okay year in a very limited role but still provided some value on a contract that was just $100K above the league minimum after being bought out by Ottawa. Still not old enough to reach unrestricted free agency, Florida could tender him a qualifying offer to keep his rights. However, doing so would give him arbitration eligibility and bring his previous production (including a 41-point year in 2018-19) into the picture. That’s not ideal for the Panthers so they need to decide if they want to try to re-sign him before Friday’s tender deadline or if they want to cut bait and perhaps add a more defensive-oriented depth player into the mix.
These are two roles that can be filled quickly in free agency within the first couple of hours so Zito will need to have his plan in place to make sure he lands his targets (or gets White on another bargain contract).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Blackhawks, Playoffs, Bobrovsky, Goalies, Panthers, Expansion
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago and their goaltending, way-too-early predictions for new playoff teams next season, Sergei Bobrovsky’s volatility, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.
Unclemike1526: The Blackhawks have Mrazek and Soderblom-Stauber for this year. We’re stuck with Mrazek. So Commesso, and maybe Basse in the system. I think the Hawks should draft Hrabal, however they need to. I saw one mock draft saying the Hawks would draft Trey Augustine in the second round. What is your opinion of Hrabal and Augustine? I think the Hawks stay put at 1 and 19. Then they take their high second-round pick and package it with a player or more picks to get back into the late 1st round and take Hrabal or if he’s gone, Gauthier. I think that would be a great scenario for the Hawks. I think you can never have enough good goalies. Thoughts?
I like Michael Hrabal but it feels to me like his stock is soaring a bit too high right now. Yes, he’s big and big is good for a goalie but I’m not convinced he’s a 1A starter down the road. He’s raw and rangy and those players don’t always pan out. Size allows him to get to more shots but he still needs to be technically sound and by most accounts, that’s something that still needs a lot of work. If he’s a platoon player, he can still have a long and productive career but is a platoon goalie worth a first-rounder? I don’t think it is. I wouldn’t be shocked if someone picks him in the first round but I’m not convinced that it’s a good idea. In your scenario, I like the idea of trading up for Ethan Gauthier more than I do for Hrabal. If Hrabal is there at 35, grab him then.
As for Augustine, I think he might be the better goalie of the two but while Hrabal’s size has sent his stock soaring, Augustine’s size has lowered him in the rankings. He’s more of a technically-sound netminder and in a structured system, I think he can do quite well, at least as a platoon option. Chicago is anything but structured right now but any goalie being taken is going to be four years or more away from being NHL-ready. I’m betting that by then, the Blackhawks’ defense will be much better than it is now.
As for the philosophical idea of never having enough good goalies, I tend to agree if a team is trending toward a platoon as many are. The value in that approach is saving money relative to having a true starter and a backup but it also means that you need to have a few netminders in the system. As soon as one of those platoon pieces gets too expensive, the next in-house option needs to be ready for this to work as planned.
Generally speaking, there are only around 20 goalies that are picked in a typical draft year. With more teams going to a platoon system, that number should be higher. We’ll find out soon enough if that trend continues or if teams get more aggressive in getting netminders into their prospect pools.
random comment guy: I would like to piggyback off this, with the Hawks needing to reach the cap floor (roughly $16M or so), what teams will be calling to get high-salary players off their roster? I assume the Hawks will want 1-2 year contracts as it will fit their timeline. Also, do you feel that the return should be more draft picks or prospects/players?
There are a few groups of teams in the category of needing to move money. There are those that have a high-priced contract for an underachieving player that are just looking to get out of the deal. Think the Islanders and Josh Bailey. There are those that wouldn’t mind offloading an LTIR-bound contract such as the Maple Leafs and Jake Muzzin. Then there are teams that don’t want to move a player but whose cap situations are going to force their hand. Boston and to a lesser extent Edmonton are among those. Vancouver is sort of here as well although they don’t have to make a move, they just might prefer to.
I agree that Chicago – or any team acting as a clearinghouse – will be looking for short-term contracts. Why take on a long-term agreement that could be problematic down the road if it can be avoided? Sure, there could be more futures coming their way as compensation but there’s a limit to how much a team is going to pay to offload an unwanted contract and it probably won’t be enough to justify a long-term acquisition.
I’d put the Blackhawks in a spot where they should be targeting prospects. They’re not ready to push for a playoff spot yet, even with Connor Bedard giving them a big boost offensively. They’ve just gutted too much of the core to turn it around in a year. But getting more draft picks that are years away from playing doesn’t make sense either. The sweet spot for them should be drafted players between 19 and 22 (give or take a year) that are on the cusp of being ready. Those will be the core pieces that align with Bedard’s timeline and part of the core that eventually helps lead them back into contention. A year or two from now when it’s time to flip the switch, then go after the win-now players who will then be augmented by this prospect core.
M34: Waaaay too early predictions. Two or three teams from each conference’s playoff picture, that won’t make the playoffs next year. And who takes their spots?
The next couple of weeks could make me look silly on this but here goes nothing.
East: Even with Alex DeBrincat likely to be moved, the Senators can still do some damage next season. A full season from Josh Norris will help. I think they’re going to get a goalie. And with the cap space they free up from a DeBrincat swap, they’re likely to add a piece or two of note in free agency or by taking on a player in a trade. I also expect the Penguins to find a way to get back in. They have some cap flexibility this summer and while they have a few holes to fill with that money, I think they’ll be able to add a piece or two to help get them over the hump for a Wild Card position. It wouldn’t shock me to see Buffalo get in there as well as their roster continues to improve and likely has a move or two to be made in the coming weeks.
In terms of who misses out, the Panthers come to mind. I had this same concern with Boston last summer (and boy, was I wrong there) but I figured their injuries would cause them to struggle out of the gate and even though they’d be a playoff-caliber team, they’d have too much of a hill to climb by the time the team got healthy. I could see this happening with Florida. I’ll say the Islanders also just miss out. Their desired style of play is good for keeping things close but they still lack an above-average attack and their back end could be weakened if Scott Mayfield can’t be retained. They’ll be competitive but just miss out. If Boston really has to blow things up, it wouldn’t shock me if they just missed out. It also wouldn’t shock me if Tampa Bay, bereft of even more depth next season, gets bit by the injury bug and with a weaker roster, ultimately comes up short.
West: I have one team that I have a bit of confidence in that could get in and that’s Vancouver. Thatcher Demko should be better. Their offense is already strong. I don’t think they’re going to leave their back end as is. On paper, that roster should be a playoff-caliber group. Calgary is going to be forced to sell, Nashville might be bottoming out, Arizona and Chicago should be better but not playoff-ready and Anaheim and San Jose aren’t close. I guess St. Louis is my second team by default since I have to pick at least two but let’s just say I’m not typing this with much conviction.
Winnipeg is the logical team to be replaced as it sure feels like they, too, are heading for at least some sort of step back. It’d be tough to move that much of their core and improve. And if I have to pick a team for St. Louis to knock out, I guess it’d be Seattle. There’s a fine line to navigate for teams built like they are. When it works, they can be a handful but if a couple of players take a step back offensively, that could be the difference, especially with their question marks between the pipes.
PyramidHeadcrab: So what’s the deal with Sergei Bobrovsky? Every player has ups and downs, but this guy seems to swing wildly from Vezina caliber to $10MM paperweight. Has any other goalie in NHL history been so wildly inconsistent? And what might you surmise the reasoning behind it is? Injury? Personality? Poor coaching?
There’s a 33-point gap between Bobrovsky’s best year and worst in terms of save percentage. That’s definitely on the high side. My first instinct when I saw the comparables question was Ilya Bryzgalov but as erratic as he was, the gap in the prime of his career wasn’t anywhere close. Tim Thomas also has a 33-point difference but I wouldn’t put him on the same scale of wild inconsistency. Mike Smith went from .899 one year to .930 and then within a few years, was down to .904. Objectively speaking, there’s probably someone whose year-to-year volatility is comparable to Bobrovsky but one doesn’t come to mind right away. And even so, Bobrovsky’s game-to-game and even period-to-period variances still could make him unique.
He has had enough goalie coaches over his career that it’s probably not that. I don’t think it’s injury-related either. I think it’s a confidence thing. Some players rattle easy and he might be one of them; a bad goal bugs him and eventually it nosedives into another bad one, then another, etc. On the flip side, a few big saves beget a few more big saves and then he gets on a roll. Goaltending is just a weird position and there isn’t necessarily a lot of predictability involved other than to say there shouldn’t be much in the way of predictability. This JFresh article from 2020 (Bobrovsky’s first season with Florida) better describes the volatility of the position. Bobrovsky manages to take that to a whole other level.
The Duke: Crystal Ball – Goaltenders Edition: Where do Gibson, Saros, UPL, and Hill play next season – and how successful will each be?
John Gibson – I guess the ball doesn’t get to say Anaheim anymore, does it? Let’s go with Pittsburgh with the Ducks retaining a small percentage of the deal to get the net cost closer to $5.5MM. Playing behind a better team with playoff aspirations, he adds 13 points to his save percentage of .899, giving the Penguins a net gain on their team save percentage and that’s enough of a difference to get them a few more wins in the standings.
Juuse Saros – Nashville is moving a lot of players but this is one of those cases where they’re not going to get a max return if they move him now. Not with Connor Hellebuyck out there; there are only a handful of teams that will be willing to pay up for a true starter. He might not finish the season there but he should start it there. With a weaker group in front of him, he loses a few points off the .919 SV% he put up last season. That’s still well above average but it probably won’t be enough to get a bunch of wins unless they wind up buying big after selling big.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – There’s a definite case to be made for Buffalo to add a goaltender and if they do, Luukkonen is probably going elsewhere. But the ball sees them investigating the market and then deciding to go with Luukkonen and Levi to start, believing that if they need to make an in-season move to get a stabilizer between the pipes, they’ll be able to do so. After putting up an .891 SV% this past season, Luukkonen winds up closer to the NHL average (which should be somewhere in the .905 range).
Adin Hill – Staying in Vegas seems like the most probable scenario, especially since it appears that he’s nearing an extension. With a heavier workload than he’s used to having during the regular season, Hill’s SV% dips a few points from .915 to .911.
Red Wings: Panthers should have some cap space this summer. If they add one piece, should they target Bertuzzi or Orlov?