PHR Mailbag: Kuznetsov, Sabres, Predators, Maple Leafs, Coaches
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, Toronto’s recent history of first-round exits, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
2012orioles: Do the Capitals look to shop Kuznetsov?
First, GM Brian MacLellan needs to sit down with Kuznetsov’s new agents at Newport to see what the center’s preference is. It’s no secret that they were listening to offers on him a couple of years ago although nothing came to fruition in terms of a deal. Since then, the 30-year-old has had one strong season (78 points in 79 games in 2021-22) and one underwhelming campaign (55 points in 81 games this season).
Kuznetsov only has two years left on his deal after this one which actually helps Washington a bit if they do look to move him. Yes, his price tag of $7.8MM is on the high end, especially if he keeps hovering in the 50-60-point range but a team that’s looking for a short-term stopgap until a prospect is ready for that role could find him more desirable than someone who’s signed long-term, even if that player has a lesser AAV. I’m not saying they’d get a premium return or anything but I think there would be a decent trade market.
But at the end of the day, the answer to this question is likely dictated by MacLellan’s intentions for next season. If they’re rebuilding, he probably goes. If they’re looking for a quick retool and to get back in the playoff picture next season, I think Kuznetsov stays, barring a public trade request that might force their hand. With Nicklas Backstrom no longer the player he once was and their young middlemen (Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre) not ready for tough NHL minutes yet, they need Kuznetsov if they’re aiming for a Wild Card spot or better next season.
joebad34: Do the Sabres move on from Okposo and Girgensons? What defenseman would they potentially look to pursue in a trade or free agency to fill a top-four spot? Is Dumba a fit?
Let’s start with the forwards. If Kyle Okposo wants to come back, I think Buffalo will have a spot for him. It might not be particularly high on the depth chart but I suspect they’d like to keep their captain in the fold as this is still a pretty young roster overall. This is a group that will have playoff aspirations next season so having a veteran that has the respect of the team wouldn’t hurt. Plus, Okposo can still be effective in a limited role.
I don’t expect Zemgus Girgensons to be back though. If they want to make a push for a postseason spot, they’ll need to upgrade their roster this summer and that’s one roster spot they can upgrade on. Girgensons is a capable fourth-line pivot but after nine years with Buffalo, a change of scenery wouldn’t hurt.
As for the defensemen, Mathew Dumba is a logical target on the free agent market. He’s capable of logging big minutes and plays on the right side which is where their depth is a bit weak. I also think there’s a bit of an upside play in signing him if he can get back to his old form. The one question I have though is how much does Buffalo want to spend long-term on the back end? Rasmus Dahlin is going to be very expensive in 2024-25 as will Owen Power. Mattias Samuelsson is already on a long-term deal. You’re probably looking at well over $20MM for those three at that time; can they afford another bigger-ticket deal in their salary structure and if they can, do they want to?
As for other free agent targets, Damon Severson is also in Dumba’s tier but the same questions exist. If they want to go for a shorter-term pickup, Kevin Shattenkirk and John Klingberg are veteran right-shot players that could give them an offensive boost, take a regular shift, and balance out the lineup without being a long-term commitment on the books. If they’re shopping in the short-term tier, Anthony DeAngelo could be a trade target and if Nashville sticks with the rebuild, Tyson Barrie should be available as well. They’re both on expiring deals which might be appealing.
Gbear: Does new Preds GM Barry Trotz keep John Hynes behind the bench or move on from him?
Jakeattack: Do you think Trotz will try to move either Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene this summer?
Let’s combine the Nashville queries. Two months ago, I would have leaned toward a coaching change. The fire sale was on and if a new era was beginning, why not do so with a new coach? But then the Predators had quite a run down the stretch with the team coming to life. If Trotz thinks there’s any chance of that being sustainable, it’d be hard to move on from Hynes.
He has one year left on his deal which gives Trotz an easy option to kick the can down the road. Let him start on an expiring contract and if things go sideways early on, make an in-season change for an interim option and at that point, it’s probably heading toward a rebuild. If things go well, let the season play out and re-assess 12 months from now. I think he stays but I will say this, I am not doing well at predicting what happens in Nashville this season and if recent history repeats itself, this prediction might not hold up for long.
Unlike that coaching prediction, I’m actually confident in this next one. Yes, Trotz will try to move those two, Johansen especially. At $8MM apiece for at least two more years (Johansen is signed through 2024-25, Duchene 2025-26), they’re not getting a great return on those deals. Neither has emerged as a capable top center and while Duchene’s a capable number two, that’s a big price tag for someone in that role. That money could likely be more efficiently spent elsewhere.
Of course, 31 other teams around the league know that. The time to move Duchene was probably a year ago when he had 43 goals and 86 points. His performance this season only dipped his value. Johansen, meanwhile, is coming off a 28-point campaign, albeit one that saw him miss 27 games due to injuries. Unless they’re swapping a bad contract for another bad contract (and in a market where so many teams are capped out, that can’t entirely be ruled out), I don’t expect there to be any interest in him. Trotz I’m sure will try to move these contracts but it’ll be much easier said than done.
W H Twittle: Is there a rational explanation for the Leafs’ playoff successes?
Assuming you mean their lack of playoff success, I think there is. In those series, they lost the goaltending battle. In 2017, it was Braden Holtby allowing two goals or fewer in three games, all Toronto losses. In 2018, Tuukka Rask wasn’t great in that series but he outplayed Frederik Andersen. The next year, Rask was much better.
In the bubble, Columbus’ goalies picked two shutouts in five games. A year later, Carey Price did just enough to outduel Jack Campbell to kickstart Montreal’s improbable run to the Final. And last season, Andrei Vasilevskiy was between the pipes. All in all, three future Hall of Famers, another goalie who led his team to the Stanley Cup, and Columbus’ netminders shining.
One can discuss the coaching and the underachieving stars and that’s fine. But if you’re looking for a quick, simple, rational explanation, Toronto got ‘goalied’ in several of their recent quick playoff exits.
Gmm8811: Who do you see as up-and-coming AHL coaches? Have you heard of any recent former players that want to make the jump to coaching?
If you’re asking about up-and-coming AHL coaches that could soon make the jump to the NHL, Mitch Love (Calgary) should be the first to come to mind. He just won Coach of the Year there for the second season in a row and had a good run with WHL Saskatoon before that. Just 38, he’s the type of young coach that someone should take a chance on. I’d also put Marco Sturm in that mix. He’s the coach of the Kings’ affiliate in Ontario. With his experience there plus internationally as a coach, I think he’ll get a chance at some point.
As for recent former players, those that want to coach somewhere typically are able to do so, either at the junior or minor league level. Accordingly, I don’t really have a list of former players that are looking to join those ranks; if they want to, they’re probably already there. I’ll give you one name to keep an eye on though in Marc Savard, head coach with OHL Windsor. While they were a surprisingly quick exit in the playoffs this year, that franchise has done pretty well in his limited time there and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone offers him an AHL head coaching job or an assistant spot on an NHL bench for next season.
Kings Recall Tobias Bjornfot And Cal Petersen
With their AHL affiliate in Ontario being eliminated on Friday, Los Angeles has elected to bring a couple of extra players up. They announced that defenseman Tobias Bjornfot and goaltender Cal Petersen were recalled from the Reign while also loaning goaltender David Hrenak to Greenville of the ECHL with the Swamp Rabbits still playing at that level.
Bjornfot is no stranger to being recalled this season as this is the ninth (and final) time that he is getting promoted. The 22-year-old played in ten games with the Kings during the regular season, the fewest appearances at the top level he has had in the last three seasons. In those contests, Bjornfot picked up an assist along with 11 hits and 12 blocks while logging a little over 14 minutes a night.
At the minor league level, Bjornfot was a bit more productive but certainly didn’t light up the scoresheet either, collecting five goals and seven helpers in 50 games. It should be his final season in the minors as he’ll be waiver-eligible next season and it’s unlikely that Los Angeles will want to risk losing him for free by trying to send him down again.
As for Petersen, it has been a year to forget for the 28-year-old. After a rough start to the year that saw him post a save percentage of just .868 in 10 appearances, he cleared waivers at the beginning of December and was sent down to the minors. He fared a bit better down there, putting up a .904 SV% in 40 regular season contests but that type of performance won’t be enough to see him pushing for playing time in the postseason. Instead, he’ll likely serve as the third-string option, allowing Hrenak to go back to the ECHL where he spent the majority of his season.
Nikolaj Ehlers Skating As He Waits For Medical Clearance
TSN’s John Lu is reporting that winger Nikolaj Ehlers is skating with the Winnipeg Jets healthy scratches while he waits to see if he can get a medical clearance to return. The 27-year-old suffered an upper body injury in a game against the Minnesota Wild back on April 11th and hasn’t played since.
The Denmark native missed a great deal of the regular season with multiple injuries including a sports hernia that required surgery. He played the first two games of the regular season and then missed nearly three months before returning in January.
Ehlers was productive this season when healthy, he had 12 goals and 38 points in 45 games despite playing the lowest average ice time of his entire eight-year career. He’d been on a heater in the games leading up to his injury, having scored seven points in the five games prior to getting hurt.
Ehlers will be assessed on Monday while he waits to see if he can get that medical clearance to return to the Jets lineup. Winnipeg has battled hard in their series with the Vegas Golden Knights, including a massive comeback that resulted in an overtime loss in game three. They’ve already lost defenseman Josh Morrissey, and should Ehlers remain out, the underdog Jets will have an even bigger hill to climb if they want to survive the first round.
Joel Eriksson Ek Will Miss Game Four
Saad Yousuf of The Athletic reports that Minnesota Wild coach Dean Evason has ruled center Joel Eriksson Ek out for their game four matchup against the Dallas Stars tonight. Evason didn’t give many more details about his availability for the rest of the series, but to say that he wouldn’t be playing this evening.
The 26-year-old Swede missed six games including games one and two of the Dallas series before he returned in game three where he played 19 seconds on the opening shift and left the game. Minnesota has yet to comment on whether Eriksson Ek re-aggravated his previous injury.
Eriksson Ek had an offensive breakout this season for the Wild this year scoring 23 goals and 38 assists in 78 games. His goal totals dipped from 26 to 23, however he demonstrated a different gear when it came to his playmaking. The former first round pick also continued the defensive excellence that has seen him garner Selke consideration the past two seasons.
Minnesota will have an opportunity to put the Stars on the ropes if they can capture game four and take a 3-1 series lead back to Dallas.
Oilers Call Up Dylan Holloway, Olivier Rodrigue
In preparation for tonight’s Game Four between the Los Angeles Kings and the Edmonton Oilers, Mark Spector of Sportsnet reports that the Oilers have recalled forward Dylan Holloway and goaltender Olivier Rodrigue from their AHL affiliate Bakersfield Condors.
Due to the undisclosed injury to forward Mattias Janmark, Holloway could find himself in the lineup tonight if Janmark is expected to miss a second straight game. If Holloway does find his way into the lineup, it will be the first NHL playoff game of his career.
In his rookie season, Holloway, unfortunately, did not impress as much as the Oilers may have liked him too. In 51 games for Edmonton this season, Holloway posted three goals and six assists. He did achieve a positive Corsi For % of 54.2, but averaging just a touch over nine minutes a night, Holloway never really got that much of an opportunity for the Oilers this season. He was sent down to the AHL on February 17th, but injured himself for one month, getting cleared to return on March 15th.
In his first full season in the AHL, Rodrigue posted a solid season, going 14-14-1 in 29 games played, carrying a SV% of .912 and a GAA of 2.77. As both regular goaltenders Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell should be ready to play for Edmonton tonight, Rodrigue will likely be serving as the emergency backup goaltender for the Oilers.
David Krejci Expected To Miss At Least Two Games
Center depth for the Boston Bruins will continue to be tested in their opening-round matchup against the Florida Panthers, as Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe reports that Bruins’ center David Krejci will miss Game Four, and will not be expected back for Game Five either. This will be the team’s second straight game without either Patrice Bergeron or Krejci in the lineup.
In the point-scoring category, Krejci and Bergeron were two of Boston’s top centers this season. Scoring a collective 114 points in 148 games, these two veteran leaders sparked the Bruins’ historic run to the President’s Trophy this season. Their defensive attributes should be included as well, as they collectively put together a Defensive Point Share of 4.8.
When discussing the absence of both Bergeron and Krejci, anyone would be remiss if Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle were not brought up in the conversation. So far in this series, Zacha has two assists in the first three games, and Coyle has scored one goal. Both centermen have averaged over 16 minutes a night, showing the rest of the league how deep the Bruins really are.
With a 2-1 lead in the series before the start of Game Four, the Bruins will look to closeout the Panthers over the next couple of games. This would be the best scenario for Boston, moving on to the second round early, and allowing their two veterans to recover fully before their next series.
Jack Drury Will Not Return To Game Four
Shortly after the first period began in Game Four of the playoff series between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders, Islanders’ defenseman Ryan Pulock delivered a sizeable hit to Hurricanes’ forward Jack Drury. Drury would not return for the rest of the period, and Carolina has announced that he will not return to the game today due to an upper-body injury.
Initially, because Drury’s back was turned to Pulock, and due to his distance away from the boards, the referees initially gave Pulock a major penalty, which would have put Carolina on the powerplay for five minutes. Instead, the referees decided to downgrade the penalty to a minor, and Pulock was only sentenced to two minutes in the penalty box.
Although Drury’s numbers in the AHL have not yet transferred over to the NHL, he still has become a decent depth forward for the Hurricanes. In 38 regular season games this year, Drury scored two goals and six assists. More importantly, Drury managed strong possession numbers throughout the entire season, posting a Corsi For % in all situations of 65.9.
In this year’s playoffs, Drury has played in all four games for Carolina up to this point, without recording a point but winning all nine faceoffs that he has taken. Although not producing the points that the Hurricanes may need come playoff time, Drury’s ability to help the team possess the puck while he is out there will be something that Carolina will miss if he is unable to play in any more games this series.
Winnipeg Jets Reassign Danny Zhilkin To AHL
The Winnipeg Jets organization has announced that prospect forward Danny Zhilkin has been reassigned from the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers to the Jets’ AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose. This reassignment comes after the Rangers fell in their second-round playoff series to the London Knights in five games.
The move allows Zhilkin, 19, to be with the Moose as they embark on what they hope will be a long Calder Cup playoff run. The Moose begin their first-round playoff series against the Milwaukee Admirals on Friday, and while it’s somewhat unlikely that Zhilkin actually sees the ice, he will get a firsthand experience to see what playoff hockey looks like at the professional level.
Zhilkin is a 2022 third-round pick who has not yet made his professional debut. He earned the right to be a 2022 top-80 selection off the back of a solid 2021-22 OHL season, where he scored 55 points in 66 games for the Guelph Storm, while also serving as an alternate captain. This season, he scored 26 points in 25 games for Guelph before being dealt to the Kitchener Rangers.
Zhilkin scored 17 goals and 30 points in 35 games in Kitchener and helped them achieve one of the most significant upsets in recent CHL history. Zhilkin and the Rangers swept the first-seeded Windsor Spitfires, who were led by 2022 fourth-overall pick Shane Wright.
While their run fizzled out after that victory, Zhilkin got his first real taste of being a difference-maker in playoff hockey. Now, he’ll take more of a backseat role watching Manitoba as the team attempts to defeat the Admirals and make it to the Central Division Finals.
Atlantic Notes: Point, Cernak, Panthers Goalies
Despite slamming his head into the boards in a scary-looking play in last night’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning star Brayden Point returned to the ice and finished the game. Today, Lightning head coach Jon Cooper issued an update on his 50-goal scorer, via the Tampa Bay Times’ Eduardo Encina, stating that he is being cautious with Point’s status and hopes that he’ll be available for the next game in the series.
Any extended absence from Point would be a significant blow to the Lightning’s hopes of defeating the Maple Leafs in this series. Point is arguably the offensive engine of the Lightning since he scored 51 goals and 95 points in the regular season and firmly established himself as an upper-echelon first-line center. Should he not be available for the all-important fourth game of this series,it’s possible that his absence will be a setback the Lightning can’t overcome.
Other notes from the Atlantic Division:
- Another major Tampa Bay health-related storyline regards defenseman Erik Cernak, who hasn’t returned to the ice since he was on the other end of a vicious hit to the head from Maple Leafs forward Michael Bunting. Encina relays word from Cooper that Cernak is considered out day-to-day, and will not be able to play in Game Four, meaning Tampa will once again have to make do without one of their best defensive blueliners. That being said, he has not yet been ruled out for the series.
- The Florida Panthers could be making a swap in their crease, head coach Paul Maurice told the media (including the Boston Globe’s Matt Porter) today. Maurice said he considers most of his roster to be a game-time decision, including his netminders, meaning we could see the team give two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky the start over Lyon, whose red-hot play revived the Panthers’ playoff hopes in the regular season. Lyon’s regular-season brilliance hasn’t yet fully translated to the playoffs, and he has a .902 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against-average through three games.
Sam Lafferty Fined For Cross-Checking
While the Toronto Maple Leafs may have escaped their first game in Tampa Bay this series with a stunning overtime victory, not all of their players will leave last night’s game entirely unscathed.
Bottom-sixer Sam Lafferty, a trade acquisition this season from the Chicago Blackhawks, has been fined just over $3,000, the maximum allowable under the CBA, by the NHL’s Department of Player Safety.
Lafferty follows Michael Bunting (who earned a three-game suspension for a dangerous high hit on Lightning blueliner Erik Cernak) as the second Toronto player to receive supplemental discipline these playoffs.
Lafferty’s fine is for cross-checking Tampa Bay forward Ross Colton during last night’s game. Late in the second period, with the Lightning up three-to-two, a frozen puck from Ilya Samsonov prompted a relatively regular net-front scrum between Colton and Lafferty. They gave each other a shove as they jostled for position before Colton turned around and Lafferty delivered a cross-check to his head area.
The 28-year-old Maple Leaf received a minor penalty last night in addition to today’s fine. Under contract through next season, Lafferty has scored seven points in 22 total games for Toronto and served as an important defense-first role player. He’ll look to put this fine behind him and help Toronto take a commanding 3-1 series lead on Monday.