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Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

After getting eliminated in the first round in 2022-23, the Rangers shook things up last offseason, bringing in Peter Laviolette behind the bench.  He helped lead New York to their highest point total in franchise history while they made it to the Eastern Conference Final before falling to Florida.  GM Chris Drury has already made one move of significance with Barclay Goodrow moving on to San Jose via waiver claim but he still has some work to do in the coming weeks.

Add Scoring RW

This has been an area of need for several years now after Pavel Buchnevich was moved out with the Rangers ultimately trying to get creative to try to fill it.  They’ve brought in rentals like Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko.  They’ve moved Alexis Lafreniere to his off-wing after Kaapo Kakko wasn’t able to play his way into that spot.  They’ve tried moving Filip Chytil there as well.  While Lafreniere showed some signs of a breakout this season, the other options haven’t worked quite as well so it remains a spot to be addressed.

While it’s possible that they could leave Lafreniere there longer (allowing him to see time on the top line more frequently), it stands to reason that they’d prefer to have him on his natural side regularly.  That means that Drury will once again be trying to fill this spot in the weeks ahead.

However, one of the challenges here will be their cap situation.  While they have a little under $13MM in cap space per CapFriendly, a good chunk of that will be going to their restricted free agents.  There won’t be enough money left to go after the likes of Sam Reinhart or even Steven Stamkos should he actually test free agency.  Instead, turning to someone like Tyler Toffoli could be a suitable Plan B although fitting him into their cap structure could be difficult as well.  In a perfect world, they’ll find a way to get what they hope will be a more consistently viable top-six option, be it through free agency or a trade.

Shesterkin Extension Talks

Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has more than proven to be a quality successor to long-time franchise icon Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes, giving New York the type of long-term high-end goaltending that many franchises could only dream about.  They’ve also benefitted from having Shesterkin on a contract that quickly became a team-friendly one as it was signed just 47 games into his NHL career.

That deal, which carries a $5.667MM AAV, will be entering its final year next season, making Shesterkin eligible for a contract extension as early as July 1st.  It’s fair to say the top end of the goaltending market has slowed down in recent years after big contracts were given to Carey Price ($10.5MM per season) and Sergei Bobrovsky ($10MM per year) but this feels like the next goalie deal that could push past the double-digit AAV mark.

Bobrovsky’s contract counted as 12.27% of the salary cap at the time it was signed while Price’s deal checked in at 14%.  There is a strong case to be made that Shesterkin should be in that range as well.  Based on next year’s $88MM Upper Limit, that would put his range between $10.798MM and $12.32MM.  Of course, this contract doesn’t kick in until 2025-26 when the salary cap will be even higher.

Let’s re-run those numbers with a hypothetical $92MM cap ceiling.  Using Bobrovsky and Price’s percentages, the new range is between $11.288MM and $12.88MM.  It’s safe to say these are the comparables that his camp will be bringing up in discussions while Drury’s camp will obviously be trying to get the number a little lower.

Still, the possibility exists that Shesterkin will double his current AAV on his next contract.  Getting some certainty regarding just how much that’s going to cost would be helpful for their summer planning considering his likely raise will potentially more than cover the increase in the cap for 2025-26.

Re-Sign RFA Defensemen

With Kakko already re-signed to what would have been his qualifying offer, the list of pending restricted free agents that Drury has to contend with is pretty limited.  At this point, their two main ones are both defensemen in Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider.

Lindgren is coming off his bridge deal, a back-loaded pact that carried a $3MM AAV but has a $3.6MM qualifying offer with salary arbitration rights.  He’s also a year away from UFA eligibility.  He’s someone whose long-term value is a little harder to peg as he lacks the offensive numbers to command top dollar; he has yet to record 20 points in a season.  Instead, he’s more of a capable defensive second-pairing player so the asking price shouldn’t be exorbitant.  A long-term agreement likely pushes past $5MM per season but it’s also possible they work out what amounts to effectively a second bridge deal (potentially another three-year pact), allowing them to keep the price tag closer to $4.5MM which would give them a bit more breathing room to try to add up front.

As for Schneider, he’s exiting his entry-level deal and doesn’t have arbitration rights just yet.  He has been limited to playing on the third pairing for most of his career which doesn’t make him a strong candidate for a long-term agreement.  Generally speaking, a blueliner who has yet to average 16 minutes per game in a season will be heading for a bridge deal and this case should be no exception.  Schneider should be in line to double his $925K cap hit from his entry-level agreement on what might be a two-year agreement instead of the three-year bridge that Lindgren received when he was in this situation a few years ago.

Add Center Depth

In theory, with Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck in place as their top two middlemen and Chytil recovering to play in the playoffs, this isn’t necessarily a significant need.  However, with Chytil’s long track record of concussion trouble, they likely can’t simply assume that he’ll be healthy for all of next season.  Finding some injury insurance for him would be beneficial as a result.

Jonny Brodzinski spent a good chunk of the year down the middle but in an ideal scenario, he’s likely not on the third line with regularity.  Alexander Wennberg was brought in at the trade deadline and did relatively well but he’s probably too expensive to keep around.  Jack Roslovic, their other deadline pickup, can also play down the middle but is also unlikely to return.  Meanwhile, Nick Bonino, brought in to be their fourth center last summer, was released midseason and wasn’t replaced either.

At a minimum, a bottom-six addition down the middle would be beneficial, one who can kill penalties and fill the role that Bonino was supposed to cover this season.  Someone a tier below that who can be a serviceable recall wouldn’t hurt either.  But getting a third-line option would be some worthwhile insurance for Chytil’s concussion concerns while also allowing Chytil to play on the wing if it’s deemed a better fit for him.  They can’t do that, re-sign their blueliners, and add an impact right winger but if the latter doesn’t happen, this could be their Plan B.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metro Notes: Shesterkin, Necas, Mercer

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Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic speculated about how much goaltender Igor Shesterkin will be paid on his next contract with the New York Rangers. The 28-year-old is eligible to sign an extension on July 1st and given his play the last few seasons and his importance to the Rangers, it will likely be a record-breaking deal for a goaltender.

Shesterkin is reportedly looking for an AAV of $12MM, while most of the models Luszczyszyn uses to show his value are in the range of $9MM – $12MM annually. Given the volatility of the goaltending position, it’s fair to believe that Shesterkin could live up to a $12MM salary in some seasons of the deal, however, as he enters his 30s, it’s possible his play could fall off as it often does with goaltenders on the back half of their career.

In other Metropolitan Division notes:

  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweeted that a few teams around the NHL are wondering if an offer sheet is a possibility for Carolina Hurricanes forward Martin Necas. Carolina’s ask for the 25-year-old remains quite high, and the team has reportedly talked to almost every team around the league. Necas is a two-time 20-goal scorer who posted 24 goals and 29 assists in 77 games last season. The former first-round pick is a restricted free agent after making $3.5MM last season and will likely sign a lucrative long-term deal whether it’s an offer sheet or otherwise.
  • Dawson Mercer was reportedly never part of the New Jersey Devils trade for goaltender Jacob Markstrom (as per Elliotte Friedman on The Jeff Marek Show). There was speculation that the 22-year-old was offered at one point, but Friedman poured cold water on that rumor saying that he had multiple sources tell him that the former first-round pick was never in the trade. Mercer took a step back last season but is just a year removed from posting 27 goals and 29 assists in 82 games.

Rangers Expected To Name Grant Potulny As Head Coach In Hartford

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  • It appears that the Rangers are closing in on finding their next head coach at AHL Hartford. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that Grant Potulny is expected to become the Wolf Pack’s next head coach.  Potulny spent the last seven seasons at Northern Michigan before resigning recently, citing a desire to pursue a position in professional hockey.  Kris Knoblauch started the season in Hartford before being hired away by Edmonton while Steve Smith served as the interim bench boss for the rest of the season.

Sharks Claim Barclay Goodrow From Rangers

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The Sharks have claimed forward Barclay Goodrow off waivers from the Rangers, reports Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic. The New York Post’s Mollie Walker reported after the Rangers waived him yesterday that San Jose was likely to snag him off the wire.

Goodrow, 31, officially returns to where his NHL career began as an undrafted free agent signing in 2014. He developed into a solid checking center/winger over the course of the next six years in the Bay Area, eventually landing with the Lightning via trade in 2020 and playing an important third-line role in their back-to-back Stanley Cup championships.

The Toronto native parlayed that into a six-year, $21.85MM deal with New York in 2021, one that hasn’t aged particularly well. Costing $3.642MM against the cap, he had just four goals and 12 points in 80 games in the regular season in 2023-24.

While Goodrow repaired his value in the postseason, tallying six goals in 16 games in the Rangers’ run to the Eastern Conference Final, his cap hit had become affordable for a team in the peak of its contention window looking to make significant additions this summer. He’s never been able to match the two-way impact he had with the Lightning in New York, but he did at least contribute a respectable 30-plus points in each of his first two seasons in the Big Apple.

A major reason for his offensive decline this season was his deployment under head coach Peter Laviolette, who decreased his offensive zone start share at even strength from about 42% through two seasons to a paltry 23.5% in 2023-24, rarely getting him opportunities to contribute on the scoresheet. The Rangers forward with the second-most sparse offensive deployment, Jimmy Vesey, had 30.9% of his in-zone starts at even strength come in the offensive end.

The Sharks, who mustered just 181 goals last season compared to the Rangers’ 282, will rely on Goodrow offensively much more than that. Even if putting up points isn’t his main purpose as a versatile forward deployed in checking situations, it’s feasible that he’ll average north of 15 minutes per game and hover around the career-high 13 goals and 33 points he had with the Rangers in 2021-22.

Today’s claim also has considerable financial benefits for both teams. Most importantly, it leaves the Rangers off the hook for the remainder of Goodrow’s deal, which carried the aforementioned $3.6MM cap hit through 2027. For general manager Chris Drury, it’s a much cleaner and more preferable departure than buying him out, resulting in lasting cap ramifications for the next six years, or giving up assets to trade him away while retaining salary. It’s the closest thing to straight-up releasing a player the NHL has to offer without terminating a contract.

Meanwhile, the Sharks sat over $13MM below next season’s $65MM cap floor before claiming Goodrow. They now have under $10MM worth of cap hits to add to their books next season, a much more attainable figure for a team expected to be only mildly aggressive in free agency as they continue to rebuild.

In 268 games during his previous stint with the Sharks, Goodrow scored 26 goals and 71 points. It’s worth noting that Goodrow had a 15-team no-trade list in his contract but not a no-move clause – meaning he could have blocked a deal to San Jose if they’d been on his list. Instead, because he’s changing hands via waivers, he has no ability to nix the move.

Rangers Place Barclay Goodrow On Waivers

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7:00 PM: Barclay Goodrow may not have to spend very long on waivers, with Mollie Walker of the New York Post reporting that the San Jose Sharks – who carry top priority in waiver claims after finishing last in the league – could have an agreement in place to claim the Rangers winger. Goodrow spent the first six years of his NHL career with the Sharks, joining the team as an undrafted free agent in 2014. The 31-year-old veteran could provide great leadership to a now much younger San Jose lineup, as the team looks to return to their days of routine playoff berths.

1:00 PM: The Rangers have placed forward Barclay Goodrow on waivers, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports.

The move likely marks the beginning of the end for Goodrow’s time in New York, whether via a waiver claim over the next 24 hours or via buyout or trade. He has three seasons remaining at a $3.642MM cap hit with a 15-team no-trade list.

Goodrow, now 31, gave himself quite a reputation around the league with some clutch playoff performances for the Sharks and Lightning around the turn of the decade. After scoring the overtime winner for San Jose against the Golden Knights in Game 7 of their first-round win, a game they trailed 3-0 in the third period, he went on to play a key depth role in Tampa’s back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2020 and 2021.

That earned him his current deal – a six-year, $21.85MM pact signed with the Rangers after they acquired his signing rights from the Bolts shortly before free agency opened in 2021. At first, it seemed to pay off. His first season in the Big Apple saw him do well in a checking role, posting 13 goals, 33 points and a +13 rating in 79 games while averaging nearly 17 minutes per night. Behind the scenes, though, there were red flags. His strong possession numbers with Tampa had cratered in New York, and the Blueshirts only controlled 44.3% of shot attempts with Goodrow on the ice at even strength in his first year.

It’s been downhill from there. Goodrow’s ice time and point production have consistently slipped over the past two years, and his already underwhelming possession metrics have gotten worse. He was arguably the worst two-way player in the league this season, managing to control just 39.1% of shot attempts when on the ice at even strength. For context, the Rangers overall controlled 53.2% of shot attempts without Goodrow on the ice at even strength.

His box stats this season were unimpressive as well. He played in 80 games but mustered only four goals and 12 points while slipping to a fourth-line center role for most of the campaign. Of course, he showed up when it matters most yet again, exploding for six goals and two assists in 16 playoff games. While a good story, he shot at 40%, and his possession metrics were even worse than in the regular season. That level of offense was never going to be sustainable.

All 31 other teams can now have Goodrow for free, but with three years left on a deal that was a vast overpayment this season, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be claimed. The waiver process should allow Rangers general manager Chris Drury to gauge interest in his services in an attempt to work out a cap-clearing trade, though. Even if that doesn’t work, buying out the remainder of his contract is an option. Doing so would result in a cap credit of $247K this season before a $1.003MM penalty in 2025-26, a $3.503MM penalty in 2026-27, and a $1.111MM penalty from 2027-28 to 2029-30, per CapFriendly. It would save the Rangers an average of just $556K per season over the next six years.

Rangers Notes: Toffoli, Trouba, Pacioretty

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Peter Baugh of The Athletic speculated today that the New York Rangers will likely take a long look at free-agent forward Tyler Toffoli. The Rangers apparently considered the 32-year-old at the trade deadline but didn’t pull off a deal and Toffoli was eventually dealt to the Winnipeg Jets. Baugh believes that Toffoli’s new contract will fall into the range of four years at $5MM per season, which would require some salary cap gymnastics from Rangers general manager Chris Drury in order to fit Toffoli in the lineup.

The Scarborough, Ontario native is coming off back-to-back 30-goal seasons and has registered at least 20 goals in each of the last five seasons. Given his age, this is likely Toffoli’s last chance to score a lucrative long-term deal. Toffoli’s first go at unrestricted free agency happened after the 2020 season during the height of the pandemic, where he took a very team-friendly four-year $17MM contract with the Montreal Canadiens.

In other New York Rangers notes:

  • With Rangers captain Jacob Trouba’s no-trade protection changing to a 15-team modified no-trade clause, Baugh speculates as to what the Rangers could get if they elected to trade the 30-year-old. Trouba struggled this season, particularly in the playoffs, however, it’s hard to know how much injuries played a role in his poor play. Trouba has two years left on his contract with an AAV of $8MM, but he is owed just $12MM in total salary over the final two years. Baugh believes that the Rangers could find a trading partner but would likely need to retain salary to facilitate a move or add a sweetener to the deal. One other option would be for the Rangers to take back an undesirable contract from another team.
  • Baugh writes that the Rangers could have a interest in Washington Capitals free agent forward Max Pacioretty. New York inquired about the 35-year-old at the trade deadline, but Pacioretty opted to stay put in Washington and elected not to waive his no-trade clause. Pacioretty has overcome several devasting injuries in the past few years and managed to dress in 47 regular season games for the Capitals last season, tallying four goals and 23 assists. Pacioretty is likely in line for another one-year bonus-laden contract.

Evening Notes: Mittelstadt, Sabres, Goodrow

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Casey Mittelstadt proved to be one of the most impactful acquisitions of the Trade Deadline, joining the Avalanche in a one-for-one swap with defenseman Bowen Byram. Mittelstadt immediately stepped into a role as Colorado’s second-line center, scoring a confident 19 points in 29 games with the Avalanche between the regular season and playoffs. He was just what the doctor ordered for an Avalanche team at risk of lacking depth, but the Avalanche will now face the dreaded hurdle of having to work out his next contract. Corey Masisak of The Denver Post is confident the team will be able to retain Mittelstadt’s services, projecting the centerman could sign a middle-ground deal close to five years and $5MM in yearly cap hit.

Masisak came to these numbers while comparing Mittelstadt to the contracts Jared McCann and Pavel Buchnevich are currently on. McCann signed the five-year, $25MM deal Masisak projects for Mittelstadt, earning it after a stout 27 goals and 50 points in 74 games with the inaugural Seattle Kraken. Buchnevich carries a pricier $5.8MM price tag, though his deal ran for just four years. As pointed out by Masisak, each of Mittelstadt, McCann, and Buchnevich scored at similar paces – each above 0.70 points per game – in the two seasons leading up to their deals.

Other notes from around the league:

  • The Buffalo Sabres could be convinced to move one of their second-tier prospects to find a player that fits their system, shares Lance Lysowski of the Buffalo News. Lysowski mentions Isak Rosen, Viktor Neuchev, and Nikita Novikov among six options the Sabres could choose from in trade talks. The Sabres have already mentioned they’re open to trading the 11th overall pick and are now adding to their wallet ahead of the 2024 NHL Draft.
  • New York Rangers forward Barclay Goodrow could be a candidate for a buyout when the buyout window opens, shares Larry Brooks of the New York Post. Brooks noted Goodrow’s meager scoring with New York, including his limited 12 points in 80 games this season. Goodrow has made up for that meager scoring with a strong postseason, posting a career-high eight points in 16 games in a flurry of postseason success that’s beginning to define Goodrow’s game. He’s appeared in 97 playoff games over the course of his career, and while he’s totaled just 24 points in those appearances, he’s found a way to show up in pivotal moments. That clutch factor could make him a strong candidate to join a new playoff-caliber team should the Rangers decide to part ways with him this summer.

Shesterkin's Next AAV Likely To Be Record-Setting

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Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin is extension-eligible this summer as he’ll be entering the final year of his contract in July.  It’s well-known he’s in line for a sizable raise from his current $5.667MM AAV; Mollie Walker of the New York Post posits that it’s possible the 28-year-old doubles that amount.  She pegs $10.5MM as the likely floor for discussions, an AAV that would match Montreal’s Carey Price for the all-time record price tag for a goalie.  Considering that deal was signed back in 2017, the equivalent cap percentage today would be $12.32MM so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Shesterkin’s camp come in around that number for their initial ask.  He posted a 2.58 GAA and a .912 SV% in 55 starts during the regular season but was quite strong in the playoffs, improving those numbers to 2.34 and .936 respectively in 16 starts.

Kakko Contract Could Make It Easier To Move Him

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  • While the Rangers and Kaapo Kakko agreed to a one-year, $2.4MM deal on Thursday, that might not be enough to quell any trade speculation. As Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman relayed in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), it’s possible that this was done to provide more certainty to interested teams as to what his cap charge will be for next season without having to worry about salary arbitration.  Kakko is coming off a down year that saw him record just 13 goals and six assists in 61 games, hardly the type of production New York was hoping for from the second-overall pick in 2019.

Rangers RFA Olof Lindbom Signs In Finland

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Goaltender Olof Lindbom’s time in the Rangers organization may be coming to an end. The pending restricted free agent is heading to Europe next season, signing a one-year deal with Pelicans of the Finnish Liiga with a one-year option.

Lindbom, 23, was the first goaltender taken in the 2018 NHL Draft, taken off the board in the early second round with the 39th overall pick. Nearly six years later, it seems like a regrettable choice. Justus Annunen, Lukáš Dostál, Samuel Ersson, and Joel Hofer are just some of the goalies selected after him who have already logged NHL action and still have more to grow.

The Stockholm native waited until the 2022 offseason to sign his entry-level contract with the Rangers. He came to North America after putting up decent but unimpressive numbers as a starter in the HockeyAllsvenskan, Sweden’s second-tier pro league.

Lindbom wasn’t able to even carve out a role with New York’s AHL affiliate in Hartford, though, and spent most of the last two seasons on assignment to the ECHL with the Jacksonville Icemen and Cincinnati Cyclones. This year in Cincinnati was especially difficult for Lindbom, struggling with a .884 SV%, 3.56 GAA, one shutout and a 10-15-3 record in 29 games. He fared slightly better in limited action with Hartford, logging a .916 SV% in six games, but his sub-.900 play in the ECHL over the past two years offers little hope for an NHL future.

As such, he’s heading to Finland for the first time after spending all of his pre-Rangers days in Sweden. The 6’2″ netminder’s NHL rights could still stay with the Rangers if they issue him a qualifying offer before the June 30 deadline, although it wouldn’t surprise many to see him be non-tendered. He’ll team up on Pelicans next year with Jasper Patrikainen, another young netminder who’s had an up-and-down run over the past few years.

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