The Swiss Exodus
Professional hockey in Switzerland received an all-time high in global attention last season when presumptive top NHL Draft pick, Auston Matthews, decided to play professionally overseas a year before he was eligible to be selected into the National Hockey League. Playing for the ZSC Lions in the largest city in Switzerland, Zurich, Matthews drew quite a bit of attention to the Swiss National League A (NLA). However, he was not the only elite player in the league, nor will his transition to the NHL be much of a loss to the league. A closer look shows that the NLA is chock full of former NHL veterans and this off-season has shown that the flow of talent shows no signs of stopping.
The general consensus in hockey is that the NHL is the best league in the world, followed by the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). The KHL spans all of Russia, stretches into Belarus, Croatia, Finland, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Slovakia, and now China, and has plans to continue to grow. While there is certainly a lot of talent in the expansive KHL, the small country of Switzerland and the NLA seem to be giving them a run for their money as the second best pro hockey league in the world. Last year, Matthews was joined by former NHL stars Pierre-Marc Bouchard, who led the NLA in points, and Cory Conacher, who recently returned to North America, in the top ten in league scoring. The list does not stop there though; forwards Derek Roy, Matt D’Agostini, James Sheppard, Maxim Lapierre, defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron, goalie Cristobal Huet, and of course Swiss native Damien Brunner are just some of the former impact NHLers who played in Switzerland last season.
Even more impressive than that list may just be the list of names who have signed on to play in the NLA next season, led by Kris Versteeg. Versteeg was ranked 25th in our Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents list, but rather than wait out a slow NHL market, Versteeg signed with SC Bern of the NLA to play in the Swiss capital next season. Versteeg is coming off a 38-point NHL campaign in which he was one of the better players on the Carolina Hurricanes and was enough of a commodity that the Los Angeles Kings gave up a pick and a prospect to get him at the Trade Deadline. In fact, Versteeg has four 20-goal seasons on his resume and has never had less than 30 points in a full NHL season in his career, yet at 30 years old he is taking his talents to Switzerland. Joining him are more capable NHL veterans like Mike Santorelli, Mark Arcobello, Swiss-born goalie Jonas Hiller, and according to reports, Nick Spaling. All of those players could have contributed to any number of NHL teams in 2016-17, but instead chose the Swiss route over a quiet NHL off-season market. American Hockey League players are flocking to Switzerland as well, as the likes of Rob Schremp, Dustin Jeffrey, Bobby Sanguinetti, and Brendan Shinnimin are among many who have abandoned the North American grind for a pro contract in the NLA.
The growing trend appears to be that players who feel like an NHL contract may not be coming are choosing Switzerland and the NLA over the KHL (the non-Russians anyway). The list of incoming and current NLA players with NHL experience is impressive, whereas the KHL has imported only a few players who contributed at the NHL level last season over the course of this summer. Despite the KHL’s best efforts at growth and expansion, the Swiss NLA is making a strong push to be the best alternative to the NHL for the world’s best hockey players and is even challenging the great NHL for free agents. The NLA is on it’s way.
2015 Free Agent Signings That Didn’t Pan Out
A few of last year’s free agent signings defied the odds and actually turned into either steals for their team or at least, proved to be a solid value. A lesson taught in physics is that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The same can possibly be said for free agent signings, evidently, as for every signing that worked out there was one that didn’t. Here’s a quick rundown on a few of 2015’s free agent busts.
- Andrej Sekera – Edmonton (six years, $5.5MM AAV) – Sekera was pursued and ultimately signed by the Oilers, a team with plenty of offensive firepower but one in desperate need of defensive help. The hope was Sekera could fill a role on the club’s top pair while providing experience and stability to a defense corps short on both. While Sekera wasn’t terrible – he did net 30 points for the Oilers – he had no positive effect on the team’s possession numbers and while they did cut their GAA from 3.45 in 2014-15 to 3.0 this past season, Edmonton still ranked just 27th in goals allowed overall. It might be unfair to pin the blame on Sekera alone but his cap hit is tied for 24th highest among defensemen, suggesting he is compensated at the level of a #1 blue liner. The Oilers are paying for a top-pair defender but Sekera performed more at the level of a #4.
- Zbynek Michalek – Arizona (two years, $3.2MM AAV) – Michalek had several good seasons over two stints in the desert and after hitting free agency following a 2015 deadline deal from the Coyotes to St. Louis, Arizona elected to bring the veteran back for another tour of duty. Like Sekera, Michalek was expected to add experience and leadership to a blue line that was populated primarily by younger players. Unlike Sekera, however, Michalek wasn’t expected to be a top pair defender. Unfortunately, Michalek had a down year, one not good enough even for a bottom pair defender. He placed among the absolute worst defensemen in the NHL in CF% (Corsi For %). His 43.9% CF% was 3.7% lower than the team average, indicating he was a significant drag on his teammates while he was on the ice. Even if a $3.2MM AAV isn’t a cap killer, it isn’t good business for a budget team like the Coyotes to pay that price for poor production.
- Antoine Vermette – Arizona (two years, $3.75MM AAV) – Not singling the Coyotes out but it’s signings like this one and the Michalek contract that likely played a role in Arizona’s offseason organizational changes. At first, re-signing Vermette after a brief stint with Chicago where the veteran pivot won the Stanley Cup, made a lot of sense. He’d had a couple of productive seasons in the desert prior to the trade and on a two-year deal, the consistent 40-point production seemed well worth the investment. However, Vermette’s play nosedived last season resulting in the team buying out the final year of his contract. On the surface, Vermette’s 38 points in 76 games falls in line with his past level of production. However, his even strength scoring rate dropped to a career low 1.04 Pts/60; a figure that ranked 315th in the NHL among forwards. Vermette also struggled in the puck possession department finishing with a CF% of just 46.3%. Vermette still can be a useful NHL player but it made sense for the Coyotes to move on from that expensive contract.
- Alexander Semin – Montreal (one year, $1.1MM) – Semin has always been a divisive figure between the traditional hockey folks and the analytically minded. Traditionalists saw Semin as a supremely talented but unmotivated player who rarely played to his potential while stat guys based his value on the terrific possession and scoring rates. Regardless, after Carolina bought him out of that ill-advised, five-year, $35MM deal last summer, nearly everyone agreed Montreal’s signing of Semin to a cheap, one-year contract was a smart move. At the least the Canadiens would get middling production for low cost. At best Semin would play up to his 40-goal ability and the Canadiens would have the steal of the summer. Semin would only make it two months into the season, scoring one goal and four points in 15 games, before Montreal decided they’d seen enough. On December 10th, both sides agreed to mutually terminate the agreement and Semin returned to Russia to finish out the year. Granted, the actual financial investment was limited, but the Canadiens desperately needed a quality scorer on the wing and counted on Semin to provide that. In hindsight, Montreal would have been better off looking elsewhere for offense.
A Few Of 2015’s Best Free Agent Signings
While we might have ideas about which of this summer’s free agent signings were reasonable and which will eventually look like overpays, nothing is absolutely certain until those players finally take the ice for the 2016-17 season. A year later we can begin to determine which of last year’s free agent signings have worked out best.
It’s important to realize free agency, in practice, typically rewards players for past performances and not for what the player is likely going to contribute during the term of their new contract. Under the current CBA, most players do not reach unrestricted free agency until their late 20’s, after eight NHL seasons. Even players who make their NHL debuts immediately after being drafted are already 26 or 27 before accruing eight seasons in the league. At that age, most players are near the tail end of their prime or already beginning to enter the decline phase of their career. But with every team in the league usually willing to spend in free agency, bidding wars often break out and drive up the prices for those players available on the open market.
While every team looks for bargains in free agency, the reality is they are content to actually get their money’s worth as opposed to paying too much for too little. The following list comprises some – not all – of the best free agent deals signed last summer; the bargains as well as the deals where teams realized full value for their investments in year one. Granted, this is only after one year so some of the players on this list in the midst of multiyear contracts might not look so good down the road.
- Paul Martin – San Jose (four years, $4.85MM AAV) – Martin might have been considered among the riskiest signings last summer. Already 34-years-old, it didn’t seem prudent giving the veteran blue liner a four-year deal. But Martin was everything the Sharks hoped for and needed in 2015-16. He may have only tallied 20 points in 78 games but he finished 3rd on the Sharks averaging 20:44 in ice time per game and was a steadying influence in San Jose’s top-four. His $4.85MM cap charge ranks 47th in the NHL among defensemen suggesting he’s being paid as a top-pair defender but with 79 blue liners set to account for $4MM annually against the cap, Martin’s charge isn’t out of line. This deal might not look so rosy as Martin ages but at least for season one its among the best signed in the summer of 2015.
- Lee Stempniak – New Jersey (one year, $850K) – Stempniak is widely considered the steal of free agency last year. He went to camp with the Devils earning a job and a one-year deal worth just $850K. For their investment, New Jersey got 41 points in 63 games and subsequently flipped the veteran forward to Boston at the trade deadline for second (2017) and fourth-round (2016) picks. Yes, he benefited from receiving top-line minutes in New Jersey which may have partially inflated his offensive numbers, but he still did rank in the top-100 in Pts/60 averaging 1.76 at five-on-five. Stempniak was able to parlay his quality performance into a two-year deal with Carolina with a $2.5MM AAV.
- Justin Williams – Washingtom (two years, $3.25MM AAV) – Williams, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, was imported in large part due to his track record as a proven and clutch playoff performer. Even though the Capitals bowed out in the second-round of the postseason, Williams still showed a penchant for coming up big when it mattered most. In games five and six of their second-round playoff series and with Washington on the verge of being oustered, Williams tallied two goals and three points. He wasn’t too shabby in the regular season either. Not only did he bring his usually stellar possession game – 53.1 CF% – but he also netted 22 goals and 52 points in 82 games. That’s excellent production for the 160th ranked salary cap hit among forwards.
- Matt Cullen – Pittsburgh (one year, $800K) – Cullen went the same route as Stempniak, going unsigned through the summer and eventually accepting a PTO with Pittsburgh. After making the roster out of camp, Cullen signed an $800K deal and rewarded the Penguins with terrific production in the team’s bottom-six. Cullen averaged 1.65 Pts/60 at even-strength, finishing with 16 goals and 32 points. Cullen played a key role in the Penguins Cup championship run, averaging the eight-most ice time among forwards and tallying four goals.
Feel free to chime in on the comments section if you feel we’ve omitted someone from this list. It wasn’t intended to necessarily be a full, comprehensive list but we wanted to point out some of 2015’s best signings.
Revisiting Vancouver’s Search For Scoring Line Wing
With franchise cornerstones Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin each nearing the end of their great careers and after missing the postseason by a whopping 12 points, it would appear the Vancouver Canucks should strongly consider tearing down then rebuilding their roster. Instead, Vancouver seems to be trying to walk the fine line between being competitive today while still trying to add youth to the organization to make them better tomorrow. The signing of Loui Eriksson and the trade for Erik Gudbranson – a deal that cost Vancouver young forward Jared McCann and a second-round pick – reinforces the idea the Canucks want to try to compete for a playoff berth this year, even if they sacrifice young talent to do so.
Along those lines, GM Jim Benning has been open about his efforts to add a scoring line winger, whether by trade or by signing one of the few remaining quality free agent forwards on the market, in an attempt to further improve his club’s chances at the postseason. The club has been linked to potential trade target Evander Kane, among others, this summer but James O’Brien, writing for NBC Sports, argues that Vancouver should steer clear of the trade market in their search for an “experienced 15-20 goal-scorer,” and instead add one of the skilled forwards left in free agency.
Vancouver likely has little chance to make the postseason in a division that includes three, near-certain playoff teams and three others who may have made enough roster improvements this summer to realistically challenge. Defending Western Conference champion San Jose should be a near lock for the playoffs, as should Los Angeles and Anaheim. Arizona, Calgary and Edmonton each made major moves that could result in postseason contention. With the playoffs unlikely, Vancouver shouldn’t give up any of the few valuable assets they have in exchange for a marginal increase in their postseason odds this year.
Considering a reunion with UFA Radim Vrbata is unlikely, signing one of Brandon Pirri or Jiri Hudler – two of PHR’s five top remaining UFA’s – would improve the Canucks on the ice for the 2016-17 campaign and won’t cost the team anything other than cash. Additionally, if either player has a productive season for Vancouver, the Canucks could move them at the deadline for future assets. Remember that Hudler, a pending free agent at the time, was dealt from Calgary to the Panthers for second and fourth-round draft choices. That’s exactly the type of move a club like Vancouver should make as opposed to dealing for a veteran player under contract long term.
Hudler, a three-time 20-goal-scorer, had a down season in 2015-16 but is just one year removed from a 31-goal campaign with the Flames. He still tallied 16 goals last year in 72 games, splitting the season with Calgary and Florida. But even in a “down” year, his goal-scoring rate was still comfortably that of a top-six winger. Hudler averaged 0.79 G/60 this past season, a total which ranked 91st overall among forwards who saw at least 500 minutes of even strength ice time. With 30 teams in the league, each with three top-line players, Hudler’s goal production ranks just outside what you would expect from a first-liner.
Pirri averaged 0.74 G/60 last season, good for the 105th best rate among forwards who played 500 minutes at even strength. As with Hudler, in terms of goal scoring alone Pirri is comfortably a second-line player. His career rate of 0.91 G/60 suggests that given more ice time, Pirri would easily exceed 20 goals in a full season.
If Vancouver is simply looking for a player who can put the puck in the net, signing Hudler or Pirri to a one-year deal makes far more sense than giving up assets to acquire a goal-scorer via trade. Considering how late in the summer we are and after seeing how much of a pay cut Sam Gagner took after a lackluster season, it’s likely Hudler is only worth around $2MM per at this point. Pirri probably would sign for less than that figure. Additionally, assuming the club signs one of those free agent wingers and they go on to produce solid numbers, the value Vancouver could extract from a contender at the deadline makes this route far and away the better option for a team that should be focusing more on the future than the present.
Top Five Remaining Unrestricted Free Agents
Back in June, we posted our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents. Since then, we’ve seen 38 of our top 50 have signed in the NHL, Brad Richards and Dan Boyle retired, and Kris Versteeg signed in Europe. There are nine players from our list still unsigned.
Let’s take a look at the Top Five UFAs still unsigned:
1. Jiri Hudler (18) – PHR originally predicted a four-year, $16MM contract with New Jersey. While 46 points is still solid for a 32-year-old, Hudler is two years removed from a 76-point, Lady Byng-winning campaign, so the perception is that he’s on the decline. Meanwhile, the Devils traded for Taylor Hall and therefore weren’t looking for another scoring winger. Hudler still offers value for teams looking for a possession positive, offensive winger. Teams have to decide if they’re acquiring the 46-point Hudler, or the 76-point one. Look for a one-year contract in the range of $1MM.
2. James Wisniewski (NR) – Back on June 21 when we posted the original Top 50, Wisniewski was still a member of the Carolina Hurricanes. He was bought out by the Hurricanes on June 30 after playing just 0:47 seconds with them after tearing his ACL on his first shift. We profiled Wisniewski further here. He’s an offensively skilled, right-handed defenseman which has value, but teams will be wary of giving him anything more than a tryout at training camp or one year for cheap.
3. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Similar to Wisniewski, Pirri was not on our original list because he was property of the Anaheim Ducks. However, the Ducks chose not to offer Pirri a qualifying offer, despite him being an offensively talented winger; the budget Ducks likely wanted to avoid heading to arbitration. Pirri is an interesting player, and two years removed from a Cy Young caliber season with 22 goals and 2 assists. He could be an option for teams like the Oilers to upgrade on Nail Yakupov. Look for him to get a one or two year deal in the $1-2MM range, depending on the situation.
4 . Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is coming off a terrible season with just 27 points in 63 games. However, like Hudler, he’s two years removed from a tremendous season, putting up 31 goals and 63 points. Some talk was made around the trade deadline about the Canucks not getting a single concrete trade offer for Vrbata. We originally predicted a one-year, $3.7MM contract with the Avalanche. At this point, if Vrbata is going to get any offers, look for similar terms as Wisniewski: PTO or cheap one-year contract in the Sam Gagner range.
5. Alex Tanguay (33) – We predicted Tanguay signing a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Arizona, where he finished last season. Tanguay is getting up there in age (he’ll turn 37 in November), but has shown the ability to perform in a scoring role. He’s not particularly skilled on the defensive or physical sides of the game, but Tanguay would be a decent fit for a team looking for either a short-term upgrade or a bridge player until a prospect is ready. At this point, expect him to attend a training camp on a PTO.
Restricted Free Agent Contract Projections: Kucherov, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Trouba
Late in restricted free agency, there are still a number of highly skilled players who remain unsigned. These players generally lack leverage, because other teams behave cautiously given the compensation rules. Then consider that this late in the summer, most teams have their budgets set. If a restricted free agent is paid, it’s often to buy years of unrestricted free agency.
Even into August, there are still candidates to have those years controlled. Here’s a look at what kind of deals four of them may be pursuing.
- Nikita Kucherov – Having just turned 23, Kucherov is coming off a 30 goal, 36 assist season, leading the Lightning with 66 points. In 2015, his season was nearly identical, with one fewer goal, and the same number of assists. Filip Forsberg is a year younger, but put up very similar offensive numbers for Nashville this year. Forsberg just signed a six year contract worth $6MM per year. Look for Kucherov to get a similar deal. Projection: 6 years, $36MM
- Johnny Gaudreau – Just shy of 23, Gaudreau has 55 goals, 143 points, in 160 NHL games. This year, Gaudreau hit career highs of 30 goals and 48 points in 79 games. There has been talk of the Flames and Gaudreau pushing for a deal since February, with nothing to show for it. As Eric Francis notes in that link, the closest comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who is signed to an eight-year, $60MM contract. Still, there’s a case Gaudreau has actually shown more in the NHL than Tarasenko had before signing. The Flames are also more dependent on him, at least until someone like Sam Bennett breaks out. Projection: 8 years, $64MM
- Hampus Lindholm – At 22, Lindholm led defensemen in Corsi Relative. That is, he increased his team’s share of the game’s shot attempts more than any defenseman to play 750 minutes. Lindholm’s problem is that NHL teams are often skeptical of these numbers. This leaves defensemen of similar ages and with similar scoring numbers as the most likely comparisons. Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton got $5.75MM per season last year, but he also plays the much scarcer right side, and Calgary traded assets for him. It would have been fairly embarrassing had he not been signed quickly. The Ducks will play hardball, but if they get Lindholm at under that price, it’ll be well worth it. Projection: 5 years, $25MM
- Jacob Trouba – Trouba is 22 and well regarded around the league, but the reported debate over role will hurt him. As mentioned before, restricted free agents are paid usually when teams want to buy years of unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t believe that Trouba is ready for an increased role, it’s unlikely they’re in a rush to pay him for it. This has the looks of something bitter developing, but it’s most likely he’ll get some sort of bridge deal. Projection: 2 years, $8MM
Revisiting The Shattenkirk, Nash Trade Rumor
It seems the Rick Nash for Kevin Shattenkirk trade rumors have been around since the New York Rangers were eliminated by Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs in April. Whether the rumor ever had any basis in fact or was completely conjured up by beat writers and bloggers is up for debate. Regardless, this is one rumor that has had quite the shelf life and is one that refuses to go away. They say, “where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” and there has been a lot of smoke on this one.
Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently answered questions as part of a live chat and naturally one reader asked about this. Rutherford did say, “it still seems quiet right now,” when discussing what his sources had told him about any Shattenkirk rumors. But later he also said he “wouldn’t dismiss the possibility,” of a trade involving the two players.
It makes sense for both clubs to varying degrees to make a move of this nature. The Rangers had issues much of last season involving their defense and have since lost regular defensemen Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle to trade and retirement respectively. Shattenkirk grew up a Rangers fan and idolized former Blueshirt blue liner Brian Leetch. His offensive prowess and puck moving ability would certainly go a long way toward replacing what the team lost when they dealt Yandle’s negotiating rights to Florida. And despite Shattenkirk entering the final year of his deal, his fondness for the Rangers would make him a likely candidate to sign a somewhat team-friendly extension.
On the St. Louis side, adding Nash would help offset the void of veteran leadership and skill created when David Backes and Troy Brouwer left the team in free agency. Nash’s previous experience with head coach Ken Hitchcock in Columbus also lends credibility to the belief the Blues would have interest in the veteran winger.
Not all signs point to the likelihood of heavy interest in Nash, however. St. Louis has made it known that they are focused on getting younger. They are expected to bring back Vladimir Sobotka from overseas to fill one vacancy up front. Plus they have some young prospects they might like to give a shot too before adding an expensive veteran like Nash.
Nash also makes a fair amount more money than Shattenkirk – $7.8MM cap hit but actual salaries of $8MM and 8.2MM over the next two years – but since the Rangers have plenty of cap space they would be able to retain salary to facilitate a move if they chose to do so.
I believe this trade would have already gone down if the Rangers and Blues wanted it to. It’s true the Rangers didn’t execute the deal to acquire Mika Zibanejad in exchange for Derick Brassard until well into the summer but that was due to Ottawa wishing to avoid paying out a bonus owed to Brassard on July 15th. The best guess is that the two clubs will go into the season more or less as they are today. But that doesn’t mean they can’t revisit this concept in-season if both teams are in need of a jolt ahead of the trade deadline.
Snapshots: Oilers, World Cup, Hudler
Mark Spector of Sportsnet wrote today about the Oilers’ player evaluation failures, identifying it as the main cause of their ten-year playoff drought. Spector notes the decisions to let go of former Vice President of player personnel Scott Howson and analytics guru Tyler Dellow, and naming Keith Gretzky assistant general manager. Spector argues that Keith Gretzky has had a successful run as part of the amateur scouting staff for the Phoenix Coyotes and Boston Bruins. Bruins’ beat writer Joe Haggerty tweeted today pointing out that while his tenure with the Bruins was relatively short, Gretzky’s first pick was scoring forward David Pastrnak.
The article also defends General Manager Peter Chiarelli from the suggestion that Dellow’s release is a rejection of analytics. Saying that it was a “deliveryman issue,” Spector says that there will still be Oilers’ staff working in analytics. Those who remember Dellow’s writing before joining the Oilers will likely remember the trades of Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, and Taylor Hall, and wonder how much input he’s had.
Here are more links from around hockey:
- Insuring players for international tournaments is a critical issue for league participation. Gary Lawless tweets today that should unsigned players like Johnny Gaudreau, Jacob Trouba, or Sean Monahan still be without a contract, they will be insured at the league and players association’s expense. Several players sat out the 2004 World Cup because the coming lockout delayed contracts, and complicated the insurance issue.
- TSN analytics writer Travis Yost makes the case today for a team to sign free agent forward Jiri Hudler. Hudler, 32, had 16 goals, and 46 points in 72 games with the Flames and Panthers last season, but had just one assist in six playoff games for the Panthers. Yost’s case, somewhat unconventional for an analytics writer, is based heavily on Hudler’s ability to improve his team’s shooting percentage.
Metro Notes: Rangers, Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Gagner, Cizikas
Today is New York Rangers Day on the Pro Hockey Talk section of NBC Sports and they’ve got several posts up focusing on the Blueshirts. Included among them, Jason Brough lists the newly acquired Mika Zibanejad as the New York Ranger “under pressure” for the 2016-17 season.
Zibanejad was acquired from Ottawa in exchange for Derick Brassard, the Rangers leading goal scorer and second leading point producer. The expectation is Zibanejad, while perhaps not completely replacing Brassard’s offensive production, will be a more well-rounded player. Zibanejad played in all situations for the Senators, averaging 1:25 per game killing penalties and another 2:30 on the power play this past season. The Blueshirts struggled on the penalty-kill and it’s hoped Zibanejad will give the team another quality forward option when down a man.
Zibanejad was certainly the biggest name the Rangers have imported this summer after the disappointing end to their season. With hopes of returning to Stanley Cup contender status, the club will need Zibanejad to produce and play well in his first year on Manhattan.
More on the Rangers and other clubs in the NHL’s Metro Division….
- In the same piece, Brough discusses Rangers top prospect Pavel Buchnevich and where he might fit into the lineup, assuming of course he makes the team out of camp. Despite being listed as a LW on the team’s official roster, Brough suggests the Rangers could line up the left-handed shooting Buchnevich on the RW, opposite Chris Kreider and next to Derek Stepan. Head coach Alain Vigneault is not afraid to mix and match his lines or to give the line(s) playing well more ice time. Even if on paper Buchnevich is on the 3rd line, it’s still quite possible he’ll see plenty of ice time. As long as he’s getting top-9 minutes he should be fine. What’s more important is developing chemistry with at least one other forward (Vigneault sticks to pairs when assembling his forward units) and that his minutes are sheltered to keep him away from the opponent’s best players as often as possible.
- Staying in New York, Casey Cizikas spoke with the Islanders team website and answered questions regarding his new five-year extension, among other topics. The Islanders took a fair amount of criticism for doling out $3.35MM annually to a player who is considered primarily a 4th liner and penalty-killer. But that’s perhaps understating his actual value to the club. One, he averaged 12:41 of ice time this past season, whereas most 4th line players see about 8 – 10 minutes per game. Second, head coach Jack Capuano trusts Cizikas on the ice late in games when the outcome is undecided. Maybe we look back in a few years and see this contract as an overpay, but today, for what he brings to the club, the signing is at least defensible.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets recently inked veteran pivot Sam Gagner to a one-year deal worth $650K. In this post by Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch, Gagner says the reason he signed with the Blue Jackets is that they offered him the opportunity to “re-establish” himself as a quality NHL player. In fact, he passed on offers from at least four other clubs to take the deal with the Jackets. Gagner, who had netted at least 40 points six different times and never previously finished with fewer than 37 points in any season, slumped to a career-worst 16 points last year, skating primarily on the 4th line for the Flyers. With head coach John Tortorella seemingly preferring to use Boone Jenner on the wing and with only the oft-injured Brandon Dubinsky a sure bet to see top-six center minutes – assuming he stays relatively healthy of course – this does present Gagner an excellent chance to rebuild his value. The Jackets boast some quality talent up front – Brandon Saad, Jenner, Scott Hartnell and Cam Atkinson come to mind immediately – so Gagner will get to play with some skilled players. By the end of the 2016-17 campaign, Gagner might prove to be the biggest bargain of free agency.
Coyotes, Tobias Rieder Still At Impasse On New Deal
Arizona GM John Chayka has already accomplished much this offseason but a GM’s work is never done. The Coyotes still have RFA Tobias Rieder to re-sign and it appears a deal is not close to being completed.
According to Rieder’s representation, agent Darren Ferris, “There’s been no discussions at this point that have made any meaningful change in anyone’s position.”
Rieder is coming off a 14-goal, 37-point performance this past season and is looking to cash in. Last month, Ferris appeared to have established their expectations for a new contract by naming Nazem Kadri as a reasonable comparable. Kadri netted a six-year deal with Toronto with an AAV of $4.5MM a year ago on the heels of an 18-goal, 39-point campaign. Rieder, 23, tallied 37 points a year ago and on the surface that performance would appear to represent a fair talking point on a new contract. However, Kadri had a much longer and more distinguished track record than the two-year veteran Coyotes forward.
First, Kadri was a high first round draft choice, going 7th overall in 2009. Rieder was a 4th round selection two years later. Teams are willing to bet on upside in contract negotiations and 1st round picks generally come with more untapped potential than 4th rounders.
Second, when Kadri agreed to his extension, he already had posted at least 40 points in four separate NHL campaigns, with a career best 50 coming in 2013-14. He also had six years of NHL experience, putting him just two years away from unrestricted free agency per the terms of the current CBA. Rieder, on the other hand, just completed his second NHL campaign, leaving him well away from unrestricted free agency. Kadri had accomplished far more at the NHL level over a far longer period of time than has Rieder to this point and was closer to reaching free agency.
Ferris also pointed out Jamie McGinn‘s recent three-year contract with Arizona as a base line for negotiations. McGinn carries an AAV of $3.33MM.
Again, McGinn has been in the league a lot longer than Rieder (veteran of 450 NHL games) and has two, 20-goal campaigns on his resume. He also signed his deal as an UFA with far more leverage thanks to a broad market than Rieder has as an RFA.
As Morgan wrote, perhaps the most logical comparable given Rieder’s age, experience and production level is Vladislav Namestnikov of Tampa Bay. Through 127 career NHL games, Namestnikov has tallied 23 goals and 51 points, numbers reasonably close to Rieder’s. Namestnikov was selected with the 27th selection in the 1st round of the 2011 entry draft and is the same age as Rieder. Tampa secured Namestnikov’s services on a two-year deal worth slightly less than $2MM annually.
Rieder’s camp is marketing the winger using advanced stats and as we know, Chayka is well-versed in analytics. Evidently, Ferris has yet to make a compelling enough case to sway the Arizona GM to their way of thinking on Rieder’s value. Chayka is obviously sticking to his guns as whatever deal he and Rieder agree on sets a standard for future negotiations. Every new contract adds to the pool of possible comparable deals other agents will point to when advocating for their clients and it’s the job of club management to try to keep those salaries as low as possible.
Ferris has suggested the German-born Rieder would entertain offers to play overseas and while that possibility can’t be discounted, particularly if his European contract contained an out-clause, the NHL is the premier league in the world and most players want to play there. It might go down to the wire but I fully expect the Coyotes and Rieder to get a deal done, likely very similar to Namestnikov’s, but perhaps eclipsing $2MM in AAV.