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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

February 21, 2021 at 12:02 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)           
                              Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
New York Islanders 23.09% (263 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks 18.88% (215 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 9.66% (110 votes)
None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16 8.96% (102 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 7.73% (88 votes)
Calgary Flames 6.41% (73 votes)
New Jersey Devils 5.62% (64 votes)
New York Rangers 4.39% (50 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 3.69% (42 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 3.69% (42 votes)
Buffalo Sabres 2.19% (25 votes)
San Jose Sharks 1.58% (18 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 1.49% (17 votes)
Nashville Predators 1.23% (14 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 0.79% (9 votes)
Ottawa Senators 0.61% (7 votes)
Total Votes: 1,139

[mobile users click here to vote]

Anaheim Ducks| Boston Bruins| Buffalo Sabres| Calgary Flames| Carolina Hurricanes| Chicago Blackhawks| Colorado Avalanche| Columbus Blue Jackets| Dallas Stars| Detroit Red Wings| Edmonton Oilers| Florida Panthers| Los Angeles Kings| Minnesota Wild| Montreal Canadiens| Nashville Predators| New Jersey Devils| New York Islanders| New York Rangers| Ottawa Senators| Philadelphia Flyers| Pittsburgh Penguins| Polls| San Jose Sharks| St. Louis Blues| Tampa Bay Lightning| Toronto Maple Leafs| Utah Mammoth| Vancouver Canucks| Vegas Golden Knights| Washington Capitals| Winnipeg Jets

4 comments

International Notes: 2022 Olympics, Team USA, Mexico City

February 19, 2021 at 6:23 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

The NHL may have made a commitment to return to the Winter Olympics in 2022, but that doesn’t mean that participation is automatically guaranteed. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that concerns obviously still exist about the viability of a mid-season international tournament set to begin in less than 12 months given that the battle against the Coronavirus is still being waged across the globe. Although COVID-19 vaccines are now being distributed world-wide and the hope is that the virus will be contained within the next year if not sooner, a major international event with athletes from all over the world poses a great threat of infection, especially given the fact that many countries will not be vaccinated at the same rate as major world powers like the United States and Canada, among others. As Dreger notes, the first test before the Beijing Games in 2022 will be this summer, as the postponed Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics are still scheduled to take place. However, there is considerable concern and doubt about the Tokyo Games occurring. The stakeholders in the next Winter Olympics will learn a lot from how these Summer Games are operated, if at all, from a health and safety perspective. As Dreger notes, the testing protocols in Beijing will have to be extensive for NHL players to attend, especially considering that the virus originated in China. He believes that if the Summer Olympic results or the plans for the Winter Olympics do not inspire hope, there is a possibility that the men’s hockey tournament could be held remotely at a different venue, still part of the Beijing games but from a more secure location, likely in North America. Dreger adds that the IIHF is set to meet soon to discuss the many issues and possibilities surrounding the 2022 Games. Since the commitment to Olympic participation was collectively bargained in the latest CBA, both the NHL and NHLPA would need to agree if players were not to attend next year. However, both sides only have player safety in mind at this time and should be on the same page with making a determination at some point in the near future.

  • Assuming the NHL does return to the Olympics in 2022, it will the first opportunity to play at the top international level for many of the game’s biggest names. After skipping the last Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang in 2018, the NHL has not sent representative to the Games since 2014 – a long span of time in an NHL career. Many established stars had not even been drafted when the league was last involved. Expectations are especially high for Team USA, as the Americans may be looking at their most talented Olympic roster ever in 2022. Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, Seth Jones, Connor Hellebuyck, and countless other will all be making their Olympic debuts. However, USA Hockey has yet to choose the man that will be in charge of forming this team and does not plan to do so until participation in the games is confirmed. However, TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman is considered the likely selection at this point. Bowman, who won Stanley Cups in the years sandwiching the NHL’s last Olympic Games, was nevertheless not part of Team USA the last time around. This time, he is expected to be the GM and the one to lead a hopeful squad. Seravalli notes that past members of Team USA’s operations such as David Poile and Don Waddell are surely being considered as well, but appear more likely to be assistants to Bowman. With Hockey Canada already announcing a deep and talented brain trust for the 2022 Games to go with an always-talented roster, Team USA may not want to wait much longer to formally begin preparations.
  • As for other possible upcoming international ventures, Arizona Coyotes President and CEO Xavier Gutierrez has some thoughts. Speaking with AZ Central’s Jose Romero about the NHL’s upcoming outdoor games – and how the ’Yotes have never been invited to play in one – Gutierrez shared his hopes for Arizona to take part in a different historic game. He believes that the next step for the NHL in their global initiatives is to hold a game in Mexico City. Although Mexico is not a traditional hockey country, Gutierrez sees “incredible opportunity” for growth in Latin America. The NHL has played games in Asia before with this same idea of spreading the game in mind and Gutierrez feels that Mexico should be next up. He notes that the NFL, MLB, and NBA have all ventured into Mexico before, leaving the NHL as the only major North American league yet to do so. The league has not hesitated to hold both preseason and regular season games abroad in recent years and games in Mexico City, given a proper venue is available, may not be as costly or logistically challenging as games in Eastern Europe and Asia have been. Should the league consider Gutierrez’ idea, the Mexico native’s club does seem like the ideal fit. Coyotes owner Alex Meruelo is the NHL’s first Latino majority owner and Gutierrez it’s first Latino president. The ’Yotes, as well as the Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, or Dallas Stars, all play in areas with significant Latin populations and there are surely fans of some of these team in Mexico as well. A match-up between Arizona and any of those teams would be a great introduction for the NHL south of the border.

CBA| Chicago Blackhawks| Coronavirus| David Poile| IIHF| NHL| NHLPA| Olympics| Players| Stan Bowman| Team USA| Utah Mammoth

3 comments

Snapshots: Rescheduling, Avalanche, Wild, Thompson

February 19, 2021 at 3:51 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

In a season that has been disrupted by several COVID-19 outbreaks and historically-bad weather in Texas, the NHL schedule maker has been forced to constantly snip and edit things to fit in all 56 games. Today, the league announced that tomorrow’s game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes will be postponed to another date, with the Hurricanes taking on Tampa Bay Saturday night instead. The Lightning and Hurricanes were already set to start a three-game series on Monday, meaning they’ll now face each other in four consecutive games. The Blackhawks-Hurricanes game? It doesn’t have a date yet.

Some more updates from around the league:

  • The Colorado Avalanche have almost everyone available for tomorrow’s outdoor game at Lake Tahoe, including captain Gabriel Landeskog and defenseman Samuel Girard, who were recently on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list. That doesn’t necessarily mean Girard, who was still on the list as of yesterday, will play but he is eligible to. According to Dan Rosen of NHL.com, Cale Makar is still a game-time decision as he continues to deal with an upper-body injury.
  • The Minnesota Wild also welcomed back several familiar faces to practice today, now that the team is down to just Andrew Hammond on the COVID Protocol list. Michael Russo of The Athletic reports that Dakota Mermis, Luke Johnson and Kyle Rau have all been sent to the taxi squad to make room for the returning players, though Calen Addison will currently stay on the active roster.
  • Nate Thompson has been activated from injured reserve by the Winnipeg Jets and he is expected to be in the lineup tonight when the team faces off against the Vancouver Canucks. Thompson has played just four games for the Jets this season after signing a one-year, $750K deal in October. The veteran forward is expected to take the spot of Kristian Vesalainen, who is still looking for his first NHL goal.

Carolina Hurricanes| Chicago Blackhawks| Colorado Avalanche| Injury| Minnesota Wild| Schedule| Snapshots| Tampa Bay Lightning| Winnipeg Jets Nate Thompson| Taxi Squad

0 comments

Injury Notes: Dubois, Lindholm, Sandin

February 17, 2021 at 2:55 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

The Winnipeg Jets have officially moved Pierre-Luc Dubois to injured reserve, a disappointing outcome for a player that is having a season full of them. The young forward has played just two games since his trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets and just seven on the season thanks to a long quarantine. He was injured last week, though it’s still not exactly clear what happened or how long he’ll be out.

Dubois failed to record a shot in either of his games with the Jets and now has just one point on the season. When he does get back on the active roster, he’ll have to really push to get back to the top-line center he appeared to be in recent years.

  • Chicago Blackhawks prospect Anton Lindholm will be out for four to six weeks with a broken thumb, his AHL team announced today. Lindholm sustained the injury last Friday, meaning his season will be truncated by at least a month. The 26-year-old defenseman was part of the trade that saw Brandon Saad go to the Colorado Avalanche in the offseason but had yet to get into the NHL lineup with the Blackhawks. In 66 career games, he has five points.
  • Another minor-league defenseman, this time Rasmus Sandin, will also be out a while. The young defenseman suffered a foot injury and will be out for several weeks, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. Sandin, one of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ top prospects, played in one NHL game earlier this season and recorded a point. The 20-year-old is still waiting for his chance to crack the roster full-time and was supposed to get his game back up to speed in the minor leagues. Now, unfortunately, he’ll be sidelined instead.

AHL| Chicago Blackhawks| Injury| Toronto Maple Leafs| Winnipeg Jets Anton Lindholm| Pierre-Luc Dubois| Rasmus Sandin

2 comments

Snapshots: Tatar, Dumba, Devils, Murphy, Hamonic

February 13, 2021 at 8:52 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

The Montreal Canadiens will be without Tomas Tatar Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs, who is a healthy scratch, according to Sportsnet’s Eric Engels. The move made by head coach Claude Julien is believed to be a message sent to both Tatar and the team after Montreal has lost three of their last four games.

Tatar, despite having four goals and eight points in 14 games, has been adequate on the ice, but not as good as last season when he posted 22 goals and 61 points in 68 games. Engels believes that the message is meant just as much to the team as Tatar is one of the most popular players in the locker room.

The Philadelphia Flyers attempted a similar benching of leading scorer Travis Konecny on Jan. 30. Unfortunately, he has not scored a point since then.

  • Corey Masisak of The Athletic reports that a New Jersey Devils team spokesman said the team will be allowed to return to practice on Monday. That will be the first time the team has been allowed on the ice since the game at Buffalo on Jan. 31. The team is currently scheduled to play on Tuesday at the New York Rangers.
  • The Minnesota Wild got even more good news when they learned that defenseman Matt Dumba should be in the lineup on Tuesday when they begin playing once again after suffering what looked to be a severe ankle injury, according to Star Tribune’s Sarah McLellan. Dumba got tangled up with teammate Jordan Greenway and suffered an awkward fall on Jan. 30, but the blueliner said that he’s feeling good and has no issues regarding the injury. The 26-year-old Dumba is looking solid this season, already with three goals in just nine games this season. Teammate Mats Zuccarello is also getting closer to a return. The veteran forward practiced Friday in a non-contact jersey.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks have placed defenseman Connor Murphy on injured reserve, retroactive to Feb. 9, according to NHL.com’s Brandon Cain. The blueliner was suffered a right hip injury in that game and is expected to miss up to two weeks. Murphy has been playing well for Chicago with two goals and five points in 13 games, while averaging 22:45 of ATOI.
  • The Vancouver Canucks could be getting a boost back to their defense as head coach Travis Green reported that defenseman Travis Hamonic is close to returning to the team. The 30-year-old blueliner remains on long-term injured reserve with an upper-body injury. He has only appeared in five games with the Canucks this year with two assists, but could be a big addition if he returns soon.

Chicago Blackhawks| Injury| Minnesota Wild| Montreal Canadiens| New Jersey Devils| Snapshots| Toronto Maple Leafs| Vancouver Canucks Connor Murphy| Mats Zuccarello| Matt Dumba| Tomas Tatar

0 comments

Andrew Shaw In Concussion Protocol

February 11, 2021 at 11:55 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 9 Comments

The Chicago Blackhawks announced some unfortunate injury news today, noting that Connor Murphy will be out for 10-14 days with a right hip issue and Andrew Shaw is in the concussion protocol. Murphy didn’t play in the team’s last game, but Shaw did, hitting the ice for nearly 15 minutes in their overtime win against the Dallas Stars.

The important thing here is Shaw’s health, given his history of concussions. The bang-and-crash forward has been sidelined by head injuries many times in the past, and head coach Jeremy Colliton (whose playing career was also ended due to concussions) was “visibly distraught” when he updated reporters including Charlie Roumeliotis of NBCS Chicago on Shaw’s status today.

It’s not clear at all what this mean’s for Shaw’s future, but for now, he won’t be in the lineup when the Blackhawks host the Columbus Blue Jackets this evening.

The team announced two other transactions: Wyatt Kalynuk has been recalled to the taxi squad from the AHL, while Anton Lindholm has gone the other way, assigned to the Rockford IceHogs.

Chicago Blackhawks| Injury Andrew Shaw| Anton Lindholm| Connor Murphy| Wyatt Kalynuk

9 comments

Brent Seabrook Unlikely To Return Soon

February 9, 2021 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Blackhawks defenseman Brent Seabrook was hoping that after undergoing three surgeries last season that ended his 2019-20 campaign early, he would be ready to go in training camp.  That didn’t happen and the veteran has yet to play this season with very little information coming out about how long he’ll miss.  Speaking with Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times, GM Stan Bowman indicated that Seabrook won’t be coming back anytime soon and that there is some concern about his future:

He’s been a warrior for us. Think of his time in Chicago — he never really missed any games. But now we’re realizing he was playing through a lot of pain those years, and it’s caught up to him.

He was dealing with his shoulders and his hips to the point where he probably should have had [the surgeries] done years ago, but that’s how he’s always been driven — to keep moving forward, don’t worry about injuries, play through it. So, yeah, we are concerned for him. We certainly hope he can get past it.

Seabrook had planned to be in Chicago’s training camp before tweaking his back which has kept him out since then.  He has managed to skate lightly on his own in recent weeks but nowhere near a level where he’d be considered close to returning.  Pope likens Seabrook’s situation to that of teammate Zack Smith who also had a back injury, had planned to be ready for training camp, then wound up on the injured list and has yet to play this season.

The Blackhawks have used four blueliners on entry-level contracts so far this season and with it appearing that Seabrook won’t be back anytime soon (if at all this year), they will be able to get a longer look at some of those younger prospects.  In the meantime, Seabrook and his $6.875MM AAV can be placed on LTIR if Chicago needs the cap room although they’re safely in cap compliance for the time being with Jonathan Toews on there and no word on how much longer he’ll be out.

Chicago Blackhawks| Injury Brent Seabrook

7 comments

Blackhawks Cancel Practice Due To Potential COVID-19 Exposure

January 31, 2021 at 10:33 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Jan. 31: The Blackhawks’ game against the Blue Jackets, the second game of a two-game set will continue as planned despite the cancellation of practice Saturday.

“I talked to team yesterday, we had a Zoom meeting, and the main messages was: ’We know we’re facing adversity… The circumstances, it really doesn’t matter,” said head coach Jeremy Colliton (via Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times). “The most important thing is we find a way to push through, and that can make our team stronger.'”

Jan. 30: Several teams have had to cancel practice already this season due to potential exposure to COVID-19 and the Blackhawks are the latest to join the list as they announced that they have scrapped today’s practice “out of an abundance of caution due to potential exposure of COVID-19”.

Chicago has had multiple players placed on the COVID Protocol Related Absences (CPRA) list in recent days with defenseman Adam Boqvist, winger Alex DeBrincat, and center Lucas Wallmark among the 22 players on yesterday’s updated list.  Of course, it’s worth noting that someone being placed on there does not automatically mean that the player has tested positive.

Chicago was involved in the lone game on last night’s schedule, a 2-1 loss to Columbus.  The two teams are set for a rematch on Sunday.  As things stand, that game remains on the schedule though that is subject to change depending on today’s test results.

Chicago Blackhawks| Coronavirus

1 comment

Madison Bowey Signs With Chicago Blackhawks

January 29, 2021 at 11:05 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

Jan 29: Bowey has cleared waivers and was quickly assigned to the minor leagues.

Jan 28: The Chicago Blackhawks have signed free agent Madison Bowey to a two-year contract that will run through the 2021-22 season. This season will be a two-way deal with an NHL salary of $700K, while next is a one-way contract worth $750K. That means he’ll carry a cap hit of $725K for the Blackhawks, who immediately placed him on waivers. Should Bowey clear, he can report directly to the AHL or taxi squad (pending COVID protocol).

Bowey, 25, was not issued a qualifying offer from the Detroit Red Wings in the offseason, making him an unrestricted free agent. He had recently signed a minor league PTO with the San Diego Gulls, but will now have a full NHL contract for this season and next. At the expiry of this deal, Bowey will be a UFA once again.

If you’re wondering why the team signed Bowey for two years, CapFriendly offers up a potential explanation. By playing in one more NHL game, Bowey will meet the minimum exposure requirements for the upcoming expansion draft, something that previously only Connor Murphy did for Chicago. Every team must leave at least one defenseman unprotected who has played a certain number of games over the past two seasons and is under contract for 2021-22. Once he gets into the lineup, Bowey will now fill that requirement, even though it seems very unlikely that Seattle would actually pick him.

In the meantime, the 6’2″ defenseman also gives Chicago some added depth at the position and means that some of their younger options could get playing time in the minor leagues. The team is currently carrying only four players on their taxi squad and could use Bowey in that role all season, moving in and out whenever injuries occur.

AHL| Chicago Blackhawks| Waivers Madison Bowey

4 comments

Brandon Pirri Clears Waivers

January 22, 2021 at 11:05 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

Jan 22: Pirri has cleared waivers and can now report to the taxi squad or minor leagues.

Jan 21: The Chicago Blackhawks have placed Brandon Pirri on waivers, according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic. The veteran forward had played in just one of the team’s games so far and did not record a point.

Pirri, 29, has traveled all over the NHL through his playing career, starting in Chicago during the 2010-11 season and visiting Florida, Anaheim, New York and Vegas before returning to the Blackhawks this offseason. Always known for his goal-scoring ability, he failed to record a single tally in 16 games with the Golden Knights last season.

Now, with the Blackhawks navigating a tricky salary cap situation he finds himself at risk of selection by the rest of the league. Chicago is currently using three goaltenders on the active roster, but both Collin Delia and Malcolm Subban would need to clear waivers in order to be assigned to the taxi squad. Given how many netminders have been claimed in recent days, it seems prudent to avoid placing either of them there for the time being. Should Pirri clear, he could be moved to the taxi squad instead, clearing a roster spot.

There is a chance of a claim, but it does seem unlikely even though Pirri is only owed $775K this season.

Chicago Blackhawks| Waivers Brandon Pirri

4 comments
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