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David Krejčí To Announce Retirement Soon

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According to Jimmy Murphy of Boston Hockey Now, David Krejčí will announce his retirement from the NHL and hockey in the very near future. Krejčí returned to the Boston Bruins this past season after taking a one-year hiatus to play overseas with Olomouc HC in the Czech League during the 2021-22 season. He had a good year for Boston but did wear down a bit towards the end of the year. In his return, Krejčí had 16 goals and 40 assists in 70 games while centering Boston’s second line.

Murphy mentions in his piece that rumors have been swirling that Krejčí may return to Czechia to play for Olomouc once again, but an NHL source of his has told him that won’t happen. There is, however, an outside chance he could play for the national team, which would leave the door open for Krejčí to dress for Czechia in the 2024 World Championships.

It has been quite a run for the former 2004 second-round pick. Through his NHL career Krejčí has posted 231 goals and 555 assists in 1032 regular season games to go along with a +166 plus-minus rating. He was also a clutch playoff performer with Boston, helping to lead the team to three Stanley Cup finals and one Stanley Cup title in 2011 in which he led the Bruins in scoring with 12 goals and 11 assists in 25 games.

Krejčí’s retirement will bring the Bruins closer to the end of an era as only Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic remain from the squad that won the Stanley Cup 2011. It will also close out the run of one of the best 1-2 center combinations we’ve seen in recent memory. Krejčí and Patrice Bergeron brought something unique to the center position that few other teams had, both men could create offense and play a solid two-way game. Bergeron was one of the best at it, but it always felt like Krejčí’s ability to play on both sides of the puck was overlooked because of who he played behind. Krejčí was a unique talent and will certainly be missed by the Bruins and their fans.

Toronto Maple Leafs Had Interest In Milan Lucic, Radko Gudas

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The Toronto Maple Leafs were active this summer in trying to add some toughness to their roster in the form of enforcers and multi-dimensional players, eventually settling on Max Domi, Ryan Reaves and Tyler Bertuzzi. Those weren’t the only players they contacted of that ilk, however. Both forward Milan Lucic (YouTube link) and defenseman Radko Gudas (link to iSport.cz) revealed in separate interviews that Toronto general manager Brad Treliving had pursued them in unrestricted free agency.

Lucic hadn’t been previously connected to the Leafs throughout this summer’s rumor cycle, but it makes sense they’d have interest given their pursuit and acquisition of Reaves to play a similar role. He told Paul Bissonnette and Ryan Whitney of the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast yesterday, though, that he’d turned down interest from Treliving because of his previous stint with the rival Boston Bruins. The 35-year-old would end up returning to Boston after an eight-year absence, inking a one-year, $1MM contract with the Bruins on July 1.

In terms of offense, Lucic would’ve been a higher-upside (and potentially cheaper) addition to the Leafs’ roster than Reaves. In fact, the only advantage Reaves arguably has between the two players is fighting skill – something the Leafs would end up paying a premium for with a three-year, $4.05MM commitment. Of course, Toronto would end up getting some higher-octane offensive players with the gritty element they were looking for in Bertuzzi and Domi.

Gudas, on the other hand, is pretty much the antithesis of the right-shot defender Toronto did end up signing, John Klingberg. A hulking, physical defensive specialist, Gudas told an outlet in his home country that he’d turned down offers from three teams (Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton) to avoid playing in front of a Canadian media market. While he did sacrifice playing on a competitive team in his twilight years, Gudas did get compensated nicely by the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks with a three-year, $12MM deal carrying trade protection.

The 33-year-old Czech was a large reason why his former team, the Florida Panthers, advanced all the way to the Stanley Cup Final for just the second time in franchise history. He quickly immortalized himself in Leafs lore in the process, going semi-viral for an image that showed him screaming at Toronto goalie Joseph Woll after the Panthers knocked the Leafs out of the playoffs in the Second Round thanks to a Game 5 overtime win.

While Toronto ended up paying slightly more in terms of cap hit for Klingberg ($4.15MM compared to Gudas’ $4MM in Anaheim), they were able to get him at just a one-year commitment, absolving themselves of any long-term consequences should the signing not pan out.

Gudas has topped 100 penalty minutes three times throughout his career and has consistently posted standout advanced defensive metrics over the past number of seasons. He recorded 17 points in 72 games for the Panthers last season while averaging 17:22 of ice time per game.

Examining The Boston Bruins Salary Cap Situation

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Earlier today, an independent arbitrator settled the contract for goaltender Jeremy Swayman and the Boston Bruins, awarding the young goaltender a one-year, $3.475MM contract for the 2023-24 NHL season. Now that Swayman has a contract for next year and much of the heavy lifting of the offseason is already concluded, the Bruins currently find themselves with roughly $429k in cap space to start the season.

Boston has already used one buyout this offseason, buying out the final one-year, $3MM left on the contract of defenseman Mike Reilly’s contract. The team will now have a second buyout window opening in three days, which the team may utilize, but is incredibly unlikely due to the eligible player requirements. The player must have been on the team’s reserve list at last year’s trade deadline, and must also have a cap hit of $4MM or more on their current contract. Of the current roster on the Bruins currently carrying a cap hit of $4MM or more, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle, Pavel Zacha, Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, and Linus Ullmark are the only ones that make the cut.

Given that Boston is unlikely to cut ties with one of the players listed above for absolutely nothing in return, the team might have to look to the trade market to free up more salary. This notion has already been backed up by recent reporting, given that General Manager Cam Neely has already mentioned the team would be looking to bolster their center depth after legendary center Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement and a similar outcome is expected for center David Krejci.

In a creative solution, the Bruins’ best trade partner may be the Calgary Flames, with both Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund available for the right price. After already moving forward Tyler Toffoli this summer, and Lindholm and Backlund unsure about their future in Alberta, the Flames may take a similar approach with those two players as well.

If the Bruins do land an impact center such as Lindholm, they may have to become more amicable about moving out the contract of Coyle or Carlo. It will be difficult, given Coyle’s leadership in the postseason as well as Carlo’s incredible defensive play over the last several years, but it may be the prudent move going forward for this organization.

Similar to last year’s true ’hockey’ trade involving Matthew Tkachuk, a swap of Coyle and Carlo to the Flames for Lindholm and possibly Nikita Zadorov may be the wise decision for both teams. Coyle and Carlo would fill in roster spots for Calgary without totally eliminating their winning potential for next season, as well as give them some contract term to hang on to. For the Bruins, it would likely be a wash, as Lindholm fills a top-six role much better than Coyle, but Zadorov would be a downgrade from the play of Carlo. Given that both Lindholm and Zadorov will be UFA’s at season’s end, and with the expected salary cap increase at the same time, the Bruins will have more financial flexibility to sign these players to extensions as well.

If anything, given the Bruins’ free agent signings this offseason, they should have the defensive depth to absorb the loss of Carlo with both Kevin Shattenkirk and Ian Mitchell joining the roster as well. However, they will need to make an upgrade at the center position before next season starts if they have any hope of competing in the Atlantic Division. The division already holds the defending Eastern Conference Champion Florida Panthers, as well as the extremely talented Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs. A team led by Pastrnak, Marchand, and McAvoy should never be counted out of contention, but the growing sense is that Boston will need to make a move to cut salary, as well as find a center in hopes of replacing the production vacated by Bergeron and Krejci.

Jeremy Swayman Contract Settled Via Arbitration

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Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman has been awarded a $3.475MM one-year contract in arbitration, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

This news comes just a few hours after the team reached an agreement on a two-year contract with their other pending RFA, Trent Frederic. They now have cost certainty on their roster for next season, although CapFriendly projects them to have just over $3.1MM in cap space before this award is factored in, meaning they stand just over $600k above the $83.5MM salary cap with a full roster.

In our more detailed breakdown of Swayman’s arbitration case, we projected an award between $3.55MM and $3.75MM. This award comes in just below that projection, although it is ever so slightly above the mid-point between the two parties’ filings. Swayman had filed for a $4.8MM AAV while the Bruins filed for $2MM, making the mid-point $3.4MM.

Swayman gets a little bit more than that, and although that’s far from the $4.8MM he filed for it still represents a significant pay raise from the $925k against the cap he cost in 2022-23.

He fully earned that hefty pay raise with his play last season, as well. In his age-24 season, Swayman played in 37 games and went 24-6-4 with a .920 save percentage and 2.27 goals-against-average.

While those numbers were undoubtedly aided by the Bruins’ historic regular season dominance and their exceptional group of defensemen, Swayman’s 2021-22 (.914 save percentage in 41 games) and 2020-21 (.945 save percentage in 10 games) beef up his resume.

Swayman was also an accomplished starter in his college days at the University of Maine, and looking at his performance at every level of hockey it’s hard to argue he’s not worth the $3.475MM he’s been awarded today. Where this leaves Boston, though, is in a curious spot.

Although some might assume that the Bruins would be interested in trading Swayman since they already have Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark entrenched as a starter, that’s highly unlikely to happen. As The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa noted in his recent mailbag, the Bruins believe an Ullmark-Swayman tandem “will be their position of strength for 2023-24” and help them return to the playoffs despite losing some high-end talent in Patrice Bergeron, Dmitry Orlov, and Tyler Bertuzzi. (subscription link)

Although Brandon Bussi is waiting in the wings playing for the AHL’s Providence Bruins and could be ready to handle backup duty, Ullmark does have a history of injuries earlier in his career and the safety Swayman provides to the Bruins’ goaltending depth is legitimately valuable.

That being said, one has to believe that Swayman will eventually want to be a true number-one goalie, as his talent certainly merits receiving that chance. Whether that chance will come in Boston remains to be seen.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Boston Bruins, Trent Frederic Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement

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11:00 AM: The Bruins have now officially announced the agreement, confirming the terms that were first reported by Friedman.

9:00 AM: The Boston Bruins have reached an agreement on a new contract with RFA forward Trent Frederic before today’s scheduled arbitration hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Bruins have agreed with Frederic on a two-year, $2.3MM AAV contract extension. According to Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland, the deal has a $250k signing bonus in its first year.

The contract comes closer to Frederic’s desired AAV (he had filed for a one-year, $2.9MM deal) at the cost of an extra year of term, something the Bruins filed for albeit at a $1.4MM AAV.

In our more detailed breakdown of Frederic’s arbitration case, we projected “Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM,” which is exactly where this settlement came in.

At a $150k higher rate than the midpoint of the two parties’ filings, the Bruins have rewarded their second 2016 first-round pick for his breakout 2022-23 campaign. Frederic flew past his career highs to register 17 goals and 31 points in 79 games last season even while averaging just under 12 minutes of ice time per night.

As mentioned in our breakdown, Frederic’s possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t likely to be that of a one-year wonder, although one does wonder how he’d hold up if exposed to a more demanding role requiring him to handle more substantial minutes.

Frederic doesn’t boast a ton of offensive skill but as a six-foot-three, 214-pound forward with the versatility to play center or along the wing Frederic is the sort of forward who plays with an edge and provides enough scoring touch to be coveted by many clubs. This settlement marches Frederic to the unrestricted free agent market in two year’s time, and if he can seize the significant opportunity in front of him he could be lined up for a major payday at that point.

With Boston’s top two centers from last season in Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out the door, Frederic could potentially get the opportunity to play center for one of Boston’s scoring lines, potentially slotting next to a star such as David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand. Although players such as Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are undoubtedly going to be first in line for those opportunities, Frederic could get his chance, which would be a potentially career-defining opportunity.

This two-year contract provides Frederic with a significant opportunity, but also heightened expectations. Now paid more than double the $1.05MM cap hit he played last season on, Frederic can no longer be the physical fourth-line presence he was earlier in his career. He’ll need to be more, and if he can do so he could stand to make quite a bit of money in two year’s time thanks to this new contract.

As for where this leaves the Bruins, they now have just over $3.1MM in cap space left over, and still await an arbitration award in netminder Jeremy Swayman’s case. Swayman had his arbitration hearing on July 30th and therefore should have his award come in today, meaning the Bruins are close to reaching cost certainty for the team’s expected 2023-24 roster.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. 

Arbitration Breakdown: Trent Frederic

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We’re entering the final few days of the salary arbitration calendar, meaning most of the remaining notable restricted free agents will have contracts in place for next season by the end of next week. There are a number of notable cases that remain unsettled, including a pair of high-end young goalies in the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and the Minnesota Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Swayman’s hearing is today, meaning we’ll learn his contractual fate for next season on Tuesday. However, there’s a teammate of Swayman’s and an important depth piece for the Bruins facing an arbitration hearing of his own – forward Trent Frederic, who now has just 48 hours remaining until his arbitration hearing on Tuesday.

Filings

Team: two years, $1.4MM AAV
Player: one year, $2.9MM AAV
Midpoint: $2.15MM AAV

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

2022-23 was a breakout year for Frederic, recording career highs in offensive categories across the board. While he may not be a long-term top-flight center solution as the Bruins envisioned when they selected him 29th overall in 2016, the 25-year-old has grown into an extremely effective bottom-six power forward. His scoring skyrocketed this season despite not seeing a major increase in ice time, and he didn’t sacrifice the solid defensive play he’d shown in his two prior full NHL seasons. His 17 goals were sixth on the powerhouse Bruins last year despite playing under 12 minutes per game.

If advanced analytics hold any bearing in arbitration hearings, Frederic’s side should use them to their advantage. Many of his possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t a fluke, as his ability to drive play has steadily grown during his time in the NHL. However, it is fair to wonder if an increase in ice time (and, therefore, tougher matchups) may diminish his effectiveness slightly. It’s an important factor to take into consideration, as Frederic is expected to play a bigger role on the Bruins next season with wing depth like Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi no longer on the team.

His NHL career doesn’t carry a terribly long track record, though, something that may give the arbitrator some pause. Frederic hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark in his career, and he only transformed into an everyday NHLer this season, oftentimes being healthy scratched at points throughout the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns.

2022-23 Stats: 79 GP, 17-14-31, +28 rating, 57 PIMs, 120 shots, 11:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 198 GP, 29-25-54, +25 rating, 194 PIMs, 284 shots, 11:27 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Frederic’s negotiation. 

Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks) – Kurashev is a few years younger than Frederic but has a similar amount of NHL experience. Like Frederic, he also posted career-highs in offensive categories last season but had less production and infinitely worse defensive results. However, Kurashev was relied upon to play heavy minutes (more than 17 minutes per game) for a lottery Blackhawks team – likely more responsibility than he was fit to handle. An arbitrator awarded Kurashev a $2.25MM AAV last week, coming in above the midpoint of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings. Given Frederic’s better scoring and two-way play but extremely sheltered minutes, this could fall close to the arbitrator’s final decision here.

Warren Foegele (Hurricanes) – This comparison may be a bit dated (Foegele had his arbitration award in November 2020), but played a much more similar role on the Hurricanes to Frederic’s on the Bruins than in the Kurashev comparison outlined above. After a season in which Foegele registered similar offensive production to Frederic (30 points in 68 games), an arbitrator awarded him a $2.15MM deal for the 2020-21 campaign. It presents a solid argument for the arbitrator to rule right down the middle of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings.

Artturi Lehkonen (Canadiens) – Lehkonen had filed for arbitration with the Canadiens in the summer of 2021, but the two sides came to a pre-hearing agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.3MM. Lehkonen was the same age as Frederic at the time of signing and produced similarly strong two-way results, although Lekhonen had significantly more NHL experience at the time of signing, with 338 games under his belt. However, he was coming off a down season – just seven goals and 13 points in 47 games, hurting his stock.

Projection

No matter what, it does seem Frederic will be signing a two-year contract unless the arbitrator awards significantly in his favor. As Frederic was the party that filed for arbitration, Boston is free to choose between a one-year or two-year pact based on the AAV awarded by the arbitrator. The contract would walk Frederic directly to unrestricted free agency, but it’s something Boston is evidently comfortable with based on their filing.

The comparisons outlined place Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM. It seems unlikely the arbitrator would go any higher than $2.5MM on an award, though, especially considering his limited ice time and consistent fourth-line role. Regardless, it’s likely he’ll more than double his $1.05MM salary from the last two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Bruins Looking To “Bolster” Center Position

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Often, periods of sustained success lead to a quick and rough-and-tumble downfall in today’s NHL. That chain of events appears to be set in motion with the Boston Bruins, who are now facing some significant forward depth issues after a tight salary cap crunch and the retirement of captain Patrice Bergeron earlier this week. With Bergeron and longtime teammate David Krejci not expected to return as their two top pivots down the middle, team president Cam Neely told reporters, including Joe Haggerty, today that the team is doing “whatever we can to bolster that position.”

If Neely isn’t bluffing, expect that to lead to pretty immediate trade speculation regarding the Bruins and some of the top centers potentially available on the trade market. They still have some runway this offseason to make a move before the 2023-24 campaign starts, although a move could always come closer to next year’s trade deadline if the team feels they can be competitive enough to at least stay in the playoff race until that point.

Haggerty mentioned two candidates who, by public consensus, should make the most sense – Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames and Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets. Both have loads of experience shouldering first-line minutes and are pending UFAs next summer, with the status of contract extensions up in the air. If you’re a Bruins fan, don’t hold your breath, though – any trade will be incredibly tough to pull off with limited financial maneuverability and a lack of top-flight assets in the cupboard.

That being said, when a team official says all avenues are being exhausted, it’s fair to speculate about a deal. The Bruins do have a couple of pieces capable of top-six minutes in Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, but more is needed for a team no longer stacked with depth scoring on the wings and still having playoff aspirations. Lindholm immediately jumps out as a better fit with Boston than Scheifele, if for no other reason than his lower cap hit. Locked in at just $4.85MM next year, a move centered around someone like defenseman Matt Grzelcyk could be palatable for the B’s if Calgary obliges – the Flames may be looking for someone to replace pending UFA defenseman Noah Hanifin if they trade him as well.

Not only that, he’s a much better direct stylistic replacement for Bergeron than Scheifele. No one will come close to Bergeron’s two-way dominance (and calling him dominating may be an understatement), but Lindholm has garnered significant Selke consideration in the past two seasons and has posted better point production than Bergeron in the past few seasons.

Scheifele may have a slightly higher offensive ceiling with a longer history of point-per-game seasons, but he’d be harder to fit in at a $6.125MM cap hit. Boston doesn’t exactly have the assets to spare to convince a team (or third party) to retain salary in a deal. While incredibly skilled, Scheifele also consistently ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive impacts. He’d be a fine stopgap and a significant upgrade on their current options, but if the Bruins have a choice between the two candidates mentioned, Scheifele will likely be their second pick.

Other than those two, the list of centers available on the trade market that would be significant upgrades over their current options is quite slim, at least among pending 2024 UFAs. There’s also another Flame who could be available on the market in Mikael Backlund, but he’s not quite viewed as a bonafide number-one center despite his elite defensive capabilities.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jeremy Swayman

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Today, The Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman filed their arbitration numbers, and according to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Boston has filed at $2MM for one year, while Swayman has asked for $4.8MM. The 24-year-old netminder and the Bruins have until Sunday to work out a deal before they will go to arbitration.

Swayman’s number is sure to shock some people, but that is typically how this process works. The team files a lowball number, and the player files high. The arbitrator’s decision typically falls somewhere in the middle, as was the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Swayman is coming off the best season of his career and does have considerable leverage in these negotiations. The Anchorage, Alaska native posted a 24-6-4 record this past year with a .920 save percentage and a 2.27 goals-against average. His save percentage was good enough for fourth in the league trailing only Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Swayman’s partner Linus Ullmark. Speaking of Ullmark, his presence complicates the situation with Swayman because he is coming off a career year as well, one in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. Ullmark also has two years left on his contract and is unlikely to be moved this late in the summer.

The Bruins do have a bit of cap space to sign Swayman, however, they will want to keep the cap hit as low as possible since they have other pressing needs throughout their lineup from free agency departures and the retirement of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have a hair under $5.5MM in cap space and could be presented with some major challenges if the arbitrator rules a salary that is close to Swayman’s filing.

For Swayman, he will be looking to cash in on what has been a terrific career thus far. He just completed the three-year-contract entry-level contract that paid him $925K this past season, and while his filing is on the high side, he will likely triple or quadruple his salary this upcoming season.

A lot of teams will take a player to arbitration in the hopes of laying the groundwork for future salary cap management. However, in this case, Boston is just trying to stay cap compliant and keep as much of their team intact as they can.

Filings

Team: $2MM (one-year)
Player: $4.8MM (one-year)
Midpoint: $3.4MM

(via Friedman)

The Numbers

As mentioned above, 2022-23 saw Swayman have a career year, and while he was phenomenal when he did play, his sample size is still quite small. Swayman has never played in more than 41 games and hasn’t had to carry the workload in Boston since he’s always had the benefit of playing behind a bonafide number-one goaltender. There is a good argument to be made that it isn’t any fault of Swayman’s, and he can only play the games he plays. However, he is asking for starting goaltender money, and up to this point, he hasn’t been a starter. You can look to other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had star backups in Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, but both of those netminders struggled with injuries and inconsistency once they were appointed as starters.

For Swayman, this season wasn’t all that far off from last season. His save percentage was slightly better, and he lost fewer games. However, he also played behind a far superior team than he did in previous seasons. That is also something that critics will point to, Swayman plays behind one of the best teams in the league, and again, that isn’t his fault. But it could be a knock the Bruins use in the ugly process that is arbitration.

From Swayman’s perspective, despite being mostly a backup, he can point to the fact that he’s taken over the net in consecutive postseasons from Ullmark. While that isn’t proof of anything, it does give his arbitration case credibility and showcase that the Bruins view the youngster as an NHL starter.

Swayman is also not a one-year wonder and can point to a few seasons of sustained success at the NHL level. Since he made his NHL debut in 2020-21, he has posted an impressive nine shutouts in 82 starts and is second in the NHL in goals-against average with a 2.40, and he also ranks fifth in save percentage with a .920 career save percentage. Some people might point to those numbers and say Swayman is the benefactor or a good team in front of him, and that is fair. However, if you take a deep dive into his numbers, you will find that over the course of his career, he has posted a ridiculous 33.8 goals saved above expected.

It will be interesting to see how the Bruins value Swayman. Do they see him as a long-term starting netminder, or is their view that he is a strong backup? You have to wonder if the Bruins had more cap space this summer if they wouldn’t try and lock him into a long-term deal at a reasonable cap hit. But that isn’t the world Boston is living in, and unfortunately for them, they are up against the cap and up against a player who has been terrific for them for quite some time.

This is a tough case to pin down due to the volatility of the goaltending position. However, given that the Maple Leafs and Samsonov just went through this process, it seems likely that the arbitrator will rule somewhere close to the middle of the two sides’ filings.

2022-23 Stats: 37GP 24W 6L 4T/O .920SV% 2.27GAA 4SO

Career Stats: 88GP 54W 23L 7T/0 .920SV% 2.24GAA 9SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Ilya Samsonov (Maple Leafs) – Samsonov was just awarded a one-year deal for $3.55MM and is the obvious comparison for Swayman. However, it may serve as a “low-end” comparable for what his awarded contract could look like. Swayman is two years younger than Samsonov, and although he has a shorter track record, Swayman’s career numbers are vastly superior. However, if you look at just this past season in a vacuum, their numbers are quite similar. They sport an almost identical save percentage with a .01 difference, Swayman’s goals-against was .06 percent better and Samsonov dressed in five more games. A key point is the perception of the two goaltenders at the end of the year is different, despite coming to similar finales. Samsonov is widely viewed as Toronto’s starter heading into next year, while Swayman is firmly viewed as the Bruins’ backup. This perception could be a difference-maker in the eyes of an arbitrator. But, if they look strictly at the numbers, one will think that Swayman could be staring down a higher salary next year.

Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – This comparison is a bit older, but it still applies to Swayman’s situation, given the flat-cap world we are living in. Jarry signed a three-year, $3.5MM AAV pact with the Penguins after his 2020-21 season, a year where he went 20-12-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average while being named to the all-star game. Unlike Swayman, Jarry ended that campaign firmly viewed as the Penguins goaltender of the future after Matt Murray faltered in the playoffs once again. Pittsburgh knew that Jarry was their goaltender of the future and locked him up to a bridge deal. To that point in his career, Jarry had played just 62 games and had gone 34-20-4. Despite the lack of playing time, the then 26-year-old was viewed as a bonafide starter, something that Swayman might have to wait to be labeled.

Projection

Swayman has been terrific thus far in his career, however, his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $4.8MM AAV ask. However, he’s aiming high, and he has an excellent case to top Samsonov’s $3.55MM contract and Jarry’s $3.5AAV from 2020. I would have to guess that Swayman will be awarded something in the $3.55MM – $3.75MM range.

If Swayman can post numbers similar to what he has done thus far in his career, one would have to think that Boston will push to trade Ullmark next season and finally anoint Swayman as their number-one goalie. Swayman has probably earned a bridge deal at this point but given that he plays on a team as good as the Bruins, there is only so much money to go around. He will have to wait to get his security, but for now, he should get a nice pay bump next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Bruins Might Benefit From Learning Jake DeBrusk's Asking Price Sooner Than Later

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  • While the Bruins are right now focusing on the pending arbitration hearings for Jeremy Swayman and Trent Frederic, Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald opines that Boston also needs to get a sense of what Jake DeBrusk’s next contract is going to cost. Now extension-eligible as he’s in the final year of his deal, the winger could theoretically be used in a trade for a center if they decide to try to make a move to replace Patrice Bergeron if they find themselves too far apart in discussions.  The 26-year-old has a $4MM AAV for next season and stands to be in line for a raise on that next summer after recording 27 goals and 23 assists in 64 games in 2022-23.

Swayman, Frederic Arbitration Decisions Could Be Influenced By Previous Decisions

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The Boston Bruins got some expected but tough news today, with captain and two-way dynamo Patrice Bergeron retiring after a fruitful 19-year career with the club. However, their focus can’t drift too far away from their main to-do list items still unchecked this offseason: new contracts for restricted free agents Jeremy Swayman and Trent Frederic.

Boston is facing arbitration hearings with both players. Swayman’s is up first on July 30, while Frederic’s is slated for August 1. The two parties have up until the start of the hearing to settle on a deal themselves – otherwise, their next contracts will be decided by an independent arbitrator. Independent Bruins reporter Joe Haggerty surmised today that a pair of recent arbitrators’ decisions, Chicago’s Philipp Kurashev (two years, $2.25MM AAV) and Toronto’s Ilya Samsonov (one year, $3.55MM AAV), have set the framework for Frederic’s and Swayman’s deals if they both reach arbitration. It’s worth noting that Samsonov was only eligible for a one-year deal via arbitration, given his pending UFA eligibility next season, while Swayman is still eligible for two. Even so, a combined $5.8MM cap hit for Frederic and Swayman would push the Bruins to the limit of the salary cap, per CapFriendly, and would likely result in the team carrying less than the maximum 23-man roster to start the season.

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