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Assessing The Defenseman Trade Market Post-Karlsson Trade

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It had been almost a month since a higher-profile player in the NHL had been traded, and most would argue that it was the domino that needed to fall to open up the trade market for defensemen. This summer, we have seen names such as Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex DeBrincat, and Taylor Hall all moved in trades, but a big-name trade had not been made for a defenseman since the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired Damon Severson on June 9th.

For the most part, there are two defensemen that may have seen their market open up due to the Erik Karlsson trade, and that would include Brett Pesce of the Carolina Hurricanes and Noah Hanifin of the Calgary Flames. Both players’ trade availability is surrounded by different circumstances, and both of their current teams have much different outlooks for next season.

Starting with Pesce, back in June, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported that the Hurricanes were intent on moving Pesce this summer if they were unable to come to a contract resolution past this season. About a week later, Cory Lavalette of The Athletic noted that Pesce would likely be seeking a contract in the eight-year, $52MM ($6.5MM AAV) range, something that Carolina could easily afford, but with Teuvo Teravainen, Martin Necas, and Brady Skjei, among others, also needing contracts past the 2023-24 season, may not be in the team’s best interest.

Although it would be a prudent move both financially and for the future success of the club to move on from Pesce, questions should arise as to if it is in the best interest of the current Hurricanes team in accordance with their goals for the 2023-24 season. Carolina is one of the most well-set-up teams to make the Stanley Cup Final next season, and their defensive depth is one of the main reasons for that. For most of the foreseeable contenders in the NHL, teams could do a lot worse than having Anthony DeAngelo as their sixth-best defenseman on the roster.

One of the best comparables to Pesce’s situation might come from a division rival in Severson. Severson had spent a total of nine seasons in New Jersey, and even though he was heading towards unrestricted free agency, the Devils held on to Severson as he gave them a much better chance to win. This summer, the Devils executed a sign-and-trade, inking Severson to an extension and receiving a third-round pick for his services from the Blue Jackets. This may not be the haul that Carolina would be hoping for, but it’s undeniable that Pesce gives them a better chance to win for 2023-24, and may have to seek a sign-and-trade next summer.

Unlike Pesce, Hanifin has already been vocal about his unwillingness to sign an extension in Calgary and would like a change of scenery heading into next year. A solid defenseman on both the powerplay and penalty kill, Hanifin should likely have a decent market as a two-way defenseman. Currently making just a tad under $5MM this season, it’s going to be difficult for a lot of contending teams to absorb that contract even for a short time.

Just to theorize, there is one team that has their eyes on contending next year and could certainly use an upgrade on the left side of their defense. The Buffalo Sabres have already improved their defensive core with the additions of Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson this summer, but an acquisition of Hanifin may put them over the top to get back into the playoffs. The main drawbacks from Buffalo’s perspective in acquiring Hanifin are the current glut of defensemen already on their roster, and the pressing extensions of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power.

With Calgary already having a murky future on their blue line, the Sabres could certainly move back a defenseman or two with team control, and with it all but known that Hanifin wants out, the price may not be too high for his services. If they are able to acquire Hanifin and extend him, Buffalo could be well served in having Dahlin, Power, Hanifin, and Mattias Samuelsson in their top four for the foreseeable future.

All-in-all, we are getting to the point in the summer where the most likely scenario is both Pesce and Hanifin will start the season with their current clubs, but there are some signs indicating changes will be coming soon. All we know for certain, the trade for Karlsson has helped set the market, as well as open it up for any future moves.

Poll: Who Won The Erik Karlsson Trade?

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For the first time in quite some time, the hockey world saw a blockbuster in early August, watching the San Jose Sharks trade defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a three-team deal. In recent trades over the last several years, teams have typically weaponized cap space as a third-team, retaining salary and usually getting mid to late-round picks in return. A unique aspect of this trade, however, is that the third team, the Montreal Canadiens, were able to take care of some business they had been hoping to accomplish for a while, namely removing forward Mike Hoffman’s salary off their books.

Running up to the Karlsson trade, speculation had arisen about how much the Sharks would eventually retain on Karlsson’s contract, and for the most part, it was much lower than many experts had theorized. San Jose only retained $1.5MM (13%) of Karlsson’s $11.5MM salary, effectively clearing $10MM from their cap table over the next four years. Nevertheless, the Sharks did take back salary in exchange with Hoffman ($4.5MM), Mikael Granlund ($5MM), and Jan Rutta ($2.75MM), but all three of these deals will be off their books after the 2024-25 NHL season.

Lastly, at face value, the Penguins appear to be the undeniable winner in this deal. Even though he has not played a game for Pittsburgh, acquiring the best player in the deal always looks good. Surprisingly though, and maybe even more importantly long-term than acquiring Karlsson, the Penguins were able to move some poor contracts out from the Ron Hextall era, including Granlund, Rutta, Casey DeSmith ($1.8MM), and Jeff Petry ($4.69MM – 25% retained). New General Manager Kyle Dubas was able to add a $10MM player in Karlsson, while also creating $3MM of cap space in the same deal, a feat that has been largely difficult for most teams in the salary cap era.

Now that the complete trade is public and final, and knowing the perspectives of all three teams, who do you think ultimately won the Karlsson trade?

Who Won The Erik Karlsson Trade?
Pittsburgh Penguins 59.75% (1,642 votes)
Montreal Canadiens 27.98% (769 votes)
San Jose Sharks 12.26% (337 votes)
Total Votes: 2,748

New York Rangers Hire Christian Hmura

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According to Mollie Walker of the New York Post, the New York Rangers have added Christian Hmura to their coaching staff, who will now serve as the Skills and Performance Development coach. Walker notes that Hmura will strictly aid in the development of Rangers’ prospects, and work directly under the Director of Player Development, Jed Ortmeyer.

Hmura will replace Mark Ciaccio in his new role, but Ciaccio will stay on with the team as a Prospect Development Skills coach. In recent seasons, as they have aimed to compete for the Stanley Cup, New York has thinned out their prospect pool to a small degree, but Hmura will still get to work with promising talent such as Brennan Othmann, Will Cuylle, and recently drafted, Gabriel Perreault.

At any rate, this is a big step forward personally for Hmura, as he had recently been involved with the Chicago Mission AAA organization since the 2021-22 season. During his time with the organization, the Mission had six players selected in the 2022 and 2023 NHL Draft combined, including Brennan Ali (Detroit), Jack Devine (Florida), Joey Willis (Nashville), Jack Phelan (Detroit), Paul Fischer (St.Louis), as well as Perreault from New York.

It will likely be a difficult transition for Hmura into professional hockey, but the success of the Mission speaks for itself. Along with Shattucks St. Mary’s, Little Caesars, and Compuware, the Chicago Mission program is one of the most well-respected organizations in all of youth hockey, and Hmura’s time with the team only led to continued success. Only time will tell if his coaching tactics translate well to more NHL-ready level prospects.

AHL Notes: Teasdale, Ivan, Reilly, Khodorenko

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A now-former veteran of the AHL’s Laval Rocket, forward Joel Teasdale is in a confirmed minor-league contract with the Iowa Wild. Teasdale had spent the past four seasons on the Rocket, also suiting up for the Montreal Canadiens for a few games last season.

Joining the Canadiens system as an undrafted free agent, Teasdale joined Laval towards the end of the 2019-20 season, but would not play for the club until the following season due to a knee injury. In his rookie campaign in the AHL, Teasdale provided some solid depth scoring, putting up eight goals and 10 assists in 26 games.

Last season, in what has been his best season to date, Teasdale would score 23 goals and 15 assists in 58 games for the Rocket but failed to chip in any in two playoff games. This ranked Teasdale as the fourth-highest scorer in Laval, and he should finish around the same in Iowa next season.

Other notes:

  • The highest-scoring member of the Cape Breton Eagles last year, Ivan Ivan, has agreed to an AHL contract with the Colorado Eagles for the 2023-24 season. Last season for the Eagles, Ivan put up 33 goals and 57 assists in only 64 games, showing some significant offensive prowess from the center position. Already carrying solid depth down the middle of the ice, there is a real chance that Ivan starts the year with the team’s ECHL affiliate, the Utah Grizzles, but if Ivan continues his offensive development, he may turn into a solid prospect for the Colorado Avalanche organization.
  • The Charlotte Checkers have added some roster depth this morning, announcing separate one-year, two-way contracts for defenseman Will Reilly, and forward Patrick Khodorenko. Both players should be considered on the bubble for the upcoming season, either appearing in the AHL for the Checkers or the Florida Everblades of the ECHL. Reilly likely has the best shot to make the team, playing in 30 games for the Tucson Roadrunners last year, scoring five points in total.

Analyzing The Canadiens Salary Cap Options

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For months, it has been known that the Montreal Canadiens have been seeking to shed the contract of forward Mike Hoffman, a deal that has not worked out for either side. This morning, due to their involvement in the trade that sent Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins, they were able to move on from Hoffman, sending him to the San Jose Sharks, as well as moving forward Rem Pitlick to the Penguins.

The Canadiens were able to re-acquire defenseman Jeff Petry, and also goaltender Casey DeSmith as significant salary added to the club. All-in-all, even after moving out Hoffman and Pitlick, the Canadiens added just under $900k in total salary.

After the trade, CapFriendly brought up an interesting note, indicating that Montreal will likely take their cap space in one of two directions, largely focused on the $10.5MM in LTIR relief from goaltender Carey Price’s contract (Tweet Link). As of right now, the Canadiens would have roughly $5.3MM in cap space after putting Price’s contract on LTIR, meaning they could either shed about $5.2MM, negating the need to put Price’s contract on LTIR, or add another $5.2MM, maximizing the total salary relief they could get.

Given their likely competitive outlook for the 2023-24 season, it may be wise for Montreal to attempt to shed more salary and keep Price’s contract off of LTIR, allowing them to weaponize their cap space during the 2024 NHL trade deadline. Even after trading Hoffman and Pitlick, the Canadiens should have room on their current roster to find minutes for the likes of Sean Farrell, Lias Andersson, and Mitchell Stephens, among others.

Not only do they have young forwards ready to play, but the team also has a significant amount of young defensemen ready to play as well. To shed a significant amount of salary, as well as opening up time for some of their younger talent to step up, it may be wise for the team to move on from defenseman David Savard and forward Christian Dvorak. With rumors circulating that the trade market for defensemen will now be opening up thanks to the move of Karlsson, there may be buyers willing to give Savard a shot in their top four. In Dvorak’s case, rumors shortly before the start of free agency indicated that Montreal would like to move on from the forward if possible.

If the Canadiens move these two veterans and do not take on any significant salary in return, it would be more than enough space to keep Price’s contract off of LTIR. Nevertheless, it will be interesting what direction General Manager Kent Hughes takes in regard to this situation, but there will likely be more clarity on the subject in the approach to training camp starting in September.

Karlsson Notes: Defense Market, Money Retention, Interested Teams

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A short time after the news broke of Erik Karlsson officially joining the Pittsburgh Penguins, news surfaced that defenseman Mathew Dumba and the Arizona Coyotes were expected to reach a one-year agreement. Cory Lavalette of the North State Journal thinks that with the Karlsson trade drama wrapped up, this might have unfrozen the slow-moving defenseman market this summer (Tweet Link). Lavalette surmised that the Carolina Hurricanes may now have a better market to move out one of their defensemen.

This view should be taken with a grain of salt, as Lavalette’s initial thought was in response to Elliotte Friedman announcing that the Coyotes and Dumba had come to an agreement. It may very well be true that the trade for Karlsson will lead to more defensemen being traded in the next couple of weeks, but given the vast differences in playstyle, and the unlikelihood that the Coyotes were one of the teams trying to acquire Karlsson, it would be difficult to draw any sort of correlation between these two moves.

However, in defense of Lavalette’s view, the Hurricanes do have a plethora of right-handed shooting defensemen, and with rumors earlier in the offseason indicating the team might be interested in moving on from defenseman Brett Pesce, the other team’s interested in Karlsson could consider Pesce a solid consolation prize. Even though their play styles are not similar, Pesce would largely be an improvement to any team’s right-hand side of their defensive core.

Other notes:

  • One of the more surprising aspects of the Karlsson trade this morning was the money retained by the San Jose Sharks in the deal. Most recent reporting indicated that the Sharks and a potential third team would have to retain at least $3.5MM (30.4%) of Karlsson’s contract in total to make the deal financially work for the Penguins. Instead, even though the Montreal Canadiens were involved in the deal as well, the only retention came from the Sharks at $1.5MM (13%) of Karlsson’s $11.5MM salary. A Sharks beat writer, Curtis Pashelka reported that a lot of retention scenarios were on the table, and Mike Grier made a point to get it as low as possible. This reasonably impacted the return for San Jose, but it was a solid part of the deal for the Sharks, nonetheless.
  • Also speaking to Grier about the Karlsson trade, Greg Wyshynski of ESPN reports there were actually two other teams down to the wire in the trade negotiations. For weeks now, all signs had pointed to Pittsburgh as the eventual landing spot for Karlsson, with the Hurricanes, Seattle Kraken, and Toronto Maple Leafs having noted interest as well. Grier would not indicate which teams specifically, but it is an interesting factoid at the very least.

Gilles Gilbert Passes Away At 74

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A veteran of fourteen years in the National Hockey League from 1970-1983, goaltender Gilles Gilbert passed away this morning at the age of 74, per Kevin Allen of Detroit Hockey Now. Gilbert is best known for being in net for the Boston Bruins in the 1979 playoffs, where Guy Lafleur of the Montreal Canadiens would score the game-tying goal with less than two minutes left in Game Seven of the semi-finals, turning the tide in favor of the Canadiens.

Gilbert was originally drafted in the third round of the 1969 NHL Amateur Draft by the Minnesota North Stars, at that point making him the 25th overall pick. In four seasons spent with the North Stars, Gilbert would play in a total of 44 games, securing a 16-22-5 record, and carrying a .896 SV% and a 3.40 GAA. In May of 1973, Gilbert was traded to Boston in exchange for forward Fred Stanfield.

His time with the Bruins would undoubtedly be the best stretch of his career, playing 277 games over seven years donning the spoked ’B’. For the first four seasons with Boston, Gilbert, and the team would make the postseason in each season, with Gilbert receiving a majority of the starts in the regular season. In total, Gilbert finished his time with the Bruins with a 155-73-39 record, posting a .890 SV% and a 2.95 GAA. As his time in Boston came to a close, he was traded to a separate Original Six franchise, joining the Detroit Red Wings after a 1980 trade for goalie Rogie Vachon.

No longer benefitting from a strong team in front of him in Detroit, Gilbert’s time with the Red Wings wasn’t nearly as successful. In three seasons to finish his career, Gilbert concluded his career with a 21-48-16 record in 95 games, holding a .858 SV% and a 4.14 GAA. He would retire after the 1983 season with a career record of 192-143-60, and a .883 SV% with a 3.27 GAA. After retiring, Gilbert went back to the province of Quebec, where he would remain for the rest of his days.

All of us at PHR would like to offer our condolences to Gilbert’s family.

Crafting A Hypothetical Erik Karlsson Trade To Penguins

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Earlier today, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported that some “clarity” is expected on the Erik Karlsson trade speculation by this upcoming weekend. It will end just over two months of heavy trade speculation, and all signs point to Karlsson heading East to join the Pittsburgh Penguins.

In other news from Pittsburgh this morning, even though it is never a positive for a player to get injured, strictly speaking financially, the Penguins will open up $6MM in cap space due to forward Jake Guentzel’s ankle surgery, landing him on LTIR to begin the regular season. Once Guentzel is put on LTIR at the beginning of the season, Pittsburgh will have just under $2.8MM in salary cap wiggle room.

Now, with any hypothetical Karlsson trade, a significant hurdle to jump will be how much the San Josh Sharks are willing to retain on his contract. It’s been reported multiple times that the Sharks seem willing to retain 30% of his contract, which would knock Karlsson’s salary down to $8MM over the next four seasons. Keeping this in mind, the Penguins would only need to send around $5.25MM back to the Sharks, if and only if they are not seeking any additional cap space.

The most obvious choice would be to move Jeff Petry’s $6.25MM contract back the other way to San Jose, but with a 15-team no-trade list included in his contract, it would be reasonable to assume the Sharks would be on that list, and the likelihood of Petry accepting a deal to San Jose would be slim. In fact, most of the contracts that the Penguins would want to remove from their roster, have very hefty no-movement clauses, complicating any potential trade in the near future.

However, there is one player who would meet the criteria and was even rumored to be headed toward a buyout in mid-June. That player would be Mikael Granlund, acquired from the Nashville Predators at last year’s trade deadline, and currently sporting a $5MM salary for the next two seasons. Throw in defenseman Jan Rutta and his $2.75MM, also creating an opening on the right-hand side of their blue line, and all of the salary intangibles are worked out.

In terms of which prospects and draft capital should be expected to head back to San Jose, let’s consider General Manager Mike Grier’s first high-profile trade, moving Timo Meier to the New Jersey Devils at last season’s trade deadline. In that deal, the Sharks acquired a salary filler in Andreas Johnsson, a young NHL-ready talent in Fabian Zetterlund, two prospects in Nikita Okhotyuk and Shakir Mukhamadullin, as well as a first and second-round pick.

Given this context, it would be reasonable to assume that Karlsson will command a similar package to Meier, and the Penguins should have the necessary parts to make this happen. The salary fillers are already worked out in Granlund and Rutta, and defenseman Ty Smith seems exactly the type of young NHL-ready talent the Sharks would be pursuing in a package like this. Not too long ago, Smith was projected as one of the better prospects in New Jersey’s system, but ever since coming over in a trade to Pittsburgh, the Penguins just have not been able to give him the amount of ice time that is conducive with his growth.

For prospects, it is going to be very difficult for San Jose to poach away any of Brayden Yager, Owen Pickering, or Joel Blomqvist from the Penguins farm system, but there is another talent that should suffice. Forward Tristan Broz as well as forward Valtteri Puustinen seem like the best choices outside of those top three. Broz is a second-round pick of the Penguins from the 2021 NHL Draft, and he recently wrapped up a 28-point campaign with the University of Denver in the NCAA. Puustinen, on the other hand, is a bit closer to NHL-ready than Broz, scoring 59 points in 72 games in the AHL as a 24-year-old.

Pittsburgh is also in possession of most of its draft picks for the next several seasons, and given the Sharks’ projected draft capital for the foreseeable future, might target top picks during the 2025 or 2026 NHL Draft. In all realism, the Sharks will likely want Pittsburgh’s 2025 first-round pick, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026, crafting those conditions in a way where the pick could be upgraded to a first.

And there you have it. The hypothetical trade in its entirety would be the Penguins acquiring Karlsson (30% retained), while the Sharks would acquire, Granlund, Rutta, Smith, Broz, Puustinen, a first-round pick in 2025, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026. In any manner, we should know in a few short days what the Karlsson trade package will look like in its entirety.

Free Agent Profile: Adam Erne

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Since being drafted 33rd overall in the 2013 NHL, forward Adam Erne has been following General Manager Steve Yzerman around for his entire career. Yzerman was General Manager that originally drafted Erne with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and after Yzerman made his return to the Detroit Red Wings, one of his first moves was to acquire Erne for a fourth-round selection in the 2020 NHL Draft.

While playing for the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL, Erne seemed to be one of the more promising power forwards in his class. Playing his last year in juniors during the 2015-16 season, Erne scored 41 goals and 45 assists in 60 games, also racking up 102 PIMS in total. Unfortunately for the Lightning and the Red Wings, those talents have yet to translate to the NHL, and likely never will given Erne’s career track record.

If it had not been for injuries, Erne likely would have recorded career totals in all facets of the game, but going on the injured reserve seven times during four seasons with Detroit, Erne could never keep up any momentum. This past year was so poor that the Red Wings decided to place Erne on waivers in February, and he spent the next month in the AHL.

Nevertheless, being able to put up 20 points in a year will always have value in the NHL, and Erne might benefit from playing on the fourth line of a competitive team. He will surely garner less than his $2.1MM salary over the last two years, making him an affordable option for all 32 teams in the NHL.

Stats

2022-23: 61 GP, 8-10-18, -12 rating, 21 PIMS, 55 shots, 37.5% CF, 13:23 ATOI
Career: 355 GP, 40-49-89, -59 rating, 171 PIMS, 436 shots, 45.9% CF, 12:21 ATOI

Potential Suitors

For any team to be taking a shot at Erne at this point in his career, the team must be confident that he is an immediate improvement to their bottom six forward core. Taking that into account, it would be reasonable to assume that the Colorado Avalanche, Lightning, and Washington Capitals could all be possible fits for Erne’s services.

As of right now, the Avalanche are projected to have 12 forwards in their opening night lineup, with both Ben Meyers and Fredrik Olofsson making up the bottom tier of their forward group. To say the least, given his track record, Erne would almost certainly be a much stronger producer for the Avalanche than either Meyers or Olofsson on the wing. Neither forward has sniffed 20 points up to this point in their careers, but to their credit, they have both played far fewer years than Erne. The only drawback to Erne joining the Avalanche is the fact that he does not profile as a player being able to fit into Colorado’s high-speed offensive approach.

Similarly to Colorado, a reunion with Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense for both parties. Logan Brown and Alex Barre-Boulet currently project as the bottom forwards in the Lightning’s lineup, and Erne would give the team an improvement in that area. Brown has yet to live up to his draft status as an 11th overall pick, and although being one of the best players in the AHL over the last several years, Barre-Boulet has not produced to the same level in the NHL.

Not the same degree as Colorado or Tampa Bay, Erne could be an interesting fit into the Capitals’ bottom six. Hopefully, Max Pacioretty will make his debut with the club at some point this season, giving the team some added forward depth. Before Pacioretty returns, Washington certainly has the capability to improve upon forward Joe Snively at the bottom of their lineup, and Erne would do just that. Snively has yet to score over seven points in the last two seasons while averaging approximately the same amount of ice time as Erne.

Projected Contract

If any team does commit to a full NHL contract for Erne, it will almost certainly be a one-year, $775k agreement. Due to his relatively low production, as well as his injury history over the last several seasons, unfortunately, Erne has lost all hope of any team being willing to go beyond that number. However, at this point in the offseason, it would be more than rare to see a team give a guaranteed contract to a player of his caliber. Erne is most likely headed for a professional tryout agreement in September, where he will have the responsibility of earning his roster spot during training camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Update On The Top Remaining RFA’s

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Since the opening of free agency on July 1st of this summer, there have been 300 contracts signed in the NHL. A bulk of those contracts have been unrestricted free agents signing with new teams, but also include restricted free agents garnering new deals with the current clubs, as well as some notable extensions.

The financial landscape around the league is very near to being set in stone before the start of training camp in September. Nevertheless, there are still a handful of restricted free agents left without new contracts who either did not file for arbitration or are ineligible to do so.

Per CapFriendly, in order of previous salary, the complete list is as follows:

  1. F Trevor Zegras – Anaheim Ducks
  2. F Alexis Lafreniere – New York Rangers
  3. D Tim Berni – Columbus Blue Jackets
  4. D Jamie Drysdale – Anaheim Ducks
  5. F Shane Pinto – Ottawa Senators
  6. D Logan Stanley – Winnipeg Jets
  7. F Joe Veleno – Detroit Red Wings
  8. D Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers
  9. F Noah Philp – Edmonton Oilers
  10. F Egor Sokolov – Ottawa Senators
  11. D Declan Chisholm – Winnipeg Jets
  12. F Morgan Frost – Philadelphia Flyers
  13. F Jan Jenik – Arizona Coyotes
  14. D Calen Addison – Minnesota Wild

Immediately jumping off the list is the two notable building blocks in Anaheim, Zegras and Drysdale. After a solid year during the 2021-22 regular season, Drysdale was injured for much of last year due to a torn labrum, an injury that would limit him to only eight games played all year. Because of this, Drysdale might be boxed into a one-year deal for 2023-24, or he and the team could pursue a two-year, $5MM contract similar to the one Oliver Kylington signed with the Calgary Flames around this time last year.

Zegras, on the other hand, should have a much different approach to his contract negotiations with Anaheim. Over the past several years, the NHL has seen a large uptick in notable contract extensions given to young centers, the most recent example being Tim Stutzle’s eight-year, $66.8MM contract extension with the Ottawa Senators last September. After that contract was signed, Stutzle went from a 60-point pace in 2021-22 to a 90-point pace in 2022-23. Zegras is a very similar player to Stutzle (albeit Stutzle has shown the ability to be a better goal-scorer so far) but it will all come down to Pat Verbeek’s confidence in Zegras’ growth for next season. If he believes Zegras will become a star, a contract similar to Stutzle’s should largely be the aim of the team. If, however, Verbeek does not have the confidence in Zegras to become an above-average point scorer, Zegras may be in line for a one to two-year bridge deal.

Another name that should get a long look as a possible long-term extension candidate would be Frost on the Flyers. In his first season under new head coach, John Tortorella, Frost experienced a breakout year, scoring 46 points in 81 games. Although not having the track record typically necessary for a long-term extension, the rebuilding Philadelphia franchise has an opportunity to start securing its core for the future. Already moving on from Kevin Hayes, Frost projects as the team’s third-best forward for the upcoming season, and if the Flyers plan on contending in the next 5-7 years, a contract similar to Travis Konecny’s back in 2019 may not be the worst decision for the future of the franchise.

Lastly, two of the most complicated situations on the board come from Bouchard and Lafreniere. Suffice it to say, there is a legitimate chance that both players sit out a portion of training camp due to contract holdouts.

Both players are largely projected for bridge deals, given the cap space of their current clubs, but both of their markets have been impacted greatly this summer. In Bouchard’s case, the contracts given to Bowen Byram of the Colorado Avalanche, and K’Andre Miller of the New York Rangers, largely indicate what Bouchard should be expecting on his next deal. He should be expecting a two-year deal, somewhere in the $3.9MM-$4.1MM AAV range, and that’s something the Oilers do not have the space for currently. Bouchard’s importance to Edmonton was solidified last postseason, after scoring 17 points in 12 games, finishing third on the team in scoring. With only $3.5MM in cap space heading into the season, the Oilers are close to having enough space to fit in Bouchard, but will still need to make a move or two to fit in one of their best defensemen.

Unlike Bouchard, Lafreniere has largely disappointed in the context of his draft ranking (first overall in 2020). Patience seems to be growing thin with the young forward, even leading to rumors of a potential trade away from New York this summer. However, as many Vancouver Canucks fans should remember, franchise legend Daniel Sedin did not play like a top-three selection in his first three years in the league, either. This is not to say that Lafreniere will go on to produce as much as either Sedin twin, but a little more patience should be in order for the Rangers. With only $2.2MM remaining in cap space, and given his limited production over the past three seasons, Lafreniere should be expecting a two-year, $2.1MM-$2.5MM AAV for his next contract.

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