Summer Synopsis: Nashville Predators

With training camps now upon us, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done from a roster perspective.  Most unrestricted free agents have found new homes, the arbitration period has come and gone, and the trade market has cooled.  Accordingly, it’s a good time to take a look at what each team has accomplished this offseason.  Next up is a look at the Nashville Predators.

The Predators are a team that many felt would compete for a Stanley Cup last season after they made a massive splurge in free agency the previous summer, acquiring Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei. However, the high-priced spending spree had the opposite effect on Nashville, as the team became slow and disjointed, and was never able to put together a solid stretch of play to gain any traction. This summer, general manager Barry Trotz was much more conservative, opting to tweak a few things and run it back next season in the hopes that last year was an anomaly.

Draft

1-5 – F Brady Martin, Sault-Ste Marie (OHL)
1-21 – D Cameron Reid, Kitchener (OHL)
1-26 – F Ryker Lee, Barrie (OHL)
2-35 – D Jacob Romback, Lincoln (USHL)
2-58 – G Jack Ivankovic, Brampton (OHL)
4-122- D Alex Huang, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
6-163 – D Daniel Nieminen, Lahti Pelicans (Liiga)

Nashville will be hoping that Martin develops into a top-line player sooner rather than later, especially given their lack of depth at center. Martin is offensively capable, but what is more valuable than his scoring ability is his overall game and his capacity to play in various roles and assignments. Some scouts consider him a Swiss-Army knife who can adapt to many different roles. He has a high compete level and isn’t afraid to get physical, which should help him if his offensive game doesn’t immediately translate to the NHL or develops more slowly as he turns pro. Martin isn’t a pure scorer, but his floor in the NHL is likely as a top-nine forward, either at center or on the wing. Some believe he might be better suited to the wing, but given Nashville’s needs, he will be given every opportunity to become their center of the future.

With their second of three first-round picks, the Predators moved up in the draft to select OHL defenseman Reid. The Kitchener Rangers defender isn’t the most consistent defensively and can feel pressure with the puck in the defensive zone. Still, his offensive instincts are strong, and he is seen as a potential power-play quarterback.

With their third and final pick of the first round, the Predators picked Lee, a scoring forward who may take some time adjusting to the NHL before he settles in. Lee can struggle with consistency, which could be problematic as he attempts to become a full-time NHL player. Lee isn’t projected to be a topline forward, but he should be an excellent NHLer who surpasses 50 points per season.

With their second-round pick, the Predators drafted a very large defenseman in Rombach. Standing 6’6”, Rombach will intimidate opponents with his size and his mean streak, while playing a reliable defensive game. His offensive skills are limited and may require improvement if he hopes to make it to the NHL, as well as adjusting to the league’s speed. He is a project in many ways, but the Predators have a knack for developing their defenseman, so he should be in a good position for his growth.

Trade Acquisitions

D Nicolas Hague (from Vegas)
F Erik Haula (from New Jersey)

The Predators acquired Hague and a conditional third-round pick in exchange for forward Colton Sissons and defenseman Jeremy Lauzon. The Predators were quick to then sign Hague to a four-year extension worth a total of $22MM. The deal, in theory, made sense for Nashville as they needed help on the backend; however, the execution left a lot to be desired as the trade and subsequent contract extension received heavy criticism.

Nashville needed help on the right side, and Hague effectively slides into Nashville’s third pairing, which is probably where he belongs, given his skill set. The problem is that Hague slides into the left side, and this makes the trade and the $5.5MM AAV more puzzling. The idea might be to flip Roman Josi to the right side, but then it pushes Hague into the top four, which isn’t ideal. The main issue with giving Hague that money is that he isn’t suited for that role and will likely be forced to play above his perfect slot.

Haula was acquired from the Devils on June 18th in exchange for defenseman Jeremy Hanzel and a 2025 fourth-round pick. It’s reasonable to question why Nashville believed this move was necessary and to wonder what Nashville will gain from Haula at this stage of his career. Last year was a lacklustre season for the 34-year-old in nearly every statistical category, as his offense declined significantly along with his underlying numbers. At a $3.15MM cap hit, Haula isn’t a bargain, but he isn’t a drain on the salary cap either, or he’s signed for just this season. There’s a chance he bounces back into the 40-point range, and if he does, this trade is a win for Nashville. However, if he has a season similar to last year, it won’t be viewed positively in hindsight.

The trade was probably a result of Nashville desperately needing help in their bottom six, and although Haula isn’t exactly a game-changer, he provided a modest upgrade. The worst-case scenario for Nashville is that Haula and/or the team struggle, and he gets traded at the deadline for a package similar to what Nashville sent to the Devils.

UFA Signings

D Nicklaus Perbix (two years, $5.5MM)

GM Barry Trotz focused on strengthening his defensive core by signing Perbix to a two-year deal. The 27-year-old is a three-year NHL veteran who does a solid job of carrying and moving the puck and can add some offense. Despite his skills, he did turn the puck over quite a bit last year, which he will need to work on since he won’t be as protected in Nashville as he was in Tampa Bay.

Perbix has a good size at 6’4”, 209 lbs, but he doesn’t hit a lot, recording just 50 hits last season in 74 games. He had six goals and 13 assists last season, marking a decline from the previous year, when he scored two goals and had 22 assists in 77 games.

Nashville needed to strengthen the right side of its defensive core, and while there is nothing inherently wrong with Perbix, he isn’t likely to crack the top four, and if he does, it wouldn’t reflect well on the state of the Predators’ defensive core.

RFA Re-Signings

D Nicolas Hague (four years, $22MM) 

As mentioned earlier, the Hague extension presents issues because AFP Analytics projected him for a two-year deal at just over $2.6MM per season. That $5.2MM total package was exceeded by the $5.5MM AAV Hague actually received, which could be problematic if he performs as he has in the past. Hague’s contract aligns with extensions given to other defensemen, like Marcus Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks; however, Pettersson was a pending UFA and is a much better all-around defenseman and a proven top-four option.

Departures

F Kieffer Bellows (signed in Sweden)
D Marc Del Gaizo (signed with Montreal, one year, $775K)*
F Grigori Denisenko (signed in KHL)
D Mark Friedman (signed in Sweden)
D Jeremy Lauzon (traded to Vegas)
D Jake Livingstone (unsigned UFA)
F Ondřej Pavel (signed in Finland)
D Luke Prokop (signed with AHL Bakersfield)
F Colton Sissons (traded to Vegas)
F Jakub Vrana (signed in Sweden)
F Jesse Ylonen (signed in Sweden)

*-denotes two-way contract

The good news for Nashville is that not much talent left the organization this summer. However, there is an argument that as much or more talent departed as returned, at least at the NHL level. The Hague trade with Vegas effectively sent away Sissons, who is a defensive bottom-six forward that can contribute a bit offensively and handles tough minutes, as well as Lauzon, a very physical defenseman who doesn’t contribute offensively but isn’t much of a downgrade from Hague.

It’s fair to wonder if Hague and Haula are significant upgrades over Sissons and Lauzon, especially considering Hague and Haula make $9MM a season combined. At the same time, Lauzon and Sissons earn less than $3.5MM together. Adding the extra costs to acquire Hague and Haula results in a confusing set of transactions from Nashville’s point of view.

The remaining departures are mainly tweeners and AHL players who never really figured into Nashville’s future and won’t have much impact. Vrana was a good gamble at the end of last season when Nashville claimed him off waivers; however, he wasn’t a fit, recording two goals and an assist in 13 games. Vrana signed in Sweden this summer, and at 29, it’s unlikely he’ll return to the NHL. The same could probably be said for Friedman, who had a few stints in the NHL but couldn’t stick with Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, or Nashville.

Aside from Sissons and Lauzon, none of the other players who left Nashville received one-way NHL money, which shows just how weak the group was.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Predators have plenty of cap space for the upcoming season, with just over $9.34MM available (according to PuckPedia), and they could add key players to their lineup midseason if they decide. Next summer, they will have around $40MM in cap space and need to address a few RFAs, but they might also make a splash in free agency if they choose to, although this may not be the best move considering general manager Barry Trotz’s recent free agent signings. The Predators aren’t in a bad spot with the cap, but if their pricey veterans perform the way they did this past season, Nashville could be in for a world of cap hurt, as their high-priced veterans have term remaining and would become very difficult to move.

Key Questions

What is Josi’s future?

Josi experienced headaches and fatigue last season and was eventually diagnosed with postural tachycardia syndrome, also known as POTS. Josi is now back at full strength and participating in the Predators’ training camp, optimistic about his future. The 35-year-old is only a year away from being a Norris Trophy finalist and played well last season when healthy. If he can regain his form and stay healthy, it will significantly help the Predators in regaining relevance.

Who will be the top centers?

The Predators’ center depth currently leaves much to be desired, as they lack a true 1C, and will have to rely on Ryan O’Reilly in the top spot by default. Some might suggest Stamkos could fill that role as well, but at this stage of his career, he’s better suited to the wing. O’Reilly would be a better fit as the 2C, but the Predators aren’t in a position to deploy him in a role that matches his skillset. The second-line center spot is still open, but the most likely candidate is Fedor Svechkov, who had a mediocre rookie season last year and is aiming to improve.

Can the offense bounce back?

The Predators’ top offensive players underperformed last season, except for Filip Forsberg. It was a significant decline for Stamkos and Marchessault, and the Predators will count on both players to bounce back and regain some of the scoring they displayed during their free agent walk years two seasons ago. Stamkos, in particular, experienced a sharp drop, going from a point-per-game player with the Lightning to a modest 53 points in 82 games, which is below his usual level. Marchessault’s offensive stats weren’t far off his career averages, but his turnovers were terrible, and he’ll need to improve that if he hopes to re-establish himself.

Photo by Brett Holmes-Imagn Images