The St. Louis Blues made a surprising playoff push this past season, and even more unexpectedly, they pushed the Winnipeg Jets to the very limit in the first round, ultimately losing a Game 7 in overtime after Winnipeg scored in the final second of regulation to tie the game.
It was a heartbreaking end to a season where St. Louis amazed many by putting together a performance strong enough to qualify for the postseason. The Blues achieved this despite having one of the oldest defensive units in the NHL, and many expect St. Louis to retool its defense this summer. The team made several moves last year to bring in new faces, but with Torey Krug’s career over and Nick Leddy in the final year of his contract, the Blues will probably add one or two new defensemen.
On the right side, the Blues have a decent lineup, with Colton Parayko in the top pairing. However, fellow veteran Justin Faulk likely needs to move down the lineup to the bottom pairing, which isn’t ideal given his $6.5MM cap hit for the next two seasons. Faulk’s salary has put St. Louis in a position where they must utilize him higher in the lineup than may be appropriate, considering his capabilities at 33 years of age.
While Faulk remains a decent power-play producer, he hasn’t registered an above-water Corsi or expected goals percentage since the 2019-20 season, his first in St. Louis. Last season, he recorded four goals and 28 assists in 78 games but had a 47 CF% at even strength, which was the second worst among St. Louis defenders. He’s now a third-pair defenseman, suggesting that the Blues need to find a top-four right-shot defenseman.
If that is the case, which it should be, St. Louis will need to line up behind several other teams that also require help on the right side of their defense. There will be options available for those who can play there, but many will come at a steep cost or have significant flaws in their game. Rasmus Andersson is a name that fits the former and is likely to be in play this summer (as per Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet). Andersson would be a great fit with the Blues, but cap space and trade assets could pose an issue.
The Blues have just over $5MM in cap space available for next season; however, Krug’s $6.5MM salary is expected to go onto LTIR, which would open up room to accommodate Andersson’s cap hit. On the draft pick front, the Blues don’t have much to offer in this draft since they only possess their first-round pick, along with their fifth and sixth-round picks. They could explore options beyond this year or tap into their prospect pool, which is a solid group (ranked 14th in the NHL by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic). Given the demand for Andersson, it might require the Blues to part with a top prospect like defenseman Adam Jiricek or forward Dalibor Dvorský.
If the Blues want to trade for a top-four defenseman without heavily investing in their future, Pittsburgh’s Erik Karlsson could be an option. Karlsson’s name often comes up in discussions about right-shot defensemen, but since few are available via trade, he has to be mentioned. While he hasn’t fully fit in with the Penguins, he has still produced his signature offense, contributing little on the defensive end. Nevertheless, he might find a role under head coach Jim Montgomery in St. Louis.
Montgomery values structure and accountability – traits that aren’t exactly Karlsson’s strengths. Still, he could thrive in a modern offensive system that emphasizes controlled zone entries and exits, as well as maintaining puck possession. Montgomery has coached several players to career-best years (like David Pastrňák and Hampus Lindholm), and while it may be less likely for Karlsson, he could help the three-time Norris Trophy winner regain a higher level of play.
Now, St. Louis could also explore free agency to find a suitable fit. They only need two more roster players: a defenseman and a contract for backup netminder Joel Hofer. Even with more than $11MM in cap space, things might get tight with the next target, Aaron Ekblad. There are no guarantees that Ekblad will hit free agency, and if he does, he will be in high demand given his role in back-to-back Stanley Cups in Florida. AFP Analytics projected Ekblad to receive a seven-year contract worth $7.8MM per season. Still, that projection seems relatively low at the moment, considering the robustness of his market.
The Blues might pursue another UFA defenseman, but there’s a significant decline in quality after Ekblad. Dante Fabbro could be the best available option, with a projected four-year deal around $18MM in total, which is quite steep for a defenseman claimed off waivers just seven months ago.
Shifting to the left side, St. Louis is likely set in the top four with Philip Broberg and Cam Fowler contributing. Broberg had a breakout year last season, and Fowler showed notable improvement after being traded to the Blues. The 33-year-old was able to leverage his stretch pass and offensive instincts while minimizing some defensive mistakes that troubled his last few seasons with the Anaheim Ducks. Much of that can be credited to playing for a stronger team, but the Blues’ move to take a chance on Fowler has paid off.
The Blues could improve by finding an upgrade for Leddy. To be fair to the 34-year-old, he missed 49 games last season due to a lower-body injury, but when he played, it was clear his game had declined. Leddy still skates well enough, but he’s no longer the reliable zone exit threat he once was, as his transition game isn’t as strong as it used to be. Defensively, Leddy has never excelled, and his numbers have also fallen recently, making it hard to use him beyond bottom-pairing minutes. The Blues might find better value for the $4MM they are paying him in the final year of his contract and use the savings to strengthen the right side of their defense or upgrade other areas. Trading Leddy won’t be easy, but some teams may still be looking for a puck-moving depth defenceman after the first wave of free agency.
The other significant issue with keeping Leddy is that if the Blues plan to use Faulk on the bottom pairing, Leddy and Faulk might struggle as a duo since neither player excels defensively. This could lead to some challenging nights for the veterans, as neither skill set can effectively support the other. A free agent veteran like Brian Dumoulin, who can offer a steadier defensive game, might align better with what Faulk needs in a partner.
The Blues need some adjustments once again this year, and it’s yet to be seen whether they will make minor tweaks or undertake significant changes. Either way, it’s unlikely that the Blues are done making defensive modifications. If anything has been learned over the past 12 months, it’s that Doug Armstrong will be proactive about making changes and will utilize every tool available to improve his team.
Photo by Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Bad article. Their D was very strong with all the vets. They could very easily have a strong unit with current roster. Would be nice to get younger, but not a necessity.
Revamping the blueline means Improving, When you want to Improve the blueline, Erik Karlsson’s name should never come up.
Kyrou and Faulk for Dobson and Duclair
Pietrangelo would look sharp in a Blues sweater