The Vegas Golden Knights quietly exited the playoffs this year in the second round and didn’t make many waves around the NHL off the ice either. The traditionally flashy franchise has made a habit of making big splashes during summers and trade deadlines, but has been quiet for the last 12 months.
Vegas spent most of the past year re-signing current players to long-term deals, bringing in veteran depth players, and making a few smaller trades. It’s been very un-Vegas-like for a team that routinely acquires the most desirable players available, contrasting sharply with how they built the 2023 Stanley Cup Championship roster.
The Knights also have significant needs; they need help on the wing, preferably a winger with some speed. They are also in desperate need of a right-shot defenseman, as well as a backup goaltender, although that is a lower priority. Given all of that, it certainly feels as though something significant is brewing in Vegas, and this could be another summer where they make some major headlines.
This assumption is based solely on gut instinct and recent history, and it does not account for the complex challenges that Vegas is likely to face if it wants to make significant moves this summer. The Golden Knights have a very weak prospect pipeline and were ranked 22nd in the NHL back in January of this year when Scott Wheeler of The Athletic conducted his rankings. It also does not reflect their salary cap situation, which has them with only $5.615MM in cap space and four players to sign (as per PuckPedia).
Nor does it consider their lack of desirable draft capital, as Vegas will go without their first-round draft pick in the subsequent two NHL Entry Drafts. Therefore, their room for improvement is severely limited, and they are heading towards some leaner years soon, which suggests they will need to go all in very soon. This situation resembles those that long-time contenders have faced before. Both Pittsburgh and Chicago have exhausted their resources in pursuit of multiple Stanley Cups, as has Tampa Bay, which is nearing the end of its window and has been aggressive every year for the past five years.
The Golden Knights have been linked to top free agent forward Mitch Marner in the past, but they would face significant obstacles trying to sign him this summer. Marner earned just under $11MM last season, and it is doubtful he will take a pay cut this summer, which would remove Vegas from the conversation as currently constructed. However, Vegas has always seemed to find a way to get their man, bringing in players like Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, and Noah Hanifin through trades and acquiring Alex Pietrangelo in free agency.
At the time of those transactions, they had room or were able to create space through salary cap maneuvers. With Marner, though, it would be another level of difficulty to fit him under the cap, requiring Vegas to shed multiple contracts and then fill their roster with players making the league minimum. Vegas likes Marner; however, the numbers don’t lie, and signing him would be extremely difficult, not impossible, but very challenging. While they do need a top-six forward, the cost on Marner could prevent Vegas from getting involved.
Vegas could try trading salary cap space to make room for a Marner-type signing. Still, much of their depth is already on reasonable contracts, and they might be sacrificing value by overpaying in free agency. William Karlsson could be a candidate for a trade, as he has two more years remaining on his deal at $5.9MM per season. However, he is an original Golden Knight and has a modified no-trade clause (10-team no-trade list). Trading the 32-year-old would free up cap space but would also create a roster gap that would need to be filled with cheaper depth.
The same logic applies to trading forward Nicolas Roy. Sure, he earns $3MM annually, but his contract offers good value, and trading him would only create another hole that’s hard to fill. Roy has two years remaining on his deal and has scored over 30 points in each of the last four seasons, consistently providing Vegas with value that’s tough to replace.
All of this is to say that Marner is probably not in the cards for Vegas. I would never bet definitively against the Golden Knights, given their track record of pulling rabbits out of their hat, but this one would be their biggest trick yet. However, Vegas could still land a big name through free agency, and that player is Nikolaj Ehlers, who would be a perfect fit for what Vegas needs on the wing.
Ehlers still has good speed and high hockey IQ, which would fit in nicely with the Golden Knights’ forward group. Ehlers is likely gone from Winnipeg, but his market will be robust, which could take Vegas out of the running unless they can find a way to move out some salary.
So, how exactly could the Golden Knights move out some salary? Well, there is only one actual seller on the market right now, and that appears to be the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, you might ask, why would the Penguins take on salary from Vegas? The answer is simple: they’ve done it before on multiple occasions.
The issue for Vegas is that they don’t really have any terrible contracts on their roster, and certainly none that they would pay a team like Pittsburgh to take off their hands. Vegas could move any contract on their books if they wanted to, and might have to make that difficult decision if they’re going to make changes.
Now, looping back to Pittsburgh, the Penguins have been linked to Vegas defenseman Nicolas Hague, who is an RFA and is projected to earn $2.6MM on a two-year deal this summer (per AFP Analytics). His salary isn’t included in Vegas’s salary cap projections at this point, so simply trading Hague doesn’t resolve the Golden Knights’ cap issue for next year.
However, Hague could be moved for an asset or two, which could then be used in a bigger deal. Alternatively, suppose Vegas is looking for a right-shot defenceman. In that case, they might consider Penguins veteran Erik Karlsson, who is definitely on the trade block this summer and could come relatively cheaply for the Golden Knights, with his salary retained by the Penguins.
Shayna Goldman of The Athletic recently wrote about Karlsson, loosely linking the defenseman to the Golden Knights and citing the situation surrounding Vegas defenseman Pietrangelo and his injury. It is not yet known whether the Golden Knights will place the 35-year-old on LTIR, which would significantly alter the direction of their summer spending.
All of these options are likely on the table for Vegas, which can’t be happy with its early playoff exit and needs a bit of a facelift as it nears the end of its contention window.
Photo by Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Roulette table.