Assessing The Stars’ Contention Timeline
The Stars start the 2025-26 season as one of the top Stanley Cup contenders, featuring a strong core that still includes Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen, and Mikko Rantanen. This group has several top scorers in their prime and a goaltender ready to lead the crease for years to come. The Stars faced significant salary cap pressures this summer but mostly managed to navigate them, re-signing their key UFAs for another push. Although this summer went pretty well, salary cap concerns will likely continue to pose challenges each year, raising the question: How much longer can the Stars remain contenders for the Stanley Cup?
This year will be interesting for the Stars as they manage injuries and call-ups, given they have just over $400K in salary cap space (per PuckPedia). However, next summer, they will have nearly $28MM available with 15 players already signed. That figure suggests an opportunity for Dallas to strengthen their lineup, but a closer look at its RFAs and potential issues begins to emerge. Forwards Robertson and Mavrik Bourque are RFAs, as are Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist on defense. Jamie Benn is a UFA, but that shouldn’t be a significant salary to absorb even if he remains productive.
Robertson’s contract could be the most important extension for the team if he signs with Dallas at all. The 26-year-old was linked to trade rumors this summer, and since he’s only two years away from becoming a UFA, Dallas faces a tough choice. Evolving Hockey estimates that if Robertson had been an RFA this summer, his market value with the Stars would be an eight-year deal worth $10.9MM annually. If he signs with another team, that drops to $10.5MM over seven years. AFP Analytics is even more ambitious with its estimate, projecting an $11.54MM AAV on a long-term deal. There’s a chance Robertson might have a tough season, which could lower his value. But it could also go the other way, raising it. Last year, Robertson scored 35 goals and 80 points in 82 games, but he’s only two years removed from a 109-point season and will be eager to reach those offensive numbers again. If he does, that $28MM in cap space next summer will quickly seem very small.
Now, aside from Robertson, the other significant looming extension is Harley’s, and it could surpass Robertson’s depending on each player’s season. AFP Analytics projects an eight-year deal at $10.75MM annually if Harley commits long-term, which would put Dallas at around $21MM for both players, roughly $7MM under the 2026-27 salary cap, assuming no other moves are made before then.
Here’s more bad news if you’re a Stars fan. Besides being capped out, there isn’t much help coming through prospects. Dallas’s system is ranked 31st in the NHL by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic after Bourque and Logan Stankoven moved up to the NHL (with Stankoven then being dealt to the Hurricanes). It’s a 10-place drop for the Stars, highlighting a significant problem in their Stanley Cup pursuit—they’ve traded away many picks and prospects. That’s okay when you’re a contender; in fact, you should do that. But you can’t keep doing it forever, and sooner or later, you run out of pieces in the cupboard. That’s precisely what has happened to Dallas.
Now, for the final bit of bad news. Dallas also lacks significant draft pick capital. They have no first-round pick in 2026 or 2028 and are missing their second-rounder in 2028 (per PuckPedia). Again, it’s not a huge deal if you win, but as you get closer to the final stages of your contention window, it becomes tougher to compete without the tools to improve your team.
A year from now, this could all be something to look back on and laugh if Dallas wins the 2026 Stanley Cup. However, if they don’t, the Stars may start to resemble another team from the past, one with a wealth of offensive stars and solid goaltending. Some might feel it’s too soon in Dallas’s journey to say this, and maybe it is. But if the Stars aren’t successful this season in their quest for a championship, they could dangerously mirror the San Jose Sharks from the 2000s and 2010s — a team that could win a round or two regularly, had plenty of offensive talent, but couldn’t seal the deal, leading to a painful rebuild that they are hoping to soon emerge from.
Despite the negative tone of the article, the Stars aren’t finished yet and should be able to compete for the next two to three years while their core remains in their prime. The favourable tax situation, along with great weather and a terrific team, should continue to attract free agents willing to accept less money than they might elsewhere, and could also motivate some of the Stars’ current players to take a pay cut to stay on a competitive team in Dallas.
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What Can The Penguins Do With Their Other Veteran Forwards?
The Penguins have a few productive forwards they might trade in the coming months. Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell both had excellent seasons last year playing alongside Sidney Crosby, and the Penguins probably want to sell high on them. They haven’t been able to do so yet, though, and the Pens have several veteran forwards they definitely want to move — Kevin Hayes, Noel Acciari, and Danton Heinen. But can they even move three players who don’t seem to be part of their future and might not be good enough to contribute now?
To be fair to Hayes, Acciari, and Heinen, the Penguins are unexpectedly deep at forward as they begin training camp. Pittsburgh has about 20 forwards who could make the lineup out of training camp, which makes things tricky for the trio of veterans. The team has promised to go with a younger roster this year, and while they’d likely prefer to move those three along with Rust and Rakell, they can’t trade everyone. It’s unlikely they can move Hayes, Acciari, and Heinen at all – even as pending UFAs.
Hayes was acquired last summer from the Blues along with a second-round pick in what was clearly a salary dump. Hayes remains a useful player in a limited role, but he doesn’t skate well, doesn’t hit, and lacks the puck skills he had in his prime. It also doesn’t help that he was injured at the beginning of training camp and will miss some time.
He could be moved in a deadline trade to a team looking for a depth veteran, but for now, the Penguins need to find a role for him when he returns. Hayes is set to count over $3.57MM against the Pittsburgh cap in the final year of a seven-year, $50MM contract he signed with the Flyers in the summer of 2019. Still, he is the least likely of the three to be moved off the roster because of his versatility. Hayes still has value on the power play and can contribute some offense to the bottom six if he manages to find a role among all the young players competing for an NHL spot.
Acciari was the most physical of the Penguins’ forwards last season, which doesn’t say much considering that Pittsburgh has been a light-hitting team for years. He also led the Penguins forwards in blocks. Acciari plays hard and is a team-first guy who serves as a good leader for some of the younger forwards seeking bottom-six minutes. Acciari is a solid pro and provides Pittsburgh with depth at center, but if some of the team’s prospects have strong camps, he could be left behind.
Then there’s Heinen, who was a throw-in last year when the Penguins traded defenseman Marcus Pettersson to the Vancouver Canucks. Heinen and his $2.25MM salary were included in the deal mainly to make the money work from Vancouver’s side. Heinen is an NHL player capable of playing across the lineup, but he doesn’t produce much with the ice time he receives, though he’s a decent forechecker and can kill penalties. At 30, Heinen isn’t expected to be part of Pittsburgh’s future, but if he makes the team and chips in some depth points, he could become a trade candidate at the deadline. That’s probably the best-case scenario for Heinen and the Penguins, as he’s the most likely of the trio of veterans to be waived and sent down to the AHL.
There is another option the Penguins can consider, which largely depends on what happens with Rust and Rakell. If the Penguins trade either of them for future assets, they could retain Heinen, Hayes, and Acciari and assign them to roles that best match their skills. All three are unrestricted free agents at the end of the season, and if Pittsburgh truly plans to rebuild, as they claim, it would be wise to boost the value of these veterans to trade them at the Trade Deadline for better assets. In the worst case, if they perform poorly and Pittsburgh can’t move them, they could let them all leave through free agency, move forward next season, and use nearly $8MM in freed-up cap space to sign other players.
In any case, that last option only makes sense if the Penguins trade Rust, Rakell, or both. Otherwise, the Penguins should simply put their best 12 or 13 forwards on the ice and healthy scratch or waive the rest, even if they are overpriced veterans with versatility still in their game.
Pittsburgh is an oddly constructed team, as they are rebuilding and want to go young, yet they remain the oldest team in the NHL. They probably will be bad, but have some good veterans and some promising youngsters. As Josh Yohe of The Athletic often says, “The Penguins are never boring,” and they certainly won’t be this season.
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Who Will Be The NHL’s First $20MM Player?
After Kirill Kaprizov reportedly declined an offer of $16MM a season on a long-term deal, fans across the NHL discussed who would be the first player in NHL history to earn $20MM annually on a contract. The NHL’s revenue is increasing rapidly, thanks to rising television income, betting revenue, and overall global expansion, all pushing hockey-related revenue higher. With this growth, teams are more than willing to pay their star players, who drive much of the growth teams are seeing in local ticket sales, sponsorships, and, most importantly, the game on the ice.
With rising revenues, fans are curious about what kind of AAV Connor McDavid could secure if he chooses to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. McDavid will be a free agent on July 1st next year, although he might not be the first to reach that milestone, even though he will be eligible to sign a deal exceeding that figure.
With the NHL salary cap rising to $104MM for the 2026-27 season, McDavid could sign a deal worth 20% of the total cap, which would amount to $20.8MM annually. However, based on his previous contract, it seems unlikely McDavid would do that, as it would leave the Oilers even more constrained by the cap than they already are. Earlier this summer, it was reported that McDavid would sign an extension of unspecified length, with an AAV of around $16MM. This would be similar to McDavid’s previous extension, signed in 2017 for $12.5MM per season, which was 15.72% of the salary cap at that time. If that $16MM AAV applies to McDavid’s next contract, it would represent roughly the same percentage of the salary cap ceiling as his 2017 extension.
Some folks in hockey circles argue that McDavid should be the first player to surpass the $20MM mark, and they might be right. However, it would be tough to build a team if he consumes that much of the salary cap. People used to argue the same whenever Sidney Crosby accepted less money than he was worth, but Crosby’s three Stanley Cup wins likely justified the money he left on the table. McDavid is an interesting case because he already left money on the table last time and has no championships to show for it. He may be willing to do it again as he nears his 30s, knowing that many of the game’s greatest players—like Crosby, Mario Lemieux, Wayne Gretzky, and Jaromir Jagr—never won a Stanley Cup after turning 30. McDavid may not be able to carry flawed teams to the Stanley Cup Finals if he’s in his 30s and taking up 20% of the salary cap, and that will have to influence his decision on his next contract.
The next batch of potential $20MM players expected to hit the free agent market next July includes the aforementioned McDavid & Kaprizov, as well as Jack Eichel. This occurs during a period when the NHL salary cap is set to rise by nearly 30% over three years. While this is excellent news for these forwards, it likely won’t come with a $20MM AAV. Kaprizov is reportedly trying to get as close as possible to that figure after rejecting a long-term deal worth $16MM per season. Although high, that number is expected to become typical among the NHL’s top players, with many stars poised to sign deals above $15MM annually.
Eichel has developed into a top-line, two-way center with high-end offensive skills but also elite defensive metrics. He is the most complete player outside of McDavid who could be available next summer, but it is expected that he will sign a long-term extension in Vegas soon, which should be around $13MM-$14MM annually.
What about the summer of 2027? Are there any potential candidates to earn $20MM annually? The short answer is one, possibly two: Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar and Vancouver Canucks defender Quinn Hughes. Makar has been a Norris Trophy finalist for five consecutive seasons and is a two-time winner of the award. He has exceeded 80 points in three of his last four seasons and 90 points in each of the previous two seasons. He is an offensive powerhouse that any team in the league would want, and with a $113.5MM salary cap forecast for the 2027-28 season, he might receive a $20MM offer.
Hughes is also a former Norris Trophy winner, securing the award during the 2023-24 season. He was a finalist last season but doesn’t have the same résumé as Makar and is therefore less likely than him to reach the $20MM mark. Two more seasons of Norris-calibre play would go a long way toward securing that kind of money on a long-term deal, but at this stage, he would be a bit of a long shot to hit $20MM annually.
Auston Matthews is another possible candidate to be the first player to earn $20MM annually, but he faces several hurdles. For one, someone might have signed an extension before Matthews became a free agent. Additionally, Matthews will be 31 when his next contract begins, and it’s uncertain what his game will look like then. There’s also a chance that Matthews’ performance could decline in the coming years, and he may not be able to produce the same numbers he’s used to. Time is working against Matthews in this scenario, and given all of this, he’s probably not going to be the first player to reach $20MM annually.
Finally, some of the top young draft picks have entered the NHL. Connor Bedard is a year away from becoming an RFA, and his performance this upcoming season could reveal a lot about the extension he signs, if he doesn’t sign one before the season begins. If he signs now, he’d likely secure a deal around $10MM annually. However, if he erupts into a 100+ point player, as many expect, he might push closer to a $12MM to $15MM long-term deal. In any case, he isn’t going to sign for $20MM this time, and even if he takes a two- or three-year bridge deal, he probably won’t be the first player to hit that $20MM milestone.
Now that we’ve discussed some of the players who could be the first, we must consider whether it will happen anytime soon. The NHL has a culture of spreading money across the roster, and few teams are willing to go top-heavy because it affects their depth. The Toronto Maple Leafs tried the top-heavy approach for the past decade, and it hasn’t worked out as they hoped. Even Chicago had to adopt it eventually, with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews earning $10.5MM annually, marking the start of the end for their mini-dynasty. Teams are also reluctant to allocate 20% of their salary cap to a single player, which suggests we might need a much higher cap before a player reaches $20MM annually.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how this develops. The NHL has never fully embraced the supermax era that other leagues have adopted, and NHL players have seldom sought the maximum salary for various reasons. The NHL was also uniquely positioned because its top star for 20 years, Crosby, never signed a market-value contract, which makes one wonder if that influenced other stars to accept lower numbers. Crosby is obviously nearing the end of his career and is no longer the top player in the league, opening the door for top talents to claim every dollar they can get. Time will tell if they do.
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The Risk And Reward Of Signing Evgeny Kuznetsov
In each NHL offseason, certain players hit the free agent market, sparking debate about the risks and rewards of signing them. The potential rewards often outweigh the risks, and these players usually find opportunities in the NHL, but some do fall by the wayside. This summer, a few names fit the bill, including former Washington Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov, who is reportedly looking to return to an NHL lineup after playing in the KHL last year.
Kuznetsov can best be described as a reclamation project at this point in his career. The 33-year-old is highly talented and has posted strong results in the NHL throughout his career; however, he has often been inconsistent, which is precisely why he finds himself in the current position he is in a few weeks before NHL training camps are set to open. As for the risks and rewards of signing Kuznetsov, they look like this.
We’ll start with the reward side of the argument. Kuznetsov has an elite skill set; he has terrific hands (evidenced by his slow-motion shootout goals), is an excellent playmaker, and could pass with the best of them during his prime. These skills alone would make almost any player desirable, and they are the reason that Kuznetsov stayed in the NHL for as long as he did despite the warts in his game. Kuznetsov had 25 assists in 39 KHL games last season, which demonstrates that he still possesses a playmaking vision and could be a valuable part of a team’s top-nine forward group if placed in the right environment.
The next positive aspect of signing Kuznetsov is that he has been excellent in the Stanley Cup playoffs throughout his career. He was a key part of Washington’s 2018 Stanley Cup Championship, leading the playoffs in points that season. Even his most recent NHL postseason saw him perform well, with four goals and two assists in 10 games, which ultimately was his last appearance in an NHL lineup. Kuznetsov has shown in the past that he can elevate his game when the stakes are highest, which could be a factor teams consider when deciding whether to sign him.
Then there’s the cost, which will be almost nothing. In real dollar terms, the NHL league minimum of $775K is significant; however, that’s the bare minimum Kuznetsov can earn in the NHL and likely what he will get when he finally signs (if he secures a one-way NHL deal). Teams will be interested in a player they can acquire without giving up an asset (other than cap space), and even if things go south for Kuznetsov, he could easily be waived and sent to the minors with his entire cap hit buried or perhaps agree to a mutual termination if things don’t work out. Either way, it would cost almost nothing to sign him and could reward a team with a valuable player at a low cost.
Lastly, on the reward side, there is the potential that a change of scenery move could unlock. Many players in NHL history have struggled with one team, then moved to a new market and rediscovered their game. This can happen for many reasons, but ultimately, one of the main reasons these moves are successful is if the player is motivated to revive their career. For Kuznetsov, the team that signs him will likely be giving him his last NHL shot, which means the stakes are high for him, and he should have plenty of motivation to give his best effort. It also means that whatever team signs Kuznetsov, they could see a significant return on a player who is a relatively small gamble.
Let’s examine the risks now associated with signing a player like Kuznetsov. Firstly, his production has fallen sharply in recent seasons, dropping to a near career-low 24 points in 63 games during the 2023-24 season. It wasn’t just the offense that dried up; it was Kuznetsov’s overall impact in his final two NHL seasons. Kuznetsov was never considered an analytical darling, but he became one of the most negative impact play-drivers in the NHL during those last two seasons. This decline in offensive output highlighted Kuznetsov’s overall game, which was never exceptional but was mainly hidden by his scoring.
Next up on the risk side is Kuznetsov’s tendency to be streaky. Some might call it apathy or being disengaged, but the fact is that any NHL team that hopes to win a Stanley Cup doesn’t want to bring in a passenger who plays when he feels like it. That’s not to say that is what Kuznetsov will do, but that is a reputation he does have, and teams will be looking for players who buy in and display a strong work ethic.
The reality of Kuznetsov’s age also comes into play, as there’s no way to sugarcoat the truth about hockey players on the wrong side of 30. Skills tend to decline, especially conditioning and speed, which usually drop faster than a player’s ability to control the puck. The concerning part for Kuznetsov is that managing the puck was one of the few things he did well in 2023-24, but with his lack of speed, his CF% took a nosedive, dropping to just 47% in that season.
Finally, there is the locker room fit. Teams are always concerned about bringing in a personality that doesn’t align with the team’s culture, and Kuznetsov could be a potential mismatch. Creating additional off-ice distractions is never ideal for NHL teams, which is why players like Phil Kessel and Calvin de Haan often see their final runs through free agency end in disappointment. An off-ice distraction will generally be tolerated if a player is performing at a high level. Still, as soon as their results slip, off-ice issues tend to be addressed more seriously.
In the end, whichever NHL team signs Kuznetsov (if any do) will get a player on a cheap league minimum contract, who has some potential to make an offensive impact and could produce some decent point totals. Alternatively, they might get a player who is inconsistent, unmotivated, and taking up a roster spot from someone else. Either way, Kuznetsov will be an intriguing player to watch in the near future.
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What The Senators Can Learn From Past Champions’ Development Model
The Senators qualified for the playoffs last season for the first time since the 2016-17 season. Their young core finally turned the corner and took their first significant step in a rebuild that previously felt like it was skidding off the tracks. They lost to the Maple Leafs in six games, but it has generated a sense of optimism in Canada’s capital. Ottawa has a promising young core led by captain Brady Tkachuk, most of the group is signed to reasonable long-term deals, the new ownership group is stable, and the team is inching closer to securing a new downtown arena. Everything looks promising for the Senators right now, but they are about to face the most challenging phase of their rebuild as they aim to make the next leap and become a Stanley Cup contender. The Senators have made several missteps along the way, and they would do well to learn from franchises that have already achieved what Ottawa is striving for.
There are many lessons the Senators can learn from the teams that achieved success, and the same applies to those that failed in their rebuilds. When it comes to success stories, look no further than the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and their intrastate rival Tampa Bay Lightning, who have accounted for four of the last six champions, as well as the Colorado Avalanche, who won the title in 2022, and the Pittsburgh Penguins, the first team in the salary cap era to win back-to-back Stanley Cups. All of these teams had promising cores before winning titles, and they all faced heartbreaking moments on their way to glory. While their stories share similar elements, each franchise had a different blueprint for building Stanley Cup-caliber rosters, and these are frameworks Ottawa could consider as it aims to take the next step.
Regarding a comparison between Ottawa’s roster and those four mentioned clubs, there is one main difference. Ottawa has secured its young core of top picks long-term (Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot), just as Pittsburgh, Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Florida have. Some might dismiss this comparison, arguing that Ottawa doesn’t share the same reputation as those teams. However, it wasn’t that long ago that Florida was considered an afterthought, and both Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay faced challenges at the bottom of the standings before they built their teams around top picks.
What Ottawa can examine is how those four teams built their championship squads without relying solely on making top draft picks. Each team clearly demonstrates the importance of selecting the top picks correctly, but beyond that, they each employed a unique strategy to develop their rosters around those key players.
For Tampa Bay, its elite scouting allowed it to draft top players outside of the first round. The Lightning selected Brayden Point in the third round in 2014, Nikita Kucherov in the second round in 2011, and Anthony Cirelli in the third round in 2015. These players supported top picks Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman and helped propel Tampa Bay to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and two championships. Former Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman adopted a tactic from the 1990s Detroit Red Wings teams by delaying the development of their prospects, choosing to let them develop longer in the AHL rather than rushing them to the NHL.
Florida didn’t draft as well as the Lightning but chose instead to rely on trades to build around their top picks, bringing in Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Sam Reinhart in major moves that strengthened Aaron Ekblad and Aleksander Barkov. The Tkachuk trade, in particular, was a significant gamble by general manager Bill Zito, and it was not well-received at the time it was made. However, it’s been a crucial move for Florida, and it ended up being the one that truly pushed them over the line. The Panthers also used free agency and waivers to bolster their team, signing Carter Verhaeghe and Sergei Bobrovsky as UFAs and acquiring Gustav Forsling off waivers. The Bobrovsky signing was widely criticized when it happened, but it has again panned out as a gamble worth taking.
The Penguins, much like the Panthers, used a variety of tools to build their championship rosters after years of poor drafting, bad trades, and signings for depth. By the time Jim Rutherford took over the Penguins in 2014, most people felt that Pittsburgh had wasted the primes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, and in 2015, another first-round exit made many believe the critics were right. The Penguins only had one championship with their core, and calls from fans were to trade Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang. However, Rutherford chose a different path, bringing in star scoring winger Phil Kessel in a significant trade with the Maple Leafs that could have ended in disaster. However, it didn’t, and Rutherford continued to make moves, adding forwards Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin, as well as defensemen Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz. These moves, along with some strong late picks from former GM Ray Shero (Bryan Rust and Matt Murray), set the Penguins up for a two-year run of excellence.
All of these stories raise several questions for the Senators. When is the right time to be patient versus aggressive? When should they be ruthless or show loyalty? There is no single way to succeed, but all of Colorado, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Florida have identified a clear vision and are committed to it. Tampa Bay was patient and spent a decade building the foundation for an incredible run of success. Colorado was patient as well, choosing to wait for the right moment to make trades that would boost their stars (Devon Toews).
Pittsburgh and Florida, on the other hand, were proactive in their effort to win now. There were no half measures. Rutherford would quickly correct a mistake in roster assessment for the Penguins if he felt it wasn’t a fit. By the end of his tenure, that kind of behaviour became comical, but between 2015 and 2017, it was like lightning in a bottle.
For Florida, Zito and his team have been aggressive yet precise, acquiring players who have struggled elsewhere and fitting them into the Panthers’ lineup where they can succeed. Forsling and Verhague were both traded between several teams before ending up in Florida. Now, they are vital pieces of a potential dynasty.
Ottawa is at a crossroads and must decide on its next step. Should they be patient with their prospects in Belleville, or is that not the best approach given their weak farm system? This could mean trading young players and draft picks to secure immediate help. Does GM Steve Staios have the courage for a bold move? It’s possible, especially since he recently traded Josh Norris for Dylan Cozens at the NHL Trade Deadline, but he needs to be careful not to compromise too much of the team’s identity.
Ottawa also needs to improve the depth of its lineup. Their bottom six haven’t been strong for a while, and there’s a lesson to learn from the teams that win titles. Florida’s bottom six is built for speed and toughness. Tampa Bay would find depth that’s tailored for the playoffs, while the Penguins’ teams rolled four lines with speed that could dominate teams through an aggressive forecheck on every shift.
While the Senators need to improve their team depth, they must be careful with their spending in free agency, as many of their recent signings have not worked out. The David Perron signing last summer wasn’t successful (two years, $8MM), nor was the Joonas Korpisalo signing the previous summer. The Senators haven’t had much success with UFAs and need to be cautious with their secondary deals, as they will eventually need to sign Shane Pinto and avoid limiting their flexibility, which could quickly close their window to contend.
Ultimately, Ottawa doesn’t need to follow any single path listed above. The Senators can combine elements from each team’s approach and adapt them to their own journey. They can emulate Tampa Bay’s patience in development, while reflecting Pittsburgh’s commitment to their core identity and pursuing bold, fearless trades like the Panthers. There are many routes the Senators could take as they aim to progress, but the key will be committing to a clear strategy rather than just relying on talent to develop and improve naturally over time.
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Which Defensemen Should The Red Wings Target?
The Detroit Red Wings haven’t reached the playoffs in nearly ten years and are at a pivotal point after a season of highs and lows last year. They remained relatively quiet this summer, but they did address some goaltending concerns by adding John Gibson. While he is expected to bring more stability in goal, Detroit still needs to strengthen other areas, especially defensively, where its core could benefit from an upgrade.
Ideally, the Red Wings would have already acquired a right-shot defenseman capable of playing in their top four and logging significant minutes while generating offense from the back end. Detroit already has Moritz Seider on the right side, but adding a veteran with some playoff experience could help their inexperienced star while adding a bit of leadership to a team that hasn’t experienced regular-season success in years. Detroit needs to balance veteran stability with the potential of its young players without blocking any of their development pathways. This challenging balancing act will affect all of the Red Wings’ future decisions and may have already influenced them this summer, as Detroit stayed relatively quiet.
Detroit did add a right-shot defender this summer by signing Jacob Bernard-Docker to a one-year deal worth $875K. Bernard-Docker was a first-round pick of the Ottawa Senators (chosen 26th overall in 2018), but he hasn’t yet proven himself as a regular NHL player. He isn’t the answer to Detroit’s top four concerns on the right side, and if he is put there, the team’s defense could run into serious problems next season. There’s nothing inherently wrong with using a player with Bernard-Docker’s skill set, but he isn’t what Detroit needs for their top two pairings.
The same can be said for another right-shot defender Detroit signed this summer, Travis Hamonic. At 35 years old, he didn’t look like an NHL defenseman last season and was a drag on anyone he paired with. Still, his signing shows Detroit’s desperation to add depth on their right side, which might be a futile effort at this point, considering they have a lot of below-replacement-level talent in the pipeline.
Unfortunately for them, an impact right-shot defender is one of the most complex player types to acquire in today’s NHL. Each year, teams overpay for righties – a pertinent case study being someone like Matt Dumba, who earned $7.5MM last summer on a two-year deal only to be traded away this summer with a sweetener.
Detroit has nearly $12MM in cap space available for the upcoming season, per PuckPedia. They also possess almost a full slate of draft picks for the next three seasons, except for their 2027 second-rounder, along with a top-five prospect pool, according to Scott Wheeler of The Athletic. They could easily target a player like Rasmus Andersson of the Calgary Flames, who is a realistic option and would provide the Red Wings with a smooth puck mover that could add a dynamic element to their defense.
Such a move involves significant risk, chiefly concerning Andersson’s contract situation. The 28-year-old has one year remaining on his deal and might be interested in exploring free agency. The Red Wings would likely want to negotiate an extension before completing a trade, which also carries risks given that Andersson is coming off a trying 2024-25 campaign in his own end and may not even want to entertain a long-term commitment to a team that’s not a surefire contender. While Andersson won’t suddenly turn Detroit into a Stanley Cup challenger, he could support their efforts to return to the playoffs.
If the Wings wanted to scout emerging talents, they could consider Brandt Clarke of the Los Angeles Kings or Bowen Byram of the Buffalo Sabres. It’s challenging to see Buffalo trading Byram within their division, but stranger things have happened. The perception of Byram is much more favorable than his on-ice impact. In other words, he has all the qualities you’d want in a top-four defenseman, but his actual results don’t match that. Byram has found it challenging to drive play independently, and given his market value, acquiring him might not be the best move for the Red Wings. Byram signed a two-year extension this summer at $6.5MM per season and will likely demand a higher price on a long-term deal, considering how he is perceived league-wide.
Clarke presents an interesting option, especially if he is to be acquired to bolster the top four. The 22-year-old was drafted eighth overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and had a solid offensive season last year, with five goals and 28 assists in 78 games. While those stats are respectable for a player logging just over 16 minutes per night, they don’t tell the whole story. Clarke was a healthy scratch a few times last season and was heavily sheltered by the Kings. There’s no doubt about Clarke’s offensive talent, but his defensive play is definitely a concern. If Detroit were to acquire him and pair him with Simon Edvinsson, it could greatly benefit Clarke. However, that would mean pairing Ben Chiarot with Seider on the top pairing, which should be avoided. Putting Chiarot and Clarke together would likely be disastrous, exposing the challenges Detroit faces with its defensive core.
And then there’s Erik Karlsson of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who is very much available but would need to waive his no-move clause to be traded anywhere. Karlsson has been linked to the Red Wings recently, but it’s hard to gauge if he would want to move to the Motor City. However, he would bring offense to Detroit’s defense and could help ignite the attack.
But, with acquiring Karlsson, Detroit would face similar issues with Chiarot or Edvinsson. Bringing in Karlsson would make headlines, but it wouldn’t elevate Detroit into the top tier of NHL teams. Karlsson remains a household name and has a certain cachet, but he isn’t the three-time Norris Trophy winner he once was and is unlikely to revert to that peak of performance. He would improve Detroit’s scoring, potentially moving its offense towards the middle of the league. Still, the cost and the defensive issues caused by Karlsson’s aggressive style might outweigh the benefits, especially on a team with no high-end shutdown talent.
Finally, if Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman wants to focus on a defensive player, he could consider Connor Murphy of the Chicago Blackhawks. The 32-year-old offers little offensively, never surpassing 20 points in a season, but he plays a solid defensive game and could help stabilize a second pairing. Murphy isn’t going to generate plays, but he can handle tough matchups, block shots, and is generally effective in his own zone. His skill set might not be exactly what the Red Wings need on their backend, but they could do worse than him on the trade market.
None of these moves guarantees a win for Detroit, and each one involves considerable risk, but so does every trade. After missing the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons and having a cautious summer, Detroit may need to take a bold step to move forward. Of course, GM Steve Yzerman must weigh the cost of trading prospects or draft picks against the immediate benefits of boosting his defense. Whatever Yzerman decides, his next moves could shape the team’s future for years. He has options, but none are particularly ideal.
Photo by Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Assessing The Mammoth’s Path To The Playoffs
The Utah Mammoth had an eventful second summer in their NHL journey, making significant progress to position the team as a playoff contender. General manager Bill Armstrong made minor adjustments last summer, but this summer he took a bold step. He balanced that gamble with well-planned extensions and depth moves, demonstrating a clear plan to follow. Armstrong and the Mammoth seem ready to build around their talented young core by adding experienced veterans, aiming for long-term success.
The Mammoth made a statement in late June by acquiring JJ Peterka from the Buffalo Sabres and signing him to a five-year, $38.5MM extension. Armstrong and his team paid a fair price for the young forward, but they are confident that Peterka’s skill, speed, and two-way play will make him a good fit alongside Utah’s promising forward core, which includes Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, and Clayton Keller. The move to acquire Peterka demonstrated to Mammoth fans that the team is aiming to contend sooner rather than later in the Western Conference.
At 23 years of age, and coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons, Buffalo was never going to let Peterka go cheap, especially given the intangibles he brings to couple with the offense he produces. Peterka is not only relentless on the forecheck, but he can tilt the ice for the Mammoth along with their other top young forwards. The $ 7.7MM AAV is pretty reasonable for what Peterka can produce going forward, but Utah will be happy to pay it, given that he could be a bargain over the next few seasons.
Shortly after finalizing the Peterka deal, the Mammoth executed another trade involving a young player, this time sending Matias Maccelli to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a conditional third-round pick in 2027. The trade is a risk for both teams, as Maccelli is only a year removed from scoring 57 points in 82 games. However, he managed just 18 points this past season in 55 games, as his offense dipped significantly, and Toronto hopes he can rebound to fill the gap left when Mitch Marner departed. Maccelli could regain his form in Toronto, and if he does, it may appear to be a costly miss for Utah. But if his stats are similar to last season, it will have been a practical move to shed a smaller player who doesn’t play much of a physical game, and the outcome of this trade remains uncertain.
Utah might have missed the playoffs last season, but that didn’t stop them from re-signing many of their pending free agents, including forward Alex Kerfoot and defensemen Ian Cole and Olli Määttä. Utah also signed goaltender Karel Vejmelka and centre Jack McBain to five-year contract extensions. McBain’s deal provides the Mammoth with some cost certainty on a physical centre who is a good forechecker and can handle tough matchups. He won’t score many goals and isn’t overly talented with the puck, but Utah believed his other qualities justified the $21.25MM over five years.
Vejmelka’s NHL stats aren’t anything extraordinary. He has maintained a .899 SV% over his career and has a record of 70-97-19 with a 3.22 goals-against average. However, last season, the 29-year-old recorded 14.2 goals saved above expected in 58 games (as per MoneyPuck). Vejmelka isn’t among the top goaltenders in the league, but should give the Mammoth league-average goaltending (or better) for a very reasonable $4.75MM per season. Considering that Vancouver re-signed the perfectly average Kevin Lankinen to a five-year deal at $4.5MM annually, Utah secured a solid agreement for Vejmelka.
The Mammoth also addressed their goaltending depth this summer by signing Vitek Vaneček to a one-year contract worth $ 1.5MM. Vaneček recently won a Stanley Cup as a backup for the Florida Panthers and should give the Mammoth a reliable veteran presence behind Vejmelka. Stability in goal for Utah will be essential this season as they aim to climb the standings into a playoff spot. The 29-year-old is coming off two inconsistent seasons and hopes to re-establish himself with the Mammoth this year. His numbers with San Jose and Florida last season weren’t impressive, but despite the recent lack of success, Vaneček is only two years removed from posting a .911 save % in 52 games with New Jersey.
The Mammoth are still in the early stages of establishing themselves in Utah, but are trending in the right direction by being cautious with their depth players and aggressive in adding to their top six. Looking at the bigger picture, Utah has made significant progress over the past year and should be in the playoff hunt this season. Some might see their summer moves as patchwork or a mixed bag, but they clearly identified a need at forward and were pleased with what they saw in their veteran defensemen.
Utah has plenty of potential star power at the top of their lineup, has stabilized the middle of the ice, boasts a lot of experience on their blueline, and should receive decent goaltending this season. I wouldn’t call the team a Stanley Cup contender, but with some internal improvement and average goaltending, they will be in the thick of the Western Conference playoff picture.
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Can Kris Letang Rediscover His Game?
Kris Letang has been a polarizing figure amongst Penguins fans since breaking into the NHL in October of 2006. Now, Letang wouldn’t become a full-time NHLer until the following season and didn’t become a number one defenseman until the 2010-11 season. But since that time, he has held on firmly to a spot on the right side of the Penguins’ top defensive pairing, and that role has never been in doubt until the 2023-24 season, when Erik Karlsson arrived via trade. Now, the questions surrounding Letang’s role on the top unit have less to do with Karlsson’s arrival and more to do with the fact that Letang’s game has slipped in recent seasons, and it is fair to ask if he should be on the Penguins’ first defensive unit.
Letang’s 2024-25 performance was below his career norms, as he scored just nine goals and 21 assists in 74 games. His -15 plus/minus was a significant drop from the previous year, along with the 100 turnovers he committed, marking the first time he reached triple digits in that category. The 100 turnovers are a glaring problem and highlight a significant issue for Letang, as his once-elite skating seemed to falter last season. He wasn’t able to create the space he was used to and often found himself carrying the puck under pressure more than in previous years. Throughout his career, Letang has been prone to defensive lapses, even at his peak. He also has a history of making questionable decisions with the puck, which has become even more evident now that his decision-making window has narrowed due to his difficulty in creating space for himself.
Now, that aging curve is undefeated, and it’s unfair to expect Letang to defy his age forever. However, his decline in play might not have been solely due to age, as the Montreal, Quebec native faced several health issues once again last season. Letang has battled a wild amount of injuries and health conditions throughout his NHL career, and he underwent heart surgery in mid-April to close a small hole in his heart that had previously caused strokes. Letang is expected to recover in time to start the upcoming season, and it is hoped that he will be fully healthy by then.
Letang has been prone to defensive lapses throughout his career, even at the peak of his abilities. In recent years, there has been a general decline in his defensive performance, partly due to aging and partly because the Penguins have overused and overextended him, especially since the arrival of Karlsson. Some might think that Karlsson’s addition would reduce some of the pressure on Letang. However, in reality, it changed his role, expecting him to be more of a defensive defenseman, which doesn’t suit his skill set, particularly given his age.
So, what can Penguins fans expect from Letang? Well, it’s fair to wonder how far north of 20 minutes per game he can play on a nightly basis. The 38-year-old has been a workhorse throughout his career, but given his age, health, and declining skills, he shouldn’t be playing as often as he currently does. He will undoubtedly try to condition himself to reach those minutes, but if the Penguins want to get the most out of Letang, they need to ease his workload. Letang probably wouldn’t love a reduced role, but if he wants to extend his career and make a greater impact, he might need to delegate some responsibilities to other members of the Penguins’ defense core.
The Penguins lack a strong defensive core; in fact, it might be the weakest in the entire league. However, they do have considerable depth on the right side, having acquired Connor Clifton and Matt Dumba this summer, and drafting Harrison Brunicke last year, who could be ready for the NHL. Now, none of those players can replace Letang when he is at his best, but Letang’s prime is behind him now, and it’s fair to wonder if any of those men can replace a worn-out Letang in part when exhaustion catches up to him.
There are some signs that Letang could bounce back. He still trains harder than perhaps anyone in the NHL and can skate well, logging significant minutes. How effective those minutes will be remains to be seen, but Letang can handle a decent amount of ice time. His speed should continue to help him be a major part of Pittsburgh’s transition game, especially if he spends a lot of time with the Penguins’ top line of Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell. Letang also remains an excellent passer and should continue to produce offense, even if other aspects of his game are more limited.
There will be challenges with Letang, and they are the same concerns the Penguins have faced in recent years. Letang has missed numerous games throughout his career due to illness and injury. There is always a risk that he could suffer another injury and miss significant time again. The Penguins have no direct replacement for Letang and need to have him in the lineup if they hope to be even average in the Eastern Conference.
Letang’s on-ice play has also become a concern as it has declined and he no longer shows the same consistency he demonstrated earlier in his career. This is expected, but since he has three years remaining on his contract, Pittsburgh is likely hoping he can improve his play again for at least another year or two. At the end of the day, Letang will be valuable to Pittsburgh. His hockey IQ should help mentor some of the younger players that the team will use this season, much like Sergei Gonchar mentored Letang early in his career. However, if Letang can adjust his game to his new reality and skill set, he could make the necessary changes to extend his career and remain in the Penguins’ top six for the next year or two. Letang has faced tough years before, battling major health hurdles, and he has always found a way to bounce back; however, this will be his biggest challenge yet.
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Assessing The Options For Marc-Edouard Vlasic
There was a time, a decade ago, when former San Jose Sharks defenseman Marc-Édouard Vlasic was considered the most reliable and underpaid player in the NHL. Vlasic was earning $4.25MM in each year at the end of his five-year contract with the Sharks and had significantly outperformed his salary throughout his career.
That was until he signed a massive eight-year, $56MM contract in the summer of 2017, which completely altered the perception of the respected stay-at-home defender. The 38-year-old was bought out earlier this summer and hasn’t been much talked about in free agency, which isn’t surprising given his age and limited success in recent years. Vlasic has been playing below replacement level lately and struggled to stay in the lineup last year, being a healthy scratch at times and dealing with some injuries. All of this raises the question: what’s next for Vlasic?
Vlasic has publicly stated that he plans to play in the NHL this season, which is the goal of any professional hockey player. However, for him, that aspiration might not be realized given that he hasn’t been a consistent contributor since the 2017-18 season. Unfortunately, for both Vlasic and especially for the Sharks, his $7MM cap hit began during the 2018-19 season, coinciding with his decline. Vlasic’s performance significantly dropped from 2018 to 2020 and never recovered afterward. In fact, his poor play negatively affected star defensemen Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson, who both saw their numbers decline considerably when paired with Vlasic.
Vlasic’s salary, combined with his decline, played a significant role in the Sharks’ window of contention closing, as the flat salary cap worsened their cap struggles, along with Vlasic carrying arguably the worst contract in the league. Remarkably, Vlasic earned his contract extension after being one of, if not the top, defensive contributors in the NHL, while being vastly underpaid. However, for the Sharks, they signed the contract extension with Vlasic at precisely the wrong time.
So why does all of that matter if Vlasic no longer earns a big salary and can be signed for league minimum? Firstly, there are better defensive options still available in free agency who could have a more positive impact than Vlasic. Calvin de Haan could be signed cheaply, and he is four years younger and much more productive. Matt Grzelcyk is another player with a different style of game who posted 40 points last year. There are plenty of better options still available who haven’t signed with a team yet, including T.J. Brodie, and Ryan Suter. Even Brendan Smith and Oliver Kylington are better options at this point than Vlasic, and they’ve had to accept PTOs.
The second reason it matters is that if you are a contender, you wouldn’t be signing a player like Vlasic, with his current ability, to play NHL minutes for your team. Even as a seventh defenseman, you have more talented players available at this stage. On the other hand, if you are a rebuilding team like the Pittsburgh Penguins, you have young, gifted players you want to get ice time for and can’t afford to bring in a veteran who is no longer effective. The Penguins are an interesting case because they arguably have the worst defensive core in the NHL, and some might say that if they signed Vlasic, he would be their 15th-best option. That shows how far Vlasic’s game has declined over the past seven years; he could barely make the AHL on a team that is $13MM under the salary cap and has a weak defensive unit.
Vlasic’s chances of signing an NHL deal are slim, but it’s not impossible. NHL general managers often like to give a shot to an aging veteran who has had a solid career, and that would describe Vlasic perfectly. Older defensemen received multi-year contracts worth over $4MM this summer, so an NHL deal for Vlasic would be surprising but not entirely out of the question. The more probable scenario is that Vlasic gets an opportunity to demonstrate what he still has in the tank through a PTO. This would provide him with some practice time and potentially a chance to showcase himself in a few exhibition games, with the hope of securing an NHL contract or at least a two-way deal. It’s uncertain whether Vlasic would want that at this stage of his career, as some NHL players prefer not to ride the AHL buses anymore after a long NHL career, given family commitments. But only Vlasic knows what he truly desires.
Apart from a PTO or a two-way deal, there are plenty of options to find a job. He could explore the KHL, SHL, or other European leagues that might offer the chance to play every game. Still, family matters and lifestyle preferences will influence whether Vlasic chooses to take his game overseas. It’s rare to see a North American-born player who has earned the kind of money Vlasic has, make the move overseas after the age of 35, but it’s not unheard of.
Finally, there’s the final consideration: retiring and starting his post-hockey career, which is always challenging for any player, especially those who feel they have more to give. Vlasic may believe he can still contribute at the NHL level and might get a chance to prove it if he signs a PTO. However, at this stage, it could be the end of the line for a player who was once arguably the best stay-at-home defenseman in the league. Vlasic should have financial stability in his post-playing career, but he could no doubt find other ways to build a career in the game, thanks to his leadership experience and hockey IQ.
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What Will The Islanders Be This Season?
The New York Islanders finished a disappointing 2024-25 season on a positive note by winning the NHL Draft Lottery. They were able to draft defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the first overall pick. This turned what could have been a lost season into an offseason filled with optimism, as Islanders fans hope that newly appointed general manager Mathieu Darche can quickly retool an aging roster and avoid a complete rebuild. Expectations for the 2025-26 season are more subdued, but with a likely weak Metropolitan Division, the Islanders might surprise some if things go their way this season.
When you say things go right for the Islanders, it starts with overall team health. Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Anthony Duclair and Adam Pelech have all dealt with serious injuries in recent years, and if that continues into the 2025-26 season, it will be a long one for the Islanders and their fans. Last season was a particularly difficult one on the injury front, and there are no guarantees that this season will be any different. Obviously, the Islanders hope it will be, and if they do, they have a high-reward roster, particularly in the players mentioned earlier.
NHL.com projects both Horvat and Barzal to surpass 65 points, which is reasonable since both players have maintained that range consistently over the past decade. Horvat is expected to reach 65 points after recording 57 points last season in 81 games (28 goals and 29 assists). Horvat has exceeded 50 points in seven of the past nine years and is likely to do so again unless he suffers a serious injury.
Barzal, on the other hand, is recovering from a frustrating year last season, when he scored just six goals and 14 assists in 30 games. He has reached the 80-point mark twice in his career and has recorded 50 points in six of the last eight years. He is projected for 67 points, which would be a solid rebound for the 28-year-old.
One other forward who will be looking to turn the page on last season is Duclair. The 30-year-old was brought in to be a fixture in the Islanders’ top six, but hardly delivered with only seven goals and four assists in 44 games. By the end of the season, he was being left out of the lineup, which is hardly what he or New York were hoping for when he signed a four-year, $14MM contract on July 1st, 2024. Duclair eventually took a leave of absence in early April after his struggles on the ice and recently spoke about it, saying he is excited to play next season and looking forward to bouncing back. For Duclair, it wouldn’t be the first time he’s had to rebound from a tough season, as his career has seen its share of ups and downs. Duclair was non-tendered by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2018 as a 22-year-old after a couple of trades and disappointing results. He later signed for the league minimum with Columbus and managed to turn around his fortunes in Ottawa before breaking out with the Florida Panthers. Duclair has played for eight NHL teams and will surely be motivated next season to improve his game.
Speaking of a turnaround, many might argue that the Islanders want more for their netminder, Ilya Sorokin, but it’s hard to blame him for last season’s disappointing outcome. Sorokin was quite good for New York, and although his traditional stats declined with a career low save % of .907, his underlying numbers stayed strong as he posted a +17.4 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck). The 30-year-old goaltender has been a workhorse for the Islanders, playing in over 50 games each of the past four seasons, but it isn’t fair to expect him to perform at his 2022-23 level every year. Sorokin remains a top netminder in the league, and if the Islanders can provide him with some offensive support, they should be alright.
Finally, we return to Schaefer and what to expect from this year’s first overall pick. Islanders management hopes and believes that Schaefer could become the player who defines the Islanders for the next two decades, and there is good reason for that. However, whether he will start making a significant impact remains to be seen. Schaefer will undoubtedly receive a lengthy look in the preseason, and management will almost certainly be seeking a spark from the talented youngster as they try to ignite a blueline that was ravaged by injuries last season and lost their top d-man, Noah Dobson, in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens. With Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Alexander Romanov all returning, the Islanders have room for Schaefer, and he could be the piece that unlocks their path back to the playoffs.
It’s also possible that Islanders management decides that another year in the OHL is the best course of action for Schaefer, but that will almost certainly follow a lengthy assessment period and possibly a regular-season audition.
Overall, the Islanders enter this season with cautious optimism. They aren’t a Stanley Cup contender, and they’ve approached the summer as such, trading away a top defenseman while making low-risk signings like forward Jonathan Drouin to bolster their depth. They are right in the middle of a retool, injecting youth into their lineup while keeping many of their veterans and even adding a couple. If things go their way, they could find themselves among the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference come April. However, if the veterans who struggled last year don’t bounce back and injuries pile up again, they might end up with a similar result to this season, but without the prize at the end of the road.
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